The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
Harpers Ferry – 1859 Tucson – 2011
The mass murder in Tucson is another brick in the wall of this Fourth Turning Crisis. The importance of this tragic event is not what happened in that Safeway parking lot, but the reaction in the aftermath of the shooting. Turnings are not about specific events, but how generations react to the events based on their stages of life. A turning is an era with a characteristic social mood, a new twist on how people feel about themselves and their nation. It results from the aging of the generational constellation. A society enters a turning once every twenty years or so, when all living generations begin to enter their next phases of life. We entered this Fourth Turning between 2005 and 2008, with the collapse of the housing market and subsequent financial system implosion.
We have crossed the threshold into a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime will propel the replacement of the old civic order with a new one. The Silent Generation (1925-1942) is dying off, Baby Boomers (1943-1960) are entering elder hood, Generation X is entering midlife, Millenials are entering young adulthood—and a new generation of child Artists are being born. Strauss & Howe have documented that a long human life of 80 to 100 years makes up a social cycle of growth, maturation, entropy, and death (and rebirth) known as a Saeculum. Within each cycle, four generations proceed through their four stages of life. Every 15 to 25 years a new Turning surprises those who only think of history in a linear way. Strauss & Howe are historians who have been able to document this generational cycle going back to the 1400s.
The Anglo-American saeculum dates back to the waning of the Middle Ages in the middle of the fifteenth century. In this lineage, there have been seven saecula:
- Late Medieval (1435-1487)
- Reformation (1487-1594)
- New World (1594-1704)
- Revolutionary (1704-1794)
- Civil War (1794-1865)
- Great Power (1866-1946)
- Millennial (1946-2026?)
The Turnings of history are like the seasons of nature. Seasons cannot be rearranged, seasons cannot be avoided, but humans and nations can prepare for the challenges presented by each season. Winter has descended upon our nation.
We are still in the early stages of this Fourth Turning and the mood of the country continues to darken like the sky before an approaching blizzard. Generational theory does not predict the specific events that will happen during a Turning. The events, personalities, and policies that become the chapters in history books are not what drive a Turning, it is how each generation reacts to the events, personalities and policies. Someone who is 60 years old will react differently to an event than they would have reacted at 20 years old. The issues that are driving this Fourth Turning (un-payable entitlement obligations, Wall Street greed & power, globalization gutting the middle class, increasing government control, wealth distribution) were all known and understood in 1997. It took the spark of a housing market collapse and the generations being in proper alignment to catalyze the mood of the country.
Chapter one of this Fourth Turning is approaching its end. Chapter two guarantees to be more intense, with more violence, and periods of great danger. Strauss & Howe envisioned this chapter based upon their analysis of the issues looming back in 1997:
The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. Thus, might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
American Revolutions
“A Fourth Turning is a solstice era of maximum darkness, in which the supply of social order is still falling but the demand for order is now rising. As the community instinct regenerates, people resolve to do more than just relieve the symptoms of pending traumas. Intent on addressing root causes, they rediscover the value of unity, teamwork, and social discipline. Far more than before, people comply with authority, accept the need for public sacrifice, and shed anything extraneous to the survival needs of their community. This is a critical threshold: People either coalesce as a nation and culture – or rip hopelessly and permanently apart.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
“Photo credit: ComfortBetrays.com”
There have been three prior Fourth Turnings in U.S. history: the American Revolution, Civil War and Great Depression/World War II. The American Revolution preceded the Civil War by 87 years. The Great Depression followed the Civil War by 69 years and this Millenial Crisis arrived 76 years after the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929. Essentially, each prior Fourth Turning has represented a Revolution in American history.
The First American Revolution began in 1773 when Parliament’s response to the Boston Tea Party ignited a colonial tinderbox—leading directly to the first Continental Congress, the battle of Concord, and the Declaration of Independence. History always seems easy to predict in retrospect. This is another of the many faults in human thinking. There was very little talk or thought of the colonies breaking away from the mother country during the 1760s. Up until the Boston Tea Party catalyst event, no one could have predicted the events which would occur in a chain reaction over the next 21 years. There were dark cold bitter days during this Crisis winter. In the end, George Washington’s honor, courage and fortitude symbolized the character of a new nation.
Historians Charles and Mary Beard described the Civil War as the Second American Revolution. The Civil War Crisis began with a presidential election that southerners interpreted as an invitation to secede. The attack on Fort Sumter triggered the most violent conflict ever fought on New World soil. The war reached its climax with the Emancipation Proclamation and Battle of Gettysburg (in 1863). The epic conflagration redefined America. The slavery issue was settled for good, signed in the blood of 600,000 men. The industrial might of the North was rechanneled toward progress as a world industrial powerhouse. In retrospect many will say the Civil War was entirely predictable, but that is completely untrue.
