Guest Post by Tom Luongo
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has turned the corner on relations with the United States. Her speech at the Munich Security Conference should be considered Germany’s divorce filing from the U.S.-led post-WWII institutional order.
It’s clear that to me now that Merkel’s priorities for what is left of her term in office are as follows:
- Carve out an independent path for EU foreign policy from the U.S. through the creation of an EU army, obviating the need for NATO and…
- End U.S. occupation of Germany.
- Secure Germany’s energy future, which also secures its political future as the leader of the European Union, by stitching together the continent with Russian energy arteries — Nordstream 2, Turkstream.
- Manage the shift away from NATO as a controlling force in Europe’s relationship with Russia which doesn’t serve Europe’s long term purposes.
Merkel will play both sides of the game for as long as she can but Trump and his merry band of Neocon psychotics are determined to stop Nordstream 2. They realize pipelines like these represent near permanent connections between Europe and Russia which the deadens Trump’s desire to maintain the empire through controlling the flow and price of energy.
For Trump there are three areas he is pushing Merkel. As I noted in my latest piece for Strategic Culture Foundation:
Trump’s pressuring Germany over the Nordstream 2 pipeline, withdrawing from the JCPOA and increasing NATO funding all have a common theme…
… Trump is trying to make Germany’s economy uncompetitive by raising the cost of imported energy.This is obvious when we look at the US’s opposition to Nordstream 2….
… Ending US involvement in the JCPOA was meant to destroy the agreement and end all European investment in Iran’s energy sector, thereby stopping a steady flow of relatively cheap Iranian oil to Europe through its oil majors like Total (France) and Eni (Italy)…
{Increasing NATO funding} — Germany, in particular, would have to raise defense spending to such a degree that it would be unsustainable for them to maintain their current government funding in other areas.
This will pull capital out of the productive part of German society and lower their competitiveness vis a vis US producers.
In my interview with Radio Sputnik Moscow recently I made the point that if Germany were to spend two percent of GDP on defense it would represent spending 20% of the annual government budget on defense.
But the numbers are even worse than that.
The German government’s budget in 2018 was just shy of €143 billion. Nominal German GDP was €3677.44 billion, 2 percent of which is €73.54 billion or nearly 50% of the German budget.
Merkel understands that would grind the German government and its economy to a halt. What Trump wants is for Germany to plough its budget surplus (which stood at €59.2 billion in 2018) wholly into defense spending while also maintaining complete control over NATO’s mission.
We pay the lion’s share of NATO’s costs because we receive the lion’s share of the benefits NATO provides. And those benefits are not protecting Europe from the scourge of the evil Russians contrary to the insane fulminations of the laptop bombardiers on K Street.
No, the benefits of NATO exist wholly to weaken Russia and keep Europe from hooking up with its natural ally to the east. And along this vector, Merkel is, for once, acting in Germany’s best interests, but only because they dovetail with the EU’s.
Guys like John Bolton and all of our top brass at the Pentagon lie awake at night fearful most of a German/Russian economic and political alliance. And everything we do is to force Merkel into difficult choices, especially as an occupied country.
The Silence Heard ‘Round the World at Munich during Mike Pence’s speech should be a wake up call to everyone in D.C. that the world as we’ve known it has changed.
And regardless of the future of the European Union as it stands on the edge of political and economic collapse, Germany will command some transnational bloc of countries in the coming years.
Pipelines outlast presidents. Trump is demanding our allies destroy themselves for no tangible benefit to themselves. The threat of Russia is to U.S. hegemony, not Germany’s.
This is why Bolton, Pence and Pompeo were ignored and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was the toast of the conference. Russia has made it very clear it will look east to China, Iran and the rest of Asia if Europe continues to kowtow to the U.S.
This is why Germany is no longer interested in adding new sanctions on Russia and is now officially looking for new political solutions to the situation. Germany needs new growth opportunities now that a no-deal Brexit is upon them.
This wasn’t that hard to see coming. Last summer’s garden summit between Vladimir Putin and Merkel set the stage for this shift in tone. I said at the time that I felt Trump’s belligerence was pushing Merkel into Putin’s arms.
Merkel, for her part, has been so terminally weakened by her immigration policy and strong-armed approach to dissent that this whirlwind weekender by Putin was as much for her benefit, politically, as his.
The implication being that if Merkel wants to stay in power with her weakening coalition and poll numbers it’s time for her to reverse course. And if that means cozying up to Russia then so be it.
Merkel will continue to talk a good game about Crimea and Ukraine while Putin will speak directly to the German people about ending the humanitarian crisis in Syria as a proxy for ending the threat of further immigration.
Rubber meet road. The times they are a’changin’.
