EVEN THE BLS HAS RUN OUT OF BULLSHIT – RECESSION CONFIRMED

43 comments

Posted on 3rd April 2015 by Administrator in Economy |Politics |Social Issues

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It sure is lucky those Ivy League educated economists at those Wall Street criminal banks are paid millions per year. How else could we get such accurate forecasts about job growth in the U.S. These mental midgets predicted 245,000 new Obama jobs (bartenders, waitresses, house cleaners, clerks, fry cooks) in March. Even the BLS has run out of bullshit and lies. Those dramatic job increases in January and February were cut by 69,000 jobs. That is a 13% error. If I make a 13% error doing my job, I’d be fired. The BLS government drones have the power to move markets with their bullshit reports. It’s funny how the negative revision is put at the very end of their 2,000 word press release.

But getting back to the accuracy of Ivy League educated Wall Street economists – they missed by 50%. That entitles them to a $250,000 bonus. The Establishment Survey showed a pitiful 126,000 increase in low paying service jobs in March. Get prepared for the usual weather excuse. They’ve been using it for the last four months. How many companies make hiring decisions based on the weather outside? Really? Do these highly educated assholes actually expect us to believe the temperature outside stops companies from hiring? Hysterically, the BLS says that 72,000 phantom jobs were created by new companies, even though we know for a fact that more companies are closing than opening. This 126,000 number will be revised to a negative number two years from now in a press release on a Friday afternoon.

And it gets better. The Establishment Survey is the good news. The Household Survey, that calculates the fake unemployment rate, had even more dreadful results. It showed only 34,000 more people employed than last month. It shows only 130,000 more people employed YTD versus the 390,000 in the other survey. Which number do you not believe the most?

So according to the BLS’ own numbers, the working age population has gone up by 357,000 since January, while 130,000 people became employed, but the unemployment rate somehow fell from 5.7% to 5.5%. Anyone with two brain cells has to be stifling their laughter, as the BLS drones try to argue that 631,000 working age Americans voluntarily left the workforce and aren’t really unemployed. The gall of these government scumbags is off the credibility charts. They expect critical thinking individuals to believe the labor participation rate is at a 35 year low by choice. What a crock of shit. The fact is that at least 9 million more people want jobs and don’t have them. That makes the unemployment rate at least 11%, even by their calculations.

By calculations used before the government became captured and propaganda became the method of controlling the proles, the unemployment rate is actually 23%. Which figure seems more accurate to you?

Anyone living in the real world knows the economy has clearly been going into the tank since the Fall of last year. Since November the number of people leaving the labor force is virtually the same as the number of people getting jobs. And of course we have the 2.1% annual increase in wages. Wage growth has stagnated at 2% since 2009. Have your daily living costs stagnated at 2% since 2009? Food costs, health insurance (thanks Obamacare), rents, and a myriad of other daily living expenses are up 5% to 15% over the last year.

So even the government drones have to admit recession has arrived. The Atlanta Fed already is predicting a 0.0% GDP in the first quarter. The entire 2.2% GDP in the 4th quarter was due to increased spending on Obamacare. Real wages are negative. Consumer spending is in the toilet. And Obama is busy telling the rest of the world how to run their countries at the point of cruise missiles. Sounds like a recipe for success. The rich know what to do. Buy stocks because Janet will keep the stock market soaring.

43 Comments
  1. Administrator says:

    “There are no excuses with today’s report. This was a soft print any way you look at it. The headline was up only 126,000, the weakest print since February 2014, net revisions to the last two months subtracted 69,000 jobs, and the workweek fell to 34.5 hours from 34.6 hours.” — Omair Sharif, Newedge.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:19 am

  2. Administrator says:

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    3rd April 2015 at 10:20 am

  3. Mark says:

    Should be good for the stock market.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:22 am

  4. Dutchman says:

    It doesn’t matter. The government will continue to lie and lie and lie – about everything. They lie so much – they don’t know the truth themselves.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:23 am

  5. Administrator says:

    American teenagers still can’t (or won’t) find jobs

    By Quentin Fottrell

    Published: Apr 3, 2015 10:20 a.m. ET

    When it comes to seeking employment, teenagers are still in their own private recession.

    When David Beckham’s son Brooklyn turned 14, the elder Beckham told him to get a job. He did – at a café in London. Speaking on the “Late Late Show” on CBS, Beckham said, “You know what kids are like, they want new soccer boots, they want new sneakers. It came to the point where he turned 14 and I thought, ‘If you want something then go and work, and you’ve got your own money.’”

