Guest Post by The Zman
Not so long ago, societal collapse was a big topic of conversation among critics of the current world order. Usually it was centered on economics, as the financial system has become so complex that no one can explain it. The run-up to the mortgage crisis had lots of people promoting economic collapse theories. A decade earlier, the Y2K panic ushered in theories of technological collapse. Of course, the zombie apocalypse movies and TV shows are a regular part of the pop media rotation.
Societal collapse, however, is probably not in the cards. The best known treatment of the issue is by Joseph Tainter. In Collapse of Complex Societies, Tainter makes the point that collapse in the modern age is unlikely, as all complex societies are dependent on one another. Therefore, when one society begins to fail, the rest will provide support to prevent the rapid disintegration of the failing society. In other words, the modern age is a network of reciprocal relationships between complex societies.
In the case of America, the rest of the world needs America in order to remain intact, so a crisis in America will be met with a response from Europe, Asia and even South America. The internal response to crisis will include global support for repairing the internal problems of America. This network of relationships may not arrest the decline, but it will prevent collapse. The rest of the complex societies will ease America into the autumn of its existence, thus buying themselves time to adjust.
An alternative to this analysis comes from John Michael Greer. He wrote a paper on what he termed catabolic collapse. The general theory is that all human societies create complex institutions and social structures that require maintenance. Over time, the cost of maintaining them begins to exceed capacity. The solution is a deliberate downsizing where these complex systems are abandoned in order to focus resources on the core functions of society. Complex societies don’t collapse. They downsize.
Greer’s idea is a variation of the Tainter theory, in that it focuses on the material aspects of society. In the Tainter view, collapse is like bankruptcy that ends in a liquidation of the society. Greer’s view is a bankruptcy that leads to a reorganization of society going through bankruptcy, so it can reemerge simpler and more viable. In reality, both ideas are working from the same assumption. That is, human societies grow inefficient over time and that inefficiency eventually reaches a tipping point.
One issue that is a problem when discussing these theories of societal collapse is we tend to think of collapse as something that happens relatively quickly. That is, it happens not just in our lifetime, but overnight. One day things are going along just fine and the next day the wheels are coming off the cart. It is the image of Rome at its peak compared to the image of hairy barbarians scaling the walls. We naturally want to think of collapse as the sudden, unexpected death of society.
Collapse is most likely experienced in fits and starts, with those fits and starts spanning lifetimes. For example, the men who founded the American empire in the early 20th century passed out of this world seeing their creation in the throes of the cultural revolution of the 60’s and 70’s. The so-called greatest generation that inherited the empire from the founders, were re-engineering American society so their rotten kids would stop rioting in the street and burning the college campus.
The generation that founded the empire probably thought it was headed for collapse, but by that point they were too old to care. It did not collapse. American society stabilized, regained its footing and started to recover in the 1980’s and 1990’s, with the great economic and technological boom. Ironically, the baby boomers are experiencing what their grandparents experienced as they head for the void. They are seeing what appears to be the collapse of American society in a spasm of multicultural rage.
A half century ago, California was the epicenter of the cultural revolution that threatened to collapse society. It is the test bed for the multicultural favela the rage heads in the ruling class have planned for the nation. Today, they have rolling blackouts in a third world effort to keep from setting the state on fire. Their efforts to manage air pollution, a great crusade in the 1860’s and 1970’s, is beginning to fail. Their pension system is effectively bankrupt, just waiting to collapse in the next decade.
In other words, the spasm of decline and near collapse of a half century ago was part of a cycle of decline. This crisis will probably be followed by some correction, where things settle for a while, but never return to the prior normal. Just as the 1980’s never reached the level of social accomplishment of the post-war years, the next period of tranquility will fall far short of the 1980’s and 1990’s. It will simply be an interregnum between one period of crisis and the next, another step down the ladder of collapse.
At some point, the old social capital of the prior greatness is exhausted. The Romans were a spent people for over century before the collapse. In fact, they were arguably done in the third century. The real question about the late Roman Empire is how it managed to stagger on for so long. That may be where we are now in present day America. The next step down the ladder of decline may be so unstable that the weight of past error crashed society through to the bottom.
