In Part One of this article I explained the model of generational theory as conveyed by Strauss and Howe in The Fourth Turning. In Part Two I provided an overwhelming avalanche of evidence this Crisis has only yet begun, with debt, civic decay and global disorder propelling the world towards the next more violent phase of this Crisis. In Part Three I addressed how the most likely clash on the horizon is between the government and the people. War on multiple fronts will thrust the world through the great gate of history towards an uncertain future.
War on Multiple Fronts
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The drumbeats of war are pounding. Sanctions are implemented against any country that dares question American imperialism (Russia, Iran). Overthrow and ignominious imprisonment or death awaits any foreign leader questioning the petrodollar or standing in the way of America spreading democracy (Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Egypt). The mega-media complex of six corporations peddle the government issued pabulum about ISIS being an existential threat to our freedoms; Russia being led by the new Hitler and poised to take over Europe; Syria gassing innocent women and children; and Iran only six months away from a nuclear bomb (they’ve been six months away for the last fourteen years). Hollywood does their part with patriotic drivel like American Sniper, designed to compel low IQ unemployed American youths to swell with pride and march down to enlistment centers, located in our plentiful urban ghettos.
The most disconcerting aspect of Fourth Turnings is they have always climaxed with total destructive all-out war. Not wars to enrich arms dealers like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, but incomprehensibly violent, brutal, wars of annihilation. There are clear winners and losers at the conclusion of Fourth Turning wars. Leaders mobilize all forces, refuse to compromise, define their enemies in moral terms, demand sacrifice on the battlefield and home front, build the most destructive weapons imaginable, and employ those weapons to obtain victory at any cost.
It may seem inconceivable that war on such a scale will happen within the next ten years, but it was equally inconceivable in 1936 that 65 million people would die in the next ten years during World War II. We valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices leading up to this Crisis and during the early stages of this Crisis. The accumulation of unmet obligations, unpaid bills, un-kept promises and unresolved issues will provide the fuel for an upheaval that will shake our society to its core and transforms the country’s direction for the next sixty years. The outcome of the conflict could be tragedy or triumph. Our choices will make a difference.
There will be war on many fronts, and they have already begun. The culmination will likely be World War III, with the outcome highly uncertain and potentially disastrous.
Currency war
With the world awash in sovereign debt, as governments have over-promised welfare benefits, every country is attempting to debase their currency in order to make their debt load bearable. There is one problem with this approach. If every country is implementing the same strategy, it becomes a race to the bottom. Japan is leading the race and is the most likely candidate to cause a catastrophic collapse in the global financial system. The EU and their negative interest rate strategy is crushing the Euro, but not addressing the solvency issue at the heart of the bank-centric European mad experiment.
The depression engulfing Japan, the recession overwhelming Europe, and the rapidly deflating Chinese mal-investment bubbles have dramatically reduced demand for oil, copper, and iron ore. The collapse in demand for oil has caused the currencies of Russia, Venezuela, Mexico and Brazil to plunge. Argentina, Turkey and the Ukraine risk hyperinflation, as their economies are basket cases. The result of rapidly declining currencies is more pain and suffering for the middle and lower classes. As prices rise for food, energy and essentials, the peasants get restless. This leads to anger, extremist parties gaining traction, and ultimately revolution.
Since the end of World War II, the U.S. dollar has been the currency in which all world trade has been conducted. The global oil trade has been settled in dollars. American economic warfare aggression against Russia, China, Iran, and other developing countries has pushed them into closer economic cooperation. The dollar’s domination days are numbered. The current strength of the dollar is only a reflection of the U.S. being the best looking horse in the glue factory. The U.S. economy is the least worst, but will not be de-coupling from the global downturn. The movement of physical gold from West to East is a reflection of a shift in power. U.S. mega-corporations, who get half their profits overseas, face the double whammy of slowing demand and a stronger dollar. The combination will crush their profits and contribute to the coming stock market crash. When Greece exits the EU, the currency wars may lead to real war in Europe.
Class war
As Warren Buffett admitted in an oligarch momentary lapse into truthiness:
“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” – Warren Buffett
The meme driving the OWS protests was the 1% versus the 99%. The comparison is misleading. The 1% includes many small business owners, productive professionals, successful physicians, and hard-working entrepreneurs. The true class war is between the .1% and the 99.9%. There is a small clique of bankers, billionaires, corporate CEOs, media moguls, politicians, and their acolytes who represent the Deep State, or invisible government, and control the mechanisms of financial markets through their capture of the system. There is absolutely no question they are winning. It’s hard not to win when the game is rigged in your favor by your fellow .1% cronies. The markets are no longer free. They are manipulated and rigged to benefit the .1% at everyone else’s expense. The wealth of the richest has skyrocketed while the wealth of the rest has fallen since 2009. Real median household income languishing at 1989 levels proves they have been the losers. The next financial collapse initiated by the policies designed to benefit the .1% will push class warfare into the streets. Gated communities and doormen will not save the .1% from the wrath of their victims.
Generational war
A particular dicey war is the war between the older generations and younger generations. In past Fourth Turnings the prophet generation (Boomers) has provided leadership for the hero generation (Millennials). The tension between older and younger generations is palpable. Older generations have accumulated wealth during the good times. The Boomers who didn’t save for their retirement refuse to yield the field and allow Millennials into the workforce. Millions of delusional Boomers utilized the easy debt provided by the bankers to live for today and never save for tomorrow. Well tomorrow is here. The older generations are still going to receive all the social benefits they were promised, while younger generations will get stiffed. They know they are going to get screwed and are unlikely to take the screwing lying down.
It’s the older generations who control the levers of society. The aged ruling class has doled out the hundreds of billions in student loan debt and convinced Millennials College was a sure path to success and good jobs. Working as a french fry jockey at McDonalds doesn’t make the grade as a good job. Young people without jobs and without hope are a particularly combustible concoction. If there is revolution in the streets it won’t be led by obese Boomers on their motorized scooters. The barricades will be manned by the young. Confrontation with the police state may be initiated by Gen Xers and Boomers, but the fighting and dying will be done by the Millennials.