    Now that the 16-year-old Brooklyn is playing football and models part time, his father says he’s moving on. “I heard him telling his smaller brother the other day and asking him if he would take over his job.”

    Teenage unemployment is triple the overall average, according to the U.S. Department of Labor figures released Friday. Unemployment for teenagers aged 16 to 19 was 17.5% in March 2015 compared with an overall jobless rate of 5.5%, unchanged from last month. A year earlier, the numbers were even worse: 20.9% for teenagers compared with an overall rate of 6.6%. (These data are taken from the department’s Current Population Survey, which includes unemployed people who didn’t work during the period the survey was taken, but actively looked for a job in the prior four weeks and were available to take a job, rather than those still at school.)

    CareerBuilder

    The workforce also appears to be getting progressively older. The percentage of those aged 14 to 18 who were working in 2014 fell by one third since 2001, falling to 2% of the overall workforce last year from 4% in 2001, while the percentage of those working aged 19 to 21 was flat at 6% over the same period, according to a study released last week by jobs listing site CareerBuilder. The percentage of workers aged 22 to 34 was also steady at 29% from 2001 to 2014, while the rates for those aged 35 to 54 fell to 43% from 46% over the same period and those aged 55 and over rose to 20% from 15%.

    Read: American teens don’t want to work

    Why the drop in teen employment? “Slower population growth and a weak economic climate are the primary culprits,” the report found. Many small businesses have complained about the rise in the minimum wage in several states, arguing that it prevents them from hiring young, hourly workers. Although the federal minimum wage is currently $7.25 an hour, 29 states and the District of Columbia have introduced laws hiking their own minimum wage. This week, the city of Seattle said it was phasing in a minimum wage of $11 an hour starting on April 1 for companies with workers of 500 or more employees; Washington state has a minimum wage of $9.47 an hour.

    The number of jobs held by teens aged 14 to 18 fell by 1.7 million — to 3.5 million — from 2001 to 2014. The share of teens employed fell in 75% of occupations, including many staples of after-school and summer work. For instance, the overall share of teens aged 14 to 18 working as counter attendants – the kind of job Brooklyn Beckham took at his father’s behest – fell to 31% last year from 45% a year ago. “They gained in zero occupations,” CareerBuilder concluded.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:25 am

  6. Administrator says:

    Mark

    Futures dropped 165 points after the BLS bullshit report.

    The Plunge Protection Team can meet over the weekend and decide how to pump up the market on Monday morning.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:26 am

  7. Administrator says:

    Don’t believe the lying mainstream media about the Boomers retiring as the reason for the labor participation rate plunging. It’s a lie.

    Participation%20Rate_2_0.jpg

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:32 am

  8. TE says:

    How many are the phantom “small business” jobs? That number has been, will continue to be pure unadulterated bullshit.

    As for “wage increases” since 2009. What a fucking crock. According to the BLS, they include EMPLOYER PAID Healthcare in the “hourly wages.”

    Many workers have seen NO actual pay increase, but the BLS – and these bogus reports – show they have received increased hourly wages because their employer-paid health care now costs twice as much. Bonus is that, for many, their actual take home DROPPED, as the reality of the new high-dollar, and applies to everything except doctor’s co-pay (explains why the AMA backed it), deductibles have kicked in.

    In my company we have doubled the cost for the insurance, and all of us are paying hundreds of dollars more in not-yet-covered-deductible-expenses. Our deductibles are freaking unreal now, and I used to not care for the $3000 ind/$5000 max family, it is now $5000, or $11,000 ind/ $8000 or $15,000 max family (in network and out).

    This is how they cover up destroying the middle class and producers.

    This is EXACTLY what my econ professor, and accounting professor, and accounting boss talked about when the laws were being written by the likes of Gingrich and Greenspan, and signed by the sleezy Bill.

    Even my first accounting prof, when we had lunch a few years later, could see what they could be setting up. I doubt he could envision it this bad. And now he would be a benefit-drawing member of the social security net, I wonder if his vision has changed?

    These freaking reports are going to still be showing blue skies as WE (as in the currently working, business owning, productive), are walking empty industrial areas looking for work of any kind.

    And any one else notice that the reports that come out on holiday weekends are usually the “worse” ones, letting us have a peek at the reality? The bad revisions, missed numbers, all on days when the vast majority are too busy planning yet another day of overeating and overspending on the, very important to ‘murkin Jesus apparently, holiday?

