Iranian Axis Grinds Down US’ Will as Israel Suffers Stunning Setbacks

Submitted by Bob P.

Guest Post by Simplicius The Thinker

There are some very strange happenings in the Middle East which underscore the historic shifts grumbling just beneath the surface, ready to break through.

Firstly, to set the stage we turn to Israel, which appears to be concealing an operation that has gone off the rails, and is not yielding any of the expected results—and in fact has done little more than turn the world against them, creating a shockwave of anti-Israeli fervor that will steer sentiment for generations.

As we now know, Israel has withdrawn many of its brigades from the north, citing ‘rest and rotation’ when in reality it appears to be ‘reconstitution’, as the brigades took major attritional losses. Now in the wake of that, the latest bombshell reports state that resistance fighters have re-infiltrated the entire north, leaving the map looking like that of below:

I myself was skeptical—could Israel really have abandoned the entire north after “claiming” to have captured it?

But here’s the double bombshell: even ISW admitted it:

For the Kagan-run institute to admit this is huge. Their report below:

What does this mean? Has Israel suffered a total defeat in the north? Or have they “cleansed” it of ‘Hamas’ and are now taking a victory lap? To be completely fair and unbiased, we can’t say for certain as there is a deliberate informational blackout, particularly given all the reports we’ve seen from CNN and co. which openly state nothing is allowed to be aired without the full editorial oversight and approval of the IDF.

All we can do is infer from a variety of objective observations, such as the distinct lack of any mass eliminations or captures of resistance fighters, which is very telling.

During the entire time, there have been increasingly urgent secret talks between the US and Israel, with the Biden administration pleading with Netanyahu to curb his assaults.

A reminder:

In the meantime, Israel has continued to press into Khan Younis in the south. But yesterday they suffered what was unanimously called the biggest ‘tragedy’ of the entire conflict thus far. During one of the IDF’s routine mining operations, consisting of rigging explosives on civilian buildings, resistance fighters were able to trigger a detonation with dozens of IDF still inside the building:

This led to ~24 IDF killed in a single blast:

Al-Jazeera even ‘reconstructed’ how the blast happened:

Al Jazeera artificially reconstructs the epic Al-Qassam operation that led to the death of 24-28 IOF soldiers near Al-Maghazi, 2 days ago.

Netanyahu calls it ‘the most difficult day’:

This is only a symbolic culmination of what appears to be turning into a fiasco. If I didn’t know any better, I would surmise that Israel’s operation is mirroring Ukraine’s doomed Khrynki assault: where an inability to admit grave miscalculation has led to a sunk cost fallacy induced comedy of errors. Israel obviously can’t pull out now to save face, so it almost leaves one with the impression they’re floundering around, secretly panicking internally as to what to do because they’ve reached the conclusion that ‘Hamas’ is an intractable shadow they cannot brute-force their way through.

Recall that just last month Kirby admitted that Hamas had not been attrited at all, and an Israeli reserve colonel gave a tearful account of piled up IDF bodies which seemed to imply that they are taking far heavier losses than they’re admitting to.

There are increased reports from Israeli insiders that sound hopeless or give credence to theories about the operation being a failure. One Israeli soldier’s message:

Now, on top of the releases of soldiers and withdrawals of brigades, Israel has reportedly offered an unprecedented two-month pause in the fighting:

There is more and more commotion within society, disagreement and in-fighting in the government over what direction to take. Earlier in the week the Knesset erupted with angry parents of hostages who are outraged at the government’s inability to get them back or negotiate their release:

Here a slain IDF soldier’s brother reportedly tries to attack Benny Gantz at the soldier’s funeral:

“My brother didn’t die in vain!” The brother of Major Adam Bismuth, who died the day before yesterday in the Gaza Strip, angrily attacked War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz at his funeral in Karnei Shomron

Such scenes are becoming increasingly common—society is really boiling over, while Israel steadily loses support even among its allies.

The UN and the world increasingly call for a two state solution, but Netanyahu has vocally rejected this as impossible. In fact, his Likudniks continue to call for outrageous relocations and forced ethnic cleansing of Palestinians; for instance, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen proposed dumping all Palestinians onto an artificial island:

And the idea is not even a new one:

Now, at the worst possible time, Iran has decided to turn the screws on Israel, creating extremely unfavorable conditions by locking down the maritime chokepoints, as well as putting unprecedented pressure on Israel’s top ally of the US, militarily, all across the region.

Even as of this writing, a new US-flagged ship, the Maersk Detroit, was said to be attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea, though US CENTCOM claims the three missiles were all repulsed. The US Navy has been relegated to a glorified escort, but since the al-Mandab strait has effectively become a warzone, it has nonetheless crippled commerce.

Even the top pro-American analysts and commentators are appalled at the prestige loss the US is incurring as consequence:

Countries in the region are scrambling to come up with new ways to bypass the now Houthi-dominated Red Sea, with Saudi Arabia proposing a new land route as follows:

And the situation has gotten so bad that the US is forced to shame-facedly beg China to intervene in de-escalating Iran’s unleashed fury:

US officials are looking for any possible vector that can buy them a breath or two of relief.

