The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
Harpers Ferry – 1859 Tucson – 2011
The mass murder in Tucson is another brick in the wall of this Fourth Turning Crisis. The importance of this tragic event is not what happened in that Safeway parking lot, but the reaction in the aftermath of the shooting. Turnings are not about specific events, but how generations react to the events based on their stages of life. A turning is an era with a characteristic social mood, a new twist on how people feel about themselves and their nation. It results from the aging of the generational constellation. A society enters a turning once every twenty years or so, when all living generations begin to enter their next phases of life. We entered this Fourth Turning between 2005 and 2008, with the collapse of the housing market and subsequent financial system implosion.
We have crossed the threshold into a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime will propel the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. The Silent Generation (1925-1942) is dying off, Baby Boomers (1943-1960) are entering elder hood, Generation X is entering midlife, Millenials are entering young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists are being born. Strauss & Howe have documented that a long human life of 80 to 100 years makes up a social cycle of growth, maturation, entropy, and death (and rebirth) known as a Saeculum. Within each cycle, four generations proceed through their four stages of life. Every 15 to 25 years a new Turning surprises those who only think of history in a linear way. Strauss & Howe are historians who have been able to document this generational cycle going back to the 1400s.
The Anglo-American saeculum dates back to the waning of the Middle Ages in the middle of the fifteenth century. In this lineage, there have been seven saecula:
- Late Medieval (1435-1487)
- Reformation (1487-1594)
- New World (1594-1704)
- Revolutionary (1704-1794)
- Civil War (1794-1865)
- Great Power (1866-1946)
- Millennial (1946-2026?)
The Turnings of history are like the seasons of nature. Seasons cannot be rearranged, seasons cannot be avoided, but humans and nations can prepare for the challenges presented by each season. Winter has descended upon our nation.
We are still in the early stages of this Fourth Turning and the mood of the country continues to darken like the sky before an approaching blizzard. Generational theory does not predict the specific events that will happen during a Turning. The events, personalities, and policies that become the chapters in history books are not what drive a Turning, it is how each generation reacts to the events, personalities and policies. Someone who is 60 years old will react differently to an event than they would have reacted at 20 years old. The issues that are driving this Fourth Turning (un-payable entitlement obligations, Wall Street greed & power, globalization gutting the middle class, increasing government control, wealth distribution) were all known and understood in 1997. It took the spark of a housing market collapse and the generations being in proper alignment to catalyze the mood of the country.
Chapter one of this Fourth Turning is approaching its end. Chapter two guarantees to be more intense, with more violence, and periods of great danger. Strauss & Howe envisioned this chapter based upon their analysis of the issues looming back in 1997:
The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. Thus, might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
American Revolutions
“A Fourth Turning is a solstice era of maximum darkness, in which the supply of social order is still falling but the demand for order is now rising. As the community instinct regenerates, people resolve to do more than just relieve the symptoms of pending traumas. Intent on addressing root causes, they rediscover the value of unity, teamwork, and social discipline. Far more than before, people comply with authority, accept the need for public sacrifice, and shed anything extraneous to the survival needs of their community. This is a critical threshold: People either coalesce as a nation and culture – or rip hopelessly and permanently apart.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
“Photo credit: ComfortBetrays.com”
There have been three prior Fourth Turnings in U.S. history: the American Revolution, Civil War and Great Depression/World War II. The American Revolution preceded the Civil War by 87 years. The Great Depression followed the Civil War by 69 years and this Millenial Crisis arrived 76 years after the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929. Essentially, each prior Fourth Turning has represented a Revolution in American history.
The First American Revolution began in 1773 when Parliament’s response to the Boston Tea Party ignited a colonial tinderbox—leading directly to the first Continental Congress, the battle of Concord, and the Declaration of Independence. History always seems easy to predict in retrospect. This is another of the many faults in human thinking. There was very little talk or thought of the colonies breaking away from the mother country during the 1760s. Up until the Boston Tea Party catalyst event, no one could have predicted the events which would occur in a chain reaction over the next 21 years. There were dark cold bitter days during this Crisis winter. In the end, George Washington’s honor, courage and fortitude symbolized the character of a new nation.
Historians Charles and Mary Beard described the Civil War as the Second American Revolution. The Civil War Crisis began with a presidential election that southerners interpreted as an invitation to secede. The attack on Fort Sumter triggered the most violent conflict ever fought on New World soil. The war reached its climax with the Emancipation Proclamation and Battle of Gettysburg (in 1863). The epic conflagration redefined America. The slavery issue was settled for good, signed in the blood of 600,000 men. The industrial might of the North was rechanneled toward progress as a world industrial powerhouse. In retrospect many will say the Civil War was entirely predictable, but that is completely untrue.
