Submitted by Doctor de Vaca
Goldilocks will not be pleased. Texas power prices infamously exploded higher during the frigid temperatures of the February winter storm that crippled so much of the state; and this time, amid blisteringly hot temperatures, Texas power prices are exploding higher once again as The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) asks Texans to reduce electric use as much as possible today through Friday, June 18.
ERCOT issued the following Conservation Alert:
A significant number of forced generation outages combined with potential record electric use for the month of June has resulted in tight grid conditions.
Generator owners have reported approximately 11,000 MW of generation is on forced outage for repairs; of that, approximately 8,000 MW is thermal and the rest is intermittent resources. According to the summer Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy, a typical range of thermal generation outages on hot summer days is around 3,600 MW. One MW typically powers around 200 homes on a summer day.
“We will be conducting a thorough analysis with generation owners to determine why so many units are out of service,” said ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson. “This is unusual for this early in the summer season.”
According to generation owners, the number of outages should decrease throughout the week.
Wind output for today is expected to be 3,500 to 6,000 MW between 3 and 9 p.m. This is roughly 1,500 MW lower than what is typically available for peak conditions. Wind output is expected to increase as the week goes on.
Today’s peak load forecast may exceed 73,000 MW. The peak demand record for June is 69,123 MW set on June 27, 2018 between 4 and 5 p.m.
Please take these simple actions to help reduce electric use:
- Set your thermostat to 78 degrees or higher – every degree of cooling increases your energy use by six to eight percent.
- Turn off lights and pool pumps and avoid using large appliances like ovens, washing machines and dryers.
- If you don’t need something – we are asking you to turn it off and unplug it if possible.
This sent power prices spiking with SPGlobal.com reporting that Real-time locational marginal prices across major ERCOT zones topped $1,000/MWh around 1:30 pm CT, and reached almost $2,000/MWh around 2:15 pm CT, the current systemwide cap.
ERCOT spokeswoman Leslie Sopko said during a media call that as of 2:30 pm CT, the total capacity offline in forced outage was 12,178 MW offline, of which 9,066 MW was for thermal resources, while the remainder was for renewable resources. The total offline is three to four times what would typically be on forced outage during summer peak hours.
During that call, Warren Lasher, ERCOT senior director of system planning, said, “it’s unclear why we are seeing so many unplanned outages right now.” Less than 500 MW of the generation on outage is out for long-term maintenance issues, he said.
Some of the lost capacity appears related to derating – meaning generation is producing less than its nameplate capacity due to weather, mechanical, or fuel issues – but Lasher said he had heard of no problems with fuel delivery associated with this event.
Once again “renewables” are just not up to it as wind generation is reportedly playing a notable role in helping to push prices up, with average wind generation for June 15 predicted to tumble 28.8% to 3.5 GWh from about 4.9 GWh forecast for April 14. Despite the lower wind forecast, “wind output is expected to increase as the week goes on,” according to ERCOT.
And given the response from one Texas resident and long-time friend of ZH: “All I know is that I’m heading home and just absolutely cranking up my AC. Fuck ‘em!”
We suspect prices will be going higher given the weather forecast for the rest of the week/.
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So why now is the Texas power gird having all these issues?
My guess is too many people.
Because Bitcoin mining is draining the electric grid. A lot mining companies moved into Texas for the cheap energy prices. I’ve lived in Texas off and on for my whole life and not once has there been a risk of power outages in the summer.
Just finished installation of a whole house generator with 500 gal propane. Installer said at our level of energy consumption we could milk that for four weeks. And now adding to that an emergency solar system to run freezers and refrigerators should that fail. What’s happening to this country is beyond crazy. Prepare accordingly… Chip
Except, you’ll have alot of friends if that comes to pass.
How big of a solar system did you install?
I bought a 200W panel with 400 watt inverter and set it up charging a single 12V deep cycle marine battery. I have been playing around with it to see what it can handle. I mostly use it for recharging all of my tool batteries and running a couple of lights in my shop.
A 2 kw system should keep a couple freezers/ frig, lights and such running without much problems. You will need a decent batter bank for that. I would think 4 (8 if you go 48 v) L16 trojans should do. We use to live in middle TN and you want to plan on 4 days without sun there. You could most likely get by with 1.2 kw worth of panels, but they are cheap now. I use to run my garage on a 1.2 kw system with 8 Sam’s Club 6 V batteries and a 3000 watt inverter (also doubled as a chick raising station). The batteries where the way under powered for the system.
Also lithium batteries would be the way to go if you plan on living off grid, but would be better all the way around.
I’ve had a 7kw 48v system with 24 Surrete-Rolls batteries for 9 years and haven’t had an electric bill in all that time time. Most people who bad-mouth solar don’t understand it and repeat what they’ve heard or read somewhere else
No to be too personal, what region do you live in and do you run AC? When we purchase a home I wanted to put a larger system up, but was not sure what size it would take to run AC.
