Tag: birth death

PAYROLL REPORT IS A DISASTER

Some Marketwatch Moron faux journalist – Rex Nutjob – is attempting to convince the ignorant masses that their pay is actually going up, when they know it is not. Today’s jobs report is an unequivocal disaster and again confirms recession. The BLS has some major cojones reporting that the unemployment rate plunged to a new 7 year low of 5.3%. Absolutely hysterical. Those guys really have a sense of humor. The blaring headline says we added 223,000 jobs. Of course, the reported numbers for the prior two months were drastically cut by 60,000 jobs. The talking heads never mention that. This number will be slashed in future months and not mentioned. And of course, the good old birth death adjustment added 109,000 more phantom jobs that weren’t really created. This 223,000 number is a farce.

Reality bites, as the other report showed that employed Americans DROPPED by 56,000 in June. That is more like it. A critical thinking person might ask, how could the unemployment rate DROP from 5.5% to 5.3% if there are 56,000 less employed Americans and the number of working age Americans went up by 208,000.

EASY PEASY – Your fine government drones at the BLS actually want the ignorant unemployed masses to believe that 640,000 Americans decided to voluntarily leave the work force in one fucking month because life is so good. They don’t need no stinking jobs. Who needs money to buy food, gas, and pay the rent? Orwell’s 1984 does not hold a candle to the misinformation, lies, and propaganda issued by the rulers today.

The labor force participation rate hit a 38 year low of 62.6%. Jimmy Carter was President. Do you remember how good those times were? Well the BLS, MSM and Wall Street think today’s jobs data is wonderful. It is as clear as a bright sunny day that this economy went into the dumper the second QE3 ended in October 2014. Since October, 1.4 million Americans got jobs, while 1.2 million left the workforce. The number of working age Americans went up by 2.0 million over this same time frame, but the government and their MSM mouthpieces of propaganda want you to believe the unemployment rate fell from 5.8% to 5.3%. It’s laughable, but it’s not a joke. The depth of their deception knows no bounds. The worse things get, the more they will lie and attempt to obscure the truth.

Continue reading “PAYROLL REPORT IS A DISASTER”

THERE GOES THE JOBS RECOVERY STORYLINE

The Wall Street jackoffs all expected an increase in jobs of 200,000 to 250,000 for August. I guess being off by 30% to 40% is considered accurate for an Ivy League educated economist making over $1 million per year. The manipulated, massaged, seasonally adjusted, excel spreadsheet employment data has been released for public consumption by our keepers. They will now tell you what you are supposed to believe regarding the fake numbers. Maybe the weather was too warm for hiring. Maybe it rained or didn’t rain. Maybe ISIS and the looming threat of terrorist attack is deterring employers from hiring. It couldn’t have anything to do with Obamacare, Federal Reserve policies, government regulations and taxes, or the fact that families have 40% less net worth today than they had in 2007.

It’s actually far worse than the reported headline. One survey says 142,000 jobs were added. Of course the BLS excel spreadsheet birth/death adjustment added 102,000 jobs to the calculation, the highest adjustment for August in history. We all know small businesses are hiring like mad before full implementation of Obamacare after the elections. The broader population survey shows that only 16,000 more people were employed in August than in July. The MSM is silent about that number. The sheep must be kept sedated.

And now for the best part. While reporting horrifically bad employment numbers, our beloved BLS drones also reported the unemployment rate dropping to 6.1%, the lowest rate in six years. Glory be!!! The economy must be booming and workers must be so ecstatic they are spending like there’s no tomorrow. What? Retail sales have been declining? How can this be? It sure smells like someone took a shit under the bed and won’t admit it. But let’s ignore the cognitive dissonance you are feeling and dig into the bullshit BLS numbers to get a few kernels of truth:

  • The labor force participation rate fell to its 36 year low of 62.8%. There are 248.2 million working age Americans and only 146.4 million of them are employed. What are the other 101.8 million working age Americans doing? The labor participation rate in 2007 was over 66%. It was 67% in 2000.
  • Here is a Common Core Math question for you. If the number of working age Americans goes up by 206,000 and the number of employed Americans only goes up by 16,000, how could the unemployment rate FALL from 6.2% to 6.1%? I know. That’s a real puzzler unless you can learn to think like a government lackey or a politician. You see, according to the BLS, in the midst of a supposed economic recovery, 268,000 Americans just willingly decided to leave the workforce because they no longer need a job. There are now 92.3 million people who are so financially well off that they have left the workforce and do not want a job. The laughability of these figures is off the fucking charts.

  • Since the start of Obama’s economic recovery 6.5 million Americans have found jobs (mostly part-time and shitty service jobs), while over 10 million have left the workforce. Presto!!!! – an unemployment rate plunging from 10% to 6%. I love government math. I wish I could use it in my everyday life. I’d be a multi-millionaire without working.

