Crime rates are dropping dramatically in the last few years. With an ongoing recession the linear thinkers, that run this world, are baffled. They think that hard times would cause more crime. It is not so. What these linear thinkers fail to recognize is that we entered the Fourth Turning in the 2005 – 2008 time frame. Here is how Strauss and Howe describe what happens in a Fourth Turning. Remember they wrote the book in 1997. Crime rates always drop during a Fourth Turning. The author of this article makes a joke about the drop in crime because he has no idea why it is happening. I would suggest he buy a copy of The Fourth Turning so he’ll know what comes next.
A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice.
People support new efforts to wield public authority, whose perceived successes soon justify more of the same. Government governs, community obstacles are removed, and laws and customs that resisted change for decades are swiftly shunted aside. A grim preoccupation with civic peril causes spiritual curiosity to decline. A sense of public urgency contributes to a clampdown on “bad” conduct or “anti-social” lifestyles. People begin feeling shameful about what they earlier did to absolve guilt. Public order tightens, private risk-taking abates, and crime and substance abuse decline. Families strengthen, gender distinctions widen, and child-rearing reaches a smothering degree of protection and structure. The young focus their energy on worldly achievements, leaving values in the hands of the old. Wars are fought with fury and for maximum result.
Eventually, the mood transforms into one of exhaustion, relief, and optimism. Buoyed by a new-born faith in the group and in authority, leaders plan, people hope, and a society yearns for good and simple things.
Why would you be out commiting crimes when the government will give you all the free shit you want?
What government is that?
The Canadian Government for one. You can actually go to the CRA website from anywhere in the world and see how much money you will receive (tax free, no less) if you and/or your spouse have “no income”.
Absolutely, 99 weeks of unemployment benefits and food stamps, or a college loan to attend college full time, why in the world turn to crime.
Wall Street crimes against the middle class have risen dramatically.
Lemme hold a dolla…….
Its like Unemployment figures. The FBI simply drops classification of crimes off the statistics list. If they have fewer cops after layoffs, there are fewer arrests, voila less crime! If CA can’t afford to keep inmates in prison, Judges don’t convict them. Voila, no criminals in LA!
This stinks like a feel good economics report. “Hey look, we are doing GREAT! Obama lowered the crime rate!” Yah, right. Goobermint statistics are meaningless propaganda, nothing more.
RE
“But in previous recessions, in the 1970s and 1980s, the crime rates went up. The difference perhaps was that those recessions were in times of high inflation, giving robbers an incentive to take your money while it still held its value.”
This has to be the stupidest article I’ve read in a long time. This example just struck me as the most ridiculous. Maybe it was tongue in cheek but I doubt it. Does he really think that the common thug thinks about what he steals today will be worth a month from now?!
Just bought a copy of the Fourth Turning after reading part of a library copy.
gunsablazin
Best purchase you’ll make this year.
Jim, your last point about the age of criminals is correct. According to S&H, the Prophet generation (Boomers) commit more crimes than any other generation. That’s why crime rates are highest during their youth/middle age. And, to someone’s point, why Wall Street is full of criminals today.
Today’s youth are a Civic/Hero generation (Millennials). Traditionally, this generational archetype has little criminal behavior. They tend to be good kids who do whatever it takes to correct the wrongs in society. The previous generation of this archetype was the GI Generation.
Not sure if you’ve read S&H’s previous work, Generations. It was from studying the characteristics of each generation that Strauss and Howe realized that the generational patterns actually create societal patterns — the Four Turnings. And, in turn, the events of each turning produce generational traits that continue to repeat. Fascinating stuff.
I haven’t finished “Generations” yet. Wanted to read the earlier foundation before getting to the Fourth Turning.
On crime rates, however, I have a cunning plan. It’s not everyone else in the free shit army. There were those who lose their jobs, then the house, probably a separation or divorce (fuck off, loser!) When there’s “nothin’ left to lose” … I can imagine one of these people saying, fuck it, why fight the system when you can join it? Thus, a new breed of criminal, one who doesn’t enjoy living in his car.
Oh yea … here’s the thing: commit a non-violent crime, plead guilty, voila! free room and board, health care, too! What’s not to like? First one, then ten, then exponential growth. Soon the System would be so clogged that the beast would starve.
Oh FFS. Boomers are older and cant run from the police like before. So they commit less crimes. But if you take the amount taken in crime. ,such as from Madoff or Corzine, IE white collar crime, the money stolen YoY is greater than previous recessions. =)
System D, the nickname for the immense DIY underground economy that does not include drugs, weapons, or human trafficking, but includes imitation product lines (e.g., Guuucci or Motolola) and entrepreneurial street sales of mainstream consumables (Proctor and Gamble, etc), is growing quickly around the world and will also increase in the USA as times get hard.
Farmer’s Markets proliferate, high-quality street stands with mucho merchandise are on the rise too at regularly-scheduled venues, even the door-to-door salesman has arisen and helped create an alternative for those old Boomers who’d rather sit and sell instead of fight or fall.