Guest Post by Martin Armstrong
The US government consistently lies on their jobs reports released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The agency initially cheered at the 3,140,000 new positions created in 2023, but later revised the figure down by 443,000. But wait, the BLS made another miscalculation in March to the tune of 306,000 jobs. This means that one-third of all new positions added in 2023 were a LIE.
Obviously they fabricated job growth under Biden in the wake of COVID regulations. Of course the economy added thousands of new jobs – you prevented businesses from remaining open for years! The Federal Reserve used this false data for monetary policy, continually citing a strong job market as one of the economy’s saving graces.
These calculations were FAR off to the point where the math cannot be seen as a mere error. The calculations were off for 11 out of 12 months last year. Let us look at history and ask the most important question: has this been done before? YES!
WINTER SALE
“By the time you include all the monthly revisions and the annual benchmark revision, about one-quarter of all the jobs we thought were added last year have been revised away,” E.J. Antoni, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation’s Grover M. Hermann Center for the Federal Budget, told the DCNF. “That pattern of consistent downward revisions has happened in two prior recessions. It is a result of market conditions changing too rapidly for the BLS to adjust their methodology, which in turn causes consistent errors in measuring nonfarm payrolls.”
The BLS has continually tailored their method for calculating employment. One of the key surveys used is the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a monthly survey of households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the BLS. The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed individuals divided by the labor force, multiplied by 100. BLS creates occupational employment projections in a product called the National Employment Matrix, which describes the employment of detailed occupations within detailed wage and salary categories, including those who are self-employed or employed by a private household. The BLS also develops participation rate projections using data from the CPS conducted by the Census Bureau. So there is inaccurate data coming from multiple places.
In 2023, the agency made changes to its calculations in 2023, including the implementation of a new weight smoothing procedure for state and metropolitan area employment data. They have recalculated this figure for Q1 of 2024 and will check back to see if the numbers are where they want them to be. Procedures for reducing nonsampling errors, such as data collection reinterviews, observed interviews, and systematic reviews of collected data. They claim that falling survey responses are reducing the accuracy of their reports. The agency also claims their statistical calculations are subject to a widening difference between preliminary and final releases.
So they have a general idea of employment in the country when they initially release their reports. Why bother to release them at all until the data settles? They know that the markets jump on anticipation of the monthly jobs reports and central banks and institutions factor that data into their planning.
So coincidentally, the BLS happens to be far off the mark during economic downturns. These must be the same people budgeting for the Pentagon or IRS, as the numbers they provide to the public simply do not matter and no one is ever investigated.
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It’s not any statistical research on my part that tells me I’m being lied to by the government.
It’s intuition.
Managing a nearly empty office tower helps a little too.
“Political language is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind. ”
― George Orwell
The chocolate ration has been raised to thirty grammes from forty.
~ 1984
.
Keep calm and vote hardererer.
Pay your inflation tax and shop, or the turriss win.
Being lied to regardless whose circus is running the show, Joe. Surely you are referring to lies with each change of the guard previously and going forward.
It would have been 2/3, but most of their staff got laid off.
Big Brother sez yer employed. Now git back to your smart apartment.
The ‘new jobs created’ numbers was / is total bullshit.
I do believe there are millions of open jobs possibly up to the 8M as reported. I hear how hard it is to hire people everywhere i travel.
The problem isn’t jobs, it’s workers.
You can fill a slot, but that doesn’t mean that the employee will show up on time, not be high, not be incompetent, etc.
As far as government numbers though, anyone with two brain cells knows they’re completely made up.
If you’re hiring for a job that a stoner could do…don’t complain when stoners are the only ones willing to show up.
This ain’t rocket surgery.
Those are the “quality”, some say “living wage”, jobs included in ridiculous BLS. Once again, total bs regardless what circus is in town.
I always thought those that would reference “living wage” darn sure not among those that pull the boot straps up and get going. What is a “living wage” exactly. Is a “living wage” one that enables a person to purchase a 1/2 mil $ home? What exactly is it?
When most employment is exploitive, bad attitudes abound. Corporate profits must be protected so that it can all trickle back down.
I don’t know it’s true, someone once said to protect the stock holders. Probably the ones that own most of the stock is what they mean. lol
Plenty of jobs that pay under 18 bucks an hour. But who wants to work when you can sit in your parents basement staring into your dopamine propaganda machine. Free food rent ect.
If you’re 20 something child won’t fly the coop. Stop paying for their phone and food. They will get a job real quick.
