Ramblings on the Constitution

Let me preface this by saying, in no uncertain terms, that I am no constitutional scholar. Following are random – and I mean random – musings re the Constitution and its amendments, which I have taken the time to read over the last couple of days. How many of you have ever read the Constitution – start to finish? It doesn’t take long to read, and it is an interesting journey.

The preamble lays out what it is all about – to establish justice, insure domestic tranquillity, and provide for the common defence and general welfare of the people. In this, I must say that it has been a dismal failure. They are high goals indeed, but the reality is far different.

Is it just for a small percentage of the population is able to sway the elected representatives of the country to do their bidding? Do you feel tranquil and safe, given the crime, economic turmoil, and inequality that exist? Do you think that the government is providing for the common defence by its involvement in overseas war, and do you think that the rampant mismanagement of the nation’s economic situation and budget are providing for the general welfare?

Re Congress, the Constitution establishes that the role of Congress is to collect taxes, provide for the common defence, regulate commerce, to coin money and regulate value thereof. Etc., etc.

At this point I want to highlight one of the most glaring, incontrovertible, in my opinion totally inarguable unconstitutional activity that has occurred. In addition to the right of Congress to coin money, the Constitution says that States may only permit gold and silver coin to be used as tender. Please re-read that – the STATES ONLY MAY PERMIT GOLD AND SILVER COIN TO BE USE AS TENDER! This has never been amended. How can any reading of the Constitution consider fiat money as Constitutional? Why has there been no challenge? Why has no state – any state – flat out refused to accept fiat money? WHY?

Moving right along, the Constitution allows the president to fill vacancies that happen during the recess of the Senate. For me, that means if a vacancy occurs during the recess, the president can fill it. Of course, presidents have taken it to mean that they can fill vacancies – independent of when they occur – during recesses. What an over-step of the intention of the Constitution.

The Constitution guarantees trial by jury, etc. It requires 2 witnesses for the crime of treason. The 5th amendment requires the person to be indicted by a grand jury. Also, Bills of Attainder are forbidden. So, in all, just how can the president make a unilateral decision to order the death of an American citizen overseas (sounds like a Bill of Attainder to me!)? Where is the indictment? Where is the trial? Where are the witnesses? In the name of all that is holy, how can that be Constitutional?

The Constitution has the Congress chosen by the “People”. It does not define people. It just assumes everyone knows that people are white men, and it doesn’t clarify people for over a century to include women. This highlights a great flaw in Constitutional law to me – that a strict reading of the Constitution is incorrect as it does not reveal intent, and for the Constitution to be followed, intent must come into it. An example of this, where I differ with SSS, for instance, is re the first amendment which enshrines free speech. Did the Framers actually mean for this to cover paid lobbyists to lobby on behalf of the rich and the corporations? Did the right to petition actually include to lobby? Does seek redress – which normally means “To set right, remedy or rectify” actually mean to sway the Congress into making laws favourable to the rich and powerful? I think not. And the right of business to lobby has never been tested in court, to my knowledge.

The Constitution gives the power to wage war to Congress. And only to Congress. And it seemingly implies that war is only meant for defence – it talks about defending against invasion. It also talks about keeping an army – with appropriations for such required every two years. How often in the last 200 years have these things been violated? Where is there a right to wage war in other countries – at all? Where does it give the president the right to wage war without the consent of congress? The requirement of 2 years appropriations and no more seems to imply, at least, that an army shouldn’t be something that is maintained in perpetuity for defence (that would seem to majorly the purpose of militias, which is mentioned numerous times). Where do long-term military contracts come in – as that would seem to breach the appropriations clause?

The second amendment clearly gives the right to bear arms, especially for the maintenance of a militia. It seems to me that a well-equipped militia would require all manner of arms – including automatic weapons, grenades, etc. A militia is defined as “A military force of civilians to supplement a regular army in an emergency.” A militia armed with sling-shots simply wouldn’t be very effective against invasion, now would it? Banning weapons of any type seems to me to be un-Constitutional.

Here is another little titbit – the Constitution bans imposition of taxes between states. States are currently squealing like stuck pigs over this due to on-line commerce, which deprives them of their sales tax revenue. Amazon is perhaps the major player here. States are trying everything they can to circumvent the Constitution with regard to this.

The 4th amendment talks about search and seizure, and warrants. That amendment has been violated so many times it is now common practice, I would suggest. Police knock on your door – or don’t even knock – don’t identify themselves, and shoot you dad when you come to the door armed, or confront them in your house armed. Often with no consequence to the police that do the shooting.

The 6th amendment guarantees a speedy trial. What a joke – reality is far different.

The 8th amendment talks about cruel and unusual punishment and no excessive fines. That is another joke – the IRS has so many excessive fines on its books it is laughable. For instance, if you fail to advise them of an overseas bank account and how much is in it (do they really have the right to know what is in your bank accounts?), the fine is 50% of the balance of the account. Not for not paying tax – for not telling them about the account!

I understand that the Constitution is meant to allow the federal government to do what is in the Constitution – and only what is in the Constitution – and no more. The states have the right to everything else. The fact is that the federal government has grown its reach into every aspect of the daily lives of Americans.

I apologize for the rambling nature of this, and for the fact that it barely scratches the surface of so many issues. The thoughts herein are not organized but simply came from notes taken during my reading of the Constitution and its amendments. However, it seems to me that the Constitution has never been an actual working document. The corruption of politicians and police, the buying of favor, has existed forever, and continues unabated. The rights of the people with regard to search and seizure, the right of non-self-incrimination (the IRS requires you to self-incriminate, for instance, and will use that against you in a criminal case), the right to trial by jury and habeas corpus, the right to petition, assemble and free speech, the right to coined money comprised of gold and silver, to keep and bear arms, et al, have been either ignored or entirely abandoned. And now, the highest court in the land has become politicized beyond redemption.

Does the Constitution really have a place anymore, and did it ever? It is a wonderful document – stirring even. But I have to say it is largely a work of fiction, as it isn’t in force. Perhaps the people will seize the day and make it what it may have been – a guide book for freedom and prosperity. But somehow, I think the opportunity has passed. I encourage everyone to take the hour or two required and read it start to finish. It is quite something.

DID THE UTZ FAMILY BUILD THAT?

Full disclosure. The author is a proud, native Pennsylvanian and a huge fan of Utz’s pretzels and potato chips. Mmmmm, tasty. There is a good reason for this. Pennsylvanians instinctively love chips and pretzels. It’s in their DNA. In fact, there is an unconfirmed rumor that the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has officially enshrined chips and pretzels as one of the basic food groups, equal to fruits, vegetables, and Philly cheesesteaks. I need to check that out. In the meantime, here’s some startling evidence to confirm what I’ve said about DNA.

IMAGE OF NORMAL DNA

IMAGE OF A PENNSYLVANIAN’S DNA

In 1921, Bill Utz quit his job at a shoe factory in Hanover, Pennsylvania. With a $300 dollar investment, Bill and his wife Salie (not a misspelling) set up shop as a two-person operation in a summer kitchen behind their home in Hanover. Salie had good knowledge of Pennsylvania Dutch cooking and used hand-operated equipment to make about fifty pounds of potato chips per hour. While Salie stayed home making chips, Bill delivered them to “mom and pop” grocery stores and farmers markets in Hanover and the Baltimore MD area.

