Tag: fake jobs

Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report

Via ZeroHedge

A superficial take of today’s jobs report would note that both jobs and earnings “blew past expectations, flying in the face of Fed rate hikes”, and while that is accurate at the headline level, it couldn’t be further from the truth if one actually digs a little deeper in today’s jobs numbers.

Recall that back in August, September, and October we showed that a stark divergence had opened between the Household and Establishment surveys that comprise the monthly jobs report, and since March the former has been stagnant while the latter has been rising every single month. In addition to that, full-time jobs were plunging while part-time jobs were surging and the number of multiple-jobholders soared.

Fast forward to today when the inconsistencies not only continue to grow, but have become  downright grotesque.

Consider the following: the closely followed Establishment survey came in above expectations at 263K, above the 200K expected – a record 7th consecutive beat vs expectations –  and down modestly from last month’s upward revised 284K…

Continue reading “Something Is Rigged: Unexplained, Record 2.7 Million Jobs Gap Emerges In Broken Payrolls Report”

AND…THEY’RE GONE

I’ve pretty much harped on the fake birth death adjustment phantom jobs the government adds every month to their reported jobs numbers for years. They are made up jobs. THE DO NOT EXIST. They are numbers on a fucking excel spreadsheet created by a government drone. After the markets close on a sleepy Thursday afternoon, the government scumbags say “Did I Do That????” 

And poof!!! 150,000 fake jobs are deleted from the numbers reported over the last 12 months. The same numbers that moved markets on those particular days. If the true numbers had been reported, the stock market would have gone down. We can’t have that, because the stock market is the economy for Wall Street and the slimy MSM. So it goes.

DO NOT BELIEVE ANY NUMBER SUPPLIED BY THE GOVERNMENT OR THE FED.

Labor Department Revises Away 150,000 Jobs

Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Sep 8, 2016 5:25 PM

“We felt a great disturbance in the [Obama recovery] farce, as if 150,000 ‘everything is awesome’ job-gainers’ voices cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced. We fear something terrible has happened.”

With the swipe of The Labor Department’s pen, 150,000 newly created jobs were ‘revised’ out of existence yesterday.

As The New York Times reports, the U.S. economy likely created 150,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

Continue reading “AND…THEY’RE GONE”

How $1.3 Trillion In Student Debt Broke The “Birth/Death Adjustment” Model

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/15/2015 14:53 -0400

One of the main reasons why the BLS has been massively overestimating job creation ever since great financial crisis, is due to the well-known birth-death adjustment, aka the CES Net Birth/Death Model, which quantitatively is shown on the chart below, has resulted in the “addition” of some 5.3 million jobs, that don’t actually exist, but are merely modeled by the BLS which continues to assume the same new business creation/destruction dynamics that existed before the crisis.

 

The is a big problem with this core assumption, which has follow through effects not only for domestic fiscal policy, but also monetary policy (and explains why despite a 5.1% unemployment, there is zero wage growth, thus keeping the Fed pushing the ZIRP accelerator pedal years later), for the simple reason that as of this moment it is dead wrong.

Here is what Gallup CEO, Jim Clifton, wrote several months ago looking at the trends in new business creation and destruction in the US.

We are behind in starting new firms per capita, and this is our single most serious economic problem. Yet it seems like a secret. You never see it mentioned in the media, nor hear from a politician that, for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births.

 

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that the total number of new business startups and business closures per year — the birth and death rates of American companies — have crossed for the first time since the measurement began. I am referring to employer businesses, those with one or more employees, the real engines of economic growth. Four hundred thousand new businesses are being born annually nationwide, while 470,000 per year are dying.

Continue reading “How $1.3 Trillion In Student Debt Broke The “Birth/Death Adjustment” Model”