Guest Post by Scott Adams
One of the things I will enjoy about the Trump presidency is watching non-business writers try to explain his methods. Case in point, the recent stories about Ford and Carrier keeping some parts of their manufacturing in the United States because Trump negotiated/bullied them into staying. If you tell that story through a political filter – which is all I have seen so far – you focus on the facts. In this case, the political story is that both the Ford and Carrier situations are exaggerated claims of success.
The political filter misses the story completely. As usual.
Here’s the real story. You need a business filter to see it clearly. In my corporate life I watched lots of new leaders replace old leaders. And there is one trick the good leaders do that bad leaders don’t: They make some IMMEDIATE improvement that everyone can see. It has to be visible, relatively simple, and fast.
Why?
Because humans are not rational. Our first impressions rule our emotions forever. Trump has a second chance to make a first impression because his performance as President is fresh ground. Trump is attacking the job like a seasoned CEO, not like a politician. He knows that his entire four-year term will be judged by what happens before it even starts. What he does today will determine how much support and political capital he has for his entire term.
So what does a Master Persuader do when he needs to create a good first impression to last for years? He looks around for any opportunity that is visible, memorable, newsworthy, true to his brand, and easy to change.
Enter Ford.
Enter Carrier.
Trump and Pence recognized these openings and took them. Political writers will interpret this situation as routine credit-grabbing and exaggerated claims. But business writers will recognize Trump’s strategy as what I will call the “new CEO Move.” Smart CEOs try to create visible victories within days of taking the job, to set the tone. It’s all about the psychology.
If you are looking at Trump’s claims of success with Ford and Carrier in terms of technical accuracy and impact on the economy, you will be underwhelmed. But if you view it through a business filter and understand that psychology is the point of the exercise, you’re seeing one of the best new CEO moves you will ever see.
I’ll say this again because it’s important. We’re all watching closely to see if President Elect Trump has the skill to be president. And while you watch, Trump and Pence are pulling off one of the most skillfully executed new CEO plays you will ever see. Remember what I taught you in the past year: Facts don’t matter. What matters is how you feel. And when you watch Trump and Pence fight and scratch to keep jobs in this country, it changes how you will feel about them for their entire term. This is a big win for Trump/Pence disguised as a small win.
The political press will dismiss Ford and Carrier with fact-checking. But the stock market will be smarter. Experienced business people recognize the “new CEO” move and they know how powerful and important it is.
If you are worried about Trump’s talent for leadership, this should help set your mind at ease. He hasn’t even started the job and he’s already performing better than any past president in the same phase.
Bravo, Scott
Amen and Amen!!
Here’s 30 seconds of obongo. https://mobile.twitter.com/hrtablaze/status/804436409842995200/video/1p Now a couple of minutes of Trump. http://video.foxnews.com/v/5231319619001/?#sp=show-clips and here is ultra liberal Cenk Ugar to explain it to you. PERFECTLY.
Star,
Cent (Cenk. Damned auto correct.) was a destroyed man in that video. He seemed nearly in tears. Thanks, you made my day.
???
Scott is spot on. In my circles of family and friends, I’m sort of amazed at how positive and hopeful they all are about the Trump administration—even some who have done nothing but laugh at him, and didn’t vote for him. I think too, the positive, upbeat “America First” rhetoric makes people feel good, whether they’ll admit it or not.
At any rate, it would be almost impossible to get any worse than ovomit.
I would attribute their change of attitude to normal survival behavior. Since they are primarily herd like they instinctively know which direction the herd is moving and are adjusting. Their survival depends on not being isolated and being anti-Trump is something they are recognizing could be a very risky social position to hold for too long.
This is very different from the sort of people that got Trump elected. Their/our survival depended on accurately reading the herd and the situation and making smart tactical choices that required sometimes being completely isolated.
The critics do not count…….only the warriors in the arena. The warriors in the Midwest needed a lifeline/lifeboat and they now have one…..Details on the future and how to get back to decent operations and lives begin now……….