The History of Climate Change — Empires Fall When Warming Turns to Cooling

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

global-warming-cyclicalHere is a chart of the real data for global cyclical trends in the energy output of the sun and CO2 levels. Look at this chart prior to the Minoan warming. There was a very cold period a bit longer than 8,000 years ago — the Ice Age. You see what I would call a slingshot move when the temperatures swung sharply to a record high over about 300 years, according to the ice core samples. Thereafter, we move into a bear market, oscillating trend to retest the low made 4700 years ago. Then there is the steady rise into what we call the Minoan high.

 

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Prior to the Minoan high, the temperature (climate change) was much more volatile. This is what drove the great migrations of humans around the globe if we assume they are correct and life began in Africa. This is the sharp swings that most likely resulted in frozen mammoths, lions, and woolly rhinoceros that were discovered in 1772. The warming up period into the Minoan high was really the birth of civilization/urbanization.

catal-huyuk

It was about 6700 BC when the earliest city appeared known by the name Catal Huyuk located in Turkey that covered about 30 acres. The buildings were of mud and brick construction, but inside there appeared plastered walls. No doubt, this was the latest modern invention that illustrates two important developments. First, this confirms the birth of an urban trade skill, and secondly, homes were found with paintings on the walls, suggesting the flourishing development of art — one of the last skills to develop within urban life reflecting good economic times.

The Minoan civilization was an Aegean Bronze Age civilization that arose on the island of Crete and other Aegean islands and flourished from approximately 3650 BC to 1400 BC. Clearly, sea travel must have emerged for the people to migrate from Turkey to Crete. Civilization appeared to emerge with this warming period. You then have the catastrophic eruption of Thera (Santorini), which may have been the largest known volcanic eruption within recorded history. That ended the Minoan civilization and gave rise to the plundering society of Mycenaean Greeks who conquered the Minoans and then Troy. But as weather turned colder, Greece, mostly rocky, entered its Dark Age and was unable to produce enough food. They became the Sea Peoples who invaded Northern Africa.

The climate changed again and began to warm, inspiring the rise of the Roman Empire. The warming trend allowed Julius Caesar (100-44 BC) to conquer and civilize Europe. The Roman Empire had three major climate changes known as the Early Subatlantic (900 BC–175 AD), Mid-Subatlantic (175–750 AD), and Late Subatlantic (since 750 AD). Written, archaeological evidence independently records that during the period of the Roman Empire’s maximum expansion and final crisis, the climate underwent drastic changes of cooling. During the reign of Trajan (98-117 AD), this was the peak in the territory occupied by the Roman Empire, which coincided with the Roman climatic peak in warming.

The climate change resulted in a sharp trend to a colder climate, which inspired the barbarian invasions (migration) into the Roman Empire where they moved south as the north grew severely colder. Historians imply that there were rapid fluctuations during the late empire after the reign of Trajan. We do have Seneca the Younger describing in 61 AD, a year before Nero ordered him to kill himself, the high level of air pollution in Rome associated with the extensive wood burning for fuel. This confirms there has always been pollution associated with cities.

The Roman Empire is considered to have peaked with the reign of Marcus Aureleus in 180 AD. That is where we draw the line for the beginning of the decline and fall of Rome. That is certainly the peak in the population of Rome itself. When the climate began to turn down, back into a strong cooling period, the fortunes of Rome also turned down. The evidence suggests that the Great Monetary collapse of Rome (around 180–290 AD), coincided with a sharp period of cooling. This seriously affected the northwestern provinces of the empire, especially in Germany and France, which clearly instigated the barbarian invasions of the south. We also have tree-rings dating (dendrochronology) from this period, which indicates there was a severe drought that began about 338 AD and persisted until 377 AD. This contributed to moving the capitol to Constantinople, which construction began about 324 AD when Constantine became the sole ruler.

The climate changed much colder in the north and sent the invasion of the Huns. The migration of the Huns, north of the Black Sea, drove the Goths to flee and press into the Roman Empire. The Roman Emperor Claudius II Gothicus (268-270 AD) was given that title for his defeat of the Goths. Climate change was a major driving force that led to the fall of the Western portion of the Roman Empire with the last Roman Emperor Romulus Augustus (475-476 AD). In the Eastern Roman Empire, climate change resulted in a regional prolonged drought from about 400—540 AD.

washington-delaware

The medieval warming was when the Dark Age of Europe began to light, giving birth to the Renaissance period. We begin to see the age of empire building when Spain, Portugal, Britain, and the Dutch all went off to the travel the world. We then begin to fall back into the last mini-Ice Age. We can see that the hard times led to revolution against monarchy in America and France. Paintings of the American Revolution illustrate how cold it really was with Washington crossing the iced Delaware River.

So unfortunately, when I say we have put everything into this model, I really mean what I say. When you put together the historical data, what pops out at you is just amazing. I had to gather coins from around the world to recreate the world monetary system and then place that on the timeline as well. What jumps out at you is the correlation of civilization and the rise and fall of empires with climate change.