The case for this theory of collapse is the rapidly shrinking white middle-class. It’s not just shrinking as an economic institution, but as a cultural one. The dominant culture today is one that celebrates degeneracy and barbarism. Bourgeois culture remains, but unlike the 1980’s, it is not front and center, offering a stabilizing point to arrest the cultural turmoil of the day. The antidote to what’s happening today is not a man in a sundress demanding the rest of us pretend he is a girl.
In addition to the shrinking influence of bourgeois white culture, there is the growing sense that what’s left of America is not worth saving. Everyday, more and more white people come to the conclusion that the people they see in politics, the media and popular culture are incompatible with the world they want for themselves and their decedents. That old bourgeois white culture is looking at America like the family exhausted by an alcoholic relative. It’s time to cut our losses.
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This is an interesting idea. In many ways, this is probably what the Obamination was tasked with: managing the decline of America into 3rd world status. And this notion is plausible, however I think Zman is underestimating the potential for a full blown collapse.
If a solar flare or EMP blew our power grid, there is NO coming back from that. Ditto for any large country also hit. It would literally mean a 90%+ die off in the affected areas. I could also see a massive pandemic having similar effects if vital services fail and there isn’t anyone to fix them.
A financial collapse would be world wide, due to the interconnected nature. Every nation will have its own similar issues to deal with. This catastrophe may or may not entail appocolypse, but it would mean a massive reset of the world order and the powerful elites.
Great write up. People do tend to see the collapse as something that more or less happens overnight. Maybe thats because when you see so many real world examples of just how broken things are you can’t help but wonder how the wheels on the bus keep rolling but roll they do…….. for now.
Perhaps there is always a certain segment of society that sees all the wrongs and can’t see any other outcome than worst case. I for one don’t believe there is anything worth preserving of this current government and much of society. There are so many people who have not and never will be of any value leeching off of those that do provide value that it just seems at some point those that do are just going to say piss on it why bother.
How much longer will this completely unsustainable nonsense continue? Well I guess we will see.
Obviously it’s a matter of proximity and perspective. Sure, the consequences of collapses materialize over time, but to the person who is about to be evicted from their home, things will seem more imminent. And to the homeless person looking for food, even more imminent.
I remember a lady I had done business with in Louisiana. Months after Katrina hit she told me that it was still worse there than anyone knew because the news had stopped covering it. A short time after that she moved and I lost track of her. Gone, baby, gone. And she’s still gone.
Very likely, it will be like that.
Definition of collapse:
I took this opportunity to play this song, which I love and which may or may not be relevant. But, it is all relative.
You said “Gone, baby, Gone…” that triggered it.
Mags,
That was quite the entertaining tune. I enjoyed that.
However, I guess I was thinking more along the lines of Venezuela.
How The State Will Strip You Of Your Rights When SHTF – The state will rip you off, but it doesn’t happen all of a sudden
Gone, baby, gone.
Hmmm, reminded me of Montgomery Gentry “Gone”.
The coming crash is not a natural consequence of Christianity, Capitalism, or Democracy per se; it is Socialism and Cultural Communism engineered by the Oligarchs to bring on Chaos so they can implement their Demonic New World Order (Ref Rev 13:16,17). The Democrats care nothing about Truth, Justice and the American Way; they care about their Perversions (as it was in the Days of Noah) and FSA Freebees.
democracy has been integral to the decay.
It’s a result of overpopulation and depleted energy and resources.
Surely it begins slowly overtime gaining momentum, ebbing and falling cyclically, gaining greater frequncy, amplitude and duration similar to birthing contractions, and then one day the stresses become too great and something has to give somewhere.
Then depending on the ability of society to absorb the blow the cycle either begins again or one day possibly just doesn’t apart from a much greater correction.
He’s all over the place with this one.
