In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. In Part 2 I will ponder possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy.
The nearly seven year reign of Barack Obama has resulted in furthering wealth inequality, in spite of his socialistic rhetoric. Notwithstanding his Nobel Peace Prize, military spending is at all-time highs and we are engaged in actual and proxy wars across the Middle East and in the Ukraine. Race relations have never been worse. Poverty levels have never been worse. Real median household income is lower than it was in 1989. Real hourly wages are at 50 year lows. Home ownership has plunged to 50 year lows, as middle class workers have been kicked out of their homes and young people are saddled with so much student loan debt and bleak job opportunities they will never have an opportunity to own. The ownership society pushed by Clinton and Bush, with the proliferation of Wall Street created “exotic” subprime mortgages, peddled to people incapable of paying their mortgages, blew up the world in 2008, and the fall out will last for decades.
Meanwhile, Wall Street banks have reaped $700 billion of ill-gotten profits since 2010 as the Federal Reserve has handed them trillions of interest free funds to gamble with, while rigging the financial markets, and paying their executives obscene bonuses. The hubris and arrogance of the Wall Street titans is appalling, as they buy politicians, write toothless financial regulations (Dodd Frank) for their bought off politicians to pass, report fraudulent financial results with the stamp of approval from the FASB, blatantly rig interest rate, currency, stock and commodities markets, and use deception and propaganda to distract and mislead the public through their corporate media mouthpieces – dependent upon Wall Street advertising revenue to thrive.
And still, Obama has not prosecuted one banker for the largest control fraud in world history, as he assumed the role of useful puppet to the vested financial interests. I’m sure he will be paid handsomely after he leaves office in 2017, just as Bill Clinton, Alan Greenspan, and Ben Bernanke have been richly rewarded by their Deep State benefactors for a job well done.
Illegal immigrants are pouring over our borders with encouragement from the Obama administration. Obamacare has proven to be a giveaway to health insurance conglomerates, hospital corporations, and drug companies, as insurance costs are driven higher, care deteriorates, and deficits soar ever higher. The welfare state has grown to immense proportions, with 46 million Americans remaining on food stamps, proving the reported unemployment rate of 5.1% to be a fraud. The labor participation rate of 62.6% is at levels last seen in 1977 and far below the 67.1% rate achieved from 1997 through 2000. The politicians and corporate media applaud $600 billion deficits as an achievement, while 10,000 Boomers turning 65 per day is guaranteed to drive future deficits back over $1 trillion per year.
Laurence Kotlikoff, economics professor at Boston University, reveals the truth about our true fiscal mess. Our unfunded liabilities are too damn big and our current deficits are a lie:
“I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. The government is 58% underfinanced. Social Security is 33% underfinanced. So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape. So, how much is America on the hook for in the future? If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion. That’s the fiscal gap. That’s our true debt.”
We now know for sure Barack Obama is not the Grey Champion of this Fourth Turning. He has only worsened the three core elements of this Crisis – debt, civic decay, and global disorder. Since his ascension to power, U.S. and global debt has expanded at an astounding rate never seen in world history. Class, race, political and cultural divides have grown to vast proportions. The world is exploding in violence, refugees flooding over borders, civil wars, proxy wars, riots, currency wars and economic depressions caused by U.S. military interventions and monetary policies.
The world is becoming increasingly chaotic and the American people are seeking a leader who can bring order, make tough decisions, and capture the zeitgeist of this moment in history. They are in search of a prophet generation (Boomer) Grey Champion, whose arrival marks the moment of darkness, adversity and peril as the Fourth Turning careens towards its climax. The Grey Champion doesn’t necessarily have to be a good person, but they must lead and display tremendous confidence in their cause and path. Franklin, Lincoln, and FDR have many detractors, but during their Fourth Turnings, they most certainly led, casting aside obstacles (sometimes illegally) and enduring dark days and bleak prospects for success. Is there someone of that stature ready to lead the American people now?
Gray Champion?
“Americans have always been blind to the next turning until after it fully arrives.
Most of today’s adult Americans grew up in a society whose citizens dreamed of perpetually improving outcomes: better jobs, fatter wallets, stronger government, finer culture, nicer families, smarter kids, all the usual fruits of progress. Today, deep into the Third Turning, these goals feel like they are slipping away. Many of us wish we could rewind time, but we know we can’t – and we fear for our children and grandchildren.
Many Americans wish that, somehow, they could bring back a saecular spring now. But seasons don’t work that way. As in nature, a saecular autumn can be warm or cool, long or short, but the leaves will surely fall. The saecular winter can hurry or wait, but history warns that it will surely be upon us.
We may not wish the Grey Champion to come again – but come he must, and come he will.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
When Strauss and Howe wrote these words eighteen years ago, halfway through the Unraveling, the American Dream was already turning into a nightmare. Perpetually improving outcomes have turned into a perpetually declining standard of living for most Americans. Fear for the futures of our children and grandchildren were warranted. Millennials have been lured into and enslaved by $1.3 trillion of student loan debt, left with limited job opportunities and low pay, priced out of the housing market, and handed a $200 trillion bill by their elders. Despite factual data showing that default rates on for-profit student loans were even three times as high as subprime mortgages in the early 2000s, the government took over the student loan market in 2009 and proceeded to dole out $500 billion (taxpayer money) in new debt over the next six years to anyone that could fog a mirror and scribble an X on a loan document.
The criminal enterprises known as for profit colleges such as: University of Phoenix, Corinthian, ITT Tech, Strayer, and Devry, have absconded with the money, provided dreadful education, graduated about 20% of enrollees, and left millions of suckers with billions of debt. With default rates now exceeding 50%, students are angry, demanding relief from their own stupidity. Hard working taxpayers who have struggled to put themselves and their kids through college are angry they will foot the bill for defaults that anyone with a high school diploma could see would happen. Trust in the government’s decision making process and motives have been rightfully shattered.
