Here’s Why This Metal Is Prone to Crisis-Driven Manias… And the Next One Is Coming Soon

Via International Man

inflation

The media hated them.

Big Business, numerous federal agencies, and politicians of all stripes hated them too.

Tiffany’s, the famous jewelry company, vilified them in a full-page advertisement in The New York Times, calling them “unconscionable.”

The villains everyone loved to hate were the Hunt brothers. They were critics of the fiat money system and advocated hard money based on commodities.

At the time, private ownership of most gold was illegal in the US. So the Hunt brothers turned to the next best thing: silver.

From the late ‘70s to 1980, they stockpiled silver. And unlike other investors who settled their silver trades in cash, the Hunts took physical delivery. This often meant flying the silver to Switzerland for storage.

It squeezed the supply… and helped push up the silver price. It went from around $6 in the late ’70s to over $50 in 1980.

 

But were the Hunts really the bad guys everyone made them out to be?

They did nothing unethical. They just exchanged US dollars for silver from voluntary sellers. In fact, it was a response to the government’s unethical actions…

You’ll recall President Nixon severed the US dollar’s last link to gold in 1971. Without the discipline of gold, there was nothing to stop the US government from printing as many dollars as it pleased and diluting the purchasing power of savers. As a result, the dollar was now a pure fiat currency.

The Hunts bought silver because they figured the US government’s actions would lead to inflation. And they were right…

The ’70s saw the highest inflation levels in living memory—even according to the government’s own crooked statistics.

Still, that didn’t stop the US government from going after them for charges of market manipulation. To that, one of the Hunt brothers said: “Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand.”

You see, the silver market is tiny. It’s roughly 1/10 the size of the gold market. So it’s prone to crisis-driven upside explosions as money floods into it during periods of high inflation.

And today, the stage is set for another explosion in inflation. I expect it to kick off a crisis-driven mania into silver like what happened in 1980, but potentially even bigger.

Why Silver Now?

Frankly, there is only one reason I am interested in silver.

I’m not interested in silver as money—because it is inferior to gold.

I’m not interested in silver because of its industrial uses either—especially at a time when the global economy is on the precipice of the biggest crisis in generations.

The only reason I am interested in silver is that it is prone to crisis-driven upside explosions. It is a small market with enormous speculative potential during periods of monetary chaos—such as the one I think we are entering now.

Gold is primarily a monetary metal. Consequently, industrial uses make up a relatively small portion of the overall demand for gold.

Silver is the opposite. It’s primarily an industrial metal with monetary use making up about 15% of the overall demand.

That 15% usually is inconsequential in driving the silver price. But during periods of monetary chaos and raging inflation, people flood into alternative forms of money that hold their value better than rapidly depreciating government paper currencies.

It is during these times that there is often a stampede into silver. And because the silver market is so tiny, it quickly gets overwhelmed, causing the price to spike.

That’s why I like to view silver as an industrial metal with a call option on inflation and monetary chaos.

It all could happen sooner than most realize, and I think the price action will be explosive.

That’s because the US government has printed more money recently than it has for its entire existence.

Thanks to the Covid hysteria, governments worldwide have thrown out the last semblance of fiscal and monetary sanity. As a result, they are destroying their currencies at a breakneck pace.

Deficits are exploding to previously unthinkable levels. The US government is issuing avalanches of debt to finance all this spending. So, who is buying all this debt? The Federal Reserve and its printing press.

In the end, it’s likely to be measured in the tens of trillions of dollars or more.

It’s the most reckless monetary action in the history of the US. Moreover, it has set the stage for an explosion in inflation—notwithstanding any token moves to tighten.

Silver’s monetary demand skyrockets during periods of high inflation. As money floods into it, the price spikes.

It has happened before, and it will happen again—soon.

The “Next Hunt Brothers”

Today, the stage is set for another explosion in inflation. It’s likely to be even more significant than the inflation of the 1970s. I expect it to kick off a crisis-driven mania into silver like what happened in 1980.

Adjusted for today’s prices, that could mean silver soaring above $190 an ounce—many multiples the current price.

If that happens, silver mining stocks will go up even higher—by orders of magnitude.

People will panic into precious metals once the dollar starts to lose its value in earnest—which I expect could be sometime in the next 12 months.

It will be similar to what happened in the ’70s and ’80s, but likely on a much bigger scale today.

But this time, it won’t be the Hunt Brothers.

The “Next Hunt Brothers” will be the masses scared of inflation eating away their savings. They’ll quickly gobble up the minuscule silver market, and it will cause the price to spike.

It’s a predictable pattern:

Financial Profligacy → Currency Debasement → A Panic into Silver → Price Spike

Here’s the bottom line.

The stars are aligned for a silver price spike for the record books. Now is the perfect time to get positioned.

Just remember, the silver price tends to collapse just as dramatically as it rises, which is why I would recommend looking to cash out as soon as the silver price spikes.

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12 Comments
Anonymous
Anonymous
February 1, 2022 5:53 pm

You’ll recall President Nixon severed the US dollar’s last link to gold in 1971.

Because the jewish Federal Reserve printed more dollars than there was gold to back them.

