Automatic Earth with another reality check on the shale gas BOOM!!!
Let’s see – tremendous levels of debt, hype times infinity, Wall Street shysters, douchebags like Aubrey McClendon, delusional drillers, record low prices, high drilling costs, and low EROEI. Sounds like a perfect combination.
Shale Gas Reality Begins to Dawn
It has long been our position at The Automatic Earth that North America is collectively dreaming with regard to unconventional natural gas. While gas is undeniably there, the Energy Returned On Energy Invested (EROEI) is dramatically lower than for conventional supplies. The critical nature of EROEI has been widely ignored, but will ultimately determine what is and is not an energy source, and shale gas is going to fail the test.
As we pointed out in Get Ready for the North American Gas Shock in July 2011, the natural gas situation is not what it seems at all:
The shale gas bubble is a perfect example of the irrationality of markets, the power of perverse short-term incentives, the driving force of momentum-chasing, the dominance of perception over reality in determining prices, and the determination for a herd to stampede over a cliff all at once.
The perception of a gas glut has driven prices so low that none of the participants are making money (at least not by producing gas) or creating value. We see a familiar story of excessive debt, and the hollowing out of productive companies dead set on pursuing a mirage.
Many industry insiders know perfectly well that the prospects for recovering substantial amounts of gas are poor, and that the industry is structured as a ponzi scheme. Still, there has been money to be made in the short term by flipping land leases and building infrastructure to handle gas.
The hype is so extreme that those who fall for it contemplate, in all seriousness, North America becoming a natural gas exporting powerhouse, and a threat to Australian LNG producers, or to Russia’s Gazprom.
This concept, constructed from a mixture of greed and desperation (at the lack of conventional gas prospects), is entirely divorced from reality. (See here for Dimitri Orlovs excellent piece on why Gazprom has nothing to worry about.)
Nevertheless, euphoric hype is extremely catching. Given that prices are driven by perception, not by reality, hype has the power to change the dynamics of an industry, exaggerating boom and bust cycles in practice. The hype has resulted in the perception of glut – that North America is drowning in natural gas. The inconvenient fact that this peception is completely wrong does not alter its power in relation to prices.
Natural gas companies gambling on shale gas have been facing prices so low – far below the cost of production – that all of them have been producing gas unprofitably. The financial risk has been increasing dramatically as the companies have been drowning in debt trying to ride out the rock bottom prices that have been the result of people believing the fantasy. Finally, casualties of the financial shenanigans involved are emerging. It is very likely that there will be many more, as companies that have tried to ride out the low prices go under.
Wolf Richter:
Natural Gas: Where Endless Money Went To Die
Alas, thanks to the Feds zero-interest-rate policy and the trillions it has handed over to its cronies since late 2008, the sweeps of creative destruction have broken down. Instead, boundless sums of money have been searching for a place to go, and they’re chasing yield when there is none, and so theyre taking risks, any kind of risks, in their vain battle to come out ahead.
The result is a stunning misallocation of capital to the tune of tens of billions of dollars to an economic activity drilling for dry natural gas that has been highly unprofitable for years. It’s where money has gone to die. What’s left is debt, and wells that will never produce enough to make their investors whole.
But the money has dried up. And drilling for natural gas is collapsing. Last week, there were only 562 rigs drilling for dry natural gas, the lowest number since September 1999…
.But even if it doubled, it would still be below the cost of production. And if it tripled, it might still be below the cost of production for most producers. That’s how mispriced the commodity has become.
More from Wolf Richter:
Dirt Cheap Natural Gas Is Tearing Up The Very Industry That’s Producing It
The economics of fracking are horrid. All wells have decline rates where production drops over time. But instead of decades for traditional wells, decline rates in horizontal fracking are measured in weeks and months: production falls off a cliff from day one and continues for a year or so until it levels out at about 10% of initial production. To be in the black over its life under these circumstances, a well in the Barnett Shale would have to sell its production for about $8 per million Btu, pricing models have shown.