If you don’t work you don’t eat.
You are not your child’s friend you are their parent. Hold them accountable.
They are going to kick and scream and threaten you. Stand your ground.
Short term pain for long term gain.
Same here. Not as bad as earlier but still a thing. The employee pool in Montana has always been small now it’s very small.
I think one in couples started staying home with kids after the shut down. They had to make it work then and kept it.
Also, a certain percentage are now sick or dead.
A drop of 10-20% overall would be noticeable.
Then the dead beat workers.
They say there’s 350 million in the US. Working age group is pretty small overall, say 150 million spread over the country….
My dad would tell me if I wanted to be a bum, just be a good one!
Side note , I assume all the JOBS , not the rolling papers, are in Texas. However, taking a back way home yesterday on a road I’ve not traveled in many years, I was somewhat astonished the number of “residences” that were merely small to medium size travel trailers and older ones to boot. No , there were no Willie busses. So, while I don’t know the circumstances if all the JOBS are in Texas , and that is /s, why are people living in travel trailers. It just hit me as surprised the number. Perhaps those folks are living on some measly disability thing that may have been more lucrative 20 years ago, smaller SS checks than “average”, don’t know, drugs, don’t want to work? Anyway, jobs are there just maybe not one’s idea of a “living wage” so forget pulling up the boot straps. Sad situation some people get THEMSELVES into.
Open you eyes see the lies right in front of ya.
Video games train the kids for war
Army chic in high-fashion stores
Law and order’s done their job
Prisons filled while the rich still rob
Assassination politics
Violence rules within’ our nation’s midst
Well ignorance is their power tool
You’ll only know what they want you to know
The television cannot lie
Controlling media with smokescreen eyes
Nuclear politicians picture show
The acting’s lousy but the blind don’t know
Open your eyes
See the lies right in front of ya
Open your eyes
They scare us all with threats of war
So we forget just how bad things are
You taste the fear when you’re all alone
They gonna git’cha when you’re on your own
The silence of conspiracy
Slaughtered on the altar of apathy
You gotta wake up from your sleep
‘Cause meek inherits earth six feet deep
Open your eyes see the lies right in front of ya
Open your eyes
Of course there are more jobs. One needs two when one would do before. Many new jobs are part-time, since the corporations have become clever: they don’t have to give benefits and breaks for a four-hour job.
And now, Aunt IRiS is going to crack down on the “gig” workers, so those jobs will be disappearing.
We have a granddaughter who has 3 different “gigs” and I’m confident she is considered as having 3 of the jobs created last year.
Farm production in Oceania is up for the tenth year in a row.
Everyone in Oceania is employed and paid a good living wage.
All hail Big Bro.
The economy has always been vibrant, Winston.
Figures lie and liars figure.
Who could have ever guessed that the government would deceive the public through false information. I am shocked, I tell you shocked!
The public need to stop being wide-eyed children. When, oh when, will people abandon the state? It’s Lucy & Charlie Brown and a football.
“If the bulk of the public were really convinced of the illegitimacy of the State, if it were convinced that the State is nothing more nor less than a bandit gang writ large, then the State would soon collapse to take on no more status or breadth of existence than another Mafia gang.”
― Murray N. Rothbard, The Ethics of Liberty
https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/79157-the-ethics-of-liberty
“No middle ground is possible on this subject. Either “taxation without consent is robbery,” or it is not. If it is not, then any number of men, who choose, may at any time associate; call themselves a government; assume absolute authority over all weaker than themselves; plunder them at will; and kill them if they resist.”
― Lysander Spooner, No Treason: The Constitution of No Authority
https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/2095916-no-treason-the-constitution-of-no-authority
On Spooner, per wiki so cannot trust it at all /s, His economic and political ideology has been identified by some scholars libertarian socialism, left-libertarianism, free-market socialism, and mutualism, while others identify them as right-libertarian, anarcho-capitalist, and propertarianist.
Spooner was probably a “great” guy.
“Libertarians” have some “great” ideas and that is as far as it goes.
That’s not it. If enough adopt those ideas, the entire pro-state paradigm changes. The evils we bemoan here will evaporate without mass support.
“IF”. lol
How about NEVER. Come on dude. You ain’t that stupid. Or are you?
As long as I remember labor stats have been far less than “accurate” REGARDLESS whose circus is running the show. Were they not fabricated previously? Oh , no, wait, everything spewed to the public was “legitimate”.
What a bunch of bs.
What, the Biden Admin lied???? I’m shocked..
So what?