Recently I had reported how new strikes by Iranian-backed groups had again caused major damage at US’ second largest base, as well as wounding many troops. It was the latest in a slew of strikes over the past few months:

Here’s Kirby trying desperately to downplay it in order to excuse the fact that US is unable to respond in any declarative way against Iran:

With everything quickly going south, and the US finding itself increasingly drawn into a quicksand-like mire, there are now some shocking reports about what it could all entail.

First, two days ago came a rumor that the US was considering talking its Kurdish allies in Syria into ‘working with Assad forces’ to combat ISIS.’

This immediately set off speculation that the US was getting ready to abandon Syria once and for all, and was looking for a way to securely fill the vacuum. Naturally, many scoffed at this, and refused to believe US would possibly withdraw from the region.

But then came today’s Charles Lister-penned bombshell for FP:

The shockwaves the article sent are still doing their laps through the world. As usual, it cites unnamed sources in the DOD and White House:

While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary. Active internal discussions are now underway to determine how and when a withdrawal may take place.

The Pentagon was quick to release a statement denying that such a thing is actually being planned. However, that means very little as they wouldn’t admit to discussing humiliatingly face-saving retreats of this sort anyway—not until the script-writers have hammered out the exact angle and narrative that will be used to stage-manage such a withdrawal. In short: they’ll need to find a way to spin it as some major victory for Biden.

For those who may still be skeptical, there are additional adjacent reports which seem to at least imply something is afoot on this account. Most shocking of all are new reports that US is in discussions to end its occupation of Iraq entirely:

Reuters, citing sources: Initial talks between America and the government in Baghdad about ending the presence of coalition forces in Iraq against the backdrop of developments that took place as a result of the war in Gaza. The United States of America made the end of its presence a condition that it stop strikes by resistance factions on its bases in Iraq. The United States expressed its readiness to begin talks with the Iraqi government in a letter delivered by the United States Ambassador to Iraq, Alena Romanowski, to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein on Wednesday.

Reuters:

CNN today:

The US ambassador to Iraq, Alina L. Romanowski is reported to have delivered a memo today to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry regarding ‘preliminary steps’ to begin the withdrawal of US and Coalition Forces from the country. This comes amid public calls by members of the Iraqi government for US forces to depart the country due to the war in Israel and continued attacks by Iranian-backed forces.

The US claims these are long-planned talks and have nothing to do with the recent attacks, but that is clearly not the case. The Reuters article above provides one key line:

In doing so, the U.S. had dropped preconditions that attacks against it by Iran-backed Iraqi militant groups in Iraq first stop, three of the sources said.

You see, the US previously had preconditions for talks of ending its occupation; one of the conditions being that Iran-backed Iraqi groups first had to stop bombing US bases. But now, the US has apparently dropped this significant precondition, as per the Reuters report. That tells us that US is making concessions out of desperation.

The CNN article states:

But some elements within the Iraqi government prefer a schedule based on a timeline, setting the date for an American withdrawal regardless of the stability or the security situation within the country. On January 10th, the office of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said they would soon begin the process “to end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq permanently.”

So just what in the world is going on, exactly? At this most critical of times, why is the US thinking of tucking tail and running from the region?

My take is this: in short, the US is being run out of town by Iran. Their bluff was called and US knows their puny strikes can do nothing to truly degrade Iran’s highly decentralized hybrid warfare systems and groups. Iran has risen to become a hegemon verging on a Great Power of the region. The US has a few obsolete fleets which cannot keep up blow for blow with Iran in exchanged rounds of ammo. Iran can saturate them forever with drones and cheap rockets which the US is spending millions per every fired shot to intercept.

Furthermore, the US cannot produce its most important strike weapons in enough quantity to ever win a long endurance stand off. For instance, here’s a thread showing US’ procurement of refurbished and upgraded Tomahawks, indicating they can only produce a few dozen per year for hundreds of millions of dollars.

Though it may seem unrelated, this new video of Arestovich is quite topical. He describes why NATO could never defeat the Russian-Iran axis. In particular, what he gets incisively accurate is that US is really only good for one big hammer blow, after which it would have major sustainment issues in producing the precision strike systems for a long-haul endurance campaign:

He’s absolutely right. The US can launch a massive shock and awe of hundreds of Tomahawks at a time—even a thousand. But against Yemen such firepower does nothing but hit cactuses and empty sheds.

What I believe is this:

The US is currently at a precipice where it can still somewhat save face by retreating early and pretending it never intended to commit in the first place. But if it goes on and overcommits, it stands to get militarily exposed. The world will see the US as utterly weak and beatable. If they went “all out” with full force posture and nonstop strikes and achieved nothing, it would show that the mighty US naval fleets are impotent, all the vaunted force projection capabilities are totally overrated and useless against Iran.

It’s like a bully throwing a smaller kid up against the school locker. There is that one split moment where the bully’s path is forked: he can either go all in and begin the fight, at which point if he happens to get beat by the smaller kid, his reputation is ruined forever. Or, he can take the small prestige hit by pushing the small kid away and saying: “Eh, you aren’t worth it anyway, twerp.” It may look like a bit of a cop out, but the bully still manages to preserve most of his aura of dominance.

