HERE’S MY FIRST “Letter from South Africa” – If you want to know what could happen in 2024 – read on. No, I don’t have a crystal ball, but I do have critical thinking skills and the runes are obvious once you’ve cast aside the Kool-Aid.
“Once committed to a way of life, a man puts the greatest strength in the world behind him. It’s something called ‘heart-power’ and nothing will stop him short of success.” [Vince Lombardi]
- Prediction 1 – 2024 – There will be supply chain uncertainty and oil-price volatility
- Prediction 2 – 2024 – The globalists are desperate to regain trust; their: Game-plan
- Prediction 3 – 2024 – Gene Therapy will advance on the road to Synthetic Biology
The Fourth Turning (Crisis) – A crisis starts with a sudden and startling catalyst [aka, Black Swan.] As society becomes more threatened by an existential problem, the survival and success of society becomes the simple imperative. Society achieves a “regeneracy” which drives people to reunify toward a concerted national effort. People support greater public authority, and the perceived successes of these public policies justify more interventions.
“What makes a Crisis special is the public’s willingness to let leaders lead, even when they falter, and to let authorities be authoritative even when they make mistakes. Amid this civic solidarity, mediocre leaders can gain immense popular following; bad policies can be made to work (or, at least, be perceived as working); and, as at Pearl Harbour, even a spectacular failure does not undermine public support.”
Crises can involve economic distress, social distress, ecological distress, political distress, technological distress, and military distress. They typically involve wars, which are fought until there is a clear and decisive conclusion. Eventually, the public mood becomes exhaustion, relief, and optimism. The populace yearns for the things they took for granted. Crises end with a climax and a resolution. This can be either triumphant or tragic, and it leads to a new civic order.
Previous Fourth Turnings include the War of the Roses (1459-1487), the Armada Crisis (1569-1594), the Glorious Revolution (1675-1704), the American Revolution (1773-1794), the Civil War (1860-1865), the Great Depression, and World War II (1929-1945). Howe and Strauss sum up the mood of the nation in each of the turnings:
“In a High, people want to belong; in an Awakening, to defy; in an Unravelling, to separate; in a Crisis, to gather.” Thus now we need to prepare for our current Fourth Turning.
A knowledge of cyclical time can help, not only to accept the natural rhythm of history, but make the best of the ‘turnings’. Perhaps the most important area in which to do this is through preparation for the Fourth Turning (Crisis). Strauss & Howe suggest we use cyclicality to our advantage through three core approaches:
- Participate in seasonal activities. While the social environment is safe and technology thriving, we should embrace the positive creative aspects of these seasons. While the economy offers vast arrays of things to consume, we should enjoy and harness what we can. These things become less abundant in Fourth Turnings.
- Avoid post-seasonal habits. Act your age and run with the spirit of the current cycle, not the last.
- Make pre-seasonal preparations. Prepare in advance for the next cycle, particularly the Fourth Turning [more on this below].
To prepare for a Fourth Turning, we must ready institutions and ourselves for the ‘collective spirit’. Institutions should shift their focus towards cultivating pragmatic alliances and fostering a culture of community spirit in advance of any crisis. They should encourage community participation, particularly for young people, treating the children of the Unravelling Period as a top priority.
The economy should also be put on the best pre-crisis footing. Policymakers should seek to balance the books, and if possible, run a budget surplus. Governments should invest in advance in defence, preparing for a large-scale war in advance, ensuring diverse defensive capabilities at scale.
To ready ourselves for the Fourth Turning, we should focus on community and practical preparations: “Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts for several years. Think about your needs, who could help, and why your fate might matter to anybody else other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter.”
We should expect our community reputation to matter more. As a result, we should focus on forging strong local relationships, involving ourselves in community affairs. Ideally, we should build face-to-face contacts with people (neighbours, bosses, suppliers, police, etc.). We should also move towards social and business structures that involve bringing people together. “Stress less what sets you apart as an individual, and more what you have in common with others.”