Terrorism/Religious war
The war on terrorism, like the wars on drugs and poverty, is unwinnable. They aren’t meant to be won. They are meant to enrich the vested interests, expand their control over our lives, erode our liberties and freedoms, and provoke fear and dependency among the masses. The terrorist plots concocted by the government, using clueless dupes, and then foiled by the DHS agencies that created them are nothing but a ruse to rile up the easily manipulated hoi polloi. The neo-cons want to leave the Middle East a smoking crater in their thirst for blood. The war on terrorism is a cover for hijacking the oil under the ground in the Middle East. ISIS is now Satan, Hitler, and Attila the Hun rolled into one, even though they didn’t exist a year ago. They are the existential threat of the day – the excuse for U.S. troops and armaments to flow back into Iraq. The military industrial complex profits will surge. Despite the fact these terrorists are no threat to our American way of life, the level of fear mongering amongst the chattering classes in Versailles on the Potomac and on the entertainment news networks is at hyperbolic volumes.
Chris Hedges explains the current propaganda storyline as espoused by the Deep State:
“This sentimentality, as Baldwin wrote, masks a terrifying numbness. [The War Culture] fosters an unchecked narcissism. Facts and historical truths, when they do not fit into the mythic vision of the nation and the tribe, are discarded. Dissent becomes treason. All opponents are godless and subhuman… It holds up the dangerous belief that we can recover our equilibrium and our lost glory by embracing an American fascism.” – Chris Hedges
Somebody needs to inform the neo-cons they don’t hate us for our freedoms. They hate us for occupying their lands, reigning terror on their people from unmanned killer drones, invading their countries, interfering in their political processes, and stealing their oil. Islam is most certainly a religion of hate and there will be no reconciliation between Christians, Muslims and Jews. The Middle East will remain a quagmire of hatred, centuries old animosities, religious extremism, despotic leaders, and oil. Terrorism does not pose an existential threat to the United States. It’s laughable to conclude that a country of 320 million, protected by vast oceans, with a trillion dollar military and 300 million guns distributed amongst its population, is actually threatened by a few thousand illiterate religious zealots in the Middle East.
Terrorism is a tactic used by militant groups unable to wage an insurgency or fight a conventional war. The purpose is to lure a larger enemy into an outsized response, resulting in bleeding and bankrupting the larger foe. Osama bin Laden succeeded beyond his wildest expectations, as the U.S. has wasted $6 trillion thus far, along with the lives of 7,000 Americans and 50,000 wounded. The terrorists have already won. They have put our country on the path to bankruptcy, while convincing our leaders to strip the citizens of their liberties, freedoms, and rights. And there are now more militants and terrorists than existed in 2001, in countries that didn’t have terrorists in 2001. The Middle East is a powder-keg which could be the catalyst for the start of World War III.
Cyber war
A cyber war has been being waged against the American people and foreign allies by the NSA for the last decade. The technology addicted masses are completely oblivious to their loss of privacy and freedom. They don’t know or don’t care their rights under the Fourth Amendment are being abridged. You are being tracked and monitored through your electronic devices. Your TV is recording your conversations. The U.S. has been waging cyber war against enemies and allies alike. The U.S. unleashed the Stuxnet computer virus into the Iranian nuclear program computers to set back their efforts by years. That was an act of war. It is now comical to see the governmental outrage when foreign nations and hacker organizations break into government computers and wreak havoc. In cyber war, the playing field is fairly even. Even North Korea can create problems for a superpower. Obama and his acolytes should duly note that Wall Street hired hundreds of Russian computer programmers because they seem to have a penchant for writing code. I’m sure Putin realizes that too.
Hackers have already caused billions in damage to retailers like Target, Home Depot, Staples, Sears, and Neiman Marcus. Over 1,000 merchants have had their computer networks breached. Hackers could potentially bring the financial system to its knees with a few keystrokes. Foreign governments have their smartest tech geeks probing U.S. computer networks for weaknesses and will act on these weaknesses when they feel it is beneficial to their interests. Technology will not save the world, but it might play a part in ending it. All the military firepower at the American Empire’s disposal may be nothing more than our Maginot Line during the next worldwide conflict. If satellites and computer systems can be disabled through computer code, leaders will be blind, deaf and dumb to threats. This would ratchet up the odds of someone panicking and pushing the wrong button at the wrong time. The future of the world may hang in the balance.
Civil war
It appears this Fourth Turning’s primary driving force will be the internal conflict between government and the people. To linear thinkers, self-proclaimed progressives, corrupt politicians, obedient government workers, and those dependent upon the government for their sustenance, the thought of civil war in the United States is inconceivable. Civil uprisings generally occur after currency collapse when mass hunger and poverty overtake the land. A breakdown in the electronic based economic system in which store shelves go empty, fuel becomes scarce, and the electronic transfer of welfare benefits ceases would create mass chaos in the streets. With our just in time supply chain, a grid failure or breakdown of electronic ordering, payment and communication would bring the nation to its knees within one week. Millions would perish within a few weeks. The government would attempt to utilize the military and national guard to maintain order. With their families also starving and no means of getting paid, will they be obeying the orders of a government that caused the collapse?
The other possibility is secession. It’s been tried before and the conflict was bloody and earth shattering. There really are two Americas. The east and west coasts are dominated by the liberal elite who look down upon the rest of the country. The .1% mostly resides in their gated enclaves, penthouse suites, and luxury beachfront mansions. They have nothing but contempt and disdain for the average American, living in Middle America or the South. The feeling is mutual amongst the working class towards the liberal elites. Most of the 300 million guns are concentrated in the Midwest and South. As trust in government and institutions wanes, the issue of states’ rights is likely to gain traction amongst a large swath of the critical thinking citizenry. The animosity between factions in this country is at historic levels. Again, civil war, secession, and the nation breaking into sectional regions of common interests are unlikely to occur until the existing social order collapses under the weight of un-payable obligations. That time is coming.
