The Russian command decided to remove its troops in the Kherson region from the right bank of the Dnieper.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not look happy when he gave the order. He knows that another such setback will cost him his job.
bigger
That alone will have consequences. The Ukrainians, the Biden administration and the European supporter of Ukraine will be emboldened by this. The support in Russia for the war will shrink. Some people in Russia will start to call for President Putin’s head. There is no danger though that they will get it.
This move is operationally sound.
From the military point of view there is little chance to withstand a serious attack in the region as the resupply across the Dnieper river is very difficult and can not be guaranteed. Moreover the possible breach of the Dnieper river dams would make any resupply impossible for at least a week or even longer. That would be enough time for the Ukrainians to slaughter whatever number of Russian troops were left behind.
Strategically the move is bad.
It closes for now the possibility of moving into Nikolaev (Mykolaiv) and further towards Odessa. This could have and should have been done earlier. But the Russian commanded did not commit sufficient forces for that fight. There were also sound reason for not doing that. Now it is too late to criticize those decisions.
It is quite possible that, behind the scene, a deal has been made over this. If one was made we are unlikely to learn of it anytime soon.
The priorities now should be to get the soldiers and equipment out of the area. It will require intense air defense coverage to prevent the close down of ferry points by Ukrainian artillery. There is no reason to make it easy for the Ukraine to regain the area. Until the evacuation is done any significant Ukrainian move into the area should be responded to with effective artillery fire.
Soon the Ukrainian army will start to move troops prepared for an attack in Kherson to other front lines. Russia must likewise move its troops to reinforce its positions elsewhere.
Morale requires that the next Russian move has to be big push with strategic significance. The concept of deep battle and deep operations should be reapplied. Historically it has nearly always worked to Russia’s advantage.
But the big push does not need to be solely militarily. A further significant damage of Ukraine’s economy via its electricity network is an additional option. To severely interdict its supply lines from the west is another one.
We need to look at the big picture.
The world is moving away from a unilateral ‘western’ led model towards a new multilateral future. By waging war in Ukraine Russia initiated and accelerated this historic change. In sight of that the pullback from Kherson is just a minor tactical loss. It can and likely will be rectified by moves happening elsewhere.
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Hopefully, that was sarcasm. Otherwise, I must conclude that MoA has gone Full Retard.
EVERY war has setbacks! There is no fucking need to P**A**N**I**C!!!
Jeebus Aitch Kristmas!!! The Russians lost 264,000 soldiers in just 6 weeks during the WWII Battle Of Kursk, another 55,000 in Operation Citadel, and so on and so on … for a total of 25 MILLION!! Imagine today’s fuktard armchair warriors reporting on that war for 4 years; ==> “HoLeeFuk, we’re LOSING!!”, HoLeeFuk, we’re LOSING!!”, HoLeeFuk, we’re LOSING!!” ….
… and then at the very end ===> “Ho Lee Shit! We WON!!!
It could be Rus intel knows a Banderite dirty-nuke false flag is about to happen in that area. Else, high probability that Shoigu is having to deeply adjust their once workable maneuver warfare/cauldron strategy since ZATO/NWO-PMC reinforcements have arrived Syria-style with the tattered remains of the “free” west’s economies as their blank check to squander on being completely unreasonable masters of disaster.
As an out-of-the-loop guess, I would say Putin will get a defensive configuration and wait for the major Rus/Uke border or Crimean winter incursion that dummkopfs just can’t resist before unleashing a state-of-the-art ass kicking to western decision centers.
By design, neocon pursuit of ancient Zealotry is going to cost the 1st world (except the butchering pharisites) all it holds dear.
btw- lovable ‘B’ (Bernhard) at Moon let a lot of people down when he came out as pro-vaxx19 awhile back. I’d been a regular there for a long time but no more. Done with “Alles war fur ihre Sicherheit,” nonsense.
Fools rush in and always trample one another on the way out.
Putin will finish off the Ukrainian army as they re-enter these vacated areas, supply lines too long and vulnerable. Sooner the better, make then say uncle and agree to the relinquish the ethnic Russian areas.
“It is quite possible that, behind the scene, a deal has been made over this. If one was made we are unlikely to learn of it anytime soon.”
Egads! is it even REMOTELY possible?
You’re missing that before pulling out, Russians mined the entire area and have created a kill zone for Ukraines stupid enough to march into the area.
Read the short thread. It’s only a few tweets and while everything we think is only speculation, this makes sense.
Helpful link, thanks MC.
More bullshit.
Putin has all the time he needs, while especially the Europeans don’t.
This is clearly a maneuver to slow things down, while disallowing the Western propaganda spin ‘oh the Russian army is so invincible, we need to send more weapons’ to escalate further.
The Russians have enough missiles to win this all easily.
This article, When people walk up to my place I have a nice path I want them to take. It’s kind of like that.
The Battle of North Anna River was where Robert E Lee attempted to lure Grant to try to cross, happened right after Spotsylvania. Sounds about the same. Get them separated from their supply lines and stuck between the river and dug in troops.
Rivers often run higher during winter months.
If it was Ukraine vs America weed already have won!!! MAGA!!!
The war that Russia initiated? You is joking right?
When I lived on a wheat farm it was a yearly thing to watch, as the temperature dropped in Winter, the field vermin would come in out of the open and infest anything that protected them from the cold wind and snow.
Kherson is the farm outbuildings and anywhere west is open plain. This is why the Ukrainian’s are uneasy for they remember the Mariupol entrapment.
Also if an attack should come from the Northwest and reinforcement were called from Kherson it would be a highway of death in the open and in the snow.
I think this is a wise and thoughtful “retreat” that must have been a very difficult decision to call.
Let us turn to the next chapter.