It is clear the Obama administration purposely enslaved young people in debt to artificially lower the unemployment rate for political purposes. The issuance of colossal amounts of subprime auto loan debt (begun by Ally Financial when it was owned by the Federal government) has also been politically motivated to artificially increase GDP figures and pump up the financial results of the US automakers (GM, Chrysler) saved with taxpayer funds in 2009. There are no free markets left. Everything is manipulated for a political reason or to benefit a particular constituent. The average American pays the price, while the connected .1% are further enriched.
When young people protested against the true enemies of the people on Wall Street in 2011, they were maced, beaten, tear gassed, trampled by horses and imprisoned by the enforcers of the surveillance police state. The working middle class has seen their real wages stagnate for the last 50 years, as the dollar was unpegged from gold, politicians were free to run up the national debt with no short term consequences, and citizens were turned into consumers through media propaganda, the peddling of debt by Wall Street, and the complete and utter failure of our educational system.
While working class Americans have seen no advancement in their real wages in almost a half century, the cost of their food, energy, education, healthcare, housing, and taxes have risen astronomically. It is no coincidence the Wall Street bankers stepped in to offer prodigious levels of consumer debt in the form of credit card, mortgage and auto loans to allow Americans to pretend their standard of living hasn’t fallen. Excessive levels of debt leads to excessive profits for the moneyed interests. The last 35 years have been a grand national delusion.
Trust in the economic system, financial markets, political parties, mainstream media, and generational social contract has been destroyed. Rampant irresponsible fraud, abuse, deception, and deceit by the moneyed interests, lackey politicians, their government apparatchiks, media mouthpieces, and legal system have shattered the illusion the establishment is looking out for your best interests. The revelations by Edward Snowden of illegal mass surveillance, militarization of local police forces, military exercises in US cities, attempts to roll back the 2nd Amendment, and trying to control the internet has revealed the true nature of the corporate fascist state. The disintegration of trust began slowly after 9/11 but accelerated rapidly over the last three years. Our leaders have done the exact opposite of what needed to be done after 2008. Everything they have implemented has failed. The average American is worse off than they were in 2009 at the depths of the recession.
The highly educated, white collar, sociopath masters of the universe have captured the levers of power in this country. The world is enthralled and mesmerized by a gray haired academic troll-like figure who will ascend her monetary throne and pronounce whether her and her fellow central bank lackeys will raise an obscure inconsequential interest rate from 0% to .25%. This is nothing but a meaningless diversion as her owners (Wall Street banks), their corporate brethren, captured politicians, pliable judiciary, and media mouthpieces rig the financial markets to enrich themselves while impoverishing the masses and drowning current and future generations in un-payable debt. Harry Markopolos, who uncovered Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme, while the SEC and criminal co-conspirator Wall Street bankers willfully ignored the blatant easily identifiable fraud, captures the essence of why trust in our economic, financial, regulatory, political, judicial and journalistic systems has collapsed:
“Government has coddled, accepted, and ignored white collar crime for too long. It is time the nation woke up and realized that it’s not the armed robbers or drug dealers who cause the most economic harm, it’s the white collar criminals living in the most expensive homes who have the most impressive resumes who harm us the most. They steal our pensions, bankrupt our companies, and destroy thousands of jobs, ruining countless lives.” – Harry Markopolos, Congressional Testimony
The men who retain the levers of power are the same men who were in command when the Crisis struck in 2008. They are even more powerful and rich today than prior to the financial collapse provoked by their unbridled greed and avarice. They believed they could engineer a recovery by promoting confidence in the Wall Street banks through the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt to solve a crisis caused by too much debt. Total debt outstanding in the U.S. rose from $52 trillion in 2009 to $59 trillion today, at the behest of the government and their Federal Reserve cohorts.
While rational thinking Americans have continued to pay down their mortgage debt and reduce credit card usage, the Federal government through their insolvent (if using mark to market accounting) entities Fannie and Freddie, along with their monopoly on student loan issuance, and their massive deficit spending, have accounted for more than 100% of the $7 trillion increase. Total global debt approaches $230 trillion, up approximately $70 trillion since the crisis began.
The mood change in the country is palpable as economic misery besets the middle class; race wars break out in urban ghettos across the land; push back against the police state intensifies; distrust of a rigged financial system keeps people out of the market; young people are priced out of the housing market by Wall Street price manipulation; productive good paying jobs dwindle; government bureaucrats prove themselves inept at everything they attempt; illegal immigrants pour over the southern border overwhelming the social safety net when it is already stretched thin; and faith in both political parties is close to zero. The regeneracy has been delayed, but this has allowed the anger, bitterness, and dismay with the government to grow to staggering proportions. The country is growing desperate for someone to lead. Ignoring the debt, civic decay and global disorder is no longer acceptable. It’s time for someone to step forward and tell the people the truth.
“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Where leaders had once been inclined to alleviate societal pressures, they will now aggravate them to command the nation’s attention. The regeneracy will be solidly under way.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe – 1997
The Grey Champion is likely to be elevated through an election, but it isn’t a requirement. Ben Franklin and Samuel Adams were the intellectual and firebrand Grey Champions of the American Revolution. They inspired the revolutionaries through writings and oratory. Lincoln and FDR were elected Grey Champions, but Lincoln only won 40% of the popular vote in a four way race, while FDR won in a landslide with 57% of the vote over Hoover. It was clear Lincoln didn’t have a mandate, as Southern states began seceding after his election. No one can argue Franklin, Adams, Lincoln or FDR united everyone in a common cause. They actually aggravated the societal pressures that had been ignored or deferred by their predecessors. Compromise was not an option for these men. They were going to lead based upon their own criteria. You were either with them or against them. And many were against them.
