“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Strauss & Howe wrote these words in 1997. They had predicted the arrival of another Crisis in this time frame in their previous book Generations, written in 1990. This wasn’t guesswork on their part. They understood the dynamics of how generations interact and how the mood of the country shifts every twenty or so years based upon the generational alignment that occurs as predictably as the turning of the seasons. The last generation that lived through the entire previous Crisis from 1929 through 1946 has virtually died off. This always signals the onset of the next Fourth Turning. The housing bubble and its ultimate implosion created the spark for the current Crisis that began in September 2008, with the near meltdown of the worldwide financial system. Just as the stock market crash of 1929, the election of Lincoln in 1860, and the Boston Tea Party in 1773 catalyzed a dramatic mood change in the country, the Wall Street created financial collapse in 2008 has ushered in a twenty year period of agony, suffering, war and ultimately the annihilation of the existing social order.
We have experienced the American High (Spring) from 1946 until 1964, witnessing America’s ascendancy as a global superpower. We survived the turbulent Consciousness Revolution Awakening (Summer) from 1964 until 1984, as Vietnam era protests morphed into yuppie era greed. The Long Boom/Culture Wars Unraveling (Fall) lasted from Reagan’s Morning in America in 1984 until the 2008 Wall Street/Federal Reserve spawned crash. The pessimism built to a crescendo as worry about rising violence and incivility, widening wealth inequality, and the splitting of the national consensus into extremes on the left and right, led the country into a winter of discontent. The Global Financial Crisis (Winter) has arrived in full fury and is likely to last until the late 2020’s. It will be an era of upheaval, financial turbulence, economic collapse, war, and the complete redefinition of society, as the existing corrupt status quo is swept away in the fury of powerful hurricane winds of change. History is cyclical and we’ve entered the most dangerous season, when the choices we make as a nation will have profound long lasting implications to the lives of future unborn generations.
The linear thinkers and so called progressives who believe that history charges relentlessly forward and human ingenuity overcomes all obstacles as the world becomes progressively richer, advanced, and humane ignore the lessons of history that have been re-written every 80 to 100 years for centuries. Generational theory is so simple that even an Ivy League intellectual economist, corrupt congressman, or CNBC anchor bimbo could grasp the basic concept. The four turnings in the ongoing cycle of history match a long human life. There is a reason we forget the lessons of the past. Those who remember the lessons die off after 80 years. The linear thinking status quo keep predicting an improving economy based upon their beliefs that the next fifteen years will proceed in a similar fashion to the last fifteen years. They refuse to acknowledge we’ve entered a new era that cannot be reversed to a previous point in time. Once you’ve experienced the harsh bitter winds of the Winter, you have to deal with months of depressing darkness, harsh conditions, and stormy weather before experiencing the return of the warm breezes of Spring. The tranquil days of autumn are long gone. This dynamic can be clearly visualized by comparing our economic situation in 2007, prior to entering this Fourth Turning, to our economic situation today:
End of Unraveling in 2007 versus fourth year of Crisis in 2012
- In 2007, the unemployment rate was 4.6%; 146 million people, or 63% of the working age population, were employed; and 78 million Americans were not in the labor force. Today, after three years of “recovery”, the unemployment rate is 7.9%; 143 million people, or 58.8% of the working age population are employed; and 88 million Americans are not in the labor force.
- Real median household income was $55,039 in 2007. It has fallen by 8.2% to $50,502 today.
- BLS reported inflation has risen by 12% since 2007. True inflation has risen at twice that rate.
- Median net worth in 2007 was $126,400. By 2010 it had fallen to $77,300, a 39% drop in three years. As of today, it may be a few thousand dollars higher as stock prices have risen and home prices have stopped falling.
- In 2007 there were 5.7 million existing homes sold at a median price of $218,900. Today there are 4.3 million existing homes being sold at a median price of $183,900. Over 1 million of these home sales are foreclosures or short sales, as 30% of all the homes with a mortgage in the country owe more than their house is worth.
- Federal government spending in 2007 was $2.73 trillion. Federal government spending today is $3.8 trillion, a 39% increase in five years. GDP in 2007 was $14.2 trillion. Today GDP is $15.8 trillion, an 11% increase in five years. Approximately 25% of the GDP increase is due to increased government spending.
- Government entitlement transfers totaled $1.7 trillion in 2007. Today they total $2.4 trillion, a 41% increase in five years. Interest income paid to senior citizens and savers totaled $1.25 trillion in 2007. Today interest income totals $985 billion, a 21% decrease in five years. Wall Street bankers needed the money to pay themselves bonuses, so Ben Bernanke obliged.
- The annual deficit in 2007 totaled $161 billion. Today, the annual deficit is $1.1 trillion. We add $3 billion per day to the national debt as a gift to unborn generations.
- The national debt in 2007 was $9 trillion. Today the national debt is $16.3 trillion, an 81% increase in five years. The national debt will reach $20 trillion during the next presidential term. Normalization of interest rates to 2007 levels would result in annual interest expense of $1 trillion, or 40% of current government revenues.
There is nothing normal about our current economic situation. The unfunded liabilities at the Federal, State and local levels of government accumulate to over $200 trillion. Do the facts detailed above lead you to believe we can return to pre-2007 normal in the near future, or ever? Not only has the economic situation of the country deteriorated enormously, the very culprits who created the disaster are more powerful than they were before the global catastrophe caused by their criminal risk taking. The largest Wall Street banks control 74% of all the deposits in the country, up from 66% in 2007, and double the levels from the mid-1990’s. These bastions of capitalism wield all of the power in this country, dictating who wins elections, who writes the laws, and who benefits from the distribution of wealth. Only in a corrupt, crony-capitalist, citadel of kleptocracy could the perpetrators of the greatest theft of national wealth in the history of mankind be rewarded with taxpayer financed bailouts, the ability to borrow an unlimited amount of fiat currency at 0% from a Central Bank they control, write the new banking regulations and be applauded by their corporate mainstream media for becoming even Too Bigger to Fail. This Fourth Turning will ultimately come down to a clash between the people and the Wall Street filth.
Those in power today are using their ample wealth and control over the legal, economic and political systems to pretend that an epic crisis does not beckon at our doorstep. Propaganda and media spin cannot avert the brutally hard choices that must be made over the next fifteen years. The existing system is unsustainable. It can either be changed by choice or after a complete collapse. We haven’t reached the point of regeneracy yet when civic purpose begins to strengthen. The outcome of this presidential election will determine the next phase of this Crisis. Strauss & Howe described the normal course of a crisis in 1997:
“A CRISIS arises in response to sudden threats that previously would have been ignored or deferred, but which are now perceived as dire. Great worldly perils boil off the clutter and complexity of life, leaving behind one simple imperative: The society must prevail. This requires a solid public consensus, aggressive institutions, and personal sacrifice. People support new efforts to wield public authority, whose perceived successes soon justify more of the same. Government governs, community obstacles are removed, and laws and customs that resisted change for decades are swiftly shunted aside. A grim preoccupation with civic peril causes spiritual curiosity to decline. Public order tightens, private risk-taking abates, and crime and substance abuse decline. Families strengthen, gender distinctions widen, and child-rearing reaches a smothering degree of protection and structure. The young focus their energy on worldly achievements, leaving values in the hands of the old. Wars are fought with fury and for maximum result.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Clearly this country has not reached a common consensus and is split 50%/50% on most important issues. Debates about the role of government are waged with vitriolic passion, but the reality is that, as in past Fourth Turnings, the government has already assumed a greater level of power and control over our lives. The majority believe that government can protect them, provide for them, and pay their way. This is a delusion which will be revealed as fraudulent and mathematically impossible. The incompetent government preparation prior to Superstorm Sandy and the dysfunctional, bureaucratic and painfully slow response afterward are opening the eyes of many people. The decisions which are yet to be made are what kind of society shall we be and who will be required to sacrifice to achieve a positive outcome at the end of this Crisis. Turnings are driven by a mood change in the country and the constellation of generations at that point in time. The generations are now aligned as they always are during a Crisis:
- Boomers entering elderhood
- Gen-Xers entering midlife
- Millennials entering young adulthood
- Homelanders entering childhood
History does not repeat but it does rhyme, because of the cyclical nature of human experience. The specific events that drive this Crisis are unknowable, but the generational response to these events can be predicted with uncanny accuracy. Each generation will play its assigned role during this Crisis. The current generational configuration will propel events and create a feedback loop that will change the course of human history on a scale consistent with the Depression/World War II, the Civil War and the American Revolution.