I live in central MO ozarks, a Missouri Ronald(MO RON) as my friends from PA say. I run three window units as needed in two bedrooms and the kitchen/ livingroom. In the summer with 15 hrs. of daylight my batteries go into float by 10AM and the panels just sit there so I fire up the AC to give them something to do.A whole house system is an energy hog. The condenser on even a 3 ton unit pulls about 19 amps at 240v which is pretty steep not counting the air handler blower. The two bedroom units pull 500w and the kitchen pulls 800w at 120v. We also have an outdoor kitchen on a screen porch for summer cooking and canning to eliminate excess heat indoors. My kids say that I am the only dad they know that says “Turn on that AC we need to use that power”. I heat with a whole house wood burning furnace and that blower uses 300w.
Thanks, that was some helpful information.
So a future where millions plug in their electric cars will work out ok.
100’s of millions.
I was going to joke about it being bitcoin mining…
Most electric companies have special “demand charges” for high energy users and they implement them in times of high demand. The cost to mine for bitcoin could get very expensive this summer.
My guess it’s a precursor to Cyber Polygon which is fast approaching; colonial pipe line, jbs and now Texas grid.
Because wind and solar suck when you really need them! High demand situation and there is very little if any reserve capacity from oil/coal/nuclear/gas fired power plants. Not hard to figure out….these idiots are bowing to the god of Climate Change and getting rid of the fossil fuel energy sources that work!
I think a large part of the problem is the massive influx of new residents and development. We are seeing similar issues on the water/wastewater side with excessive demand pushing treatment plants to the limits. Where I work we cannot build the plants fast enough to keep up with development.
Number of factors at work here. Waaay too many people pouring into the state, everywhere out here are hundred of thousands of subdivisions springing up like poisonous toadstools after a heavy rain. The only part of Texas not being overrun is the West Texas desert. The drain on resources is phenomenal, especially water.
Then you have the massive push for ‘renewables’ that only work if the wind is blowing or the sun is shining and those power grid fluctuations mess up the power generation stations. Texas has nat gas out the rear and yet they put in those ghastly bird killing windmill fields, hundreds of thousands of them, and the only reason they exist is because of billions in ‘subsidies’ because they really aren’t capable of producing enough power to fuel much of anything. Sorry but wind and solar dont’ work for large scale production.
Then you have ERCOT. A mismanaged organization of massive proportion. They wanted folk to conserve because so many plants were offline due to ‘maintenance’ issues. The real reason for all this is because Texas’ grid isn’t tied to the Fed grid and that can’t be allowed to stand.
Alternative energy–i.e. unproductive but expensive energy–has to be part of the cause here…
Texas does have a DC tie to the grid, which effectively segregates them from the rather fragile grid’s problems…
Texans a few months ago: “Waaa! It’s so cold!!”
Texans today: “Waaa! It’s so hot!!”
Suck it up, Texans!! Stop playing Goldilocks.
I do believe New Jersey is the perfect place for you to call home…😂
If people really wanted to conserve energy, they’d turn off their TV’s and stop listening to this bullshit.
We never had power problems until ERCOT.
Surely you don’t think Central Planning is the problem, do you? Government and bureaucracies know what is best for you.
What is going on? It’s not even hot yet.
The shituation exists because only the “best and brightest” (read: politically connected, wealthy, and powerful) are planning, designing, building and managing the Texas power grid. The graft for the gig must also be Texas-sized gargantuan.
“ERCOT Vice President of Grid Planning and Operations Woody Rickerson.”
It sounds like Woody has not been doing much grid planning. I’m sure he makes well into 6 figures for all the planning he performs.
The envirofascists should all be banned from using air conditioning, cars, and airplanes. Most of all, they should never be allowed to have carbon spewing children.
Since CO2 is sooo bad, they simply MUST stop exhaling. Inhaling is ok.
Most of the comments here don’t have a clue. Global Warming regulations are a part of the problem. During the freeze we could have provided more energy but the Feds said NO. It would cause too much CO2. And to produce that extra energy the power companies would have had to buy ‘Carbon Credits’ at a premium. And ERCOT is a bunch of scamming MoFos. During the Omama (puke) administration lots of coal plants were shut down after installing scrubbers in the smoke stacks that would make the emissions much cleaner. And on and on and on. And yes – I do live in Texas.
So, if the Feds say no,, the State says yes, do it. As long as our state politicians continue to act as pass through agents for the federales, it won’t change.
Agree. Most don’t quite get what you are saying. But sending taxes to the fedgod for their skim and then distributed back to the states is fucking mindless.
This is not unusual. But yes, too much green energy bullshit. The winds are basically calm over the last few days and stupid ass windmills aren’t doing much. I live 5 miles from a coal plant and it just chugs along. EPA is fucking it all up here with too many people flocking in and all the red tape to increase capacity. I’ve lived in the hot ass south most of my life. Thermostat set on 76 and quite comfortable.
Reminds me of the days when Enron was manipulating power prices with black outs etc. How many people went to jail when all of this was exposed…NONE !
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
RELIABILITY:
