This Housing Bubble Could Be Worse Than 2008

Via Birch Gold Group

This Housing Bubble Could Be Worse Than 2008

From Peter Reagan

Back in November we covered how inflation, mortgage rates, and prices were making things worse for the housing market – in other words, for everyone who owns a home (or has a mortgage) and everyone who invests in housing (developers, real estate speculators etc.).

Looks like the bill has come due, and the housing bubble is about to return to earth…

Side note: Why are we talking about this? Well, maybe you remember the last time the housing market collapsed? We call it the Great Financial Crisis, the worst period in the global economy since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 lost 50% of its value during the ensuing 18-month bear market. That’s why. The housing market is a leading indicator of incoming financial crisis.

Let’s start by looking at the more optimistic commentary that is still making the rounds. For example, Norada Investments attempts to make the case that the housing market is slowing, but won’t crash:

This time around, there are far more purchasers than available properties, the exact opposite of what occurred in the 2000s. The majority of bad mortgages have been eliminated. Lenders have significantly stricter requirements on borrowers.

So far, so good!

In fact, maybe too good… If there are really more purchasers than properties, why is Lennar (the #2 homebuilder by market cap) shopping an inventory of 5,000 houses to big rental landlords? Why are more than three times as many new home sales being canceled, compared to a year ago?

Does it sound to you like there are more purchasers than available properties?

In this next bit, Norada returns to reality:

However, this does not mean the economy is immune to the recession. Two consecutive quarters of negative U.S. gross domestic product, or GDP, often indicate an economic collapse.

This much, at least, is true (though to call a recession “an economic collapse” is an overstatement).

Never fear, despite Norada’s confusion, there are many more bullish stories! For example, Realtor.com’s Clare Trapasso claimed that demand for houses is high enough that supply can’t meet it:

The housing shortage is just too severe as there are far more people looking for homes to buy and rent than there are homes available.

Keep in mind the median home price is $450,000… If that quote stated, “there are far more people looking for affordable homes to buy and rent…” then I’d believe it.

Now, let’s take a quick look at reality.

This chart shows that new single family homes for sale  have been skyrocketing since 2012, and then again in 2020 after a brief respite. The housing market isn’t as oversupplied as it was just before the Great Financial Crisis – but we’re looking at the second greatest oversupply in the last 60 years:

 

While the second graph reveals that the median price of those homes is also skyrocketing during the same period:

 

But while inventory and prices both appear to be extremely high on these graphs, the number of single family homes sold has actually been declining fast since 2020:

 

So, to sum these three graphs up, we have the following:

  • More homes are still being built – adding supply to the market
  • Prices are historically high
  • Sales have been crashing for two years now

High prices, oversupply and slowing sales – that sure seems like recipe for plunging prices.

And I’m not the only one that thinks so – an astonishing number of home buyers are getting cold feet…

Home purchase cancellations skyrocket

But on top of that, home buyers are seeing signed contracts to buy new homes canceled by buyers at a furious rate.

Here’s what that looks like from the perspective of a real estate consultant:

 

If buyers are willing to cancel signed contracts on commercial real estate at a rate up to four times higher than the previous year, that looks like another signal the housing bubble is popping right now.

So how did this bubble develop in the first place? The same as most speculative bubbles do – people confusing temporary changes for a “new normal.”

Pandemic policies contributed to the housing bubble (and the crash, too)

In addition to canceled orders and plummeting sales (mainly due to overpriced housing), a paywalled Fortune article snippet revealed some big city home prices are now falling 15%. This sharp decrease appeared to take place after the housing market heated up during the pandemic, thanks to work-from-home policies:

KPMG: The Pandemic Housing Bubble is bursting – U.S. home prices falling 15% looks ‘conservative’

Regardless of the cause, it certainly seems like home prices have risen to unsustainable levels in the last few years. (Just to put this in perspective, a 15% drop in home prices would only take the national average home price back to where it was in March 2021! )

Home prices are up nearly 50% over the last three years.

In other words, home prices must fall an awful lot more before they return to reality – something like the 40% drop we saw when the housing bubble of the 2000s finally collapsed.

And don’t forget that mortgage rates continue to climb (thanks to continued Fed rate hikes). If $400,000+ is already too much to spend on a home, higher interest rates shrink our home-buying budgets even more…

Now, why am I talking about this?

That’s why I’m keeping an eye on the housing market… I consider it a leading indicator of incoming trouble.

Time to consider a safe haven for your savings?

Let me remind you: the last time the housing market collapsed was the worst period in the global economy since the Great Depression. The S&P 500 lost 50% of its value during the ensuing 18-month bear market. Should that happen again, how would you fare?

Until inflation eases, home prices return to reality (and the stock market, too!), a lot of everyday American families are searching for a safe haven for their hard-earned dollars, especially their retirement savings.

Physical precious metals, especially gold and (to a lesser degree) silver, have historically proven highly resistant to inflation. And during panics and severe financial crises, diversifying with gold and silver can help protect – or even grow! – your savings.