“What will propel these events? As the saeculum turns, each of today’s generations will enter a new phase of life, producing a Crisis constellation of Boomer elders, midlife 13ers, young adult Millennials, and children from the new Silent Generation. As each archetype asserts its new social role, American society will reach its peak of potency. The natural order givers will be elder Prophets, the natural order takers young Heroes. The no-nonsense bosses will be midlife Nomads, the sensitive souls the child Artists. No archetypal constellation can match the gravitational of this one – nor its power to congeal the natural dynamic of human history into new civic purposes. And none can match its potential power to condense countless arguments, anxieties, cynicisms, and pessimisms into one apocalyptic storm.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
The mood of the country continues to blacken. A simmering anger boils beneath the surface of an everyday façade of normalcy. The middle class majority is being squeezed in a vice, with the rich powerful plutocrats on Wall Street and in Washington DC stealing their hard earned net worth through financial scams, the gutting of our industrial base and a tax system designed to benefit those who write the laws on one side and the parasitic willfully ignorant underclass that is sustained only through the extraction of taxes from the working middle class on the other side. Our society has become a hunger games tournament, with the few benefitting while the many scramble to survive. The stench of class warfare is in the air. The generational resentment and rage is palatable as the Millenial generation has taken on a trillion dollars of student loan debt at the behest of the Federal government, Wall Street and older generations, only to graduate into a jobless economy. The generational contract has been broken, as the older generations will not or cannot leave the workforce due to their own financial missteps. Younger generations are being denied entry level positions, even as the older generations expect them to fund their retirements and healthcare. This presidential election will only exacerbate the anger, disappointment, bitterness and fury among the populace, no matter who wins.
Prophets & Nomads
Can generational theory predict who will win the presidential election? Probably not, but based upon historical precedent, during times of Crisis the country usually turns to a Prophet generation leader who provides a new vision and summons the moral authority to lead. This leader may not have the right vision or have the backing of the entire population, but he is not afraid to take bold action. Franklin Delano Roosevelt was despised by many, but he boldly led the country during the last Crisis. Abraham Lincoln won the 1860 election with only 39.8% of the popular vote, but he unflinchingly did whatever he thought was necessary to achieve victory and preserve the union. Prophet leaders like Samuel Adams and Benjamin Franklin offered the sense of moral urgency required to sustain the American Revolution. Strauss & Howe give a historical perspective on Prophet generations.
“Prophet generations are born after a great war or other crisis, during a time of rejuvenated community life and consensus around a new societal order. Prophets grow up as the increasingly indulged children of this post-crisis era, come of age as narcissistic young crusaders of a spiritual awakening, cultivate principle as moralistic mid-lifers, and emerge as wise elders guiding another historical crisis. By virtue of this location in history, such generations tend to be remembered for their coming-of-age passion and their principled elder stewardship. Their principle endowments are often in the domain of vision, values, and religion. Their best-known historical leaders include John Winthrop, William Berkeley, Samuel Adams, Benjamin Franklin, James Polk, Abraham Lincoln, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin Roosevelt. These were principled moralists, summoners of human sacrifice, and wagers of righteous wars. Early in life, few saw combat in uniform; later in life, most came to be revered more for their inspiring words than for their grand deeds.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Barack Obama was born in 1961. According to the Strauss & Howe generational distinctions, this makes him an early Gen-Xer. His life story matches that of the Nomad archetype. His chaotic early life, confused upbringing by an array of elders, frenetic alienated early adulthood as a community organizer, and his rise to power through his public speaking talent and pragmatic ability to achieve his agenda is a blueprint for a Nomad. Mitt Romney was born in 1947 and grew up during the American High. His childhood was idyllic and privileged. His moral Mormon youth as a missionary eventually devolved into his yuppie “greed is good” career at Bain Capital acquiring companies, making them more efficient (firing Americans & hiring Asians), and spinning them off, while siphoning millions in fees. He has tried to convince Americans to vote for him, based upon his business acumen and moral lifestyle, as the cure for what ails America. With the continued downward spiral of societal mood, record low trust in Congress and 60% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track, the odds should favor the Prophet candidate. The 40% of Americans who think the country is on the right track are a tribute to our awful government run public education system or are smoking crack.
The Barack Obama presidency has many similarities to the one-term presidencies of Herbert Hoover and James Buchanan. Both men were overwhelmed by rapidly deteriorating events, an inability to understand the true nature of the Crisis, and failure to inspire the American people to rally behind a common cause. Both men drifted off into obscurity and are overwhelmingly acknowledged as two of the least successful presidents. The men who succeeded them are ranked by historians at the top of the list, even though they are both despised by more libertarian minded citizens as proponents of big government solutions and control. Libertarians will not be happy with developments over the next fifteen years. This Crisis is an era in which America’s corrupt social order will be torn down and reconstructed from the ground as a reaction to the unsustainable financial pyramid scheme which is an existential threat to the nation’s very survival. Civic authority will revive, cultural manifestation will find a community resolution, and citizens will begin to associate themselves as adherents of a larger cluster.
Barack Obama has fallen short as a Crisis leader, just as Buchanan and Hoover fell short. Buchanan also tried to maintain the status quo and not address the key issues of the day – secession and slavery. His handling of the financial Panic of 1857 led to annual deficits that exceeded 13% of GDP during his entire presidency. His legacy is one of failure and hesitation. Hoover was a technocrat with an engineering background who failed to recognize the extent of the suffering by the American people during the early stages of the Great Depression. It is a false storyline that he did not attempt to use the power of the Federal government to address the economic crisis. Federal spending increased by over 20% during his term and he was running a deficit when Roosevelt assumed power. Hoover was an activist president who began the public works programs that FDR expanded and dramatically increased taxes on the rich and corporations in 1932.
Obama inherited a plunging economic situation and proceeded to make choices that will make this Crisis far worse than it needed to be. He has failed miserably in addressing the core elements of this Crisis that were foreseen by Strauss and Howe over a decade before the initial spark in 2008. Debt, civic decay, rising wealth inequality due to the rise of our plutocracy, and global disorder are the underlying basis for this Crisis. Obama’s response was to run record deficits driving the national debt skyward, failing to address the unfunded entitlement liabilities that loom on the horizon, bowing down before the Wall Street mobsters and paying their ransom demands, layering on more complexity and unfunded healthcare liabilities to an already teetering government system, and extending our policing the world foreign policy at a cost of $1 trillion per year. A Crisis requires a bold leader who makes tough choices and leads. Obama has proven to not be that leader. Based on historical precedent and the rapidly deteriorating mood of the country, it would be logical for the country to select Romney, a Prophet generation leader.
