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BREXIT & THE FOURTH TURNING

I took a long walk on the boardwalk with my wife and mother last night, after a long day of packing, doctor appointments, travel, unpacking, food shopping and buying enough liquor to get me through the next week. I was confident the oligarchs had the Brexit vote rigged in their favor. I went to bed exhausted at 10:00.

I wake up this morning to global pandemonium. I just wanted to ride my bike on the boardwalk in peace, but Noooo. First it was raining, so I have to wait for the showers to end. Then I flip on the radio and hear about stock markets around the world crashing because the British people grew some balls and told their keepers to fuck off.

My first thought upon hearing the news was “Fourth Turning”. It’s all about the mood of the people in these countries. The establishment is constantly baffled during Fourth Turnings because they think their old methods of propaganda, fear and control will continue to work. They don’t realize the cyclical nature of history and how the current generational configuration will lead to earth shattering change and a complete destruction of the existing social order. Brexit is just another brick in the wall.

I also find it interesting that over the last month or so some of the most renowned investing billionaires in the world have announced their bearishness and had placed large bets on such an outcome. George Soros is the perfect example. He switched his position to shorting the market recently. Then he constantly blathered in the press about what a disaster Brexit would be for global markets. Then the captured legacy media convinced the world Brexit would never happen. When it “shockingly” happened last night, stock markets around the world crashed. Soros and his billionaire cronies made hundreds of millions in profits. Meanwhile, the poor schmuck with his 401k gets clobbered again.

Since I was 100% wrong in my prediction regarding Brexit, you can take my following observations with a grain of salt. But this is what I see:

  • This further cements the coming showdown between the people and the establishment (politicians, bankers, mainstream media).
  • The EU is dead. France, Italy and other EU countries will push for the same referendum and the people will vote out.
  • The insolvent banks across Europe were never fixed. The central bankers just extended, pretended, and printed more debt. Bank failures will trigger further economic strife.
  • The credibility of central bankers around the globe will completely disintegrate as their one trick pony method of easy money has proven to be an immense failure for the people.
  • With the disintegration of the EU, the possibility of civil chaos and war with Russia goes up dramatically.
  • It will be interesting to see if the Fed and their Wall Street banker puppeteers can stop the stock market from dropping by its destined 30% to 50%. The overvaluation is drastic and this could be the Lehman moment, or at least the Bear Stearns moment.
  • The credibility of the corporate mainstream media has further disintegrated as they again have been revealed as nothing but propaganda mouthpieces for the establishment. Their anti-Brexit poll numbers were fake. They are not journalists, but cheerleaders for their corporate sponsors.
  • The constant media bashing of Trump and cheerleading for Clinton will be disregarded by the silent majority in the U.S. Their polls and opinions can be completely ignored and dismissed. The people of this country who don’t live in NYC, DC, LA, or SF are pissed off. Their mood is dark. They want change. The only person who will give them change is Trump.
  • I’m more convinced than ever that Trump will win the presidency in November. This is a Fourth Turning. The status quo never wins during a Fourth Turning.

Fourth Turnings never peter out. They intensify to a crescendo of turmoil, chaos, violence, war, and bloodshed. This Fourth Turning intensification just got turned up dramatically. It will eventually be turned up to 11.

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ALL THEY HAVE LEFT IS VENGEANCE

Guest post by the Zman of www.thezman.com

I don’t know why the Zman does not get a wider audience. He is regularly linked on Western Rifle Shooters Association, but I have not seen him anywhere else.

I’ve become aware of the term “Holocaustianity” of late. It’s one of those things that I probably saw and skipped past, not bothering to register it in any way. I’ve never found the Holocaust and WW2 to be very interesting. In the long run, it will fall in importance well behind the Great War and many other wars further back in time. It’s significance to us is due to recency bias and the fact there are still people who lived it.

Anyway, I saw someone use the term “Holocaustianity” on twitter and the responses reminded me of something I saw on Vox Day a while back. That post on the alt-right makes the point that no one under 40 years of age cares about the deification of the Holocaust. This may be true, I have no way of knowing, but it sounds plausible. World War II ended 70 years ago. Most young people have never met someone who was alive during that time.