…Drilling is destroying capital at an astonishing rate, and drillers are left with a mountain of debt just when decline rates are starting to wreak their havoc. To keep the decline rates from mucking up income statements, companies had to drill more and more, with new wells making up for the declining production of old wells. Alas, the scheme hit a wall, namely reality…
…The natural gas business is brutal. The peak in drilling occurred in September 2008 with 1,606 rigs. Then the financial crisis threw it into a vertigo-inducing plunge. After last years mini-peak, the plunge continued…
…Production lags behind rig count, and while rig count for gas wells has been setting new decade lows, production has been rising month after month to new record highs. But lagging doesn’t mean decoupled. And someday…. Oops, it already happened. It has started. Production has turned the corner, and not just in one field, but across the US.
Money has been thrown at the industry, but the notion is dawning that the game is up and that returns will never materialize. The ponzi scheme has reached its natural limit, and investors are waking up to the realization that they have been chasing a fantasy.
Ironically, just as the washout begins, natural gas prices may have bottomed. Conventional natural gas in North America peaked in 2001. Coal bed methane and now shale gas have been revealed to be massively overblown as an energy source. Producers are reaping the consequences of malinvestment and will be going out of business. Demand has been building with the transition from coal to natural gas for power generation. This is an ideal set up for a supply collapse and subsequent price spike.
North America is poised for a huge natural gas shock. Far from being an exporter, North America is going to experience a natural gas supply crunch. Prices will be rising at the same time as peoples purchasing power falls precipitously, thanks to deflation. The structural dependency on natural gas that has been cemented in recent years is going to guarantee maximum pain as prices reconnect with reality.
SSS really losing it now. He previously scorned the EPA as a worthless organization and now denigrates the article because the EPA did not concur.
Do you even know what you believe?
The article is a balanced assessment of the situation in Washington DC and PA. Money talks big guy. Corporations buy off politicians and get what they want. In this case, they get sweet tax deals and loose or no safety requirements.
It’s good to know who the supporters of corporate fascism are on this site. I guess I should have known. You can take the drone out of the government but you can’t take the government mindset out of the drone.
Admin preparing for his next fight:
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LLPOH preparing:
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llpoh
Come up with something original. I already thrashed you and SSS with face battered pictures.
Yawn
llpoh looking in the mirror
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Hey – the scared turtle and the wet-your-pants stuff were good. And of course, this is your reaction upon my arrival:
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The delusion of pussies.
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llpoh
I notice you have tattooes and an earing. Which ear makes you gay?
What are you thaying, Admin? You got thomething againth gayth?
This thread is like a hot chick farting in the pool
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Alluring but disgusting
Classic.
Admin decends to a blizzard of funny pictures. Pathetic. Never once has he addressed the specifics of any of my cogent, thoughful, fact-filled remarks. Not once.
The latest Admin detour. “Corporations buy off politicians and get what they want. In this case, they get sweet tax deals and loose or no safety requirements.” Define the term buy off. Do you mean bribery? If so, cite any proof that that is the case in this instance. If you mean corporations contribute to elected officials who support their best interests, well, name a time and place when any corporation has NOT done exactly that. Just one example. We’re waiting for your wisdom.
From a proud supporter of corporate fascism to a proud supporter of environmental extremism,
SSS
SSS
I’m not used to debating dullards. It’s good to see you are in complete agreement with Mitt Romney – “Corporations are people”.
Are you really so naive that you believe the hundreds of thousands in political contributions to key politicians by corporations and their PACs and lobbyists do not have an impact on legislation? Really? Are you just acting dumb? Or are you really that dumb?
There happen to be hundreds of thousands of corporations in this country. Most of them are small businesses and have never and are incapable of influencing politicians with contributions. Only mega-corporations can do so. Sounds like a great capitalist fair level playing field. Right old man?
You want an example of a corporation who has not made contribution to an elected official to influence them?
You might know him as LLPOH.