It is widely believed only 20% of colonial Americans were strong supporters of the American Revolution, with 20% Loyalists, and the rest sitting on the fence. Franklin’s own son remained a Loyalist throughout the fight. Half the country departed the Union upon Lincoln’s election and his support in the North was lukewarm at best. Lincoln captured 55% of the vote in the 1864 election, with only northern states voting. Even though FDR won landslide popular vote victories in 1932 and 1936, his detractors and enemies were many. FDR’s confiscation of gold and antagonism toward big business convinced a number of wealthy businessmen to approach General Smedley Butler to lead a coup against FDR and install a fascist regime to run the country. So, it is clear Grey Champions are not universally loved or supported. They have the ability to ignore the complexity of life and focus on one simple imperative: society must prevail.
Until three months ago the 2016 presidential election was in control of the establishment. The Party was putting forth their chosen crony capitalist figureheads – Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton. They are hand-picked known controllable entities who will not upset the existing corrupt system. They are equally acceptable to Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve, the military industrial complex, the sickcare industry, mega-corporate America, the moneyed interests, and the never changing government apparatchiks. The one party system is designed to give the appearance of choice, while in reality there is no difference between the policies of the two heads of one party and their candidate products. But now Donald Trump has stormed onto the scene from the reality TV world to tell the establishment – You’re Fired!!!
As Hillary’s crimes and lies catch up to her and Jeb Bush drowns in a sea of irrelevance, low energy, and passionless rhetoric, Trump and Bernie Sanders have surged ahead in the polls. The country is tired of the Clinton and Bush dynasties. They are tired of the existing ruling authority. My initial reaction to Trump’s entering the presidential race was scorn. He’s a bloviating, egocentric, self-promoting, reality TV parody of himself. After seeing him in action for the last three months it has become apparent the country deserves a president like Trump.
He represents everything we’ve become as a nation. Sound bites, no substance, self-involved, boastful, and in constant attack mode are the qualities necessary to lead America today. Facebook twitter nation merits a president like Trump. Bill Clinton playing sax on Arsenio and Obama’s weekly guest appearances on the Daily Show or Jimmy Fallon Show has already tainted and made a mockery of the office of the president.
Trump was born in 1946 putting him in the Boomer Prophet generation, so he fits the mold of Grey Champion from a generational perspective. Hillary and Jeb are also Boomers, with Sanders from the Silent generation. Trump has struck a nerve with a wide swath of middle class America with his anti-illegal immigration rhetoric, disdain for the elitist mainstream media, unflinching assessment of his second string GOP opponents, and exuberant confidence in his own abilities.
Building a wall on our southern border, going after billionaire hedge fund managers, cutting government spending, and negotiating trade deals that don’t ship American jobs overseas, are resonating with fed up households across America. Some polls show Trump with significant support among blacks and Hispanics. The linear thinking supporters of the status quo are flabbergasted and outraged by Trump’s popularity. The ruling classes never anticipate the mood shift of the peasants as they look down on the masses from their gated estates and penthouse suites. The country is looking for someone who can tear down the entire fetid, corrupt, rotting structure.
The moneyed interests are still betting on Hillary or Jeb, but they are getting nervous. There is still time for them to pull the old Ross Perot play by threatening Trump or his family with harm or making him an offer he can’t refuse in financial terms. But, with the Middle East awash in blood, refugees flooding into Europe, China experiencing an epic meltdown, oil producing countries suffering depressions, emerging market economic systems collapsing under the weight of unpayable promises, the Federal Reserve panicked as recession approaches with interest rates at zero bound, and stock, bond and real estate bubbles approaching the inescapable pin, the stars are aligning for a 2nd crisis more perilous and catastrophic than the 2008 catalyst event. The onset of phase two of this Crisis in 2016 will produce a populace more desperate, less trusting of the establishment and likely to turn towards someone like Trump, in despair.
No matter who is elected in November 2016, there is no turning back. Winter is here and Spring is many years away. Grim times will befall the world. The potential for tragic consequences is growing by the day. The storm clouds are gathering on the horizon. There will certainly be famine, chaos, death, destruction, and war. Let’s pray our Grey Champion can lead us through the valley of death to a new High.
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
In Part 3 I will try to assess which channels of distress are likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and lastly make some educated guesses about potential climaxes.
Here’s where I think we’re headed. We muddle through the rest of obama. A rising sense of hope and urgency keeps people from getting too down. A landslide election sets a clear course, rebuild our country. And so we unleash another 20 year run of prosperity, and for most of us, that will take us to the house. The rest of the world, meh.
One other thing. My analogy of a toilet full of sewage that could be flushed away in an instant. I was referring to our political problems. An even bigger opportunity exists in mainstream media. Somebody is going to fill the truth telling vacuum. Ideology or not. The commercial rewards are just too great to ignore. You heard it here first.
Jim, when I seem dismissive of strauss & howe, ron paul, etc., not the case. To use the football analogy again, brett favre was great, but he’s not the guy today, rodgers is. That’s why you have 3rd down backs, someone fresh to stick his head in the hole. Strauss, howe, paul,bbuchanan, these guys are giants, but now other guys need to stand on their shoulders and hit the hole.
Vast majority of Americans can hardly afford to buy gas to get to work all week (for the one’s who still have a job), yet we see hundreds of thousands of migrants with tickets to travel from one part of the world to another. Who is paying for this migration of people? And in most of the pics I have seen of migrants walking along roadsides, they are clad in brand new clothing.
Has anyone else noticed this besides me?
I’ll probably take some flak for this, but here goes:
Liquidity, or the ability to meet short-term cash flow requirements, works right up until solvency is demanded.
In the derivatives markets, liquidity can meet covenants that are tripped wherein payment (a penalty of a sort) is contractually required. But when markets accelerate the amount due in-full under clauses that allow them to do so, that’s when solvency becomes an issue, as it did with Lehman Brothers in 2008 (actually, Bear Stearns, which was leveraged at 35:1 when it imploded. THIS was the wake up call few heeded, as it was the event that led to the 2008 “Great Recession.”). By comparison, in a very real sense, sovereign debt will be the next “subprime.”
