Home prices had historically tracked general inflation over time, even during the Great Depression when deflation took over. All this was true until the Wall Street/Federal Reserve purposefully created home price bubble of the early 2000’s. They created that bubble to take over for the previous bubble they created – the Dot.com bubble. Creating fiat/debt out of thin air and doling it out like candy has this effect.
Then reality regained control from 2006 through 2012, with a 33% crash in home prices, except The Fed and Wall Street decided to not let home prices revert to their mean. They colluded to have Wall Street hedge funds buy up all the foreclosed properties at pennies on the dollar. Part two of the plan was for the captured scumbags at the Fed to reduce interest rates to zero and ignite a home price bubble to exceed all home price bubbles. Of course they also purposefully took the national debt from $16 trillion in 2012 to $34 trillion today, a 110% increase. Meanwhile, the Fed increased their balance sheet from $900 billion to $9 trillion, a ten fold increase.
Virtually no one believes home prices could possibly drop 50%, to the long-term average. Except, long term averages are created by prices going below the long-term average. That would be a 75% decline in home prices. The reason no one believes it could happen is because most people have most of their wealth tied up in their homes. The thought of that asset declining by 50% to 75% is unthinkable, therefore they say it could never happen. Denial is not a river.
They say this even though the chart above clearly shows we are in the middle of the greatest bubble of all time, generated solely by money printing. If you think the Federal Government can take our national debt to $60 trillion with no consequences and the Fed can take their balance sheet up another ten fold to $90 trillion, then you can rationalize today’s home prices.
With five to ten years remaining in this Fourth Turning, I do anticipate another financial crash to match the level of the debt created boom. That, along with some sort of global conflict and domestic chaos when the 2024 presidential election goes off the rails, will accelerate the reversion past the mean. Of course, I’ve been predicting this since 2012, so take that into account. My message to those who understand maff is: Look Out Below.
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Responses to this post are very interesting…..
Wow. So, the 2nd headline / story down from the top in that Dr. Housing Bubble Blog link states:
So one third of Americans making $150,000 a year or more are living paycheck to paycheck and using credit cards to close the gap? So that increase in the monthly mortgage nut is really going to hurt. We are seeing massive increases in defaults with auto loans and credit card debt. Student loans which were paused during the Covid-19 lockdowns, are now coming back to cash strapped buyers.
In THIS old school-boomer-MFer’s mind, if 1/3 of you in that income bracket can’t make it on 150k / year, then brother, you’re economically ignorant, and not living within your means.
You’re buying too many expensive things to keep up with the Joneses, and you must have some kind of addiction Jones that you cannot cure.
A prediction: You stupid bastards & bitches are going to crash and burn eventually,
and no doubt you’ll blame it on Boomers, for mucking up the spending power of the $fiat.
Ignorance.
I get it, that everything costs more, and wages haven’t kept up. Saving for the future is nigh impossible for anyone save the mid 6-figure earners.
“The fastest way to return to economic well being is to augment our means, or diminish our wants” …or something to that effect. Doing both is even better.
-Benjamin Franklin
Here’s another one:
“Frugality is an underrated discipline that far too few have mastered. Some do, eventually, out of necessity for survival.”
~Frothy the sage {who putters along in the far right lane in his 12 year old Accord}
That what each of us calls our ‘necessary expenses’ will always grow to equal our incomes, unless we protest to the contrary. – Arkad, The Richest Man in Babylon
+10 Toleco. One of the best books I’ve ever read. Great one to give young adults.
Too bad most young adults can barely read, or have any reading comprehension, or know how to spell, or have an attention span longer than 10 minutes, or even care at all, if it isn’t moving.
Hey, when ya got hundreds of “likes” what’s the problem?
How in the world are people like this going to “make it”?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/im-60-with-6-100-a-month-in-social-security-disability-and-a-pension-i-want-my-money-to-work-for-20-years-what-do-you-recommend-454736f9?mod=mw_latestnews
If your OUTgo
Exceeds your INcome
Your UPkeep
Will be your DOWNfall
I’m glad that you boomers were able to put yourself through college working part-time every summer at the bootstrap factory.
I worked the second shift and all day Saturday at a screw machine factory. If you don’t know what a screw machine is look it up on your IPhone, because that’s all you’re good for.
My shop had a umber of Brown & Sharpe machines. Later, some shops were clambering to such names as “Mylano-Matics”.
i started work at age 12 on the weekends at grand dads coffee shop, quit skrewl in 9th grade at age 14 to work full time at future FIL’s marina, still got my HS diploma at age 17 before i enlisted.. then worked at Ford Motor, re-enlisted… then worked most of the trades, started up 4 small business’s and said effit at 40 and retired
– 1963 BOOMER here
63 is still boomer? Because I don’t feel like a boomer
Generation X
noun
Date: 1989
the generation of Americans born in the 1960s and 1970s
From Merriam-Webster’s Collegiate
The boundaries are kind of fluid though. From what he described, I would certainly say gen x over boomer.
