Originally Posted at Free Market Shooter
The Trump administration recently levied additional tariffs against Turkey, with Trump himself tweeting about how “Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!”:
I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar! Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 10, 2018
The Wall Street Journal was just one among many mainstream media voices that suggested the tariffs are retaliation for Turkey’s refusal to release US Pastor Andrew Brunson…
During high-level talks in Washington, U.S. and Turkish officials were unable to produce a breakthrough in an impasse that has pushed Turkey’s economy into turmoil, the officials said. Turkey’s currency has plunged amid the crisis amid fears that the U.S. could take tougher steps before the standoff is resolved.
The Trump administration is now positioned to impose new penalties on Turkey for refusing to free Andrew Brunson, an evangelical North Carolina pastor who was detained in Turkey as part of a sweeping crackdown after a failed July 2016 coup.
…but a much more plausible reason for the tariffs is due to Turkish threats to raid Incirlik Air Base, the major US air base in Turkey:
The 60-page criminal complaint also calls for Turkish officials to shut down U.S. military flights from Incirlik, a portion of which the U.S. Air Force has sole control over, and execute a search warrant at the facility to look for additional evidence. So far, the Turkish government does not appear to have acted on any of the charges.
The complaint specifically calls for the arrest of 11 individuals, but it’s not clear if any of them are still assigned to Incirlik. The first two are U.S. Air Force Colonels John Walker and Michael Manion, who were, respectively, the commander and vice commander of the 39th Air Base Wing at Incirlik in 2016.
Incirlik is of pivotal importance to US military interests, and not just for its role in basing/launching aircraft involved in Syria and all across the middle east – the base also houses “as many as” 50 B-61 nuclear bombs:
According to open-source estimates, the United States may store as many as 50 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik. Those make up one-third of the approximately 150 nuclear weapons thought to be housed in five nations in Europe as part of NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements.
Business Insider has detailed many of the reasons for the deterioration in US-Turkish relations, and while they are more numerous than just the threats towards Incirlik Air Base…
Though the bombs are securely confined to the US-controlled side of the base, regularly maintained and looked after, and at little risk of falling into enemy hands, experts have long questioned the wisdom of holding US nuclear weapons in Turkey.
Issues surrounding Turkey’s stability as a US ally arose during the attempted coup of July 2016, and have only grown during the Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s crackdown on tens of thousands of citizens for suspected anti-government activities.
In April 2017, Erdogan gained a sweeping new set of powers under a constitutional referendum, which he used to consolidate power and continue his attacks on political enemies. Throughout the entire coup and aftermath, Turkey has maintained that a cleric harbored by the US organized the coup.
…they include other military issues between the nations, most notably the Turkish decision to buy Russian S-400 air defense systems, which ultimately led to a halt on delivery of US F-35s. These jets have not only been bought and paid for by Turkey, they have Turkish pilots in the US training to operate them, even in spite of this action:
The U.S. Senate has added a clause to its version of the annual defense budget bill for the 2019 fiscal year that seeks to block the transfer of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Turkey. The vote was a response to that country’s purchase of Russian S-400 air defense systems and arrest and prosecution of an American citizen, but it won’t come into effect before Turkish authorities take delivery of their first batch of the stealthy jets and both sides appear to be preparing for a broader political crisis.
On June 18, 2018, Senators voted 85 to 10 to include the provision targeting Turkey’s participation in the F-35 program into the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). The Turkish government has been one of six major partner nations in the Joint Strike Fighter project since 2002, is responsible for production of certain components of the jet, is slated to provide maintenance services to other operators in Europe, and has more than 100 of the aircraft on order, making it one of the biggest overall customers.
Tariffs might not appear to be that big of a deal on the surface, but they have caused the Turkish Lira to drop 20% in one day alone, which was already down close to 33% the day before:
#USDTRY this isn't yearly, monthly, weekly, this is an intraday chart pic.twitter.com/pM5MVBA2U7
— Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) August 10, 2018
The lira stood at 5.5575 against the dollar at 1724 GMT, down 5 from the previous day’s close and after sliding to an all-time low of 5.5690. It was headed for its biggest one-day drop since 2008.
The lira has lost nearly a third of its value this year, mainly fuelled by worries about Erdogan’s influence over monetary policy.
As President Trump has made nuclear deterrence a cornerstone of his foreign policy, even stating that he met North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in an to attempt to avert nuclear war…
Reporter: "You're defending now Kim Jong Un's human rights records. How can you do that?"