I believe US is in precisely this position. It sees itself as nearing the “point of no return” after which it would have to either totally commit to an overwhelming victory—which internally US planners know is not possible without a massive unprecedented Gulf War-esque conflict with boots on the ground—or cut its losses now and exchange a small amount of embarrassment and shame for an existential-level humiliation that could entirely ruin the US for good—which is what would happen if it totally committed and lost.

Each day that passes and each new strike on US bases in Iraq and Syria brings the US closer and closer toward the brink. They know they cannot maintain this tempo, particularly given that Israel was the US’ chief mode of deterrence against Iran in Syria. But now Israel has its own hands tied in Gaza and US has suddenly found itself being overwhelmed.

The action appears to be coordinated within the resistance axis, particularly given new reports that Russia will begin aerial patrols of the Golan Heights corridor.

This may be a tactic to block the US in with a one-two punch. Russian planes deter Israeli strikes, which helps Iran build strength and deliver arms to its militias in Syria; then those militias increase pressure by hammering US bases in the region. Seeing the writing on the wall, the US knows the situation is untenable and unsustainable.

Will the US actually scram sometime soon? Most likely not, as there are multiple factions, amongst which are the neocons which will surely push with all their strength to maintain US troop presences in the region, even if it takes a new small falseflag or two. However, it certainly is a sign of the times and of how desperate the situation is becoming for the Empire.

But the pressure on them continues increasing, the Iraqi resistance released a new message just today that they are initiating phase two:

Senior Iraqi Islamic Resistance Commander Hajj Abu Alaa Al-Wala’i: Resistance operations have moved to the second phase.

The second phase of the Islamic Resistance’s operations in Iraq includes enforcing the blockade on Zionist maritime navigation in the Mediterranean Sea and putting the ports of the usurping entity out of service.

This is an escalation spiral that the West is not ready for, particularly when they’re embroiled in numerous conflicts around the globe.

Of course there’s always the chance that US may end up totally doubling down, but at this point, its position has never been weaker. And the longer things go, the more economic damage is done to the West and its allies. Russia and China continue to have free passage through the straits, as well as cheap energy, while the West is taking all the hits.

The longer it goes, the larger the political storms that will engulf Europe. The AfD in Germany, for instance, is already now calling for a DeXit or German exit to leave the EU. Things are certainly coming to a head, and the chickens are coming home to roost for the US as well, as the southern border is now slowly inching toward civil war.

As a last note, circling back to Israel: if things are so dire, why is Israel still talking about potentially opening up a new front against Lebanon? One popular theory is that they want to use a new even larger war against Hezbollah to hide their failure in Gaza. How would that work if the war against Hezbollah could be an even bigger failure?

It’s hard to say for certain but one idea is simply that by doing so, they would hope to somehow draw in the US into a larger total war against Iran in order to ‘cut the head off the snake’, in their eyes.

The second potential idea is that, one of the reasons for Israel’s failure in Gaza, is that they know the only way to truly succeed and totally deracinate ‘Hamas’ is to destroy all of Gaza entirely. However the outcry has turned global sentiment so far against them that the US had to step in and exert major political pressure, forcing Israel’s hand in cutting their plans short. But by opening a second major warfront, Israel could seek to shift all global attention to the Lebanese front, which would leave a lacuna of coverage in Gaza, allowing them to finish totally demolishing it under cover of a much wider conflict. Also, given the fact that the Israeli public itself is souring on the Gaza adventure, this could allow them to sway public support into a more existential fervor by embroiling Israel in such an ostensibly wide-scale war that it would frighten the citizenry into supporting the war effort out of sheer desperation and survival instinct.

—

Lastly, there’s a great new article written by Patrick Theros, ex-US ambassador to Qatar. He brings up some good points about how Biden appears to be caged in by the Israeli lobby, contrasting that with previous presidents who managed to show a little more dignity and gumption in standing up to Israel’s control over the US:

He brings up the turning tide in the US, with the young population increasingly at odds with Israel; which includes a lot of young Jewish, liberal, and Democrat people. From NYPost:

Patrick cites a recent survey that shows nearly half of young Jewish-Americans do not support the current policies of the US toward Israel:

He ends on a similar conclusion to my own—that there is a small window remaining:

Biden has a very short window within which he can cut off Netanyahu before he can carry out his apparent war aim to depopulate Gaza and carry the conflict to Lebanon and possibly beyond — a conflict, in other words that could very well drag American forces into another endless Middle Eastern war. A quick and decisive decision, combined with real diplomacy to exploit the crisis and craft a workable solution to 75 years of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, would recover America’s reputation.

This brings up one last potential explanation for the new bombshell announcements that the US may leave Syria and Iraq: it could be a threat to Israel. Since Israel does not take any other type of plea into consideration, the only remaining avenue for the US may be to simply threaten to ditch the region, with the attendant loss of direct regional military support to Israel. In short: stop your escalations or we’ll leave you hanging to fend for yourself against this emergent Iran. And some within the state department and military may be outright pushing for the total withdrawal simply to keep the US from being embroiled in a larger war they know is unwinnable.

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