The great compromise generation (Henry Clay, John C. Calhoun, Daniel Webster) of the 1850s passed from the scene, leaving the country in the hands of firebrands on both sides. John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry and subsequent execution served to increase the brooding mood of the country. The bloodiest war in the history of mankind was not predictable even one year before it began. The aristocracy of Washington DC actually took carriages in their Sunday best to watch the First Battle of Bull Run. Shortly thereafter Lincoln mobilized 500,000 men and unleashed a catastrophic spiral of butchery over the next four years that exhausted itself with the assassination of Lincoln and the surrender at Appomattox in the same week. The resolution of this Crisis felt more like defeat than victory.
Renowned American historian Carl Degler called FDR’s New Deal the “Third American Revolution”. The Crisis began suddenly with the Black Tuesday stock-market crash in 1929. After a three-year economic free fall, the Great Depression triggered the New Deal Revolution, a vast expansion of government, and hopes for a renewal of national community. After Pearl Harbor, America planned, mobilized, and produced for world war on a scale never seen in the history of mankind, making possible complete victory over the Nazis and Fascists. In 1928 did anyone foresee an 89% stock market crash, worldwide depression, vast expansion of government power, a world war more devastating than the prior war, and the usage of an atomic weapon of mass destruction? Not a chance. Only in retrospect do people convince themselves that it was predictable.
Black Tuesday, October 29, 1929 marked the abrupt unforeseen end of the Roaring Twenties. The bewilderingly rapid collapse of the worldwide financial system in the space of three years left the American people shaken and desperate. With their wealth destroyed and unemployment exceeding 20%, the American public turned to Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his New Deal promises of government social and work programs. He declared “nationwide thinking, nationwide planning, and nationwide action, the three essentials of public life”. This was truly a Third American Revolution. FDR’s policies changed the course of American history. The renewed spirit of American youth during the 1930s was essential in preparing them for the trials that awaited from 1941 through 1945. It is somewhat ironic that FDR’s revolutionary social programs, begun during the last Crisis, will be a major factor in the current Crisis – the Fourth American Revolution.
Fourth American Revolution
“The US government is on a “burning platform” of unsustainable policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon.” – David M. Walker
No one knows exactly what events will transpire over the next 15 to 20 years as this Fourth Turning morphs from regeneracy to climax and finally to resolution. The mainstream media, most politicians, and self proclaimed progressives are blind to the cyclicality of history. They believe history proceeds in a linear upwards path. These are the people you see on TV talking about toning down the rhetoric, false gestures of bipartisanship, and soothing words about the financial crisis being a thing of the past. They fail to understand that once the mood of the country is catalyzed by a trigger event or events, there is no turning back the clock. Winter must be dealt with head on. Very few, if any, “financial experts” anticipated a housing collapse, followed by a deep recession, a 50% stock market crash, and a financial system which came within hours of total implosion on September 18, 2008 (as detailed in the documentary Generation Zero). Absolutely no one anticipated the extreme measures taken by the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to “Save” the country from a 2nd Great Depression. These measures have added $5 trillion to the National Debt in the last 40 months. It took 205 years to accumulate the 1st $5 trillion of debt.
While it is impossible to predict the exact trials and tribulations that will confront America over the next decade, the issues that will drive this Fourth Turning were clearly visible to anyone with their eyes open, many years in advance of the Crisis. Strauss & Howe clearly detailed the easily observable issues that led to the current Crisis back in 1997. Their book is not prophecy, but historically provable interactions between generations based upon the circumstances confronting society at the time.
“Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Fourth Turning. A spark will ignite a new mood. It will catalyze a Crisis. In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. It could be a rapid succession of small events in which the ominous, the ordinary, and the trivial are commingled.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
The authors use their common sense, based upon known trends, to posit potential catalyst scenarios such as:
- A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses nuclear weapons.
- Beset by a fiscal crisis, states begin to balk at Federal mandates leading to secession actions, militia violence, cyber attacks on the IRS, and demands for a new Constitutional Convention.
- An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The government shuts down. The President declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Financial markets spiral out of control. Default looms.
These “theoretical” scenarios were put forth in 1997. The authors concluded that these were unlikely, but that no matter what the catalyst, the response by the generations would be predictable. It seems this Fourth Turning is being driven by a succession of smaller triggers, rather than one large trigger. The housing collapse, which began in 2005, ultimately led to the world financial system collapse in 2008. The overreach by government in attempting to repair the damage done by Wall Street and K Street led to the Rick Santelli Tea Party Rant heard round the world in February 2009. The Tea Party movement has since taken the country by storm, surprising the linear thinkers and stunning the ruling elite. Last week a congresswoman and a dozen bystanders were gunned down, further darkening the mood of the country and inflaming passions among competing political ideologies. So what happens next?
