WE’LL GET WHAT WE DESERVE

Mr. Market Shall Prevail

New York is filling up with holiday shoppers and tourists. On Saturday, we went to the Broadway show Jersey Boys. It was not an especially complex or subtle storyline. But the music, of Frankie Valli and The Four Seasons, was lively and agreeable. It took us back to the early 1960s. Those were the days!

Back then people had jobs … prices were fairly stable … and the GDP was growing at twice or three times today’s rates (and so were personal incomes). How was it possible?

Back then, under chairman William McChesney Martin Jr., the Fed ran much tighter monetary policy. So America’s savers could earn a decent return on their money. And the Fed wouldn’t have even dreamed… let alone dared… to target higher stock market prices. What about quantitative easing?

It was probably illegal. And certainly would have been considered immoral or insane. But there are fads in music… and in central banking, too.

The music industry has given us “twerking.” (Google it.) And in central banking, we have multitrillion-dollar asset price manipulation programs. Both are obscene. But both are popular. And almost nobody wants to see them stop.

But in the end Mr. Market… nature… and the gods… will prevail. Thy will be done. It always is.

 

Miley Cyrus Bangerz Tour In Miami

Miley Cyrus, the gal that made “twerking” popular. Quite harmless compared to money printing, although it’s kind of embarrassing …

Photo: Larry Marano / Getty Images

 

 

Defying the Gods

As we closed out last week, US stock market benchmarks were climbing to new highs. And gold was taking a $17-an-ounce hit. But what happens next is not up to us. It depends on the gods, who represent the forces of “what shall be,” not “what we want things to be.”

All we know is the Fed cannot control the outcome. Nor can individual investors. Nor Paul Krugman. Nor the president of the US. Not even Warren Buffett or the NFL can dictate the terms of this story.

You can tinker with nature… you can bend and twist the markets… you can delay and outrage the gods… but you can never control them. If smart, well-informed people, armed with modern theories and “policy tools,” could control an economy or a market, why would there ever be meltdowns, breakdowns or shakedowns?

Why would Zimbabwe’s currency become worthless? Why would Venezuela be feeling “the hurtin’”? Why would Japan’s GDP be the same as it was 25 years ago – despite a quarter of a century of “stimulus”?

No, dear reader, even the most powerful policymakers and the smartest theorists cannot defy the gods. In the end, we don’t get what we want; we get what we deserve.

 

23.40A procession of the 12 Olympian gods from the Walters Art Museum. From left to right: Hestia (scepter), Hermes (winged cap and staff), Aphrodite (veiled), Ares (helmet and spear), Demeter (scepter and wheat sheaf), Hephaestus (staff), Hera (scepter), Poseidon (trident), Athena (owl and helmet), Zeus (thunderbolt and staff), Artemis (bow and quiver), Apollo (lyre). Not to be trifled with.

Photo via Wikimedia Commons / Walters Art Museum

 

Cheap Gas!

Now, thanks to our enlightened economists and their careful management, we’re told, the US economy is doing quite well. Reports the New York Times:

 

“On Friday, the Labor Department reported that US payrolls rose by 321,000 jobs in November and that hourly wages jumped, easily beating economists’ expectations. This year will be the best for job creation since the boom years of the late 1990s.”

 

Meanwhile, federal deficits are falling. And you can buy a gallon of regular gasoline for $2.71 – only five times the price of when Ike and Dick were “sure to click.”

The Fed says falling prices are bad. They are adding trillions of dollars to the monetary base to make sure the consumer price index rises by its target of 2% a year. But falling oil prices are a good thing. Do we have that right? Sometimes we can’t remember.

Let’s see, Americans can spend less on gasoline, leaving them more to spend on other things. Heck, we don’t need no stinkin’ QE anymore. Now we have cheap gas!

Wait. Since the crisis of 2008-09 about one-third of capital spending by S&P 500 companies went into energy. And as much as 20% of the high-yield market (junk) now is concentrated in the energy sector.

That boom was built on low interest rates and a high oil price. Without cheap money, cheap gas wouldn’t be possible. And when gas gets too cheap, the cheap money suddenly gets very dear.

Nearly a trillion dollars of spending worldwide is focused on new energy production. And with oil prices down nearly 40%, much of that spending… and all the subprime energy debt… is in danger. Unless oil prices go back up soon, there could be hell to pay.

 

JNKJunk bond ETF JNK (unadjusted version excluding dividends). Feeling the pinch from plunging oil prices. Needless to say, this doesn’t look good, via StockCharts – click to enlarge.

 

The Saudis seem to be determined to keep on pumping, despite plunging crude oil prices. The only way they can protect their market share is by remaining the low-cost producer.

US frackers are likely to keep fracking too. They’ve bet big money on forcing crude out of grudging rock. They won’t give up easily. Instead, they’ll borrow more heavily to stay in business. But the more they pump… the longer oil prices stay low.

Paying $60 to extract a $50 barrel of oil is not a good business – no matter how low interest rates are. Already, the gods have smashed the oil companies, the drillers, the transporters and almost everything else that reeks of gasoline. Soon, they’ll whack at their subprime debt too.

Will they bring down other stocks? Bonds? The economy? Only a fool would pretend to know. As to twerking, your editor hasn’t made up his mind. But as to the Fed and its meddling in the markets, he is sure: Less is more.

Trying to manage an economy is like trying to manage the love life of a teenage daughter, it’s just going to make things worse.

 

al-naimi_6

Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali Al-Naimi. Rumor has it that the Saudis were so offended by Miley Cyrus’ twerking, they decided to pump the US fracking industry off the map out of sheer spite. They’re probably short JNK too.

Photo via AP

 

 

The above article is taken from the Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

The Bells Will Be Silent

 

Still too Much Debt

A faint breeze blew through the US stock exchanges on Friday. A few leaves fluttered. But Diary readers want to know: When is the next hurricane coming?

Alas, we get the newspaper no earlier than anyone else. It always has yesterday’s news… not tomorrow’s. That leaves us wondering and guessing and trying to figure out what comes next.

The storm that raged in 2008 was fundamentally deflationary. It was so predictable that we didn’t need tomorrow’s headlines; the weather forecast was obvious.

After decades of taking on debt, Americans started to stagger under the weight of their debt-service costs. When house prices fell, their knees buckled and their backs broke.

Households cut spending and reduced borrowing. But they are still heavily in debt. In 1971 – before the big credit bubble began inflating under the new fiat currency regime – American households had $5 of income for every $4 of debt.

Now, for every $5 of household income they have $12 of debt. That’s down from the “peak debt” of 2007 – at $13 for every $5 of disposable income – but still much more than the historic average.

 

debt-to-income

Household debt-to-income ratios of US and Canada (Canada’s housing bubble hasn’t burst yet, hence the divergence in trends) – click to enlarge.

 

 

Mr. Government vs. Mr. Market

The feds’ response to Americans’ prudence was also predictable. After so many years of backstopping the stock market… and luring consumers and businesses deeper into debt… the feds weren’t about to quit. Besides, their theories told them this was when their help was needed most.

This put Mr. Government and Mr. Market on opposing sides of the big blow. The feds whip the winds up from the South. Mr. Market sends them blowing down from the North.

The feds want inflation; Mr. Market wants deflation. The feds want more credit; Mr. Market wants debt paid down. The feds send down torrents of liquidity; Mr. Market mops them up. This leaves the economy in the eye of the storm – where all is quiet.

Black Friday was a disappointment for retailers; but the pundits say this was because so much shopping is now done online. There are fewer real breadwinner
jobs; but the pundits say the unemployment rate is down. The economy is sluggish; but pundits say the stock market reports clear sailing.

 

SP-and-PE10

Clear sailing ahead – as can be seen, a proper bubble gets even more stretched! – click to enlarge.

 

Dark Clouds and Fierce Tornadoes

But beyond this scene of calm the pundits are painting are the strong winds…

Zero-interest-rate policies… quantitative easing… deficit spending – all are meant to offset Mr. Market’s dark clouds and fierce tornadoes.

If Mr. Market weren’t in such a destructive mood, these measures would have already sent interest rates and inflation soaring skyward… with the Dow flying to 25,000… gold soaring to $3,000 an ounce… and $5 for a Big Mac.

And if the feds weren’t so determined to stop him, Mr. Market probably would have knocked the Dow down to about half of where it is today. He would also have crushed half of the major Wall Street firms. And you’d probably be able to get a Big Mac for $1 – with fries.

Who will win this contest? In the end, Mr. Market will triumph. He always does. He represents the forces of nature… and the gods.

 

bell ringer

He is the fellow who keeps trees from growing to the sky … who forces prices back to the mean … and who never gives a sucker an even break. And that bell you don’t hear ringing at the top of a market? That’s Mr. Market not ringing it.

Photo credit: bnps.co.uk

All necessary precautions have actually been taken. This professional town crier was hired specifically to ring the bell when the top is in, so there’s nothing to worry about. Everybody will know exactly when to sell, and no-one will suffer any losses! Except for the poorhouse-bound schmucks buying what everybody else will be selling just in time, and of course the hard of hearing who fail to hear the ringing of the bell (we’re working on getting hold of a bigger bell for them).

