David Stockman on the Status of the Everything Bubble Created by the Fed

By David Stockman

Status of the Everything Bubbles

The Wall Street Journal recently brought word that a professor Efraim Benmelech of the finance department at Northwestern University thinks the Fed is hurting housing and the consumer too much. Opined he,

…….those higher interest rates are making mortgages more expensive and leading to fewer home sales. That leads to less spending on appliances, paint and other home goods, because people commonly buy those items ahead of a sale and after moving.

“The actions of the Fed are leading to lower consumption,” he said.

You don’t say!

Then again, has it occurred to the good professor that the years and years of ultra low mortgage rates engineered by the Fed were totally unnatural, uneconomic and not sustainable? Continue reading “David Stockman on the Status of the Everything Bubble Created by the Fed”

Maybe the Fed Too Was Trolled

Guest Post by Jeffrey A. Tucker

The Federal Reserve – and central banks the world over – played a crucial role in making lockdowns possible and weaponizing the panic of politicians. As the lender of last resort and the provider of liquidity for the entire federal government, it removes normal fiscal restraint. It writes checks that cannot bounce to fuel governments in normal times but is always ready to make possible emergency spending too even if existing revenue and public consensus is otherwise absent.

Starting with the $2.2 trillion CARES act of March 27, 2020, and continuing for a full year, Congress massively subsidized and hence funded and rewarded states that locked down, enabling stimulus payments to businesses and individuals amounting to some $10.4 trillion over two years. It was all funded by debt that the Federal Reserve added to its balance sheets, even while the Fed drove interest rates back to zero in the hope of avoiding economic collapse. Continue reading “Maybe the Fed Too Was Trolled”

David Stockman on Why the Mirage of Lowflation Era Is Coming to an End

Guest post by David Stockman

Lowflation Era

To paraphrase Milton Friedman, everywhere and always deflationary commodity outages and shortfalls are turned into general price inflation by the foolish monetary “accommodation” policies of the central banks. And the present pot-boiler inflation is no exception.

Y/Y Change In PPI for All Commodities, 1947-2022

Continue reading “David Stockman on Why the Mirage of Lowflation Era Is Coming to an End”

It’s Game Over for the Fed—Expect a Monetary “Rug Pull” Soon…

Guest Post by Nick Giambruno

a Monetary “Rug Pull”

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts casually toss around the word “trillion” without appreciating what it means.

A trillion is a massive, almost unfathomable number.

The human brain has trouble understanding something so huge. So let me try to put it into perspective.

If you earned $1 per second, it would take 11 days to make a million dollars.

Continue reading “It’s Game Over for the Fed—Expect a Monetary “Rug Pull” Soon…”

A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It’s Imminent

Via International Man

by Nick Giambruno

Rare Paradigm Shift

Although many don’t realize it, interest rates are simply the price of money.

And they are the most important prices in all of capitalism.

They have an enormous impact on banks, the real estate market, and the auto industry. It’s hard to think of a business that interest rates don’t affect in some meaningful way.

Continue reading “A Rare Paradigm Shift With Huge Implications… 5 Reasons Why It’s Imminent”

The Fed’s Fiddling While the Inflation Bonfire Incinerates the Dollar

Via Birch Gold Group

The Fed Fiddling While the Inflation Bonfire Incinerates the Dollar

From Peter Reagan

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: The rug over stagflation is getting difficult to walk on, hedge fund manager bullish on gold in the current economic environment, and the long shadow of the Ukraine war.

When officials admit there’s trouble, you know there’s REAL trouble

There is a general and broad trend of so-called “financial experts” downplaying problems until those problems are painfully clear to even the most disinterested spectator, wreaking havoc across the economy. It’s the economist equivalent of turning up the radio in response to a pesky rattling coming from under the hood of the car.

Continue reading “The Fed’s Fiddling While the Inflation Bonfire Incinerates the Dollar”

JUST PADDLING WHILE THE EMPIRE BURNS

The phrase “fiddling while Rome burns” is an intriguing idiom, referencing the great fire which ravaged Rome for six days in 64 A.D. and the legend that Nero, one of the most sadistic, decadent, and cruel rulers of all-time, instead of taking action to stop the fire, played his lyre while composing a song about Rome’s destruction. The Roman historian Tacitus wrote that Nero was rumored to have sung about the destruction of Rome while watching the city burn but it’s likely this was just a myth.

The fire destroyed seventy percent of the city and left half the population homeless. There are those who believe Nero set the fire on purpose, especially after he used land cleared by the fire to build his Golden Palace and its surrounding pleasure gardens. Being a soulless autocrat at heart, Nero did what all feckless politicians do, he blamed the Christians (an obscure religious sect at the time) for the fire and had many arrested and executed.