No Escape
“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
No matter who wins the election, there will be no turning back. It isn’t Morning in America anymore. It is more like Midnight in America on a bitterly cold dark February night as the gale force winds begin to gust, foretelling the approach of an epic winter blizzard. There are no easy solutions. The opportunity to alleviate the impact of this Crisis was during the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, and we made all the wrong choices. Now we will pay the price. An era of depression and violence will be ushered in by an economic calamity that will make 2008 look like a minor blip. The next president will still be presiding over a country divided 50%/50%, with little or no common ground on most of the key issues that must be confronted. But, as we’ve seen in previous Crisis periods, bold leadership and history making decisions did not require consensus or even majority support. Only 10% of the colonial population drove the American Revolution. Lincoln was despised by half the country and not exactly loved by everyone in the North. FDR’s popular support progressively declined during his four terms in office. It is the Fourth Turning events, not the nation, which elevates the person to the apex of power. The regeneracy of the nation will occur during the next presidential term.
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The Millenial generation is coming of age faced with the burdens of $1 trillion of student loan debt, a stagnant job market clogged by the Boomer generation that can’t afford to retire because they never got around to saving, ever increasing taxes to fund the promises made to their elders by politicians, and an unfunded entitlement liability of $100 trillion for healthcare and pension benefits they will never see. The mathematical impossibility of sustaining our economic system is absolute. It will require courage, sacrifice, fortitude and a dramatic shift of our egocentric selfish culture to a culture of sustainability and caring about future generations. We’ve made many bad choices over the last few decades. Choices matter. These are the times that will try men’s souls. The choices we make as a nation over the next few years will determine whether this Fourth Turning ends in a renewal of our founding principles or tragedy. Glory or ruin – the choice is ours.
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The next stage of this Crisis is likely to be ignited by a downward spiral of societal trust caused by the next financial implosion, which is certain to occur. A world built upon debt, false promises, interconnected webs of deceitful derivatives, fiat currency backed only by the promises of lying politicians and captured central bankers, and a diminishing supply of easy to access natural resources, is hopelessly dependent upon the willful ignorance of the masses. As long as people want to be lied to rather than facing the truth, those in power can maintain the status quo. Once the jarring realization of reality overwhelms the propaganda and lies of the oligarchs, the battle for middle earth will begin. What will trigger the next phase of this Crisis? No one knows for sure, but based on the fault lines already evident, these are a possibility:
- The inevitable breakup of the European Union with the consequences of massive bank defaults in Europe triggering worldwide bank defaults as the interconnected trillions of derivatives are lit like a string of firecrackers.
- A sudden Greece like surge in interest rates on Japanese bonds results in a collapse of their debt ridden economic system, with reverberations throughout the world.
- The Middle East tinderbox explodes as Israel attacks Iran and the law of unintended consequences takes hold. Alliances and treaties would draw Turkey into war with Syria and Iran. Russia and China could side against the U.S. Iran and their vassals would unleash terrorist attacks and disruption of Middle Eastern oil would drive prices over $200 per barrel, crushing the American economy.
- A showdown on the debt ceiling and/or fiscal cliff results in a stock market crash, derailing the pitiful fledgling recovery created by Ben Bernanke’s QE to infinity measures.
- A tipping point is reached with regards to the amount of debt that can be accumulated by our Federal, State and Local governments. A cascade of defaults could lead to a loss of faith in the U.S. dollar and a surge in interest rates. The defaults and increased interest on the national debt could lead to mass depression or in a worst case scenario – hyperinflation.
- A large terrorist attack in one or more American cities would cause chaos, panic and fear, leading to more government control over our daily lives. This could trigger a counter response by those fed up with an overbearing government presence.
- A catastrophic natural disaster or series of natural disasters would reveal the fragile nature of our just in time economic system. A breakdown of our logistical and infrastructure systems would lead to chaos and mass hysteria as the citizens who believed their government leaders would keep them safe, secure, warm, and fed realized it was all a sham. Their leaders were in it for the power and riches, not looking out for the best interests of the common folk.
No one knows for sure what will trigger the next leg down during this Crisis, but I can guarantee you that things will not be getting better in the near future. Don’t believe the mainstream media or politicians who tell us life in the good old U.S. of A will be back to normal in the near future. And those who predict a long slow gentle decline of the American Empire that can be managed by the oligarchs are badly mistaken. That is not how things roll in a Fourth Turning. Transformative change, chaos, desperate measures, and total war will propel our nation through this cataclysmic saeculum and a positive outcome is not assured. An armed conflict – class war, sectional war, religious war, or war for oil – will be waged at some point and fought to the finish. Fourth Turning wars do not end inconclusively. Each Fourth Turning war has resulted in greater destruction and more horrendous numbers of human casualties. The trials and tribulations that await this nation over the next fifteen years will challenge every living generation to play their roles and bravely confront the tasks needed to reach a new High, just as their ancestors did.
“History offers no guarantees. Obviously, things could go horribly wrong – the possibilities ranging from a nuclear exchange to incurable plagues, from terrorist anarchy to high-tech dictatorship. We should not assume that Providence will always exempt our nation from the irreversible tragedies that have overtaken so many others: not just temporary hardship, but debasement and total ruin. Losing in the next Fourth Turning could mean something incomparably worse. It could mean a lasting defeat from which our national innocence – perhaps even our nation – might never recover.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
For those who doubt generational theory and believe history is a linear path of human progress, I would point to the last week of chaos, disarray, government dysfunction, and misery of those who didn’t prepare for Superstorm Sandy, as a prelude to the worst of this Crisis. The lack of preparation by government officials and citizens, death, destruction, panic, anger, helplessness and realization of how fragile our system has become is a perfect analogy to our preparation for this Fourth Turning. The brittleness of our infrastructure and lack of redundancy in our systems has left us vulnerable to any large storm. Building mansions yards from a dangerous unpredictable sea is akin to allowing Wall Street bankers to create interconnected financial derivatives which will ultimately result in a great worldwide flood that will obliterate billions of wealth. Going decades without upgrading our power grid, transportation systems, or storm protection is akin to allowing our unfunded entitlement liabilities to accumulate to such an extreme level that it will be impossible to honor and the coming storm will swamp those depending on those promises. The lack of foresight by citizens in having food, water, and backup sources of power and heat in case of an emergency is akin to the millions of people that have lived the good life in debt up to their eyeballs while never saving for a rainy day or their retirement. When the rainy day arrives they panic and demand to be saved by an inept bureaucratic government.
Winter has arrived. The gathering storm is about to strike. Are you prepared?
“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The Millennial generation is very strange (at least in my own limited experience).
There are those of us who remember visits from WW2 vets, and honoring them quite regularly growing up. We listened to stories of the Great Depression, and learned how terrible things were back then. These people were our heroes, and how great were those who overcame such adversity!
Unfortunately, there is a giant portion of the millennial population who have grown up under the thumb of TSA/Patriot Act, who never sat at grandpa’s knee and learned of the horrors of WW2 or The Great Depression. The internet, mountains of videogames, and facebook have all served to distance them from the past, as well as their humanity.
These kids vote for Ron Paul on their facebook page, but do so only out of a desire to ‘rebel’ against their parent’s parties. They do not delve through the causes of the candidates, and do not grasp how horribly screwed we are, how horribly our forebears have pissed away The American Dream and left nothing but a well processed, steaming pile of shit in their wake.
I guess on the upside, the “older” Millennials tend to have a lot of pull with the younger ones, so maybe we can grab them by the ears and tow them in the right direction (while at the same time supporting our parents when THEY are forced to move in with US as pensions, bonds and social security dry up at an exponential rate.)
my Gary Johnson vote will be a vote for a generational prophet… Romney is not the only one on the presidential list
@Lucille Rothstein
Someone may bother to read your inane drivel if you were to learn to use and apply paragraphs properly .
@Lucille
Wow and I thought when I finished reading what Dick Stump wrote I had my quota of idiotic drivel for November 5th then along came you with your Matrix/Netflix rant. Not sure how it was possible but you have managed to trump one of the best circular arguments I have seen for a while with what can be best described as a vortex argument. That being turds floating in a circular motion to be flushed down the drain shortly by the regulars here on TBP.
@Marissa
First off, we are talking about Strauss and Howe here (at least Admin, Colma and I were) and they were (Strauss is dead)/are (Howe is still kicking) American, and their generational theories map Anglo-American history from the 15th century to the present/future. They quite clearly state in their works that the timing and nature of the generations they write about, and the 4 turnings, are valid only for America (and England leading up to America). While other countries and cultures may have generational archetypes and turnings of their own, that is not what Strauss and Howe were writing about.
My blunt assignment of blame on the SEBBs is very valid since we are talking about an Anglo-American-centric theory. I also fully expect SEBBs to obfuscate and deny any responsibility and to constantly contradict themselves like a bunch of selfish, narcissistic hypocrites – this is just an inevitability of the ‘prophet generation’ archetype.
Your comment “Not every country (and the world has approximately 195 countries, you can look it up) had a baby boom after WW2.” No shit, Sherlock – and it seems you are scrambling to expatriate yourself to one of those countries that was not systematically derailed by the SEBBs and their culture war. You know, some nice out-of-the-way place that maintained traditional cultural values, escaped Boomer greed-is-good corporatism, and has a smaller government. In other words – you are trying to get your ass as far away from the influence of American Baby Boomers as you can. I think actions speak louder than words, so your planned escape from the Boomer shitstorm of the American 4th turning more damning toward their destruction of America (and through influence, the entire Western world) than my words.
You also said “Yet much of the world is now facing all the same issues. Pretty narrow minded to *blame* the sorry state of affairs on just one generation of people from just one country.” – Hmmm… What countries in the world are going to shit the hardest? 1. America – and by association Europe and The Commonwealth of Nations. What do those places have in common? The American Baby Boom Generation has set the cultural tone and been the military/economic/cultural leader for the past 40 years. The countries on Earth where there were no Baby Boomers and where American SEBBs exerted the least cultural influence and political/economic control seem to be doing just fine in comparison. Equador? China? Indonesia? Singapore? Belize? Brasil? Etc etc. If the BB weren’t responsible for the destruction of America (and by association the Western World) then why the fuck would there be a mathematically perfect DIRECT PROPORTIONAL RELATIONSHIP between how shitty the crisis is in any given country and the influence of the American Baby Boomers in that country over the past 40 years?
Finally, you state “Once you smarten up a little to see that your blame aiming is preventing you from seeing the bigger picture of global theft, corruption, environmental degradation, and corporate government takeover, you might just be a bit less obnoxiously arrogant.” Well, you might seem like just a little bit less of a selfish, stupid, hypocritical Baby Boomer apologist if you were trying to crawl into the belly of the Baby Boomer beast by planting yourself firmly in one of those fine nations where Baby Boomers have shoved their global theft, corruption, environmental degradation, and corporate government takeover down our throats.
In conclusion, I will go so far as to say that American Baby Boomers ruined the entire Western World. That’s right, Marissa. Previously I have kept it to blaming them for destroying America. But it’s clear they actually ruined the entire civilized Western World – which is EXACTLY why you and your ilk are attempting to escape to some 3rd world brown country where the SEBBs haven’t had that much influence.
Stu ck -AND WHAT IS HIS PREDICTION? ——- IT IS THAT AMERICA WILL BECOME A RELIGIOUS TOTALITARIAN/FASCIST STATE.
I’d bet on it albeit under a new and bastardized from of Christianity, like you say.
Thanks for the heads up on Peikoff . I’m checking him out now.
“Religious totalitarian fascist state”
My greatest fear, and the odds are pretty good for it. I have to check out Pelkoff as well.
It’s so true, SAH! LOL
The comments start immediately about how everyone’s moving out.
Fucking good riddance. I’ll hit the board tonight along that vein. There is a severe misunderstanding about the nature of world-wide effects.
Fucking SEBB’s actually think they can escape and grow fumanchoos and meditate it all away.
Classic
“The reality is that we still depend upon the natural world and its functioning ecosystems to provide us with ALL of the necessities of life — food, water, resources for shelter and energy, etc. Those ecosystems are currently collapsing due to human activities like mountaintop removal coal mining, tar sands mining, commercial overfishing of the oceans, deforestation, etc. We are literally in the midst of the sixth great extinction event in the earth’s history — one caused almost exclusively by humans.”
—-Christopher Harrison
So, according to you, Chris, the first FIVE extinction events in earth’s history weren’t man made, but this one is. Six billion years after the Big Bang, and you, in your infinite wisdom, pick this particular time as an extinction event caused by humans.
Ok, let’s go with that. So, what is your proposal to stop Brazilian campesinos from clearing wide swaths of forest in the Amazon Basin? And how will you stop the Chinese and Indian governments from building coal-fired power plants at breakneck speed, the Canadian government from letting private companies mine the tar sands of Alberta, and the Japanese, Norwegian, Peruvian, and Ecuadoran governments from letting private fishing fleets go out in the oceans to catch fish for large populations that have seafood as a staple of their diets? There are more questions, but I’ll stop there because I think you should have the big picture of where I’m coming from, Chris.
I hope you suggest an International Global Warming Treaty, Chris. I really do. Because I’m just getting “warmed up” myself.
The thing that will save the country from the fate envisioned in The fourth Turning is the coming boom in oil and gas. We will be the largest producer of the fuels in the world because of fracking and new technologies and consequently we will be the wealthiest nation on the planet. There will be enough friches to support all those entitlement .programs but of course the true wealth will be doled out the political cronies of the administration and we will wind up as a Socialist dictatorship until the revolution
Damn, the loonies are loose. Fracking is going to save the country???? Yikes. The ignorant masses are on the march.
“The refusal of King George III to allow the colonies to operate an honest money system, which freed the ordinary man from the clutches of the money manipulators was probably the prime cause of the revolution.”
-Benjamin Franklin
My apologies if this article is in the wrong thread.
But it is an interesting view of our elections from a German point of view.
In short, they say we’re fucked no matter who wins. Ant Romney lovers here will probably have their brain explode, as the Krauts consider him (and the Tea Party) to be the West’s Taliban. They’re not to keen on Obama either.
The point being ….. unlike 90% of Amurican voters … the Germans understand that; We. Are. Fucked.