 

Charts by: Haver, Advisorperspectives / Doug Short

 

The above article Was published originally as “The Best Way to Play US Stocks from Here …” at the Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

Don’t Bet on $70 Oil Lasting Long

Guest Post by Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners 


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Oil platform. Source: Wikipedia

You puttin’ the hurtin’ on ‘em now.– Tommy Wilkerson

Dear Diary,

Again, we quote our old friend.

Mr. Market has been puttin’ the hurtin’ on gold bulls.

Yesterday, he went after the gold shorts. Gold rose $42.60 – or 3.6%. That’s proportionally equal to a move of 640 points on the Dow.

But today our sympathies go to poor Vladimir Putin and Nicolás Maduro. In Russia, the ruble is falling and growth is grinding to a halt. In Venezuela, the whole economy is falling apart. The proximate cause of this hurtin’ is a fall in the price of oil.

Yesterday, US crude oil rose $2.85 – or 4.3% – to $69 a barrel, its largest daily gain since August 2012. But it’s still down 32% from its 52-week high, set in June.

Outside of the big oil exporting countries and the US shale-oil business this big drop in prices is widely seen as good news.

Consumers fill their tanks at lower gas prices and have a few bucks left over – money that can be used to buy things. According to the current and conventional delusions of the economic profession, this leads to sustained higher economic growth, more jobs and a cure for impotence.

But dear reader, was there ever in the history of the world a hurtin’ that stayed put?

That’s the trouble with hurtin’: It moves around.

In today’s Diary we look more closely at the subject of hurtin’ generally… and the effect of lower oil prices, specifically.

In passing, we observe that the secret to investing success is to buy what is hurtin’ when it is hurtin’ most… and to sell what ain’t.

Economic Warfare

It came out last week that OPEC is deliberately adding to the suffering of US shale-oil producers.

At its meeting in Vienna last Thursday, the 12-nation oil cartel decided to leave its output ceiling at 30 million barrels of oil a day, where it has been for the last three years.

As Chris put it yesterday in The B&P Briefing – our subscriber-only bonus letter – this is economic warfare.

OPEC believes, or so it seems, that cheaper oil prices will put pressure on high-cost US shale-oil producers. Although production costs vary, fracking costs more than pumping straight up.

Middle Eastern oil comes as readily up from the sand as water from a hand-dug well. That’s why the Saudis are the world’s lowest-cost producers – at just $2 a barrel.

All else being equal, the more they pump, the lower prices go, and the harder it is to make a good living in South Texas or West Siberia.

Conventional Middle Eastern oil is still profitable – even with oil as low as $67 a barrel. Unconventional shale and offshore oil may not be. Abdalla El-Badri, OPEC’s secretary-general, reckons half of all US shale output is unprofitable below an oil price of $85 a barrel.

Still, you may say, lower energy costs will revive the US consumer economy… no matter who pumps it. (Chris wrote about this recently here.)

Lower oil prices make it possible for Americans to buy more stuff. Or even save their money!

Pity the poor Russians and Venezuelans: They’ll have to live with less.

A World of Hurt

On this point, we congratulate Mr. Maduro for his deep philosophical reflection on the nature of hurtin’. Rather than whine about it, he noted it was “an opportunity to end superfluous luxuries and unnecessary spending.”

So you see, the hurtee may come out ahead. He may emerge from the hurtin’ in better shape – like the gold mining companies that have had to take free soda machines out of their corporate dining rooms.

When the hurtin’ moves to someone else, they are leaner and meaner than ever.

For instance, low oil prices squeeze out capital investment in the energy sector.

Who wants to drill a new well with the price falling? Who wants to put in solar panels? Who wants to buy a new Prius or a new Tesla? Who invests in future production?

No one.

Higher-cost shale-oil producers go out of business. Alternative energy producers go to sleep. The bulls go broke and the shorts count their money. Then, the hurtin’ is ready to move on – from the producers to the consumers.

Low oil prices have the same sort of unintended, but fully predictable, consequences as low interest rates. Consumers catch a break – temporarily. But capital investment goes down. And output declines.

Worldwide, oil use is still increasing. Without more investment to bring forth more supply, prices will shoot up again.

Gold is hurtin’. Oil is hurtin’. Russia is hurtin’. Venezuela is hurtin’. Greece is hurtin’.

Our back is hurtin’ from lifting those poles.

Eventually, the pain will go away. But the hurtin’ may also get worse before the hurtin’ moves on.

Regards,

Signature

Bill

Further Reading: Legendary natural resource investor Rick Rule will be answering questions about how to navigate the energy markets at the private meeting Bill and his family are putting on early next year at the luxury Rancho Santana resort on Nicaragua’s Pacific Coast.

Bill will be there too. As will some of his close personal advisors. If you’re interested in learning about growing and protecting wealth in 2015 – as well as meeting in person with Rick, Bill and other likeminded Diary readers – please respond to this short and urgent invitation as soon as possible.

In Defense of Obamacare’s Jonathan Gruber

 

The Divinely Appointed and the Elected

US stocks hit new highs last week. Gold fell back below the $1,200-an-ounce mark…

… and MIT economics professor Jonathan Gruber came dangerously close to committing truth.

The ancient Egyptians believed Pharaoh was divine. They called him a god. That gave him the right to tell people what to do.

And in Britain up until the Revolution of 1688, and in France up until its revolution a century later, people believed their king was divinely appointed. He wasn’t a god. But God had given him the divine right to tell others what to do.

Now people believe that God has nothing to do with it. Voters elect their leaders, who do what the public wants them to do.

 

cali

Malcolm McDowell as Caligula (1979)

 

 

Popular Myths

All of these descriptions of government are popular myths. Diary readers will recognize a drop of fresh water in the murky puddle of political fantasy in the recent remarks of Mr. Gruber who, as a consultant, helped put together the Obamacare bill:

 

“Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage and basically, you know, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically, that was really, really critical to getting this thing to pass.

If you have a law that makes explicit that healthy people pay in and sick people get money, it wouldn’t have passed.”

 

Poor Gruber is getting little support or appreciation. Instead of being thanked for helping us understand how the system really works, he is being assailed from right and left.

To the right, he is a slick political operative, deceiving the public to get what he wants. To the left, he is a dumbbell and a traitor, who has revealed a few too many unsavory ingredients in the Democrats’ sausages.

What can we do but rise in defense of Gruber, as we do with all underdogs, diehards and mental defectives? He is wrong about the stupidity of the American people. The typical voter is no dumber than the typical person he votes for.

Voters have better things to do than to study the rampant folderol of the legislative process. It would be time wasted, anyway, because he can do nothing about it. Besides, he is just doing what he should do: playing his role in the fantasy.

 

jonathan-gruber-ap#Grubered: admittedly the hashtag-spawning Dr. Gruber has greatly enhanced the entertainment value of the political circus

(Photo credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo)

 

A More Corrupt World

French king Louis XIV reportedly believed God gave him his job assignment. The king was supposed to rule; the population of France was supposed to submit to his rule. Each had a role to play.

Likewise in today’s America, the elite who control the workings of the government are supposed to pretend they are acting on behalf of the voters. Voters are supposed to believe it.

Voters could perfectly well understand what is going on if they invested the time and energy to look at it closely. But what would be the point? The system depends on the cooperation of the conniving Grubers as well as the “stupid” goobers. Both must work together to make a more corrupt world.

USA Today helped elucidate the mechanics of the fantasy in an article on “dark money” last week. Big Pharma sets up “advocacy groups” that pretend to be genuine public interest outfits, but whose real purpose is to push drugs.

The nuclear power industry operates a “Clean and Safe Energy Coalition.” It sounds like a citizens’ lobby; in reality it is an extension of the industry’s lobbying efforts.

And the Center for Consumer Freedom is a front for the junk-food industry, says USA Today. The newspaper doesn’t seem to like “dark money.” It wants the elite to do something to stop it. Why?

Like an alarm at 5 a.m., it disturbs the dream.

 

alarmclock

Dream-disturbing device

 

The above article is taken from the Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

Kamikaze Finance

Guest Post by Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners 


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Source: Wikimedia

Dear Diary,

Not much market action yesterday. So, let us turn to what is bound to be the funniest… and scariest… story in the financial world.

Once again, our hat is off to the stalwart, intrepid and half-mad Japanese. They are going where no respectable economist would go… no responsible public policy should go… and no one with his wits about him would want to go.

We begin with the latest news: Nippon is in a slump. The numbers from the third quarter confirm that the feared “triple-dip” recession is here.

Japanese growth fell at a 1.6% annual rate for the June-to-September quarter. The consensus forecast had been for a 2.2% rise in growth.

This is bad news for Abenomics. He lets fly his arrows. They end up sticking in his derriere. The idea (if you can call it that) was to stimulate inflation, growth and job creation.

How?

Easy. You print more money!

Bailouts and Boondoggles

For the last 20 years, the Japanese government has been borrowing the retirement savings of its long-suffering “salarymen” and spending the money on bailouts and boondoggles – often involving vast amounts of concrete that now covers half the country.

If that weren’t enough – and it obviously wasn’t – in March 2001, the Bank of Japan invented QE to add some monetary steel to the fiscal cement. The Bank of Japan became the largest buyer of the government’s debt… increasing the monetary base by roughly 60%.

What did all this feverish building get the Japanese people, apart from five times as much government debt?

Absolutely nothing. The index of Japanese industrial output was at 96.8 in 1989. Today, it is still at 96.8.