Finally, we must build a financial safety net by practicing good financial habits. It is critical to diversify skills and income sources ahead of a Fourth Turning. We should assume the worst-case scenario that all government safety nets are eliminated, entering the crisis with reliable cashflow, diversified savings, and liquid assets. “If you are starting a career now, realise that generalists, with survival know-how, will have the edge over specialists whose skills are useful only in an undamaged environment.”
We have today two major wars, an indicted former US president, and a demented current US president going into 2024 which will be even more challenging than 2023. I believe that China, US/UK/EU, and Japan will all fall into serious recession during 2024 which will lead to an ongoing depression for the rest of the cycle. The EU and UK are already in recession (but as yet not acknowledged); thus a rare global recession may well appear during 2024.
“End-of-the-world doomsday predictions are a dime a dozen these days but Harry Dent, of the HS Dent Investment Management firm, is pretty sure that 2024 will finally be the year that the over-inflated United States bubble markets collapse. According to Harry Dent, who appeared on Fox Business this week to discuss his predictions for 2024, the money printing madness that has been occurring since 2009 will eventually take its toll like never before in history.”
Goldman Sachs begs to differ and is predicting new all-time highs for the markets next year. The banking giant’s 2024 predictions for the S&P 500 are an eight percent increase to 5,100. Place your bets!
Of the two wars, in Ukraine I forecast that Putin will not de-escalate, because he’s winning, after the disastrous 2023 failed Kyiv counter-offensive, and the US cannot de-escalate because they are led by a pack of warmongers with a high risk of a nuclear stand-off prevailing throughout the year.
In Israel and Gaza, Israel faces an enemy far more powerful than Hamas. Hezbollah is located in Lebanon on Israel’s northern border and is funded by Iran with money, weapons and intelligence. Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles into Israel. The Houthis are a direct Iranian proxy who also threaten Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.
If Hezbollah and Houthi attacks escalate there is a risk of Israel launching an assault directly on Iran itself, thus getting to the root of the conflict. Iran would almost certainly respond with missiles directed at Israel as well as closing the Straits of Hormuz. If this escalation scenario occurs, then expect oil prices to rise over $150 per barrel. This will cause a serious recession in America and Western Europe which may be worse than 2008 or even the oil shock in 1974.
The above predictions involve turmoil either in domestic US politics, international macroeconomics, escalating wars or a potential financial meltdown starting in the banking system. With that as background, my market predictions are fairly straightforward and coincide with Doug Casey at International Man:
- 2024 will be a difficult year for stocks. The market could decline by 30% on recession alone and even 50% if either the Ukraine or Israeli war escalate, or a global Financial/Debt crisis emerges.
- The major sectors that will outperform, even in a falling market, are energy, defence, agriculture, and mining.
- 2024 should be an excellent year for US government securities. All maturities will produce reasonable yields and capital gains as interest rates decline going into a recession.
- Basic commodities such as copper, iron ore, coal, non-precious metals and agricultural produce will generally decline as a recession unfolds. Uranium, gold, and silver should perform well based on declining interest rates and a flight to quality.
- Energy will be volatile. It will tend to fall, based on economic weakness, but rally on geopolitical fears.
The investment choices are clear. It will be a bad year for stocks, a good year for Treasury securities and a down year for commodities, except for energy, uranium, and gold. The winners will be Treasuries, gold, oil, uranium, and King Dollar. Sources
- THE COMING FAKE CRISIS – 2024 WILL BE A FATEFUL YEAR. Buckle up, 2024 is going to be a fateful year for everyone. https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/12/18/the-coming-fake-crisis-2024-will-be-a-fateful-year/ A couple of key points to take away from this article. Again, it shows the entire global financial system began to fail in September 2019. The Fed and other central bank co-conspirators across the world decided the only way to keep the failing financial system from collapsing was to begin money printing at warp-speed. But they needed an excuse to do so. And that was the global Covid lockdown.