——————————————————————————-
America Has Already Lost Tuesday’s Election
A Commentary by Jakob Augstein
Germans see the US election as a battle between the good Obama and the evil Romney. But this is a mistake. Regardless of who wins the election on Tuesday, total capitalism is America’s true ruler, and it has the power to destroy the country.
The United States Army is developing a weapon that can reach — and destroy — any location on Earth within an hour. At the same time, power lines held up by wooden poles dangle over the streets of Brooklyn, Queens and New Jersey. Hurricane Sandy ripped them apart there and in communities across the East Coast last week, and many places remain without electricity. That’s America, where high-tech options are available only to the elite, and the rest live under conditions comparable to a those of a developing nation. No country has produced more Nobel Prize winners, yet in New York City hospitals had to be evacuated during the storm because their emergency generators didn’t work properly.
Anyone who sees this as a contradiction has failed to grasp the fact that America is a country of total capitalism. Its functionaries have no need of public hospitals or of a reliable power supply to private homes. The elite have their own infrastructure. Total capitalism, however, has left American society in ruins and crippled the government. America’s fate is not just an accident produced by the system. It is a consequence of that system.
Obama couldn’t change this, and Romney wouldn’t be able to either. Europe is mistaken if it views the election as a choice between the forces of good and evil. And it certainly doesn’t amount to a potential change in political direction as some newspapers on the Continent would have us believe.
A Powerless President
Romney, the exceedingly wealthy business man, and Obama, the cultivated civil rights lawyer, are two faces of a political system that no longer has much to do with democracy as we understand it. Democracy is about choice, but Americans don’t really have much of a choice. Obama proved this. Nearly four years ago, it seemed like a new beginning for America when he took office. But this was a misunderstanding. Obama didn’t close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp, nor did he lift immunity for alleged war criminals from the Bush-era, or regulate the financial markets, and climate change was hardly discussed during the current election campaign. The military, the banks, industry — the people are helpless in the face of their power, as is the president.
Not even credit default swaps, the kind of investment that brought down Lehman Brothers and took Western economies to the brink, has been banned or even better regulated. It is likely the case that Obama wanted to do more, but couldn’t. But what role does that play in the bigger picture?
We want to believe that Obama failed because of the conservatives inside his own country. Indeed, the fanatics that Mitt Romney depends on have jettisoned everything that distinguishes the West: science and logic, reason and moderation, even simple decency. They hate homosexuals, the weak and the state. They oppress women and persecute immigrants. Their moralizing about abortion doesn’t even spare the victims of rape. They are the Taliban of the West.
The Winner Makes No Difference to Europe
Still, they are only the symptom of America’s failure, not the cause. In reality, neither the idealists and Democrats, nor the useful idiots of the Tea Party have any power over the circumstances.
From a European perspective, it doesn’t matter who wins this election. Only US foreign policy is important to us — and Obama is no dove and Romney no hawk. The incumbent president prefers to wage his wars with drones instead of troops, though the victims probably don’t care if they’re killed by man or machine. Meanwhile, despite all the criticism, his challenger says he wouldn’t join Israel were the country to go to war with Iran because the US can now no longer afford such a thing.
In any case, it is wrong to characterize Republicans as the party of warmongers and Democrats as the party of peace — or even to call the latter a left-wing party at all. After all, it was Democratic presidents Harry S. Truman, John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson who started the wars in Korea and Vietnam. Republican presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard Nixon ended these wars. And Ronald Reagan, who Europeans see as the embodiment of both the evil and absurd aspects of American politics, was a peaceful man compared to the standards we have since become accustomed to. He only ever invaded Grenada.
The truth is that we simply no longer understand America. Looking at the country from Germany and Europe, we see a foreign culture. The political system is in the hands of big business and its lobbyists. The checks and balances have failed. And a perverse mix of irresponsibility, greed and religious zealotry dominate public opinion.
The downfall of the American empire has begun. It could be that the country’s citizens wouldn’t be able to stop it no matter how hard they tried. But they aren’t even trying.
milton
The Administrator is a secret admirer of fracking, so he’s just messing with you to stir up trouble. All you need to do is hang in there a bit longer and help him see the light on fracking. Trust me on this one. You’ll be glad you did.
@Stucky – A good article, except their use of the words “total capitlism” is a bit odd.
From the way they use it, its the same as crony capitalism?
I applaud with enthusiasm fit for an apprentice who has save his crew time by cutting into plaster with a saw and clipped several water and poopy pipes at the foolishness of Bookaki1 and his troop of retards.
Having no idea but maps and the illusion of well-being, the fool dares to tell me that Fillipinos, bless their merry hearts, do not apply for citizenship and retain their natural citizenship. That’s fucking classic…
My dear Bookaki1: I highly doubt your deserted stateside family is interested in your new homestead. As one who has more Pinoy friends and extended family than could be counted, I applaud your ignorance as to the status of the Fillipines as basically a dollar-pegged 51st state where dual citizens come and go, send money to and fro and do it all from my backyard.
Trust me when I say that you are probably being milked and talked of with disdain by your friendly “democratic” township as we speak.
The fact of the matter is that Boomer men like Bookaki1 can’t handle being around Boomer women. They can’t handle the lack of respect from their children here. They can only scrape by on a meager income and move to the East where they are met with a smile and hope. To say that one moves to the East with the hope for freedom is the biggest sham.
No, you move because you are gross and inhospitable to American women. You move where you cannot speak of politics and are afforded rights to the extent your Social Security check can buy.
You yearn only for a companion that smiles and nods and open doors for you, because you simply have not earned it at home.
Trust me. I know.
Anybody ever see the “Lost” series. Now that is worth seeing. It’s over 100 hours of TV Viewing, but it does make for good TV viewing. -LR
Really? I need to watch 100 hours of stupid crap on the sparkle box of intentional ignorance? T
Seems to me thats a large part of the problem with our society today.
The fact of the matter is that Boomer men like Bookaki1 can’t handle being around Boomer women. They can’t handle the lack of respect from their children here. -CR
Okay. You made the claim.
Prove it.
“Normalization of interest rates to 2007 levels would result in annual interest expense of $1 trillion, or 40% of current government revenues.”
That quote from Mr. Quinn’s piece above is the take-away message in my view, because it explains how and why interest rates must remain low, until they no longer can. In fact, one could argue that the high precipice of economic uncertainty that we currently occupy along with the continuance of our entire socio-economic structure rests with the continuation of real interest rate capture by our governmental and monetary officials.
An excellent read, Jim. You definitely have a talent for putting all the pieces together. These will help historians tell the story years (generations) from now.
And, from the comments, I think I need to finish my “cliff’s notes” version of T4T. Most people seem to lack even a basic understanding of the theory. As soon as I get done with all my 2013 planning for clients, I’ll wrap it up and get it posted.