Total war
Every previous Fourth Turning climax coincided with total war on a grand scale. Each Fourth Turning war has seen a leap in the technological means of killing human beings. We put a lot of effort and resources into finding better ways to annihilate humanity. The Civil War saw 5% of the male population killed. World War II saw 65 million people killed. How many will die during this Fourth Turning total war of survival? Fourth Turning wars are decisive, final and fought with all necessary means until final victory or defeat, not like Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. World War I was savage and brutal, but it was not decisive. It left issues unresolved and its Treaty of Versailles created the basis for World War II. The technological means to put an end to mankind is at the disposal of leaders in a number of nation-states. It would only take one psychopathic despot or elected president of immense ego and self-importance to initiate the doomsday clock. It appears these qualities are now essential to governing a modern day nation. Someone will do something stupid, and then all hell will break loose.
Anyone who doesn’t comprehend the implications of alliances being formed and broken by countries around the globe is either choosing the ostrich strategy or is ignorant of history and the events leading to wars. A thorough reading of The Guns of August may be helpful. The world is like a room full of gunpowder and the sociopaths running the show keep lighting matches. Someone is going to miscalculate and the place is going to blow sky high. The insolvent EU is splintering. The northern countries despise the southern countries. Greece, Spain and Italy are all economic basket cases and their exits will mark the end of this grand experiment in debt delusion. Once the bad debts crash down upon the European banks and governments, the anger, bitterness, accusations and violence will reach epic proportions. This could trigger war, as extremist political parties gain traction. The economic suffering in the 1920’s led to the rise of Mussolini and Hitler. Hunger leads the peasants to rally behind any strong leader.
The Ukrainian civil war, crafted by the U.S. and its weak kneed NATO allies, has been the facilitator of a shift in world alliances. The U.S. has made a blundering attempt to teach Putin a lesson for interfering in their Syrian pipeline uprising against Assad and encouraging the Crimea to rejoin Russia. By attempting to position NATO armaments on Russia’s border they have triggered centuries old fears of being invaded by European powers. Russia will stop the U.S. plan at all costs, and the Russian supported rebels have soundly defeated the Kiev Nazi forces in eastern Ukraine. The U.S. backed forces have slaughtered women and children randomly as they blunder about in eastern Ukraine. The latest cease fire will not hold. Germany and France are coming to their senses and starting to look out for their best interests, rather than the interests of the American Empire. A shattering of the NATO alliance would be an earth moving event and would set the stage for further conflict in Europe. Enemies are interchangeable when you are an imperial power.
The world has begun to devolve into two distinct factions. The imperialist actions of the American Empire in the Middle East and Ukraine have pushed Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Iran closer together regarding trade deals; transacting commerce without using the USD; oil and gas pipelines; and military cooperation. If there is going to be total war in the next dozen or so years, it most surely would be the United States versus an alliance of Russia and China. Japan is experiencing Chinese saber rattling over disputed islands. Russia continuously probes NATO defenses with aggressive actions. It is clear the U.S. has decided Vladimir Putin and Russia is world enemy #1 and are using all their economic and propaganda tools to de-claw the bear. Failure to make Putin bow to American pressure will raise his stature at home and abroad.
China’s domestic, economic and social issues continue to worsen. They are in the midst of experiencing an epic bust after a debt fueled explosion of government manufactured growth. Their fraudulent economic boom is coming to a messy end. Totalitarian regimes are known for using foreign threats to distract the populace from domestic suffering. As a matter of fact, all regimes use this tactic. When the global economy rips apart at the seams due to the debt saturation, world leaders will attempt to blame other countries for their dire circumstances. Foreign enemies are good for business. Ask our Nobel Peace Prize winning President. War is inevitable.
Strauss & Howe pose four potential culminations to our current Crisis, only one of which offers hope. There may be other possibilities, but probably not. The outcome which will not happen is just a continuation of the status quo, with the same corrupt leadership using the same debt based solutions, as they enrich themselves and their cronies. The existing social order will be replaced by something new, but not necessarily better, if there is anything left after a war that could end in Armageddon:
- This Fourth Turning could mark the end of man. It could be an omnicidal Armageddon, destroying everything, leaving nothing. If mankind ever extinguishes itself, this will probably happen when its dominant civilization triggers a Fourth Turning that ends horribly. For this Fourth Turning to put an end to all this would require an extremely unlikely blend of social disaster, human malevolence, technological perfection and bad luck.
- The Fourth Turning could mark the end of modernity. The Western saecular rhythm – which began in the mid-fifteenth century with the Renaissance – could come to an abrupt terminus. The seventh modern saeculum would be the last. This too could come from total war, terrible but not final. There could be a complete collapse of science, culture, politics, and society. Such a dire result would probably happen only when a dominant nation (like today’s America) lets a Fourth Turning ekpyrosis engulf the planet. But this outcome is well within the reach of foreseeable technology and malevolence.
- The Fourth Turning could spare modernity but mark the end of our nation. It could close the book on the political constitution, popular culture, and moral standing that the word America has come to signify. The nation has endured for three saecula; Rome lasted twelve, the Soviet Union only one. Fourth Turnings are critical thresholds for national survival. Each of the last three American Crises produced moments of extreme danger: In the Revolution, the very birth of the republic hung by a thread in more than one battle. In the Civil War, the union barely survived a four-year slaughter that in its own time was regarded as the most lethal war in history. In World War II, the nation destroyed an enemy of democracy that for a time was winning; had the enemy won, America might have itself been destroyed. In all likelihood, the next Crisis will present the nation with a threat and a consequence on a similar scale.
- Or the Fourth Turning could simply mark the end of the Millennial Saeculum. Mankind, modernity, and America would all persevere. Afterward, there would be a new mood, a new High, and a new saeculum. America would be reborn. But, reborn, it would not be the same.
I would love to just be an impartial observer during this Fourth Turning, like a sports announcer in a booth far above the field, broadcasting the events as they unfold. But, it is not to be. I’m living in the midst of this Crisis with all the other participants. I’m not happy about the prospect of financial collapse, societal collapse, and war. I have three young sons and refuse to allow them to be used as cannon fodder by the State, in their quest to retain dominion over the American people. I understand the younger generations must do the heavy lifting during this Crisis, but I do not relish the prospect of putting them in harm’s way. It’s not fair they are left with the burdens created by decades of bad choices and cowardly acts of their elders. But no one said life is fair. This generation was born at a particular time in history when much will be required. They have a rendezvous with destiny. None of us has a choice. We can’t sit this one out. The bad times ahead will require courage, fortitude, sacrifice and intelligence, if we are to be triumphant. This Fourth Turning could end in apocalypse or glory. Our decisions and choices will matter. Prepare now.