Bruno Giordano burned at the stake Armstrong Economics

To have these charlatans schlep this bogus theory that man has created this global warming trend prevents real research. It is outrageous that these people have the audacity to want to make disagreeing with them a criminal act. I will not shut up, for these people are blocking a real investigation into how the world functions. I really would prefer death to living in this fake world that these horrible, pretend scientists are trying to create as Karl Marx did. These same types of people burned Giordano Bruno alive at the stake for saying that the Earth revolved around the Sun. If these people could, they would do this to me in a second.

 I welcome Trump's pick for the EPA - THIS IS DESPERATELY NEEDED!

 

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28 Comments
hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
December 15, 2016 2:12 pm

Then why is there a green line in his chart?

kokoda the deplorable
kokoda the deplorable
  hardscrabble farmer
December 15, 2016 2:39 pm

Good question – I think it is a Trend Line for temp.; it is not the typical ‘linear regression’ Trend Line plotted by scientists, which would appear as a straight line.

The only thing this chart shows is that planet earth has been in a cooling trend for 3,000 years.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
  kokoda the deplorable
December 15, 2016 2:42 pm

I was just kidding. He says “nothing is linear” written on a chart featuring a line. I found it amusing.

Hoboken411
Hoboken411
  hardscrabble farmer
December 15, 2016 2:45 pm

The better question is – how the hell do they know what the temperature was 10,000 years ago?

You cannot make conclusions only “guesstimates.”

And how do you challenge such data charts anyway?

Jason Calley
Jason Calley
  Hoboken411
December 15, 2016 3:27 pm

“how the hell do they know what the temperature was 10,000 years ago?”

The basic principle is not too complicated. You take an ice core (in this case a core from the ice-cap covering central Greenland.) You count the number of layers in the ice, starting at recent snows near the surface and counting backward year by year as you get deeper. Each year is a layer. Take a sample from each layer. It so happens that when water evaporates from the oceans and forms clouds, that the heavier molecules (generally the H2O that has a heavier oxygen atom in it) don’t evaporate at the same rate as the lighter molecules, and the ratio of heavy to light varies with the temperature. If you measure the ratio of oxygen isotopes in the ice sample, you get a rough idea of how warm things were when the water evaporated to make the cloud that dropped the snow that formed the ice.

The big question is, how accurate is this? How big are the error bars? Also, how fine a time period can you measure, in other words, if it is cold one year and hot the next, do the temperature estimates “smear” together for those years? Well, it ain’t perfect… but it is the best we have.

Vic
Vic
  Hoboken411
December 17, 2016 3:46 am

I’ve often wondered that.

Peaknic
Peaknic
  kokoda the deplorable
December 16, 2016 10:19 am

Trend lines can be straight or curved or even with multiple curves. It is a mathematical formula that is tested to be the best representation of the data points. If it has an exponent (i.e., X to the power of Y) is is curved. Depending on the formula, the Trend line can be “S” shaped or even more complex.
The researcher used statistical analysis to find the “line of best fit”.

Dutchman
Dutchman
December 15, 2016 2:20 pm

“and secondly, homes were found with paintings on the walls,”

Usually of gals with big tits.

Cartersville Critter
Cartersville Critter
December 15, 2016 2:37 pm

When, a while back, I heard Goldman Sachs was opening up a trading desk to trade carbon units I thought; OK, Da Boys are setting the table for dinner.

BTW, who can image the gang who brought us globalism, these terrible wars of choice, ZIRP, political correctness and cultural Marxism now give a rat’s ass about our futures? It’s enough for me to know if they want it, I don’t.

kokoda the deplorable
kokoda the deplorable
December 15, 2016 2:41 pm

When M. Armstrong states climate change, he is referring to Natural Climate Change. The supposed Global Warming Climate Change by IPCC doesn’t start until about 1950.

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
December 15, 2016 2:50 pm

The 1851 Emanuel Leutze painting of George crossing the Delaware is less than convincing evidence. Just my 2 cents.

Dan
Dan
  hardscrabble farmer
December 16, 2016 7:43 am

That always made a big impression on my students

james the deplorable wanderer
james the deplorable wanderer
December 15, 2016 3:06 pm

Isn’t the geometrical definition of a “line” straight (the shortest distance between two points is a straight line)? Wouldn’t the green construction above be more of an “arc”?
JtW, a specialist in anal retentiveness and quibbling as well as geometry

Crat
Crat
  james the deplorable wanderer
December 15, 2016 3:10 pm

Nah-it’s a bent line!!

hardscrabble farmer
hardscrabble farmer
  james the deplorable wanderer
December 15, 2016 3:11 pm

You are absolutely correct.

You are a specialist in anal retentive quibbling.

I have heard the word “curvilinear” used before to describe a line that is curved, but it is still considered a line, n’est ce pas?

My understanding is that a line begins in one place and moves towards another, whereas cycles involve a return to the point of origin, if not in reality, metaphorically.

james the deplorable wanderer
james the deplorable wanderer
  hardscrabble farmer
December 15, 2016 3:58 pm

Everyone should have at least one talent, and now you know mine!
Strange, I don’t get invited to many parties ….

Francis Marion
Francis Marion
  james the deplorable wanderer
December 15, 2016 7:17 pm

I suspect that is a common ailment amongst most TBP’ers….

