There is Only One Way Out For Greece

ECM Greece

Brussels has been dead wrong. This stupid idea that the Euro will bring stability and peace as it was sold from the outset, has migrated to European domination as if this were a game of Thrones. Those in power have misread history almost at every possible level. The assumption that the DMark’s strength was a good thing and this would be transferred to the Euro, has failed because they failed to comprehend the backdrop to the DMark.

LongBranchNJ-DepressionScrip

Germany moved opposite of the USA and moved toward extreme austerity and conservative economics because of its experience with hyperinflation. The USA moved toward stimulation because of the austerity policies which created the Great Depression and led to such a shortage of money many cities had to issue their own currency just to function. The federal government thought, like Brussels today, that they had to sure up the confidence in the bond market and that called for raising taxes and cutting spending at the expense of the people. The same thinking process has played out numerous times throughout history. Our problem is, nobody ever asks – Hey, did someone try this before? Did it work? This is why history repeats – we do ZERO research when it comes to economics. It is all hype and self-interest.

1000 drachma

Greece should immediately begin to print drachma. By no means has the introduction of a new currency been a walk in the park. There is always a learning curve as in the case of East Germany’s adoption of the Deutsche mark, the Czech-Slovak divorce of 1993, and the creation of the euro itself . However, the bulk of transactions today are electronic. That means we are dealing with an accounting issue more than anything.

The difference concerning East Germany and others was the fact that there was no history. This is more akin to the 1933 devaluation of the dollar by FDR whereby an executive order reneged on promises to pay prior debt in gold. This would be similar. The new drachma should be issued at two-per Euro only because people will thing the drachma should be worth less. If it were issued at par, the speculators will sell it assuming it will decline. Issue it and 50% and you will eventually see the opposite trend emerge once people see the contagion begin to spread.

Brussels already cut off the banks in Greece. All accounts in Greece should be electronically switched to drachmas. Begin to issue printed drachma for small change. The umbilical cord to Brussels must be cut immediately for Greece to stand on its own. You cannot negotiate with people who will not change their view of the world for their own self-interest will cloud their perspective.

All debt should be suspended. Any future resolution of debt should be reduced by 50% to account for the overvaluation of prior debt thanks to the Euro, and any interest previously paid should be deducted from the total loan.

All income tax should be abolished and the only taxation should be indirect. A close examination of the cost of government should be carried out and as many aspects of government should be privatized and put out for bid. For example, motor vehicle agencies and police can be privatized eliminating pensions to be paid by the government. The size of government must be addressed or Greece will risk civil war between government workers and private citizens.

Eliminating the income tax is critical for that is desperately needed to create jobs. Small business must be profitable to start to create jobs and those who had to leave will return, who are the nation’s smartest. Bring your best talent home and build  an economy.

London Agreement signed Aug 1953

Eliminating the debt is critical. Some 20 nations forgave all debt for Germany after World War II in 1953 in the London Agreement on German External Debts, also known as the London Debt Agreement, which was a debt relief treaty between the Federal Republic of Germany and its creditor nations concluded August 8, 1953.

London Agreement 1953The London Debt Agreement covered a number of different types of German debt both public and private from before and after the World War II. Some of them arose directly out of the efforts to finance the reparations system, while others reflect extensive lending, mostly by U.S. investors to German firms and governments. Those included forgiving German debt were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Greece, Iran, Ireland, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Norway, Pakistan, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, the United States, Yugoslavia and still others.The total amount under negotiation was 16 billion marks of debt resulting from the Treaty of Versailles after World War I which had not been paid in the 1930s, but which Germany decided to repay to restore its reputation. This money was owed to government and private banks in the U.S., France and Britain. Another 16 billion marks represented postwar loans by the U.S. Under the London Debts Agreement of 1953, the repayable amount was reduced by 50% to about 15 billion marks and stretched out over 30 years, and compared to the fast-growing German economy were of minor impact.

Therefore, what enabled Germany to rise from the ashes is a successful model. Greece too must be debt free. End federal borrowing, suspend all debt, and accept no more bailouts from Brussels.

 

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12 Comments
Stucky
Stucky
July 6, 2015 9:07 am

“Greece should immediately begin to print drachma. ……. the bulk of transactions today are electronic. That means we are dealing with an accounting issue more than anything.” ——-Armstrong

So, printing new currency is just an “accounting issue”? This makes no sense to me.

