Guest Post by Moon of Alabama
Yesterday the well known international relations scholar John Mearsheimer gave a talk (video, 1:33h) about the war in Ukraine to the Committee for the Republic.
Mearsheimer made two major points:
Ukraine can not win this war because the kill ratio in this war is in its disfavor. Mearheimer estimates that two Ukrainians die for one Russian soldier but says that many of his friends think that the ratio is more like 3:1 or 4:1. The reason for this is the WWI-style static war in which artillery is the most deadly weapon. Russia has an immense artillery advantage. During an offensive the attacker will often have more casualties than the defender. But in this war the Ukraine side has been (counter-)attacked most of the time while the Russians defended.
The Ukraine also has a much smaller population than Russia. The current ratio is about 5 Russians for 1 Ukrainian. With a much smaller population and much higher casualties the Ukraine will run out of able bodies way before Russia does.
Mearsheimer expects that Russia, which already has incorporated four Ukrainian oblast plus Crimea, will take another four oblast from Ukraine. (I predicted this on February 24 2022, the day the war began. Those eight oblast plus Crimea are historically Russian land inhabited by Russian people. During the last thirty years they have consistently voted for pro-Russian candidates while the people in west Ukraine consistently opted for anti-Russian candidates.) Ukraine will end up as a dysfunctional (and poor) rump state.
Mearsheimer says that there will be no peace agreement in Ukraine. The war is seen by both sides as existential. Ukraine insists of regaining territory it sees as part of the country. Ukraine wants security guarantees from the ‘west’ which Russia opposes. The problem of hyper-nationalism (fascism) on the Ukrainian side also makes peace impossible. Then there is the problem that Russia, after having been lied to over the Minsk agreements, has zero trust in any ‘western’ word.
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We export death………..
We break every agreement…………
Being an American is nothing to be proud of.
The White Genocide continues here in the US, AND in the Ukraine.
Before it is all over, I believe almost the whole world will be against us.
I do hate living in the End of the US Empire……………how will history regard us?
AND…………..
Will the world accept our apology?
Or will they take EVERYTHING we have as payment for our sins?
(Trump was right about 1 thing, the Russians and Americans should have been allied).
Speak for yourself. For all of our problems with the political class, I would not want to live in any other country in the world. Our shame is not ourselves; our shame is a corrupt political class full of psychotic perverts.
This all happened on our watch.
You recognize this country?
I do not!
…that YOU elected!
You’ll eat your fucking share of blame along with the rest of us.
When you let Communists take the moral high ground away from you I’m thinking that’s no basis for an alliance.
WTF does Russia need with the perverted likes of US?
Besides our natural resources, I mean.
The kill ratio is more like 6 or 7:1 in favor of Russia.
Russia should take the 4 additional oblasts and absolutely obliterate the rest of Ukraine. Turn it into a parking lot.
…leaving no buffer zone between two factions of one of the oldest family squabbles ever to curse the Earth.
Great idea! /sarc
Go tuck your “buffer zone” between your legs, like you tuck other things.
Does your mother know you’re playing on the computer gain?
No, but I told your mother before she did the walk of shame from my place this morning.
The US knows Ukraine cannot win. The US knows the 100 billion dollars they have wasted on Ukraine would have solved many problems here in the US.
For 100 billion dollars you could have gotten every homeless person off the streets. You could have repaired a lot of crumbling infrastructure. You could have built a interstate water grid to pump water from areas that flood to areas that have drought.
But none of that would have put that 100 billion dollars in the pockets of the Military Industrial Complex oligarch’s who own Joe Biden and the US Congress…..
Some people are educated beyond their intelligence. He doesn’t see the bigger picture as to what is going on there. Sorry John.
“It’s only going to get worse. Thank you.”
– Prof. J. Mearsheimer
This party is just getting started.
A very fine lecture. Thank you.