Tag: polls are wrong

Will the Polls be Wrong Again?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

I have watched the polls in many instances and they tend to be wrong whenever they are clearly pushing an agenda. They were seriously wrong in Britain regarding BREXIT and once again I believe they will be wrong in this US election of 2020 just as they were wrong in 2016. They are clearly trying to influence people by showing that Biden is the choice of the people. I could not believe when they started that nonsense claiming he was 24% ahead of Trump. There has never been such overwhelming support for any president including FDR in the 1936 election. That to me was clearly an attempt to manipulate the public.

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Why The Polls Are Wrong

Submitted by Cow Doctor

Guest Post by William Briggs

Polls Predict Biden

On the evening of October 29th, The Economist updated their poll-based election forecast model. It gave a 96% chance for Biden to take the electoral college, and it said it was all but certain, greater than a 99% chance, he will win the popular vote.

These are incredible numbers. Yet not unusual.

For instance, on that same night, Nate Silver’s 538 site had a poll average of 52% for Biden and 43.2% for Trump (the other 4.8% going to other candidates and uncertainty). Every poll used in that average had Biden ahead. Two had Biden up 12 points over Trump.

Silver wrote that Trump’s chance of winning were “a little worse than the chances of rolling a 1 on a six-sided die and a little better than the chances that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles,” which he cited as 1 in 10.

There are others beside these two firms, but almost all favor Biden by a large margin.

Silver rightly said, “At this point, President Trump needs a big polling error in his favor if he’s going to win.”

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The Polls Were Horribly Wrong in 2016, Are They Wrong Again?

Written by Nathan McDonald, Sprott Money News

Without a doubt, we are about to head into an incredibly difficult and turbulent period in mankind’s history. I am not trying to be hyperbolic, and I am not trying to scare anyone. However, if you don’t see what is coming in the next couple of weeks, then quite simply, you need to take your blinders off.

The 2020 U.S. Presidential election will take place on November 3rd, which is only eleven days away at the time of writing. The outcome of this election will have an enormous impact on the most powerful and prosperous nation in the world, and thus the entire global economy will feel the rippling effect. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that market participants are scrambling to find any and every clue they can as to whether Joe Biden or President Trump will win.

Turning to the polls once again, people are highlighting how Joe Biden is ahead significantly, but is this accurate? Can the polls be trusted?

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