In other words, this entire “stimulus” has stimulated not a single electron, proton or neutron. The real economy has not grown by a single yen. Nor has a single new job been created.

Nothing succeeds like failure. Per acre, no nation has ever been abused by so much monetary and fiscal failure.

You’d think the Japanese would have had enough of it by now. Instead, like a woozy customer just before closing time, they call out for more.

Abe’s Hidden Agenda

Or at least they elect Shinzo Abe, who promises more.

Especially more QE: Instead of buying a piddling 60% of Japanese government debt, the BoJ will buy all of it.

We hold our breath. We reach for the back of a chair to steady our staggered legs.

Could we have read that right?

Yes. Bloomberg reports that the BoJ’s record stimulus “may see it buy every new bond the government issues.”

And now the scam comes into focus. The real purpose is not to stimulate the economy; it’s too late for that. The hidden agenda is to bring down Japan’s enormous government debt – about 240% of GDP – and stiff retirees and other bondholders in the process.

Abe’s plan was to announce an ambitious program of foolhardy meddling. This, he reasoned, would send the exchange value of the yen down… and make Japanese exports more attractive on world markets.

It’s an old trick: Japan would gain market share by debasing its currency.

But it didn’t work. Output is falling. Household earnings are dropping too.

Japan doesn’t just export; it also imports. The yen has fallen 23% versus the dollar since Abenomics got started in December 2012. This may have made Japanese labor cheaper, but it also made it more expensive for domestic manufacturers to import oil and other raw materials.

And it reduced the buying power of the Japanese consumers. Real household income has fallen 6% since the start of 2012.

Good Work, Abe

In the past, Japan has relied on two things to finance its deficits: the profitability of its industries and the thriftiness of its savers.

But the fall of the value of the yen increased the costs of imports so much that the trade surplus has turned into a large trade deficit.

Instead of the ¥5 trillion surplus the county enjoyed in 2010, Japan has an ¥11 trillion deficit in 2014. And instead of the 10% savings rate the nation enjoyed in 1990, it now has a 3% savings rate – and sinking toward zero.

Good work, Abe.

But that’s not the end of the story. Now, there is no hope of growing the economy faster than the debt. Tax receipts have been flat for 20 years, as the population ages and shrinks. And with a growing trade deficit and disappearing savings, Japan can only hope to cut its debt down by inflating it away by way of the printing press.

Stick with the Trade of the Decade: Buy Japanese stocks. Sell Japanese bonds.

And stay tuned… The kamikaze finance story is just getting started.

Regards,

Signature

Bill

Further Reading: Japan isn’t the only country addicted to debt. In their book The New Empire of Debt, Bill and co-author Addison Wiggin offer a frightening look at America’s precarious financial position. They also detail the steps you should take now to protect your savings from the inevitable collapse of the US “Empire of Debt.”

We’re offering Diary of a Rogue Economist readers a FREE hardcover copy of Bill and Addison’s book. All we ask is that you cover shipping. Go here for full details.

How to Commit Financial Suicide

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

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Printing paper money at a printing press in Perm.

(Photo credit: Alexey Kudenko)

 

Stocks are trading at a new record. Works of art hit a new record too.

From Bloomberg:

 

“An almost 6-foot-tall Jeff Koons white plaster sculpture of a woman holding three Hermes Birkin bags sold for $4 million last night at a charity auction in New York, 60% more than similar works fetched in the past.

The sale of “Gazing Ball (Charity)” followed last week’s tally of $673 million for Impressionist and modern art sold at Manhattan auctions, setting the stage for a potential record season if high prices continue this week.

“I’m long-term bullish on the art market,” Rajiv Chaudhri, president of Sunsara Capital LLC in New York and an art collector, said at the event at the Four Seasons restaurant in New York. “Prices will keep moving up. There is still so much private wealth being created. Art is the ultimate asset.”

 

 

Mr. Chaudhri is wrong about several things …

First, private wealth is not being created; it is being fabricated by central banks.

Second, art is not the ultimate asset but probably a poor and unreliable one.

And third, the art market is not going up the way he imagines. When the money drains away, the aficionados will be punished: They’ll be stuck with their purchases.

 

110714-jeff-koons-sculpture-594Imagine being stuck with this all this plaster, knowing you paid $4 m. for it … of course, for Jeff Koons art, it’s actually cheap (yes, cheap).

(Photo © Jeff Koons)

 

Oceans of Liquidity

Still, Mr. Chaudhri is right about one thing: There’s a lot of money around. Yes, rich people have gotten a lot richer in the last few years. The top 1% now own 35% of America’s wealth. The bottom 80% owns only 11% of it.

Where did all this money come from? We’ve seen estimates for the effect of QE on the balance sheets of the country’s asset holders. Over the last five years QE has added between $2.5 trillion… to as high as $9 trillion.

Now, with so much loose change in their pockets, the rich can bid for Jeff Koons’ confections… Manhattan condos… or whatever they want. But that still leaves the question: Where does the money come from?

You already know the answer: from the central banks. And you know where they got it: from nowhere. Central banks have created oceans of liquidity. Like water, it had to go somewhere. In the event, it went into stocks, real estate, art… and many other things.

And now that the QE program is officially on “pause” in the US, the Japanese and the Europeans are taking over.

 

Koons-Rabbit-1986-Tate-Modern-
Jeff Koons with one of his balloon rabbits. His “balloon dog” sold for $58.4 million a year ago (see “The Bubble in Modern Art” for more details on what’s been going on this space, including some neat pictures). Now, we don’t know why anyone would pay $58 million for the balloon dog, even in the face of the printing presses running day and night, but we do know one thing: namely why Jeff Koons is laughing all the time (you will be hard-pressed to find a picture in which he actually manages to suppress his nigh-permanent grin). He sure has fooled ‘em. Got to admire the chutzpa and his success, even if it required the help of the NY art dealer mafia. Koons performs a valuable service for mere mortals as well, by proving to them that people who are so rich they are almost literally drowning in money can be complete morons, irredeemably out of their gourd. By the way, this is not meant to be a comment on his art as such: we do think he has great ideas and we personally like the economy and Zeitgeist feel of his stuff. We’d consider buying it too, if the decimal points on the price tags were moved several steps to the left.

(Photo credit: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Trendsetters

“ECB council backs €1 trillion euro-zone rescue,” was the headline in the Financial Times as last week came to a close.

“Mario Draghi has secured unanimous support from the European Central Bank’s governing council to inject €1 trillion to rescue the Eurozone economy from stagnation,” continues the report.

And that comes on the heels of remarkable reports from Japan.
The Bank of Japan has a new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Apparently, he is even more reckless and retarded than Prime Minister Shinzō Abe.

Kuroda has upped the central banks asset buying to ¥80 trillion ($700 billion) a year. And part of the deal includes direct purchases of Japanese REITs and ETFs. As the Real Time Economics blog reports:

 

“In addition to bonds, the BoJ is investing heavily in private assets […] by buying stocks in the form of exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, and real estate through Japan real estate investment trusts, or J-REITs. Those assets had been in the mix before, but will be tripled. The figures are small compared to the JGB purchases – ¥3 trillion for ETFs, ¥90 billion for J-REITs – but can have a big influence on markets.”

 

“Hey … you want a wealth effect? I’ll give you a wealth effect!”

The Japanese are the trendsetters – at least in the world of suicidal financial policies. So, it probably won’t be long before the Fed gets back into the money-printing business. Most likely, it’ll wait for the stock market to crack. Then it, too, could begin buying stocks directly.

 

BoJ assetsBoJ assets explode into the blue yonder as debt monetization goes into overdrive – good for the Nikkei, bad for the yen – click to enlarge.

 

The US stock market will fall because there is less and less fabricated money holding it up. The $3.6 trillion in QE helped push up the S&P 500 by 200% since its crisis low on March 9, 2009.

But QE is, as we said, now on “pause.” And the money-printing operations in Japan and Europe will probably not leak fast enough into the US to keep the water level high. Instead, liquidity will drain away – gradually … and then suddenly.

 

Nikkei vs. yenThe Nikkei vs. the yen (the yen is quite appropriately mostly colored in red) – click to enlarge.

 

The Other “QE” …

Not only has QE stopped, but so has the big boost that the US used to get from its trade deficits. At its peak, America’s current account deficit reached $800 billion. That money – largely credit-financed – went out of the US to buy foreign-made goods.

To stop their currencies from appreciating versus the dollar, foreign central banks – particularly the People’s Bank of China – had to print local currency to buy these dollars. They then reinvest these dollars back in the US. This was like QE before there was QE, says our friend Richard Duncan.

The US got a flood of liquidity from overseas money-printers. This is what helped inflate the stock market bubble of 1999 and then the housing and financial bubble of 2008. But that’s gone too.

The current account deficit is only about half of what it once was. And as America’s oil industry coaxes more and more crude from the ground, there will be fewer US dollars headed overseas to buy energy and a lower current account deficit as a result.

This will mean less buying of US assets by the foreigners… and “excess liquidity” to float asset prices. The energy boom will not buoy up asset prices; it will help sink them.

 

china-foreign-exchange-reservesEven though “hot money flows” into China are reportedly on the upswing again, even China’s foreign exchange reserves have dipped slightly of late – click to enlarge.