Human societies are more akin to forests and coral reefs than it is to ideological or political structures. Those things are ideas- they exist only in our minds and our collective agreement to participate in these forms. Once something happens to that agreement that negates the manifest reality of human construction it can disappear literally overnight- think of a collapsed currency or the military defeat of a nation. The organisms that make up societies/forests and reefs often live on long after the system itself has ceased to exist-for example the people who lived in Europe during the post-Roman era. The artifacts of those societies often camouflage the actual collapse so that it appears to limp along even though it is no longer in existence. Language, institutions, tools and technologies are easily picked up by people who share nothing whatsoever with the creators of those systems and forms but that doesn’t mean the society that created them is still extant.
Societies are made up of peoples- unique, tribal at the formative stages and utterly unfettered by the lives and deaths of multitudes of generations as long as they remain cohesive, tied by blood and rooted to soil. Once the borders become porous either through policies of empire-the late stage of successful cultures- or conquest and the people are replaced, that society or culture no longer exists except as a shell, in appearance rather than in reality.
“…time to cut our losses.” Ok. What does that mean? How exactly do white people cut their losses? Living off the grid sounds nice and is probably rewarding but most can’t do that? Moving to another country? Not a good option. Withdrawing from society, in general? Again, you are just waiting to be ‘found’ and abused in some manner.
I am not casting stones. I just need a real answer…. if there is one.
One option: http://www.northwestfront.org/
I’ll just cross post my comment from his site:
“An alternative to this analysis comes from John Michael Greer. He wrote a paper on what he termed catabolic collapse. The general theory is that all human societies create complex institutions and social structures that require maintenance. Over time, the cost of maintaining them begins to exceed capacity. The solution is a deliberate downsizing where these complex systems are abandoned in order to focus resources on the core functions of society. Complex societies don’t collapse. They downsize.”
—
What we’re actually seeing is the opposite of this. Those useful ‘core functions’ of society are being sacrificed to prop up the useless peripheral parts of it.
as has been pointed out, in the Kentucky, Louisiana and other southern gubernatorial races (weak) republican contestants won the american [white] vote by 50 points but either won the election by less than 1% or lost overall. excluding the consideration of voter fraud.
when the system no longer reflects the will of your people, what’s the value in keeping or playing along with the system?
HSF or Mark (or anyone else with knowledge on the following),
I’m having an extremely tedious, repetitive issue with deer during rutting. I’m trying to grow living fences, but they can’t exactly grow when the cretins “go deer”, as Chris Rock would say. I desperately need your advice because they continue to destroy my beautiful cryptomerias, landscaping, you name it. We’re looking to fence the front with 4 rail farm fence and woven wire. The sides and back would be steel Ts with wooden stretch points and woven wire. Woven wire is Red Brand. All would be 4′ tall.
Inside the fencing, which we extended a bit to 2.5 acres for a good-sized run, we are looking to get 2 dogs. We can’t afford to fence more acreage in at this time. As it is, all of my disposable income is going into this endeavor.
Questions for you gentlemen:
1. What are good dog breeds to get for orchards, meaning dogs who won’t dig the shit out of my drip lines?
2. Do you guys think 4′ tall fencing WITH dogs is sufficient to keep deer from “going deer” within the fencing?
3. Can I remove the redundancy cages around the fruit trees?
I don’t understand how so many of these deer huggers exist in this world…they are so damn overpopulated to the point that they do SERIOUS damage to my local ecosystem.
Please advise, need help here because I am losing my mind! Thanks so much for your time and consideration!
The right dogs- you should always have more than one for best function as security and as a deterrent to wildlife- and fencing is immaterial. Most deer can clear a 4 foot fence no problem so don’t count on that to keep them out if you go that route. With good dogs though it’s probably enough of boundary as you’ll need. Of course I don’t know where you are or what your deer populations are like, too much pressure from large herd size in a small area might be harder to deal with than anything we face.