When, not if, but when circumstances enable derivatives investors to begin demanding payment-in-full, that’s when liquidity reaches it’s limitation and solvency comes into question – the US has the Fed, the EU has its ECB, but neither could fund the bailout of a Spain or Italy. How fast would the USD or Euro be hit in market value if they were even remotely capable of doing this? How fast in turn would currency swaps be triggered as a result? Sovereign debt derivatives have the potential to wreak havoc on world markets, exacerbated by “bond vigilantes,” massive hedge funds that bet against a debt problem and accelerate it downward (driving up the rates required to issue it).
Almost all economies, certainly the major ones, in way or another, are inextricably linked via the derivatives markets (currency swaps being the easiest example).
The world’s major economies are like heavily-laden boats in bad seas; in this instance the cargo is government debt obligations. All it will take are a series of progressively worsening storms, some at first glance not so severe, and at some point boats will start taking on water. There will be an inflection point, wherein all the liquidity in the world won’t solve this problem because that same liquidity will simply manifest out of newly-issued debt, which win turn will only drive the boats’ gunwales deeper into the water. It’s a self-reinforcing, negative feedback loop. As that happens, contractual covenants allowing payment-in-full will be triggered (e.g., when debt-to-income exceeds predetermined levels), and its game over.
The next crisis is probably not on anyone’s radar at the moment – there are just too many things that could go wrong to say any specific one will be it. The reality, however, is that by having produced so much debt, and potentially magnified its impact with derivatives, in some cases multiples of times over, the threat of default rises dramatically, as does the probability.
The US is not going to simply extract itself from the world stage and begin, “A New Day.” It’s the ultimate in hubris for some political contenders to claim this, and even more naive to believe it. Assuming this will be the case will only make the effects of a worldwide downturn that much harder to endure, and to solve.
There are no simple answers. It doesn’t matter how “smart” anyone claims to be, a day of debt reckoning is coming, and probably sooner rather than later.
The only honest question is how prepared, or unprepared, will we be to handle it?
Backtable, it depends on how and what you consider that the financial system represents. Is it the grease that keeps the actual economy functioning, or is it the actual economy itself? I tend to believe it’s the former. The excess (the latter) is in for a world of hurt, as the unpayable will not be paid. Doesn’t bother me a bit. I don’t consider debt destruction the collapse of the economy.
@Backtable… there may be flak, but not from me. I agree with you. Somehow TPTB have convinced the world that as long as they continue to pump liquidity into the system, the system is just fine. The reason it is NOT fine should be obvious to people as they go about their merry way purchasing cans of processed food grown who knows where in what kind of chemical laden soil and paying $1 per can for what my mother bought ten cans for a dollar thirty years ago. And paying $5 per lb for a pot roast that is beautifully red on its face only to discover a strange hue inside the unwashed meat inside should you decide to cut it prior to cooking.
Actions eventually have consequences. You can forestall them for a time and a half, but eventually, the bill comes due.
What economy do you anticipate we will have? One like we have today, functioning smoothly, no real bumps in the road as we wipe away nearly $20 trillion in national debt? My point is that politicians tell people what they want to hear, mainly the id-driven hope, “We can have it all with no pain!”
There will be substantial pain. You don’t threaten China with 20-30% trade tariffs and get away with it unscathed. Not when they hold a sizable amount of your debt. You don’t enact currency policies that crush emerging market economies without the potential for some serious fallout.
You can’t make America an overnight net-exporter with a strong dollar, nor can you remove the nation from the rest of the world economy and remain the world’s reserve currency.
We want it both ways and it simply doesn’t work like that – not without massive sacrifices, and this is precisely what no politician will ever, at least to date, tell the American people. You can’t run massive deficits and expect to be able to fund the entitlement programs unfurling into the future. Hell, you can’t do it now and continue to run the country, period.
Again, I don’t doubt America has the capacity to be great, I’m simply saying that believing it’s going to happen without real, and in some cases tough, sacrifices is extremely naive. Disappointment, often rising to anger, stems from having unmet expectations and this is why it is critical to clarify at the outset not only “the what” but “the how” in fulfilling them. Otherwise assumptions are made and the reality can be far, far different than anticipated.
5 paragraphs. One at a time. First. What kind of economy? One based on production, not fantasy. Second. Fuck china. we can monetize our debt to them in seconds with the push of a fed button. Without our trade deficit, they are toast, not us. Third. Didn’t make any of those arguements. In fact, make opposite points.
Fourth, who’s we? The people who expect their paper portfolio or massive pension promise to allow them to retire at 50 and live like kings are going to get crushed. So what? They won’t starve. Their disappointment isn’t my problem. They better get ready to work. Fifth. RIght on
1. “One based on production, not fantasy.”
Domestic or export consumption? If domestic, you really think we’re going to put the 94 million out-of-work people we have now back on the payroll selling stuff to one another?
If foreign, explain how the strongest currency remains so and is still able to generate enough sales to sustain those domestic industries?
If by production you mean “making things,” the one word, “automation.”
2. “Fuck China.”
Yeah, that’ll have absolutely no reverberations, anywhere.
3. How many more “opposite points” do you want?
We don’t get from point A to Nirvana without REAL pain. The world doesn’t write off the debt its carrying with the fallout hitting everyone, almost everywhere.
In your previous entry, you wrote:
“The excess (the latter) is in for a world of hurt, as the unpayable will not be paid. Doesn’t bother me a bit. I don’t consider debt destruction the collapse of the economy.”
That unpayable debt? That’s an opposite side’s asset. And yes, they do care. They have enough power and the willingness to use it that if pushed hard enough they would. The costs would be high for all involved and they undoubtedly wouldn’t prevail, but there’d be a serious struggle, nonetheless. It’s easy to dismiss it all with the swipe of hand as if to imply there are no real difficulties involved, but there would be.