 

Image captions by PT

Charts by: St. Louis Federal Reserve Research, Tradingeconomics, StockCharts

 

The above article is from Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

QE Is Dead… Long Live QE!

Guest Post by Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners


1107-blog

Source: Pixabay 

[N]othing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations and passionate attachments for others should be excluded, and that in place of them just and amicable feelings toward all should be cultivated. The nation which indulges toward another an habitual hatred or an habitual fondness is in some degree a slave.

– George Washington’s farewell address

Dear Diary,

QE is dead. Long live QE!

This time it was the European Central Bank that bought the drinks. US investors bellied up to the bar and helped themselves; the Dow rose 69 points. Gold kept slipping.

Since the Fed ended its QE program, the Bank of Japan and the ECB have come forward promising more money for stock markets.

Draghi has faced increased pressure to do more to support a slowing euro-zone economy after the Bank of Japan last week unexpectedly announced it would add the equivalent of another $730 billion to its balance sheet.

And at the end of its two-day policy meeting yesterday, the ECB announced a plan to buy another €1 trillion in asset-backed securities. This will bring the ECB’s balance sheet back to 2012 levels.

Broken Promises

According to the standard narrative, the US is on the road to recovery, as Japan and Europe struggle.

Globalization? Forget it. The US has apparently “decoupled” from the rest of the world. And now Japan and the euro zone need more QE.

The story is appealing. But untrue. The US has not and cannot decouple from the rest of the world. The US is struggling too.

That was the real message from the midterm elections. The Democrats had promised a lot. They hadn’t delivered. The voters – whose real incomes have been going down since the turn of the century – knew the truth.

Now it’s the Republicans’ turn to make promises they can’t keep. They can’t keep them because it will take major changes to turn the economy around. Voters don’t really want any major changes. And the Republicans don’t plan to make them anyway.

Giveaways and special privileges have zombified the electorate. It doesn’t want anything different. It just wants more.

What would be different?

Easy: a flat income tax rate, a neutral foreign policy, and a balanced budget.

Any chance of those things? Did you hear Mitch McConnell promise them? Would a single member of Congress vote for them?

Russia has a flat income tax rate of 13%. Simple. Easy. Cheap to administer.

A flat tax would save billions of dollars and help businesses, investors and households. But Congress will never vote for a flat tax because it would mean giving up its power to hand out special favors.

That is what makes a national election at least as uplifting as professional wrestling – and not just because the contestants can be gaudy and breathtakingly stupid. Sometimes there’s something really at stake: the private interests of the elite against the public interest of everyone else.

A “Savage” Threat

As for a neutral foreign policy, we could just butt out and watch the Sunnis and Shia kill each other without our help or our heavy artillery. That might be good for them and good for us, but it would be bad for the security industry.

But wait… There is “a savage global terrorist threat that seeks to wage war on every American,” said Mitch McConnell and John Boehner in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.

The terrorists don’t seem to be gunning for the Swiss.

Why not?

“Avoid foreign entanglements,” said Washington, thinking ahead. But today, the city named after him – and especially its northern Virginia suburbs – never met a foreign affair it didn’t want to get entangled in.

A balanced budget?

Oops… have we said something wrong?

The professional economists in the room are covering their mouths and suppressing giggles.

What a terrible mistake that would be, they will tell you. We have to encourage unbalanced budgets. We need to lure people to spend money – citizens, corporations and the government – not save it.

Ordinary Americans are wisely dragging their feet on this; US household net debt has gone down since 2007. But corporations and the government are doing stout service in the name of increasing debt slavery.

Why is it supposed to be a good idea to spend money you don’t have?

Well, there is something called the “paradox of thrift.” The paradox is that saving may be good for an individual, but it is bad for an economy as a whole.

When a single person saves, he improves his personal finances. But when many people save, consumer spending goes down. Then sales go down… profits go down… and the entire economy disappears down some uncharted rat hole.

Failed Policies

That’s why Martin Wolf said Japan has “too much” savings in Wednesday’s Financial Times.

Like so much of modern economics, the “paradox of thrift” is nonsense.

Savings gives families a cushion against disaster. It also gives them the capital they need to improve their standard of living.

On our farm, for example, we have a woodpile about 50 yards from the kitchen door. In the winter, we spend a fair amount of time just bringing in firewood.

So, we put aside some savings… and use the money to build a woodshed closer to the house. Time saved. We can live more comfortably (a higher standard of living) and we have time available to do other things (more household output).

The same thing happens in an economy. Money spent is money gone forever. But money saved and invested is money that increases our standard of living, raises wages and adds to our wealth.

The US, Japan and Europe are still stimulating consumption and discouraging saving.

In Japan, this has been going on for more than 20 years – with little to show for it aside from the world’s highest government debt-to-GDP ratio. These policies have failed everywhere. That is one of the reasons the American voter turned against the Democrats; he held them responsible.

But they are extremely popular with Wall Street – the single biggest source of funding for Mitch McConnell’s reelection campaign. Over the last five years, the Fed has added $3.6 trillion to the financial system, much of it passing through or coming to rest on Wall Street. Whatever campaign contributions it took to support the unlocking of the Fed’s vault must have been the most successful investment ever.

QE dead?

With that kind of adrenaline pumping in Wall Street’s veins, it will be amazing if we don’t have more of it.

Regards,

Signature

Bill

Further Reading: Bill delves deeper into the world of money, power and wealth in his new project, The Bill Bonner Letter. We’ll automatically add you to Bill’s mailing list when you pick up a copy of his latest book, Hormegeddon. To read a full review… and find out how to get access to Bill’s new project… follow this link.

Triumph of the Zombies

Guest Post by Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners 

1106-dre-blog

Source: Wikipedia

The best thing about human beings is that they stack so neatly.

Frank Underwood, House of Cards

 

Dear Diary,

This morning, before we left for New York, there were at least 20 big trucks parked around the square in front of our building in Baltimore. Crews dressed in black unloaded boxes, wires, booms and derricks… filling up the sidewalks with equipment of all sorts.

“What’s going on?” we asked at the office.

“They’re filming that TV show House of Cards. It’s supposed to take place in Washington. But this looks like Washington. And it’s much cheaper and easier to film here.”

The characters on the show – politicians, journalists and Washington fixers and Capitol Hill apparatchiks – are unscrupulous, opportunistic, merciless, murderous and nasty. We had to stop watching; it was too much like real life. Except that most of the people who play these parts in real life are not nearly as clever, bold or attractive.

When we were 10 years old our teacher told us that any one of us could grow up to become president. We looked around the room and wondered. But now, seeing who gets elected, we believe she was right.

No impediment – moral or intellectual – is such a handicap that it prevents getting elected. No character failing, no matter how grave, stands in the way of the Capitol or the State House. No lack of charm, intelligence or humor prevents a successful career in politics.

It was remarked of Hubert Humphrey that the only thing standing between him and the presidency was a heartbeat. But a beating heart is the only real requirement, too.

Of course, that’s also the only requirement for voting…

Looking Out for No. 1

Every half-wit and chiseler has suffrage. In a properly functioning democracy, people with a personal interest in the outcome excuse themselves. They have a conflict of interest: between what is good for them and what is good for everybody else.

That is still the protocol for civilized groups, be they boards of governors or church vestries. People with a dog in the fight “declare an interest” and go wait outside until the vote is over. But in modern politics, everybody gets to vote, no matter how many dogs they have scrapping for handouts.

And guess what? They vote their own interests.

That is the conclusion of Jason Weeden, a lawyer and psychology researcher, and Robert Kurzban, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. They wrote a book about it, The Hidden Agenda of the Political Mind.

As Weeden and Kurzban put it in the New York Times on Monday:

Most people aren’t ideologically pure, and most don’t derive their opinions from abstract ideologies and principles. People are more strongly influenced by the effects of policies on themselves, their families and their wider social networks. Their views, in short, are often based on self-interest. […]Unemployed people are more than twice as likely as people working full time to want unemployment benefits increased. African-Americans are by far the most likely proponents of affirmative action and government help for African-Americans. Rich white men are especially likely to oppose income redistribution.

What do you expect from such a government? Everyone pretends to be acting for the good of the country – politicians and voters alike – and they are all looking out for number one.

The newspapers reported that Tuesday was a big day for Republicans. But it was a bigger day for zombies. Red states… blue states… the zombies won everywhere. As you know, zombies do not produce; they take from producers. Politics is their method of choice.

A Country for Old Men

Yesterday, we explained how young people get a bum deal. Over time, more and more special interest groups find ways to use government to keep out new competitors. The young are always new. They are shut out.They can’t get a job because the economy isn’t growing. Since 2000 the US economy has grown at an average rate of just 1.8% a year – only half the average rate of the second half of the 20th century.

Part of the reason the economy won’t grow is because old people have already claimed too much output. Debt and debtlike social welfare costs depress growth. Old people already hold existing jobs, too.

And it’s tough to start a business, because the geezers have stymied competition with high hurdles to new entrants – regulations, licensing, certifications, insurance, taxes and labor rules.

The old folks make up for their lack of energy and imagination with treachery and cunning. They usually have the candidates in their pockets before Election Day.

Old people have accumulated property and privileges. They vote for people who promise to help them keep what they’ve got. And the cleverest of them also bid for the candidates directly.