If you’re concerned that your savings are overexposed to risk, right now is the perfect to learn more about whether a precious metals IRA is right for you.

With global tensions spiking, thousands of Americans are moving their IRA or 401(k) into an IRA backed by physical gold. Now, thanks to a little-known IRS Tax Law, you can too. Learn how with a free info kit on gold from Birch Gold Group. It reveals how physical precious metals can protect your savings, and how to open a Gold IRA. Click here to get your free Info Kit on Gold.

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17 Comments
Iska Waran
Iska Waran
January 8, 2023 10:09 pm

The Fed probably should keep rates high to fight inflation, but they won’t because 1) we’re headed into a recession and 2) the government can’t afford high rates on a $31 T debt. So they’ll cut rates before long which might stop home values from cratering. Mortgage rates on 2nd homes and investment properties are atrocious.

If second home values drop as much as expected, maybe Admin can buy back into Wildwood.

As

has pointed out, cutting the cost of energy (drill, baby, drill) would be more effective at battling inflation.

Matt D
Matt D
  Iska Waran
January 9, 2023 4:28 am

At this time and under these circumstances raising rates do not curb inflation. They did it to make sure that inflation would get worse and it most certainly has. They all want an economic collapse and utter destruction . They want the Middle class permanently dead

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Iska Waran
January 9, 2023 10:14 am

They’re paying debt with higher interest debt ad infinitum.
That means that inflation will not (and cannot) end regardless of what the Fed does with rates.
We have entered the end stages of the intentional demolition of the dollar and the economy. Nothing, now, will stop it. The next several years will be bad.

Iska Waran
Iska Waran
January 8, 2023 10:09 pm
Anonymous
Anonymous
January 8, 2023 10:25 pm

If the Jab kills significant numbers and continues to, many more homes from estate sales too.

Billy
Billy
January 8, 2023 10:38 pm

I will worry when the house I live in drops below the $20,000 I paid for it.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  Billy
January 9, 2023 5:34 am

Who wants to live in your card broad box?

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
  Anonymous
January 9, 2023 7:36 am

Hey. Fucknuts!

My family bought a 60 acre farm for 33, 500 in 1970.

Sold it for $550,000.00 in 2019.

Go back to your momma’s box. I’ll be fine.

momma's box
momma's box
  The Central Scrutinizer
January 9, 2023 9:58 am

That’s my boy, SinTrail Scrotomizer!

He’s been fishin’ in my tuna can since he discovered his worm.

General
General
  The Central Scrutinizer
January 9, 2023 4:56 pm

Your family lost a ton of money after accounting for inflation.

i forget
i forget
  The Central Scrutinizer
January 9, 2023 10:11 pm

Your fam never bought the farm. But they got closer to it when they traded a tenuous hold on a real asset for counterfeit money. All those pieces of paper used to promise gold, too.

fat boyz
fat boyz
January 9, 2023 5:33 am

Another ad for buying ‘their’ gold and profiting on FEAR. Go sell some jabs in stead.

The Central Scrutinizer
The Central Scrutinizer
  fat boyz
January 9, 2023 7:39 am

That would be bad enough, but they aren’t even selling gold! They’re selling you a piece of paper that promises you gold.

How stupid would you have to be to fall for that?

morete
morete
January 9, 2023 5:59 am

The world population is 8 billion and they are all trying to move here. When we get 16 billion houses then come back and talk to me about a bubble.

A cruel accountant
A cruel accountant
January 9, 2023 8:44 am

It won’t be as bad because there are thousand of articles like this warning us.

When the housing bubble crashed everyone said it could never happen.

Anonymous
Anonymous
  A cruel accountant
January 9, 2023 10:17 am

Thousands of articles all read by the same thousands of people.
The remaining hundred millions are still clueless.

i forget
i forget
January 9, 2023 10:10 pm

This bubble?

It’s all the one same bubble, bubble, toil & trouble. Witchcraft. Well, (t)witchcraft.

Costanza says the mortgage paper spells the one, true, correct answer: “moops.”

Bubbleboy says “moor, moor, moor!” (how do you like it – how do you like it? ~ Andrea True Connection … is that *the* name for this disco/nnection, or what? I couldn’t make it up better if I tried.)

(((“Andrea Marie Truden[3] (July 26, 1943 – November 7, 2011),[3] better known by her pseudonym Andrea True, was an American pornographic actress and singer from the disco era.[4]“)))

So, which of those cardsharps was in the bubble? Hint: “It’s not a lie if you believe it.” (Or if it’s written. Words are true … magic.)

“Truth? You can’t handle the truth!” Jack Nicholson goes on an under oath rant about the “truth in lending laws.” Well, the truthiness of (b)lending LAWs. Light anti-armor weapons.

Just a little ink, a little paper – _-_-_- & boom! Why paint in that hot third rail when it’s “invisible” anyway? Or, as highest social credit scoring chicoms might say it, “in-risible” (“so lacking in quality or usefulness that it deserves to be laughed at”).

“We gonna lend you a pile o’ “money”, boy, so’s you can borrow that 1700 sq.ft. dopamineum American dream. *AND* everybody involved is willing to say “with this transaction, I thee wed, er, you may kiss the bridal path, er you own real estate!” Such a deal, right?”

Ownership porn. Well, consumption porn. Is that like porn porn? What’s corn pone like? If *temperature* makes the porridge, as Goldilocks says, is that the critical for pone-age, too? Room temperature, am I right?

Look into this here mirror, tell me what you see:

Back cover: “I’m a professional liar. I fool people, that’s what I do. I know all the tricks. But you don’t just have professional liars like me around you; amateur liars are everywhere. You yourself are a goddamn liar & have been since before you could speak. Lying is indispensable for civilization, progress in general, & for you personally, if you want to have friends, get a job, & get laid. *The Truth About Lies* covers the sociology, the psychology, the techniques, & even the wicked fun of lying. It’s important & fun to lie & be lied to, but it’s also important to know the truth. Read this book. You can trust me. I’m a Vegas magician. ~ Penn Jillette”

“When a magician does this trick (or any other kind of disappearing act or false transfer where where a small object seems to vanish or reappear), they first prime your expectations, direct or misdirect your attention, & finally exploit that one-tenth-of-a-second lag in the brain’s perception (in this case, of motion) to cause you to see something that isn’t there.

A more elaborate demonstration of the same principle is best exemplified by Cups & Balls, a magic trick so old & universal that, just like its less charming brother the Shell Game, it dates back to antiquity, & some version of it is practiced in nearly every country in the world. The trick involves three overturned cups & three identical balls (that you can see; the magician no doubt has more hidden up sleeves & in pockets); one ball sits on top of each overturned cup.

The magician begins by moving each ball under its respective cup, & then lifting the first cup to show that the first ball has disappeared. After setting the first cup back down, next the magician lifts the third cup to show the audience that the missing ball from the first cup has materialized under the third cup, alongside the third ball. After setting the third cup back down over the two balls, the lift the second cup. When they lift the second cup, all three balls have somehow appeared under it, & when they lift it a second time, all three balls are gone. The vanishes & transpositions become faster & more complicated as the magician makes the balls disappear & reappear in increasingly impressive, surprising, & confusing ways.

Though there are three balls, not one, & the point is to *show* them to you, not hide them from you; in the end, it’s just a variation on a basic Shell Game. The three balls seem to appear & disappear & move magically from one cup to another because there were actually *more* than the three balls in play the whole time. The magician is practicing elaborate sleight of hand – no different from palming the pea in a Shell Game, just more complex, because it’s not adequate to make the ball vanish. It has to reappear somewhere, & there are three of them being manipulated simultaneously. A skilled hand & a significant amount of distraction & misdirection are required, but when done successfully, the effect is, well … magical.

Sitting with his partner in a diner in 1975, a young, then unknown magician was practicing Cups & Balls. Because he was in a diner, not a theater, he made do with balled-up paper & overturned water glasses. Because the glasses were clear it was possible to see the “balls” as they were palmed, moved & replaced. Even just in practice, at a table with his partner, it should have spoiled the illusion. Instead he discovered something remarkable: because our attention can only really focus on one thing at a time & because our perception of reality lags behind reality enough that our brains take constant shortcuts to create a coherent representation of reality, even with clear cups, *the illusion still held.*

Persistence of vision was still in effect, even as the whole trick was laid bare. In fact, it actually made the trick more surprising, confusing, & remarkable, because while his partner was able to see everything happening beneath & behind the clear cups, he *still* saw the balls mysteriously disappearing & reappearing in different places. According to the magician, “The eye could see the moves, but the mind could not comprehend them. Giving the trick away gave nothing away, because you still couldn’t grasp it.”

Though exposing to the audience how a trick worked won them no fans among professional magicians, the clear glasses reinvented the age-old Cups & Balls. It made the trick better, & the trick made the magician & his partner famous. Very famous. He & his partner would eventually perform that trick, along with many others, under the names Penn & Teller. That unusual approach became the hallmark of their shows; rather than pretending to perform actual feats of magic, they create & deconstruct illusions for the audience in such a way as to expose what Teller refers to as the “everyday fraud of perception.”

“Every time you perform a magic trick, you’re engaging in experimental psychology,” according to Teller. “If the audience asks, ‘How the hell did he do that?’ then the experiment was successful. I’ve exploted the efficiencies of your mind.” Ultimately, what they revealed to the audience using clear glasses for Cups & Balls wasn’t how an old magic trick worked, but rather, how our brains do, & sometimes don’t. Our hardwired inability to process information in real time or to deal with perceptual ambiguity results in our brain presenting us with a sort of representative reality – one that we absolutely require to function – but one that often does not accurately represent reality.”

So homo ners, who be cuppin yer balls, firmly & insistently, makin em disappear a la ’08, reappear a la the reflate, & movin em from here, to there?