I envision an ending that involves more local production, greater local control, and a better way of life for everyone in this country, I just don’t expect it to unfold without some seriously trying times along the way. And being told to believe otherwise? I’ll stick with what I believe in, what the past has shown, and what those in power are doing (which veers from nothing to making matters worse).
You and your export obsession. I don’t give a fuck about the global economy. It’s a failed experiment the way it is currently being run. There is a huge difference between gross and net. Our trade deficits mean we have ZERO net. In fact we have the opposite. A DEFICIT.Stop wetting your pants about reverbarations. Let china worry about china.
Naw, you’re right.
Thanks for schooling me on this.
I’m obviously in way over my head here on TBP…and feeling relieved there’s nothing to worry about.
There’s plenty to worry about. We are all in over our heads, in the search for truth, that’s why we’re here in jim’s world. Your last paragraph is is spot on, that’s exactly how I see it. Globalization has been dogmatic for 25 years. I don’t want to bleed a half trillion dollars to prop up china.
Rich writes:
“Money flows from the bottom to the top, and while the bottom is getting much larger and much poorer, the top is getting smaller and far wealthier. So how we doing in this present economy? It all depends on who the “we” are.”
So easy to restate the old Marxian adage, and so wrong still.
There is little to nothing on the bottom to flow to the top, you don’t fill a water tank from a dry river.
Yes, it’s coming from somewhere, but that’s the middle not the bottom
It’ that middle that’s descending as the flow continues, but they’re not of the bottom.
The bottom is actually the fail-safe for all this: they greedily lap up the bread-crumbs tossed their way by the siphoning class, and help keep them in power
That’s what makes democracy such a useful scheme:
The leeches guarantee a voting majority that will keep them in power.
None of this new, the main difference is that today’s helots don’t even know they’re enslaved.
And this goes to show how tired and trite Sanders is:
his criticism falls exactly in the same vein, coming from his out-data proto-communist thinking.
And flak all you want: he is of the class that put this crap out there within the last 200 years.
The United States for all practical purposes is bankrupt at this very moment and has been for years now. The U.S. Equity Markets are rigged and manipulated and have been since at least the creation of the plunge protection team post 1987 crash, but yet the game continues. The question is why? The answer is –> modern accounting principles do not apply, not even in the least. To even attempt to discuss our current fiscal modality using accounting terminology is naive at best, bordering on insanity at worst.
There’s a Global power structure in place that manipulates markets and ALL mediums of exchange including precious metals. This power structure has bought and paid for politicians, media outlets, and has the ability to pull the strings on the most powerful military standing on this planet. Pay attention to this next sentence it’s the key!! In order for a different outcome to manifest the variables in the equation must change and only WAR will change those variables. They can print money to move markets, they can manipulate global assets to move foreign Governments, this power structure will Rule until it doesn’t. You will have plenty of warning when “The Crash” is imminent, World War 3 will be playing outside your window.
There it is, absolutely free of charge, a prophetic road map to the future which time will prove to be precisely accurate, if you have ears, then hear, if you have reason, then understand. Dont sit in your suburban neighborhood buy a few ounces of gold and tell yourself everything will work out, the wisdom of the next generation will rise to meet the occasion, you may end up confused and very disappointed. But, “People believe what they need to believe when they need to believe it” unknown.
Trump ain’t no Grey Champion. WHY did he sign the RNC Loyalty Pledge?
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The Beginning of the End for Trump? The Donald Signs RNC Loyalty Pledge
Hated insurgent Donald Trump has finally bowed to pressure and signed off on the Stalinist loyalty oath concocted by the Republican party establishment. The pledge was delivered to him by RNC boss Reince Priebus who was under mounting pressure by the big money donors to bring the bombastic billionaire outsider to heel. How the pledge will affect the Donald’s lead in the polls and whether it will give the green light for the entire stable of establishment candidates to go for his throat has yet to be seen. However, to those who ardently supported him due to his independent status, the agreement to not run as a third-party candidate and support the nominee – effectively surrendering his leverage –there has to be more than a bit of a feeling of betrayal.
Trump’s acceptance of the new rules of engagement are reported by CNN in the story “Donald Trump signs RNC loyalty pledge”:
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Donald Trump has signed the pledge.
The Republican presidential front-runner met privately with Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus Thursday afternoon, and soon after, came out to the lobby of Trump Tower to declare that he has signed a loyalty pledge. This means Trump has promised to support the party’s eventual nominee — whoever that may be — and that he will not run as a third-party candidate.
“The best way for the Republicans to win is if I win the nomination and go directly against whoever they happen to put up. And for that reason, I have signed the pledge,” Trump said, holding up the paper. “So I will be totally pledging my allegiance to the Republican Party and for the conservative principles for which it stands.”
He added: “We will go out and fight hard, and we will win.”
All 17 Republican presidential candidates have now pledged to support the GOP’s eventual presidential nominee, Priebus announced Thursday evening in a statement, billing it as a sign of “party unity.”
But if Trump’s official declaration of allegiance to the party serves to calm the nerves of establishment Republicans — at least for now — it could also invite backlash from some of the bombastic candidate’s die-hard supporters.
Trump has propelled himself to the top of the polls by casting himself as an anti-establishment, outsider candidate, railing against career politicians and the Washington political class.
Signing an RNC pledge complicates that image.
———-
The enthusiasm that Trump brought to a large segment of the party base struck mortal terror into the hearts of Priebus and the elite who much like the Democrats with Queen Hillary had already decided on their 2016 standard bearer “Jeb!”. Now a lot of those folks are naturally going to feel that they have been sold out again with the memory of the Boehner-McConnell backstabbing of November 2014 still fresh in their minds. While the Trump public relations team talked it up as a victory it may soon prove to the moment when the wave crested and then began to recede as the establishment has reasserted control over the process.
http://carryingaflag.blogspot.com/
Didn’t bother anyone, stuck. That was last weeks failed prediction. Next
Trump’s not even close to being done, Mother Fuckers been winning his whole life. I’m backing him now, I’m sure that will be enough to propel him straight in to the White House. Now, how he plans to eradicate the ghetto stigma left behind by the previous occupants is another matter. He may have to burn the bitch to the ground and rebuild. Hell, that’s what he do, build it back with opulence. He’ll stamp a big gold TRUMP on the front of that fucker. Side Note: I bet the First Lady will be a knock out, none of this ugly shit we embarrassingly have to watch parade across our TB screens. I’m ready we need a new Don!!!