    Nah, just a happy coincidence for our ruling criminals.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 10:42 am

  9. Thinker says:

    Spot the outlier:

    -1x-1.png

    If that doesn’t tell you which number is cooked, nothing will.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 11:32 am

  10. DRUD says:

    There you go again, Admin, trying to apply arithmetic and basic logic to BLS statistics…it is o much simpler to just buy their bullshit 5.5% unemployment rate.

    About 10 years ago I helped a friend of mine open a restaurant. When we were almost ready to open we hired some kids to help with the final touches on the building and then they would become part of the staff…it wasn’t so much that they didn’t like working (for the most part they were really good kids) it was that they didn’t know HOW to work. They didn’t get the concept of busting your ass until you get a job done. I can’t help but contrast this with my father, who simply doesn’t know how NOT to work. The man is 85 and up till last years he used to go work on one of his mining claims for three weeks at a time, by himself camping out and hauling rock out of a drift. That is an old-time work ethic. He gave me a solid work ethic, but nothing like his…it is a generational thing….maybe the coming Fourth Turning will also make us all a lot tougher.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 11:43 am

  11. Victor says:

    Re the labor participation rate and retiring boomers:

    Don’t be fooled by anyone, the participation rate is a percentage of working age adults, retiring boomers are not figured into it since they are past working age and early retirees are few in number including those that have been forced into it -including those forced onto “disability”- by lack of any employment for them.

    Understand that word “percentage” and the term “working age” when you look at the participation rate, total numbers are not percentages by themselves and percentages compensate for numbers when making comparisons to other years.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 11:51 am

  12. starfcker says:

    Calm down. This ain’t nothing sending our jobs overseas and allowing monopolies to flourish can’t fix. Remember what stucky taught me. It’s about the consumer

     

    3rd April 2015 at 12:29 pm

  13. Administrator says:

     

    3rd April 2015 at 1:01 pm

  14. Overthecliff says:

    It has turned. The printing can’t prop it. Up any more. God help us all.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 12:51 pm

  15. TE says:

    The market is up moderately, on this “bad” news.

    Which lets them pretend Janet is going to keep spigots open.

    I firmly believe we are going to see one more major Hail Mary after the shit starts exploding as the banksters gambles and debts and much bigger than they were the last time they almost killed the modern financial world.

    Insanity. But silver is down nearly 2%, yea!

     

    3rd April 2015 at 12:55 pm

  16. Administrator says:

    TE

    The markets are closed today.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 1:06 pm

  17. OutLookingIn says:

    Taurus Excretum.

    Why be surprised about the BLS BS? Same old. Same old. Different day that’s all.

    Same with the “new” daily gold price fix. LBMA old. ICE Benchmark new.
    The seven banks that make up the “new” daily gold price fix:
    1/ Barclays
    2/ Goldman Sachs
    3/ HSBC
    4/ Scotiabank
    5/ SocGen
    6/ UBS
    7/ JP Morgan

    Same old. Same old. The “punishment” will continue until moral improves!

     

    3rd April 2015 at 1:15 pm

  18. Stephanie Shepard says:

    I’m not surprised. I’ve had deja vu circa 2008 for the past 6 months.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 1:40 pm

  19. TE says:

    I just figured that out, and was trying to remember where I said that.

    Thanks.

    The blonde dye must be leeching in.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 1:45 pm

  20. Westcoaster says:

    @TE: Don’t feel bad, I did the same thing (looking at yesterday’s close) but I have no excuse.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 2:51 pm

  21. ss says:

    The worse things get, the more lies government spews out and the bigger the economic bubble becomes. The big money players can’t hold the Ponzi scheme together indefinitely.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 3:45 pm

  22. TE says:

    Just spent awhile (waiting for my dye to finish) on dailyjobcuts.com.

    March brought announced layoffs in:

    Medical (pharm, medical manufacturing, hospitals)
    Manufacturing, manufacturing for energy
    Energy Lawyers
    Energy
    many small biz
    Lifestyle Lift (hundreds across the country)
    Catepillar
    US Steel (not US really, but American workers)
    Sharp, Japan and Worldwide
    Sony is cutting pay (while inflation rages)
    Dell letting go customer service reps in Tennessee
    Jelly Belly
    Cities are starting to have to let go the fire, cops and teachers that free Obama bucks encouraged them to hire/keep when budgets demanded they be let go long ago.

    and that is just a few.

    From STEM to customer service, grocery stores to retail, manufacturing and scientists, there is no recovery.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 4:29 pm

  23. hardscrabble farmer says:

    You need to start listening to NPR. I heard this today-

    Best economy in 40 years, unprecendented jump in hourly earnings, projected growth of 3% per year (they didn’t say how many years, but implied forever).