About 60-70% of American adults do not understand where reality lies: Thanks in part to our government educational system and in part because most people simply do not think about much beyond Self and Nowl and Me and If there is a problem, let someone else handle it!”. Government does not have a single dollar that it spends, not one Dollar! The private sector pays all government salaries INCLUDING THE INCOME TAX THOSE IN GOVERNMENT BELIEVE THEY PAY ON THEIR WAGES! The private sector pays for all government offices, heat, light, power, supplies, paid vacations, paid medical, reserved pensions –everything! Governments are supposed to be TRUSTEES of private sector funds given under duress by government demands for more and more and more. If this Country had mature adults today, a man like our current President, with almost no experience in the private sector, has no clue where all the money comes from that he wants spent into or through government because he has never experienced a full-time job in the private sector where he worked up from warehouse to head of a private company. No elected official in government should be allowed to campaign for office if he or she has not had at least 15 years of hands-on experience in the private sector and preferably of the kind noted above –worked up from a base to the top and kept a company moving along profitably when he decides to run for public office. Government is a double cost: (1) Pay and Officing for employees, (2)what it then chooses to spend beyond itself that was taken from private sector workers pay, demanded from them. Had such funds remained in the private sector, it would have been used more efficiently. Were there half as many people in our federal government, those people (who are now TAXES, would instead be workers in the private sector creating more goods and services for sale and the profits for those sales would be kept to be used again in the private sector to create more real wealth (not more rules and demands!). Mr Obama, though charming and a good speaker, has no life experience that could show him a really easy way to turn around this mess beginning with the understanding of how to do that. (I doubt Mr Romney has this easy way in mind, either, except since he has had a successful business career, I suspect IF/AFTER Election he would grab the idea and run with it) He could not use it without being elected becaused it would have to begin with a President AND half out here would not vote for him before the election because it just might make them have to get off their asses and get involved in turning this mess around. What I do not see out here are selfishness, shortsightednness, ignorance and greed AND no one giving a danh what kind of Country we are leaving our kids becazuse we have been too damn busy using their right to be as free as we have had the privilege of using up on ourselves! Mature adults would have accepted their responsibility to both our Founding Fathers AND our next generations. (Rome went through this but time has sped up since their 400 years! (Oh, up above here I I forgot another term for our current adults –SPOILED!
Can you even imagine anyone today getting in those Covered Wagons and heaing West to make a better life! Gosh, no insurance, no supermarkets, no wagon stations, no roads, no paid medical, no pensions or even guaranteed wages! But there is a really SIMPLE way here IF our adults would move to reality and be willing to co-operate as a group toward fixing this for our kids!
How come I know how to fix this when neither of the candidates do? Because I have observed into all this through 5 generations, have served in WWII and Korea (2 years each) have lost a child and a grandchild and a first marriage (23 years, 3 children ), have been in a 2nd marriage for 27 years, have worked most of my adult life in the private sector, 25 years without a salary, only got paid after the fact if the client was satisfied with my finished work (try that sometime!), have raised money for Congress and 2 of it’s fedederal Housing Agencies and instead of being thanked for my part in getting 2,400 new apartments built for low income seniors or families, all government did was screw me (and a lot of the fine private sector leaders who put up the money for all those apartments) so I KNOW government very well! It is the least efficient form of group among us and depends 100% on the output from the private sector for government to survive! It can create no real wealth and therefore becomes a cost to the private sector to have to factor-into it’s PRICES. The more government cost, the higher go our Prices, and the higher go oujr Prices, the less competitive we become in the world markets! It really is that simple, Gang! There is no solution for this mess the way the President understands things, and my solution could not be used by Governor Romney before election because the American people have forgotten how to think as a group looking for survival ahead! Yet this way that my life experience has taught me to understand, is simpe, logical, fair to everyone, and it would work very easily among adults who care about our Country and our Kids (problem is that are just not enough out here who do (are about our Country and our kids! And by the way, how many of you understand tjat this much-abused-by-human-beings planet is under huge stress right now and unless human nature makes a rapld change toward a decent survival, then the fact that we have passed the 7 BILLION HUMANS level and another BILLION will be here in just a few short years and then another BILLION aftger that in eve shorter years (when this planet maybe could have put up with about 3.5 BILLION of responsible human beings), do none of you project that and see how things ahead can only be chaotic unless we all wake up and understand that unless we begin to work together, and fast, there are going to be no recoveries that you all are hoping-for, because the way we are and have been for the last several thousand years, when things get tougher, instead of working together, we all pull inside our selfish shells and assure ourselves of chaos ahead. Period.
I forgot another term for our current adults –SPOILED! -Reality
Another claim.
Where would I find the information to back up this up?
Reality,you write like a retard.Really?one long ass sentence.I hope that gave you a laugh admin.
The Germans are a great people.Obama isnt the answer though.But the folks who think Romney well ride in on a white mormon horse and create 12 million jobs.Well your kidding yourselves.I find myself having to refrain from telling people this stuff.They are already bummed out enough as it is.
I just tell people to remember Katrina and Sally and think of all the hungry desperate people.And imagine millions of them.And make sure your ready so you wont join them.
Mabe i was being to harsh.Retards are smarter than that. Im sorry, im just annoyed at life.The elections and my wife wanting to watch Romney on the tube.All the people thinking Romney well fix things.And the other half of voters who think Obama is great.
When I was a newbie I at least made the attempt to communicate clearly.
One additional factor, which has not even been mentioned here, is that there is a new religion in the world. It’s so new, it doesn’t even have a name yet. Although it’s an amalgam of Judaism, Christianity and Mormonism, none of those religions want anything to do with it because they all see it as a heresy. Strange to say, though its roots are in all three, the new kid on the block sees them as heresies too. A prudent person would have to ask: is it pure coincidence that a new religion, made from Judaism, Christianity and Mormonism, comes on the scene just as a Fourth Turning starts? Probably not, because a new religion, made from those three, would have no chance of overcoming those three at any other time. So if the timing of the new religion is by design, not by chance, then this Fourth Turning is going to be the turning of all turnings. Please Be Guided Accordingly.
@Christopher Harrison: (way back up the thread). You’ve hit the nail on the head. This fucker is going down and your reasoning is both critical and accurate. We have a two-headed bitch sucker going to eat us head and tail. On one side comes debt and default and depression (with or without hyperinflation depending on how lucky we get) and the other side of environmental collapse is taking place in slow motion as everyone stands around and watches it happen. down here in Florida, it is especially vile. when I was growing up (teen), I swam in Florida springs that were clear as gin. Now they are greenish tinged sewer outlets with clumps of green algae floating around. The lakes here in central Florida a mere 15 years ago had 10-15 foot visibility – now you can’t see a foot. The only thing that colored them was tannic acid from oak leaves rotting and running off. Now, severe pollution from agricultural run off of pesticides, fertilizer and leaky septic tanks are poisoning what used to be a pristine aquifer that originated in the Okefenokee Swamp in S. Georgia and ended in springs feeding rivers from the Suwannee to the Everglades.
The Governor of Florida has vetoed a law that would require homeowners to periodically have their septic tanks and drain fields checked to insure they were working properly and not leaking sewage into the ground. Great work, Gov.. Too many rats in the box. A 75% die off in population would, in a few hundred years, restore our environment to what it should be. I think we’ll probably get that, given the intelligence of the current political leadership and population of this country.
@SAH: If I had not been married happily for 55 years (and look forward to a few more), I’d ask you to consider cohabiting with me! You’ve got a fine mind, a great attitude and (in my minds’ eye) you’re probably a hotty too!.. /sarc on/ Please understand this is not a sexist comment! /sarc off/
@Colma: We know you dislike anything outside California screwing, but give it a rest..
@Stucky: Nice Germanic post. I can imagine the rest of the world watching us thrash and twist and turn and wonder WTF is going on and why are putting up with it.. We’re putting up with it because 47% of Americans are on the dole of one sort or another, self reliance is a non-starter anymore, honesty is a lost virtue and the big “I” and “me” rule the country.