The great compromise generation (Henry Clay, John C. Calhoun, Daniel Webster) of the 1850s passed from the scene, leaving the country in the hands of firebrands on both sides. John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry and subsequent execution served to increase the brooding mood of the country. The bloodiest war in the history of mankind was not predictable even one year before it began. The aristocracy of Washington DC actually took carriages in their Sunday best to watch the First Battle of Bull Run. Shortly thereafter Lincoln mobilized 500,000 men and unleashed a catastrophic spiral of butchery over the next four years that exhausted itself with the assassination of Lincoln and the surrender at Appomattox in the same week. The resolution of this Crisis felt more like defeat than victory.
Renowned American historian Carl Degler called FDR’s New Deal the “Third American Revolution”. The Crisis began suddenly with the Black Tuesday stock-market crash in 1929. After a three-year economic free fall, the Great Depression triggered the New Deal Revolution, a vast expansion of government, and hopes for a renewal of national community. After Pearl Harbor, America planned, mobilized, and produced for world war on a scale never seen in the history of mankind, making possible complete victory over the Nazis and Fascists. In 1928 did anyone foresee an 89% stock market crash, worldwide depression, vast expansion of government power, a world war more devastating than the prior war, and the usage of an atomic weapon of mass destruction? Not a chance. Only in retrospect do people convince themselves that it was predictable.
Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929 marked the abrupt unforeseen end of the Roaring Twenties. The bewilderingly rapid collapse of the worldwide financial system in the space of three years left the American people shaken and desperate. With their wealth destroyed and unemployment exceeding 20%, the American public turned to Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal promises of government social and work programs. He declared “nationwide thinking, nationwide planning, and nationwide action, the three essentials of public life”. This was truly a Third American Revolution. FDR’s policies changed the course of American history. The renewed spirit of American youth during the 1930s was essential in preparing them for the trials that awaited from 1941 through 1945. It is somewhat ironic that FDR’s revolutionary social programs, begun during the last Crisis, will be a major factor in the current Crisis – the Fourth American Revolution.
Fourth American Revolution
“The US government is on a “burning platform” of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon.” – David M. Walker
No one knows exactly what events will transpire over the next 15 to 20 years as this Fourth Turning morphs from regeneracy to climax and finally to resolution. The mainstream media, most politicians, and self proclaimed progressives are blind to the cyclicality of history. They believe history proceeds in a linear upwards path. These are the people you see on TV talking about toning down the rhetoric, false gestures of bipartisanship, and soothing words about the financial crisis being a thing of the past. They fail to understand that once the mood of the country is catalyzed by a trigger event or events, there is no turning back the clock. Winter must be dealt with head on. Very few, if any, “financial experts” anticipated a housing collapse, followed by a deep recession, a 50% stock market crash, and a financial system which came within hours of total implosion on September 18, 2008 (as detailed in the documentary Generation Zero). Absolutely no one anticipated the extreme measures taken by the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to “Save” the country from a 2nd Great Depression. These measures have added $5 trillion to the National Debt in the last 40 months. It took 205 years to accumulate the 1st $5 trillion of debt.
While it is impossible to predict the exact trials and tribulations that will confront America over the next decade, the issues that will drive this Fourth Turning were clearly visible to anyone with their eyes open, many years in advance of the Crisis. Strauss & Howe clearly detailed the easily observable issues that led to the current Crisis back in 1997. Their book is not prophecy, but historically provable interactions between generations based upon the circumstances confronting society at the time.
“Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning. A spark will ignite a new mood. It will catalyze a Crisis. In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. It could be a rapid succession of small events in which the ominous, the ordinary, and the trivial are commingled.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
The authors use their common sense, based upon known trends, to posit potential catalyst scenarios such as:
- A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses nuclear weapons.
- Beset by a fiscal crisis, states begin to balk at Federal mandates leading to secession actions, militia violence, cyber attacks on the IRS, and demands for a new Constitutional Convention.
- An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The government shuts down. The President declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Financial markets spiral out of control. Default looms.
These “theoretical” scenarios were put forth in 1997. The authors concluded that these were unlikely, but that no matter what the catalyst, the response by the generations would be predictable. It seems this Fourth Turning is being driven by a succession of smaller triggers, rather than one large trigger. The housing collapse, which began in 2005, ultimately led to the world financial system collapse in 2008. The overreach by government in attempting to repair the damage done by Wall Street and K Street led to the Rick Santelli Tea Party Rant heard round the world in February 2009. The Tea Party movement has since taken the country by storm, surprising the linear thinkers and stunning the ruling elite. Last week a congresswoman and a dozen bystanders were gunned down, further darkening the mood of the country and inflaming passions among competing political ideologies. So what happens next?
