Tag: election odds

Pre-Election Odds and Market Analysis Update

Guest Post by Duane Norman

hillary-trump-3rd-debate

Its been awhile since we’ve had an analysis on the Presidential election odds and the movements on these odds in the Betfair market.  And there hasn’t been an update because… quite frankly, since the last update, there hasn’t been much to report.  The odds have, for the most part, flip-flopped between 15-20% for Trump, with the inverse (80-85%) going to Hillary, with a less than 1% probability for win designated to the remaining “field” of candidates.  However that all changed over the past few days, as even more Wikileaks from John Podesta’s emails have been released, early ballots are beginning to be counted, and Trump started soaring in the polls.  Once again, the odds are on the move.

Continue reading “Pre-Election Odds and Market Analysis Update”

Post-Debate Election Odds Update

Guest Post by Duane Norman

firstdebatesidebyside_wide-b6740657018a34eb5e0a2a9e7a7a6c818bec6d79-s900-c85

The first Presidential debate of the 2016 election is in the books, and I imagine most of the approximately 100 million viewers came away as underwhelmed as I did.  Facebook posts were made, Twitter tweets were tweeted, both candidates were called liars and idiots, “fact-checkers” were working overtime or not at all, and still, the vast majority of the electorate will go to the polls in November and vote for the same candidate they were going to before the debate. 

But, most importantly… the odds moved.  And moved again.  They were on the move the whole night, just like they were before the debate.  And now, with over 24 hours for the money to process the events of the election, we will revisit the odds on Betfair’s exchange, and see how those with money on the line have repriced the odds.

Continue reading “Post-Debate Election Odds Update”