Edwitness
Edwitness
December 15, 2016 4:07 pm

A good explanation for the climate changes including the great ice age comes from the fact that the Genesis flood Ccused the ice age. More on this can be found at

The History of Climate Change — Empires Fall When Warming Turns to Cooling

Blessings:-}

unit472
unit472
December 15, 2016 4:21 pm

A look at a globe of the earth would show that, due to an accident of plate tectonics, much of the earth’s land mass lies in northerly latitudes.

Paleontologists tell us that the Arctic Ocean once was as warm as the seas off of New England and that grazing dinosaurs roamed its shores. Where grass can grow so can crops and whatever land is lost to sea level rise ( and wetlands are, so we are told, the most productive lands of all) is more than compensated for by the increase in acreage that can be put under the plow.

The one thing that mankind cannot survive is cold. Nothing can grow on ice. No trees, no crops and only marine mammals and penguins can survive in arctic littorals. If Los Angeles or London disappear under the ocean we can manage. It won’t happen overnight. In fact there was no London 2000 years ago and Los Angeles only appeared as a major city little more than a century ago. A new metropolis can be built on Hudson Bay and Anchorage the new San Francisco. We have the time!

BB
BB
December 15, 2016 5:06 pm

Everything is circulus and nothing is leaning : I call bullshit.God says otherwise.Now who knows for sure.God of the Bible or this Monday morning quarterback ????

Edwitness
Edwitness
  BB
December 15, 2016 5:28 pm

Hey BB,
My vote is for the God of the Bible:-D
Blessings:-}

Boat Guy
Boat Guy
December 15, 2016 5:28 pm

All the science on our global climate history are educated guesses with the best methods we can arrange for now . To say human activity is not an issue is ridiculous BUT how big a part is it to the climate , probably very little ! Stop polluting the environment as much as we can is not a bad endevour but screaming into the night about it is usless dribble !
Our industrialization and technology has left us with messes to cleanup and the capabilities to clean up our mess . Remember even a dog doesn’t shit where it eats !
Remember also don’t stand on the steps of a private jet that burns enough fuel on take off to supply fuel needs average people use in a year or more and tell us to clean up our act !
We can clean up prevent and repair but not with some left wing bull shit agenda for carbon credits scam , boat Guy worked a hard job in rough conditions and I know when someone is sincere and when they are full of shit !

Vic
Vic
  Boat Guy
December 17, 2016 3:51 am

I always wondered what the money for carbon credits or a climate tax was supposed to actually buys.

Suzanna
Suzanna
December 15, 2016 9:27 pm

Pollution control became climate change when the greedy plotters
figured out they could tax the beleaguered American middle class
for the pollution created in other countries. Natch American
manufacturing high tailed out of the USA, getting a two-fer.
The union leaders got paid off to act surprised.

It was a pretty good scam but the devil is in the details. The boys were
primed, but alas, the front runner, The Chicago Climate Exchange Bank
failed. The crooks were bedeviled:

CHICAGO CLIMATE EXCHANGE (CCX) – Discover the Networks
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/printgroupProfile.asp?grp... Proxy Highlight
When it was launched in 2003, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) became the world’s … He also knew Illinois state senator Barack Obama, who, in addition to his … practice of purchasing risky mortgages from banks – and then bundling and … a 10 percent stake in CCX and became the company’s fifth largest co- owner.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/obama-maurice-strong-al-gore-key-players-cashing-chicago-climate-exchange/32833
(M. Strong took the fall, sued by that NYC SEC guy/the 5K/noc hooker guy)

http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/shorebank.php
(“This is an interesting story put together from various articles and TV shows by the British Times paper.It shows what Obama and his friends are really all about. It’s not hope and change, it is money.”)

There you have it.
Suzanna

Mountain life
Mountain life
December 15, 2016 11:55 pm

Great book to read, “Floods, Famines and Emperors” by Brian Fagan. Came out in the 90’s but explains the science of ice core samples, what happened with history in conjunction with climate fluctuations. Great read and very engaging.

Walt
Walt
December 16, 2016 12:05 am

“..I had to gather coins from around the world to recreate the world monetary system..” Two of which reside in my collection now. A provenance of ‘Property of Princeton Economics acquired by Martin Armstrong’ created quite a premium.

Dan
Dan
December 16, 2016 7:49 am

Yep, COLD is the enemy of civilization, not warmth. Think about this little anecdote: which would have more impact on the food producing areas of the country, say in Iowa: an 80 degree heat wave in January or a 25 degree polar-vortex in July???

Vic
Vic
December 17, 2016 3:36 am

Notice the first civilization began around 6,000, around the same time the Bible says. What a coincidence. (And of course, Noah’s Ark supposedly landed in the mountains of Ararat in TURKEY.) From what I’ve read, as a Christian, of course, the flood caused a short ice age, probably about 3 to 5 years, and followed by a warming period. There have been no ice ages after that, regardless of what “science” and “history” says. There was only the one. And we have had differing climate since then, fluctuating towards the warm and then fluctuating towards cold. Just normal climate for the earth.