Strauss & Howe postulated on the possible path of this Crisis and I see nothing to doubt their analysis:
“An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. It is unlikely that the catalyst will worsen into a full fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
The CNBC talking heads, mainstream media pundits, clueless Washington politicians, corrupt Wall Street shysters, and non-thinking robotic masses have been convinced that the actions taken by Ben Bernanke, Barack Obama, Tim Geithner and Congress have averted a financial disaster and saved the world. One hundred years from now when Chinese historians look back on the period from 2000 until 2025 they will ask themselves, “what the hell were they thinking?” The causes of this Crisis are as clear as day to anyone willing to see. A small group of Wall Street bankers and corporate interests through their proxy, the Federal Reserve, created the largest housing bubble in the history of the world generating hundreds of billions in obscene undeserved profits, while destroying the wealth and futures of millions of middle class Americans. Once the fraudulent nature of the bankers’ pillaging of the nation’s wealth came to light, the entire ponzi scheme collapsed, as they always do. On a parallel track, the Federal government, knowing full well that its un-payable social welfare commitments could never be fulfilled, decided to engage in two wars of choice, made additional un-payable social welfare commitments, and created new bloated bureaucratic agencies in the name of security and safety.
What will truly amaze future historians is the “solutions” that our leaders chose to save the country. Despite already being the largest debtor the planet has ever seen, with a National Debt of $8 trillion in 2005, the President and Congress have added an additional $6 trillion of debt, with plans to increase that debt at a rate of $1.5 trillion per year for the foreseeable future. Despite the fact that the housing boom was created by loose monetary policy and non-enforcement of existing laws and regulations by the Federal Reserve, our leaders have allowed this bank owned entity to reduce interest rates to 0%, buy $1.5 trillion of toxic mortgages from the Wall Street banks that caused the crisis, suspend requirements for banks to report their assets at their FMV, monetize the debt spending by the Federal Government, and create inflation through the printing of money out of this air. The Federal government’s response to the crisis was to create a mandated healthcare benefit for 35 million more Americans with no means to pay the untold trillions in future costs. Our leaders’ solution to a crisis caused by excessive debt has been to create twice as much debt. A passage from the Book of Matthew which Abraham Lincoln utilized during a prior Fourth Turning Crisis is a fitting description of where we stand today:
“Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand.” – Matthew 12:25
The country is deeply divided. There is a vast swath of America that has chosen ignorance over knowledge. With 50% of Americans paying no income taxes, they will vote for anyone who promises them more. The rest of America is split between those who believe the answer lies in increased Federal government coordination and control and those who want a return to liberty, individual responsibility and a vastly reduced Federal government footprint. As I have tried to figure out the most likely path of this Fourth Turning I was focused on an external conflict in the Middle East or an incident on the Korean Peninsula providing the next spark. After the shooting in Tucson, this Fourth Turning is beginning to crystallize.
What I realized was that the three previous American Revolutions all occurred on U.S. soil. The First American Revolution was fought on American soil by a loose confederation of autonomous states against the overbearing control of a great European empire. The Second American Revolution was fought by Americans against Americans and resulted in a vast expansion of Federal government power and diminishment of state power. The Third American Revolution took place under the auspices of saving America from the depths of Depression with government social programs and the birth of the Nanny State. Each Revolution has further expanded the power and control of the Federal government. I believe the Fourth American Revolution will ultimately come down to a battle between the Liberty movement and the ruling oligarchy of Wall Street, Mega-corporations and supporters of the Military Nanny State.
I trust that Strauss & Howe correctly assessed the main factor that will drive the next phase of this Crisis – the Great Devaluation:
“It could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed. With savings worth less, the new elders will become more dependent on government, just as government becomes less able to pay benefits to them. Before long, America’s old civic order will seem ruined beyond repair.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
There is no doubt in my mind that the next downward ratchet in this Crisis will be caused by Ben Bernanke and his attempt to generate just enough inflation to make our un-payable debt load less burdensome. His track record regarding economic forecasting, assessment of housing prices and anticipation of economic distress is flawless. He hasn’t been right once. With the top 1% richest Americans controlling 42% of the financial wealth in the country, an all-time high, the next leg down will boil over into class warfare. The middle class has been devastated thus far. Another stock market collapse and more job losses would push them over the edge. The evident failure of government solutions will invigorate the Liberty Movement to become even more strident in their anti-government message. The subsequent battle between the Haves and Have Nots is likely to flair into protests, riots and increasing violence. There will be no compromises. The 2012 Presidential election could incite reactions on par with the election of Lincoln in 1860. While the country convulsively flails about, foreign adversaries will take advantage of our weakness. Peak oil will throw a further wrench into the downward spiral. Out of this tempest, the country will either turn to a strong leader and more government control or move back toward a smaller Federal government footprint and a return to rule by the people and for the people. The outcome is unknown, but the path is foreseeable. Let’s hope that Ben Franklin was right.