- Democracy – the Illusion of Liberty – when will ‘The People’ wake up to the NWO and their attack upon us? https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/12/18/democracy-the-illusion-of-liberty/
Brighteon Covers “The Great Taking” https://rubino.substack.com/p/brighteon-covers-the-great-taking?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=webSTOP PRESS – Beautiful South Africa
AND don’t believe the hype about Load-shedding! The impact of load-shedding on the South African economy will be negligible by 2025 due to the private sector’s rapid uptake of alternative energy sources, adding 6,000 MW to the grid by the end of 2025. Consider the rapid growth of private power generation through rooftop solar and commercial projects. This has increased the economy’s resilience and reduced the impact of load-shedding on economic output.
NEWS FLASH – Landfill Economies
All African countries must introduce waste reduction, reuse, recycling, and energy recovery, promoting public health, reducing greenhouse gases, and supporting a green, circular economy. Sub-Saharan African countries should also adopt policies that promote private investment into the kind of clean waste management that leads to economic, social, and environmental benefits; South Africa is leading the pack. Sources
- Potential new power source for South Africa https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/737437/potential-new-power-source-for-south-africa/?utm_source=everlytic&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=businesstech
- INNOVATION: ‘Gizzu’ portable power stations – best way to beat load-shedding in South Africa https://businesstech.co.za/news/industry-news/738711/gizzu-portable-power-stations-the-easiest-way-to-beat-load-shedding-in-south africa/?utm_source=everlytic&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=businesstech
FUN TIDBIT
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
ROAD TRIP – Where are the 20 best road trips in the world? Two of them are in South Africa!
BREAKING WORLD NEWS – More war but no jaw as yet; will South Africa be impacted in 2024 by the turmoil in the north?
GEOPOLITICS – A RED SEA SPARK
Shipping company Kuehne & Nagel said it had identified 103 ships having already changed course, with more expected to go around South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. The diversion adds about 6,000 nautical miles to a typical journey from Asia to Europe, potentially adding 3-4 weeks to delivery times and thus product cost:
This casts the USA into a classic Thucydides Trap, where a dominant power is provoked into responding against a rising power over an issue to which it must respond and prove it retains its supremacy – but it can’t win. This is exactly what the rising power wants the dominant power to do. The power of the US Navy rests on safe global trade. Sources
- The BRICS’ adding six pivotal countries in August, as I said then, was the point of this year’s Summit, not the introduction of some etherial, gold-backed, BRICS coin.We’ve had many hints that the Suez Canal is a major hotspot for conflict over recent years. Think back to 2021 when the Evergreen Capesize ship was inadvertently careened in the canal. People are now evaluating the case that global shipping is at risk. https://tomluongo.me/2023/12/21/no-one-grokked-suez-houthi-gambit/
- The Red Sea situation is even more critical now; historically it has always been a ticking time-bomb https://twitter.com/Aristos_Revenge/status/1736991083471454681
- HMG Press release: UK and US target Hamas with new sanctions to isolate terror group https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-and-us-target-hamas-with-new-sanctions-to-isolate-terror-group
THE ANGLOSPHERE WAR STATEGY
The world is on the cusp of the most serious crisis in modern history. The US and its allies have embarked on a military adventure, “a long war”, which threatens the future of humanity. This “war without borders” is being carried out at the crossroads of the most serious economic crisis in history impoverishing large sectors of the global population.
“US Military Strategy and Force Posture for the 21st Century” was published, and described HERE, following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. This eventually gave rise to the ‘War on Terror’ and launched the long-term goal of, “Full Spectrum Dominance.” The military deployment of US-NATO forces is occurring in several regions of the world simultaneously. The concept of the “Long War” has characterised US military doctrine since the end of WW2. US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) Headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska plays a central role in coordinating military operations.
According to former NATO Commander, General Wesley Clark, the Pentagon’s military road-map consists of a sequence of war strategies. – America’s Long War Against Humanity – Michel Chossudovsky:
AND it’s playing out in the Red Sea with Breaking News: Chinese, Iranian, and Indian warships are in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden – the home of the Houthis.