Strauss & Howe postulated on the possible path of this Crisis and I see nothing to doubt their analysis:
“An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. It is unlikely that the catalyst will worsen into a full fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
The CNBC talking heads, mainstream media pundits, clueless Washington politicians, corrupt Wall Street shysters, and non-thinking robotic masses have been convinced that the actions taken by Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama, Tim Geithner and Congress have averted a financial disaster and saved the world. One hundred years from now when Chinese historians look back on the period from 2000 until 2025 they will ask themselves, “what the hell were they thinking?” The causes of this Crisis are as clear as day to anyone willing to see. A small group of Wall Street bankers and corporate interests through their proxy, the Federal Reserve, created the largest housing bubble in the history of the world generating hundreds of billions in obscene undeserved profits, while destroying the wealth and futures of millions of middle class Americans. Once the fraudulent nature of the bankers’ pillaging of the nation’s wealth came to light, the entire ponzi scheme collapsed, as they always do. On a parallel track, the Federal government, knowing full well that its un-payable social welfare commitments could never be fulfilled, decided to engage in two wars of choice, made additional un-payable social welfare commitments, and created new bloated bureaucratic agencies in the name of security and safety.
What will truly amaze future historians is the “solutions” that our leaders chose to save the country. Despite already being the largest debtor the planet has ever seen, with a National Debt of $8 trillion in 2005, the President and Congress have added an additional $6 trillion of debt, with plans to increase that debt at a rate of $1.5 trillion per year for the foreseeable future. Despite the fact that the housing boom was created by loose monetary policy and non-enforcement of existing laws and regulations by the Federal Reserve, our leaders have allowed this bank owned entity to reduce interest rates to 0%, buy $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgages from the Wall Street banks that caused the crisis, suspend requirements for banks to report their assets at their FMV, monetize the debt spending by the Federal Government, and create inflation through the printing of money out of this air. The Federal government’s response to the crisis was to create a mandated healthcare benefit for 35 million more Americans with no means to pay the untold trillions in future costs. Our leaders’ solution to a crisis caused by excessive debt has been to create twice as much debt. A passage from the Book of Matthew which Abraham Lincoln utilized during a prior Fourth Turning Crisis is a fitting description of where we stand today:
“Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.” – Matthew 12:25
The country is deeply divided. There is a vast swath of America that has chosen ignorance over knowledge. With 50% of Americans paying no income taxes, they will vote for anyone who promises them more. The rest of America is split between those who believe the answer lies in increased Federal government coordination and control and those who want a return to liberty, individual responsibility and a vastly reduced Federal government footprint. As I have tried to figure out the most likely path of this Fourth Turning I was focused on an external conflict in the Middle East or an incident on the Korean Peninsula providing the next spark. After the shooting in Tucson, this Fourth Turning is beginning to crystallize.
What I realized was that the three previous American Revolutions all occurred on U.S. soil. The First American Revolution was fought on American soil by a loose confederation of autonomous states against the overbearing control of a great European empire. The Second American Revolution was fought by Americans against Americans and resulted in a vast expansion of Federal government power and diminishment of state power. The Third American Revolution took place under the auspices of saving America from the depths of Depression with government social programs and the birth of the Nanny State. Each Revolution has further expanded the power and control of the Federal government. I believe the Fourth American Revolution will ultimately come down to a battle between the Liberty movement and the ruling oligarchy of Wall Street, Mega-corporations and supporters of the Military Nanny State.
I trust that Strauss & Howe correctly assessed the main factor that will drive the next phase of this Crisis – the Great Devaluation:
“It could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed. With savings worth less, the new elders will become more dependent on government, just as government becomes less able to pay benefits to them. Before long, America’s old civic order will seem ruined beyond repair.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
There is no doubt in my mind that the next downward ratchet in this Crisis will be caused by Ben Bernanke and his attempt to generate just enough inflation to make our un-payable debt load less burdensome. His track record regarding economic forecasting, assessment of housing prices and anticipation of economic distress is flawless. He hasn’t been right once. With the top 1% richest Americans controlling 42% of the financial wealth in the country, an all-time high, the next leg down will boil over into class warfare. The middle class has been devastated thus far. Another stock market collapse and more job losses would push them over the edge. The evident failure of government solutions will invigorate the Liberty Movement to become even more strident in their anti-government message. The subsequent battle between the Haves and Have Nots is likely to flair into protests, riots and increasing violence. There will be no compromises. The 2012 Presidential election could incite reactions on par with the election of Lincoln in 1860. While the country convulsively flails about, foreign adversaries will take advantage of our weakness. Peak oil will throw a further wrench into the downward spiral. Out of this tempest, the country will either turn to a strong leader and more government control or move back toward a smaller Federal government footprint and a return to rule by the people and for the people. The outcome is unknown, but the path is foreseeable. Let’s hope that Ben Franklin was right.