    They seem to think things are going almost too well.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 7:45 pm

  24. ASIG says:

    Oh yea on the one hand, best economy in 40 years yet on the other hand the economy is way too fragile to even raise interest rates .25 point without it going into a tail spin.

     

    3rd April 2015 at 9:22 pm

  25. NickelthroweR says:

    Greetings,

    I can’t help but think of the newsreel footage and winning propaganda used by the NAZI’s during WWII. The Germans, according to the news reports, were winning the war right up to the moment that the Russians appeared outside of Berlin. It should also be noted that the NAZI high command just sort of pretended that their cities were not being bombed to rubble. I remember one particular newsreel that presented Kursk as a victory. If nothing else, it had plenty of dramatic music!

    I’m glad to see that we are following their playbook.

     

    4th April 2015 at 3:56 am

  26. starfcker says:

    Here’s a good example of of how deep the mind fuck is. Walmart and mcdonalds claim to be raising basic wages, and it’s news. Those aren’t real jobs. Those should be 16 year old kids. I want to hear motorola and johnson and johnson are raising pay. Fucking mcdonalds? Who gives a rats ass. SNL used to have a dating skit called ‘lowered expectations.’ I guess that starts with a black genius president.

     

    4th April 2015 at 4:01 am

  27. starfcker says:

    I bicker with llpoh about a couple of things, but he has repeatedly made one point that stands out due to it’s clarity. Compensation has to be tied to value. You have to be worth MORE to the organization that pays you than what you cost. Period. The biggest distortion in the economy right now is how far pay in certain sectors has become untethered from performance. This gets lost in some of his rants, he doesn’t always couch it in the most palatable terms, but he is absolutely right.

     

    4th April 2015 at 4:19 am

  28. starfcker says:

    I remember a guy on ZH a couple of years back getting hit with a 3 dollar an hour minimum wage hike. Doesn’t sound like much, does it? Let’s do some math. He had 150 employees. 3 bucks an hour x 40 hours is 120 dollars per worker. $120. x 150 is 18 grand a week in new costs, every friday. That’s 936,000 dollars a year, mandated by some idiots drawing their paychecks from the taxes paid by the same businesses they just reamed. Think you could survive that?

     

    4th April 2015 at 4:32 am

  29. pavan says:

    I spent the week at a meeting that was about 90% government employees. Almost all are making more than $100K per year and are oblivious to the real world. They constantly talk about needing budget increases to fund their important work on BS like global warming research. Also, this involves lots of foreign travel, which is encouraged by the Obama administration. They tell endless stories of their trips all over the world. This country has been turned on it’s head. The government calls the shots and the private sector is viewed as a bunch of worker bees who don’t matter. The government can’t tax us enough to cover it’s endless appetite, so they tax, print and spend. The fact that this is stealing freedom and economic opportunity from future generations never enters their greedy little minds. We desperately need leaders who have the guts to cut the size of government to restore sanity. I think a 10% annual reduction for the next decade would be a good start. It would have to applied evenly to all agencies to stop endless lobbying by special interests. Unfortunately, I don’t think the electorate would support politicians who want to cut any of their benefits. We have become the US of me me.

     

    4th April 2015 at 5:12 pm

  30. mike in ga says:

    Right on the head, Pavan. IF, and that’s a big,big if, there’s any solution to this multiple front assault on America it must begin with drastically smaller federal government.

    Regrettably, as you stated, it is much more likely there is no solution palatable to both the electorate and our esteemed flyoverlords.

     

    4th April 2015 at 5:36 pm

  31. starfcker says:

    Pavan, that’s what the sequester was supposed to do, and would continue to do if boener and company didn’t work so hard to undue it.

     

    4th April 2015 at 9:09 pm

  32. Vess says:

    change-in-net-worth.png

     

    5th April 2015 at 3:58 am

  33. BUCKHED says:

    Pavan…..Hazlitt said it best when he said gooberment never considers what the effects of a law are 10 years or more down the line.

     

    5th April 2015 at 9:53 am

  34. Homer says:

    I have a solution for your unemployment, bad GDP, over population, and lack of national purpose. Let’s give a WAR and invite the world to join in. Heaven knows that all these testosterone pumping young troublemakers will finally have something to do rather than spend their time in Occupy Wall street type Movements. We can have full employment making tanks and bombs, which have a limited shelf life and need to be replaced on a continuing basis. The bonus is that there will be a massive reduction of the population giving those that survive more resources to divi up among themselves, just like what happened after the Black Plague in the 1300s. Just the rebuilding will provide jobs for a 100 years.