All of us who were engaged in the struggle must have observed frequent instances of superintending providence in our favor. To that kind providence we owe this happy opportunity of consulting in peace on the means of establishing our future national felicity. And have we now forgotten that powerful friend? Or do we imagine that we no longer need his assistance? I have lived, Sir, a long time, and the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this truth-that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the Ground without his Notice, is it probable that an Empire can rise without his Aid?” – Benjamin Franklin, To Colleagues at the Constitutional Convention
“History offers no guarantees. If America plunges into an era of depression or violence which by then has not lifted, we will likely look back on the 1990s as the decade when we valued all the wrong things and made all the wrong choices.” – The Fourth Turning – Strauss & Howe -1997
Nice post Warren Bonesteel.
Smokey, I am quite surprised you want a Pre-Trial Verdict. Surely, you know my position. Surely, you can not expect a favorable ruling.
You have accused me of being a two faced, back-stabbing flip flopper. You have also accused me of sucking Jim’s balls just to get his favor. (But after reading the exchanges above and in the Afgan thread, you should be ashamed of every making such an accusation again. I suck no one’s balls …. I CRUSH them.)
What appears to be flip-flopping is merely my acknowledgement that both sides make pretty darn good arguments.
All I can do is promise complete impartiality. Both side MUST make their best case possible. Both sides MUST ANSWER the opponent’s objection rather than name calling …. which is just about fucking asking for the impossible here.
My verdict is this; Quinn will likely make the better argument with tons and tons of statistics and charts. However, he is also most likely to insult vehemently anyone who dares question his tons of statistics and charts. You, on the other hand, will flame and torch everyone and anyone because …… well, because you can. However, you won’t supply near the actual data Quinn does.
Therefore, for the above stated FACTS, my preTrial Verdict is leaning towards a Quinn Victory Parade. However, if he takes the low road too often (see his above posts), the vote can very well swing your way. It really is all up to you. I hope you are armed and prepared.
Based on my insults and vitriol spewed at Stuck this morning, I expect Smokey’s balls will be licked by Stuck on the War for Oil article.
I’ve actually done some research recently and just posted 2 parts of 3 about a similar cycle, of Saturn Returns, on my blog:
http://rv-prep-end-of-days.blogspot.com/2011/01/8th-us-saturn-return-part-1.html
Seems there are “important decisions” made during each of these times, approximately every 29 years, that have either immediate beneficial effects or end up culminating in major problems within 7 to 14 years. Of course, we’re right in the middle of the 8th US Saturn Return now, completing in August this year, so the decisions made today could culminate in the major turning point you’re seeing coming, the “fourth turning”, any time between now and 2024 by my clock.
FlyingDog, anything about Uranus Stinks? I think we’re in the 5th cycle of that. It’s not very useful for predicting events because of it’s short duration … every 2 – 3 days.
I’m outta here for the day. Couple BB games on ESPN including Indiana-Wisconsin at 9PM, and IU will no doubt have their asses handed to them, which will put me in a fine fucking mood tomorrow to carry on the flame fest started by you-know-who. Adios!
You low-rent stinking piece of thankless dogshit. I offered you an opportunity that the vast majority of the world would gladly die for. And you equivocate. You are a fucking disgrace.
No more chances for you. I have had it. You and I are at war til the bitter end. No longer will I sit idly by playing with myself while you and Quinn rage at each other. HELL NO. I’ll jump right in on Quinn’s side and reduce you to tears. You have had your chances, more than you deserve. Don’t even THINk about crawling back. Don’t bother to offer money, sexual favors or anything else. We’re through.
Since I cannot read the Strauss and Howe book in the next 2 days while this thread is active, can someone tell me if the gist is that we are all slaves to this seasons/generational theory of civilization? Is it some god-like lock on society, that we cannot escape? In no circumstances is there a violation of the theory? And is the theory falsifiable?