That’s how Mitch McConnell raised $31 million for his reelection campaign. The Blackstone Group, for example, was his single biggest contributor. It put in $227,000. Wall Street ponied up $2.1 million. The insurance industry tossed McConnell another $1.2 million bone.

What return did they expect on their investment? We don’t know. But Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman – 67 years old – is surely expecting something.

Creative destruction can wait. McConnell, 72, urged voters to support Republicans in the elections to “end gridlock.” This was similar to President Obama’s fraudulent appeal to support “change.”

But change is the last thing either of them wants to deliver. They’re at the top; they want to stay there.

Senator McConnell’s top five donors, in addition to Blackstone, include two other Wall Street firms, JPMorgan Chase and Elliott Management, and two health care colossi, Humana and Kindred Healthcare.

Together, they put in nearly half a million dollars. The return on investment must be huge. A single grid, locked up nicely by McConnell and his cronies, could earn billions in profits for these companies.

Surprising, to us at least, is that the security industry was so cheap. According to OpenSecrets.org, it invested only $23 million in buying candidates in the midterms.

But the security industry does such a good job of scaring the voters, and it has such a complete lock on Capitol Hill, that it doesn’t need to buy the candidates. They are already bought and paid for.

Most voters make their decisions like investors – based on fear, greed and self-interest. They fear Ebola, ISIS and drug-crazed loonies. And they want free pills, a better retirement than they could afford and cheap cable TV.

They vote for whomever makes the most convincing promises. This year it was the Republicans.

Regards,

Signature

Bill

Further Reading: As Bill writes in his new book, Hormegeddon. Zombification happens when “growth rates slow as much of the society’s energy is diverted to unproductive uses. In short, more and more money goes to zombies.”

This kind of insight is far beyond what you get in most books about economics. And it opens up an entirely different way of seeing the world. That’s what Hormegeddon is all about. And it’s fast become an “underground best-seller.”

For a full review… including details of how to access a very special new project Bill is working on… go here now.

“Hi, This Is Michelle Obama …”

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

 

Going Broke

“Hi, this is Michelle Obama…”

You hear the most amazing things on the streets of Baltimore. On Election Day, a loudspeaker mounted on a white van makes its way up and down the streets with a recorded message.

As near as we could make out, Mrs. Obama was urging grown-ups to vote. As they say on Wall Street, she was “talking her book.” The political elite needs the voting masses like a tractor-trailer needs diesel fuel – to get where it is going.

In the Wall Street Journal last week our spirits were buoyed when we realized that we had more life left than we thought. New figures show a man who reaches age 65 will likely live to be 86.6 years old – a full two years more than the last forecast.

Two more years? What will we do with them? Run for public office? Learn a foreign language? Rob a liquor store and serve 24 months in jail? Wait. There must be a cloud to go with this silver lining. “The new estimates […] could eventually increase retirement liabilities by roughly 7%,” says the Journal.

The last time we looked, the US was already so far underwater it was almost sure to get the bends. According to GAAP accounting, Washington owes about $212 trillion – most of it in money it doesn’t have – to pay pensions and health care benefits.

If people are living longer, those liabilities must increase. Let’s see, 7% of $212 trillion… Hmmm… You can do the math as well as we can. The new total should be about $15 trillion more. And if that is so, what does it mean for government pension and health care systems throughout the developed world?

What it means is that they are all going broke. Led by those aging pacesetters: the Japanese. Yes, in the race to see which modern, debt-funded social welfare state will go broke first, Japan is in the lead.

 

1-Japan-soc-secProjected cost of social security benefits, Japan

 

Armed Robbery

As longtime Diary sufferers already know, the essence of government is armed robbery. Coaxed to the polls by Michelle, voters may fantasize that they set the course for the United States of America. But it is the elite who are in the driver’s seat.

That is our observation … and the conclusion of two university studies reported recently in these pages. The public merely votes for whichever candidates have done the best job of hoodwinking it.

Then the elite use the police power of the state to transfer wealth and power from the voters to themselves. Which is why the paramilitary buildup of local police forces is so alarming: It suggests they are going to strong-arm us all.

In the old days, they were unapologetic about it. Even as late as the 19th century, Napoleon’s army stomped over Europe with Liberty, Equality and Fraternity on its lips. But larceny was in its heart. The soldiers of the Grande Armée stole everything they could cart away.

Modern government demands more fraud than force. Capitalism depends on complex, trusting relationships and long-term fixed investments. Stealing things outright disrupts it. Output goes down. Nations that have no respect for the requirements of capitalism have weak economies. And weak economies can’t afford much firepower.

That was what led China and Russia to abandon their Communist creeds in the late 20th century. Command economies are weak economies, and weak economies can’t compete militarily.

 

2-mil-spendGlobal military spending 2013

 

Wolves and Lambs

After the French Revolution, almost all major countries found they needed to make the common people feel that they were in charge of government. And after Bismarck, political parties found they needed to offer the voters some form of social welfare. Otherwise, they faced a “revolt of the masses.”

That is what turned today’s governments into huge kleptocratic insurance companies. They run grossly inefficient health care and pension programs; the elites steal a large part of the cash flow (sugar subsidies, QE, Fannie Mae, pharmaceuticals, bailouts, etc.).

This model has worked reasonably well for the last 150 years. Capitalists added more meat to the average man’s diet and more leisure to his time. Wealthier, he demanded… and was able to support… increasingly ambitious insurance programs.

But Bismarck’s model reached its peak in the last half of the 20th century. In Europe and the US, substantial real income gains ended in the 1970s. The old Fords and Rockefellers were gone. And the new capitalists were so fettered with taxes, rules and regulations that they found it hard to move ahead.

Debt and demography, too, reduced growth rates. But people still wanted more benefits. They looked to the government and the credit industry to supply them. Presidents Johnson and Nixon cut the dollar loose from gold in 1968 and 1971 – making it possible to go deeper into debt than ever before.

As benefits rose, the more important they became to the people receiving them… and the more costly they became to the governments. Politicians found they could not raise taxes or cut benefits. All they could do was borrow more. As is recounted superbly by former Reagan budget adviser David Stockman, in the fight for balanced budgets in the early 1980s the Republican Party took a dive.

Thereafter, there was no serious opposition to deficits. By early in the 21st century, more than half of the voters were receiving support from the government. The wolves outnumbered the lambs at the polling stations; the dinner menu was a foregone conclusion.

In the US, cutting military spending could still finance social welfare spending. But the security industry too has been turned into a giant part of the insurance complex – with millions of wolves relying on jobs, contracts, health care and retirement benefits.

And now – with graying populations, falling birthrates, heavy debt and slow growth – claims rise. The insurance company model is headed for a bust.
The good news from last week’s life expectancy numbers is that we have a good chance of living long enough to see it.

 

3-Medicare_&_Social_Security_Deficits_ChartThe pre-programmed end of the welfare state – click to enlarge.

 

stv-171_bismarckGerman chancellor, General Otto von Bismarck – the inventor of the welfare state

(Photo via Wikimedia commons)

 

Charts by: Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (IAA), Korea Herald, Wikipedia
The above article is from Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

How to Bend, Stretch, and Break the Law for Fun and Profit

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

Credit — unlimited by real money, real savings, real output… or real demand — leaks into all the corners of commerce. As time goes by, everything it touches begins to bend, warp, or rot.

In a healthy economy, with a limited amount of money, everyone is careful about wasting it.

Government deficits are limited, so as to avoid driving up interest rates; programs financed on credit are funded reluctantly… and spending is controlled. Private borrowers, too, clutch their wallets tightly; they know their purchasing power is limited.

Unlimited credit…creates unlimited opportunities for chicanery.

Lenders watch their steps; they don’t have unlimited funds to lend out. They study balance sheets and ask questions. Their eyes narrow when a potential borrower walks in the door. They sweat when he walks out with their money. Borrowers and lenders alike fret and worry.

Unlimited credit, which nobody earned, nobody saved, and nobody really ever expects to be paid back, is nobody’s problem. It creates unlimited opportunities for chicanery.

Here, I describe a few. This is meant to entertain and inform, by the way, not to encourage criminality or recklessness.

Get Free Food

“Numerous times, I’ve been offered a deal that’s tough to refuse,” my chief researcher, EB Tucker, tells me.

Many people receiving food stamps would like to buy something they can’t get at the grocery store… And they’re ready to bargain.

These days, “food stamps” are actually preloaded plastic cards. You use them with a code, like you would a debit card.

“Say the card is loaded with $400 in funds for ‘food assistance,’” EB explains… “They offer me use of the card for $0.50 on the dollar of benefit used. I could take the card to Whole Foods and buy grass-fed beef tenderloin filet for $50 a pound. I can also buy sustainably harvested Maine lobster tails and a bevy of side dishes. Total cost $400. Swipe the card, enter the pin, and I’m out the door.

“The card holder just wants $200.” That’s not the only story EB shared…

“Yesterday I was at the CVS in Venice Beach…

“The guy in front of me appeared moderately homeless… meaning he’s not afraid to spend several nights outside sleeping on the beach but probably has a dysfunctional relationship somewhere that yields sporadic indoor sleeping benefits. He was telling the other guy in line, ‘Yeah, man, I just got to this town yesterday… I’m starving man.’

