Guest Post by David Stockman
Which part of the graph below do the GOP border warriors not understand? To wit, after growing by 1.9% per annum between 1972 and 2008, the growth rate of the prime-age US labor force (age 25-54) has decelerated to, well, 0.03% during the last 14 years.
Prime Age Civilian Labor Force, 1972 to 2022
At the same time, you do not need to be an economic historian to recognize that fully half of the GDP growth during modern times has been due to more workers and more labor hours supplied to the economy. So if labor supply growth has gone to zero on a long-term trend basis—and is actually shrinking as per below—where in the world is 4%, 3% or even 2% annual real GDP growth to come from?
Obviously, the only other source of economic growth in the great scheme of things is productivity gains. But during the 12-years since 2010 the productivity growth rate clocked in at just 1.13% per annum. So if that’s all there is and there ain’t no more when it comes to the core, two-part economic growth equation, what lies ahead is pretty miniscule gains in real GDP.
In turn, that begs the obvious big time societal question. There will be 100 million US retirees within a few decades, as the Baby Boom gets fully put out to pasture. So how in the world are they to be supported at anything near existing pay-as-you-go based Social Security, Medicare and other transfer benefit levels by an anemic GDP growth rate—one squeezed by a shrinking labor force on one side and the current, tepid levels of productivity growth, on the other?
The answer, of course, is no can do. But for avoidance of doubt, here is the growth of hours worked in the nonfarm economy versus real GDP for the period 1964 through 2007. Total hours worked grew from 112.6 billion to 236.0 billion during that 43-year period or by 1.74% per annum.
As it happened, real GDP rose by 3.27% annum during the same period. Accordingly, the input of labor hours accounted for 53% of total real GDP growth during the better part of America’s post-war prosperity.
Owing to the demographics already baked-into-the-cake, however, the black area of the chart below is slated to shrink progressively for several decades to come. Well, unless Washington finally wakes up to the demographic facts of life and the law of supply-and-demand, and follows a scheme that Robert Kennedy Jr. aptly describes as a “secure border with a wide gate”.
That is, a safe and orderly entry portal for willing workers wishing to participate in a large-scale Guest Worker program. And one that would allow them to eventually earn their citizenship by consistent contribution to the American economy over 5-10 years and faithful observance of US law in the interim.
Labor Hours Growth Versus Total Real GDP Growth, 1964 to 2007
Then again, perhaps the busy statesmen of Capitol Hill have lost track of where babies come from and how long it takes to make a prime age worker from the point of conception. The well-known fact, of course, is that lifetime fertility rates of native-born women have been falling for decades, but since 2008 alone the rate has dropped from 2.07 to only 1.69 in 2019. That’s far, far below the 2.1% replacement rate.
Even when you add-in the current 2.02 fertility rate for immigrant women the total US rate in 2019 was just 1.76.
So the math is unequivocal: Without new, substantial immigration, the US working age population will be shrinking as far as the eye can see.
For instance, the birth rate of the entire US population–native born and immigrant alike—has fallen by 17% just since 2007. So what would have been 4.6 million new births (black line) at the 2007 birth rate had plunged to just 3.8 million (red line) actual births by 2018. Thirty-years hence, therefore, the prime age workers cohort aged 30-41 years will be 5.7 million smaller than would have been the case at the 2007 birth rates. And self-evidently, the gap will continue to widen ever more rapidly with the passage of time.
Impact of Tepid US Birth Rates
Accordingly, the GOP’s border closure policies are dead wrong. What America actually needs during the years ahead is a dramatic step-up in the level of working-age immigrants, not their arrest and deportation.
Working Age Population 25-64 Years, 1965 to 2035
Moreover, the falling dotted line after 2015 in the above chart would have been even worse absent prior decades of immigration. Accordingly, just 128 million (74%) of the 173 million prime-age worker cohort shown above for 2015 were born here since 1965 to American-born parents. And that figure would drop to just 120 million or to 66% of the 183 million persons projected for this cohort by 2035.
That is to say, based on the non-immigrant population as of 1965 the prime age US workforce would shrink by 6.5% through the middle of the next decade alone.
In short, two generations of immigrants, past and projected, account for the difference between a 2035 US workforce of 183 million per the graph above versus the 120 million that would have resulted from just American-born workers born to American-born parents. That 63 million difference accounted for by recent past and projected immigrants amounts to fully one-third of the estimated 2035 labor force.
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Don’t let uni-party get away with word games. Its not ” Immigration Reform ” , make them call it what it really is !
Nope.
That is a conquered country.
TPTB pretty much poisoned most of the previous residents, and these are the replacements.
Pretty simple.
USA for whites is passe.
You have been living in some kind of illusion/delusion if you think this was ever a white only country. Where I grew up it was half Hispanic my whole time growing up. From Texas traveling East there are plenty of blacks also. One good thing here out west is that there are no Jews locally. Just the ones controlling everything from far away. I’ve never been into talking about Jews but the other day I was chatting with someone and just told them to look up who controls the banks and just about everything.
and for them to draw their own conclusions. Now we help them commit genocide.