Today, Utz Quality Foods, Inc. is the largest privately owned snack food company in the U.S. It has over 2,200 employees and annual revenues of over $400 million dollars with distribution centers stretching from Maine to Louisiana. That’s a perfect snapshot of how successful free enterprise works.

Utz is certainly not a unique story of American capitalism. It has happened thousands of times in our nation’s history. But sometimes we need to be reminded that people like Bill and Salie Utz created something very beneficial not just to themselves, but to our country. Private sector jobs which supported the employees and their families. Personal income, real estate, sales, and corporate taxes which supported the nation, Pennsylvania, and the local community. Products which consumers freely bought and enjoyed. Major purchases from farmers who grew the crops and from manufacturers who made the equipment used by Utz.

Another important feature of Bill and Salie’s adventure with capitalism is that it didn’t cost anyone else a nickel. They took the risk, they used their own money, and they used their own labor to kick start this successful enterprise. As a result, over the nine decades Utz has existed, literally billions of dollars have been pumped into the U.S. economy and government treasuries.

At the end, there’s a link to the historical timeline of Utz Quality Foods. As you read through the history of the company, I think you will be struck, as I was, about the long term positive economic impact Utz has had, from the enormous expansion of their manufacturing facilities to an explosion in the number of employees. Just from one company. And yes, starting with Bill and Salie Utz, the Utz family did build that.

www.utzsnacks.com/about_history.html

I DID NO MORE THAN YOU LET ME DO

First they tortured the Muslim terrorists.

Next they invaded and bombed sovereign Muslim countries.

Then they roamed the Muslim skies with lethal predator drones.

Then they started listening to your phone calls and monitoring your internet messages.

Then they treated you like a terrorist at airports.

Eventually, they will torture those who do not conform to their policies and rules.

Eventually, they will enter your home in the middle of the night without a warrant.

Eventually, predator drones will roam the skies above our cities.

THEY WILL DO NO MORE THAN YOU LET THEM DO.

THE HANGMAN

By Maurice Ogden

Into our town the hangman came,

smelling of gold and blood and flame.

He paced our bricks with a different air,

and built his frame on the courthouse square.The scaffold stood by the courthouse side,

only as wide as the door was wide

with a frame as tall, or a little more,

than the capping sill of the courthouse door.And we wondered whenever we had the time,

Who the criminal? What the crime?

The hangman judged with the yellow twist

of knotted hemp in his busy fist.

And innocent though we were with dread,
we passed those eyes of buckshot lead.
Till one cried, “Hangman, who is he,
for whom you raised the gallows-tree?”

Then a twinkle grew in his buckshot eye
and he gave a riddle instead of reply.
“He who serves me best,” said he
“Shall earn the rope on the gallows-tree.”

And he stepped down and laid his hand
on a man who came from another land.
And we breathed again, for anothers grief
at the hangmans hand, was our relief.

And the gallows frame on the courthouse lawn
by tomorrow’s sun would be struck and gone.
So we gave him way and no one spoke
out of respect for his hangmans cloak.

The next day’s sun looked mildly down
on roof and street in our quiet town;
and stark and black in the morning air
the gallows-tree on the courthouse square.

And the hangman stood at his usual stand
with the yellow hemp in his busy hand.
With his buckshot eye and his jaw like a pike,
and his air so knowing and business-like.

And we cried, “Hangman, have you not done,
yesterday with the alien one?”
Then we fell silent and stood amazed.
“Oh, not for him was the gallows raised.”

He laughed a laugh as he looked at us,
“Do you think I’ve gone to all this fuss,
To hang one man? That’s the thing I do.
To stretch the rope when the rope is new.”

Above our silence a voice cried “Shame!”
and into our midst the hangman came;
to that mans place, “Do you hold,” said he,
“With him that was meat for the gallows-tree?”

He laid his hand on that one’s arm
and we shrank back in quick alarm.
We gave him way, and no one spoke,
out of fear of the hangmans cloak.

That night we saw with dread surprise
the hangmans scaffold had grown in size.
Fed by the blood beneath the chute,
the gallows-tree had taken root.

Now as wide, or a little more
than the steps that led to the courthouse door.
As tall as the writing, or nearly as tall,
half way up on the courthouse wall.

The third he took, we had all heard tell,
was a usurer…, an infidel.
And “What” said the hangman, “Have you to do
with the gallows-bound…, and he a Jew?”

And we cried out, “Is this one he
who has served you well and faithfully?”
The hangman smiled, “It’s a clever scheme
to try the strength of the gallows beam.”

The fourth man’s dark accusing song
had scratched our comfort hard and long.
“And what concern,” he gave us back,
“Have you … for the doomed and black?”

The fifth, the sixth, and we cried again,
“Hangman, hangman, is this the man?”
“It’s a trick”, said he, “that we hangman know
for easing the trap when the trap springs slow.”

And so we ceased and asked now more
as the hangman tallied his bloody score.
And sun by sun, and night by night
the gallows grew to monstrous height.

The wings of the scaffold opened wide
until they covered the square from side to side.
And the monster cross beam looking down,
cast its shadow across the town.

Then through the town the hangman came
and called through the empy streets…my name.
I looked at the gallows soaring tall
and thought … there’s no one left at all

for hanging … and so he called to me
to help take down the gallows-tree.
And I went out with right good hope
to the hangmans tree and the hangmans rope.

He smiled at me as I came down
to the courthouse square…through the silent town.
Supple and stretched in his busy hand,
was the yellow twist of hempen strand.

He whistled his tune as he tried the trap
and it sprang down with a ready snap.
Then with a smile of awful command,
He laid his hand upon my hand.

“You tricked me Hangman.” I shouted then,
“That your scaffold was built for other men,
and I’m no henchman of yours.” I cried.
“You lied to me Hangman, foully lied.”

Then a twinkle grew in his buckshot eye,
“Lied to you…tricked you?” He said “Not I…
for I answered straight and told you true.
The scaffold was raised for none but you.”

“For who has served more faithfully?
With your coward’s hope.” said He,
“And where are the others that might have stood
side by your side, in the common good?”

“Dead!” I answered, and amiably
“Murdered,” the Hangman corrected me.
“First the alien … then the Jew.
I did no more than you let me do.”

Beneath the beam that blocked the sky
none before stood so alone as I.
The Hangman then strapped me…with no voice there
to cry “Stay!” … for me in the empty square.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ZSS3yxpnFU

QUOTES OF THE DAY

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”
― (United States) Congress

“A funny thing happened to the First Amendment on its way to the public forum. According to the Supreme Court, money is now speech and corporations are now people. But when real people without money assemble to express their dissatisfaction with the political consequences of this, they’re treated as public nuisances and evicted.”
― Robert Reich

“Religion is like a pair of shoes…..Find one that fits for you, but don’t make me wear your shoes.”
― George Carlin

“Without Thomas Jefferson and his Declaration of Independence, there would have been no American revolution that announced universal principles of liberty. Without his participation by the side of the unforgettable Marquis de Lafayette, there would have been no French proclamation of The Rights of Man. Without his brilliant negotiation of the Louisiana treaty, there would be no United States of America. Without Thomas Jefferson and James Madison, there would have been no Virginia Statute on Religious Freedom, and no basis for the most precious clause of our most prized element of our imperishable Bill of Rights – the First Amendment to the United States Constitution.”
― Christopher Hitchens

“It is precisely that requirement of shared worship that has been the principal source of suffering for individual man and the human race since the beginning of history. In their efforts to impose universal worship, men have unsheathed their swords and killed one another. They have invented gods and challenged each other: “Discard your gods and worship mine or I will destroy both your gods and you!”
― Fyodor Dostoyevsky, The Brothers Karamazov

“Of all the religions in the world, perhaps the religion of liberty is the only faith capable of purity.”
― Tiffany Madison

Stop Getting Screwed: How I Saved 21% On My Comcast Bill

Alas, the dreaded call to Comcast to once again renegotiate my monthly bill came around. See, every 6 months, I basically call them up, claim I’m going to quit and go to Verizon FIOS and see how much I can have my monthly bill reduced. What happens each time is that we play some cat and mouse, bluff a bit and then ultimately, they knock a portion of the charges off my bill by offering me various “promotions” which reduce the face value of the bill. Then, 6 months later, these promotions expire and my bill shoots up and I have to call them again and repeat the cycle. I figured by sharing my experience and talking points, it might save you a few bucks or even provide some ammo to use with other carriers from cell phone service to waste collection. Same theory applies – competition is good for the customer.

