QUOTES OF THE DAY

“Men in authority will always think that criticism of their policies is dangerous. They will always equate their policies with patriotism, and find criticism subversive.”

Henry Steele Commager

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

H. L. Mencken

“Don’t vote – it only encourages them.”

Jack Paar

“Central planning doesn’t work. A little bit of it is a drag. A lot is fatal.”

Bill Bonner

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Our Financial Situation Could Always Be Worse

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Yahoo Finance reports:

Elizabeth Warren has a plan for everything. Some of those plans are expensive. With Warren emerging as a front-runner in the Democratic presidential contest, Yahoo Finance tallied the cost of her plans.

Altogether, the Massachusetts senator’s agenda would require $4.2 trillion per year in new federal spending, and a like amount in new taxes, if she paid for everything without issuing new debt. The federal government currently spends about $4.4 trillion per year, so Warren’s plans would nearly double federal spending.

How would Ms. Warren pay for all this new spending? So far, she’s proposed a wealth tax on rich people… and a 7% surtax on corporate revenue over $100 million.

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A NATION BUILT ON LIES

“The greatest want of the world is the want of men — men who will not be bought or sold; men who in their inmost souls are true and honest; men who do not fear to call sin by its right name; men whose conscience is as true to duty as the needle to the pole; men who will stand for the right though the heavens fall.”Ellen G. White

The world becomes more chaotic by the day. Good luck finding a politician, business icon, or religious leader who is not bought and sold by corporate or special interests. Finding truth telling honest leaders in today’s world is virtually impossible. Charles Foster Kane, a quasi-biographical portrayal of William Randolph Hearst, is a fine representation of the billionaire clique that pull the strings in our warped, deceitful, greed driven, materialistic world.

Citizen Kane’s thematic portrayal of the American Dream is far more germane to our society today than it was when made in 1941. Financial affluence, material luxury, wielding power over others, and controlling the opinions of the masses through propaganda media, did not guarantee happiness or fulfillment for Kane or todays oligarchs. Kane was happiest as a poor child, living with his parents, playing in the snow on his sled – Rosebud.

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Why Trump Is President

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

The show is Trump, and it is sold-out performances everywhere.

– Donald J. Trump, Playboy magazine, 1990

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – Commentators and political analysts have consistently misread our president.

They try to understand him using traditional political categories. Is he a conservative or a liberal? Is he a Republican or a Democrat? A big spender or a tightwad? Jeffersonian or Hamiltonian? An empire builder… or a constitutionalist?

Those who dislike him say that he is a conniving, self-obsessed moron who has no idea what he is doing. Those who like him say that he is a shrewd, instinctive patriot who stands up for what is good and right in the face of desperate opposition.

Neither of them give the man enough credit. He is more than that… and less.

He is the man for whom the stage was set… He had merely to show up on time, strut to the center, and pronounce the lines written for him.

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How the Government Became a Deep State Puppet

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

YOUGHAL, IRELAND – When you’ve got a chainsaw, you cut down a tree.

And when you’ve got control of monetary and fiscal policy… you go to work on an economy.

In both cases, you leave them in pieces.

Knuckleheaded Experiment

The difference between the next crash and the last two is that this time, the feds have less room to maneuver. At the end of an expansion cycle, like the one America has had for almost ten years, the federal government should be running a surplus.

That’s the whole idea of countercyclical fiscal policy. When the economy is hot, you’re supposed to be cool, with budget surpluses. When the economy cools off, you then heat it up with more spending.

But currently, the U.S. government is conducting a pro-cyclical fiscal experiment.

It’s late in the expansion cycle, but it’s already borrowing heavily, with annual deficits already programmed to reach $2 trillion by 2028. And that’s without a crash or a recession.

Good luck with that.

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America’s Two-Party System Is Done

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

The most remarkable thing about the latest federal budget is that no one seems to find it remarkable.

As far as we know, no member of Congress read it. And the president—who is supposed to be the nation’s chief executive officer—has only the dimmest idea of what is in it.

And yet, it establishes three astonishing new things.

Boondoggles for Everybody

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The Antidote to Optimism

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

It is always brightest before they turn the lights out.

You can quote us on that.

Just when you thought things couldn’t get better… guess what?

They don’t. They go dark as a dungeon.

Antidote to Optimism

Our task is to show that however wonderful things may appear in today’s markets and economy, they may not be all that great.

We put our backs into this grim work neither for love nor for money, but simply out of a sense of stern duty.

If not us, who? If not now, when?

Someone must put forward an antidote to the optimism now raging through markets around the world.

Someone must make the case for cynicism, suspicion, and mockery.

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Stocks Could Fall 80% From Here

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

Like a “Closing Out Sale” that never seems to end, people are beginning to think that this “Stock Market Surge” may not be totally on the level.

Unlike an honest bull market, it may never end…

Classic Top?

But in many ways, it looks more and more like a classic top.

Stocks keep going up… and more and more investors, getting in the mood, think they will go up forever.

The last time we saw anything comparable was at the end of the 1990s.

Then, it was the tech-heavy Nasdaq that had caught fire. It burned hot from 1995 to 2000, with prices up five times.

But then, when there was no more furniture to throw onto the fire, it quickly went cold.

The Nasdaq fell 80%; the ashes remained cold for the next 10 years.

The flames were only rekindled after the Fed and other central banks added $15 trillion to the world’s supply of dry tinder.

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Save Those MAGA Hats!

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

“Do you still have that physical bitcoin I gave you?”

A couple of years ago, a friend gave us a physical bitcoin, suggesting we should take an interest in cryptocurrencies.

“I hope you didn’t lose it. That coin is now a collector’s item. It sells for more than $10,000 on eBay.”

We searched high and low. We couldn’t find it.