I was born in 61 (gen x through and through, the description sounds like it written about me, I kid that I was the first gen x) as was two cousins of mine, one from an uncle and one from an aunt. The older of us 3, I would consider a gen x, while the one who was born just a week from me, I would consider a boomer. Even though she was younger than the other cousin, she got to go to the “adult” parties, while we did not, and certainly experienced the hippie scene, and while my other cousin and I was certainly around it, we were distinctly not part of it. She was also not a latch key child from a broken home as the two of us were.
Goat!
I believe that was the cutoff year. lol
A prediction: You stupid bastards & bitches are going to crash and burn eventually,
Many fine US citizens think they are so “owed”. Either “owed” or a “victim” of some damn something. TY
Entitlement mind set. I worked at an old school plant in the mid west early 2000’s that started up in the late 30’s; had three unions. My first actual exposure to entitlement mind set. Coming in from the outside, I heard “they owe me” or “you owe me” often. Unfortunately the unions got all the managers replaced or fired, I was fired from the plant and rehired at another location in another town. Site manager made sure I knew that. Even though he fired me, I reached out to shake his hand to be polite, he refused. I have never forgotten that 20 years later.
I did not appreciate at the time, but getting fired from an entitlement culture was a good thing.
65 years old, paid for house on 5 acres with a 11 year old Toyota truck with 160k miles pulling a camping trailer in the right lane.
Hyperinflation will fix this.
I want a wheelbarrow for Xmas.
The government will force digital currency and inflation will not longer matter. You can have a trillion on your debit card and it will be meaningless as whatever you need will be provided by the government. s/
I know people don’t want to hear it but it’s more than a bit coincidental and disturbing that as we near the 2000 year mark of the crucification, resurrection and ascension of Jesus, all the biblical predictions that are written to occur over the last 7 years starting in approximately 2025 prior to His return are on the obvious near horizon and beginning to pile up like cord wood all around the world.
A coming one world government using vaccine passports, digital currency, great wars and total surveillance and control of all to rule over all.
It’s a really big boil and its’s getting ready to pop.
I know in my heart it’ll all blow at the last trump. The trump of God.
If it doesn’t, do you have a Plan B?
Agree 100%… controlled demolition with out the appearance of the bloodshed..
We are in a debt super cycle, you Reset the whole shingding, only people that get hurt are savers(which aren’t much nowadays) and retirees(which won’t be many thanks to vax )
oh…there will definitely be bloodshed. This isnt the 30’s this time around.
thank you. some are just plain tired of this bullsh#t. When you got nothing to lose, its all about the fight.
On that vax, don’t believe a fucking word tRump says about its greatness. Tell tRump fuck off. What an idiot.
Donald Trump LOCKED-FUCKING-DOWN the U.S.A. and is the father of “Big Beautiful Vaxxines.”
-Auntie
Joe R
October 22, 2023 at 8:13 am
Not the end of Real Estate, just the end of Realtors. It is going to be hard to make a living in Real Estate unless you are established and have invested in distressed properties wisely with mostly cash.
Never cared for those guys anyway.
I can’t swim !!!
HA HA HA HA
The fall will probably kill you
Off Topic:
They filmed that scene at Hellgate Canyon on the Rogue River in Southern Or., NW of Grants Pass.
Also filmed “Rooster Cogburn” with John Wayne and “The River Wild” with Meryl Streep and Kevin Bacon there….. beautiful area.
I have rafted through it many times, used to be good Salmon fishing there.
Good ol’ reversion to the mean. I’ve tried to explain to people crying about mortgage rates being at 20 year (or whatever) highs is that they’re just reverting to their historical mean. Wait until they overshoot and hit double digits.
People are already starting to price in lower rates on 2024.
People? You mean the whores on Wall Street, who talk their book? Those People?
yep those people its on the daily financial headlines, for one year straight.
Shorter term rates may come down more into 2024 (already down about 1/2%). But be careful what you wish for as when they start to head down after a steep rise it signals a recession (I mean a real recession that TPTB can’t gaslight the plebs out of believing) coming soon- that’s when the SHTF.
Yes, the first cut by the Fed begets downside for stocks as it’s acknowledgement of recession
There is still a shit load of liquidity in the economy, stocks will rise when rates come down.
We are in a recession now, markets don’t fucking care. Yes we are headed for disaster but not yet.
Look at all the M2 floating around ready to chase more profits…..
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
Wondering if Jimmy Peanut’s sky high interest rates of the late ’70s will be wiped out by the current occupant of the White House?
Already happened.
No it hasn’t. Interest rates in the later 70’s were nearing 14%.