This week, my call went like this:

See how to negotiate a better bill from any utility supplier.

Accountant Explains Why the US is Going Down

I just found this video by Hal Mason, who is an accountant. I haven’t seen it posted here before, and apologize if it has already been up here.

This video explains, in very plain and easily understood terms, why the US debt is unsustainable, and what is going to happen. It is so easy to understand, I thought it was worth sharing. He doesn’t sugar coat anything, and tells it like it is.

The sad truth, however, is that what he says is required to avert catastrophe simply isn’t likely to happen.

RED ALERT – EXHAUSTION SYNDROME ACTIVATED

John Hussman points out the obvious. Obvious to everyone except the the big swinging dicks on Wall Street and the high frequency trading computer nerds. If the market has not fallen because it believes Ben Bernanke will come to the rescue with QE3, then it is already priced in. The previous QE efforts have been nothing but a dose of adrenaline to a patient dying of cancer. They have had zero impact on the real economy. QE has created no jobs. QE has not raised wages. QE has only enriched Wall Street traders and bankers. Recession is here. Europe is imploding. Greece is dead country walking. The market is poised to drop. Are you poised to survive the drop?

Extraordinary Strains

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

Just weeks after the enthusiasm over Europe’s plan to plan for the possibility of using the European Stability Mechanism to bail out Spanish banks, the subtle technicality – that direct bailouts would make all of Europe’s citizens subordinate to even the unsecured bondholders of Spain’s banks – has predictably deflated that enthusiasm. On the growing recognition that addressing Spain’s banking problem will mean taking those banks into receivership, wiping out unsecured debt (much of which unfortunately was sold to unknowing Spanish savers as secure “savings” vehicles), and having the Spanish government sort out the damage, Spanish 10-year debt plunged to new lows last week (see chart below), and Spanish yields hit fresh Euro-crisis highs. At the same time, interest rates in Germany, Finland, Holland, Denmark and Switzerland all moved to negative levels looking 2-5 years out. The world is paying these governments to lend money to them, because the only way to acquire other default-free, non-commodity assets is to hire armored trucks and secure vaults to take delivery of physical currency. This set of conditions is not normal or sustainable, and indicates extreme credit market strains in Europe.

The Euro also hit a fresh 2-year low last week at 1.21, just a shade above its 2010 crisis low of 1.20. Likewise, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped to 1.45%, matching the historic low it reached a few weeks ago. Yields were higher even in the depths of the Great Depression, when the S&P 500 was trading at less than 2 times the pre-Depression level of earnings, the Shiller P/E on 10-year normalized earnings was less than 5, and the S&P 500 was yielding 16%. As a side note, many analysts seem almost woozy at the “incredible value” that supposedly exists in stocks because the 2.3% yield on the S&P 500 exceeds the 1.45% yield on 10-year Treasuries. It’s worth pointing out that prior to the point that inflation took off after 1960, the yield on the S&P 500 exceeded the yield on Treasury bonds in fully 93% of the data.

Keep in mind that once you subtract out the necessary compensation for default risk (which is rapidly increasing in Spain, for example), interest rates represent the value that the economy places on time. Long-term interest rates have plunged to record lows, and real interest rates are negative after inflation. What interest rates are telling you; what the Federal Reserve is telling you; what the equilibrium created by lenders and borrowers is telling you – is that time is economically worthless and that economic malaise will extend for years.

This does not reflect a well-functioning economy. To the contrary, if you look across history and across nations, strong prospects for sustained economic growth are typically accompanied by high real interest rates, because the demand for capital is robust and good ideas have to compete for funding. Interest rates are an indication of both the demand for loans and the incentive to save. It is not “stimulative” to depress interest rates in an environment where households, businesses and governments are desperately trying to reduce debt. That policy may insult the value of time enough to deter people from saving, and to reduce the immediate penalty for assuming even larger amounts of debt (as the U.S. government continues to do), but it should be clear that these actions move the economy further from a sustainable equilibrium, not closer to it.

I do expect that it will be possible to navigate the coming years well, but it will not be by locking in negligible yields and depressed risk premiums in the futile hope that one plus one will end up being something other than two. Prospective returns vary a great deal over the course of the market cycle, and the strategy of varying risk exposure in proportion to the prospective compensation for that risk will be essential.

On the economic front, as we expected based on leading economic evidence, new orders and order backlogs have dropped abruptly in recent reports. These indices are short-leading indicators of production, which is likely to show a striking decline beginning in the July data. Note carefully whether any positive surprises are in May and June data, because these reports will still be mixed. I continue to expect negative employment changes in the coming months, though as I’ve noted before, we may only find this out later on revisions rather than the initial prints in real-time. In any event, I am convinced that we will ultimately learn that the U.S. economy, slightly trailing the global economy, entered a new recession in June.

While July components are still coming in, the chart below shows the most recent condition of coincident U.S. economic data, reflecting a variety of Fed surveys and Purchasing Managers surveys.

The key question – in view of extreme credit market strains in Europe, and accelerating economic deterioration in the U.S. – is why the S&P 500 continues to trade within a few percent of its April bull market high. The answer is simple: investors are scared to death of missing the widely anticipated market advance that they expect to follow a widely anticipated third round of quantitative easing. Good economic news may be a relief for investors, but bad economic news in this context is just as much of a relief because it brings forward the anticipated delivery date of the sugar. The follow-up question, however, is that if more QE is widely anticipated, and a market advance is widely anticipated to result, isn’t that the precise definition of an event that is already priced into the market?

If you look at the Federal Reserve’s own research on quantitative easing – large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) – nearly every paper emphasizes the “portfolio balance” effect. Put simply, as the Fed removes longer-term Treasury securities from the menu of portfolio choices available to investors, it forces investors to consider alternative securities, raising their prices and lowering their yields – with a particular impact in driving down the risk premiums of risky securities. Indeed, as we’ve noted, QE has generally been effective in helping stocks to recover the peak-to-trough loss that they have suffered in the prior 6-month period (though the most recent LSAPs in the UK and Europe have been failures in that regard).

Still, once risk premiums are already deeply depressed (we estimate the likely 10-year prospective total nominal return for the S&P 500 to be only 4.8% annually), once stocks are trading near their bull market highs, and once Treasury debt already sports the lowest yield in history, should investors really expect much of a portfolio-balance effect from further attempts at QE? Frankly, I doubt it, but in the eventuality of a third round of QE, we’ll focus on our own measures of market action – not on any blind faith in the Fed.