The smarter the dog breed, the more use you’ll get out of them. I prefer Aussies, border collies and kelpies and have always had at least three so they can work on different tasks at the same time or as a pack against predators and they are extremely effective at pretty much everything I throw at them. And the older they get, the better they get at it. A friend has Karelian Bear dogs and having watched them work I’m pretty sure they’re just as good if not better than my own especially when it comes to protecting the homestead against anything that you want to keep out. Picking the right breed for you is more important than any specific trait of course, but you wouldn’t want to use something like a retriever or a bird dog.
Dogs want to please you, it’s hardwired. Let them no what you don’t want them to do- like digging- and they will studiously avoid anything that makes you unhappy with them.
Too many deer is a good problem to have, managing them is just another part of the agrarian life. Have fun with it!
HSF, thank you sir! I don’t know a lot about good farm dogs so this gives me some fodder to research even more. A 4′ fence in and of itself from all the research I’ve done is no challenge for a deer, like you said. I’m hoping it will herd them a different direction a percentage of the time, and 2-3 dogs will serve as a good enough deterrent for the bolder ones.
I don’t like mechanical enclosures, but I need it to give time to the locusts, bayberries and cryptomerias to survive rubbing. Plus it can enclose the dogs until then.
You gave me a positive boost and for that I am grateful, as that is what I needed more than anything. I was infuriated this afternoon when my son and I came back from Lowe’s and saw my cryptos ripped up. I don’t even understand when they did it because I am outside almost all of the time…
Open up a Lowe’s Pro account and have them deliver everything you need.
Carry on…
I have been slacking on this…wifey keeps telling me to open up an account for our LLC.
The ditches alongside the roads where i grew up were 4 feet deep. I saw one deer, from a standing start, jump from the bottom of a ditch and over a 3+ foot fence running alongside the ditch.
AOC.
Deer fencing is more likley to hurt your feelings and pocket book than hurt the deer. Get dogs that aren’t known for wandering or traveling. It will make enemies out of friends. Hounds and unknown breeds from the pound are iffy.
My wife and I had our 10 acres of paradise south of tuscon and needed dogs to keep the range cows from knocking things down and eating the goat hay and chicken feed when we were gone. I got the finest dog I ever knew from the pound. A chow/Border Collie. 90 pounds of devotion and honesty. He was a city dog from denver and had never had a job and was 4 years old. I taught him in two days how to run the cows off which was the good news. the bad news is his parents were both working breeds bred for doing a job well. He did it so well he would chase them all the way back to the ranch 6 miles away. Teaching him to stop at the property line took way more than 2 days. Just sayin.
I loathe the way unnatural enclosures look and have been fighting one for a damn long time now. The deer population is insanely heavy where we are and I am at my wit’s end, Flea. I swear to God, I have worked on some of the most complex hardware in the world and have never had a problem vex me the way the deer in my neck of the woods do. NEVER! They have beaten me every single time.
I’ve tried fishing line in the woods, which worked for a couple of months. I’ve hung 6 mil crawl space vapor barrier strips on poles near the trees. I’ve tried mini-windmills on 5 foot poles. I’ve planted distasteful flora that they don’t eat, but instead rub to the ground. I’ve used Plantskydd which works for a month or so. The population here needs to be halved and the bag limits are stupidly conservative.
I appreciate HSF’s upbeat outlook on these hoofed rodents but they are destructive monsters. 🙂
Oh Flea, the other thing I was thinking about with the fence was it helping to contain free range chickens and any other livestock we may or may not get. I’m trying to kill about 5 birds with one stone here, but I need you guys to keep poking holes in all of my ideas. I can’t tell you how much it’s appreciated just letting me vent!
AOC.
Hunger is the mother of invention with the animal kingdom. I would be concerned this winter. If it’s bad they will be more daring. I liken it to keeping birds off cherries. Is hunting allowed in your county? doesn’t sound like it.
It is, and the Wildlife guys came out and said they would write me a permit. They saw how bad the predation was. My community is tight-knit and my neighbors are eager to make use of a year-round permit on my property if need be. We’re in a conservative region in middle TN…the problem is that all of the assholes from Illinois, Minnesota, and California are moving here and driving up property values. I want my property to be worth nothing, meaning no one lives near me!