When I was writing mortgages in 2005, I routinely saw FHA loans (1990) with rates near 17% that wanted to refinance. We are no where near the potential bottom. I own my own house and have no debt. Personally, I hope prime goes up to about 15%. That will blow all of the deadwood out of the market. Recovery will suck, but we will all be better off for it!
The funny thing is you think the fed and wallstreet are that smart
They must be smart. They produce absolutely nothing but manage to convince douche bags to hand over their money.
Recognizing weakness is the law of the jungle. The Fed and Wall Street and Davos and and .gov and Edward Bernays and K-Street lobbyist whores and drug dealers and prostitutes and carnival games barkers and big pHARMA and traveling snake-oil salesmen and P. T. Barnum and street-corner 3-card Monte hustlers and kidtouching clergy and Boy Scout leaders and realtors and salesmen . . . etc., all know humanity better than we know ourselves. It’s street smarts, minus morality. Easy-peasy.
Flies are buzzing around my head
Vultures circling the dead
Picking up every last crumb
Big fish eat the little ones:
Not my problem, give me some
The only cure is self-knowledge . . . and no one wants that:
“I realize today that nothing in the world is more distasteful to a man than to take the path that leads to himself.”
― Hermann Hesse, Demian
“Each man had only one genuine vocation – to find the way to himself….His task was to discover his own destiny – not an arbitrary one – and to live it out wholly and resolutely within himself. Everything else was only a would-be existence, an attempt at evasion, a flight back to the ideals of the masses, conformity and fear of one’s own inwardness.” ― Herman Hesse, Demian
“Genuine communion,” said Demian, “is a beautiful thing. But what we see flourishing everywhere is nothing of the kind. The real spirit will come from the knowledge that separate individuals have of one another and for a time it will transform the world. The community spirit at present is only a manifestation of the herd instinct. Men fly into each other’s arms because they are afraid of each other – the owners are for themselves, the workers for themselves, the scholars for themselves! And why are they afraid? You are only afraid if you are not in harmony with yourself. People are afraid because they have never owned up to themselves. A whole society composed of men afraid of the unknown within them! They all sense that the rules they live by are no longer valid, that they live according to archaic laws – neither their religion nor their morality is in any way suited to the needs of the present. For a hundred years or more Europe has done nothing but study and build factories! They know exactly how many ounces of power it takes to kill a man but they don’t know how to pray to God, they don’t even know how to be happy for a single contented hour. Just take a look at a student dive! Or a resort where the rich congregate. It’s hopeless. Dear Sinclair, nothing good can come of all this. These people who huddle together in fear are filled with dread and malice, no one trusts the other. They hanker after ideals that are ideals no longer but they will hound the man to death who sets up a new one. I can feel the approaching conflict. It’s coming, believe me, and soon. Of course it will not ‘improve’ the world. Whether the workers kill the manufacturers or whether Germany makes war on Russia will merely mean a change of ownership. But it won’t have been entirely in vain. It will reveal the bankruptcy of present-day ideals, there will be a sweeping away of Stone Age gods. The world, as it is now, wants to die, wants to perish – and it will.”
~ Hermann Hesse, Demian (1919)
I read that when I was in my teens and it definitely had a lasting impact.
I understand that now re-reading those passages.
Those clowns make the oldest profession in the world look downright respectable.
Not sure who the ignoramuses and Midwits are that down voted that are but please do us a favor and go get vaxxed again.
Maybe not smart but more like CUNNING. Big difference
Not smart- just evil. But they do do a good job of BS’ing the Midwits- of which there is no shortage.
Von Mises predicted that a credit fueled boom will eventually create a bust of equal proportion. Look out below indeed.
We are definitely going for later.
Later is here:
Adam Smith observed the same phenomenon. It’s the Invisible Hand at work. The boom/bust cycle is the NATURAL state of things. It’s this micromanaged clown world shit show that is unnatural…and it WILL end because it MUST end.
I have a backup retirement plan. Life in prison.
The cool part about life in prison is that at my age is really not a threat/deterrent!
I am looking at homes,would be glad to see a big price drop as still flu pricing in effect.
I feel though will be a epic crash before I get a chance to buy(cash)at a reasonable price,guess then it just does not matter.
You don’t have to kneel on a coon’s neck,
just vote for Trump.
Yep, fuck a duck, Trump gonna save US all. Let’s be rational.
For him to win would mean that a majority understand the state we are in and how we got here at least to some extent so yeah , it would be a sign that we are actually pulling our collective heads out of our asses , but really you are correct , Trump cant save us all .
You do realize that he is the one who pushed lockdowns?
The subject has been worn out sort of like his support for fags catering to Log Cabin Republican LGBTers. Still believing is how it works with his “believers”. “Trust me”, tRump says.
he’s a fcking billionaire!!!!
how many kind and caring billionaires do you know that care about little ole you??
the billionaires will decide everything in your life, we’re already there.
Trump is hardly the solution. Majorily flawed and any forward progress would be thwarted at every turn.
