Tag: Great Crash

The Coming Great Crash?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

I fully understand that there are now so many calling for a Great Crash of all time as they have during each correction, big and small, for over 30 years, and they just never get it right, even once. Some tout the rise in interest rates. Others look at this chart and nothing else. If there is a Great Crash, then the dollar rises, for you are selling assets for cash. They overlook the fact that in 1929, the US had a balanced budget. The world was buying dollars because Europe defaulted on its debt, which rippled through the financial system, causing 9,000 US bank failures in the United States just as the Mortgage Crisis in the US hit European banks.

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Is the Future Predetermined?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

I am an avid student of history. I noticed from an early age that no empire ever lasts forever. The question I had in my mind was how and why did they fall? I pursued my own course and academics held no answer. I would say there were two incidents when I was in high school that perhaps set me on a course of independent review. I was given The Great Crash to read and nowhere in there could you find one word about government defaults. Later I discovered a copy of Herbert Hoover’s Memoirs and after reading the chapter of events during 1931, I came to realize like so many throughout the centuries that history might be partially correct perhaps, but let us not forget, it was written by the victors to those who tended to record what suited their preferred conclusion to support their theories.

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