Iowan, it’s not so much we’re “slaves” to it — they’re rhythms of history that go back multiple civilizations. The authors and other historians have reliably mapped it out going back to the Greeks. Does that mean that, given enough awareness of it, that humans cannot reshape their own history? Not sure… it’s never been attempted. Even then, it’s unlikely that all of society could / would move together in such a way to make that happen.
Falsifiable? Suppose anything is. This is theory by the way, not law. And it has anomalies. It’s not immutable.
Whatever you do, don’t just read the dust jacket and assume you know what’s in the entire book. It’s well worth the read. And further study. And comparison to other research, as some point out above. There’s too much empirical evidence to dispute that the authors do, indeed, have something here.
Iowan –
How dare you come on this site and ask questions without first reading the entire book cover to cover? And you better damn well read the Footnotes also. You’re a farmer. It’s winter. You don’t have jack shit to do. Don’t give me this crap you can’t read the book in 2 days unless you read Braille. Read the fucking book now! Come back when you’re not as stupid as Stuck.
Ninety percent of this thread is crap.
There is no possible way to predict the future without already knowing at least significant parts of it.
You can posture, blather, run off at the brain (through the mouth or keyboard) but there is still no possible way you can tell what’s coming tomorrow. Too many variables, too many unknowns, too many things that ricochet here and there between the unknowns, each one changing the outcome just a little bit until what you’ve predicted is nothing like what actually happens.
In the current U.S.A. socio-politican situation, you can have two things: one, a mirror to view the past where one can see “what happened if and when” and two, a piece of clear glass, reflecting nothing that represents the future or what comes tomorrow. Your piece of glass allows you to see what is happening now biased by what you see in the mirror, allowing you to let your imagination to rage onward and upward trying its’ best to reflect the mirror into the future to provide guidance to provide you the most security possible in an insecure world.
Ain’t gonna happen.
I have come to two conclusions about the world. One, that cycles do exist and a great amount of empirical evidence supports the ‘Fourth Turning” generational cycles. Second, that history, sociologically speaking repeats due to the fact that human nature has not had the time to evolve into any different form or slant while events are continuing to happen that have happened before, therefore drawing the same behavior from the human animal over and over with, if not the same results (due to technological progress) nonetheless so similar a reaction that we who truly do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it in one varied form or another and usually not a pleasant one either.
We have succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of the most intelligent among us as far as technology is concerned over the past 15,000 years. We have not managed to advance socially beyond language (written and spoken) during the same period and indeed have regressed significantly in trying to prove that all men and women are created equal when they obviously are not.
Where the social ideal within this country of pulling everyone down to the lowest common denomination came from, I have no idea. It is obviously now a global goal which will eventually mean that we will (world wide) be all be equally stupid and poor and then dead.
I personally have not one iota of hope that it will end any other way, short a few unexpected happenings such as nuclear wars, meteor strike or other extinction events which will reduce the population to the point that isolation once again allows us to reset civilization and start over.
Even then, it may be just rinse and repeat.
Iowan,
Why do you even come on this blog, you retarded sack of shit ? Nothing you say interests anyone except homos. You are a fool who thinks he is an intellectual. Go suck some intellectual cock, you wormy faggot.
Muck — “There is no possible way to predict the future without already knowing at least significant parts of it. ”
I officially hand you the baton. Enjoy the race. You are in deep doodoo.
Suggestion: Read up the word “prediction”. Go back to its Greek origins if at all possible. Try to work in a reference to the Oracle at Delphi. I believe she was also into 4th Turnings, and I know damn well she made predictions. Good luck
“Go suck some intellectual cock, you wormy faggot.” — supposedly me.
Listen Smokey, if you are going to impersonate me then at least try to use the same style of language and grammar that I use. I never, ever use the word “faggot”. You fail as an impersonator … except for your weekend gig as a Female Crossdressing Homo Impersonator.
Admin
You and Stucky going at it tooth and nail. Sweet. Just like the old days. You set him off with the pictures of dead war babies (thumbs down from me, too) on RE’s post. Smokey enters the fray. Food fight!!!
BTW, solving the looming energy crisis is the answer to this Fourth Turning winter. Not the total answer, of course. But it is the CRITICAL course correction. It can be done.
Mary Clyde
Smokey provided the appropriate TBP greeting to your 9/11 Truther bullshit. Out, out, damned spot!
Stuck:
I repeat, you cannot predict the future without knowing in advance significant parts of it. A prediction made without current knowledge of a significant part of the future dooms you to failure in your prediction because variables will throw off your prediction to the point of uselessness.
I’ll be glad to let you predict anything you want, but unless you already know things that will happen therein, you’re just sucking wind and will be either lucky (and accurate) or unlucky (sucking wind).