“He bought four candy bars, a bag of M&Ms, a bag of gummy bears, and a glass-bottled Pepsi. He used a benefit card with a picture of mountains on it that said, in bold, ‘Nevada.’”

The food assistance program is “needs dependent.” The top benefit level is $1,200 a month. That’s for a household of eight people. It’s not a lot of money, but enough to keep you from starving.

But surely all of the 46 million food stamp recipients aren’t in danger of starving… We’re feeding 75% more people today than we were in 2007. You can qualify for food assistance if you own a $1 million home and drive a Mercedes Benz (39 states have no limit to vehicle value in their needs assessment).

The trick is you can’t have gross annual income of more than $14,940. But….you can be using a retirement or pension plan to pay for your home and car expenses. Or you set up a business. You drive the company car. You live in the company-owned house. You use a company credit card for your business expenses. Your business may never make much money and never pay you very much. But so what? The needs assessment only addresses income and cash in the bank.

Go on Disability

I have a younger cousin who is either on disability… or angling to get on it. What is wrong with him? He claims he has a “bad back”… but I think he is just lazy and shiftless. He is strong as an ox.

One day he helped me carry a heavy stove up a flight of stairs. But maybe that’s what happened to his back!

When the crisis came in ’08-’09, the number of people with bad backs suddenly shot up. At one point, twice as many people were added to the disabled list as to the employment rolls. Exact numbers are hard to get, but the total number of people receiving disability benefits rose 45% since the crisis began. It’s around 20 million today.

Most of the increase comes from people with psychological or musculoskeletal problems, both very hard to prove or refute. In one county, Hale County, Alabama, one out of four working-age people is apparently either a cripple or a mental defective.

Benefit levels vary. If you’re a construction worker over 50, and you hurt your back, you don’t have to undergo “retraining.” You’ll be considered 100% disabled for the rest of your career, such as it is.

“I don’t know what she makes moonlighting… but I’m certain it’s not included on the income line of her need assessment.”

The typical Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefit is about $1,200 per month. But your spouse will get another $300 or so… and you get about another $300 for each minor child. It adds up… get disability with a spouse and four children, and you’ve locked down $2,600 per month… with no taxes withheld! In Baltimore, that’s about equal to a job that pays $4,000 a month – well above the national average.

And you can still get food aid and rent assistance (Section 8), too.

EB, ever vigilant on the low-life side of town, has some insight into the rent assistance programs:

“One of my rental houses has been occupied by the same tenant for four years. She’s fantastic and appreciates how we take care of her. Her rent is $1,119 a month, including water. She pays $83 a month and Section 8 pays $1,036.

“Every nine months, we get a letter stating that her needs have been assessed and her payment has changed by $2 or $3 either direction. She gets food stamps, SSDI, and Section 8 rental assistance. She has a job, though…

“How do I know? Because three years ago I was on a double date with my girlfriend at the time and another couple. We were out in Ybor city. It’s a seedy part of Tampa that’s rich in Cuban history. I personally like it and have bought property on the northern boundary.

“The four of us were walking down the street and I see my tenant with an older gentleman… They just don’t look right together. She looked different, though: huge stilettos and a wig.

“She saw me and jumped up and came running down the street to hug me. She began assuring my girlfriend that she knew me as her landlord and I was the best landlord she’d ever had.

“I don’t know what she makes moonlighting… but I’m certain it’s not included on the income line of her need assessment.”

So, let’s see, a former breadwinner with a bad back, a spouse and four children might tap into the following benefits:

  • Food Assistance: $700 per month
  • Rent Assistance: $1,500 per month
  • Disability Income: $2,600 per month
  • Total: $4,800 per month = $57,600

… with no withholding for taxes. It’s nice work if you can get it.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: In today’s issue of The Daily Reckoning email edition, readers received a chance to discover a better (and more dignified) option than welfare to get stuff for FREE. In fact, this one offer could have shown you 127 ways to get most of the things you want or need, absolutely FREE. It’s part of the larger discussion going on in the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition. Get in on the discussion for yourself. Sign up for The Daily Reckoning, for FREE, right here.

Fatten Up Your Pets: A Survival Guide to Digital Apocalypse

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

Here in France, the weather has turned bad. It is rainy and cold, with the temperature below 60 degrees. Our thoughts turn gloomy… we give the cat some extra food.

“It seems to be happening all over the whole world,” said a friend. “The climate is changing. Here in this part of France, it used to be reliably sunny and warm in the summertime. Now, you never know what you’ll get.”

Some people believe the “global warming” hypothesis. Others are convinced the globe is cooling.

“Yes, that is what is really going on,” says another friend. “The Earth’s climate has little to do with carbon emissions. They are just a drop in the ocean, from a climate point of view.

“What really matters is the sun. I’m greatly simplifying, but when the sun’s radiant heat is strong, the world warms. When it is weak, it cools. We’ve been in a warm period. Now, we’re entering a weak period.

“It’s not global warming you have to worry about. It’s global cooling. And it will be a catastrophe much greater than the financial catastrophe caused by Janet Yellen and the Fed.”

Today, south of the Loire River, in the summer of 2014, it looks as though he may be right. So, we turn away from the looming manmade disaster caused by the feds… to the looming natural disaster caused by the sun. And to disasters generally.

As longtime readers know, we are connoisseurs of disaster. Just as some people have a palate for wine, we have a keen nose for disaster.

Yes, we are the Robert Parker of catastrophe. We have sampled hundreds of varieties. We roll them around in our brain and pick out the subtle differences. We remember the little nuances. We can smell one coming a mile away.

Will “global warming” cause a major disaster? Maybe. But what interests us most is the following thought:

“There are an infinite number of known unknowns and unknown unknowns — any one of which could cause a disaster.”

In many ways, we are more vulnerable to a disaster than at any time in human history.

What might cause a major disaster? Weather… war… disease… famine — the horsemen of the Apocalypse are still with us.

But now we have iPhones instead of the horse and plow…

Imagine a few years of colder-than-usual summers in the Northern Hemisphere and droughts in Australia and South America — the only substantial food producers south of the equator.

This could easily reduce the world’s food output by 10%. Stocks would quickly be drawn down to the point where there was nothing left.

What would people eat?

And here we turn our attention to the obvious: There are many more people around than there used to be.

The last major disaster happened in France in 1940. The Nazis invaded and overwhelmed the French Army. Complete chaos followed. Everyone who could took to the roads and headed south to escape the invading army.

It was a political and military disaster. It was a social upheaval. But it did not cause millions of civilian deaths. Because 70% of the French still lived on farms, they had a safety net that worked.

There were no extensive government welfare programs. People were still used to looking out for themselves. They stocked wheat and potatoes. They knew how to grow a garden. And even if they lived in a city, they usually had close relatives on a farm not far away.

For thousands of years, they had grown accustomed to protecting themselves from famine. Cows, sheep, horses — all could be turned into dinner. In extremis, so could pets, rats and pigeons.

The French still recalled the siege of Paris in 1870, when restaurants served up rat, cat and dog… as well as animals from the zoo. Cotelettes de chien aux petits pois (dog ribs with peas) was a favorite.

But today in France, as in the U.S., most people live in vast urbanized conglomerates. They have only a few days of food in stock. To get more, they depend on a sprawling, complex and delicate system of “just in time” shelf stocking.

This depends on a number of things — any one of which could render the entire system inoperable.

First, there must be enough food produced to feed the world’s population…

There are seven billion people alive today — twice as many as there were in 1940. And the world’s output of food is just enough to feed them. In the simplest accounting, should food output decline by 10%, as many as 70 million people could starve.

Nor is the food where people need it. It is not on small farms spread throughout the countryside. It is on large farms — often a continent away from the people who will eat it.

Fuel is vital. And as Gary North showed in the run up to the Y2K non-disaster, the transport system is regulated and controlled by computers, which are vulnerable to their own disasters.

Experts say a large electromagnetic pulse could fry the switches, shutting down electricity and electronic communications for as long as six months.

Fourteen years ago, North calculated that such a shutdown could leave millions dead.

But this could be a much bigger disaster today. A breakdown in the Internet… or in the computer systems that operate credit cards and ATMs… would leave 320 million unmedicated Americans wandering around in cold, dark malls… unable to communicate or do business with one another… with no way to get money or to spend it.

Remember, our money system today is no longer based on either coins or paper money. It is a system of credit that depends on electronic transactions to keep track of who owes what to whom.

If the electronic system goes down… so does the economy. Then our safety-net institutions will fail, too.

In the U.S. today there are roughly 100 million people who depend on handouts from the government, including those on Social Security. Those handouts are delivered electronically. Many of these people typically have no savings, no supplies of food or medicine, no gardens, no fuel.

In a matter of hours, they would be desperate.

And of course, then there is the fiat money system. As we recently saw in Zimbabwe, when money loses its value the economy falls apart.

Workers do not bus for nothing. Producers do not produce. Truckers do not truck. The shelves at Walmart, so recently groaning under the weight of products from all over the world, suddenly are stripped bare.

That is when we’ll be glad we have so many fat pets!

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

ONE OF THE ALL-TIME GREATEST INVESTMENT MYTHS EXPOSED

Men Believe What They Want to Believe

 

Let’s begin with a quote in Latin. That will put us in the right mood – reaching for the eternal verities:

 

Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt.