All of us who were engaged in the struggle must have observed frequent instances of superintending providence in our favor. To that kind providence we owe this happy opportunity of consulting in peace on the means of establishing our future national felicity. And have we now forgotten that powerful friend? Or do we imagine that we no longer need his assistance? I have lived, Sir, a long time, and the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth-that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the Ground without his Notice, is it probable that an Empire can rise without his Aid?” – Benjamin Franklin, To Colleagues at the Constitutional Convention
“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
Admin,
I’m as doom and gloom as they come, and the basic thesis of your piece is sound. We’re basically screwed and how we react to being screwed will define what kind of country we are.
That said, your claim that the Civil War (or more accurately, The War Between the States) was not even close to being the bloodiest conflict within a country. China has several conflicts in the last 2,000 years where millions (!) were killed. Russia’s revolution wasn’t exactly a walk in the park either. Some of the totals are here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_and_anthropogenic_disasters_by_death_toll
That doesn’t detract from the message, and Lincoln’s War was very bloody (and unnecessary) all the same.
Whatever the totals, you’d be well advised to have some food, ammo, and gold stored for the coming storm. It ain’t going to be pretty.
Steve Hogan, “It ain’t going to be pretty.” That’s an understatement. I believe it will go down like a reactor meltdown – It gets real ugly, real fast.
Highlights to look forward to include –
A “hot” war over control of the border as starving peasants/ nacro paramilitaries and Islamic extremists flood over from Mexico.
A low intensity “civil war” within the United States between separatists and the Federal Government.
The total insolvency of Wall Street and a full blown currency crisis will catapult the country back to 1935 if we are lucky, “Weimer Germany” if we are not.
A smiley faced fascist government aka 1984 that confiscates, demagogues and “disappears” troublemakers and “terrorists” especially those who demand it enforces the constitution and respect the peoples rights.
When the dust settles the United States may no longer be a first world country but “Argentina Super-sized”, after all Congress is acting more and more like a Latin American government everyday – “spread the wealth”, “Bailouts for Donors”….
This cycle will in the end be dominated by the effects of decreasing available energy. Complex systems will no longer be supportable, requiring a vast simplification of how our societies are organized. Nation States will progressively break up in a One to the Many devolution, first toward Regional organizations, then Local ones, finally to Tribal organization. There may be larger reorganizations in the short term, but long term this is part of a grand supercyle larger than the 80 year periodicity of Strauss & Howe Turnings. This is the end of a 1600 year cycle that began with the Fall of the Roman Empire and proceeded through Centuries of the Dark Age. As Jim Kunstler writes, we are at the beginning of a Long Emergency which will persist as we sink down into the depths of the New Dark Age.
In another Milenia, we may reemerge from this to build a Better Tommorow, or it will be the end of Human Sentience on this planet. No one alive today can know how that will come out. For the rest of this generation, and for generations to come the population of the world will shrink markedly, likely to less than 1% of the current population of Homo Sapiens. The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will ride herd over Humanity as War, Pestilence and Famine bring Death to every doorstep. The Age of the Grim Reaper is Upon us Now.
See You on the Other Side.
RE
5 people dead is a brick? I don’t think so. Already it is dropping off the MSM radar. American idle has started a new season and all is well.
After reading the book from cover to cover and then going back over it with a pen and actually doing some basic research I have come to the very amateur conclusion that it is a load of drek. My first instinct is that when it was written research was much more difficult and now with the Internet ( thx Al ) it is much quicker to find information to both back up an idea or refute it. I guess the hardest part I have with the book is the idea that some kind of national Gestalt exists and that it rotates over time. Perhaps for a certain group of people this existed but for the most parts of human history humanity has been focused on living. So many of the ” key points” or “Driving factors ” were nothing more than pop culture items pulled out of a newspaper article. Even these items effected at the most 20-30% of the population and by effected i mean people know what that item or idea was.
Some pointed questions Jim:
Where in the history of our country ( should be 3 times as per the book ) has the disintegration of the family unit left us with so many single parent homes.
When did the education system so utterly fail a whole generation leaving us with people who can not think.
When did the national gestalt give an entire segment of the population some idea that they were owed anything and had to work for nothing.