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe
Always believed I could out “gloom and doom” anyone – until I came here.
The only way any miracle of “reform” could ever happen to save our future (and this is still only a very slim chance) is as some others have commented elsewhere if the millionaires decide to revolt (with the support of the middle class) against the billionaires.
Even if this actually happened, do we have enough resources on our planet to support growing populations especially with climate problems? And I agree with Welshman that technology isn’t our salvation.
All the banksters are doing is trying to keep everything going to enrich themselves before the charade is up.
We are ruled by SCORPIONS.
People think “Oh, the President and his men (and women) wouldn’t do anything that would lead to their own annihilation, too, right? They wouldn’t risk setting off a nuclear war that would alter the climate of the planet for enough years to cause crop failures for a decade, leading to the starvation of all but small, isolated pockets of humans, right?”
http://archive.lewrockwell.com/calderwood/calderwood48.1.html
We are ruled by utter sociopaths who, if it suited them, would absolutely send their own sons and daughters into a meat grinder and not blink an eye.
People intoxicated with power are NOT HUMAN.
Our best scientists have handed the very survival of the human species to the most delusional, toxic, and rabidly egocentric personalities to walk the face of the Earth.
And “we” (our neighbors, friends and families) VOTE for them.
“Prepare now.”
This is the thing that gets me.
I’ve read TFT; I’ve read Jim’s four-part series, and will go back and read it over and again until I can really grasp it. And I’ve worked to educate myself through sites like this, ZeroHedge and countless valuable others. And I’ve done what I can to prepare to take care of my family when trying times arrive.
But is that it? Just beef up supplies and skills so my immediate loved ones can weather the storm? It just feels so petty, so small. Doesn’t having foreknowledge give me a responsibility to do more? If so, what?
I know I can’t change the course of events. I’m not going to find a way to improve government or society and avert whatever’s coming. I also know how frustrating and futile it is to try to wake people up. But it feels so impotent to just sit here in wait. I’m sure I can help a few people on the other side. But is that really all we can contribute to our communities?
What are other people doing that’s positive and constructive given all that’s happening, and all that we can expect to happen?
Two things:
1. Historians pay no attention to people who sidestepped historically dangerous periods and who somehow thrived. We know next to nothing about how our ancestors who WERE NOT famous, or were NOT victims of pogroms, religious exterminations, etc., ducked the troubles. This would be helpful, because there has to be a way.
2. Every “revolution,” from the French to the American, and the English Civil War to everything else, was run by people who had SOMETHING TO GAIN, usually something financial.
Claims that it was “ideologically pure” people “trying to make the world better” are myths spun for stupid people. It was actually people jockeying for power and money who animated every major trend change and the social spectacles we associate with them. I suppose this means we should still “follow the money” to see how all this is going to play out.
People who read TBP (including me) are just numbers. We don’t matter as individuals, except to ourselves and our loved ones. Anyone who is not a family member who tells you he (or she) is acting in your best interests should be deemed an enemy except in extraordinary circumstances.
There are no road maps to surviving epochal change. Those who did so in the past are entirely ignored by historians. Their deeds are not heroic, their lives were largely boring (let’s hear it for boring.)
The only thing I can see is to remain flexible and cultivate resiliency. Stay as fit and strong as possible for our age. Cultivate relationships based on mutual respect. Burn no bridges. “Prep” as seems feasible, knowing that the Mel Tappan version (moving out to the boonies) is not particularly attractive on a number of levels.
And cultivate patience. Some of us thought the Big Change was upon us in 1995. Here we are 20 years later, scratching our heads and wondering about the opportunity costs of being so grossly wrong on timing.
fuckmedead. I should just eat some lead right now.
Can we have a Part V … you know, all the Good Shit that the survivors will enjoy after it’s all over …. please?
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“Duck and Cover”
“even a newspaper [over your head] can save you from a bad burn”
—– Westcoaster’s video @7:57
Proof that even in 1951 the Amerikan government treated citizens as if we were Dumbfuks.
Stucky,
Proof that even in 1951 Dumbfuks were voting in rulers who treated them as morons they were.
MPAI. Most People Are Idiots. The fact that there are 7 billion humans alive today is proof positive that times are fat, dumb and happy indeed. Not 1 in 1000 alive today would survive conditions considered normal 700 years ago.
If conditions were to revert to those of the 14th century, the die-off would truly be epic. Even a single MIRV warhead would probably achieve that, and I think the USA and Russia have hundreds of them at least. We’d better hope this 4th Turning does NOT involve all-out war using the worst of the modern arsenal. None of us would survive that.
One or two dirty bomb’s or whatever would cause an EMP. And we would be screwed.
We have some other large problems.California is about drying up. I hear nothing about how the loss of crops will affect us in the long run. Jobs,Actually the lack of them, Washington keeps on telling lies about it,People look around and see this. How long until people start rioting.
From what i have read on TBP,I feel an economic collapse is just a matter of time.
Looking around at what our government has become i think it may well be about time for change.
Freaking McCain is going to run again! I never could figure out why we don’t have term limits.
Interesting times ahead!
I’m tired.
Well I just copied all four parts to my hard drive, an external drive, and also printing it as we speak ….. just in case the gooberment shuts down the net.
46 pages …… 13,582 words.
Jimbo’s work here is done. How can he ever top this?
We need more fluff.
Shirley Godbunny’s babies are due this week, Stucky. I had my list of 14 points to ponder (5 was a ? and now I know why) while I made my beloved’s pancakes and bacon to break his fast (Nick is as likely to go 16 hours between meals as Stucky is likely to use his hands for what God intended).
Now, as if by magik this NOT frivolous post appeared, AS IF, to push Stucky’s Wiccan Post to the wayside. By the way? For a long time, I thought Wiccan were the people who made wicker furniture. And now, because I think Jim’s 4th turning post deserves my full attention, I will abandon the frivolity here and take it to your QOTD.
Part four is the best yet!
Admin say: We can’t sit this one out.