You CAN present probabilities from past experience and modeling the future – but it’s a probability, not a prediction and the model you use must be very accurate as well.
Muck, I agree with you 100%
I got my ass reamed for saying Strauss & Howe make predictions …. you know, like THEY say they do on the book jacket … which apparrently is a lie, I am told.
I stopped believing in predictions after reading The Great Late Planet Earth in 1972, and Hal Lindsey provided many Biblical proofs the world would end in 1975. Oops. Then he said 1980. Oops. Then he said 2000. Oops So, screw that predicting shit.
Stuck: Best thing to do is offer opinions… That way, no one jumps you for making a prediction that full of shit but you stand the chance of being a genius!
Predictions are so much fun to through out there – especially if you are in love with your own positions, it’s hard to resist – hence my failures now and then. But when called on them, I must always admit a “mea culpa” because, sure enough, I’m full of shit as far as any prediction is concerned without some mealy-mouthed “if” and “maybe” and “could be” is concerned!
But I sure love to try!
Make that “Throw out there”
Quit being so damn ignorant. It wasn’t The Great Late Planet EARTH.
It was The Late Great Planet Earth. Get it right.
Hal Lindsey sucks cock.
One of the things that I didn’t see mentioned in your excellent analysis, is how the politicians have deliberately flooded our country with immigrants (legal and illegal) over the past two decades who have NOT been encouraged to assimilate into our society, but rather are encouraged to continue with their language and own cultural practices.
We destroyed the American Indian societies by taking their culture, language, and religion away from them. This is what you do… if you want to destroy a nation, water down their cultural mores until they are no longer relevant. This is why you have seen the fights over gays, Christians, Christmas holidays, American holidays, such as Columbus Day, etc. come under fire. The elites are deliberately destroying our culture and our social mores so that we can, as a nation be destroyed.
The Tea Party, to me at least, represents a group of people who are saying…. “Wait a minute, now. You have simply taken us down a road that we no longer want to go. You can use all the politically correct (language control) propaganda you want, but we simply no longer buy it.”
It used to really bother me when I was called a racist and a homophobe simply because I disagreed with what was going on. Now I wear those terms as badges of honor because I know I am standing up for what is right, not for what is politically correct. And… I think more and more people are coming to see things this way.
I read T4T in 1998, one year after it published. I read it entirely, made mental notes, and put it away. Then GW Bush got elected – I began to smell a bad egg. After 9/11, I took out the book and read it slowly, seriously, carefully – thinking about every paragraph. For the next decade, I mapped major events to the book. But by 2004, at the height of the housing ‘prosperity’, and having some inside knowledge of Wall Street, I was convinced. T4T is for real and the ‘wall’ is unstoppable. I sold everything and moved out of USA in 2005. How’s that for conviction? One the best decisions of my life. Today I am sitting pretty.
Now my take on what’s coming. I fully agree with Q that it will be a class struggle. All class struggles are very complex in dynamics and things will be confusing, yet clear to those willing to open their eyes. Yes, this one is yet another domestic-based revolution in good old US of A. And like all previous 4th, a major foreign element is also at play. (British empire for #1, African ‘imports’ for #2, Europeans for #3) This time that foreign element is all too clear to see – China. Specifically, not the rise of a once-great superpower of China, but how USA reacts to it.
Let me repeat: The key is how America reacts to China rise henceforth. Because embedded into it is also how America deals with its considerable internal problems. China will be Japan at its height 25 years ago multiplied by at least 10. How does America deal with a billion determined, hard working proud but humbled people with giant thirst for knowledge, science, technology, invention, production, and deep cultures in the arts and philosophy? Add to that a people with a tremendous national desire to emerge from 150 years of ash and humiliation?
Well, ask the Brits how they dealt with the rise of the American superpower during 3/4 of the 20th century. I say carefully, practically, humbly, and try to get rid of the imperial bullshit in a hurry.
The imperial bullshit in DC, reflecting the country-wide bullshit called Exceptionalism, is alive and kicking like a Wall Street Bull in 2011. That’s exactly like how the Brits reacted to Germany rise back in 1900. Which led to a funny thing happened in 1914. Or America can learn from history and prefer how the same Brit, a generation later, reacted to the mighty USA after 1945. Either way, that reaction was an accurate measure of how the UK solved its considerable internal problems.
What T4T is teaching us is – one CAN learn from history, and the smart ones do.
Smokey,
Thank you, thank you, thank you!
I could not have come up with parody any better than what you have written to demonstrate how TOTALLY devoid of any intelligence you are.