A LOOK BACK at 2023 – Sources
- Joe Biden likes to talk about, “inflexion points” when he is lecturing us about world affairs and the supposed ‘superiority’ of the United States of America. This year is indeed an inflexion point. It was the year that the entire world saw the truly hideous nature of US power https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/12/24/2023-the-year-the-world-saw-the-u-s-emperor-as-naked-and-grotesque/
- Israel’s Transparent Genocide in Gaza turns to ‘Mass Starvation’ as the means of their Highly Premeditated Mass Murder of the Palestinians. If you not already aware, there is a highly organised destruction in Gaza https://www.theburningplatform.com/2023/12/24/this-terrible-2023-tragedy-only-gets-worse-by-highly-purposeful-design/
SURVIVAL MONITOR – Perpetual Learning as an Apprentice of Mother Earth
He says, “It is a sturdy stepping stone on the path towards a more Regenerative Future. Each heirloom seed you save, share and cultivate, each time you use food as medicine and each regenerative garden you plant is adding your energy to an unstoppable movement that will peacefully dissolve corrupt institutions, ‘composting’ them in place and allowing space for something new to grow. In doing so, we are leaving this world a little bit more honest, equitable, abundant and beautiful than it was when we got here.”
My Plan ‘B’ calls for exactly what Gavin has achieved because I believe that survival in the coming years will depend hugely on our ability to produce our own healthy and sustainable, local food and natural medicine supply. It is upon these innovations that our local economies will thrive – the first criteria of human needs – FOOD.
Today is an auspicious day! Today I received my Advanced Permaculture Design Certificate. https://gavinmounsey.substack.com/p/another-step-on-my-path-of-perpetual?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
The Globalists know all this and we see it playing out in Gaza as an ancient weapon of war – STARVATION. HERE is the inside story of how the Cartels have captured and degraded our toxic food supply for profit and further gain a second round of profit from Big Pharma ‘treating’ the ills in their manufactured foods create.
INFLATION – URANIUM beats it!
There is a mantra that has essentially become axiomatic: the US Treasury market is the deepest and most liquid in the world. And a corollary to that is: US Treasury bonds are ‘risk free.’ These once-taken-for-granted pillars of eternal truth are looking somewhat shaky in the medium term.
NARRATIVE BATTLE – CLEAN ENERGY – The Sad Joke of ‘Net Zero’
Weather modification patents specifically call for, “cross-linked polymers”, a.k.a. micro-plastics. Patent #US6315213B1 is one example. We are now being told that a “Dangerous Factor X could be lurking in Earth’s Ice” and that, “zombie viruses” are “waking up”. Is this narrative yet another smoke-screen to obfuscate ongoing biological warfare and portending another scamdemic? How long until we hit the wall at full velocity? The latest instalment of Global Alert News:
FINALLY – Fake News?
COMING SOON
- BOOM’s Weekly Review – Tuesday January 2, 2024
- The Financial Jigsaw Part 2 – Saturday January 6, 2024 – Chapter 3 – Basis of Survival
- BOOM’s Weekly Review – Tuesday January 9, 2024
- Letter from Great Britain – Saturday January 13, 2024 – ongoing biweekly
REFERENCES
- My Book: “The Financial Jigsaw” Parts 1 & 2 Scroll: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020 including regular updates.
- BOOM Finance and Economics Substack (Subscribe for Free) – also on LinkedIn and WordPress. Plus Covid Medical News Network CMN News and BOOM Blog — All Editorials (over 5 years) — BOOM Finance and Economics | Designed for Critical Thinkers — UPDATED WEEKLY (wordpress.com)
If the Fed starts dropping interest rates the stock market will go to new highs. But what will the $ be worth?
By the way, the link for the Globalist Game Plan to gain back trust is broken. I doubt they will be successful though.