 

piggybankAs Martin Wolf recently informed us:  Cautious savers no longer serve a useful economic purpose

 

That was penned by Julius Caesar in De Bello Gallico, his account of the Roman conquest of Gaul.

We didn’t know what it meant either, until last night. In case your Latin is a little rusty, we will give you a little WD-40. It means “Men willingly believe what they wish to be true.”

At least, they believe it as long as they can…

As long as stocks rise, for example, they believe the economy is recovering nicely… and that they will get richer and richer just by owning little pieces of someone else’s business.

 

 

caesarJulius Caesar, a keen study of human nature. His insights into the frailties, foibles and vanities of men were a major factor in the success of his wars of conquest.

 

The Problem with “Investing”

They call it “investing.” But that is mere flattery. Someone else already did the investing when they built the factories and developed the business.

“Investing” means you are doing something that will result in more or better products and services in the future… something that improves productivity and makes us better off.

When someone buys shares in a company in an IPO, he is investing his capital to help that company create future production. But when you buy someone else’s shares in the secondary market (on an exchange) all you’re doing is buying out someone else’s position and allocating your savings to some financial instrument.

Will the price of your shares go up? Or down? Who knows? One business grows. Another shrinks. You cannot consistently know, in advance, which will be which.

And taken together, the shares in a nation’s businesses are unlikely to consistently grow at a faster pace than the economy. In the US, for example, over the last six years, real GDP growth has averaged 0.9% a year. But stocks have gone up more than 130% in the US.

How is that possible? Well, first, earnings rose. Businesses ditched expensive labor… halted new projects… trimmed down… and boosted profit margins. They also benefited from low-cost financing, which reduced their interest expenses.

Then the liquidity produced by QE and ZIRP needed a place to go. It could not get to the consumer, because households were still cutting back on debt and wages were actually going down. So, it stayed in the financial sector, pushing up asset prices.

Result: stock prices far in excess of GDP growth.

 

S&P and GDP

S&P 500 Index with real GDP roughly indexed to 1000 at the beginning of the observation period – via St. Louis Ferderal Reserve Research – click to enlarge.

Perverting the System

But you were probably concerned about our garden party here in France, weren’t you? Well, despite the drippy forecasts, the rain held off. What a lucky break! The guests could spread out on the lawn. Otherwise, they would have had to squeeze into the house.

Among the guests was an attractive French woman in her 70s, an economist…

“I am so annoyed by Monsieur Piketty. He has become famous. The rest of the world must think we French economists are a bunch of idiots. Imagine … Keynesianism … the class struggle … the envy of the rich … it’s as though these were new ideas that hadn’t been thoroughly discredited. I don’t know why they take Piketty seriously in the US. I thought American economists were smarter than that…”

We rose to defend our countrymen:

“Oh … no. American economists are as dumb as the rest of them. They all seem to believe capitalism needs to be carefully controlled. By them, of course. Then they control and pervert the system… it blows up… and they blame it on capitalism. I think there is a catastrophic episode of that coming down the pike.”

“They distort asset prices with QE and ZIRP. Then people invest their money foolishly – because they are reacting to the distorted asset prices. Just look at the US stock market. It is near an all-time high… even though the economy is barely growing. The prices are based on two things that can’t possibly continue: cost cutting and zero-interest-rate policies. Stock prices could easily be cut in half.

“But this time, it’s not just a few foolish investors who will lose money. It will be millions of ordinary investors and business people… and households… and governments that depend on tax revenues.

“We could be looking at a major problem. And it will be blamed on capitalism…”

Fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt,” our guest concluded.

“Yes, madam, the canapés are very nice,” we replied.

 

pic_giant_042314_SM_Piketty-Gets-it-WrongNeo-Marxist Piketty: warming up long discredited and truly bad economic ideas (he has that in common with Keynes actually). No wonder etatistes all over the world love him.

(Photo via orf.at / Author unknown)

 

The above article is from Diary of a Rogue Economist originally written for Bonner & Partners. Bill Bonner founded Agora, Inc in 1978. It has since grown into one of the largest independent newsletter publishing companies in the world. He has also written three New York Times bestselling books, Financial Reckoning Day, Empire of Debt and Mobs, Messiahs and Markets.

Why the Government Views You As Collateral Damage

The illusions, mistakes and misconceptions of central planners take their toll in a great variety of ways — mostly as costly nuisances.

Occasionally, when they are particularly ambitious, they make the history books.

Napoleon’s march on Moscow. Mao’s great famine. The Soviet Union’s 70-year economic experiment. These fiascos are caused by well-meaning, smart public officials. They are the Hell to which the road paved with good intentions leads.

The pretension of the central planner is that he knows a better future — one that he can design and bring about.

Sometimes, a mistaken public policy can be reversed or abandoned before it has done serious harm. Mostly, however, a combination of special circumstances makes correction impossible. The disastrous policies are reinforced until they finally reckon themselves out in a catastrophic way.

Large-scale planners fail because they believe three things that aren’t true.

First, that they know the exact and entire present state of the community they are planning for (wants, desires, hopes, capabilities, resources); second, that they know where the community ought to go (what future would be best); third, that they are capable of creating the future they want.

None of those things is more than an illusion. Together, they constitute what F. A. Hayek called “the fatal conceit, that man is able to shape the world around him according to his wishes.”

Full knowledge of current conditions would require an infinite amount of real information. As 19th century philosopher, Samuel Bailey, wrote in 1840, it would require “minute knowledge of a thousand particulars which will be learnt by nobody but him who has an interest in knowing them.” The planners have nothing like that. Instead, they rely on a body of popular theories, claptrap and statistical guesswork.

As to the second point — that they are blessed with some gift that tells them what the future should be — we pass over it without argument.

No one really believes that people in the United State Congress or the French National Assembly or in the bureaucracies and think tanks of these nations have anything more to guide them than anyone else. Which is to say; all they have is their own likes and dislikes, prejudices and fears, and self-serving ambitions.

Each man always does his level best to shape his world in a way that pleases him. One wants a fat wife. One wants a fortune. One wants to spend his time playing golf. Each will try to get what he wants depending upon the circumstances.

And the future will happen.

The pretension of the central planner is that he knows a better future — one that he can design and bring about. The god-like vanity of this assertion is staggering. No one really knows what future is best for humankind. People only know what they want.

I presume that the best future is the one in which people get what they want… or at the very least what they deserve. A man burning in hell may want ice cream; it doesn’t mean he will get it. But the central planner presumes to know not only what he wants, but what he should have.

It is scarcely worth mentioning, additionally, that the central planner’s hands are as empty as his head. He has no ice cream to give anyone. Where individual plans and evolution will take us collectively, no one knows. Fate will have the final say. But the central planner will have his say first, disrupting the plans of millions of people in the process.

He certainly has no ‘amor fati’ … a faith in, and an affection for, Fate. It would put him out of business.

Instead, he steps in to impose his own version of the future. And as soon as the smallest bit of time and resources are shanghaied for his ends rather than those of individual planners, the rate of natural, evolutionary progress slows. That is, the millions of private trials that would have otherwise taken place are postponed or canceled. The errors that might have been revealed and corrected are not discovered. The future has to wait.

Even when they are applied with ruthless thoroughness, central plans inevitably and eventually go FUBAR. No ‘workers’ paradise’ ever happens. The War on Drugs (or Poverty… or Crime… or Terror… or Cancer) ends in a defeat, not a victory. Unemployment does not go down. The ‘war to end war’ doesn’t end war. The Domino Theory falls; the dominoes don’t.

Or, if any of these grand programs ‘succeeds,’ it does so by undoing previous plans often at a cost that is far out of balance with the reward. World War II is an example of central planning that seemed to work. But the Allies were merely nullifying the efforts of more ambitious central planners in Germany and Japan.

Generally, life on planet Earth is not so ‘rational’ that it lends itself to simpleminded, heavy-handed intervention by the naïve social engineer.

Sure, we can design bridges. Houses too. And particle accelerators. But we cannot design economies. No more than we can invent real languages. Societies. Customs. Markets. Love. Marriages. Children. Or any of the other important things in life.

Large-scale central planning can be effective, but only by pulverizing the delicate fabric of evolved civilized life.

Not to overstate the case, however, it is also true that humans can design and achieve a certain kind of future. If the planners at the Pentagon, for example, decided that a nuclear war would be a good thing, they could bring it about. The effects would be huge. And hugely effective.

This extreme example reveals the only kind of alternative future that the planners are capable of delivering.

Large-scale central planning can be effective, but only by pulverizing the delicate fabric of evolved civilized life. It is a future that practically no one wants, because it means destroying the many different futures already in the works — marriages, businesses, babies, baptisms, hunting trips, shopping, investment, and all the other activities of normal life.

Not all central planning produces calamities on that scale, of course. But all, to the extent they are effective, are repulsive. The more they achieve the planners’ goals, the more they interfere with private goals, and the more they retard or destroy the progress of the human race.

Still, this view I am putting forth is hardly accepted wisdom.

Most people would dispute that it is wisdom at all. It is a minority view, held by such a small group that all of its members together could be soused with a single bottle of good whiskey.

Regards,

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: In today’s issue of The Daily Reckoning readers saw a chance to grab a copy of Bill’s new book before it is available on Amazon or anywhere else. Just a small part of being a reader of the FREE Daily Reckoning email edition. Click here to sign up right now and never miss another great opportunity like this.