If what you have written passes in your world as intelligent repartee, it would be interesting to hear what getting low down to you sounds like. Grunts, gas and gurgles?
I’m moving on. First and last time for me here. Some intelligent life, but surrounded by eighth grade drop outs.
Smokey runs off another new commentor. Well done douchebag.
Certainly food for thought, it is obvious that a big change is coming. Your thought and support that most will not get it, is certainly demonstrated by the comments I have read. A smart man will keep his head down, stay under the radar, and quietly get himself in a liquid position, bereft of paper assets, with gold and silver. Stockpile necessities, and be ready to change direction and location quickly. We don’t know where this is heading, and until you/we do, save yourself and your family and friends. This is the way to be a force for good, and be ready, when those that depend on you, including your country, desperately need your particular skills and abilities. It is clear that we have lost our way as a country. The American experiment in freedom is worth the struggle that is ahead to return our Representative Republic back in the direction that the founding fathers envisioned. Better men than me have given their lives, and fortunes to this country, that we might be free men. It is therefore my duty to offer mine. By the eternal God in heaven give us the will to perceiver
I’ve read “Fourth Turning.” Some of the time-periods have been shoehorned to fit the theory, but I believe its principles and lessons are sound.
That dog-fucking whore comes on this site and straight from the gate proclaims 911 was an inside job, in a manner that would give DP a hard-on. Then the bitch motherfucks the American people. What did you expect ? GFD, if you want Truthers for this site, they’re easy enough to recruit.
Smokey
I didn’t read her whole post. If you drove off a Truther, then well done.
Wow!! What started out as an intelligent discussion of a provocative, thoughtful book and a well reasoned opinion piece on the potential for the book’s thesis to be realized has become a classic example of just the sort of uncivil discourse the book envisions. It is readily apparent that the position of the book is proven in this thread. I have read both books by the authors mentioned in this thread and find that it hits the target square in the bullseye, as demonstrated by the posters herein. Keep your powder dry boys and pass the ammunition – the republic is in danger!
PS Not all of us boomers are war mongers, but we will fight to protect our freedoms, fought and paid for by our ancestors. Live free or die!!
Admin: Thinker, Could you explain to people why 9/11 wasn’t the catalyst?
Okay, Jim… but where do I start? I’ll try to make it simple, since many haven’t read the book or understand the theory.
Basically, a Crisis catalyst is something that dramatically changes the public mood. It happens in response to problems that have been ignored for too long – until those problems literally become a matter of life or death for the society. People realize that “something’s got to change” and rally together to make those changes, which often include great sacrifice.
The other key characteristic of a transition from a 3T (Autumn) into a 4T (Winter) is the generational makeup of the time; it is always:
Prophets/Idealists entering Elderhood
Nomads/Reactives entering Midlife
Heroes/Civics entering Young Adulthood
New Silents/Artists entering Childhood
(Note: the theory is predicated on generational patterns; it’s the lineup of the generations that drives the Turning, not the other way around)
Okay, so 9/11. The problem with 9/11 is two-fold. One, we didn’t have the correct generational lineup. Prophets (Boomers) weren’t beginning to retire, and Nomads (Gen X) were still in young adulthood and not yet taking over any institutions as new leaders. The New Silents (Homelanders) weren’t even being born yet… Heroes (Millennials)still were. The oldest Millennials were in high school. The Millennial generation ended around 2005, when the Homelander generation began. So that would place the beginning of the 4T at 2005 at the VERY earliest.
Second, the public’s response to 9/11 didn’t fit a typical 4T mood. Yes, we rallied behind the country and everyone decided we needed to go off to war. We allowed government to strengthen over us with the Patriot Act. All of these could easily be mistaken for a 4T response, except for one thing: it was short lived. Remember being told to “go shopping?” Remember those American flags people clipped on their car windows? Very 3T (Unraveling). Remember the questions about who was responsible, and how we might have “deserved” it? 3T rhetoric at its best. Paranoia is a constant characteristic of a late Unraveling… and that paranoia continued on for quite some time. In a 4T, there’s no paranoia. The threat is clear enough that everyone understands what it is and what needs to be done about it.
Also, the wars that resulted from 9/11 were not typical of 4T wars. In a Crisis, wars are total wars. They force everyone in the world to take a stand on one side or the other. 3T wars, on the other hand, are often “unnecessary” wars… the reasons for them are up for debate and they usually end up solving nothing. They do, however, set up many of the issues that eventually need to be resolved in the 4T in order for society to move on to its next chapter.