Trump is the Gloden Champion. Trump reads The Burning Platform so be careful how you talk about the last President. Stuceeeeeeeeeeeee
Trump will be the perfect exclamation point in history, a testament to the hubris of excess. FUCK IT, let’s party, for tomorrow the bankers gonna call the note !!!!!!!
flash says: Gut wrenching , but excellent read admin. Makes me sick to witness Western civilization being destroyed by global corporatism all for the sake of their insatiable greed and bestial power mongering.
Living with Dementia must be a bitch Flash! Gut Wrenching, really? You’ve been reading this blog for years and this article woke you the fuck up? There’s some seriously fucked up shit going on between those satellite dishes strapped to the sides of your head. Go to your doctor and request to be placed on Aricept immediately it may buy you a little time before a stranger starts wiping your ass for you.
My work here is done! Time to make a ricker store run
Excessive wealth is like a warehouse full of bread sitting there molding and rotting.
On the Trump loyalty oath, could turn out to be a brilliant tactical maneuver, as it puts him in a position to ask the other candidates to pledge to support *him* if he wins the primaries, or even leads in the polls against the Democrat front-runner.
I’m starting to believe that Trump could well be the next president, which worries me in this respect: what happens if there’s a Fourth Turning crisis and no resolution? I can see Trump doing some popular things, like deporting a bunch of Hispanics and modifying some trade treaties, while the banksters and the corps and the MIC remain firmly in charge. Providing the illusion of normalcy while the country continues being driven into the ground.
Bea, I suspect you’re right, we’re being had — again.
AnarchoPagan says: what happens if there’s a Fourth Turning crisis and no resolution?
I never made to the liquor store yet. I’ve stopped at my very most favorite Mexican restaurant and BAR! When I walk through the door it’s all smiles and someone runs to get me a half gallon margarita with a couple extra shots of Chinaco Reposado Tequila, why because on occasion I tip everyone in the house, and always tip my server to extreme, money talks bullshit walks. So much for that now to …..admin
Admin, I’ve never called Admin by his first name like other dumbasses do that don’t know him anymore than I do, I see from the above comment your schooling and educational endeavors are paying off! LMFAO, God Fucking Damn, really? Oh how I miss the old days! When the big dogs kicked ass! And you were worried about keeping us on the net, damn near quit a couple times if I member, right! Avalon the most high princess of the burning lands has pulled you ass off me more than once, she’s the glue that’s made this place work, without her there would be no TBP! Oh how I long for the old times, these Newbies have no idea how ruff this place was or the hard work that’s brought us here!!
Thank you for spinning your wheels straight into the fucking ground with zero hope of forward motion, God Damn that’s true dedication rarely seen today! Most people quit beating a dead horse once the stench sets in, not you, it’s forward to victory, educating people like AnarchoPagan. It’s working, Flash finally caught a vision today, outfuckingstanding!
Enter Billahs Wife stage left, LMAO
Sensetti
Why do I have a feeling your comments will be getting more entertaining as the night goes on? Avalon loves her margaritas too.
Your elaborations on “Fourth Turning” are top notch, insightful, enjoyable reading. Ever thought of putting them together in a book?
Sounds like Sensetti buys friends. Nice. Me, I get a dog. They never demand to be tipped. Just a bowl of kibbles will keep them happy, and they will love you for life.
The greatest distraction, deception, division tactic is war. Certainly for those in charge war is very lucrative and beneficial, on all accounts, for all their agendas, and from all angles.
But on the Internet blogs of today, the attention is more on the sign posts which might reveal which SHTF prediction is more on track. Beyond the blogs, I see war increasing. Does it really matter which SHTF prediction comes to pass? Isn’t a SHTF situation a very personal and local thing? Didn’t the SHTF already in Syria? Can the middle class get off the grid fast enough? Can they avoid the attacks from many sides as they try and maintain some semblance of prosperity and freedom? Freedom only works as a verb and the middle class is a very short running experiment in light of all modern history. The current modern world we live in today is a very new thing itself, having been mostly formed over the last half century only. Some soon to arrive collapse as part of, or not as part of the 4th turning, either way, is unlikely to turn over the apple cart enough to really change the existing pecking order.
On top of the pecking order, at least here in the material world today, those in charge of the various pieces will continue to use the three “D”s. Stop using their money and cut them out of the picture is a simple solution which is only short of impossible to implement. So war will continue to be a big part of their tool mix and even WWIII may need to be trotted out. Can the destruction of the middle class be avoided, or will they become something a bit different? When will the workers of the world accept war as the solution? After all, a war economy is better than no economy. Throughout all of history, war has been a major factor. If you lump in large scale ‘police action’ events and global crime syndicate activities then most of history has taken direction from the outcomes of an age old struggle between violence and love. Will today’s modern world be an exception?
Maybe we’ve been looking at the wrong sign posts. Maybe who becomes the next leader of the free world doesn’t even matter now. The framing of all debates and all topics is quite controlled now. Most believe now that the ends justify the means. Everyone is now looking for someone they can trust. They’re looking for a doctor, a financial advisor, a world leader which they can trust who will solve their problems and the worlds. The so called free, middle class, working people today believe they can find trust in their fellow man, it’s just a matter of who – maybe that’s the sign post we should be most concerned about?