AINT GONNA HAPPEN. The only person to save your tired lazy ass is YOU!
Word. He is also in the pocket of (((Them))). And, the man was another draft dodger, along with Dan Quayle, Howard Dean, Dick Cheney, and other connected elitists. But hey, everybody, just vote harder! Make Amerika Goldman again! Life is a vale of tears. Bleib ubrig.
Better you than me …
That is sad thinking. Don’t know you but I’ll write. Joking I know you are.
I’m a believer that most Americans think emotionally. They’ve lived their lives without too many real cares in the world and now they simply can not handle the fact that their standard of living is declining and the horizon doesn’t offer any hope. Face it, our elected officials do not have the fortitude to do what is right to correct our demise. Emotionally, they are corrupt and want to stay in power and they believe that Americans can not handle solutions that will create the FIX. The band-aids that the US applies to change our plight will not work. As baby boomers die off most of their wealth or whatever wealth remains after the crash will fall to their offspring who will have changed their wild and crazy ways and will seek a more equitable/restrictive form of government. Something like the 1930’s. The real question then becomes do Americans (Gen X, Millennials, etc.) have the moxie to hang in there and retain capitalism or will they want seek some form of socialism where government pats them on the head and tells them what to do. I predict there will be conflict which will cause the land now known as the USA to splinter into several like minded regions. No one wants to think that way today but……
Lots of us truly think “they” are more interested in Plan B-the one that covertly leads to de-population.
I’m a believer that most Americans think emotionally.
I think most Americans think in the vernacular, and the talking heads know this.
Americans be thinking rationally. Just saying.
It will probably be worse than your description. People want to believe that collapses arent dynamic, but they are extremely dynamic and this one will influence not only countries that have used the dollar, but those that have now switched.
When the US goes down the world will go to wars. Venezuela is already initiating it with Guyana. There will be no stability and this will extend into the urban areas of the US and then into the countryside as imports grind to an absolute stop, infrastructure crumbles and any transportation of goods or manufacturing ceases because credit markets go poof.
There will be no worrying about what kind of government there is because most of the populace will be wiped out. No one has any understanding of the amount of necessary maintenance to infrastructure or the amount of imports needed for the US to survive on a daily basis. Our reality will be very close to the mad max everyone fears … remember Russia after the fall of the wall? That but with the violence of Bosnia.
There is not much capitalism left to retain when over half the people get government goodies.
Yugoslavia times Rwanda times Somalia times Argentina times Nazi Germany. Getting the picture?
STOP Noticing Things.
CFRmedia.wordpress
Financial Times is out of sync , they don’t account reality for wage earners because the figures include CEO’s with million dollar bonus figures where inflation is insignificant
Stupid Americans, believing things the writers in the Financial Times don’t believe.
But, where does the data come from? Most likely the government. The corrupt government. And the corrupt media.
Oh.
An image. Not an actual link.
So, maybe not an actual story.
But a deliberately misleading meme.
Unless it’s a real news site.
Who knows?
The Financial Times is just as a reliable source for economic and political news as The Economist.
Think of them as The Mighty Wurlitzer of globalist finance… and ‘governance’.
Timing is everything.
Timing markets of any kind (especially quarterly) is a fool’s errand, unless you have credible inside info. Real Estate is more prone to cycles and macro conditions and movement slow paced.
CRE is circling the drain right now (re-financing mezzanine loans too expensive now) and will get worse before housing does. If residential real estate actually goes down 50% there will be way worse things to worry about by then, like food, electricity, lawlessness, etc….
Location. Location. Location.
( I did not down vote you)
“Virtually no one believes home prices could possibly drop 50%, to the long-term average. Except, long term averages are created by prices going below the long-term average. That would be a 75% decline in home prices. The reason no one believes it could happen is because most people have most of their wealth tied up in their homes. The thought of that asset declining by 50% to 75% is unthinkable, therefore they say it could never happen. Denial is not a river.”
I disagree…
Inventory will, from now until eternity, remain low. “You will own nothing and be happy” is slowly coming true…execpt the happy part. Lower housing starts and lower homeownership rates are part of the Great Reset plan. Only the upper middle class (which is also contracting) and up will be able to afford homes. This will keep prices elevated. Therefore, no housing bust.
You prove my point exactly. It’s inconceivable for you to believe home prices will fall, even though the proof is staring you right in the face. Your argument is “this time will be different”. Classic. I also believe your living depends on the housing market, so this also applies:
True, I do make my living on real estate services. However, the price of homes does not effect my income….transaction volume and the number of competitors I have does.
It does effect your income. If someone sees the value of their home drop 20%, they won’t be doing improvements on their home.
Your inventory staying low forever is also a fantasy, based on bullshit. You do realize that boomers are beginning to die in large numbers and that will continue to accelerate for the next 20 years. Millions of houses will come on the market as boomers die.