    The Congress can blame the economic problems that they themselves created on the War, which, of course, someone else started and we were innocently drawn into.

    I see a Win Win here. What could possibly go wrong?

     

    5th April 2015 at 2:19 pm

  35. Homer says:

    I am sure that many of you dear readers believe, based upon my comments, that I am anti-government.
    Nothing could be further from the truth. I believe that people benefit greatly from ‘good governance’. The operative word here is ‘good’. Law is a high ideal. “We are a Nation of Laws”, not of men. Contract law smooths the path of commerce. Law provides safety and security so that families can flourish. Like money, Law provides the basis of civilization. Law mediates dissension and creates peace.

    Unfortunately, the historical record of governments is one of ‘despotism’, not the rule of Law. “too big to fail, too big to jail” Law, today, is used for selfish purposes by those who game it and those who sell it.
    Whether the ideals of our Founding Fathers ever had a real chance, I don’t know, but I hold that hope in my heart and mind.

    The ‘ideals’ of the Country took a real beating as a result of the despotic A. Lincoln during the ‘War of Southern Liberation’. This lawless disaster set the tone for ‘Hamiltonian’ governance, where ‘might makes right’ and where Law is what we say it is. Even in those times there were those who spoke out against the tyranny facing the Nation. Today, I see no such outrage, except the small voices on blogs like this one. Law only works with a citizenry that is educated and demanding of it.

    On this Easter Sunday, when you are dumpster diving for your Easter meal, remember this: the next time a Jasper comes down ‘the Pike’ and tell you “change you can believe in”, read the fine print.

     

    5th April 2015 at 3:09 pm

  36. starfcker says:

    Nice post, homer (the 2nd one). Let me add, on this Easter Sunday, that to be worth anything, law has to be based on morality. Without morality, ANYTHING can become legal, (load those jews in the boxcar, kill the infidel, fuck your neighbor, send his job to china). Morality is the belief system of a society

     

    5th April 2015 at 3:49 pm

  37. starfcker says:

    We had pretty nifty little belief system here in the US, we called it christianity. Call it what you will, but at the end of the day, it’s a belief system. Thou shall not kill, do unto others, etc., pretty well thought out stuff. Remember what’s on the line, when you watch a mike pence waffle. Remember what’s on the line when you put money in tim cook’s pocket. Happy Easter

     

    5th April 2015 at 3:55 pm

  38. Homer says:

    starfcker–Of course you are right. I believe that morality is inborn in the human family. A property of the indwelling Spirit within man. We often fall off the wagon. Just as often we need to climb back on. Despite the seeming over whelming nature of Evil in the world today, I believe that the human family is making progress. Two steps forward, one step backward.

     

    5th April 2015 at 4:29 pm

  39. Homer says:

    starfcker–Have you ever thought that humans are like the governor on an engine? When the RPMs of a motor increase the governor slows the motor down and when the RPMs slow down the governor speeds the motor up. This way a homeostasis is obtained. The governor is an error correcting device. It move the motor’s RPMs from one error to another error, back and forth.

    Perhaps, humanity does the same thing, moves from one error to another error, thereby, creating a homeostasis between two errors. Could morality be that governor.

    Just a thought.

     

    5th April 2015 at 4:47 pm

  40. BUCKHED says:

    Homer….I’m all for a war involving every country…..provided we put the old farts who want it so bad on the front lines. I’d love see McCain and Lispey Graham in a foxhole together.

     

    5th April 2015 at 6:50 pm

  41. Homer says:

    NickelthroweR–Most people believe that the USA won the war. However, it was the Russians that won the war at a terrible cost of 25 million lives lost.

    It was the great tank battle at Kursk that was the definitive battle that defeated the Nazi war machine.

     

    5th April 2015 at 9:35 pm

  42. Repair_Man_Jack says:

    I only find one problem here. 69K out of 245K is closer to a 26% error. We have 50% ClusterBiden in this estimate. The truth was, wait for it….WORSE THAN EXPECTED!

     

    6th April 2015 at 12:10 pm

  43. TE says:

    @starfckr, I’m not being smartassed about this, but praytell WHEN have we been this mighty, moral Christian nation?

    When we subjugated our fellow humans, black, white, yellow and brown?

    Or maybe when we did our level best to kill the Natives?

    Or when we allow a chemical company to use children, elderly and infirm to test their poisons and line their pockets?

    The Salem witchhunts?

    The Drug Wars?

    Throwing prostitutes in jail and then throwing away their children to a state that destroys them?

    Just WHEN?

    None are so blind, that cannot see.

     

    6th April 2015 at 1:10 pm

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