Unless I get nuked, I plan on taking an extended vacation in the back country and doing just that, sitting this one out. You must realize the dying will happen in short order, when people can’t feed themselves they will put all those personal firearms to work in pursuit of food and clean water. To paraphrase Clint ” the dying will be easy, it’s living that’s hard” and you know today’s fat, lazy Americans they will take the easy way out every time.
Good Luck and Godspeed. One mo thang………Fucking Hide..it’s not just the best plan, it’s the only plan.
My favorite pic!
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BTW
Grandson, he’s going with pop.
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Islam is most certainly a religion of hate
Put that type of line in an article, and I know you are drinking the msm kool aid.
Look at the conservative-liberal map posted in the article. Illinois is surrounded, which is to say, CHICAGO is surrounded. Obama better think twice about where he goes after his second term.
Raptor just for you!
TFT was a very heady write IMOP!I Personally i see the fourth turning as cyclical . The very fact that we as human s need to sleep and dream is suspect.! memory is suspect in many. I am saying that if a President of this country can not recollect what he did or not do at a fairly recent event , speaks to me volumes. Man , all mankind is suspect in MHO. If asking for a recollection of a recent historical event is iffy, how in the world should we expect a trustworthy recounting of events down thru the millinium that evolved into what you and I wake up to every morning. especially as many strong men in the past have done their best to alter there verocity thru such methods as for example , book burning and ethnic cleansing , all just to erase memory and thus histories verocity enabling the altering of facts, writing new history, That also was imployed by the ancient cultures if ones Gods were of a more antiquity then they could demand more authority ect..I believe you need to learn from past experience but how do you do that if the facts are constantly being altered by whoever ! Yes I believe we are doomed , we have not learned from the things we as a species have suffered and given the technology I agree we could very well wipe ourselves out of existance , but I also believe in the one who at the corner who , just as your about to step in front of the speeding car some thing or some one prevents our demise , Yes I believe in the IN
premature postulation , as i was saying in finishing I believe in the invisible hand! now im done!
Another good piece of writing Admin. I know it can be tiring but there’s no rest for the weary. You are in a war .Both spirituality and mentally.It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.Besides , you are in a much better position then millions of others. So Cheers.
There is the Great depression. Most people knew how to farm or at least plant a garden. They grew most of there own food.Both sides of my family were farmers They raised their own animals. Mostly cows , pigs and chickens. They fished a lot on the Great Pee Dee river .They told me it took a lot of hard work but they never went hungry.There was still very strong Christian principles people obeyed. In all the hardship people who could were still generous in spirit.
No home, could you expand on what you just posted in a manner my hillbilly ass could understand?
Are you talkin about Jesus, who we all know is a Fox News watching Republican?
I would put my money on Option #1. To my eyes, while the ultra wealthy elites pulling the strings behind the curtain have certainly contributed to the disaster about to befall us, they pale in comparison to the even bigger disaster caused by 7+ billion humans breeding out of control while being stuck on an orb of finite resources whirling through space. The more optimistic Pollyanna’s among us would like to believe that science and human ingenuity will find the answers just in time to save our collective asses, such as fusion reactors and large-scale spaceflight and out-migration to the stars… These are the dreams of fiction; there are simply not enough resources to save everyone and it does not take a rocket scientist to see the game is just about up. The end of oil would have resulted in the population “returning” (a nice euphemism for dying off) back to pre-fossil fuel consumption levels somewhere around 1+billion at the start of the Industrial Revolution.
However, we are not just facing the End of (Energy Return on Energy Invested) Oil, but economic disaster caused by the exponential growth of debt and overshoot from the financialization of everything. Combine this with near-exhaustion of natural resources of all varieties worldwide; heavy and almost total dependence on industrialized agriculture, fossil fuel based transportation, and wholescale genetic engineering of crops to keep the exploding human population fed, and you have a disaster of epic proportions in the making when it all implodes…
Of course it is speculation but speculation based upon observable facts that the only real solution is for a population reset to sustainable levels and a tighter management of population thereafter. Whether by conscious design or unconscious accident, we seem to be on a one way course to mass human die-off and likely extinction. Never in human history have we had such a capacity for extinguishing the human species such as we have today. Any Fourth Turning war will inevitably spiral out of control into total war-Ala 1914-style assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand leading to the conflagration of all of Europe. Only this time, what will start with small scale skirmishes between proxies will turn into crippling cyber attacks in retaliation, leading to skirmishes between armies – leading to use of tactical then strategic nukes – leading to the final use of bioweapons as a final, suicidal orgy of self destruction. The initial desire by the elites to cull the herd and divert the restless masses into a controlled financial collapse and short, victorious war will rapidly spin out of their control into a conflagration that engulfs the entire human species. What survivors – if any, will be reduced to a neo-paleolithic type of existence of hunter-gatherers living in the shadows of smoldering radioactive rubble while living on a diet of rats and cockroaches, with all the accumulated knowledge of thousands of years of human civilization irretrievably lost like the fabled Library of Alexandria…
No home, my spiritual advisor (Stucky) and all knowing when it comes to the Good Book will school you on the book of Revelations when he gets back. I think there’s something about a real big war that kills a third part of man.
I emailed Neil Howe this morning to tell him about your magnum opus and he emailed back. I’m not going to copy the whole thing, but this needs to be passed on-
“I am indebted to him for enlarging the community of those who look at the “big picture” from the generational perspective.”
Sweet.
A truly impressive work, Jim, really.
Hardscrabble
I sent links to the four parts to Neil Howe this evening. It would be cool if he commented on TBP. Of course, Llpoh would probably call him a douchebag and start World War III.
“No home, … Stucky .. will school you on the book of Revelations when he gets back.” — Sensetti
I would except, like yourself, i don’t have an effing clue what he’s talking about. All I can glean is that someone’s jerking him off with an Invisible Hand. (That COULD be Jeebus since He said “come unto me” …….. but I doubt it.)
I’m putting this here instead of the Ukie thread because this thread is about war.
There have been some posters here who believe that at the end of the day the USA!USA!USA! won’t actually risk going to war against a nation with 10,000 nukes over Ukraine. That it is all show and bluster …. and rational actions will prevail.
