Today’s emerging markets are tomorrow’s powerhouses, according to a recent forecast from Standard Chartered, a multinational bank headquartered in London.
The bank sees developing economies like Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Egypt all moving up the ladder – and by 2030, it estimates that seven of the world’s largest 10 economies by GDP (PPP) will be located in emerging markets.
Comparing 2017 vs. 2030
To create some additional context, we’ve compared these projections to the IMF’s most recent data on GDP (PPP) for 2017. We’ve also added in potential % change for each country, if comparing these two data sets directly.
Here’s how the numbers change:
| Rank | Country | Proj. GDP (2030, PPP) | GDP (2017, PPP) | % change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | China | $64.2 trillion | $23.2 trillion | +177% |
| #2 | India | $46.3 trillion | $9.5 trillion | +387% |
| #3 | United States | $31.0 trillion | $19.4 trillion | +60% |
| #4 | Indonesia | $10.1 trillion | $3.2 trillion | +216% |
| #5 | Turkey | $9.1 trillion | $2.2 trillion | +314% |
| #6 | Brazil | $8.6 trillion | $3.2 trillion | +169% |
| #7 | Egypt | $8.2 trillion | $1.2 trillion | +583% |
| #8 | Russia | $7.9 trillion | $4.0 trillion | +98% |
| #9 | Japan | $7.2 trillion | $5.4 trillion | +33% |
| #10 | Germany | $6.9 trillion | $4.2 trillion | +64% |
Possibly the biggest surprise on the list is Egypt, a country that Standard Chartered sees growing at a torrid pace over this timeframe.
If comparing using the 2017 IMF figures, the difference between the two numbers is an astonishing 583%. This makes such a projection quite ambitious, especially considering that organizations such as the IMF see Egypt averaging closer to 8% in annual GDP growth (PPP) over the next few years.
The Ascent of Emerging Markets
Egypt aside, it’s likely that the ascent of emerging markets will continue to be a theme in future projections by other banks and international organizations.
By 2030, India will be the second largest economy in PPP terms according to many different models – and by then, it will also be the most populous country in the world as well. (It’s expected to pass China in 2026)
With the divide between emerging and developed economies closing at a seemingly faster rate than ever before, this should be seen as an interesting opportunity for all investors taking a long-term view.
The Visual Capitalist does a splendid job making clear the interrelationships of such yuge numbers. 100+ Trillion dollars between China and India economies alone? Whew.
Looking at the projections, however, I do not think the collapse of the Petrodollar system was factored in.
It will happen. And when it does things shall get very, very ugly.
Not sure I buy the projected growth of India and China. Grow? Yes, but not to that scale. Ten years ago I would have believed it, but both of those countries have their own unique cultural and societal factors limiting their modernization and growth. The people make a nation, not vice versa, as many believe.
Pequiste- New technology will keep the US in high growth, we will lead in a new paradigm shift in world energy so reserve currency loss would not hold us back.
TC- You fail to take in account the fact that China is colonizing around the world, that opens up HUGE growth as they are the new empire.
Egyptian gdp growing 6 times in 10 years? Not going to happen. Bullshit! And oh yeah more bullshit and some more bullshit
It is obvious that econometric models do not work. They can’t even predict GDP growth rates over the next 6 months so trying to forecast what happens a decade or more in the future is ridiculous.
The question that needs to be asked is where will the resources needed to create such astonishing increases in global production come from? Some might say doubling global GDP doesn’t mean we will go from making 80 million cars per year to 160 million but that the ‘value’ of each car will be hedonically adjusted upwards 100%. That still leaves the question of where the demand will come from as populations age and even decline in the wealthy nations with only Africans, the least affluent and productive population, continuing to grow in numbers. Alternatively one could assume that the ‘average’ car buyer will move up from a $30,000 car to a $60,000 car but there is no evidence of growing wages to enable this to happen. Automation can help increase production but robots do not earn wages to buy their own output.
One might say the world will not make 100% more physical goods but instead produce more services. The problem here is it is very difficult to increase productivity in service industries. A doctor or a pilot can only treat one patient or fly one airplane at a time.
Looks like they got their projection numbers mixed up with their global warming data. Oh well, probably both have the same accuracy. They still can not predict more than a few days out in either situation.
That title worried me for a second. I felt like I might be having a Rip Van Winkle moment, losing another decade in a flash.
Is this priced in gold, sea shells, or central bank funny money?
China and India have like a combined 3 billion people shitting in the local rivers and waterways- not the mark of financial frontrunners.
In San Francisco and Camden NJ the citizenry shit in the streets.
We have near 50 million on EBT.
So what.
The Chinese middle class alone is estimated to be the same size as the entire population of the U.S.A.
The Chinese and Indians make steel, trucks, have powerful militaries, nuclear weapons and are part of the Eurasian landmass. They are astute in business.
But you are correct about the pricing question. It will probably be SDRs* by the time 2030 rolls around. Unless the Yuan becomes the world’s reserve currency that is.
Who owns the People’s Bank of China? Rothschild? I don’t think so, but hey in today’s fucked up world, anything is possible.
*SDRs = Special Drawing Rights. A “basket” of world currencies made into a single unit.
I don’t trust the projection of a bank ran by baby eaters, but I find it astounding a bank sees the US on the rise and the Deagle sees it on a harsh decline.
http://www.deagel.com/country/forecast.aspx
Today’s measures of GDP include government spending. If government ONLY spent what it took in (rather than being able to massively deficit spend), these projections might mean a lot more.