We have another 275 acre dairy farm being sold off, likely to be converted into another neighborhood. So that drives the deer onto my property, the 500 acres behind me, and the 50 acres to the side of me. My country road is like a damn wildlife preserve, sir. I was in such a fit of frustration this afternoon…Flea, the last guy hunting on my property said there was a herd of at least 50 down in the valley behind my house (easterly), another dozen or so bedding to the southerly side. I know that sounds great, but not to an orchardist! They appear to be having a rubbing contest between the bucks I’ve seen.
Don’t appologize for being right. It’s not great to have that many deer or even worse, that many Yuppies ruining the countryside. They made property in Mt skyrocket. The first thing they want is streetlights and sewers and water. Maybe you should get a permit and shoot the yuppies and leave the deer. Deer come out at night so your dogs will have to be outdoor dogs.
Hahahaha so true! The yuppies don’t dare get too close to my filthy dirty neighbors and me. The old man across the street, the guy fixing my tractor for me, looks like Billy Gibbons from ZZ Top. They stay in their million dollar homes in their little enclaves…we all stay in our 40 year old rambler farmsteads. Fine by me!
Yet another reason I want the fencing…I want a gate across my driveway so I grant people access. I’m a hermit!
Me too. Cherish my time alone. Hope you get a viable solution going soon.
This is what I like about TBP: practical discussion and solutions to common problems.
This mountain town had had enough and took action:
A similar problem vexed the British 170 years ago. :
I am reminded that when sparrows invaded the Crystal Palace, Queen Victoria asked the Duke of Wellington for a remedy. “Sparrowhawks, Ma’am,” he replied: as true today as it was in 1851.
Agio.
Re mountain town. Heaven forbid they just let everyone eat all the deer they want. Instead, they capture or buy 50 nuetered, collared mountain lions and set them loose in town. that’s a town with too many tax dollars to waste and too many idiots to spend it. Keep the deer and nueter the residents before they spread out.
A 4 foot fence will stop deer if a strand is used to widen the horizontal plane. Say a strand that is three feet high is extended away from the post with a bracket. Deer have poor depth perception and avoid jumping things that have a width that they can’t determine. A modified fence is a cheaper and easier option than dogs.
Hey Anon, possibly a stupid question but I want to ensure I understand you completely. Due to the visual acuity of the hoofed rodents, they have depth perception issues. Makes sense, if for no other reason than the location of their empty-headed eyes. Should I place the bracket and wiring on the interior or exterior side of the fence, or does it even matter? I’m assuming exterior, because it fools the deer into thinking there are multiple fences?
Along the lines of what Anonymous relates, I ran two 4′ fences in parallel, about 3′ apart, having heard that the deer would be put off by anything they thought they might get their feet tangled up in. Outer fence has a couple of wire strands on a solar charger; inner fence is just a single rope. We haven’t had any problems after 3 years. There is a deer wintering area elsewhere on our property, but nowhere near the kind of population you report.
Sounds like you and a couple other folks have had success with near identical methods.
I have 16 raised beds in a field and 50 acres beyond that and lots more beyond that. Never had a fence. I have two German Shepherds which I run out there on the acreage twice a day for half an hour each. Seems to deter the deer. They give good chase when we happen upon them. When I see a deer or sign I let them out to roam for a bit and they chase them off and always come back, as they are herding dogs. Extremely loyal, and bond to one person, but love the whole family (pack) and want to please you to the nth degree. That said, mine just hate other dogs, so there is an issue there. But more training and socialization could change that, but I don’t care.
How about harvesting them? I love me some venison!
CO2, I’m not a hunter, I just want to grow fruit trees with minimal disruption. Not that I am opposed to it in the least, it’s just that I don’t have the time for it. Hell, I’d like to mount a .50 on my roof and just let a hunter mow them down out of pure spite. Spiced venison jerky is the best, and incredibly healthy.
Hire your neighbors to hunt them – charge one leg per kill and the hunter gets the rest. Make it a profit center if you can!
AoC,
Here is what has worked for me in my orchard.
1. I ran three 100 ft. ele. cords together from my barn to an old bar stool in the orchard, put a bucket on its side duct taped to the stool, and put a radio in the bucket. Played music and talk radio all night. Moved the stool every couple of days at dusk.
2. I put four of these below around the orchard.
3. I draped netting over the top of some trees and berry bushes.
4. I tied aluminum pie plates with twine hanging on tree branches. They spin and bang in the wind.
5. This works too: you will have to replace it every month or two.
Use VHS Tape to Deter Deer
https://www.motherearthnews.com/organic-gardening/gardening-techniques/garden-deer-fence-zm0z11zhun
I also ran it inbetween the trees in the woods at the tree line before they got into the orchard.
GOOD LUCK!
Spend $200k on hunting land. Spend 25k making roads and green fields. Get hunting permits. See no deer. Try and start an orchard 50 decide to live in a valley and eat your orchard. Sounds about right.
HS i will be leaning on you soon also. We got our 110 acres elsewhere, but i am now leaving this suburban hell and onto 23 acres. Close in december move in feb. Would love to get your contact info again.
Good for you, best move you’ll ever make.
[email protected]
Any time.
HSF, hope you won’t mind and I will rarely ever bother you, but I look to all of your, Mark’s and Flea’s posts for tidbits of advice. Just wanted to verify with you that you wouldn’t mind like an every 3 month question or so. 🙂
A lot of people believe that anything that happens online is either false or some kind of scam and that the people in an online community are somehow less of a community than any other. I have met more decent, kind and interesting people through this blog than I have in real life and more than half of them have actually taken the time to stop by for a visit and have become friends in the meat world.
I didn’t know anything when we moved here- not saying I do now, but what little I have picked up I will share with anyone who is interested as long as you pass it along to someone else.
1). Buy a large deep freezer
2) place deer inside new large deep freezer
Guys, I am eternally grateful for ALL of the advice above! I love Jim for providing this site!
I was so down in the dumps yesterday afternoon. I am trying to figure out what the Father is trying to teach me on this one and maybe it was to ask for advice…I am stubborn and do NOT like to do that.
God bless all of you, especially Flea and HSF for giving me a boost. I pondered on something Doug said a long time ago, about how persistence separates winners from losers and oftentimes we are so close when we quit.
Won’t work–not near tall enough
Deer will jump a 10′ fence (if straight vertical). Deer were jumping my 8′ fence. I put up 8′ t-posts with 4′ sheep fencing. Then I took 4′ pieces of rebar and bent them midway at about a 45 degree angle. I u-bolted (welding would be better) the rebar to the top of t-posts, so that the angled portion extended outward. I then ran 4 wires roughly evenly spaced between the top of the sheep fencing and the tip of the rebar. Looks a bit like a security fence, but that kept the deer out. Deer can gauge height. They have a problem with gauging depth. I’ve since heard that if you run a 4′ fence with a one wire (fence) offset 3′ in from the outer fence, the deer won’t attempt to jump it. I have had some problems with the corner t-posts pulling out of the ground, so I will be replacing those with some cedar trees that I can sink 4′ down. If I were to do it again, I’d use cedar trees at least every other post. Much more stable and rugged.
Also, there is such a thing as a nuisance permit which allows you to hunt deer when they are damaging your trees.
Awesome, you inadvertently answered my question to Anonymous above. Thanks!
I had a problem with the deer jumping the fence. I cured it with an electrified two strand fence 4 feet out from the woven wire fence.
I used that ribbon type of electrical fencing. A little smear of peanut butter on the ribbon every 6 feet or so. Deer love peanut butter. They absolutely hate the shock. They now give the garden a wide berth.
I hunt on an organic farm. The farmer has a 5 strand fence, about 5 feet high. the second and fourth strands are electrified. The fence runs down the side of a 40. It acts as a barrier to deer, in 2 years of hunting I’ve only seen 3 deer cross it and they were in a panic from something. All the other deer go down the side till they get past it and parade past me.