Have you heard of the demographic cliff? I have, because I’m in the higher ed industry. The number of 18 year olds is falling and will go off the cliff starting in 2026. The number will continue to fall as people are having less kids. There is no one coming down the pike to buy the houses Boomers are trying to dump.
Do you think the animals crossing our border are going to buy them houses? Nope. Supply and demand will determine prices and the facts point to much lower prices.
But you don’t know anyone who has experienced a home price drop, therefore it will never happen.
I love you Admin and that ain’t gay. I love you like a brother and that is no joke. You may be right. I may be right. We’ll see.
I don’t do home improvements. I own a virtual tour company. We create online visual marketing material for Realtors and their listings. Currently, yes, transaction volume is effecting our business but, spring be around the corner yo.
Gotta love your optimism when mortgage applications are currently at 30 YEAR LOWS. Probably having the slightest impact on your volume. LOL
I noticed you didn’t address my inventory facts, even though your entire argument was based upon low inventory forever.
All I’m hearing is inventory is low low low and prices are high high high. Of course, this is for just my area…the DMV.
Btw, what is the all cash closing numbers? In my area it is quite high (I’ll have to ask a client what that number is since I do not know). And guess what they’re buying with all that equity cash? Middle to lower end homes/condos. The exact type of housing for first time buyers. Cash always wins (well, almost always) against buyer who has to take a loan.
You are definitely smarter than I. This spring will tell us something. I’m already hearing rates will decline in 2024.
First time buyers do not typically purchase “all cash.”
No shit, but equity rich boomers do and what boomers are doing is selling their Mcmansions and buying smaller/starter homes/condos all cash. Cash beats buyers with loans.
That’s the truth.
Did you ever suspect that those buyers are not individuals? Think Black Rock et al.
Proves even more of my points.
>>>Your argument is “this time will be different”. Classic.
Reflecting on the Century of Central Banking, and particularly on the last twenty years, I suspect that one day – perhaps even now – this time will be different.
The market has been buoyed by near zero fed funds (and MTG) rates, cash baby boomer buyers and corporate investors. All of the above are disappearing. By the time the baby boomer kids finish with Mom and Dads inheritance, the market will have already collapsed. Game over, Spring notwithstanding.
Impossible to lower rates or face Civil War with people.unable to deal with 20% REAL inflation, heading to hyperinflation unless rates at least double, defined as 50% monthly inflation.
Pls read this which I wrote and published here and at Zerohedge.
https://worldyturnings.wordpress.com/2023/05/09/another-big-lie-part-2/
Bless Yer heart Glock but you ain’t right.
Just made $100,000 on a house I bought 4 years ago. Around Atlanta we got more buyers than sellers.
Your broke ass ain’t never owned shit. You should just STFU.
As an aside, my mother inlaw is sitting on $1,000,000 in equity on a shitty home in NJ. Seriously, it is a teardown. Fire up the reverse mortgage machine.
She needs to wait until it is valued at $2 million. They ain’t making more land, so it can only go up from here.
Who wouldn’t want to live in Jersey. Highest real estate taxes on earth, left wing governor, pollution, corruption, etc. It’s a no brainer for home price increases.
I agree, she should have left NJ years and years ago but her late husband simply would not move. I believe she will end up moving.
As an aside, the one thing I do worry about is transaction volume. If transactions remain low, or low enough, it certainly could effect the economy all by itself. Home sales/construction has a far far economic reach.
What effect do you think continued fiat printing will have on housing?
Continued fiat printing will lead to rising inflation, as it has already. This will lead to interest rates staying high or going higher, until the entire mountain of unpayable debt come crashing down on all of us. Doesn’t matter how frugally we’ve lived. When the shit hits the fan, it will be sprayed on everyone.
I don’t think you are evil enough. I believe TPTB will protect housing whatever it takes.
LLPOH said many many times that the living standard in the US will fall about 35%.
Well, somebody told us wall street fell
But we were so poor that we couldnt tell
The cotton was short, and the weeds was tall
But Mr. TRUMP’s a-gonna save us all.
I think it will be far worse than that. More than 50% at least. Just my opinion.
Glock- Loop thinks billionaires pay the lion’s share (most) of all US income tax collected each year. That should tell you he ain’t right.
I didn’t agree with everything he said. I have a burning hate for G.R.E.E.D.
Glock- It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand all fiat currencies flame out, just as every other fiat has historically. In every case the living standard tanks. TPTB know it is coming, we should all get prepared for a hard crash. This time it will be global…….OY.
When you see kneegrows clean out stores in about 15 minutes, just remember that will be private property owners down the road. I’ve already heard the term, “Eat The Rich” repeated like a threat. Good luck rich folks keeping your shit when TSHTF, housing will be wherever the hordes decide to camp.
Pretty sure LLPOH never said that. By memory, he said the top 1% pay around 20% of income taxes, and the top 10% pay about half.