“Murica” was a creation of predominantly white western European stock imbued with Grecco/ Christian worldview/philos underpinnings . But then again” Mehico ” and many parts central and southern we’re also shaped in no small by the same so ? “Conquistidor your stallion stands in need of company , and like some angels haloed brow , you reek of purity “: Procol Harum, 1967
22 million? off by about 2/3 …
What Stockman is missing is the following. If we need immigration to contribute to the labor force, we need PRODUCTIVE immigrants, not parasitic invaders only interested in free handouts from the US gov’t, and just being a drain on our economy instead of contributing to it.
Plus, we absolutely don’t need to import a labor force. We need to train one. Remember apprenticeship? Trade school? Real courses in real subjects for real remuneration at real university? Public schools teaching the three R’s, not tranny, racism, etc.?
They killed this crop of youth without sending them to war.
Key point many don’t know. Vaxx researcher Ed Dowd said Gen Y + Z lost 60 , 000 in 1 to 2 years as opposed to the same number over 10 years of Vietnam !
You know , backin the day, my pops and his brother worked the grain silos of Eastern Washing,ton during summer vacation from school . Both went on to get actual real PHD degree’s in engineering . I myself and all my buddies, white boysall , picked brush , berries and dragged Christmas trees out of the soaking ass wet forest . It wasn’t beneath us , but rather the beginnings of our educations in the freakin REALITY of the physical world we all occupy .Would love love love to see these pampered little brainwashed brats do a bit of toiling for their own damn good ( character development ) . Sure ,child labor laws have there sweet spot too , beyond which point they begin to deliver diminishing returns as well .
Same jackass assumption that population must always grow and that a shrinking population, in and of itself, is a horror to be avoided at any cost.
This time based on the equally jackass assumption that GDP (a jackass metric in its own right) absolutely must grow at, at least, 2% each and every year— even as population shrinks. If the population shrinks, who’s going to be consuming all that “production”?
The solution is not too hard to identify, but it will take time and lots of brass balls. Deport all illegals-pick your number-and don’t worry if some are not “illegal”, as that definition is fluid in strange ways. If Stockman is right, the economy quits expanding. Maybe even have a recession or two. Hard times? Most likely. But, here’s the clincher: the tried and true “supply and demand” takes over. Supply is intentionally lowered and demand takes center stage, but only for those who are productive. Twenty two year old mamas boy sitting on his ass complaining that his iPhone no longer works? Tough shit. The smarter ones will see the opportunities, just like cockroaches always find the bread crumbs. It’s called a turnaround. Won’t be pain free, will take time, but it will work. It’s sort of like the concept of boot camp: send chubby, pussified young “men”, beat the crap out of them, teach them discipline, toughen them up, and watch things turn around. Yeah, I know: sounds a lot like “building a beautiful wall” to save the country. Who do we have to take charge and make it happen?
Even though I posted below that productivity is in fact obviously important ( essentially real productivity would be a measure of the citizenry’s relative merit , I also agree with you . There seems always to be a sweetspot in things , more and “morerer ” beyond certain thresholds doesn’t equal better and” betterer “. ” just right ” is where we want to be , where more really doesn’t improve . I don’t like it when my old lady tries to ” improve”on some recipe of hers that I love for instance( no honey adding to it didn’t make it better ), or packing the right amount of studs on the site ( trying to pack too many actually slows the process , find the right amount ,no more , no less ) , the Laffer curve , what is the optimum size of an elephant ?, the best cubic inch displacement for an ICE on a given size and use of a given automobile , the correct philosophy for how man is to conduct himself and interact with his fellow human beings ( I think the verdict on that one has been in for quite some time and tinkering with it wont/ hasnt improved things , quite the opposite actually ) everything , beyond a certain point starts to reach a point of diminishing returns. And yet we have so called ” progressives” who seem to believe stupidly and naively that there is some never ending arc of improvement to be had in endlessly screwing and fiddling , adding to, altering all things in perpetuity.
Whatever , I’m a crazy bastard and I’m sure pretty much everyone has figured that out . Progress is possible , but a lot of it might actually consist of making a u-turn and getting back to something sane and proportional to that aforementioned “sweetspot “. “Proportionality ?” Oh man , my mind just went down another freakin rabbit hole of golden ratios and fibbanacci sequences and so on that could be used to illustrate the point I am trying to make but I will spare you . Nuff said .
how to destroy the traditional nuclear 2+ baby family
1. debase the currency – increase the cost of providing for a family
2. off shore jobs – decrease the financial means necessary to provide for a family
3. push women into the workforce to supplement family economic deficits – no time for babies
3. run up 10 trillion war debt to further debase the currency, cost of money and increase citizen tax burden
4. use government welfare funding (unpayable debt) to fracture (divide and conquer) reliance on intra family relationships
5. import millions of illegal, economic migrants to overburden government services, leach tax receipts and destabilize familial cultural norms
Check , check ,check , check and done .
