Nothing like a major Noreaster with high winds, high surf, heavy rain and wet heavy snow only 10 days after one of the worst storms to hit the East coast in history. The computer models are predicting a big storm. This double whammy the day after the election should really improve the mood of the country this week. I suggest people on the East Coast actually do a little prepping this time, even if it does get you classified as a potential terrorist.
Forecast for Sunday, November 4, 2012
On Sunday and Monday, it will remain chilly during the day with high temperatures in the city struggling to reach 50 degrees. Many of the suburbs likely won’t make it to 50 degrees. Nighttime temperatures will continue to remain in the thirties with even a few upper twenties. Monday will be the cloudier of the two days with some energy going well off our coastline.
The thing that concerns me most within the next seven days is the potential for a Nor’easter on or about Wednesday. Today the likelihood for a Nor’easter has increased. Also, the computer modeling is trending towards a slower system with a deeper area of low pressure. This means there is the potential for this Nor’easter to be significant. Yes, there is still a slight chance this system could miss our region altogether or have a minor impact. But we want to prepare you for the worst and hope for the best given the ongoing emergency.
Even a modest Nor’easter could spell trouble for the region. The coastal communities have had many sand dunes completely wiped out by Sandy. Sand dunes provide the necessary protection against coastal flooding in a standard coastal storm. The dunes block water pushing ashore due to onshore winds that develop when a low is situated to the east of the coastline. Moderate to major coastal flooding is not out of the question for this reason if the stronger low solutions are indeed the case. But it just isn’t the coastline I am concerned about. Utilities are struggling to restore electricity. Nearly 1,000,000 addresses remain without power in our area. While the numbers should come down by Wednesday…some areas will still be without power. Utility crews will still be trying to focus on these customers that have been without power for many days. Nor’easter wind gusts, especially in NJ and DE can be strong in nature. These at the very least usually produce scattered outages. Therefore, be prepared for additional long lasting power outages. Crews just simply won’t be able to get to brand new outages quickly with the current conditions. Also, keep in mind many trees and branches across our region were really weakened from the unusually high winds this past Monday. So there could be a lot more power outages than usual even with just a modest Nor’easter. Of course, restoration efforts for the remaining outages would be hampered.
Precipitation type, depending on the storm track, would also be an issue. Colder air is not that far away. It can be accessed and more could actually be produced if the Nor’easter were to take a certain track and be fairly potent in strength. It will also help to have a fairly strong high to the north and there is that possibility. My feeling is that it is too early to speculate on where it will snow and possibly sleet vs. rain. But there is the possibility that some portions of our region may receive an accumulation of damaging, wet snow in the worst case scenarios which of course can also lead to additional power outages. Areas that receive liquid precipitation may see the rain come down heavy at times. This may further saturate soils and also increase the chances for interior flooding due to antecedent wet conditions from Sandy, particularly the further south and west one travels.
Do you remember last year when the northern half of the region had a rare October snow which downed so many branches and trees? The first heavy rain after that event downed many more and reports came in of blue flashes which turned out to be the glow from blowing transformers.
Posted by Douglas_Melegari at 11/03/2012 04:00:00 PM
Ron says:
The leaves here have been falling from the trees for two weeks and last year it snowed the second week of november.I always remember that it gets cold around halloween.So when i saw all the problems in Jersey i thought about snow hitting with no heat or utilitys.
Mabe some citys that are close and werent effected well open theyre arms and doors and help out.I havent heard of any emergency housing set up.The people are on theyre own so far from what i see.
Like or Dislike:
4 
0
3rd November 2012 at 8:44 pm
Davos says:
Score: Jim 1, Davos Keyboard 0 – a casualty of Guiness beer & laughter.
“I suggest people on the East Coast actually do a little prepping this time, even if it does get you classified as a potential terrorist.”
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
10 
0
3rd November 2012 at 9:19 pm
No Way says:
There will be NO storm… The HARRP cycle Sandy was only damaging by improper flood control and official response. President Romney will impoverish the nation long before a NOR Easter gets you.
Hot debate. What do you think?