You might wanna rethink that, Grasshopper …. considering that the Head Nigger In Charge is a psycho-fucking-path maniac.
=====================================================
Obama Threatened Putin Before Minsk Meeting – German Media
Published: February 12, 2015
Several German media institutions wrote that during the recent phone conversation, US President Barack Obama threatened the Russian President Vladimir Putin with serious consequences for Russia’s alleged involvement in the Ukrainian conflict.
US President Barack Obama warned Vladimir Putin that “the costs for Russia will rise” if the country does not stop its alleged involvement in the Ukrainian crisis, German media wrote.
This was in reference to the recent phone conversation between the leaders of two countries, which took place a day before the reconciliation talks on the Ukrainian crisis in Minsk.
“Obama is urging Putin to peace and threatening,” the German newspaper “Die Zeit” wrote. According to the newspaper, the US president told Vladimir Putin that he would have to pay a high price if the conflict is not settled.
“Der Spiegel” magazine also noted that Obama’s calls for peace contained a threatening tone. The US leader once again accused Russia of military involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. If Russia continues its “aggressive actions” in Ukraine and provides independence supporters with weapons and financial assistance, then “the costs for Russia will rise”, Obama warned.
The US recently announced that it is considering the possibility of supplying Ukrainian troops with lethal weapons.
The issue of direct US military assistance still remains on the US agenda, the Swiss newspaper “Blick” wrote, adding, however, that European countries such as Germany, the UK, Denmark, Austria and Sweden oppose the idea of US involvement in the Ukrainian crisis.
http://sputniknews.com/us/20150212/1018164901.html#ixzz3RXmDhE6o
Damn Simon, don’t sugar coat it .Tell it like it is …….I think I’m better off just dying.
Principal Robert Archuleta said a student was misbehaving with his friends and took things too far. The student threw an American flag out a second-story classroom window. Now the principal says the 14-year-old needs to be held accountable, so he called the FBI to handle this “federal offense”.
The principal is a veteran. His father is also a veteran who fought in World War II. “A lot of men have died over the flag, men and women,” Archuleta said. “We fought to keep our country safe and to keep it free.”
I guess this worthless statist Beaner doesn’t see the irony …. errr, hypocrisy … of his beliefs.
Not only do you need to fear your zombie neighbor, but also a large population of flag-loving uber-nationalists who believe Amurika can do no wrong, ever. Fuck you Robert Archuleta.
http://krqe.com/2015/02/09/principal-to-contact-fbi-after-student-throws-us-flag/
What could go wrong?
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“By attempting to position NATO armaments on Russia’s border they have triggered centuries old fears of being invaded by European powers. Russia will stop the U.S. plan at all costs”
This is exactly correct. And they will succeed.
Admin’s Theme Song.
[img]http://youtu.be/oBIxScJ5rlY[/img]
Once again.
Admin’s Theme Song.
Sensetti
You want to see a true religion of hate, turn on the nightly news
@Simon Jester “The more optimistic Pollyanna’s among us would like to believe that science and human ingenuity will find the answers just in time to save our collective asses, such as fusion reactors and large-scale spaceflight and out-migration to the stars.”
Google “Alternative Three” (except use http://www.startpage.com, not Google). The technology for “out-migration” has been going on for decades. Ever heard of Gary McKinnon? Not sayin’ that’s gonna save our sorry asses, just that Alternative One and Two didn’t work, but Three is possible for the chosen ones.
400 tons of radioactive water is being dumped daily into the Pacific from fukishima and the moron scientist cant figure out why all the sea life is dying/dead. All seas are connected. All weather comes the oceans. No need for nuclear war. Wimper not a bang.
I read this post over at Zero Hedge. Sure enough, that douche, David Pierre, made some silly, snide comments. It’s as predictable as night following day.
Who is this guy? The dude is obsessive. Clearly doesn’t have a life.
It’s interesting that there is nothing past modernity in the Strauss and Howe outcome list. One great failing of their observation that cultures turn on an 80 year cycle has been their inability to account for things that they have not witnessed through the study of history.
At this point, we are past scarcity. All the needs of the people are provided for in such great quantity that 100 million people have no jobs in the US. This is a great boon. We are also on the verge of an energy renaissance that will mark the end of energy scarcity. What has not evolved is the distribution system used by the psychopaths to dominate and control. This is why we are faced with their wrath through “austerity” and other forced, artificial scarcity schemes.
Also, the mores of a culture must evolve with the times. One great failing of American culture in particular is the continued devotion to Calvinism, voiced in the guise of the “work ethic”. The insidious part of this outdated moral matrix is giving everyone with wealth a free pass from the obligations of toil. It is no wonder this is a favorite theme of the elites, and their wholly-owned media never ceases to beat that drum.
It seems someone is always stirring that pot, talking about the indolent poor, with their Obamaphones and SNAP cards, and lamenting their general unworthiness. While at the same time people are treated to the miraculous story of the lone bootstrapper who went from rags to riches. If only we could all be like them! Nobody ever condemns the rich for their wretched idleness.
Perhaps there is a 5th outcome where we evolve past modernity, and leave the psychopaths and their control freak belief systems behind.
Simon Jester has described the reason as to why the outcomes 3 and 4 for this Fourth Turning are not achievable. We simply do not have the energy and resources available to rebuild, or to keep our current system running.
However, it will not be the End of Man. Everything points to a purge of massive proportions, leading to a population reduction of about 85-90%. Most of us will die. Most of our children will die. But, not all of us.
I do not think that amassing firearms and supplies will protect you. On the contrary, roaming warbands, will identify you as primary target to rob and plunder after the central government disintegrated.
Without government, there is no more protection of your property. The strong rule the weak, for at least some period. Warbands are stronger than a couple of guys with military grade weapons, because they have the manpower. A survivalist or Prepper does not stand a chance.
I am from Europe, so finding a retreat is even more difficult. But even in the US Warbands will find you.
A couple of decades after the denouement of the Crisis period the survivors will probably have organized themselves into communities that closely resemble medieval structures. A lord/monarch supported by the clergy and a couple of warriors, and the rest are all farmers (free or landless) providing food for protection.