Bill Kristol on Twitter: "1952 years ago: Nero fiddled while Rome burned. Today: GOP bigs fiddle while the Republican Party burns. https://t.co/gnFUu1MoaJ" / Twitter

Whether this story is true or just a parable, the messages are pertinent throughout history, and never more so than now. Occupying one’s time doing inconsequential things while a catastrophic event is underway is the ultimate in leadership failure. Focusing on trivial matters while your people are suffering during a time of crisis is the mark of an ineffectual irresponsible leader or one whose true purpose is to burn down society so it can be “built back better” in the form of a communist totalitarian state ruled by a globalist elite cabal.

Continue reading “JUST PADDLING WHILE THE EMPIRE BURNS”

Analyst Reveals the Number One Reason to Buy Gold Now

Via Birch Gold Group

Analyst Reveals the Number One Reason to Buy Gold Now

This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Always expect the Fed to mess up, $2,175 as the next target, and palladium during the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

Buy gold, says analyst, because the Fed can be expected to mess up

Keith McCullough, founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, says that the economy is heading towards something they label a “Quad 4,” a state of emergency warranting government intervention. A Quad 4 means disappointing growth and inflation, year after year. McCullough expects growth and inflation to slow, causing a period of major earnings losses in the stock market.

Continue reading “Analyst Reveals the Number One Reason to Buy Gold Now”

Fed Fights Inflation by Doing the Worst Possible Thing

Via Birch Gold Group

Fed Fights Inflation by Doing the Worst Possible Thing

Since the Fed can’t rely on Covid as an excuse to explain away its inflation tomfoolery, now Chairman Jerome Powell actually has to come up with a real solution.

And that solution must work, since the Fed is entrusted with keeping inflation and rates under control. Everyday Americans’ lives hang in the balance.

So, just how big an inflation “tidal wave” does Powell have to stop?

Officially, the latest inflation report came in at 7.9% in February 2022 (it’s probably accelerating even faster now). You can see how much faster inflation is rising compared to the last two decades of economic activity on the chart below (and it isn’t pretty): Continue reading “Fed Fights Inflation by Doing the Worst Possible Thing”

FOURTH TURNING 2022 – BAD MOON RISING

“Try to unlearn the obsessive fear of death (and the anxious quest for death avoidance) that pervades linear thinking in nearly every modern society. The ancients knew that, without periodic decay and death, nature cannot complete its full round of biological and social change. Without plant death, weeds would strangle the forest. Without human death, memories would never die, and unbroken habits and customs would strangle civilization. Social institutions require no less. Just as floods replenish soil and fires rejuvenate forests, a Fourth Turning clears out society’s exhausted elements and creates an opportunity.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

Coronavirus: Is Germany doing enough to slow the outbreak? | Germany | News and in-depth reporting from Berlin and beyond | DW | 14.03.2020

“Institutions will be increasingly bossy, limiting personal freedoms, chastising bad manners, and cleansing the culture. Powerful new civic organizations will make judgments about which individual rights deserve respect and which do not. Criminal justice will become swift and rough, trampling on some innocents to protect an endangered and desperate society from those feared to be guilty. Expect a loss of personal privacy. Fourth Turnings can be dark times for the free spirit: Just as one kind of official may have new authority to do something for you, another kind—some hastily deputized magistrate—may have new authority to do something to you.”Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

It’s been almost a year since my annual look ahead at the upcoming year. Last year’s article FOURTH TURNING DETONATION was a big picture overview of where we stood during the thirteenth year of this ongoing Fourth Turning Crisis. I had given up trying to make specific predictions because the twenty-year length of a Crisis period does not lend itself to specificity within a given year. My comment at the beginning of the article was:

“Predicting the actual events which will occur over a short-term time frame is a fool’s errand, so I prefer to try and discern the direction and amplitude of the ongoing Crisis to gauge how we should prepare for what is coming.”

Continue reading “FOURTH TURNING 2022 – BAD MOON RISING”

The Blind Leading the Clueless

Guest Post by Jeff Thomas via International Man

Blind leading the clueless
(Gregory Mankiw, an economics professor at Harvard, interviews Janet Yellen.)

Most of us watch television. In part, we seek to be entertained, but, additionally, we often seek to be enlightened as to “what’s going on.” In a difficult era like the present one, in which some of the most prominent countries are experiencing the onset of an economic crisis, virtual cartoon characters are competing as choices in political contests, governments are becoming increasingly rapacious and a police state is developing rapidly, it’s not surprising if the average person questions, “What on earth are they thinking?”

Well, there’s no shortage of media exposure to answer that question. Today, there are a multitude of channels offering 24/7 “news,” from which we may hope to glean some insight as to what the leaders of the world are thinking. Yet, in spite of the endless folderol being offered, the leadership vision remains about as clear as mud.