My favorite laugh moment in the book was when they went WAY out on a limb and stated by y2k the youth of America would band together and enter a new age of civic understanding and pride. The only civic pride I see from today’s youth is when they put 20 inch rims and a big muffler on it
JIMSKI
Like most people, you are trapped in the details. Your question about it only being 5 dead people says it all. It isn’t about the dead people. It was the reaction of the country to the event. Some people won’t get it. You appear to be one of them. But, that’s alright. Most people fall into your camp.
Admin: excellent article! As a side note, the South Carolina chapter of the naacp put a box around the statue of President Washington at the michael king celebration on Monday. This was held on the Capitol grounds in Columbia. They thought his statue would “upset” the celebrants. I believe this type of bullshit could be the catalyst for another revolution. The taxpayers will say “no more” to the FSA and the Generals Jackson and Sharpton will call for nationwide looting, rape and murder.
Some pointed answers, Jimski
If you’d read “Generations”, their previous work, you would understand the generational diagonal that ‘rhymes but does not repeat’. And if you had gone beyond amateur conclusions on the basis of one book, you would find there is a whole body of research and literature on the generational analysis, not only in the U.S.A.
The “disintegration of the family” was evident for the Lost generation, in its own way. Even a casual amateur such as myself could see a generational shift, hippies begetting yuppies, unintentionally — and when it comes to Millenials, “it ain’t over ’til it’s over” — and how many do you *know*?
And did you get a laugh out of the Gilded Age? Or have an appreciation of the writing of earlier writers such as Mark Twain and H.L. Mencken? Or Sinclair Lewis? Or even Governor Bradford?
I think you have an insufficient grasp of research in the pre-web era. When I was studying the life and work of Nikola Tesla, I started with the ‘Readers Guide to Periodical Literature (H.W.Wilson Co.)’ going back to 1890. It took longer, and fact-checking even more so.
Btw, you use ‘effected’ when you should use ‘affected’. Homophones are a bitch, eh?
@admin
Please.
The reaction of the country is being driven by the MSM NOT the other way around. Most people ( me included ) know that crazy people exist and do crazy stuff. We can not prevent every idiot from going off unless we wrap everyone in saran wrap.
The reaction of those outside of Tucson has been a collective YAWN.
I love how people bring up the breakdown of the family as some be all, end all, proof of doom. Yes, it is a symptom of our coming tribulations, not truly a cause, in my opinion.
The REASON there has been a “breakdown,” is one of the CAUSES of the coming pain. We decided, as a nation, that we would REWARD this breakdown, thus guaranteeing that it grow and become a force we can’t pay for indefinitely.
Had it not been for the PC, everybody get along push, bastards would still be called bastards (under your breath and with declarations of sadness to be saying such a thing), kids without working, contributing, parents would be institutionalized and those able adults that refuse to work – at any wage – would face starvation.
The minute we decided that it was “humane” to create a nation of dependent, non-contributors, our fate was sealed.
Right now we are still firmly in the bread & circuses era, I hope Strauss and Howe are right and it takes another 15 years to get to the implosion. But in this instant everything era, where things accelerate faster than ever, I highly doubt it will take as long as they bank on.
TeresaE
S&H show that we’ll have a final resolution in 15 years. The pain starts now.
Cool article. Im not sure I would equate Harpers Ferry with Tucson, which I see as irrelevant next to the former but i sort of see what you mean by national reaction. Im slightly skeptical of Generations but I think there is definitely something to it. I would say the Fourth Turning started in 2008, making 07 the last year of the Unraveling. That’s when I remember the big “mood shift” that Strauss and Howe talked about. You could say the the financial crisis and and/or election of Barack Obama were the catalysts. Im curious, why do you define 2005 as the first year?
Shadows
I think it started between 2005 and 2008. It wasn’t spectacular like The 1929 Crash and the election of Lincoln. It was more like the American Revolution with the Boston Tea Party, then the English Coercive Acts, then colonists organizing, then Concord and Lexington.
The housing bubble began to pop in 2005. That led to hedge funds starting to collapse, which led to fear on Wall Street, which led to Bear and Lehman collapsing, which led to the financial system collapse in September 2008.
http://ageofintuition.blogspot.com/2010/12/2012-year-of-dragon.html
The American cycle is aligned well with the Chinese one. Both are in winter.
Even though I buy the basic ideas behind the fourth turning I can’t agree the Tucson shooting means anything. This type of random event has for decades just been too common. Reminds me of all the global warming advocates grasping at Katrina as ABSOLUTE PROOF of a new era of more violent weather.
Jim maybe you should give TeresaE article posting privileges?
KB
TeresaE now has contributor status if she’d like to post anything.