NO, he point blank said billionaires and then we proceeded to have a real tangle over it because I couldn’t let that much stoopid slip by. That was many years ago, now everyone is a billionaire.
*** And I put up links to prove who actually pays the largest share of taxes collect annually by the criminal IRS pirates.
You assume they have the power or the will to do so. I’m not convinced of either of those premises.
@ Admin
IMHO…. The Fed will lower rates when something obvious breaks, or Black Swan event. Markets are already up because it senses The Fed is done raising and the final blow off top will commence when it actually starts lowering rates, then hyper, then deflation, just like history tells us .There is one more good run left for equities as the Fed will go back down to zero…again, for the last time.
Real Estate is another issue because it is tangible and illiquid and people need to fucking live somewhere, but it’s gonna go too, it’s all gonna go. At this point in time it’s all binary code anyway. It was fun while it lasted.
End of 2024 (election time?) for SHTF scenario and yes we will all get some on us.
The amount of shit depending on where you live and how much debt you have.
There could very well be blood in the streets and the Russel 2000 and S&P 500 are within 20% of their all time highs.
Blood in the streets is as near certain as Secretariat winning the Belmont Stakes; the only question is how much… and whose.
In that situation it is probably best to stand pat and hold what’s yours against all comers. It will all be “worthless” anyway, right? You’re describing that point in this game of musical chairs where the music finally stops. Yeah. It’ll be bad. Most of us have been saying that for a long time.
I just hope our 130 acres of low elevation Idaho forest with excellent water, soil and microclimate will continue to hold it’s value for the next 20 years. At least enough to eventually pay for hospice care!
You’re already better off than 99%. I am jealous. Stay away from hospice care though. Get yourself a daughter who will clean and cook for you and leave the rest to God.
The true worth of real estate or anything else for that mater is only what somebody else can afford or is willing to pay.
If people can’t afford it or choose not to pay it the seller must lower the cost to what someone is willing to pay or not receive any immediate value for the item offered.
It’s a balancing act between supply, demand and ability or willingness to pay the asking price.
Payment can be received in many ways other than currency.
If great desperation is involved all kinds of scenarios can occur.
Unless it’s cash (going away soon) people can “afford to pay” only what a bank is willing to loan. That depends on so many things that are so screwed up now, that there is no true price discovery on anything. That is going to change soon and many are going to be shockingly disappointed.
Well said but easy money has distorted organic market forces making people( stupid people ) believe they can afford to pay what they in fact cannot .
All over Southern California, large high-density apartment complexes are being constructed as rapidly as possible. These homes are the destination of what will be left of the middle class.
In Colorado they call it “affordable housing”. The shock comes when you notice the people who are being shuttled into the new slums.
Sounds like fucking Dallas-Fort Worth. Come on down to Texas. We be “different” but only in imagination.
To follow up on that note, I make it to the DFW area generally within a month or two. It is absolutely astonishing the massive apartment complexes under construction. These eyesores are 4-5 stories tall or taller. Pack ’em in like rats, that’s the idea. Shades of Agenda 21. But hey, some of these apartment things have a view of Ray Hubbard Lake.
On the bright side , got to have some place for Comanches to live. After all, it’s Comanches that are working the massive infrastructure projects, the massive bridge work, the apartment projects. The streets are already full of “homeless”.
No big deal. I can vision some idiot driving pedal to the metal rounding a curve on one of those bridges and flying through or over the concrete barriers plumb off the thing. I drove on a bridge last visit and one curve I was freaked out the scrapes and black tire marks on the outside barrier.
Moral to that story , drive with head up ass.
I think your more right than admin on this one especially on the great reset plan. Not to mention Blackrock paying 100 thousand more than the asking price.
Blackrocks already bleeding after raping people while paying over 11% returns.
The cognitive dissonance on this housing topic is way too damned prevalent.
TBTF
WIP, housing starts and multi family has been booming in southern NH for at least 8 years. In a previous life I had to pay close attention to such economic signals and I’ve never seen it this strong and long lasting.
Also mortgage rates above today’s 7.5 were normal for decades.
In my area they do 3 things…
1. Tear down small affordables on large lot and put up mcmansion.
2. Build small enclaves of mcmansions.
3. Build condos.
I also do not think there is much spec home building going on anywhere. I don’t know everything, of course.
“A 50% FALL” [only]
Admin is an incorrigible optimist!
Well it’s two and one half weeks out from back surgery and I just had the 36 staples removed from the incision.
My back brace and sitting against or lying upon anything would apply continually pressure on the staples and against the incision causing perpetual discomfort.
Now I’m just on tylenol and feel and move nearly as good as new and literally pain free with my four new screws and two rods in my lower vertebrae.
Apparently a large calcification was pressing hard on my nerves and had to be cut away to relieve the pain.