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Forget the Lifeboat, It’s the Iceberg that Counts

Brexit

 

Within 24 hours of the Brexit victory its disruptive effects made many argue it was a mistake; that it would not be long before a repentant Britain was pushing its face against the cold glass doors of the Euro cafe, wistfully eyeing the delicacies now out of its foolish reach.  Yet others have argued in the same breath it would be Europe with its face pressed against the glass, longing the other way round. For example Jamie Kirchick writes in the NY Daily News that an EU without Britain would be easy meat for Russia.

An E.U. without Britain is also more prone to appease Russia, which today poses a greater threat to European security than at any point since the collapse of the Berlin Wall. Soon to be a body dominated by France and Germany, where voices demanding accommodation with a revanchist Moscow grow louder every day, the E.U. is increasingly likely to lift sanctions on Russia regardless of its behavior in Ukraine. Indeed, if there is one world leader of whose reaction to Brexit we can be confident, it is Vladimir Putin, unquestionably delighted that the largest military power in Europe, and its strongest proponent of democratic freedom in Europe’s east, has decided to call it quits.

Come back, Lord Shane!  Come back!

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Six More Countries Want Referendums to Exit EU

Le Pen Marine

Brussels simply went too far. They cross the line moving from an economic union to a political subordination of Europe. Now five more countries want to hold referendums to exit the EU – France, the Netherlands, Italy, Austria, Finland and Hungary all could leave. With Hollande approval rating at about 11%, Merkel lucky she is not tarred & feathered, the Front National leader Marine Le Pen has pledged to hold a French referendum. If she emerges victorious in next year’s presidential elections, that means the next major player in the EU after Germany is out and there goes the EU.

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Yet Another Reason To Vote for Trump

Guest Post by Karl Denninger


Why am I not surprised?

Henry Paulson, a Republican who was U.S. Treasury secretary during the 2008 financial meltdown, on Friday called a Donald Trump presidency “unthinkable” and said he will vote for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Yeah, it’s unthinkable because if Paulson’s former firm (Goldman Sachs) got into debt trouble Trump would probably do what he did with his firms that also did so — tell them to file bankruptcy instead of bailing them out.

He might also prosecute the firm and the executives for fraud, particularly if (as was the case in the bailout in 08) the firm was on tape calling things they were selling to clients as “good investments” by such descriptive monikers as “vomit” and “dogsqueeze.”

“I can’t help but think what would have happened if a divisive character such as Trump were president during the 2008 financial crisis, at a time when leadership, compromise and careful analysis were critical,” he said.

He sure as hell wouldn’t have his Treasury Secretary try to ram through a two-page bill that gave him plenary power to blow the taxpayer’s money without any check, balance, review or ability to prosecute even if the conduct was later shown to be utterly fraudulent!

But that’s exactly what Hank Paulson did, and in addition he intentionally misled Congress in that his original proposal which was voted on the second time was to buy “toxic assets” but by the time it reached the floor of Congress he had already decided not to buy assets but rather to provide direct funds via various other mechanisms to the firms in question and did not inform Congress of his “changed” intentions.

In other words he actively and passively misled Congress.

Trump probably wouldn’t have allowed that and if the Statute of Limitations had not already run on this conduct (I believe it has) he might even prosecute and jail that rat bastard.


Here’s How Bad US New Home Sales Are

The Census Bureau’s monthly update on new US home sales for May had lots of interesting data buried between the lines. I’ll touch on a few things here, with more to come in a subsequent post.

First, while prices rose only 1% year over year, they are now up nearly 31% since the 2011 lows and by nearly 22% since the 2007 peak. And this isn’t a bubble?

US New Home Sale Prices Bubble Up- Click to enlarge

Click here to view chart if reading in email.

Then there’s the business from economists and the media blaring about the “recovery” in the housing industry. Indeed sales are up a massive 122% since the May 2010 bottom! But the reports lack perspective. The bubble peak was in 2005, already 11 years ago, and sales are down 57.5% since then, and even down 35% since 2007, when the collapse was already under way for 18 months.

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