I think it started between 2005 and 2008. It wasn’t spectacular like The 1929 Crash -Admin
It wasnt as spectacular but I think thats due to media influence tamping down the realities and depth of the crash which was 12 trillion above the TARP horse and pony show,
The next revolution will start when the plug gets pulled on the FSA. The FSA has no skills or survival instincts, other than to take from others. The wall street crooks will either flee the country or barricade themselves away from society, probably with the help ot the U.S. military. The middle-class will be forced to protect whatever they have left, probably without the help of the U.S military, and the games will begin. The middle-class is the backbone of this country, well armed and hard-working, and will rise to the challenge. This country will only begin to rebuild after both the FSA and wall street mentality is dismantled.
Administrator says: KB TeresaE now has contributor status if she’d like to post anything.
I hope she does =) Thx.
The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost.
—John Kenneth Galbraith, “The Great Crash”
The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. -JGK >Admin
Smart guy.
A great many people call the recent financial implosion of 2008 a recession. I dont agree with that opinion as depressions are great transfers of wealth and great amounts of wealth were transferred…upward.
“…… when all living generations begin to enter their next phases of life.” Try again.
This is just an attempt to predict the future in dire and sensationalistic terms. There are some theories here that are interesting but in no way solidify a means by which to peer into the future. This article, along with many others, attracts attention, engenders fear and anxiety much like the experience of passing by a gruesome accident on the freeway. There is so much gloom and doom everywhere and the truth is no one knows if any of this terrifying pontification will come to pass. In fact, in all likelihood it will not. Anyone who has occasion to read the terrifying predictions of the future on a web site along the lines of something like prison planet.com will recall that five years ago they were saying terrible things would happen in two years. And two years ago terrible things would happen next year. And yet they didn’t happen. And yet the dire predictions are continually made. The global financial system has suffered a complete meltdown. That is true. And nobody, as of yet, knows how to fix the problem or if it can be fixed. But to suppose that the end of the world is near…. Well, I guess to each his own. Predictions of global calamity have been with us since the onset of language. And those who feared our world was about to end have always been here and will remain. The best I can say is, “You nor I have absolutely no idea whatsoever what the future holds. In truth we have a very loose grasp on the facts as they are presently.” We can choose to tremble or be filled with rage from our fear. Or we can admit we just don’t know and never will know, and get on with our lives. The fact is, no one knows what’s coming tomorrow. The best we can say is that in all likelihood something will happen that no one was expecting and no one was talking about. And that will make all our predictions 100% obsolete. In fact, that’s what always happens. Signed: Finally bored with all of the “the end of the world is near” bs.
J.Mac
Wow. You blathered on with one run on sentence and said absolutely nothing worth reading. Do you like to go to websites and reveal yourself to be a non-thinking douchebag? You give the ignorant masses a bad name.
J Mac,
If you don’t think terrible things have happened in the last two years, you are living under a rock. And why bother reading, let alone posting your disagreement, on a site like TBP? Now go get a bag of chips and enjoy the Jerry Springer show.
Actually, Jim, J.Mac makes very good (but somewhat obvious) observations about making predictions.
You can’t even accurately predict which team will win the football game NEXT WEEK. Yet you revere Strauss’ & Howe’s forecasts as if it is The Gospel Truth. It is interesting watching you breathlessly hyperventilate over all things Strauss & Howe.
Did you know if you google “the fourth turning is bullshit” that TBP is on Google 1st page, 3rd entry!! Not that it means anything, just an observation.
J.Mac — never never ever criticize or question the 4th Turning. You will receive unkind treatment.
Stuck
You reveal your utter ignorance regarding the subject matter by referring to their PREDICTIONS.
They do not make forecasts. Sometimes, it is mind boggling how dense some people can be.
Thinking is really hard. Try.
Just a note, Jim… Katrina also happened in 2005 and was, I believe, another brick in the wall. Americans saw, for the first time, how inept our government was at handling a crisis. We learned that no one was going to be there for us… we were on our own, despite being told we’d be taken care of. Especially the most disadvantaged of us. And, as we now know, some of the people sworn to protect us did anything but.
This all came after the Asian Tsunami of 2004, where we watched our naval ships rush to care for the injured. The government response to that was far better than to its own people.
The national mood began to change then, and kept right on going — akin to the American Revolution, as you so rightly point out — and hasn’t changed. Each event darkens the mood, and it will eventually boil over. Tucson may not mean anything to some people, but it was a huge shock to one group — the ruling elites. For the first time, one of their “club” was targeted. They know all too well how the mood is changing toward them.
Great summary of the theory, as always. S&H always said you were one of the few who “got it.” Bravo.
Stuck: “J.Mac makes very good (but somewhat obvious) observations about making predictions.”
Yes, but if JMac had read the book, he/she would know that it has nothing to do with making predictions. It’s about the seasonality of history.