What’s hurt the worst is watching the missus doing all the chores morning and night in the cold rain and snow tending the horses and pigs while I’m unable to provide any meaningful assistance for at least another 6 weeks or so.
A few good friends have come through for us when needed to do some heavy lifting with hay, bedding, grain and coal.
It appears at this point God willing I’ll be back to work before winters end to watch the world turn completely inside out.
I feel for you, seriously. You are lucky to have married well though, that should bring you great comfort.
Get well soon, glad your op was a success.
Eyes,having good friends to do for the time the heavy lifting means you are also a good man/friend when lifting needed,a strong wife also proves this point.
I am happy to hear the pain fading and with a little work(work out) hopefully you soon up and running full steam.
Good friends help with the heavy load/real good friends help friends move bodies…..,just saying!
She’s a tough woman. Smart, hardworking, survivor who’s had her share of loss and pain no one should ever have to as a child, wife, mother and grandma.
I’ve done well in this life but am being humbly taught independence and individual strength is not ultimately ever enough.
Dependence on God first and one another is needed to carry us through.
Unfortunately much harder times appear to be approaching quickly. I believe this physical life is fleeting and just the entrance exam. Eternity with God is the ultimate reward by grace through faith in Jesus alone.
No one can earn or deserve it.
Just trust and believe.
This is not going to happen, unless the price of the raw materials and the labour to build a house goes down also. I just don’t see that happening.
Now THAT’S the actual facts.
The third cost that will never go down is govt regulations that drive up the cost of building
That was the plan. To print money to oblivion till it all KWASHES. Bring about the mark of the beast for KOMPLETE KONTROL. Getting it now???
Karl agrees
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=250224
Greg Mannarino things the Fed will cut. I think he will eat those words, personally.
They are going to raise rates, I would bet in the early months of next year.
If you have any open positions, the next few weeks before Christmas will be a good time to get out.
We’re at all time highs, built on a foundation of quicksand.
The Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
Equities/stock markets currently disagree. All of them up last week
Powell’s latest speech was dovish.
Christmas sales down, CPI down, housing starts/sales down, RV/Boat/Car sales down, Home Depot/ Lowes sales down, Tax revenue down, continuing unemployment claims unchanged. Mainstreet is starting to feel the pain, more to come. It’s working.
Rates stay the same for longer. Don’t fight The Fed, you will lose.
No panic yet. The Fed is in the sweet spot, the best thing to do is nothing….. evil fuckers.
Check back around March. I don’t think the Fed has as much control as they think they do.
The Fed controls the world.
No they don’t. They just think they do.
The Rothschilds control the world by proxy for the top of the pyramid and Rothschild owned banks own most of the Fed along with other proxy shareholders like British royalty and others.
I am amazed that they have levitated this flaming turd as well as they have, pure wizardry.
BL here.
The Federal Reserve has hundreds of PhDs and well over 1,000 ‘sworn LEOs’, 37 duty stations and plenty of firepower. Motto: Protecting The Nation’s Economy.
They are invincible. Take that, Hermann Hesse!
Mary: This March rates will be the same or they will be down maybe 25 basis points. Things will have to get more shitty for rates to come down.
The WORST thing The Fed can do is lower rates and then inflation goes back up again. That has happened before and the markets vomited. The Fed will NOT do that again. That would be a full blown “The Fed doesn’t know what the fuck it’s doing!” moment and panic will ensue at a time when everybody is already paranoid, for damn good reasons.. Better to let things play out for longer until the decision will basically be made for them.
Rates the same for longer is Powell’s message right now. Keep in mind that markets are no longer psychologically connected to the the “real” economy.
Whatever controls The Fed, controls this country and probably a good portion of the world.
Whatever the Fed does it needs to be done sooner than later-election is coming up.
you just parrot the financial talking heads … do you actuall know anything about capital markets? The b.s. about the ‘dovish’ Fed has been printed in every article since the Fed started raising rates. The Fed has been ‘going to cut rates’ since it was 3%. The Feds paused because the market was ticking rates up. The 10 yr was nearly 5%.
What you and the rest of the finance talking heads do not seem to get is the cutting of rates isnt going to save those ‘unrealized losses’ and the Fed is already attempting to pump liquidity into the system as is giving banks loans at cost and not revaluing market losses… THIS IS QE ALREADY. Combine this with the fact that the dollar is declining in usage for international trade and the ‘foreign buyers’ are not our major trade partners so lowering rates will only exacerbate this situation, not to mention that the drop in the 10yr to 4.2% (that volatility means there is no liquidity) hints that there is funny business behind the scenes.
The belief that the world is going to continue to give the west a free lunch by buying debt for 0% is cuck-coo … the Fed is guaranteed considering a raise.
Put your money where your mouth is.