Did we give it to our grandson? Did it end up in the laundry? Did we give it to a porter as a tip?

It must be somewhere. We’ll keep looking.

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The Idea of America

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

“Elizabeth,” I asked this morning as my wife climbed out of the pool. “How would you describe that sea turtle we saw on the beach?”

Pausing for a moment, she replied, “Rotating its slow and majestic flippers, it ground its way slowly and inexorably toward China…”

The sea turtle was headed east. Whether China was its destination or not, I don’t know. I only know that it was about to leave the Latin America isthmus, from the west coast of Nicaragua, and put out to sea when a muscular, brown young man picked it up and carried it back up on the beach. He and his friends had dug a big hole in the sand where the turtle was placed.

At night, we often see the dim light of flashlights along the beach. “It’s the locals looking for turtle eggs,” Manuel explained. “It’s illegal to take them, but…” Manuel shrugged his shoulders.

Sea turtles are protected by international convention. But here in the wilds of Nicaragua, they still end up in the soup from time to time.

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Change… Whether You Want It or Not

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

We’re trying to avoid distractions. What is really going on, we wonder? What is really important, we ask?

Donald J. Trump came to Washington, D.C., promising to “drain the swamp.”

Instead, the swamp is draining him.

The media entangles him in fake news kudzu. Establishment bugs nip away at him like mosquitoes at a bayou picnic. Special interests and Deep State operatives slither around him threateningly… while Deep State heavies try to drown him in accusations.

Business as Usual

We thought “The Donald” would quickly make peace with the swamp.

He has no fixed convictions… no ideology or principles to get in the way.

We figured he’d go along with the insiders… and become the biggest swamp critter of all.

And when he stuffed his cabinet with generals and Goldman guys, we thought he was on his way.

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The Empire Needs an Emperor

Type Swiss President “Doris Leuthard” into Google.

You will get about 450,000 results.

Do the same with Donald Trump, and the number is closer to 396 million.

That’s 87,900% more references.

The world’s press is as fascinated by President Trump as it is indifferent to President Leuthard.

What will Ms. Leuthard do next?

What outrageous new tweet will she send out? Whom will she attack?

No one seems to care…

And yet, though we have never met either one of them, we have a suspicion.

Ms. Leuthard is probably decent, earnest, and wholesome. She has never killed anyone, and it would take her a while to even get used to insulting people.

Mr. Trump, on the other hand, is in another category. Impervious to ridicule as to the fires of hell, he is especially well suited for the role he has been given.

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The Great Wailing

Authored by Bonner & Partners’ Bill Bonner, annotated by Acting-Man’s Pater Tenebrarum,

Regret and Suffering

BALTIMORE – Victoribus spolia

So far, the most satisfying thing about the Trump win has been the howls and whines coming from the establishment. Each appointment – some good, some bad from our perspective – has brought forth such heavy lamentations.

 

Oh no! Alaric the Visigoth is here! Hide the women and children! And don’t forget the vestal virgins, if you can find any…

 

You’d think Washington had been invaded by Goths, now raping the vestal virgins (if there are any within the Beltway) on the White House lawns while the Capitol burns to the ground.

Trump is happening, of course. And the very people who made it happen are now in various stages of regret…  suffering… or hysteria. What a delight it is to see them in such pain!

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Trump’s Momma Didn’t Raise No Fool

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

We left off yesterday after exploring one of two major directions for the next four years.

President Trump could really “go to war” with the Deep State. And lose.

If this were to happen, investors would almost certainly get caught in the crossfire.

But don’t worry. This is extremely unlikely. The only way to bring the Deep State to heel is to cut off the EZ money funding that feeds it.

Mr. Trump has not even suggested it. It’s not going to happen, not voluntarily at least.

Today, we explore the more likely possibility: The Lion of Queens will lie down with the swamp foxes of the Potomac… and together they will feast on the poor little lambs who elected him.

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Trump Is No Match for the Deep State

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

The inauguration proceeded with all the pomp and ceremony of a coronation, a university commencement, or a mafia funeral.

No American who cares deeply about the future of his country could have watched it without laughing.

Solemn Ceremony

All the great and the good were assembled…

The Establishment, the elite, the insiders… the generals, the politicians, the captains of industry and commerce, and representatives of all three branches of government… gathered in solemn ceremony to witness the swearing in of their new chieftain.

We saw the happy new crowd paying its respects to the outgoing gang; we saw the old faces creased with worry and regret. And there were new dresses to be admired… and all the glitterati of the Deep State, including the wives, husbands, and children of the powerful.

So seriously did commentators take the event that we half expected to see a hearse coming down Pennsylvania Avenue.

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Why the Feds Will Lose Their War on the Markets

Guest Post by Bill Bonner

DELRAY BEACH, Florida – The markets continue to dawdle. Not much conviction in either direction.

We’ve already looked at the War on Poverty, the War on Drugs and the War on Terror.

So let’s move on… using our new lens to look at another of the feds’ fake wars.

Dirty War

No war was ever officially declared against the markets.

But for four decades the feds conducted covert operations… a dirty war in which they’ve tried to mislead, obstruct, and suppress market forces.

They used fake money, fake savings, and fake interest rates to confuse investors, businesses, and consumers.

They didn’t say so directly, but their purpose was to give out false signals so that people would change their behavior.

“Demand” was too weak, they said. What to do about it?

They flooded the system with phony savings (credit).

Price signals were distorted. Credit limits seemed to disappear. Debt limits were eased.

Then, in 2008, the war turned hot… with the feds actively and overtly holding down interest rates to push up stock and bond prices.

In response to the crisis they caused – by encouraging too much debt in the housing sector – they claimed that the “free market” had failed.

They were just responding to the “emergency,” they said.

Soon, everybody got in on the act – expressing an opinion about how high (or low) interest rates should be.

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