And JMac, if you do read the book, you’ll see that there’s a Spring (High) that follows the Winter (Crisis). It’s not doom and gloom or the “end of the world” at all. It’s about cyclicality. This too shall pass.
Oops, sorry, Jim… we posted at the same time.
JMAC, you say no one can predict what will happen tomorrow. I got this sneaky suspicion that Goldman Sucks, JPMC, and the other financial institutions know a little bit about what happens tomorrow.
I firmly believe that 9/11 ushered in the 4th Turning. Not only was it the beginning of gradual descent into a police state, but it the economic fallout triggered many of the policies that further accelerated the mortgage bubble and its collapse. I think the AZ shooting was another defining moment of the Winter in that the Thought Police are not firmly entrenched into our every thought and comment. Censor your speech bc it might insight violence.
The little girl murdered that day shared a birthday with the horrid tragedy on 9/11. She was born on a day of tragedy and ironically her live ended on a day of tragedy. That alone, should cause us to reflect and ponder the path that we are on and how to get off of it before it leads to even greater tragedy.
http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/2/G3IZAF8TqII
sometimes irritating, but still way better than fox shitnews…
Finally someone (Wynter) pointed out the obvious: 911 was THE turning point. The collusion of the CIA, Israel’s Mossad, UK’s MI-6 and other western intelligence groups (not necessarily “rogue”) brought the new Operation Gladio home to the USA.
The stupidity of the American people to this plain as day inside job to false-flag blame onto the Islamic peoples (the unlucky buggers who are sittiing on “our” oil and “Israel’s” land) is outstanding.
Bravo American stupids! One can only ask: Y R UR PEEPS B SO DUM?
Get the picture now?
may I add that I am not the poster above.
I keep the words dumb and stupid for my best pals here: Smokybilly and LLpoopoo
so this isn’t a spam attack from Goldmember.
What a load of total bullshit. Nothing you have said can be substantiated by one shred of empirical evidence. But you are a cute little bunch of narcissists. I’ll give you that.
alien
Go back to fucking sheep. You make David Pierre seem bright.
“You reveal your utter ignorance regarding the subject matter by referring to their PREDICTIONS” — Admin
I have not read the book, so yes, there is a level of ignorance involved. As such, I am neither for nor against it.
Regarding predictions ….
1) This is from the book flap; — “This audacious and provocative book tells us WHAT TO EXPECT JUST BEYOND THE START OF THE NEXT CENTURY.”
2) The book was written in 1997. In it they said the Fourth Turning should start around 2005.
.
.
Sounds like predictions to me. But you’re right, thinking is hard so I went to Websters for a definition of “prediction”, and it says; “something foretold”. Shit! That’s EXACTLY what those two points above are, yet you tell me they are not predictions.
I’m depressed at my lack of understanding even basic American vocabulary. Please set me straight.
Stuck
Read the fucking book before trying to explain what the fuck it means to me without ever reading it.
Is that how you gain your vast knowledge, by reading fucking book flaps?
You can lead a horse to water, Jim, but…
Goldopussy—Which is it ? Goldie or Goldorack ? Decide, faggot.
Why is Fogey calling Goldie a pork meatball?
Jim, you are delightfully predictable. When asked a question you can’t answer you run away or hurl juvenile (but predictable) insults.
How I gain my knowledge is irrelevant …. another favorite tactic of yours when you’ve been bested.
The FACT remains that the book jacket itself states that the book will tell us WHAT TO EXPECT JUST BEYOND THE START OF THE NEXT CENTURY. Only a complete fucking moron can’t see that for what is is …. a prediction.
Your entire article is about what IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN and you use the 4th Turning as your point of reference. Again, only a complete fucking moron can’t see that for what is is …. a prediction.
.
.
You’re such a goddamn pussy …. arguing over ONE word. You’re really not a very secure person, are you?
Stuck
You are entirely predictable, blathering on about something you don’t know the first thing about. Only someone with a need to be heard would post something authoritatively about a book they haven’t even read. It is laughable that anyone would read your assessment of a book you haven’t read and not dismiss your blatherings without another thought. Go back to your Webster’s dictionary and see what “fuck off” really means.
I agree that we are entering or are in a crisis period in our history. I am not sure I would ascribe that much to this particular shooting — unbalanced people appear every year in Washington D.C., usually in spring, and try to shoot people at the Capitol, White House, Holocaust Museum, Pentagon . . . to name a few. There was a stronger reaction this time (I think because more people died and this is unusual for a place like Tucson), but I don’t think it will have lasting effect.
My biggest worry on this timeline is that we will try to resolve this crises too soon while the Boomer generation is still in power (like the Civil War era). Think how much more unified the country was in 1780 than 1770 and 1940 than 1930.
This should not be rushed but should play out over the next decade or so. Better, more pragmatic and comprehensive discussions and decisions will be made by the next generation in power than this one, which still wants to fight endless cultural wars.
Dragline
Excellent point. The Civil War was accelerated by about 10 years resulting in a much more tragic outcome than if tempers had another 5 or 10 years to moderate. The Prophet generation was still in charge, sending hundreds of thousands to their deaths.
Now now Jim what you said to Alien is totally untrue. They dont screw sheep they use high tech equipment to laser out, with atomic boundary precision, cow anuses.
I had to go out on a few sales calls since my last post, what did I miss?
It seems as though DP now goes by mary clyde and that Admin and Stuck have their horns locked.
DP has figgered out how to use a proxy server or TOR onion it seems.
http://www.torproject.org/
While I am against the internet ID crappola I also think being an anonymous troll is lower than a snakes belly.
Let’s take a brief journey back and see what transpired here;
1 — I agree with J.Mac that he has a good case about the futility of predictions
2– You IMMEDIATELY respond saying I’m “ignorant” and the book makes NO predictions.
3 — I give you two clear cut examples that it does, and ASK you to respond.
4. — You ignore the examples, raise irrelevent issues, and raise the level of vitriol,
…. all because of disagreement about ONE word. You are truly a pussy and baby.
It doesn’t make any difference whatsoever whether or not I read the book. Because if I do read it, but still disagree with you, the end result from you will always be the same — cursing, name calling, avoiding real riscussion, introducing irrelevance, and so on.
The reason being — as anyone who is here more than one day can attest — YOU CAN’T HANDLE DIFFERING OPINIONS. Everyone who disagree with The Mighty Quinn is immediately subject to your pathetic insults. It is the definitive sign of a very smal minded and insecure man. I pity you.
Debating the concept of the Fourth Turning with Stuck is like debating with a lobotomized shit eating monkey. And I mean that in the best way possible.
Pass the popcorn. This could be interesting.
OOOUUUUCCCCHHH!
The posting above was my first at this site.
I was just glancing over the comments and struck that only one individual had seen 911 as THE defining incident. I defined the American people as stupid, especially re: this incident for their being so easily manipulated.
But perhaps I am too harsh. The Europeans were manipulated by the red scare of the late 20th century: Gladio. I assume you all have heard of it. If not, google.
So the psychopathic rulers of the planet manipulate everyone. To expect Americans to lead the planet out of the bankster trap really is asking too much.
9/11 cannot be the catalyst, if you understand the theory. Just saying.
Thinker
Could you explain to people why 9/11 wasn’t the catalyst?
911 is the spark. It is where we crossed the line from Fall to Winter. It ushered in a new mindset. It is one of learned helplessness and reliance on the elite for survival. The catalyst is typically much harder to determine and often only apparent in hindsight.
You guys are dangerous, but here goes. Shakespeare’s tellin’ of the void – the seven ages of man…
Stuck—–I’m giving you a 5 hour window, out of the goodness of my heart, to render an early verdict on the upcoming war-for-oil post.
You may decide tonight whether I won the debate or the Administrator won it.
The upcoming war-for-oil debate.
If you don’t decide tonight, there will be no more opportunities.
I am HIGHLY confident that today you will render an impartial, unbiased, completely objective decision that is fair to both the Administrator and me.
Thank-you.
It isn’t a matter of opnions, facts or empty sophistry. Do the research, first. Quinn and the authors of the “The Fourth Turning” have the right of it. In fact, the problem is no longer one of outcomes. It is merely a matter of details and timing..and a case of waiting to se how much running, screaming and dying will be the end result.
I didn’t run across “The Fourth Turning” until a couple of years ago. Their work merely confirmed everything I’ve found during thousands of hours of researh over the last ten years.
(google: ‘”A Reader’s Resources on Systemic Collapse.” for over seventy references and resources from a wide-variety of views and experts.)
Google: ‘warren bones bonesteel’ for additional references, resources and commentary.
It isn’t my own commentary I refer to here, but the references and resources derived from dozens of experts from across the globe which confirm Strauss and Howe’s thesis.
Yes, Quinn has the right of it, at least on this topic.
Warren
Some of the mouth breathers would rather just read the book flap.
Shoulda been “parsing facts’ in the first sentence above.
mary clyde
Let me ask you something. Why don’t you take your whore ass over to France so you can be at home with the rest of the douchebags ? Wait. I bet you’re posting from Paris right now. Say hi to Goldie for me, bitch.
If you should decide to bring your slut ass back to this board, you dog-fucking cunt, we’ll have a nice friendly discussion.