If we are lucky, most will return to Hunter-Gatherer status: Less work, more happiness and the occasional war against the neighboring tribe to keep our numbers low.
I stand in awe, admin.In 46 pages,(according to Stuck ) you’ve managed to summarize what major tomes of economic and historical analyst have oft failed to explain in hundred of pages.Man is a fallen creature and thus any consolidated corporate power allowed over a collective of lackadaisical group thinkers will always without a fail , be abused to the point of self-destruction and thus the only salvation I can see for the future of mankind is most certainly to be delivered in the from of divine intervention.
+1000
Mayhap you could join the separate parts of this post in one to facilitate an ease of dissemination.
FWIW -You should take a break now from peering so deeply into the abyss and refresh your soul.
flash
The windchill today and through the weekend is NEGATIVE 6 degrees. I think I’ll stay in the house and sleep.
Fourth Turning or not, the fuse of the debt bomb is lit. There is no way to put it out. TPTB are trying to keep it burning slowly, but the debt bomb can’t be prevented from exploding indefinitely. Something will cause that final explosion. A short piece by Charles Hugh Smith recently crystalized the coming storm for me:
The Lesson of Greece: Only Collapse Makes Real Change Possible
By Charles Hugh Smith, February 5, 2015
Of the many lessons we can learn from Greece’s difficult path to rejection of debt-serfdom, the most important is perhaps the most obvious: no real change is possible until the Status Quo can no longer fulfill its promises, i.e. it effectively collapses. The collapse of the Status Quo has two distinct features: the process is highly variable, and the process affects the social classes in different ways. The process of collapse is neither sudden nor smooth. Things do not necessarily cease to function overnight; rather, the decline to effective collapse operates much like energy states in physics: systems decay and then drop to a lower energy level, where they are stable until further decay causes the next drop to an even lower level.
Pension payments provide a ready example. The pension payment is reduced, and the recipient tightens his/her belt and gets by. The next reduction (either outright or via inflation) forces drastic changes in consumption, and subsequent reductions reduce the pension to a supplement that cannot possibly support a retiree, much less their family. The pension is still issued, but the promise of a pension that could support a household at a modest level of consumption has collapsed. Though the system for issuing pensions still exists, it no longer fulfills the original purpose. In this sense, the collapsed pension system becomes much like the phantom legions of the late Roman Empire: the paymasters and officers still received the legion’s pay, but there were no real soldiers; the legion was a bookkeeping entry in a skimming operation, not a fighting unit. The financial Aristocracy (i.e. the kleptocracy) in Greece avoided much of the pain of debt-serfdom. What’s the point of running things if you can’t distribute the pain to others?
The powerless classes were strip-mined first. Bamboozled into voting for the Kleptocracy in previous elections, the powerless lower classes felt the brunt of austerity for the simple reason the kleptocracy knew there would be no blowback, as long as a few shreds of swag were being distributed. This highlights the critical role of complicity in maintaining a corrupt, venal and parasitic kleptocracy: the passivity and silence of recipients of social welfare are bought very cheaply, as these classes will fear the loss of the miserable coins tossed to them. This fear is a potent form of financial terrorism: any resistance or protest might trigger the loss of the reduced social welfare benefits, and so the powerless choose to remain powerless rather than rise up and take the risk of bringing down the parasitic kleptocracy.
The statist bourgeoisie (a.k.a. state-funded upper middle class) were the last to lose faith in the kleptocracy, for the simple reason that their share of the swag was sufficient to maintain the facade of middle-class comfort. It was also enough to sustain the illusion that the kleptocracy’s abject kowtowing to the Lords of the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would magically become a winning strategy for Greece, rather than a one-way ticket to permanent debt-serfdom. When the kleptocracy lost a significant percentage of this top 20%, they sealed their fate. When the state apparatchiks, institutional functionaries, professionals, small business owners, etc. finally lose faith in the Status Quo, the Status Quo is doomed, though it can stage a rear-guard action by brutally suppressing this class (see Venezuela for an example of this doomed defense of a failed Status Quo).
In the U.S., the top 10% are doing very well, the next 10% are getting enough to sustain the illusion that they may yet recover their former status and wealth, and the bottom 80% have been bought off with social welfare or the promise of social welfare. Some variation of these percentages are in play in Europe, China, Japan and the emerging economies that haven’t already imploded. When the illusion that the Status Quo can fulfill all its promises to everybody dies, the Status Quo starts the terminal slide to effective collapse. Unfortunately, no real change in the social order or power structure can occur until the effective collapse of the Status Quo has taken down everyone but the kleptocrats, their high-ranking apparatchiks and the piteously delusional.
I have read the four articles and find the fourth turning fascinating and have studied it for years. One thing everyone keeps leaving out is who is running all the electrical plants during this crisis? How about the 450 nuclear plants? Without electricity these plants go to full melt down in 30 days at best. War Bands? Really? A bullet might be merciful compared to dying from radiation. Earth is fucked. To hope there is any chance for man to survive or make a come back is pure fantasy. Now, lets get back to that argument about TARP. Too funny.
Thank you from the bottom (and top) of my heart Jim. Your epic writing has inspired and frightened me for years now, you have taught, shown and interested me in so much. Thank you.
I’m freaking beyond tired. Between feeling trapped in a deja’ vu home hell, and mentally dealing with the upcoming crisis in relation to my children – I have at least moved on from caring about what happens to me, it is what happens to them is what fills my stomach with dread – I’ve slowly descended into a pretty dark place where caring about things that will soon be long distant memories feels wayyyy too hard. Today was the VDay celebration, as an aside, Monday may be President’s Day, but aside from getting Monday & Tuesday off for “Mid Winter Break,” there has been NO mention of our founders and their upcoming celebration. NONE. We did a whole month on Dr. King and Nelson Mandela and Obama.
I’m surrounded and requested to participate in the uber-liberal, all rights except mine count, government can do no wrong even as I SEE friends and family dropping dead and living a life of pain and suffering, and then I can’t take the petty, materialistic, ego-centric with statism and science as god, population anymore. On a near daily basis I feel like “they” have achieved a new low in my mind.