You said yourself, stealth QE is going on. Why? Brick and mortar economy most likely in recession now and heading down, I already gave examples. I trade using market sentiment, not false metrics and cooked books (Elliot wave theory) and have done well. Just play around money invested now. You mentioned 0% rates, that is the new floor, that is the problem, that has never happened before in all of history, that is why The Fed is screwed, it can’t raise much above that because the system can’t afford turning over debt again and again. The kicked can has hit the proverbial wall, 0% was the last gasp
Rates the same and likely to come down before election.
Don’t fight The Fed, make money off them for as long as possible.
The collapse will start in Asia.
They work at Dollarstore and have a 3 million dollar budget.
.
One of the best leading indicators for the local economy. Especially when there is a bank or credit union on every corner in a lot of markets.
Housing in the USA is grossly unaffordable.
Thanks for for sharing your true feelings and how you came about them, with that brilliantly written essay.
Everything is too expensive.
the rent is too damn high
Check out this strategy: I was very skeptical at first but now, its working for me…paying of a 28-year mortgage in less than 10 years, with no increase in monthly spending or income.
replaceyourmortgage.com
50% drop in house prices means my property taxes drop 50%. I’m not going anywhere so let’s bring it on.
HAHAHA…that’ll be the day, right?
You wish. The property tax mafia will out smart you in ways that have yet to be invented.
Ah , but in Texas, the dupe , Prop 4. “temporary limit”…temporarily duping the peeps and it works, the dupe. Fucking assholes. How about ELIMINATING the fucking property tax? Gutless bastards. And the people yell , yea! Idiots.
Lololol. Please tell us you’re joking. Let me know when those property taxes drop.
Yep, on that Texas Prop. 4 which “passed” needless to say but a “rigged” vote of course, beside the point, the legislators applied the wording of appraisal valuations not exceeding 20% but WTF, it’s TEMPORARY. Read the damn thing. At least “they” were honest there will be increases in taxable valuations. LMAO!
Peeps will see their 2023 public school portion of the tax reduced with the increase in homestead exemption from 40% to 100%. Going forward though this proposition was only meant to appease for short time, And hey, it’s not like the “need” for these revenues just go away. Surely no one thinks that! The State of Texas makes up the difference to the school districts with its budget surplus. Moving on down the road , are property tax payers to think they will not make up the difference themselves in other forms of taxation , fees for this that or he other.
Texas ballot propositions are only another form of the dupe for the most part. But you know with different prop the public school teachers are getting a raise because they have not had one in like 100 years (/s). Geez, the $$$ will just drop out of the sky.
Nah, they’ll just raise the mil rate so you pay at least the same amount. Government never takes a pay cut.
75% housing depreciation is most definitely a just number. I look forward to it at least for my kids generations sake.
If that happens, your kids will not benefit.
I recognize the multitude of avenues this negative hit to housing could and will beget, Anon.
I’m aware. The crashes brought about by or the prerequisites leading to such a correction is boundless to consider.
BUT…I’m ready as best as I can tell.
Bring it.
Donald Trump would not make a pimple on Calvin Coolidge’s ass. Thank you.
what a suhprise
another wine abowt Trump
who got trump drainage sindroam now
Since I was in my early 20’s I have tried to move to a better climate. Every-single-time something has happened that ruined my well researched plans. That last time was when I had gotten my MBA on my employer’s dime…then the crash of 2008/2009 happened and no one was hiring. Wasn’t willing to leave my current comfort to take a substantial pay-cut.
Now I have penciled in my early retirement for this coming July. Financially everything is in order to go. I fully expect a crash of epic proportions to keep me stuck here in purgatory. Sorry everyone, it’s actually going to be my fault.
Arizona, just do it but keep a side gig to make up for the hyper-inflation. We are not Venezuela yet, but we are in the beginnings of elevated inflation. That is what the proles are not understanding, young people believe it’s the Boomer’s fault.
Live the dream Arizona.
BL here.
you always lose with jews
Agree 100% on -50%.
And then there is the stock market, likely to go down 75%. This bears repeating….
https://worldyturnings.wordpress.com/2023/05/09/another-big-lie-part-2/
Do your part to support free speech by boycotting Walmart.
Gold moving quickly.
https://goldprice.org/spot-gold.html
The Bernanke said gold is a tail hedge (true). This is the tail of which he spoke, are you hedged?
Bankers motto: A rolling loan gathers no loss.
Should I wake in the morning I’m having eggs and breakfast sausage then setting a few 8″ corner fence posts with old fashioned post hole diggers then cruising to the fitness center and lift weights for 1-1/2 hrs. I might have a few beers tomorrow afternoon but before dark around 5PM. Daylight savings time stinks.
Another funny from marketwatch:
‘I can’t afford to keep losing.’ I’m a 60-year-old Alabama widow. My $118,000 IRA has lost 7% since September. Do I need a pro to help?
Ding-a-ling, “wake up”, read the “fine print”, no “guarantees”, subject to “ups and downs”. Don’t do them if head completely up ass. Up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down…