BOOOOYAAAA
SSS flubs another 3 foot putt and breaks his putter over his knee.
AWD, an obvious photoshop. Hot chicks don’t fart.
We all love a good big dog fight,
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Too bad we can’t place any bets
AWD
If this was a horse race, they would have already put SSS out of his misery with a bullet to the head as he has three broken legs.
SSS said:
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“From a proud supporter of corporate fascism to a proud supporter of environmental extremism…”
Aye yie yie….
I guess that’s enough shit-stirring for a night?
Enough?
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So the problem is the frickin fluid,so change it.Im really not counting on anything.Were sliding down a big hill.Pickup trucks running in NG sounds good.Some fake jobs for awhile.
I saw Pickens on tv pushing NG,at least someone is trying to push some kind of job creation.
Yes,oil and coal and NG.Bring it on baby!
Im glad me n the wife dont argue like you old married couples.
Fun times!!!
See??? Who needs teevee?
Billy Joe’s pants fell down after witnessing the devastating beatdown Admin applied to the doddering old man of TBP.
Maddie’s Mom
You have been privy to the second time this year when I’ve mopped the floor with Admin’s hairy hide.
The first occurred in the Edward Bernays-Guatemala Coup discussion, which reflected Admin’s inability to put a historical event in proper context. Admin is one of those people who think James Buchanan was largely to blame for the Civil War, when it fact the seeds for that conflict were planted before the ink was even dry on the Constitution.
The second is this thread. The poor guy gets wrapped around the environmental axle about fracking for natural gas and has nightmares about fracking fluid getting into his drinking water, even though he lives 300 miles to the east of where most of the wells are being drilled. Next we’ll hear his version of how fracking in the Bakken shale oil deposits in North Dakota are threatening wildlife in Yellowstone National Park, some 500 miles to the west. Never mind that North Dakota’s state treasury turned a $1 billion dollar profit last year and unemployment in the state is less than 3%.
I love the smell of singed eyebrows in the morning.
Maddie’s Mom
And Admin’s taste in music sucks.
Reminds me of the classic SouthWest airline thread. That was some fun.
New day, new focus.
I don’t know what to believe. Data is manipulated and lying is what everyone does now.
My hubby and daughter both work in the industry. I have concern for DD’s job and have had long before I read this piece. She works with a group directly involved in the North Dakota “boom”.
As for DH, I shared a few snippets with him and he argued with them. All he knows is that his customers are going all out for the nat gas.
Further discussion is pointless, so I have bookmarked this article and we’ll see how things go.
SSS – you beat the Admin down with words. I humiliated him with a series of well-selected pics. If we do not see him for weeks I will not be surprised.
LLPOH & SSS high fiving their victory
Admin – pan back up through the posts. Notice how the fans have voted – my pics have administered an epic beat-down of your lowly selections. SSS has delivered ANOTHER record-breaking ass-kicking – especially since you had to resort to cut-and-paste, which we all know is the last salvo of the vanquished.
Admit it, you are a:
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Considering 28% of Americans have no savings at all; up from 24% last year..http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2012/06/25/Poll-28-percent-have-no-savings-at-all/UPI-63961340643474/.
MA does not waste time on such drivel as this thread has devolved into..Zzzzzzzzzzz.
MA
Muck fell asleep in the middle of a post. Again.
“TPC posts a picture the size of a highway billboard and then exits stage left. Good riddance.” – SSS
Translation: This kid is kicking my ass, thank god he’s gone. Better make a quick insult now!
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Dear sweet, gentle triple S. The picture was an acknowledgement to your advanced age. I’m sorry the others were probably too small for your aged eyes to perceive, but I didn’t think that TBP was worth me manually blowing up images for the forum’s more geriatric members.
I see the argument made great headway while I was gone.
“SSS has delivered ANOTHER record-breaking ass-kicking” – llpoh
I’m confused, at what point did this transpire? All he did was prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he had no idea what he was talking about when it comes to gas production.