..must be the past habanero level butt burn being refocused by the likker wisdom that’s got Sensetti’s philosophical juices flowing..I don’t mind though. He”l somber up in the morning and be the old gullible albeit lovable Republican dupe he always was..May God bless him in that he can’t find his keys.
BTW, Sensetti, I gave you a thumbs up .Thanks for noticing I’ve awoken…just to think I almost voted for George Bush makes me shudder.
AP- When in history have we not been taken to the cleaners? TPTB’s motto is “Never Let Them See It Coming”. They will bend us over and drive us to Newark and it will all be over but the crying.
Please don’t worry about TPTB fuknuts not being able to straighten out their messes, they write the script and they could just kill off most of everybody and be done with it or declare a Jubilee and we all dance in the streets, who knows? Mostly we are moving into a new stage with a new script and there will be things of great wonder and entertainment….like the alien invasion. So, stock up on booze and popcorn and I urge you to keep a diary or journal for your grandchildren and their children. We are going to live in the MOST INTERESTING times and as I have posted before the lull between leaves us feeling like we are at the top of the BIG hill on the wild roller coaster ride.
Administrator says:
Sensetti
Why do I have a feeling your comments will be getting more entertaining as the night goes on? Avalon loves her margaritas too.
No, my girl friend shut me down for the night. “Have you been drinking” absolutely not baby, you know I’ve got a couple deals cooking, I’ve been on the computer working all day! “You smell like beer” no baby… Well… maybe I did have ONE at lunch! You old timers have seen her pic, she makes Donald Trumps women look like crack whores. Why she hangs with me is a mystery.
Flash you have been a Republican since Abe turned the niggers loose! Don’t you even try to convince the newbies you did not campaign for George Bush! Acting all neutral and shit, fuck me dead.
Admin posed a question – could the Grey Champion be a general? Many of you are familiar with Colim Powell’s contest for his staff officers back a quarter-century ago, where they competed to produce the best paper. One winner was titled, “Origins of the Military Coup of 2012.” Make it 2017 after Trump gets in and cannot work with Congress, or if Sanders gets in and gets serious about scaling back military commitments & spending, or if one of the usual suspects gets in and cannot handle the fast-moving crisis that engulfs us and the thesis – gridlock and paralysis put America’s existence sufficiently at risk to warrant a coup – look prophetic. Rome was saved by her ‘Barracks Emperors’ in the Third Century and one could argue that we have so centralized power that we have a de facto ‘Presidential Republic’ already, making seizure of one office much more likely to lead to autocracy than when we had a strong system of checks and balances, etc.
However, we might still be surprised by a politico seeing the light and stepping up; FDR’s nickname before his Presidency as, ‘The Feather Duster,’ because he was seen as a lightweight who stirred things up every time he discovered a new ’cause,’ but who never actually accomplished much. Crises can amke heroes out of the most unlikely material.
Link to paper: http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/2010winter/Dunlap_Jr.pdf
Re: Sensetti @ 12:46 p.m.
Early on, Nick and I determined that “hedging” our stores of metals and ammo with a few precious liquids that could be purchased on sale at the Class VI store on the military base with a discount for purchase by the case was a good idea. Carrying them across the Oklahoma/Missouri State line was somewhat worrisome for a few years, but once in place, they are as precious as gold.
I’m not gonna argue with you old timers here on TBP… I am far too new here to understand the game you all have studied. However, if you think we are not prepared for what is coming?
Our neighbors are happy to see us here. And that is all we could ever hope for.
Hey Flash, are you still on the Donald Trump bandwagon? You have been kinda quiet lately about that subject.
Maggie #1 who the hell is nick? Is he going to be a problem should our relationship progress? According to my world ammo is the absolute very best store of wealth, unless you’re like a few that post here and you’re wealthy, Gold is a fools game but I have a little, junk silver is cool I have some . Me…. My ability to move to a high mountain retreat with my horse’s is my greatest asset. Maggie are you beyond child bearing years?
Bea L have you not been paying attention? Flash is so God Damn old he can’t remember who he is or what he represented in days gone by. Hell yes he’s a Donald Trump fan, as he was was George Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and dangerous Dick Cheney fan. Flash blows in the wind with no sure direction. He attacks Sensetti saying he’s not a son of the South ignoring the fact all his Grandfather’s are buried in Confederate Soil. And Sensetti was born and will most likely die on ground claimed by sons of the Confederate States. I live and die the Southern way of life, best damn thing I’ve got going for me. I pray Flash returns to his home of his ancestors.
Note: To all you newbies Flash is a solid Son of the South, born and fucking raised. He likes to pick on me because my father moved us to Colorado when I was in third grade and it took me 20 plus years to get back home!
Maggie run little nick off……..Don’t take away my heaven!
A lot of ammo on top a high mountain retreat works in a lot of SHTF scenarios.
Helicopter gunships, a large scale war and a new police state might be a bit of a problem though. What’s your plan under that kind of SHTF situation?
BL and Sensitti , et al… I support the Trump message not the man…and yes, I was the first on TBP much to the chagrin of the Cuck party faithful and others who will argue with a stump for no obvious purpose, to declare Trump will be the catalyst in deconstructing the Rainbow Republican brand.
Trump is the middle class finger to Republican establishment. And that is the message.
Do you see now?
And for the newbies, going all the way back to the Raging Debate.I was one of the few that bashed the Republican brand for the traitorous warmongering corporatist party they are. I posited on the stupid of those who supported the Bush family of globalist pwnd wax moths and took the first verbal shots at Chris Christie and Elizabeth Warren for being wax moths too.
Also , I was one of the first to decry Lincoln as savior of the Union. He was not. And, FWIW, I did support Reagan, but he was a a Democrat in transition.we all know how that worked out..Global war on everything..from drugs, to oil , to freedom, all at great increase in national debt. Drug warriors made out OK though.
So I over the years have entertained the ideologies of both left and right and thus though active study have arrived at the destination of National Libertarianism which defines freedom as the right of association and ownership of self. For more on this see Hans Herman Hoppe.