Thanks MC – another reader noticed it. I redirected it to this worthless cry from WEF! https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/12/how-to-rebuild-trust-in-philanthropy-results-results-results/?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2818920_WeeklyAgenda22December2023&utm_term=&emailType=Agenda%20Weekly
LOL – they are losing it and they know it!
Wow. When I started this I didn’t think I was reading a book. My only real disagreement is on King Dollar. Since our stock market is absolutely fixed to keep Woke Corps on the base, it will amazingly not go down. If he is correct about the dollar, they will be able to continue their 20 yr+ no inflation gaslighting treatment which means that low or near zero fed fund rates. And since the market ONLY moves on interest rates, discounting little things like civil or thermonuclear war, stocks stay up. But know that if you stay in any stocks you enrich the people putting all of us in tyranny. How Mr Peters doesn’t even go there is boggling.
Thanks for reading Tr4 – yes it’s a bit of a marathon but you are so right. BOOM has opined for ages that King Dollar is in it for the long run – 50-100 years he said; but I have always disagreed – now he is re-thinking. Not long now I guess. Ray Dalio has it right IMHO.
As I see it, the powers that be, have bet the house on AI and Robotics. Public sentiment is turning against the people in power in huge numbers throughout the world, but the greedy wealthy ruling class continue with their crimes against humanity without regard to the sentiment of the people. They would only do this if they truly believed their ability to control the masses with their technology. Human armies would never stand against their own peoples, but the AI and Robots have no morality, just like the people in power.
If I am right, the world is racing towards a hellish future, and I am truly saddened for the younger generations……
Likewise Jdog – I share your concerns, especially for my own grandchildren (9). I wrote my book for them, not for profit, but they have distained it, and I don’t know why. Surely people want to know the truth and how this corrupt system works? But perhaps not – head-in-sand syndrome?
Whatever – this is my legacy to them, regardless: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358117070_THE_FINANCIAL_JIGSAW_-_PART_1_-_4th_Edition_2020
You are not alone; my liberal ex-wife and kids won’t talk to me; half of Americans reject real work and Conservatism; they would starve in the Garden Of Eden without paid helpers; you are to kind to them : their heads are where the sun doesn’t shine.
LOL – kindness doesn’t kill, rhsjr! I can afford to be generous!
Kindness is our Christian manner but it has flaws; we get no respect, and we get walked on like door mats , to their (others) own eventual destruction. As a parent, teacher, and Officer, I learned that Self Discipline is essential for individuals and Society, and self discipline must be taught by careful but effective externally applied discipline: (if you) Spare the Rod, (you will) Spoil the child. I believe most Americans are very spoiled, self indulgent, ignorant and lazy (insouciant); not informed or the least self-sufficient.
Agreed rhs jr – all correct but as Ray Dalio explains in his video, as an Empire becomes wealthier – the general population’s behaviour degrades, just a Rome followed the same process.
“Whatever a person is sowing, this he will also reap: This proverb was well-known in St. Paul’s time. It apparently originated in ancient agricultural societies.
The proverb states a reality; ‘what is planted in the soil is what will grow from the soil’. In ancient times, the figurative application was usually negative—a person would reap negative consequences from wrong conduct or actions. But Paul also highlights that positive actions can bring a good outcome, “everlasting life.” [Galatians 6:8]
In my observations, people rarely want to know the truth. They want to believe in their delusions about what they want things to be. I grew up in the 60’s and 70’s when the younger generation was badly demoralized by a world that lied to them about almost everything. (Viet Nam, Kent State, Kennedy’s, Drugs, ) They learned to hate and distrust government. By the 80’s and 90’s they had forgotten all of that and bought into the fantasy just as their parents before had done. They became materialistic and replaced morals with greed. I am now seeing the same sort of atrocities being committed as during the 60’s and 70’s and few of my generation, or any other, are standing against it. At this point in my life I must admit, my opinion of mankind is more negative than positive…
“…my opinion of mankind is more negative than positive” – you hit that right Jdog I share your distain. But it has ever been so if you spend 45 mins on Ray Dalio’s video – it is a process that repeats eternally.