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“controlling the flow and price of energy”
A while back I read that fracking was not popular and even outlawed in many countries (New York included) because of environmental concerns. Not sure what the current thinking is among those countries who do have ample reserves, nor do I know if fracking would deliver much otherwise unavailable crude and gas for their internal use.
Any oil guys/gals out there who know?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-from-u-s-fracking-is-more-volatile-than-expected-1403653344
The U.S. is the self-proclaimed champions of free markets but doesn’t want any free market competition. It will use the military to prevent any other nations from obtaining wealth or security before U.S. corporations drain all resources, like they want to do in Venezuela, to prevent any competition from other nations. The U.S. exist only for the sole benefit and existence of it’s corporate interest. It serves corporations over the will of the people at home and abroad. The North Atlantic Terrorist Organization should have been disbanded after the cold war, it is an obsolete institution.
Trump as well as his last few predecessors is an embarrassment to the office he holds; disdainful of the rights of ordinary people, the rule of law, and democratic values; a threat to world peace and freedom-loving people everywhere, including at home. He represents dark interests wanting planet earth colonized and controlled, all nations transformed into ruler/serf societies, enforced by militarized police state harshness – NATO serving as a global force against nonbelievers for the benefit of control of world resources and profit.
Trump campaigned against these very things, yet he did a 180 Judas Goat on Americans and the world. When it comes to foreign policy we voted for Trump and got Hillary instead.
I don’t care what anyone else says, Ned, you’re a good addition here on TBP.
Germany has a delusional national energy plan, for some crazy reason, they turned off all their nukes, after watching the GE reactors melt down in Fukishima. They want to virtue signal to the rest of the EU that they can go green and still be competitive industrial nation. In otherwords, they have their own “green new deal”. The German people pay more for electricity now, and yet, still require natural gas to ensure they meet baseload requirements of the grid.
so they can feel good about saving the air above their heads, while China will continue to burn coal for the next 50 years, negating their entire green energy agenda.
stupid, institutional idiocy.
This is the insanity of Leftist/Socialist.
If those are Merkel’s ideas, they sound like good one. If only she would reverse her policy of importing Muslims.
Does anyone remember what happened the last time Germany and Russia became “allies”? That little foray led to the deaths of about 27 million Russians, and about 7.4 million Germans.
Third time is a charm. Germany WILL win the next World War. Book it.
Yes, based on their birth rates, next time they will be railing against the kafirs, but they first have to stop eating pork and drinking beer, and will also have to learn how to use a squat WC and wipe their ass with the right hand.
If Germany engages in another war it will be against former Western allies with Muslim conscripts. Merkel has done everything she can do to re-make Germany into a socialist republic mirroring her former GDR home. She won’t be happy until the rest of Europe looks like Bosnia did after the breakup of the former Yugoslavia.
Wow. Where do I file this article?
— under the label, “Merkel grows balls!”
— or, “Another win for Trump?”
What a crock. Good luck Germany with those plans.
A European army??? Isn’t that what you call an oxymoron?
US occupation(?) of Germany? Super, cya later.
Stronger ties to Russia including becoming more energy dependent on them? Brilliant!
Meanwhile importing millions of low IQ moslims. Great idea Merkel, in fact we can see how peachy keen it’s working right now. Another decade, another couple million more low IQ moslims & Africans and give them time to really entrench themselves…yeah.
Fact is as Mark Sherman notes, “The root is the fact that the Europeans have decided to die demographically by not having children, plumping up their welfare state, pensions, and government benefits while lounging in cafes sipping plonk waiting to die.”
Don’t blame this shit on Trump.
And inviting in millions of rough unwashed masses looking for free shit.
For once I have to agree with Mrs. Merkel. US interference in the process of the destruction of Germany is totally unacceptable. Only the German political establishment has the legal right to destroy Germany and turn Germans into an ethnic minority in their historical (!) homeland and turn Germany into a third-world economy via destruction of its economy, infrastructure and education system. Any attempt by the US government at participating in this process will be met with fierce opposition. Anyhow, it is highly unlikely that the US could have a meaningful impact at this point in time. In a way, that train has left the station.
Regarding the controversial issue of national defence, Mrs. Merkel has found a very cost-effective solution. No increase in defence spending is necessary. Why would anybody invade a country, when you can just immigrate and apply for welfare? Gun lockers and parking spots for tanks at the borders would be helpful. It is this kind of out-of-the-box thinking that puts the traditional thinkers in the US military-industrial complex at odds with the forward-looking innovators in Europe.
The time has come for the US and Germany to go their own ways. Even if the the ultimate goal is the same, both countries have chosen different path to get there. Total ruin through military spending and unlimited immigration versus total ruin through green energy and unlimited immigration. Both nation can part ways in the knowledge that in the end they will be happily reunited when they reach their final destination.
European army without American blood and treasure? I need a good laugh.