They don’t want war, but are invading more countries than ever before in history. Political hopefuls are vague at best regarding their proposed platforms for action, yet they attack each other as though they’re reporters for the tabloids. Governments continually speak of their wish to lighten the load on the common man, whilst heaping laws, regulations, fines and taxes on him like never before, and whilst heaping billions in tax dollars on their cronies in the financial industry. They claim to seek greater security for all, but instead, create an endless stream of agencies that have the authority to ignore basic rights and behave more like Mafia shakedown operators than law enforcers. Governments claim to be pursuing a sounder economy, but have created an unprecedented level of debt, that promises to crush the economies of several of the world’s most prominent countries in the very near future.

And so, many people look to the media, seeking answers. Typically a news programme will feature a “panel of experts,” who will debate the latest issues. They rarely reach a conclusion, but do succeed in creating a general impression that one political party is out to destroy the country and that the other (which they represent) is out to save it.

In addition to the panels, the media go straight to the source on frequent occasions, interviewing political and financial leaders. The list of questions is invariably prepared well in advance and the interviewee is never caught off guard. His handlers have prepared his answers for him and, on every occasion, a full plate of predictable reheated rhetoric is served up to the viewer for his consumption.

In these repartees, the interviewer is intended to appear congenial yet probing, yet the questions asked are invariably bland enough for the interviewee to either dismiss them or provide an easy retort. The interviewee is intended to appear as though he is informing the public of policies and procedures that, whilst too complicated for the viewer to fully grasp, are well in hand and will provide solutions in the not-too-distant future. Be patient.

The fact that these solutions never seem to arrive seems to be less relevant than the fact that a new solution is underway. In this manner, the viewer, no matter how badly his life is being affected, continues to sit tight and be hopeful, for, surely, better days are just around the corner.

Incredibly, the average viewer seems to be able to consume endless quantities of this propaganda, year after year, and never say to himself, “Something’s radically wrong here.”

If he were to actually turn off the television for a week or so, stand back, and assess the propaganda as a whole, he might conclude that, in fact, the media acts at the behest of the economic and political leaders, to propagate their message. The “debates” and “pressing questions” are limp at best and never lead to any significant change or improvement. Nor are they intended to. They are pacifiers only.

Worse, the leaders themselves continue to not only fail the public, but to steadily morph the governmental, economic and social systems in a direction that will lead inevitably to a bad end.

It is true, of course, that the citizens of these leading nations are becoming increasingly cynical about their leaders and their own futures, but their reaction to the pablum, after having a good grumble, tends to be to “hope the next administration will be better.” This is very foolhardy indeed. (Once the apple is thoroughly rotten, expect to see only worms inhabiting it.)

But those who sense that they’re being shafted need to vent somehow. And, for this we have political parties. Whether our country has Democrats and Republicans, Tories and Labour, or any other such groupings, those who are elected are under no illusion that they exist to serve those who elected them; they exist to serve the major donors who pay for the elections. And the major donors contribute to both parties, in order to ensure that their objectives are carried out by the candidates who are successful, regardless of their party. The overall plan will continue, full steam, regardless of who’s in office.

But the parties do provide the electorate with targets at which to aim their rubber-tipped arrows. Regardless of which party is in power, liberal voters will complain that not enough is being done for their causes and conservative voters will do the same.

Will one win out over the other eventually? Unquestionably not. The system is designed to remain as is – with endless bickering encouraged, but no actual progress planned.

The most prominent countries in the world are on the cusp of a major economic crisis. With it will come political and social crises and, most certainly, war. The television viewer, if he accepts this at all, will say, “Well, that will teach them. Then they’ll have to admit that our side was right.”

Unfortunately, no. After the inevitable economic crashes, after years of pointless warfare, after increased totalitarianism at home, there will be an eventual end to the strife. When the dust begins to settle, the average person will turn on his television, hoping to see that some answers have been reached.

Instead, what he’ll witness, if he turns on a liberal station, will be pundits stating that, if only there had been more QE and more entitlements, it might have all worked out, but that, instead, there was disaster, as a result of the conservatives.

Likewise, the pundits on the conservative station will expound that all the suffering could have been avoided if the entitlements had been kept in check and the bombs could have been dropped on the enemy earlier. Both liberals and conservatives will return to their corners to dress their wounds and prepare for the next round of polarization against each other.

So, who is it that we blame for mankind’s debacles? Surely, we were tricked by the leaders – the politicians, central bankers, leaders of major industries, etc. Or was it the media that did such a sterling job of packaging up the propaganda that we were unable to see the forest for the trees?

It will matter little, because nothing will be learned and we shall begin the game anew. But if it’s a genuine solution we’re after, yes, that is possible. But that solution depends upon whether we’re prepared to cease to allow the media to provide our reasoning for us. We must be prepared to study our leaders’ actions, to be prepared to be contrarian and, most importantly, to question everything. If not, we ourselves are amongst the blind and the clueless and we can expect an endless cycle of the same dog and pony show.