The Idea of America

Our attention today is on neither the Old World nor the New one — but the ever-changing, never-fully-explored idea of America.

“Proud to be an American” says one bumper sticker. “One nation — indivisible,” says another. America was, of course, founded on the opposite principle…the idea that people were free to separate themselves from a parent government whenever they felt they had come of age. But no fraud, no matter how stupendous, is so obvious as to be detected by the average American. That is America’s great strength…or its most serious weakness.

In a DNA test, your correspondent is more likely to be mistaken for an IRA hit man than a Baltimore drug dealer.

After September 11, so many people bought flags that the shops ran short. Old Glory festooned nearly every porch and bridge. Patriotism swelled every heart.

Europeans, coming back to the Old Country, reported that they had never seen anything like it. A Frenchman takes his country for granted. He is born into it, just as he is born into his religion. He may be proud of La Belle France the way he is proud of his cheese. But he is not fool enough to claim credit for either one. He just feels lucky to have them for his own.

America, by contrast, is a nation of people who chose to become Americans. Even the oldest family tree in the New World has immigrants at its root. And where did its government, its courts, its businesses and saloons come from? They were all invented by us. Having chosen the country…and made it what it is…Americans feel more responsibility for what it has become than the citizens of most other nations. And they take more pride in it too.

But what is it? What has it become? What makes America different from any other nation? Why should we care more about it than about, say, Lithuania or Chad?

Pressed for an answer, most Americans would reply, “Because America is a free country.” What else can be said of the place? Its land mass is as varied as the earth itself. Inhabiting the sands of Tucson as well as the steppes of Alaska, Americans could as well be called a desert race as an arctic one. Its religions are equally diverse — from moss-backed Episcopalians of the Virginia tidewater to the holy rollers of East Texas to the Muslims of East Harlem. Nor does blood itself give the country any mark of distinction. The individual American has more in common genetically with the people his people come from than with his fellow Americans. In a DNA test, your correspondent is more likely to be mistaken for an IRA hit man than a Baltimore drug dealer.

America never was a nation in the usual sense of the word. Though there are plenty of exceptions — especially among the made-up nations of former European colonies — nations are usually composed of groups of people who share common blood, culture, and language.

Americans mostly speak English. But they might just as well speak Spanish. And at the debut of the republic, the founding fathers narrowly avoided declaring German the official language…at least, that is the legend. A Frenchman has to speak French. A German has to speak the language of the Vaterland. But an American could speak anything. And often does.

Nor is there even a common history. The average immigrant didn’t arrive until the early 20th century. By then, America’s history was already 3 centuries old. The average citizen missed the whole thing.

Neither blood, history, religion, language — what else is left? Only an idea: that you could come to America and be whatever you wanted to be. You might have been a bog-trotter in Ireland or a baron in Silesia; in America you were free to become whatever you could make of yourself.

“Give me liberty or give me death,” said Patrick Henry, raising the rhetorical stakes and praying no one would call him on it.

“Give me liberty or give me death,” said Patrick Henry, raising the rhetorical stakes and praying no one would call him on it. Yet, the average man at the time lived in near perfect freedom. There were few books and few laws on them. And fewer people to enforce them. Henry, if he wanted to do so, could have merely crossed the Blue Ridge west of Charlottesville and never seen another government agent again.

Thomas Jefferson complained, in the Declaration of Independence, that Britain had “erected a multitude of New Offices, and set hither swarms of Officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.” Yet the swarms of officers sent by George III would have barely filled a mid-sized regional office of the IRS or city zoning department today.

Likewise, the Founding Fathers kvetched about taxation without representation. But history has shown that representation only makes taxation worse. Kings, emperors and tyrants must keep tax rates low…otherwise, the people rise in rebellion. It is democrats that really eat out the substance of the people: the illusion of self-government lets them get away with it. Tax rates were only an average of 3% under the tyranny of King George III. One of the blessings of democracy is average tax rates that are ten times as high.

“Americans today,” wrote Rose Wilder Lane in 1936, after the Lincoln administration had annihilated the principle of self-government…but before the Roosevelt team had finished its work, “are the most reckless and lawless of peoples…we are also the most imaginative, the most temperamental, the most infinitely varied.”

But by the end of the 20th century, Americans were required to wear seat belts and ate low-fat yogurt without a gun to their heads. The recklessness seems to have been bred out of them. And the variety too. North, south, east and west, people all wear the same clothes and cherish the same decrepit ideas as if they were religious relics.

And why not? It’s a free country.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning

Ed. Note: This essay was prominently featured in the Daily Reckoning’s free email edition — a free newsletter that deals with all of the issues facing America’s broken political and financial system. If you’re not yet receiving the Daily Reckoning email, sent straight to your inbox every day around 4PM, you can sign up for free, right

This Should Make Every American Angry…

By Bill Bonner, Chairman, Bonner & Partners 


Around the world, stocks have been doing well. Even our top recommendation, beaten-down Russian stocks, are moving up fast. The Russian market rose 14% in May (leaving it still down about 9% for the year).

Why?

Maybe world debt levels hitting mega highs has something to do with it. Over $100 trillion was the last estimate we saw.

Meanwhile, why worry? Volatility is ultra low. The VIX measures investors’ worry levels by looking at implied volatility in the options market. The index just posted its lowest monthly close since 2007.

Investors are not fearful. And not necessarily greedy, either. They are just complacent, sure that nothing bad will happen.

Keys to Daddy’s Car

The source of that complacence is not hard to find. Governments and central bankers are all working night and day to make sure nothing changes.

As we keep saying, the US financial industry should have been spanked hard in the crisis of 2008. Instead, like a spoiled rich kid after a traffic accident, the financial industry got bailed out of jail and was given the keys to a new car… with a bottle of whisky under the seat!

When the price of money goes down banks’ profit margins go up; by moving to zero interest rates, the Fed handed them higher earnings. And by guaranteeing the debt of the weakest institutions, the Fed gave big bonuses to the worst managers.

Now, the alcohol is taking effect. All around the world markets stagger. Economies slur their words. Investors have severe memory loss. Businessmen can’t tell up from down. And the poor consumer gets a headache every time he checks his bank balance.

We have tried to chronicle the oddities of today’s zero-interest world. Everywhere we look we see something strange… something that shouldn’t exist in a sober world.

The talking heads and bleeding hearts are up in arms about wealth inequality. But the real cause of inequality, as we have illustrated, is largely the feds’ bubbly credit booze.

A Rigged Game

Some people have access to the free money. Others don’t.

Those with the access tend to be in the financial elite. It is no wonder the rich get richer; the game is rigged.

We saw that most recently in the housing market. Supposedly, the housing market is recovering. But when you take a closer look at the market you find that houses that sell to the 1% are soaring. Sales volumes and prices for the 99% – the overwhelming majority of the population – are flat or falling.

Likewise, the averages distort the real picture in earnings and household wealth too. Huge increases for the 1% pull the averages up. But the typical person… and the typical household… are slipping backward.

As we reported yesterday:

Since the feds took gold out of the currency – in 1968 – the typical man has lost about $3,000 of income every decade, when the numbers are adjusted for the “official” inflation rate. Adjust them to a more realistic measure of inflation, and the loss has been closer to $5,000 a decade.

Even on the official numbers, since the end of the recession of 2009, the typical household has lost $5,000 in wealth.

Low interest rates have made it possible for corporations to borrow more money than ever before. There’s now more corporate debt outstanding than mortgage-backed securities.

And guess which corporations benefit most from these low rates?
The weakest borrowers, of course. They are the ones that normally pay the most for credit. Now, with all rates squeezed like passengers in a Japanese subway car, the unwashed borrowers are cheek by jowl with the prudent, well-funded ones.

The curiosities continue through every corner of the markets – with dozens of barely profitable billion-dollar companies that wouldn’t exist at all were it not for nearly-free capital.

Regards,

Bill

Further Reading: Bill and his son Will have been fighting Washington corruption for decades. Twenty-eight years ago, they sued the US Secretary of the Treasury in a class-action case. They lost. But they continue to try to level the playing field in favor of ordinary Americans. Will recently prepared a free report on how to escape the rigged system and build wealth independently. If you haven’t already, read it here now.

POWER, STATUS & WEALTH

The US Government Explained In One Chart

Tyler Durden's picture

The oligarchic pilfering and capital misallocating and squandering network of insiders known as “government” truly deserves a picture rather than 1000 words.

 

 

Still, here are a few words via Bill Bonner from Acting Man blog, who explains that…

Government’s primary concern is not to protect its citizens or their economy. Instead, it aims to transfer more power, status, and wealth to the elite who control it (the oligarchs).

And to do that, it must keep the masses (the poligarchs) sedated. As Charles Hugh Smith, chief writer at OfTwoMinds.com, explains:

The State has two core mandates: enforce quasi-monopolies and cartels for private capital, and satisfy enough of the citizenry’s demands for more benefits to maintain social stability. If the State fails to maintain monopolistic cartels, profit margins plummet and capital is unable to maintain its spending on investment and labor. Simply put, the economy tanks as profits, investment and growth all stagnate. If the State fails to satisfy enough of the citizenry’s demands, it risks social instability.”

The feds will be the borrowers of last resort. But the money won’t be invested in a brighter future. It will be pilfered and squandered.

And then what?