But, he’s smart … and, I’m not. Good thing to keep in mind though, when the dollar craters. Hey, let’s just print a new dollar! Problem solved … well, except the accounting issues.

TPC
TPC
July 6, 2015 9:47 am

@Stucky – I think by saying “accounting issue” the author means that you can just update everything electronically (easy) rather than physically via printing new money.

I tend to agree. The only other alternative I’ve heard is for Germany to exit first and go back to the Deutchmark, allowing the inflation of the Euro to “bail out” the countries that need it.

Frankly, we all knew this was going to happen, and we also know when it comes crumbling down it will send ripples across the pond smack into the US of A.

Globalization is a stupid idea.

BUCKHED
BUCKHED
July 6, 2015 3:31 pm

Hmm…when printing money is OK for everybody I’ll start churning them out on my printer. Think I’ll call’em Buckhed Bucks …..convertible to….NOTHING !

Lysander
Lysander
July 6, 2015 4:20 pm

Buckhed…..if you pay me a ‘Bucky’ (I just invented a slang word for Buckhed bucks, teehee) in exchange for one hour of work, then I will expect to be re-inbursed in the form of one good meal at the Buckhed plantation.

Sound fair?

Lysander
Lysander
July 6, 2015 4:22 pm

That is, providing you live within walking distance of my plantation.

Bob
Bob
July 6, 2015 5:22 pm

Default, Bankruptcy, Restructuring, Settlement, Repudiation, Jubilee…care to handicap the methods to be employed?

Yes, Greece needs to fall back on the Drachma ASAP. But at what level will Drachmas convert to Euros? What will be the resulting status of debts denominated in Euros? Creditors may pick their poison(s) from the list above, or choose open economic and or military conflict…

Россия сильна
Россия сильна
July 6, 2015 8:10 pm
llpoh
llpoh
July 6, 2015 8:25 pm

Ok, folks, here is the deal with Greece. Again.

The Greek government spends 65% of its GDP. Think about that. The US spends a fraction of that. As does any semi-sane nation. That position is unsustainable.

I do not care if they use Euros, drachmas, or golden loogeys, unless they address that itty bitty issue, they are truly screwed and can never recover.

If they stay in the Euro – they are screwed. If they leave the Euro, they are immediately screwed even worse than they are now. They could possibly rebound, in that scenario, but ONLY if they bring that 65% down to around – wait for it – 25% or so.

If they leave the Euro, they will have to run a balanced budget, but will have 40% or 50% unemployment.

Serously, Greece is fucked. They may NEVER recover. They have a rapidly aging population, they have few resources and limited manufacturing, etc. And they spend 65% of whatever they get via the government.

And they want to keep their free shit. And not pay taxes. And keep their protected guilds. And their cushy government jobs. And their red tape that is so thick that it takes ten months to set up an online business, where they even request you provide a fucking stool sample (no kidding – it actually happened).

So everyone screaming Yay Greece! for giving the finger to the EU, take a step back and ask just how is this going to turn out ok for Greece? It is not going to turn out ok for Greece. They are in for a long-term hammering of epic proportion. Good thing they like being bent over, because, boy howdy, here it comes.

They have a chance to come back if they abandon the Euro. But only if they completely reverse course, abandon the welfare state as it currently is, effectively sentence their old folks to cat food, wipe out the government drones, etc. And do that before there is nothing left of the country.

They will never act quickly enough. Never.

llpoh
llpoh
July 6, 2015 8:28 pm

I am not saying the EU is not going to get lumps all over it.

People are saying the risk is Spain, Italy, Portugal, France. That is total bullshit.

Want to know what the real risk is?

The real risk is Germany taking their bat and ball and going home, and raising the finger to the rest of the EU, and leaving the sorry ass southern nations to their sorry ass fate.

Zarathustra
Zarathustra
July 6, 2015 8:47 pm

llpoh says:

The real risk is Germany taking their bat and ball and going home, and raising the finger to the rest of the EU, and leaving the sorry ass southern nations to their sorry ass fate.
____________________________________

If Germany doesn’t lend money to other EU nations to buy their shit, who else is going to? Maybe Iran if the nuke deal goes through…

llpoh
llpoh
July 6, 2015 8:58 pm

Z – they can and will still do that – but it will be in Deutsch-marks. At appropriate interest rates, of course. And after the dust settles.