Respectfully submitted —
MA
Mr. Quinn, if the country re-elects nomad Obama over the potential prophet Romney, doesn’t that mean the coming crisis will need to be much worse before the prophet appears on the scene?
Arius
If the country re-elects Obama maybe some Prophet figure arises outside of politics and Washington DC to lead an opposition. Maybe Obama gets assassinated. Maybe a General attempts a coup. The actual events are unknowable, but it is certain that things will not improve over the next fifteen or so years.
@Reality: Nice rant but awfully hard to read. You might want to exert a little tiny bit more effort to separate paragraphs, sentences and such to make it easier for the maroons here on TBP to read.
MA
“A 75% die off in population would, in a few hundred years, restore our environment to what it should be”
Hell, in a few hundred years you would have old growth forest coming in. It really only takes 15-20 years of being left alone for mother nature to begin correcting those imbalances.
“Romney being born in 1947 at the end of WWll is a Prophet by definition.”
He is?
Definition of Prophet:
proph·et (prft)
n.
1. A person who speaks by divine inspiration or as the interpreter through whom the will of a god is expressed.
2. A person gifted with profound moral insight and exceptional powers of expression.
3. A predictor; a soothsayer.
4. The chief spokesperson of a movement or cause.
I don’t see how being born in 1947 makes a person fit any of the definitions of the word Prophet. I also don’t think Strauss & Howe can redefine the word to suit their ideas, because the word is so ridiculously loaded.
Anyhow, the 4 stage cycles in Ecosystems was analyzed by Holling and Gunderson back in the 1970s, and has shown its applicability across the board into Economic theory as well as Human Social Systems. In case you missed it I covered this recently in “Panarchy & The One to The Many-The Final Countdown”
http://www.doomsteaddiner.org/blog/2012/10/13/panarchy-the-one-to-the-many-the-final-countdown/
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“….The beauty of the Holling-Gunderson model of Panarchy is that it applies across the board to just about all ecosystems, from Trees and Forests to Insects to Mammalian life forms. It also has direct applications in Economics as well. Much of the work done on this stuff was done back in the 1970s, but some of it goes back as far as the 1940s.
In a direct parallel to this work, you have the “4th Turning” Generational theory of Strauss & Howe, which identifies 4 major Eras that modern Homo Sapiens passes through on roughly and 80 year cycle. Each of these eras has a direct parallel in the cycles desribed by Holling & Gunderson.
What is fundamentally different between these models is the Timeline issue, the Holling/Gunderson model is a time independent model which can work on many different timescales, where as the Strauss & Howe model is fixated on the 80 year timeline of modern history….”
RE
Administrator says:
RE
You need to read the book to understand the term Prophet. It is a generational term, not a term describing the positive aspects of Romney by comparing him to Moses or Abraham.
Wow! In all my years of reading articles on the internet..I have never seen the use of such large and grandious words…I feel like a kindergartener in a physics.
class.
One of the reasons my countrymen and -women are so stupid is because they are totally under the spell of the alphabet networks’ “news” divisions.
They are conditioned to frame reality according to what these corrupt organizations share with them. A big story on the nightly news must to be about something really important. Perhaps worse, stories that have no air time must not be worth thinking about or even knowing about. I know this is true because I was one of their victims for quite a while.
Many of you are not old enough to remember TV news coverage during the Vietnam war. Americans were treated every night at dinner time to scenes of battle and blood, death and destruction from the battlefield. This had a great deal to do, I believe, with building the outrage that helped bring an end to that conflict. Contrast that to today’s blackout of even pictures of soldiers’ coffins arriving home. We must be kept unknowing and docile, truly sheeple.
What really distresses me is that otherwise intelligent and reasonably aware people will not face this. I am tired of trying to get them to wake up and tired of being thought of as “out there.”. They smirk.
The media and their handlers have done a fabulous job. This is another factor in the velocity of the stormy winds to come.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory#Prophet
I didnt read this because I didnt read the book, RE, but this is what is being referred to.
Many of you are not old enough to remember TV news coverage during the Vietnam war -Gayle
My teacher, I was in a Texas elementary school, rolled the TV into class and had us watch it. I was born in 1960.
“You need to read the book to understand the term Prophet. It is a generational term, not a term describing the positive aspects of Romney by comparing him to Moses or Abraham.”-Sensi
I get the way the word is being used, I just think it is too loaded a word to use that way. Besides that, I don’t buy the whole concept of stereotyping people by their generation, anymore than I buy that your Astrological Sign and Time of your Birth determines your personality characteristics.
It is no doubt a valid observation that we have been running in around 80 year cycles at least since the Enlightenment, but as I have noted before this coincides basically with the length of time a monetary system based on debt can last with an average interest (or inflation) rate of 2-3%.
RE
http://doomsteaddiner.org
Prophecies can become self-fulfilling……
The fourth turnip will be naother profit year for the F.R. Boyz
The profit for the next turnip will the trillions shifted from U.S> banks to our European fiends banks. Meanwhile lots of profits will be placed in secure gold vaults in China, Russia, and other F.R. vaults around the world. Of course a verticle trust conspiracy is beyond the mental capacity of administrators of this timeless world residing on a b.p. where simpering-simplistic wordscrabbles are cremated on a daily basis using hempweed!! for inspirational coughing, regurgitation cycles! Your sincere friend, Doc; trying to introduce meaning into your babbling life!!!!!!!!!!!
@Muck – thanks and right back at you. I know you were in Hawaii during its heyday, maybe you have a keen eye and a soft spot in your heart for non-obese, non-tattooed, ukulele-playing Hapa Haole girls – all of which I do happen to be! I never take your compliments as sexist, I quite distain the feminists who have killed chivalry and the natural ability of a gentleman such as yourself to pay a gal an honest compliment. So thank you & Congrats to you and your lucky wife — I wish you many more happy years together. And while we do have this giant turd of Boomers separating our respectively tiny generations, I’m quite pleased to be currently raising 2 members of the next ‘Artist’ generation variously called the ‘New Silents’ or ‘Homelanders’. I will be a proud mom if they turn out even 1/2 as cool as your silent gen — old enough to remember the Crisis and therefore wish to prevent another one through compromise, caution and pragmatism; but young enough to really enjoy and appreciate the next High and to be the producers of the wonderful flourishing of arts, culture, commerce and institutions that will make the next High grand. Be well, Muck, we need you around for a good long time. 🙂
Re: Reality’s rant – may have been one long paragraph but made perfect sense to me. He’s obviously making a nearly final, frenzied attempt to recount a lifetime of practical experience for posterity. More specifically, trying to talk some practical sense into the ‘Me Generation’ who has spent the past 40 years in self-obsession, destroying the hard earned inheritance handed them by their parents and then destroying everything and handing a shitpile to their kids. His simple insights would be lost on these BBs even with multiple paragraph breaks, and for anyone under age 45 – we feel your pain and disbelief. We’ve been wondering all our lives since childhood what is wrong with these SPOILED so-called adults, and would like society to simmer down from their cultural rampage of ‘consciousness revolution’, irresponsibility, and societal destruction. We’d also really like them to stop foisting debt and wars on us, and destroying the future for generations to come. But they won’t. So don’t sweat it, and keep the rants coming for the edification and entertainment Gex X and Millennials here.