Editor’s Note: All you can hope to do is to save yourself from the consequences of all this stupidity.

The coming financial collapse is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video. Click here to watch it now.

Click to visit the TBP Store for Great TBP Merchandise

Inflation Is Broken

Guest Post by John Mauldin

Inflation Is Broken

I have been writing for many years that the US in particular and the Western “developed” world in general were approaching a time where none of our choices would be good.

We have arrived. Any choice the government and central banks of the US and the rest of the world make will ultimately lead to a crisis. Just as the choices that Greenspan and Bernanke made about monetary policy created the Great Recession, Yellen and Powell’s choices will eventually lead us to the next crisis and ultimately to what I call The Great Reset.

I believe we have passed the point of no return. Changing policy now would create a recession as big as Paul Volcker’s in the early ‘80s. There is simply no appetite for that. Further, the national debt and continued yearly deficits force monetary policy to stay accommodative.

Continue reading “Inflation Is Broken”

ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE?

“A really efficient totalitarian state would be one in which the all-powerful executive of political bosses and their army of managers control a population of slaves who do not have to be coerced, because they love their servitude.”Aldous Huxley, Brave New World

“Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”George Orwell, 1984

Huxley and Orwell were contemporaries. Huxley’s dystopian masterpiece was published in 1932 at the outset of the rise of totalitarianism, while Orwell’s was published in 1949 after 65 million people perished in a World War and Stalin had already murdered tens of millions of his own citizens. Those were dark times. They also coincided with Edward Bernays 1928 publication of Propaganda, in which he revealed the existence of an invisible government who used propaganda to manipulate the minds of the public to insure those controlling the levers of power were able to engineer their desired outcomes.

Continue reading “ARE YOU LOVING YOUR SERVITUDE?”

BOILING POINT

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”H.L. Mencken

Boiling Point | On the Media | WNYC Studios

After writing a particularly depressing article where I come to a logical conclusion, based upon the factual evidence of all previous Fourth Turnings, I always wonder whether I’m being too pessimistic and peddling doom, like many of the clickbait websites. The conclusions I reached at the end of my last two articles were particularly gloomy and made me wonder whether I was going too far. I thought maybe I was too pessimistic and my predictions of civil chaos and global disorder were overblown.

“A failure to meet the challenges ahead with bravery, grit, good judgement, adherence to our Constitutional principles, and a fair amount of luck, could lead to a defeat from which we will never recover. No one knows how and when the climax of this Crisis will play out, but the acceleration towards our rendezvous with destiny is in motion.” Fourth Turning Accelerating Towards Climax – May 10

It just so happened I published my last article on May 24, predicting a 2nd Civil War. I figured we might have a couple years to prepare, as there is likely five to ten years  before this Fourth Turning reaches a climax. Little did I know a black man with a long criminal background, high on fentanyl and resisting arrest in Minneapolis, would be killed by a white police thug named Derek Chauvin, who had seventeen complaints against him over his illustrious career, on the day after my article was posted. Oddly, it seems this murder will be our Fort Sumter/Pearl Harbor of this Fourth Turning.

Continue reading “BOILING POINT”

The Fed Needs Your Help

From E.B. Tucker via Birch Gold

manipulation

It’s hard work keeping an asset bubble inflated. This is the biggest one in human history. The Fed needs your help. And you’re not doing your part.

For starters, you can’t go hoarding cash every time you get worried. The Fed tried to make this clear by pulling large bills from circulation.

$10,000, $5,000, $1,000 and $500 bills went out of circulation in 1969. The $100 bill is the largest denomination today. Those are for foreigners.

The Fed estimates 80% of $100 bills are overseas. 60% of all bills are overseas. It wants foreigners to hold savings in dollars, not you.

Continue reading “The Fed Needs Your Help”

The Cracks in the Financial System Are Getting Bigger…. Here’s What It Could Mean for Gold

Via International Man

financial system

Doug Casey’s Note: In the over 30 years I’ve known him, my respect—and liking—for Frank Giustra has only grown. Not just because he’s a world-class businessman, having built Yorkton Securities into a powerhouse, and then founding Lionsgate Entertainment. More relevant to this interview, he’s a first-rate judge of the markets—one of the best I’ve ever met at seeing turning points and understanding trends.

He’s one of the few financiers in the “Master of the Universe” class that understands gold and economics. Frank knows what he’s talking about. I suggest you read this closely.

International Man: Last time around, the Fed was able to paper over the crisis and create a ten-year bull market in stocks. Is the Fed out of ammo this time?

Continue reading “The Cracks in the Financial System Are Getting Bigger…. Here’s What It Could Mean for Gold”