.@POTUS: "You know why? Because I don't want to see a nuclear weapon destroy you and your family." pic.twitter.com/H50VJuP9xr
— Fox News (@FoxNews) June 15, 2018
…the most logical explanation for the tariffs is that the Trump administration is sending a crystal clear message to Turkey – even the threat of raiding Incirlik Air Base will be met with swift and harsh retaliation.
If we go to war against Turkey, do we still have to pay for the other NATO nations to fight against us?
I thought the US had already moved all nukes out of Turkey
BTW it was a Hilary and Obama administration that fomented or encouraged the coup. A USAF base totally surrounded by hostile armed combatants, where is Chesty Puller when we need him or maybe Col David Lowndes, USMC?
Exactly why are we still flying (illegal) missions in Syria? And whoever authorized storing nukes at this base should be drawn and quartered…
A tariff on turkeys?? Can’t they just fly away? When will it stop? I love my sardines I get from Trader Joe’s — imported from Canada. If they put a tax on sardines I will be protesting in the streets, for real.
Trump tweeted that relations with Turkey are bad. Hahahaha! Understatement of the year. They are bad with Russia — his meeting with Putin really changed nothing. Bad with China. The Germans, trust me, can’t stand Trump.
We have sanctions and/or tariffs on half the known world, seemingly.
I’m not one to make predictions, but I just don’t see this ending well.
I find it amusing that the Germans hate Trump but they don’t seem to mind it at all when all of their new sand niggers and nubians pork their young women. I can imagine that Trump’s attitude towards them may have a root in that he doesn’t think much of people who evidently have little self respect.
It may be time to move those nukes. One long, but eminently interesting read is “The Muslim Centuries.” Never ever trust a Muslim, they simply are evil and must be exterminated if we are to ever have world peace. It’s not a religion of peace; it’s a death cult against western values. The Ottoman Empire ended less than a hundred years ago. Turkey has the largest army of our NATO allies. Never ever believe those goat humpers. They’d love nothing better than to subjugate us all.
The US military has been floating the idea of moving the B61s out of Incirlik for years – keeping them there, especially with a guy like Erdogan in charge, is a recipe for disaster.
The same argument could be made about the entire base itself, but you’d have to stop all the middle east military intervention before you close the base – its just too important to US operations in the theater. Can’t put the chicken before the egg.
It’s a disaster because the Clowns tried to overthrow Erdogan, in typical incompetent fashion…We put the Turkey before the egg…
Incirlik is an important USAF installation but, like the manned nuclear armed strike aircraft it bases, has its time passed?
I have no idea what current US nuclear strike doctrine is but a rational person may well assume that sending a manned fighter bomber armed with a nuclear bomb anywhere is for the day after a nuclear war breaks out. A mopping up operation. The reason is first and second strike weapons are not manned. They are carried by faster more survivable missile platforms. The idea that we could penetrate Russian airspace with a nuclear armed manned aircraft dawdling along at 600 mph and not provoke a Russian nuclear counterstrike is right out of ‘Fail Safe’. Imagine it the other way. A Russian strike aircraft armed with a nuclear bomb is shot down over US or Allied territory. ‘Sorry’ isn’t going to cut it.
There maybe a reason and a place for manned aircraft dropping nuclear weapons but that would only be in extremis and only after a major enemy conventional attack we had no other way of defeating. Turkey is no longer enough of an ally or such strategic importance that the US could risk nuclear war over. Get those nuclear bombs out of there and let the Navy handle any theater based nuclear capability.
B61s can be carried by a very wide variety of Air Force (and Navy) jets – but you’re correct, they’re not a first or second strike weapon (unless carried by the B-2 – which would not occur out of Incirlik).
They basically exist (as with the other European nuclear weapons) as a deterrent in case all US ICBMs and SLBMs are somehow defeated in a first strike (which is extremely unlikely). Presumably since Incirlik is a known target, were that to happen, jets carrying the weapons would be dispersed to other airfields.
At this point, SLBMs are reliable enough to be at least in consideration to retire the entire US ICBM strategic deterrent. You are correct, there is almost zero reason for those bombs at Incirlik.
Lately I am coming across claims that the B61’s have been secretly moved out of Turkey, to Romania etc. It seems to me that Russia might have a serious problem with that. Anyone here think that the bombs have been taken out and if so, to where?
Tariffs are nothing more than higher taxes wrapped in the flag.
In 2003, as a U.S.A.F. member, I spent about 2 months TDY (temporary duty) at Incrilik Air Base, Turkey. At that time there was much talk , on base, of dead animals, feces, and even dangerous chemicals, being purposely dumped into the base water supply.
The only Turks that seemed friendly/respectful towards U.S. members were the ones getting rich off G.I. $$.
The Turks are not our friends.