6 
15
3rd November 2012 at 9:34 pm
Bruce says:
Ron,
As far as emergency housing goes I wonder if FEMA has thousands of pre-condemned trailers stacked up in fields somewhere in the region. What a mess. And no way things can be brought back even close to normal in some spots before winter sets in. From some of the pictures I’ve seen some places were just flat wiped out like in Galveston after hurricane Ike. Can’t fix “wiped out” in a few weeks. But people are resilient and they will bounce back. They will bounce back just as stupid or even more stupid than ever..To prove the point here is some evidence of hard headed American determination and resiliency.
Like or Dislike:
2 
0
3rd November 2012 at 1:48 am
Bruce says:
Lets try that again………….
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
0
3rd November 2012 at 1:54 am
Stan says:
Obama could have commanded Sandy to stand down if he had chosen. But for some reason he allowed it.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
5 
0
3rd November 2012 at 7:21 am
Nonanonymous says:
There were obviously lesson’s learned from Katrina, thankfully, and it’s evident you can’t get food and water to people fast enough.
Many of these people whose homes were devastated will become refugees, the same as happened after Katrina. Good luck finding jobs. I guess we’ll see a spike in the U2, regardless of who wins next week.
Obummer will get a free pass for not commanding the storm to stand. It’s already been blamed on non-existent global warming.
Like or Dislike:
5 
1
3rd November 2012 at 8:24 am
sangell says:
Yes global warming is to blame for the actual storm and the left is blaming the gas shortages on the oil companies holding back deliveries to make Obama look bad. They also blame the electric utilities and, in particular, those out of state non union lineman for going slow on repairs if not actually sabotaging repair work for the same purpose. Thus the union utility workers were entirely justified in running off those repair crews from Alabama before they could begin to inflict more damage on the New Jersey power grid.
Like or Dislike:
3 
3
3rd November 2012 at 8:53 am
Administrator says:
A moderate-strength Nor’easter on Wednesday looking increasingly likely
By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 7:38 PM GMT on November 03, 2012
Storm-weary U.S. residents pounded by Superstorm Sandy may have a new storm to contend with on Wednesday: an early-season Nor’easter is expected to impact the mid-Atlantic and New England with strong winds and heavy rain. Our two top models, the European (ECMWF) and GFS (run by the U.S. National Weather Service), are now in agreement on both the track and intensity of the storm. The storm will move off the coast of South Carolina/Georgia on Tuesday evening. Once over the warm waters off the coast, the low will intensify, spreading heavy rains of 2 – 3″ over coastal North Carolina on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The storm will accelerate to the north-northeast on Wednesday and pull in cold air from Canada, intensifying into a medium-strength Nor’easter with a central pressure of 984 mb by Wednesday evening. The European model, which did an exemplary job forecasting Hurricane Sandy, is slower, predicting the Nor’easter’s highest winds will begin affecting New Jersey on Wednesday night. The GFS model is about 12 hours faster, predicting the strongest winds will arrive on Wednesday morning. A 12-hour period of strong winds of 40 – 45 mph will likely affect the coast from Maryland to Massachusetts, accompanied by a swath of 2 – 3″ of rain. The heaviest rains will likely fall over Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The storm also has the potential to bring more than a foot of snow to mountain areas of New England. The storm is still four days away, and four-day forecasts of the path and intensity of Nor’easters usually have large errors. Nevertheless, residents and relief workers in the region hit by Sandy should anticipate the possibility of the arrival on Wednesday of a moderate-strength Nor’easter with heavy rain, accompanied by high winds capable of driving a 1 – 2 foot storm surge with battering waves. The surge and waves will potentially cause moderate to severe erosion on New Jersey coast, where Hurricane Sandy pulverized the protective beach dunes.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
3rd November 2012 at 2:18 pm
sangell says:
The regions political leaders are more focused on how they are going to get their base to the polls on Tuesday than how they will live on Wednesday.
Like or Dislike:
3 
2
3rd November 2012 at 4:45 pm
ragman says:
Too fuckin bad! New Jersey had the balls to turn away VOLUNTEER linemen from Alabama because they didn’t have a fucking “Union Card”. I hope these “leaders” have to burn their union cards to delay death-by-freezing for a few milliseconds before the frost monster gets his due. That decision(not to accept help) has got to be one of the worst decisions in the history of mankind. My heart goes out to the true victims that had absolutely nothing to do with this decision.
Like or Dislike:
3 
0
3rd November 2012 at 2:26 pm