Guest Post by David Rosenberg
It is clear that it would have been a very hard sell a year ago that every single risk-on asset class from equities, to corporate bonds, to commodities would end up rallying as much as they did in 2019.
And so perhaps the message for 2020 is to fade all the optimism since fading the pessimism a year ago paid off very well. The sharp slide in Treasury yields this past year does not exactly comport with the risk-on view that has morphed into the consensus forecast.
Fed policy, the trajectory of GDP growth and global economic fundamentals in general all tell a cautionary tale. Both bonds and stocks can’t be right at this moment in time.
Continue reading “This turbocharged debt cycle will end miserably — it’s just a matter of when”