The more troubling issue is that Fed papers on the effectiveness of QE focus almost singularly on the effect of QE on interest rates and risk premiums in the financial markets, with the notable absence of any analysis of the resulting effect on the real economy. This is like showing that squirting gas into an engine will make the engine run faster, without any concern for the fact that there is no transmission that connects the engine to the wheels. In a nutshell, the problem with QE is the lack of any material transmission mechanism from monetary interventions to real economic activity. This is a problem that the Fed should have recognized years ago, because there is strong and consistent historical evidence that real economic activity has very weak “elasticity” with respect to financial market fluctuations, particularly in equity values. Invariably, a 1% change in the value of the stock market is associated with a change of just 0.03-0.05% in GDP, and even that change is transitory. What the Fed has been doing is little but bubble-blowing, while at the same time driving the global financial system further from equilibrium rather than toward it.

Unfortunately, I expect these efforts to continue, but I also expect that it will be useless in averting an unfolding global recession. If the Fed was to initiate a third round of QE near present levels, it would likely be disappointing in the sense that it would fail to reverse economic weakness and at the same time would fail to drive equity prices higher than they already are, or interest rates materially lower than they already are. This would damage confidence in the Federal Reserve and force it to resort to language about monetary policy working with “long and variable lags.” Moreover, at a 1.45% yield and an 8-year duration on a 10-year bond, any interest rate increase of more than about 18 basis points a year will now produce a negative total return for the Federal Reserve over the period that the bonds are held, which comes at public expense (reducing the amount of interest that the Fed would otherwise turn over to the Treasury). As a result, talk is presently much cheaper than action. It seems likely that another round of QE will await obvious economic weakness and a significant spike in risk premiums – probably best measured by the depth of the drawdown in the S&P 500 from its most recent 6-month peak. Still, given that the rationale for much higher risk premiums is very real, it’s not clear that QE will have durable effects on stocks even in that event.

In short, a broad array of observable evidence suggests extraordinary strains in Europe, and abrupt though expected deterioration in U.S. economic activity. The Federal Reserve certainly has policy options, but those options have no material transmission mechanism to the real economy. We’ve always viewed the Federal Reserve as having an important and legitimate role in providing liquidity to the banking system in the event of heavy withdrawals; creating new reserves in return for high-quality, default-free securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. This remains an important role, but the Fed’s actions have gone far beyond this role into areas that distort financial markets without transmission to economic activity. That’s just a reality we have to accept, and we’ll respond to further interventions with particular attention to trend-following measures of market action.

Here and now, we remain defensive in the face of accelerating strains the global economy – new highs in Spanish yields, negative interest rates across more stable European countries, new lows in the Euro and U.S. Treasury yields, collapsing new orders and backlogs, a sudden plunge in the employment component of the Philly Fed index, collapsing M2 velocity, and other factors. Due to some modest interest-rate considerations, our estimates of prospective return/risk have improved negligibly from the most negative 0.5% of historical observations, and are now among the most negative 0.8% of historical data. This rare extreme keeps us on red alert for now.

Market Climate

As noted above, accelerating strains are evident both in the global economy – particularly Europe – and in the U.S. economy. Stock valuations remain stretched on the basis of normalized earnings. Profit margins are nearly 70% above their historical norms at present, but these margins reflect very high deficit spending and very weak savings rates – something that can be related to corporate profit margins through accounting identities. Unless one anticipates continued deficits indefinitely, either revenues will revert closer to the level of labor compensation, or less likely, labor compensation will increase toward the level of revenues, but in any event the gap will tend to narrow. This may not be an immediate outcome, but stocks are instruments with an effective duration of over 40 years (mathematically, the duration of stocks is essentially equal to the price-dividend ratio, regardless of growth rates or repurchases). The very long-term stream of cash flows matters enormously in asset valuation.

One of the immediate issues I have with stocks here is the “exhaustion syndrome” (see Goat Rodeo) that has re-emerged in recent weeks. Examining the rare past instances of this syndrome, in 1961, 1987, 2000, and early-2008 among others, the key feature is a breakdown in measures of market action from an overvalued, overbought extreme, followed by a recovery rally toward the prior high and accompanied by earnings yields below their level of 6-months earlier. Normally, the recovery carries the market back to the prior “line” of support that surrounds the peak. The emergence of this exhaustion syndrome may seem benign or unimportant, but it has historically been an important precursor of major market declines. Given what are already significant challenges for both the economy and for the prospective return/risk tradeoff in stocks, my concerns about the potential for deep market losses remain elevated.

Investors often have the impression that the market simply collapses once a bull market peak is set, but this isn’t typical. What is typical is exactly the sort of exhaustion pattern we’ve observed since April. To illustrate this, the chart below presents market behavior around several market peaks that were also followed by an exhaustion syndrome as we observe today. The bull market peaks are aligned at 1.0. The remaining scale is set as a fraction of that peak. Time is measured in trading days before and after the bull market peak. Note that after a quick initial decline from the bull market peak, it’s typical for the market to recover much of the lost ground before the downside progress continues, in some cases producing the “exhaustion syndrome” that we presently observe. Exhaustion syndromes can go on for several weeks, but have historically been very dangerous advances to trade, because more often than not, there is a bear market just behind them. This was not the case in three instances: the July 1998 instance – followed by a decline of only 18%, the July 1999 instance – down only 12% over the next several months, and of course the instance in late January of this year, which occurred at about 1326 on the S&P 500 and still hasn’t yet resolved into losses beyond the weakness we saw in May. It’s possible that the market outcome will be benign in this case, and that the market will go on to set further bull market highs. We have no intention of taking that improbable gamble in the face of present headwinds.

Strategic Growth and Strategic International continue to be fully hedged, with a staggered-strike option position in Strategic Growth (which raises the strike prices of the put side of our hedge). We presently estimate the time-decay or “theta” of the staggered-strike position at about 0.25% of assets monthly – which we are willing to accept based on the extremely negative outcomes that are typical of the current climate, and the expectation that we will not remain in this position for a long time. Strategic Dividend Value is hedged at about 50% of the value of its stock holdings, and Strategic Total Return continues to carry a duration of just over one year, with about 10% of assets in precious metals shares and a few percent of assets in utility shares and foreign currencies.

GENERATION SCREWED

Neil Howe with another thought provoking post. He posted this on the same day that a Millenial named James Holmes committed one of the most horrific mass murders in history. Howe’s description of Millenial beliefs and hopes fits perfectly with my thesis about why Holmes snapped. Millenials have very traditional views on success and the American Dream. They believe education will lead to a good job, which will lead to a good income and a nice house in the burbs. Well reality sucks. Howe doesn’t address the current state of affairs, but shifts the discussion to the 2020s when Millenials may get the chance to succeed. That doesn’t cut it in my book. How do the Millenials get through the next ten or fifteen years with staggering student loan debt, lack of good jobs, miniscule income and no chance to buy a house? What does this do to their beliefs and minds? We’ve seen what it did to James Holmes. How many more Millenials will snap?

I was happy to find out that my Generation is actually the most screwed. But that’s alright, we expected it. Gen X relishes being crapped on. We don’t expect much and our expectations keep getting met.

Howe seems to have his own cognitive dissonance. His own books reveal clearly that Fourth Turnings are always violent and bloody, but he doesn’t seem to want to go there. Even when I met him, he didn’t want to talk about that aspect of the current Fourth Turning. I believe the levels of getting screwed that are happening in our society will lead to violence, social unrest and civil war in this country. But I’m Gen X and always expect the worst.

Generation Screwed and Unscrewed

“Are Millennials the Screwed Generation?” asks Joel Kotkin in Newsweek. A professor of urban studies and an astute observer of social trends, Kotkin answers his own question in the affirmative.

He describes a gauntlet of economic challenges facing today’s under-30 Americans that are, I think, pretty well known to readers of this blog. Some of the adverse trends he cites are mostly of recent (post-2008) origin: High unemployment, falling real median personal and household income, falling median household net worth, a sharply rising share who are living with their parents, a falling share who own their own homes, and (symptomatically) a sharp decline in birthrates by younger moms.

Yet other trends prejudicial to youth, most of which he mentions, have been underway for much longer: a declining national saving rate; rising fiscal deficits; college tuitions rising faster than family incomes; a widening spread between the relative wealth and income of older versus young households; and the steady rise in the share of public spending that goes to the entitled old (pensions, health care)—versus a declining share that goes to future-oriented investment (infrastructure, research, education).

Sounds depressing, I know. But the reason I emphasize how long many of these trends have been at work is to cast a bit of doubt on whether Millennials are really as screwed as all that. Keep in mind that back in the early 1980s, many economists and policymakers commented on the “declining fortunes” of late-wave Boomers who came of age during the energy crises and stagflation. At the time, experts thought that demographic size was the problem: Numbers-driven competition among young workers was depressing Boomer incomes.

Then came the early 1990s, when economists discovered that Gen-Xers–often, at that time, called “Busters”–were even more screwed than Boomers. (Since there were relatively few of these Busters, the demographic explanation was quietly dropped.) From the very beginning, a “reality bites” fatalism about diminished economic possibilities emerged as a cornerstone this generation’s very self-image. Over the next twenty years, as first-wave Gen-Xers moved into their 30s and then their 40s, evidence of “living-standard decline” in their age brackets (despite two-income households and working around the clock) has steadily mounted.

So is there still a good case for calling Millennials yet more “screwed” than these two older generations? I suppose one could argue that Millennials are uniquely penalized because the adverse trends cited above—savings decline, young-old divide, fiscal bias, etc.—are more advanced and pronounced today than when Xers or Boomers were young. One could also point to the extreme severity of the recent recession’s impact on youth—for example, the highest unemployment rate over the most months for young adults than during any downturn since the Great Depression. We know from abundant economic research, starting with Glen Elder’s great book (Children of the Great Depression) that extended unemployment early in life has an impact on future income that lasts long into a person’s career.

On the other hand, of course, one would have to note the even harsher impact of the Great Recession on Gen-Xers and late-wave Boomers (households today age 30 to 60), as I pointed out in my earlier blog post. And who hurts most during a great famine—the guy who thinks he might someday have a home and kids, or they guy who actually has a home and kids?

One would also have to weigh in the balance certain collective advantages Millennials have enjoyed early in life that their elders did not. These include arriving as newborns in an era when mothers were more likely to say their newborn was “wanted” and growing up in an era when parents and families (if not always government) spent more time with them, more money on them, spurred them to achieve, and protected them more from harm. Today, as a result, Millennials have become a generation of youth who commit less crime, cooperate more with each other, take fewer personal risks, and get along much better with their parents. They are also on track to have the highest educational attainment ever (following college completion rates that actually backtracked for late-wave Boomers and early-wave Gen-Xers).

What’s more, most Millennials already know that history favors them. Interesting factoid: When asked if being a young person is harder today than it was when your parents were kids, a growing majority of young people since the late 1990s say no, it’s actually easier being a kid today—after decades of polls (in the ‘70s, ‘80s, and early ‘90s) that leaned the other way, with Boomers and Xers bemoaning, year after year, how much harder being a kid is for them.

Kotkin asserts that this generation still believes in a very conventional definition of life success—most aspiring to a stable career and to owning a home in the suburbs. I agree. The data I’ve seen point in the same direction. My favorite recent survey on this topic is the 2011 MetLife Study of the American Dream, which shows that Millennials are significantly more likely than Xers or Boomers to say that a college degree, acquiring wealth, owning a home, and (yes!) even marriage is “essential” to realizing the American Dream. Most Millennials have a fairly concrete idea of what they want in life, together with benchmarks for getting there, and thus far most surveys (admittedly, not the depressing Rutgers survey cited by Kotkin) indicate that they remain confident that they will someday get there.

But to me, the most persuasive argument for not regarding Millennials as America’s most “screwed” generation is simply this: They are still young. Even if the economy continues to deteriorate, a steady recovery that gets underway by the early 2020s will still save the future for most of them. At roughly age 20 to 40, in this case, most Millennials will still be able to launch successful careers in an expanding economy. Moreover, they will be able to buy homes at record-low prices and buy stock portfolios at record-low P/E ratios. Which means, by the time they fully occupy midlife in the late 2040s (at roughly age 45 to 65), they may be doing far better at that time, relative to other generations, than people that age are doing today.

So who really is the most screwed generation? When it comes to aggregate economic security and upward mobility, I think the most screwed generation already know who they are: Generation X. Consider the scenario described above. More chaos followed by a steady recovery starting a decade from now would come too late for most Xers—who by then (their first-wavers hitting their early 60s and thinking about retirement) may be looking at senior benefits programs whose generosity has just been cut way back in the name of fiscal austerity and renewed economic growth. Any Xer protest is likely to be weak and ineffectual. Most Boomers will be grandfathered, and most of the public’s attention will be focused on saving America’s future for the Millennials.

As Bill and I forecast twenty years ago back in 13th-Gen (I’ve changed the “13ers” here to “Gen-Xers”):

Reaching midlife, the Gen-Xers’ economic fears will be confirmed: They will become the only generation born this century (the first since the Gilded) to suffer a one-generation backstep in living standards. Compared to their own parents at the same age, the Xers’ poverty rate will be higher, their rate of homeownership lower, their pension and healthcare benefits skimpier. They will not match the Boomers’ inflation-adjusted levels of disposable income or wealth, at the same age. Gen-Xers will also experience a much wider distribution of income and wealth than today’s older generations, with startling proportions either falling into destitution or shooting from rags to riches… Finding their youthful dreams broken on the shoals of market-place reality, Xers will internalize their disappointment. Around the year 2020, accumulated “hard knocks” will give midlife Xers much of the same gritty determination about life that they gave the midlife Lost during the Great Depression or the Gilded during Reconstruction.

Twenty years later, I think this prediction still stands. As I read back over it, the only adjustment I would make is to say “early-wave Boomers” where we wrote “Boomers.” But now let me move on to something else about Xers—the fact that the economy will recover, in part, precisely because Generation X chooses not to insist on its rightful public entitlement in old age. We wrote about that in 13th-Gen, as well:

Nor will Gen-Xers ever effectively organize or vote in their own self-interest. Instead, they will take pride in what they don’t receive, in their lifelong talent for getting by on their own, and in their ability to divert government resources to help the young. Policy experts who today worry about the cost of Social Security and Medicare past the year 2025 seldom reflect on the political self-image of those who will then be entering their late sixties. Entitled “senior citizens”? Hardly. Like Lost Generation elders in 1964–who voted more for Goldwater than any younger generation even after he promised to slash their retirement benefits—old Xers will feel less deserving of public attention than richer and smarter young people who lack their fatalism about life.

Even back in 1993 we had the concepts of generational archetypes firmly in mind. As readers of The Fourth Turning know, Gen-Xers belong to same (Nomad) archetype as the Lost Generation. The location in history of both generations, which manifests so many obvious parallels early in life, will continue (I think) to track each other moving forward. Who is getting hurt worst in the current age of stagnation and deleveraging? Late-wave Boomers (born after 1950) to some extent, mostly by have their home and retirement assets values hit hard; Generation X most of all; and early-wave Millennials to some extent, mostly by delayed career starts. Who got hit worst in the Great Depression? Late-wave Missionaries (born after 1870) to some extent, mainly by losing their savings in failed banks in the early 1930s; the Lost Generation most of all; and early-wave G.I.s to some extent, mostly by having their careers put on hold until VE- and VJ-Day. Same archetypes, same patterns.

Koktin points out that today’s hard times are pushing most Millennials in the developed world politically toward the left—that is, toward a greater commitment to national collective action by government. We’ve witnessed this trend in every election globally since 2008—including of course the massive 2-to-1 margin by U.S. Millennials for Obama in 2008. (In the fall of 2012, U.S. Millennials will almost certainly give another large margin for Obama, but it will be smaller than in 2008 and whether it will be enough to win the election is uncertain; this is an issue I will handle in a future post.)

These political trends also have interesting parallels in the last saeculum. The Lost Generation, as we document in Generations and The Fourth Turning, leaned Republican and libertarian all its life. The Lost hated President Wilson for the fiasco of World War I; voted heavily for Harding, Coolidge, and Hoover (though it turned against Hoover with the Bonus Army); comprised the most visible and colorful opponents of FDR; and voted GOP after WWII all the way to Goldwater. The party valence turned sharply the other way, however, for cohorts born after 1900—those who missed WWI, who belonged (like John Steinbeck) to entirely different artistic circles than the likes of Hemingway and Fitzgerald, and who were disposed to mobilize around a new trust in community after the Crash of ‘29.

Although no one collected age-graded polling back in the 1930s, some historians estimate that a very large majority—perhaps 85 percent—of voters under age 35 voted for FDR and the Democratic Party in 1936. It is widely agreed that this is the first election in which a clear majority of young African-Americans voted for the Democratic Party rather than the party of Abraham Lincoln. Consulting our own American Leadership Database, we are able to confirm that 28 out of 32 (88 percent) of G.I. senators, representatives, and governors sent to Congress in 1936 were Democrats. By 1940, 75 percent of incoming G.I.s were still Democrats.

Read the numbers, Republicans, and weep. That is, unless your new Mormon, whiz-kid, C-suite candidate is able to project a stronger, more hands-on image of strong national leadership than Barack Obama—which may not be setting the bar too high. Anything is possible.

One last point. To most Millennials, the whole whiney victimization card (look at me, I’m screwed!) seems like such a stale trope of Boomers and Gen-Xers, that they instinctively recoil from it. And right on cue, a bona fide Millennial offers a cocky and defiant reply to Kotkin in the Washington Post (“Generation Unscrewed”)—though in a sardonic (“It’s the End of the World as We Know It (and I Feel Fine)”) tone that may leave all generations mystified.

HOW MANY MORE WILL SNAP?

A portrait of James Holmes is beginning to reveal itself. Personally, I feel what has been revealed about his life should make people more worried. At least with the Tucson murders we could comfort ourselves with the fact that Jared Loughner was clearly a crazed lunatic and his background revealed multiple signs that he would eventually do something crazy. We could blame the system, his parents, drugs, or mental illness. It made us feel safer to rationalize the behavior of a lunatic. But this time something is different.

This kid was brought up in a normal household in San Diego with what appear to be normal parents. He was an athlete who played on the football and soccer teams in high school. He was on the quiet side, but had friends. He worked as a counselor for underpriveleged kids. He liked video games. He was very smart. He graduated from college at the top of his class with a degree in neuroscience, not some worthless liberal arts degree that we like to scorn. But he couldn’t find a job after college. He was forced to work at a McDonalds. Then he tried to hide out in Grad School in Denver, far away from his family and friends.

Now this is why you should be worried. How many young people fit this description? My guess is hundreds of thousands. They did everything right. They listened to their parents. They didn’t get into trouble. They did well in school. They had pretty high self esteem. Then they graduated from college and the real world beckoned. But the country has been gutted by the warfare, welfare, Wall Street policies over the last three decades. There are few if any decent jobs for even the brightest young people. Over the last two years this kid has been holed up in his tiny apartment, accumulating more student loan debt, and getting progressively more depressed and bitter at the world. He’s done everything he thought he needed to do to become successful, but he’s a failure. He keeps asking himself why, but there is no logical answer. The anger against society builds until his mind is overwhelmed with thoughts of revenge against somebody and everybody. Something snapped after months of depression, anger and disillusionment with our unfair system.

There are reports that he was dressed like the Joker. The Dark Knight series of movies are particularly bleak, dark, violent, and not particularly optimistic about our future. People are desperately seeking some sort of logical motive for this mass murder. They will not find one. There is a scene in the first Dark Knight movie that captures the essence of what James Holmes did. This quote from Alfred says it all:

“Some men just want to watch the world burn.”

No comfort can be gained by categorizing James Holmes as a lunatic. He wasn’t a lunatic for the first 22 years of his life. Did our warped society create the lunatic? Did our economic system that rewards financial criminals, corrupt politicians, and mega-corporations create the lunatic? Did our suburban sprawl, faceless, nameless, materialistic, greedy society create the lunatic? Admit it. The biography of this kid matches many 24 year olds that you know. It might even match the biography of your own son. That is why you should worry. It seems the discussion is already centered around gun control and whether someone with a gun could have prevented this tragedy. I’m not surprised. These are things that we have control over. No one wants to talk about why a seemingly normal young person could snap. We better get a handle on that question, because there are hundreds of thousands of men like James Holmes out there facing the exact same circumstances.

Money in America – the Publication

When this project began, it came from one random thought: that few had ever seen a U.S. silver certificate. The first post became many.

The writing involved research and discovery; I learned new things along the way, went on tangents, refined the narrative and passed it along. Once finished, it still felt incomplete. So I collated all the posts into one document and put it on Scribd.

Your suggestions led to Amazon and I had quite another project in mind about there. A while back someone had mentioned CreateSpace, aha.

https://www.createspace.com/Products/Book/

The good news is, there’s much information there; the bad news is, I’ve seen better organized web sites. After several hours of poking around various sections, I understood the phrase, “A little learning is a dangerous thing.” Having acquired an associate diploma, Professional Writing and Editing (with particular focus on print layout) I left with more questions on their process.

I’d looked at some of the topics and followed some threads in the community forums. The following day, I registered and decided the only way to see how it worked was to have a go, and like Indiana Jones, make it up as I went along. Despite my misapprehension from the website (Overview / Cover / Interior etc.) after the administrative bump, you do start with the interior content.

Well, it was far easier than I expected. The ‘Create a book’ button takes to a login page, from there, a multi-step process begins. Enter a title, fill out various form info – including the droll ‘reporting to the IRS’ topic (Big Brother is everywhere!) and follow the creating steps in sequence. There are options along the way, including for-pay professional help. On your own, you can exit at any stage and return to that step later.

Early on, you have the option of taking the free ISBN number provided by CreateSpace (such a deal!) But there is flexibility if others require another way.

There’s plenty of good advice from other users in the community. There are various industry standard templates to use in word processing software. You will need to know some details about formats, both text and graphics.

Both of the images I’d used were snagged from the web and caused the one autocheck error in the test of my PDF file: CS process wants 300 dpi for images and typically from the web one has 72 dpi. A simple matter to convert.

As I run Ubuntu linux and the Open Office suite, and the Gimp (Graphic Image Manipulation Program) a couple of tweaks fixed the problem. (Both of those programs have Windows versions, btw.) And with OO, I can save as .doc format or alternates and also export a PDF which CS prefers. You will select a book size (aka, trim size – page dimensions) this is where the template comes in, and there are various industry-standard sizes, in both plain and formatted types.

As mentioned, your images need to be 300 dpi (which I had not checked aforehand) and the PDF must have the fonts embedded. There is a tickbox in Open Office to do this – embedding a font insures ‘what you see is what you get’ as there are untold numbers and styles of fonts.

Once the process determines your file is acceptable, there is an Interior Reviewer to inspect. This gives you an online squiz and the ability to spot mistakes, a final proof read.

If the ‘robot’ has found no errors, it’s on to the next step: a final check, apparently by a real person, and an email will be sent confirming the digital proof is acceptable. And you can download a copy. Onscreen it’s suggested you can go on to the next step, which is the Cover Designer. There are five pages of styles, and optional images from their gallery.

Once you select a type, you can modify, include an author image, back cover text, style and colour for front title and author name, a lot of options.

I made my choices, and ‘go’. A confirmation email will be sent within 48 hours.

OK. From the time I asked a last question in a forum on Saturday the 30^th, to starting and completing the project was but a few hours. The confirmation “Proof is ready to order” was here on 1 July. Yay! I immediately opted for five copies (the max at cost, $2.55) and 48 minutes later, the email confirming the proofs were shipped. Woah!

From a file to a book in under a day? “We have the technology!”

And surely the dinosaurs trying to prop up a 20^th century business model here and now are Very Scared. By comparison, in 1993 I offered a project to a business publisher in Melbourne. Not exactly their area, but no one else in Australia had published anything on computer bulletin boards. They went for it. Months later, it was ready (all the delays due to them.) Cover price, $20 and my cut, $1,50 a unit – but you had to chase them twice a year to get the royalty checks.

Not the best experience, but it was good having a book in hand, even better when it ended up on university recommended reading lists.

I haven’t run the final figures for the Amazon book but the rough example I put through earlier was

For a 184 page black and white book, you set your USD list price at $8.99. A customer purchases your book on Amazon.com and a book is printed to fulfill that order.

Sales Channel % = $3.60

Fixed Charge = $0.85

Per Page Charge = $2.20

Your Royalty = $2.34

My later check for my project yielded “@ $8.95 for MIA, royalty $2.82 Amazon.com, $4.61 CS eStore.

Returning to CS, there was one more step, they offer the option to link to Kindle Direct Publishing. CreateSpace is part of the Amazon group of companies. And the completion of their create process offers the option of going to Kindle Direct Publishing. KDP. Maybe … I’ll just come back here later, and opted to find out more my own way.At that point, CS offers download of the book cover and the digital proof PDF but cautions that KDP does not like PDF. *shrug*

So I then delve into their requirements of formats. And look at their forums. Oh, my, why do things get so complicated?

CreateSpace is ‘part of Amazon’ but you need to register with them. With KDP, you use your existing Amazon account to sign in. Hmmm …Here’s the KDP home page:

https://kdp.amazon.com/self-publishing/signin

And a link to a “Getting Started” page with a link to a “Do It Yourself” option. OK. This offers building your book for Kindle, and a second link for Mac.

The first, being Mcrosoft-centric … argh! No thanks, I don’t need a Kindle Edition even if it IS free, because I don’t have a Kindle! So I poke around the website for info on what format they really really prefer and can I do it their way?!

Back to the home page > Prepare Your Book > Types of Formats. Uh huh.

“KDP accepts most DOC files for eBook conversion;”

Long story short after much travail. Like the old commercial said, “Oils ain’t oils, Sol.” No, some .doc files are more equal than others, especially if they are ~proprietary~ (sneer quotes intentional!)

And KDP also accepts ePub, Plain Text, .mobi or .prc, HTML, Rich Text Format … and PDF (but maybe only if it Adobe-centric(?) Or not or WTF?

At that point, it’s another “suck it and see”.

What was so easy with CS is grrrr! time and it’s getting late and I plunge ahead. More forms, cluttered, and wanting information already produced for the book version but alas, it’s flash time – c’n’p. With the preliminaries out of the way, it’s upload the interior. I save a .doc but it no like. I export an HTML but no … and I’m searching more ~help~ on the website. Near as I can figure, the preferred HTML (if it conforms to the Supported Tags) would be generated as a Filtered HTML from Microsoft Word.

WTF is that?

Wasn’t the whole hassle of computerization in the early days about interchanceability and compatibility? Like some unknown genius said a long time ago: “The nice thing about computer standards is, there’s so many of them.”

Now, if I could understand what it is they REALLY wanted, I could probably build it, made by hand. Or I could just give up and use a Microsoft box.

But I tried various conversions, even HTML and inspecting the source and see the data for the two images but no. Dammit! Oh wot the hell, I throw my CS .pdf at it and the computer seems to hang … bloody hell … but I find there’s an alert box had popped up about the previous attempted upload, only it’s under another window. Whimper. X that. Hit the upload again … I see no activity and suddenly, Conversion completed successfully.

I should add that on this process page were several form entries that disappeared more than once. Obviously the geeks that write the code here need some lessons from the CS crowd. But magically, it seems that I’m moving along. And I can view the ‘proof’ in a little window and begin and suddenly I am passed on to another page and it’s all done. WTF? Why, how?

And I didn’t have the option of downloading the completed file, probably because I don’t have a registered Kindle. Nor could I read it anyway, one of their pages said so. Oh, there are free Kindle readers for PC and one for Mac.

Argh. And I see the first email next morning, rec’d 04:25:21, “The book “Money in America” you recently submitted to KDP has been published to the Kindle Store and is already available* for readers to purchase here.

So, yesterday I Google for linux kindle reader and … WTF”

Search returns with some mentions of open source approaches and also:

https://read.amazon.com/about

for the Kindle Cloud Reader.

Kindle Cloud Reader runs in your web browser but looks and acts just like an app—and you can continue reading even if you lose your internet connection

Another anomaly from the site … several pages refer to the ~fact~ that kindle’s don’t handle tables. But the specs for the new, improved models state that table rendering has been added, yay.

Well, I haven’t actually seen my finished Kindle product yet. If it looks like a dog’s breakfast, I’m Han Solo: “It’s not my fault!”

Really, the takehome lesson from this experience is, the problem had to do with two images in my original. And yes, a couple of minor flaws by using my own template which was designed with “white space” … i.e., more readable on the screen”. Oh well, trial-and-error (rinse and repeat) worked for Edison.

I’m sure the next project will go much easier.

DARK KNIGHT MEETS REALITY

So much for funny Friday. I woke up to the news below. A crazed gunman methodically and systematically slaughtered 14 young people and wounded 50 others at the midnight opening of The Dark Knight Rises. He had multiple weapons and used tear gas to disorient his victims before murdering them. It was clear that he planned this well in advance. The authorities have not released his name or any details about his motive. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess his background. I bet he is a 20 year old white guy. We will find out he was a loner in high school. He never had a girlfriend and had few or no friends. His parents are probably divorced. He doesn’t have a job. He’s felt alienated from society and has been living in a fantasy world for years. Somebody probably assessed his mental state within the last two years and concluded he was a danger to himself and others, but the system did nothing. In retrospect, there will be a list of clear signs that he would eventually go off, but no one wanted to get involved.