So in affect my big L libertarianism has been fire-blasted by reality into what is becoming a bud of what is being called on the netz as National Libertarianism , which described in few words means “get the fuck off my porch” ..yeah I’m old and with such comes maybe not brilliance but the experience of seeing firsthand what works and what doesn’t. I like to think of this knowledge as wisdom. but it can also considered mere commonsense , which we all know isn’t so common anymore.
On Free Immigration and Forced Integration
By Hans-Hermann Hoppe
For the purpose of illustration, let us first assume an anarcho-capitalist society. Though convinced that such a society is the only social order that can be defended as just, I do not want to explain here why this is the case. Instead, I will employ it as a conceptual benchmark, because this will help clear up the fundamental misconception of most contemporary free immigration advocates.
All land is privately owned, including all streets, rivers, airports, harbors, etc. With respect to some pieces of land, the property title may be unrestricted; that is, the owner is permitted to do with his property whatever he pleases as long as he does not physically damage the property owned by others. With respect to other territories, the property title may be more or less severely restricted. As is currently the case in some housing developments, the owner may be bound by contractual limitations on what he can do with his property (voluntary zoning), which might include residential vs. commercial use, no buildings more than four stories high, no sale or rent to Jews, Germans, Catholics, homosexuals, Haitians, families with or without children, or smokers, for example.
Clearly, under this scenario there exists no such thing as freedom of immigration. Rather, there exists the freedom of many independent private property owners to admit or exclude others from their own property in accordance with their own unrestricted or restricted property titles. Admission to some territories might be easy, while to others it might be nearly impossible. In any case, however, admission to the property of the admitting person does not imply a “freedom to move around,” unless other property owners consent to such movements. There will be as much immigration or non-immigration, inclusivity or exclusivity, desegregation or segregation, non-discrimination or discrimination based on racial, ethnic, linguistic, religious, cultural or whatever other grounds as individual owners or associations of individual owners allow.
Note that none of this, not even the most exclusive form of segregationism, has anything to do with a rejection of free trade and the adoption of protectionism. From the fact that one does not want to associate with or live in the neighborhood of Blacks, Turks, Catholics or Hindus, etc., it does not follow that one does not want to trade with them from a distance. To the contrary, it is precisely the absolute voluntariness of human association and separation – the absence of any form of forced integration – that makes peaceful relationships – free trade – between culturally, racially, ethnically, or religiously distinct people possible.
Maybe this will help explain National Libertarianism better than I.
http://ex-army.blogspot.com/2014/07/libertarian-nationalism-vs-national.html
Libertarian Nationalism Vs. National Libertarianism
Except for a quibble here and there, they seem to be pretty much the same thing. I (and others) call it Libertarian Nationalism, while Vox Day calls it National Libertarianism. Whatever you call it, it’s essentially a policy of realistic libertarianism, as opposed to the rainbow-unicornian view of the world that too many libertarians have absorbed from their progressive pals.
One of my favorite people has been going on about how opposing the free movement of people over our border is anti-libertarian. She is dead wrong, but she can justify it by taking libertarian principles to a ridiculous extreme. She is absolutely sincere in this, make no mistake about it, and is simply in the position that so many of us are, of not seeing the forest for the trees. Because libertarianism isn’t a theory of reality. It’s a political philosophy. And a political philosophy stops being useful the minute it begins denying reality in favor of philosophical consistency. And, in this border connection, reality tells us that open borders will change the demographics of the nation in precisely the wrong way for the furtherment of libertarianism. It will change it for the furtherment of liberalism/neoconservatism. And if there is any value to libertarian thinking, surely one of the first things one should do is take steps to preserve it, not drown it in a flood of barbarian hordes.
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100.
BTW, I never attacked Sensitti saying he was not a Son of the South..that’s just the likker talking . I did say only a moron would actively supported the Republican party.
Did the GOP secure the border with control of the White House and Congress? NO.
Did the GOP balance the budget with control of the White House and Congress? NO.
Who said “I think we are going to crush [the Tea Party] everywhere.”? Mitch McConnell of the GOP.
Reagan recapitulated the Founders’ teaching on liberty, equality and consent of the governed in these two eloquent sentences:
“From time to time we’ve been tempted to believe that society has become too complex to be managed by self-rule, that government by an elite group is superior to government for, by, and of the people. But if no one among us is capable of governing himself, then who among us has the capacity to govern someone else?”
It is not Donald Trump that makes the political-media establishment look pathetic, but a disdain for self-government and its own lack of integrity, statesmanship and vision.
http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/campaign-2016-more-pathetic-than-laughable?f=must_reads
Ace, from ace of spades hq, quote, “One thing that has people exited about trump is that he is talking about what is in our own interest, rather than talking about what is universally better for a generic group of non denominational people. Nationalism has it’s pitfalls, obviously, but people are fucking sick and tired of being told they cannot take their own side in an argument of tremendous importance.
For many of us, this is a very important point-In fact, for some of us, this is the most important point of all. Without establishing that the people of the united states have a right to make policy for the benefit of we ourselves- what the hell is the point of the rest of it? Talk, by the way, is very cheap for many self declared universalists.” Amen, ace
Trump may be fiddling, but he’s fiddling to his base and most have never heard such attention given to their REAL concerns , so it is pure music to their ears. The immigrant invasion issue will not be put back in the Repukes sound proof party box. It is the #1 national issue , yet the Cuck controlled congress still ignores the ongoing transformation of the demographics of this once Christian nation.
The evidence is indisputable.The US is being invaded by foreign nationalists both legal and illegal, aided and abetted by congressional representatives of both parties.The question that should be on every American’s mind is WHY?
Federal Data: U.S. Annually Admits Quarter Of A Million Muslim Migrants
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/14/federal-data-u-s-annually-admits-quarter-of-a-million-muslim-migrants/
+1000
Flash- For your (7:47) post.