But I fight back against my own apathy, and I continue to focus on my health and self-reliance. Even this feels futile as I sit back and watch the controllers ready to take away my abilities to heal my family, or even grow the food to feed us, while pushing fake food – which is absolutely death – toxins disguised as medicines and benefits, and the other 95% of the population happily clueless as they force me to follow their insanity into destruction of body and soul.
But I do it anyway. And make plans for coping with growing healing herbs and food on the down low. Figure if pot growers have done it for decades after our insane prohibition started, that I can figure out how to do it for food and other herbs.
Anyway, thank you again Jim and commenters. Wisdom is gained every time I visit here, you have no idea how very much that means to me.
Admin.,
You really outdid yourself in this four part series, but an indepth refresher was needed. You have a right to be tired. Good work.
It is unbelieveable what a evil empire that the U.S. has become.
to paraphrase Chesterton: “men who believe in Nothing, will believe in Anything”. This empire, like all others of the past is falling into dust. I admire Admin’s struggle to bring some education to those who never received one. Root causes of collapse are many, and indeed can be compared cyclically to some empires of the past. Believe any ” turning” or Spengler or whatever latest explanation, you can find my explanation in the same book our founders turned to when they started this nation. When the USSA goes the way of the USSR, hope will be found in places outside the blue zones: for a bit more optimism, check out the map of “red” voting counties vs “blue” voting counties in the USSA available on the internet. Mob-ocracy has created the ultimate rural/ urban divide: tiny islands of blue surrounded by an ocean of red, overpopulated with zomboid vibrants and suicidal whites, who continue to move the death of “these united States” ever closer. Unfortunately for those lef-tards, guess where are all the second amendment defenders are located- and prepared to feed them some enlightening red pills if the SHTF.
Option #1 may be likely, there are many recent indications to such. These would include billionaires packing up and heading for New Zealand after the Davos Conference, also men like Ted Turner and GWB who don’t have to worry about wealth live on remote ranches. Why? A controlled conflagration resulting in a systematic culling of the masses may be the answer. But to say that resources have been exhausted and there is no hope is merely defeatist propaganda. Resource innovation has been stifled by government regulation, cartels, trade unions, “systems” of all kinds.
Consider Nicola Tesla, who had to fight the system of his day tooth and nail for decades just to get a vastly superior electrical generator built. Over 100 years ago, he realized that the earth was actually a natural electric generator and that the atmosphere could be used as a conduit to provide free electricity to the world. Unfortunately, his bank roller was J.P. Morgan himself, who quickly shut him down and practically ended his career to protect the profitable grid system in place. Would these ideas have been successful? We don’t know, because our masters don’t want us wandering off the plantation. Cell phones were invented in the 60’s but stifled by FCC regulations. Spaceflight too around the same time, but government control of it has prevented any innovation or economies of scale from developing. Soon they will begin heavy handed regulation of the internet, and all growth in this area will grind to a screeching halt due to the invisible barriers that will be erected.
So to those of you lamenting Option #1 of the turning, fine, but its not because there are no viable options. It’s because we aren’t allowed to even explore viable options.
Also there is no such thing as President’s Day, it’s Washington’s Birthday. May war criminal Abe Lincoln burn in hell.
Based on everything I have learned to date, I believe the average American outcome will be a blend of options #3 and #4, with some significant disasters and breakdowns in more vulnerable parts of the world. There are, believe it or not, still significant amounts of slack and systemic shock absorbers built into to the civilized world. The Human Race appears nowhere near the end of its rope. Neither do the financial system, the agricultural system, the healthcare system, the productive economic system, the ecosystem, the planet itself, etc. There is still an amazing stretch capacity left, even if we all have a sense that an important era is ending. Perhaps the best clue available to us is just how freaking long things have taken to devolve even this far. Wave Theory tells us that we are not in a final ending scenario, and I started believing that a couple of years ago. I am more convinced that ever.
I have come to believe that the most likely disaster That would result in a significant thinning of the herd would be a global epidemic unleashed amidst the chaos of regional wars. The scale and scope of such a contagion would largely determine the reset point for civilization. If Ebola or something like it ever goes airborne, there will be plenty of room and resources left to the survivors…
Shhhhhhhh…..
Hush, mesagoatherd, let him sleep. It’s hard work counting beans all day and then coming home and writing a magnum opus like this. He deserves the rest. Plenty of time to learn him about TARP another day
Half-honky is in da’ house. Gird your loins.
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A Worthless Piece of Paper
If our rights come from the government, not within, then they are not rights, but permission slips.
“If the terms and meaning of the Constitution could be changed by the secret whims of those in the executive branch into whose hands they have been reposed for safekeeping, of what value are they? No value. In such a world, our Constitution has become a worthless piece of paper.”
Andrew Napolitano
http://reason.com/archives/2015/02/12/has-our-constitution-become-a-worthless
Ash , what an amazingly appropriate name for our new Secretary of the Military Industrial complex now poised to usher in the Brave New Fourth Turning. Ashes to ashes..
http://www.ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2015/february/13/what-you-should-know-about-the-new-defense-secretary/
Carter appears to move easily between the higher echelons of the military and the business world.
From October 2011 to December 2013, he served as the Department of Defense’s Chief Operating Officer overseeing more than $600 billion per year. During the Bush administration, he was a member of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s International Security Advisory Board; co-chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s Policy Advisory Group; a consultant to the Defense Science Board; a member of the National Missile Defense White Team; and a member of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control.
When not working in a military capacity and doling out of billions, he has worked in the private sector for many of the firms that have benefited handsomely from the billions spent by the Defense Department.
He has served on the Boards of Directors of the MITRE Corporation, Mitretek Systems, MIT Lincoln Laboratory, and as a member of the Draper Laboratory corporation.
The MITRE Corporation manages Federally Funded Research and Development Centers supporting the Department of Defense, among other government agencies.
Mitretek Systems has focused, among other things, on national security threats, chemical and biological warfare and biometrics, (The organization has changed its name to Noblis.)
The MIT Lincoln Laboratory is a Department of Defense research and development center.
Draper works in the area of Air Warfare and ISR—Intelligence technology for targeting and target planning applications.
In addition to the board seats, Carter is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the Aspen Strategy Group.
Carter was recently a senior partner at the secretive Global Technology Partners. According to Source Watch: