Guest Post by Jim Kunstler
It was only a few decades ago that Walmart entered the pantheon of American icons, joining motherhood, apple pie, and baseball on the highest tier of the alter. The people were entranced by this behemoth cornucopia of unbelievably cheap stuff packaged in gargantuan quantities. It was something like their participation trophy for the sheer luck of being born in this exceptional land, or having valiantly clawed their way in from wretched places near and far — where, increasingly, the mighty stream of magically cheap stuff was manufactured.
The evolving psychology of Walmart-ism had a strangely self-destructive aura about it. Like cargo cultists waiting on a jungle mountaintop, small town Americans prayed and importuned the gods of commerce to bring them a Walmart. Historians of the future, pan-frying ‘possum cutlets over their campfires, will marvel at the potency of their ancestors’ prayers. Every little burg in the USA eventually saw a Walmart UFO land in the cornfield or cow-pasture on the edge of town. Like the space invaders of sci-fi filmdom, Walmart quickly killed off everything else of economic worth around it, and eventually the towns themselves. And that was where things stood as the long emergency commenced in the winter of early 2020, along with the Covid-19 corona virus riding shotgun on the hearse-wagon it rolled in on.
We’re in a liminal, transitional moment of history, like beach-goers gawking at the glassy-green curve of a great wave in the throes of breaking. Such mesmerizing beauty! Alas, most people can’t surf. It looks easy on TV, but you’d be surprised at the conditioning it takes, and Americans are way, way out of condition. (All those tattoos don’t give you an ounce of extra mojo.) And so, in this liminal moment, the people still trudge dutifully to the Walmarts with their dwindling reserves of cash money to get stuff, going through all the devotions that we took for granted before the wave welled up and threatened to break over us.
Which is happening. Despite all the fake-heroic blather from the Federal Reserve, from Nancy Pelosi, from Mr. Trump and Mr. Mnuchin — from everybody in charge, to be really fair — and in the immortal words of another recent president — this sucker is going down. Specifically, what’s going down is the aggregate of transactions we call “the economy.” Meanwhile, the people in charge struggle to prop up the mere financial indexes that supposedly represent economic activity, but more and more just look like a shadow play on the wall of some special slum where the street-corner economists peddle their crack. Eventually, the people don’t even have money for the crack, and to make matters worse, whatever money actually remains on the street is worthless.
The wave is breaking now, and a lot of things will be smashed under it — are getting smashed as you read. As in any extinction event, it will be the smaller organisms that survive and eventually thrive and that’s how it will go in the next edition of America, whether we remain states united or find ourselves organized differently. Accordingly, the giants must fall. When the communities of America rebuild, it will be the thousands of small activities that matter, because they will entail the rebuilding of social capital as well as exchanges that amount to business. Social capital is exactly what Walmart and things like it killed in every community from sea to shining sea. People stopped doing business with their neighbors. It took a cataclysm for them to finally notice
If you think Walmart will survive the same cataclysm that’s killing chain-store retail generally, you’re going to be disappointed. Everything about it is over and done, including the Happy Motoring adjunct that allowed the cargo-cultists to haul their booty those many miles home. (And, ironically, it wasn’t the oil issue that determined this, but the end of the financing system that allowed Americans to buy their cars on installment loans, when it ran out of credit-worthy borrowers.) Amazon will be the last giant standing perhaps, but it will go down, too, eventually, on its ridiculous business model, which depends utterly on a doomed trucking system. It will be like the last dinosaur roaring at the dimming sun — while the little proto-mammals skitter to their hidey-holes beneath it.
One thing remains constant: human beings are very adept and resourceful at supplying each other’s needs, which is what business amounts to. Young people, freed from the fate of becoming serfs to corporate giants, can start right now at least imagining what they can do to be useful others in exchange for a livelihood. The earnest and energetic will find a way to do that at a scale that makes sense when a new order emerges from the wreckage. After a while, it won’t matter much what any government thinks about it, either. Like all the other giants, it will fall, too.
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His writing has never been what you would call “magesterial”, but today it does approach.
His writing has never been what you would call “magesterial”, but today it does approach.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/magisterial
and I disagree, but there’s the word you were looking for.
I think I spelled that wrong. I hate it when that happens.
JHK has been predicting the exact same doom, in the same way, with the same repetitive phrases for decades now. And we’re not at “it” yet.
Undoubtedly our overall economy is well and fucked. But a handful of mega-corporations like Walmart and Amazon are likely to survive, for now at least, through both efficiency and sheer size, the latter bringing political power of all sorts and a sort of momentum.
If you want to see our future – and really you don’t – look at the various countries that were once prosperous and are now 2nd tier at best, then add in an end-of-empire drama. Argentina is probably the closest, and Mexico isn’t as far off as you would like, but our scale is so vast that they are merely a hint, not a direct model.
Persnik,in a way we are also like Argentina in that once we accept we do not need junk the country and it’s resources can supply our real needs.
At one snapshot in time Argentina was as wealthy as the US per capita.
But I think we’re mostly alike in the fact that they have for decades practiced “socialism isn’t working, let’s do socialism harder,” and the USA is doing that same thing right now. Decent people will work around and in spite of government, not with its help. And political risk will be as significant as most other risks.
Persnickety, I like Kunstler and greatly enjoy his prose, but I think your vision of our future is more likely than Jim’s. The only chance Kunstler’s vision will come to pass is if the federal government collapses. Powerful people will do anything, including killing all their own people to maintain power. Thus, I think the last thing to sink into the dark hole of history is the US government, unfortunately.
The Federal Government IS the United States. It is like the communist party in that respect. Largest employer in US? The Federal Government. The controller of almost everything and the holder of all power.
At what point in time are you referring? Argentina is the only country in the world to have defaulted on their bonds multiple times…4x in total I believe. That is the furthest thing from a prosperous example.
You are showing your young age. At one period of considerable time in the 20th century, Argentina was one of the most prosperous countries on Earth. The phrase, “rich as an Argentine” was quite popular.
Argentina even had aircraft carriers after WW2 .
People like you will be the downfall of the USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
But I’m sure you will tell us that “real socialism has never been tried,” or something equally dumb.
Eight times as of today. Nevertheless, the country is so resource rich (except, perhaps, for human resources), that those of us in rural areas are doing quite well in many respects. True, the peanut butter distributor hasn’t been around lately, but peanuts can be had and one can make one’s own.With all due respect to outside visions of Argentina, the country always comes back. If we in the geographic center could rid ourselves of Buenos Aires and environs, we’d be far more “prosperous” in an economic sense than many places and in an existential sense far more than much of the USA. The folks here quickly adapt to adverse circumstances and find work-arounds. Argentina was once economically prosperous because it was in a favorable position during world wars agriculturally speaking; it has never been a particularly prosperous manufacturing nation. We’re a lot closer to Mr K’s “world made by hand” than anyplace> in the USA or even the northern hemisphere, think I.
This time people will be forced to get real skills.PARTY IS OVER.PRODUCE OR DIE trying.
Darwin, Ch. 5/Paragraph 8.
Hello,
the over 60 crowd/over 70 more, are not going to be producing in the commerce
arena. A few of those have some resources to help support them and even
skills to pass along.
I think .gov will remain in place for as long as possible and we will see tyrants
rule. The war machine will kick into action before those guys give up.
Several states, including mine and Jim Quinn’s, already have tyrants ruling.
With all due respect, some of us over 70s can still be quite productive.
Not only will giants muate and survive they will get gianter.
I sure wish he had expanded on his most important comment…
“which depends utterly on a doomed trucking system.”
I haven’t heard anything about a doomed trucking system.
Can anyone fill in?
JHK wills it to be so, thus it is so.
Seriously, that’s his argument style.
I imagine he is indirectly referring to peak oil / oil availability problems and related road-maintenance issues. There is some basis for questioning the future of trucking, but to agree with this little essay you have to be in the JHK cult, which has a current population of around… one.
For vastly more intelligent analysis of such things, check out https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Outstanding essay. My daughter and her husband lived in Manhattan. They had to work their asses off just to eke by. Now living with us in the country they’ve never been happier. They know a bunch of their friends still there who are fleeing the city. It can’t die soon enough for me. It does support Kunstler’s vision. Let’s all hope so. Especially the gone government part.