I think his choice of this movie was purposeful. He didn’t choose Hangover 2. He chose a movie about alienation, pain, societal collapse and darkness. This was done as a statement about our increasingly degenerative society. People communicate on electronic devices. We hole up in our houses or apartments, cut off from human contact. There are evil villians sucking the last vestiges of wealth from the lowly serfs. The anger, pain and disillusion are palpable throughout society. People are confused. They can’t figure out the enemy. Government can’t protect you. Government is the main reason for this alienation. The kneejerk reaction of the liberal dogooders will be to ban guns, as if guns caused this slaughter. Banning guns will not stop the slow methodical decline of our society. It is much larger than guns. It is our entire culture. Materialism, greed, selfishness, profit at any cost, isolation, lack of personal responsibility, and delusional willfull ignorance have overwhelmed our country.

Fourth Turnings always reach a climax when those on the perceived side of good have a final showdown with the perceived side of evil. We are likely a few years from this showdown, but there is no guarantee that good will vanquish evil. A revolution is on the horizon. Everyone will need to choose sides. There will be no one allowed to stand on the sidelines.

My son and his friends went to the midnight premiere of The Dark Knight Rises last night. He arrived home safely. My heart goes out to the mothers and fathers in Colorado whose children will never return.

WHY ARE GAS PRICES SOARING ON EAST COAST?

The price of gas at the station near my house has gone from $3.45 to $3.64 a gallon in the last 10 days. This is a 5.5% increase in less than two weeks. Gasoline usage in the U.S. has been plunging all year. The war rhetoric with Iran has been subdued. The economy is clearly in recession. WTF???

Oil prices and gas prices should be declining. But oil topped $89 per barrel this morning, back to the levels of late May, and $11 higher than 3 weeks ago. The three charts below paint an odd picture. East coast cities like Boston and Philly are experiencing a much larger surge than Chicago and LA. Of course, prices in Chicago and LA are still 6% to 8% higher than East Coast prices, likely due to taxes. I’m baffled by the relatively flat prices in Chicago and LA. Maybe someone out there has some insight.

The last chart shows the lag in prices rising for oil versus gasoline. Within the next month people on the East Coast will be paying $3.70 per gallon and the Midwest and West Coast will again push above $4.00 per gallon. This will be a further boost to food prices, as all those drought stricken crops need to be transported by truck to your local Piggly Wiggly.

With a full blown recession and surging food and energy costs, how Obama gets re-elected in November is beyond me. As he grows desperate, will he purposely generate either a war or social unrest in our cities? His only chance to retain power will be to distract the masses from their economic plight.

TRUST US

The Roger Waters concert Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park was almost too spectacular to put into words. Fighter planes crashing into the stage and exploding, flying pigs, enormous hideous teachers towering over little children, Waters dressed as a Nazi and firing a machine gun into the audience, and a notable anti-corporate fascist state, anti-war theme. During the intermission literally hundreds of photos of humans killed in war since 1900 were projected onto the massive Wall with their birth date, death date and short biography. The pictures and stories were sent in by fans from all over the world. It was truly touching and personalized the human result of endless war.

Waters dedicated the show to Jean Charles de Menezes, a Brazilian man shot in the head seven times at Stockwell tube station on the London Underground by the London Metropolitan police after he was misidentified as one of the fugitives involved in the previous day’s failed bombing attempts. These events took place two weeks after the London bombings of 7 July 2005, in which 52 people were killed. On the day of the shooting, the police were hunting four men believed to be involved in the failed bombing attempts the day before. Intelligence had linked the men to a block of flats in Tulse Hill, south London, the same building in which Menezes was living. Police put the communal entrance under surveillance, and on the morning of the shooting, saw Menezes leave the building. Plain clothes officers, armed with pistols, followed him as he took a bus to Brixton tube station, before boarding another to Stockwell tube station because the tube station at Brixton was closed. Specialist firearms officers were called to Stockwell. Just after Menezes entered a train, several officers wrestled him to the ground and fired seven bullets into his head at point blank range. The train was still at the platform with its doors open, having just been evacuated by officers.

NO ONE WAS EVER CHARGED OR HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR HIS WRONGFUL DEATH.

The entire show was visually overwhelming and a powerful statement. Roger Waters is the ultimate showman. He said that he hated performing live in his youth. He seems to have grown into it. He plays the evil dictator with panash.

The band he assembled was stellar. David Gilmour is irreplaceable, but the combination of G.E. Smith, David Kilminster, and Snowy White on guitar and Robbie Wyckoff handling Gilmour’s vocals was just fine as you will see in the videos taken by my son Kevin. The stage and Wall was immense, taking up the entire outfield. The gates opened at 7:00 for the 8:45 show. We arrived at 7:15. I wanted to soak in as much as possible, plus I wanted a Tony Lukes cheesesteak before the show. We chowed down on fine Philly fare and then bought four overpriced concert shirts. I wore my BurningPlatform.com shirt to the show. I didn’t run into anyone else with a TBP shirt.

The show opens with Outside the Wall and I was immediately amused by the graphic on the wall. It said:

If at first you don’t succeed, call in an airstrike.

I knew I was going to like this show. While the show progresses the roadies are building the wall.

The local children brought on stage to perform Another Brick in the Wall with Waters and fight back against the 50 foot teacher were thanked by Waters in one of his more sedate moments.

http://youtu.be/NNBFKXM0hEw

The show is a combination of concert and movie. The visuals and symbolism are stunning.

The Wall becomes a canvas for Waters’ art and visionary view of the world.

Waters is able to get his anti-war message across through the use of music, images, film, quotes and cartoons. His use of film showing soldiers hugging their children, interspersed with the words of a general and pictures of starving children is powerful, as you can see.

“Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower

Goodbye Blue Sky is a haunting song with visuals of birds flying and being replaced with thousands of bombers dropping blood red symbols like dollar signs, the hammer & sickle, Chinese star, Shell Oil sign, Mercedes sign, crosses and the Jewish star. The message was that our corporate fascist military state kills for profit.

One of the highlights of the concert for me was Waters performing a duet with himself from 1980 on the song Mother. As you can see from the video, people are losing faith in governments across the globe. The crowd was a mixture of old farts like myself, people in their 20’s and 30’s, and teens dragged to the concert by their old man. When Waters sings the line, “Do you trust the government?”, the stadium erupted with a thunderous NOOOOO!!!! See for yourself.

The guitar work by GE Smith on Comfortably Numb and Hey You is phenomenal. Waters doesn’t have much to do except strike the Wall near the end of this piece with the predictable outcome.

http://youtu.be/GGS63DEPAGo

The imposing fully built Wall stays in place for all of Act 2, which opens with Hey You.

http://youtu.be/Ct37LF6wgBY

At the end of the concert during the finale of Outside the Wall, the entire wall comes crashing down. The message I took away from the concert was that our civilization is under the control of corporate fascist warmongers. Profits at any human price is the mantra. The fact that Waters is still free to use his artistry to reaveal the truth to 40,000 people gives me hope. The fact that I can write about it and have thousands read the message gives me hope. The fact that my three Millenial sons get the message about government tyranny and corporate malfeasance gives me hope. If enough people see the light and begin to resist, we can tear down that wall.