Then (not to be outdid) he went on to prove his ignorance in other areas as well.
Usually I enjoy SSS’s posts, and 9 times out of 10 I agree with him, but this thread has just been a giant clusterfuck on his part. Here’s hoping he rebounds safely.
Murky said, “MA does not waste time on such drivel as this thread has devolved into..Zzzzzzzzzzz.”
How do you know it devolved into drivel unless you wasted time reading it, dumbass?
TPC
Just exactly how did this thread turn out to be a giant clusterfuck on my part? Despite the interludes of insults and funny picture avalanches, a TBP specialty, take a look at my replies to Admin’s comments. I repeatedly and directly addressed points that he posted, whether they were his personal comments (rare and stupid) or someone else’s. Repeatedly.
Did he respond in kind, save for calling me a demented old man (let me be clear here, Admin and I are good friends on this site and occasionally descend into vitriolic name calling)? You appear to have picked up well on his attacks on me by using such terms as ……. advanced age …… aged eyes ……. geriatric members (of TBP). Be forwarned, my friend, Admin will turn on you just as quickly as I will.
You seem to be miffed that I didn’t stick precisely to the script of fracking for natural gas. That was quite intentional. Mining in general in this country is under severe, and I mean severe, attack by government bureaucrats and environmental extremists. And they’re winning. So if I ventured off into general discussions about mining, past and present. I think my points are relevant and important AND CORRECT.
Now, if you want me to get back on script about fracking, I will be more than happy to do so. Lay it on me. This old dog CAN learn new tricks. Your move.
I enjoy the flamewars around here, for the most part but sometimes there’s a bit too much testosterone on this thread. My personal rule: When simply tossing shit for tossing shit’s sake, make it clear that’s what I’m doing. Otherwise I make my case as clearly as I can, refute the opposition as simply as I can, then walk away without giving a shit whether anyone agrees with me or not. Having said that, carry on.
PS, I wish there were an edit function on this blog.
” I presume you thought Ford’s cost benefit analysis on Pinto deaths was brilliant corporate management.” -Admin
You sir are a fool. More babies were concieved in the back of hatchback Pintos than were people consumed in fireballs of exploding Pintos.
Your data is flawed.
And you are a BIG FUCKING PUSSY!
crazyivan, I call bullshit. More kids were conceived in the back seat of a ’38 buick than in all the pintos of the world, except for midgets and asians.
Zara
Point taken.
But like the rest here, you change the subject.
The fact here is that normal sized teenagers can comfortably fuck in the back of a Pinto.
Alas! YOU are the fool, Crazy Ivan….
Everyone knows that the Pinto hatchback produced a fraction of those consumed in fireballs…
It was the station wagon that provided soaring fertility rates.
You confuse orange Pintos with Green.
Funny thing about the Pinto (which was a piece of shit). The famous Mustang had exactly the same design. The frame of the Mustang ended at the rear suspension. Aft of that, everything was just sheet metal. Having said that, I loved my 64.5 mustang, which at least looked good and handled good, if you learned how to treat it. The Pinto was just a piece of shit.
PS, Did I say that the Pinto was a piece of shit? I think it was competing for that honor with the Chevy Vega and lost.
What about the AMC Gremlin. Now THERE was a piece of shit.
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[/img]
Llpoh, The main issue with the Gremlin is that it was fucking ugly. AMC had a special talent for producing ugly cars. I don’t think they inherited that from absorbing Studebaker or Nash. I blame Mitt Romney’s dad.
Regarding the Ford Pinto (lol) and the Chevy Vega (moar lolz), and without even mentioning the crap AMC vehicles from that era, I would just like to point out that teh boomers had nothing to do with any of them. Fuck you in advance.
PS, we drove volkswagens
Normal TBP comment thread. Fracking for natural gas turns into the merits and demerits of fucking in the back seat of a 1938 Buick. It’s a wonder we’re not all be locked up as a “grave and present danger” to national security.