Trump’s first term was hobbled by the establishment goons that still populated the bureaucracy and the ones he hired. A glimmer of hope for his second term is that no “respectable” person (aka weak-kneed Quisling) will be willing to work for him this time, lest they be cancelled, pilloried and possibly imprisoned. So his administration will be a bunch of zealots. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s a small step in the right direction.
Tom Peters, speaking on organizational development, claimed that groups that needed massive creativity to succeed, best get on board just enough “mono-maniacs” to keep things always sizzling and moving forward at the speed of light. Call ’em super-charged zealots if you want.
If Trumpy is to succeed he will need an oversize broom to sweep out all the deadwood in record time and do it before they know what hit them. He may even need to be dictator for 2 days.
What a crock of BS. the birth rate is down because of the evil actions of our government breaking up the traditional family and making it so younger couples can barely afford an apartment not even consider the expense of having children. Then you’ve got no fault divorce making it so most young men don’t want to get married, why would they just to get fleeced. Quit importing half skilled labor and get the worthless government out of our lives and the country will do just fine without the third worlds ash and trash.
BULLSHIT.
NO VACANCY! We’re full. And the ones here illegally need to be rounded up and thrown the fuck out.
Is “GDP” more important than culture?
To these people G.R.E.E.D. is the most important thing.
GDP is important only for those who buy votes and otherwise are parasites.
GDP should and would be important because productive activity is hella important . Problem is so much of our GDP is based on ones and zero’s / binary code on computers and doesn’t really exist tangibly anywhere in the physical world as a measure of any kind of actual commodity but rather interest acrued on debt, digitally created fiat and various other instruments of arbitrage and usury (just clever grifts ).
In short , our GDP is no small part ” fake and gay ” .
Related:
.
The ‘ great taking ‘ isn’t about just $$$$ money , its culture.
The dismantling of the West, and thereby, modernity. Davos will preside over a techno-feudalist manor, called Earth. . . . with the half-billion serfs who remain after 95% depop.
Look at it on the bright side: Pedo Joe may decide to move to Wales permanently, a place where he can hire all the babysitters he wants. The hinterlands of Wales are really quite nice, green, and usually quiet.
Where uSA is:
And I saw an angel standing in the sun; and he cried with a loud voice, saying to all the fowls that fly in the midst of heaven, Come and gather yourselves together unto the supper of the great God;
18 That ye may eat the flesh of kings, and the flesh of captains, and the flesh of mighty men, and the flesh of horses, and of them that sit on them, and the flesh of all men, both free and bond, both small and great.
___
Do not trust in nobles, in a son of man, who cannot save.
Considering the US’s manufacturing base has been sold off, what exactly does this guy think the youth are going to do for work that pays a livable wage?
My son is working on becoming a plumber. Many here on TBP are from the east coast and compared to what it’s like where I live it’s another planet, a bad one. Being close to California I can spot those Californians by the masks they still wear. Have some hope, not all of today’s yoots are useless. Plenty of good people where I live. Then again I have met lots of nice folks when traveling/delivering in the east. then I was happy to get away to the wide open spaces.
Survival of the fittest will count for a lot when SHTF.
Has he mastered the art of his buttcrack showing when he is in the prone position with pipe wrench in hand yet ? This is really critical to any plumber , that and oh yeah ” shit runs down hill ” too.
Kidding , just a little inter trade trash talk . Good on your son for making the decision of learning to actually DO SOMETHING NECCASSARY (!!!!) turd chasin is a fine avocation …
This asshole must have missed the reports that show that 59% of illegal aliens are on public subsistence — often for generations … and even 32% of legal immigrations are on public subsistence for at least one or 2 generations.
Furthermore, these invaders aren’t making $100K per year … and, like generations of wetbacks before them, aren’t paying income taxes or payroll taxes … they’re getting that $461 Billion net cost to US Citizens and Taxpayers handed to them tax free … year in and year out.
Send back all of the H1B folks, too … they’ve done nothing but take jobs from US Citizens and work at lower wages … and, thanks to their incessant whining, now their entire families can join the work force in the US and put even more US Citizens out of jobs — plus, in the end, they’re virtually guaranteed citizenship and all that that entails … chain migration being the biggest benefit to them and their ‘families’ that they bring over here
Globalist hogwash!heard this same schtick forty years ago!….
Screw them and screw you!…
Of course productivity and and gdp are down with No Manufacturing base for even the smallest things.
Washington doesn’t care and your pleas are disingenuous
It is about destroying the White race and the American ideal and you sound like their cheerleader!
C’mon man,wake up…..
Pursuing 3% annual growth is suicide and I think time has proven it,where you going to go from here?…..
Cuckservatives for the win.
Maybe we should be considering the death of SS, instead? It was a Ponzi Scheme from day 1, so maybe now that we’re at the wall we ought to look for a solution?
Maybe we need to take into account that same Boomer generation holds the vast majority of America’s wealth, as well.
The last thing America needs is guest workers. We would also save a massive amount of wasted tax dollars if we excluded illegals from all social benefits and started shipping them back where they belong.
America should be run like a hot, exclusive nightclub where there’s a loooong line to get in and the bouncers only let in the best.