The failure to factor in Peak Oil, water, uranium, and a whole slew of other resources – that will become increasingly more critical in the next 5-10 years – is a major omission from this otherwise decent article. I do believe resource scarcity will become the most important factor in how our elites make their decisions, and just believing in a Fourth Turning that is almost benign when compared to a potential societal die-off event based on scarcity, makes your predictions of the near future somewhat tame!
“The Core” and 72 angels are dancing around us, there is no more time and we are facing the fire. It’s here and no one can see it only those who have eyes and they are have my arms tied to my chest, behind these walls we see everything and no one sees us. We speak and we are given more medicine. Our eyes see it and we know it and they continue to shut us up. The end is here for all of us no one can see it, but those with eyes. All of you will know the wrath, he hates you.
Colma has a real psychological problem. Or is he jealous? ^_^ I guess he doesn’t like the influx of Chinese, South Koreans, etc. to the Philippines either. All are moving to the Philippines these days. China is buying up all of the Philippines it can, as are many other countries, the US included. I hope that the government here keeps the US from returning to it’s old bases so the Philippines are not a prime target for the Chinese missiles when they fly.
As for being here if there is a world war; I’ll take my chances here and not have to worry about the hell that will be America when they realize that they cannot win and all of the support systems collapse. It appears that some Filipinos are not good at living with mixed cultures. Americans ARE a mixed culture and living with Asians, Africans, Europeans, Latins, etc is part of everyday life.
The whole world is changing, but some places will bottom out at a better place than the US.
Culture is manufactured and generations engineered.
http://www.henrymakow.com/confirmedrockefeller_plan_to_g.html
Rock ‘n roll / hippie “freedom” was an intel op to divide old and young generations. Family breakup is a PTB goal.
The first rock bands were kids of military / intel people (Dave McGowan / Laurel Canyon essays; http://www.henrymakow.com/then_he_began_to_unfold.html ; http://www.henrymakow.com/000530.html ;
). The Beatles were pub nothings before Tavistock / Adorno wrote their music and handled them in general (John Coleman, Coleman300.com; Alan Watt, ex-cover musician, CuttingThroughTheMatrix.com). Yoko Ono was John Lennon’s handler (BarryChamish.com). Watch Lennon’s video “Mind Games” to see him get his status as a tool, and try to tell us (Federal Reserve, Jesuits, the usual suspects). He ate lead for it.
Strauss and Howe may know these things or just pen a theory; ignorance is best case. History is directed (TheDailyBell.com). Their book reads like “Tragedy and Hope” or “Drift and Mastery,” kiss-ups to medieval feudalism improved by modern science / agitprop, the CFR/RIIA end game.
In medieval days, peasants needed a leige-lord’s writ just to grow certain vegetables. Aristocrats knew which foods gave health. They desired short, weak, illiterate peasants with enough physical/mental strength to work like other animals, but not rebel. Today’s overlords use chemtrails / GMOs / school-to-work / TV. Monsanto’s employee cafeteria is organic.
Do not pick on my great grandpa, big Richard Stump. I am little richard, ricky for short rick! Only an anchovy would be picking big Richard as a target. Big R. is a veteran of WWII! Granpa is researching the meaning of meaning. He is trying to help the mentally disadvantaged polluting the internet with their asinine theories about generations being related to chaos theory and fractals. Your can’t, sanely mix math + ghosts. For example “time” is the ghost of movement”. A generation of flys can occur in a few days of Earth spin. The Earth goes in three spins for a fly “prophet” to pop up! Now why do so many people go bonkers about “turnings” related to human history while ignoring “fly History?”. Ill bet the chosen flys do the banking for the ” magnet baby flys They are the next “turning flys, you know! Little Doc
Not true, TPC.
Go to the Olympic Peninsula, to the old growth Hoh River rain forest, and then go check out some of the century old regrowth on clear cuts. Pretty, but not at all the same.
How long does a Douglas fir live? 600-1000+ years? A live oak? No way you’re turning a clearcut or a suburb into true old growth in 300 years. Good luck re-creating an open parkland of old-growth ponderosa in slow-growing Montana in a few hundred years too.
SSS – I agree with your questions about how Chris intends to stop all the different ‘environmental onslaughts’. But I do believe he’s right about the sixth extinction event. Just pan around the world on Google Earth. Only a few % of US land area (lower 48) hasn’t been turned to production for the human economy, rather than supporting natural ecosystems. There are other places more pristine, but the human impact on the world is huge. Most places that are relatively untouched are boreal or desert, mostly low-biodiversity systems.
Your challenges are exactly the point: what do we do about our collision course with natural limits? My prediction: overshoot and dieback.
Colma – Sounds like a personal issue.
No problems here, Bukaki1: I just think you’re a douchebag.
Muck: I was going to give it a rest, as I value your advice, and here comes Bukaki1, bright and early with another foolhardy comment.
Yet his comment says it all: A confirmation of delusional narcissism and utter ignorance.
Perhaps you were busy getting a hand-job and slurping down a pungent plate of balut when you missed the part of the article indicating that there is nowhere and no way to lay low during a 4th Turning, Bukaki1.
I almost feel sorry for you…. but not really. I do feel sorry for your children who have such an upstanding specimen of the quintissential low-tier Boomer Shitbag sweating it out like a coward in Manilla.
At least Reverse Engineer, as fucking bonkers as he is, is smart enough to know that if you’re going to hit the road, go where the Zombies don’t go….
Good luck.
Collumm, as you actually know NOTHING about me, you assume a lot. There are many hundreds of thousands of Americans here that are enjoying the country and it’s people.
Apparently you have only experiences with scumbag military types who used to infest many 3rd world countries and still do. Were you raped as a child? You obviously have a mind full of hate and anger to jump on someone who started out defending the Philippines. I still do. Difference is, I have chosen where to spend the last 20-30 years of my life and it is here, on a farm in the countryside with my friends and maybe some of my family.
I wish you well, but you obviously need help.
Bukaki1: You’re snivelling now.
You did not “Start out defending the Phillipines”…. you started out with some pompous and lead-brained comment assuming that the Administrator was selling books and deifying the Mitten.
BTW: I love the Phillipines, or are you so full of yourself that you neglected to read that part of my commentary?
I find it amusing that, without fail, when someone offers a no bullshit assesment of veiled attempts by scumbags to justify their putrification of values, the common retort is that it is “jealousy” or “a psychological issue” or, lol, “rape”.
Get off the dirty train, dude. It’s a lot simpler than that:
You’re being called out as a douchebag, nothing less, nothing more. You’re part of the “I hate America” club…. so be it. You’re just a failed hippy…. and really just a dirty old man… having another crack at life. Now that, I am quite certain of….
Because most of those Americans on the island are expats who are those “scumbag military types” as you call them. Ouch, man. You’re telling a story and don’t even realize it.
Colma, I’m telling it the way I see it and I am not a “Patriotic Zombie” as you appear to be. The US was sold out to the banksters many decades ago, but it is only becoming obvious now. Those same banksters gave the Philippines Marcos and debt.
I used to be blind to reality as you appear to be. Then I got out into the real world outside North America and saw the propaganda spewing from the corporations that own America.
I chose to live here because I choose to live here. No other reason. You read a lot into nothing.
As for my family, they are still supportive of my choices. As for my income, you are only guessing there, and you are way off base. You read a few sentences and, through your filtered mind, see what you want to see. Sorry. End of discussion. you can have the parting shot as I know you need it to feel justified. ^_^