To show you how warped and fucked up our economic system has become, as soon as the terrible employment numbers were released the stock market futures rallied. The greedy fucks and their HFT supercomputers feed off the carcasses of the middle class like vultures. We are living in an era of storylines. The Deep State attempts to paint the rosiest picture, while real people in the real world become more impoverished by the day. Every storyline is crushed by reality. It wasn’t the weather. There is no jobs recovery. There is no real GDP growth. QE and ZIRP have not benefited you or anyone not in the top .1%. Everything you are told by the government, Wall Street or the MSM is a lie. Will the sheep ever revolt? I don’t think so. The iPhone 6 is coming out next week and the NFL season kicked off last night. How about them Seahawks?

We’re doomed.

VIRTUALLY NO ONE IN COUNTRY GETS A NEW JOB IN LAST TWO MONTHS, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE KEEPS FALLING

The brilliant Ivy League educated Wall Street employed economists and financial gurus predicted there would be 180,000 new jobs added in January and the pitiful December number of 74,000 would be revised upward. I guess missing by 37% is considered fine work for an Ivy League economist. Bonuses for everyone!!!

To give you some perspective, the working age population has risen by 348,000 in the last two months and one survey says that 188,000 jobs were created, while the other survey says that 781,000 more people are employed. This data is coming from the same BLS government drones. Which numbers are true, because they both can’t be right.

Do you really believe there has been a hiring surge in the last two months that has driven the unemployment rate down to a six year low? If you believe that, I have some fine beach front real estate in Syria I’d like to sell you.

A gander at the old birth death model might explain some of the discrepancy. The old seasonally adjusted bullshit excel model subtracted the least amount of jobs since 2008. This model is supposed to capture what is happening at small businesses. Do you really think that small businesses are hiring more people and laying off less people than they have done historically? Do you think Obamacare, declining retail sales, declining real household income, and higher taxes have convinced small business owners to ramp up hiring? Do you think the BLS model is capturing the closing of thousands of retail outlets across the country?

Here are a couple of pithy observations you won’t get from Jim Cramer and Steve Liesman as they spin the data for CNBC:

  • The working age population has risen by 2.3 million in the last year and only 1.8 million more Americans are employed (at low paying part time jobs). AMAZINGLY, the unemployment rate has PLUNGED from 7.9% to 6.6% over this same time frame. You’d have to be an ignoramus or an Ivy League economist to believe that BLS bullshit.
  • According to these BLS drones, 2.5 million Americans LEFT the workforce of their own free will because they supposedly no longer want a job. Is this a lie or has Obama made it so beneficial to live off welfare, food stamps, and SSDI that people have just decided to live off the state?
  • Think about the fact that almost 40% more Americans left the workforce in the last year than got a crappy job. Obama should have boasted about that fact during the SOTU that no one watched.
  • Over 10 million Americans have left the workforce during Obama’s reign of error, while the number of employed Americans is where it was in 2008. WINNING!!!!!
  • The BLS drones tell us that average wages are up 1.9% in the last year. If the unemployment rate has plunged, demand for workers should be higher and wages should be rising. Who’s lying?
  • Is your inflation rate more than 1.9%? I would say my inflation rate is closer to 5%. That means real wages are falling hard. I wonder why Christmas sales were so horrific across the board? If more people are employed and the GDP is rising by 4%, how come consumers didn’t spend?

The truth is that the BLS, CNBC, Wall Street and the rest of the propaganda mouthpieces for the ruling elite have one purpose and one purpose only. They are tasked with misinforming you, lying to you, keeping you sedated, and allowing the financial elite to keep ass raping you until they have extracted every last penny from your bank account. Know your enemy.

January Payolls Big Miss Again At 113K Below 180K Expected, December Unrevised

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/07/2014 08:35 -0500

So much for the hope of either a surge in January jobs, or a massive upward revision in the December print. Moments ago the January jobs number came out and at 113K, it was a huge miss to the expected 180K, but more importantly, the December number which was expected to be revised much higher was virtually unchanged at 75K, compared to 74K originally. The unemployment rate, which has become largely irrelevant, dipped to 6.6% from 6.7%, just so Obama can get the brownie points for fixing the economy. However, judging by the market reaction this is hardly what the traders think.

From the report:

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 10.2 million, and the unemployment rate, at 6.6 percent, changed little in January. Since October, the jobless rate has decreased by 0.6 percentage point. (See table A-1.)  (See the note and tables B and C for information about the effect of annual population adjustments to the household survey estimates.)

 

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (6.2 percent), adult women (5.9 percent), teenagers (20.7 percent), whites (5.7 percent), blacks (12.1 percent), and Hispanics (8.4 percent) showed little change in January. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), down by 1.7 percentage points over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

 

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 3.6 million, declined by 232,000 in January. These individuals accounted for 35.8 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million over the year. (See table A-12.)

 

After accounting for the annual adjustment to the population controls, the civilian labor force rose by 499,000 in January, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.0 percent. Total employment, as measured by the household survey, increased by 616,000 over the month, and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.2 percentage point to 58.8 percent. (See table A-1. For additional information about the effects of the population adjustments, see table C.)

 

* * *

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 113,000 in January. In 2013, employment growth averaged 194,000 per month. In January, job gains occurred in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining. (See table B-1.)