The Fourth Turning is Here Review – A Complex System?

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Strauss-Howe, the New York Times, and Turchin’s Return

Note: I recommend headphones for this episode as I rendered the audio very low by mistake. It was recorded while Turchin’s Ages of Discord was making the rounds in the summer of 2020.

Over the weekend, the execrable New York Times revisited Strauss-Howe generational theory in anticipation of Neil Howe’s forthcoming (and long-awaited) sequel to The Fourth Turning. The article’s headline invoked Strauss and Howe’s theory as “doomsday” (which the NYT had done before), the article itself described the theory as “cult”and quoted several non-believers (predictable), and Neil Howe was referred to passive-aggressively as “[shying] away from casting himself as a modern-day Nostradamus” (also predictable).

Continue reading “Strauss-Howe, the New York Times, and Turchin’s Return”

Generational Theory and The Fourth Turning: A Review Before the New Book

Generations, and their four recurring archetypes, create and perpetuate history’s seasonal quality.

History offers no guarantees…The outcome of the next Fourth Turning will determine the enduring reputation of the Unraveling in which we now live.

Strauss & Howe, The Fourth Turning, 1997

Civilizational Disintegration and the Universal State

One of the most conspicuous marks of disintegration…is a phenomenon in the last stage but one of the decline and fall, when a disintegrating civilization purchases a reprieve by submitting to a forcible political unification in a universal state.Arnold Toynbee, A Study of History, Volume IV: The Breakdowns of Civilizations