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
February 1, 2022 7:08 pm

Will convert to gold when the price spikes. Looking forward to it. Junk silver will make great walking around money too.

mark
mark
  MrLiberty
February 1, 2022 7:41 pm

Junk Silver will then be called TREASURE SILVER!

comment image

Despise the man for good reasons most of us know…value the soon to be silver dynamic dime bearing his evil FED face.

Post SHTF this dime won’t be valuable…it will be invaluable.

messianicdruid
messianicdruid
  mark
February 2, 2022 1:16 pm

A denarius weighed approximately 3.36 grams and had 91.25% silver purity during the reign of Vespasian.[6]

This translates to nearly 3.066 grams of silver or 0.099 troy ounces of silver. Pretty close to our dime.

“A quart of wheat for a denarius [ a day’s wages ] and three quarts of barley for a denarius, and do not harm the oil and wine.”…

bucknp
bucknp
February 1, 2022 8:34 pm

From the article:
‘Just remember, the silver price tends to collapse just as dramatically as it rises, which is why I would recommend looking to cash out as soon as the silver price spikes.”

While I know I’m conversing with the experienced, here is a more detailed price chart:
https://www.bullionbypost.com/silver-price/silver-price-history/

I started buying junk silver in summer of 2007 when prices hovered in the $13 range. I continued to buy each week even when the prices hovered at $30 Feb. 2011. I stopped after that. sometimes I don’t get good results trying to sell anything. While I’ve not been interested in selling my stash I’m only hoping I can sell. “Cash out”, do I end up with wheelbarrows of paper cash worth nothing?

MrLiberty
MrLiberty
  bucknp
February 1, 2022 9:02 pm

Trade silver for gold might be worthwhile. Less weight for high value.

mark
mark
  bucknp
February 2, 2022 12:40 am

SILVER PRICES – 100 YEAR HISTORICAL CHART

Interactive chart of historical data for real (inflation-adjusted) silver prices per ounce back to 1915. The series is deflated using the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the most recent month as the base. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today’s latest value. The current price of silver as of January 31, 2022 is $22.39 per ounce.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

GOLD PRICES – 100 YEAR HISTORICAL CHART

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

Interactive chart of historical data for real (inflation-adjusted) gold prices per ounce back to 1915. The series is deflated using the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) with the most recent month as the base. The current month is updated on an hourly basis with today’s latest value. The current price of gold as of January 31, 2022 is $1,796.12 per ounce.

bucknp,
I use the above charts for the big picture.

I have been stacking since the early 80’s. I’m a long term Macro guy (in the PM markets) who never trades short term, and always takes possession. I never sell unless it is to my advantage….and I make sure I’m not forced or pressured to.

I have always put my profits into other hard assets.

Macro holding has also always allowed me a hedge/insurance position for the worse, with no counter party risk…if the black swans start flapping their wings.

Gold was the trade of the decade from 2000 to 2010 and I believe it will surpass that massive profit in the coming POP of the Everything Bubble…and Silver will surpass Gold in profit.

I also use the same two generation family dealer the last 14/15 years, 1% fee, who will buy back whatever I have bought from him at no fee.

Have had a great many insured transactions with them (father and son) and never a hiccup. The right dealer/relationship is important.

Only about 16% to 20% of Americans hold any Precious Metals, most are Boomers, and those that don’t are making a huge mistake.

The massive PM paper market (that suppresses the physical) will go poof one day…and those holding paper will get paid back in hyper inflated fiat toilet paper.

Many macro PM people are licking their chops.

bucknp
bucknp
  mark
February 2, 2022 2:08 pm

Different subject, after I began purchasing junk silver I conversed with a gentleman on another political forum who insisted he did not buy junk silver, he merely looked through his change or exchanged paper bills at banks for dimes, quarters , what have you and that is how he obtained his junk coins. I suppose some junk coins still slip through the cracks. However, it’s been longer than I can recall the last time I found junk coin in change or anywhere else but a dealer. The gentleman’s additional remark was the tellers or cashiers were so stupid they did not realize what they were giving him. Maybe? This exchange of information took place around 2012. Seems he certainly knew something I did not. I do recall in the 60’s prior to and after ’64 exchanging silver certificates for silver dollars but finding substantial amounts of junk silver coin in change the last 20 years or more?

August
August
  bucknp
February 2, 2022 3:29 pm

I have not received any actual silver coin as part of every day commerce in the last 30 years.

As an oldster who went through the original transition from silver coinage to crap coinage, I do at least reflexively glance at any white metal coins I receive.

Lumpy Choad
Lumpy Choad
February 2, 2022 3:35 am

I remember swindling my schoolmates as a kid for junk silver back in 80 i cashed out at $45 and did great But in these times it doesnt make sense to me you cant eat it drop a deer with it defend the perimeter with it so what good is it Back in 80 1984 was only a warning (yes we read it in school) in 2022 its becoming scary reality

Muscledawg (not to be known as Delusionaldawg)😉
Muscledawg (not to be known as Delusionaldawg)😉
February 2, 2022 8:10 am

And if the fiat USD collapses, what do you “cash out” into?

Rise Up
Rise Up
February 2, 2022 9:22 am

I would not ‘cash out’ at the first spike in silver. Clif High’s data shows it rising $1-2 a day, the $5 a day in a short time after that. He once called for $600/oz silver but has backed off that. This article says possibly $190/oz, which sure would be nice.