So, let’s look at 2005. Katrina showed us that we couldn’t count on this all-powerful government of ours, particularly the institutions that had been set up in response to 9/11 (like DHS). We’d been told that giving up our freedoms would make us safer, but it turned out that wasn’t true. And the beginning of the housing crisis showed us that all the regulations supposedly protecting us weren’t working, either. That government had even helped with the deception. By 2008, those issues and lack of confidence led to a very real problem: a collapse of the stock market and a resulting decline of 60% on the Dow.
Do the majority of Americans now believe that the problem is a corrupt, corporate-bought government? Do we unite to do something about it, throwing off partisan rhetoric (e.g., 2010 election)? Do we view any continuing rhetoric with disdain (e.g., Tucson)? If so, it’s a 4T.
And before some cynic asks why we’re not in a major war yet, just keep in mind these things don’t happen overnight. Look at the cycles of history… a lot of smaller events led up to the American Revolution… the Stamp Act (1765), the Townshend Acts (1768), the Massachusetts Circular Letter (1768), and the Occupation of Boston (1768). Finally, the 1770 Boston Massacre. All well before the Declaration of Independence (1776) and war against the British. The Civil War and Great Depression/WWII had their share, too. In fact, WWI serves as a good example of a 3T, “unnecessary” war that didn’t resolve anything and led to the problems that developed into WWII. Compare it to Iraq and Afghanistan today.
Well, it’s long but that’s the Crisis catalyst theory in a nutshell. Sorry for the long read. If the discussion merits it, those of us who have read the books and ascribe to the theory can continue.
Thinker
That was an excellent synopsis. I’m sure Stuck will come along to say how fucking stupid you are and that you worship Strauss & Howe.
Do you want me to make you a contributor? I’d love for you to post your thoughts.
Neil Howe suggested that I have a Fourth Turning section of my website where all the Fourth Turning articles and posts could be stored.
This article has gone viral. Almost 11,000 visitors yesterday and today might top that because Lew Rockwell and 321Gold posted it today. I wonder how many will be aghast at the comment stream?
While I will certainly agree with the sentiment that nobody could have predicted the overall couse of each of these turnings in american history, it is quite innaccurate to say that “nobody predicted” things like the stock market collapse of 1929, or even the housing collapse of 2008. Austrian economists who understand sound economic principles clearly understand and have attempted to warn others of the effects of fiat money, inflation, bubbles, and inevitable collapses. Use of such generalities as “everyone” in regards to acceptance of government responses to crises is likewise misinformed and disingenuous. Thousands opposed FDR’s push to get us into WW2. Millions opposed government responses to 9-11 and the like. To assume unilateral support ignores the fact that it is these very conflicts that lay the groundwork for the upheavals that follow. The foundation of the next turning will be built on the parasitic nature of most of society living off the productivity of the rest. The objections to the rampant police state, massive growth of government controls, massive injection of fiat money in response to the 2008 collapse and the like are prevalent in a major segment of society while the passive sheep remain ignorant of the consequences. Plenty can very well imagine the horror our own government may choose to unleash as it struggles to remain relevant and hold onto growing power. It is those very folks that are indeed shouting out the warnings.
Ben Franklin absolutely correct about our government over 200 years ago. They left us a Republic but we could not keep it. I’m putting my faith in God, gold, and silver.
Sure, Jim, if you think I’d have something valuable to add.
Agree with Neil that you should dedicate a section of your site to the Fourth Turning, so we can document progress and discuss as it plays out. It would be nice to have a mostly-Libertarian approach to it, given that I expect the Liberty Movement to play a major role in this Crisis.
@Thinker: Great post. Take Admin up on being upgraded to a contributor. Someone who thinks as clearly as you will be a welcome addition to TBP.
Of course I don’t entirely agree with you on some points such as a number of prominent voices in the wilderness did indeed see the housing bubble, pointed it out and watched it blow.. Just like a number of people recognized the dot.com bubble forming (P/E of 300 plus) and warned about that too.
All in all, however, a superior posting.
Thinker
You are now a contributor. I’ll see how I can set up a section for the 4th Turning discussions.
Also, Think-about-it, I find myself disagreeing on your point that discussing and arguing various points and economic views and bringing to light the slimy underbelly of our FS of A can’t or won’t solve anything.
If nothing else, it informs readers of this Site (both those who comment and those who lurk), hopefully at times encourages thinking on their part or imparts a new set of views on a problem or subject that they thought to be settled and find out it’s not.
I still think old Bulwer-Lytton in 1839 was right about wielding a pen, albeit tougher today as the number of media outlets (from newspapers to TBP to FB) limits the number of people reached simply by default of so many routes into which one has to feed information.
Thanks for the compliment, Muck. Not sure what you mean about people predicting the housing bubble or economic view, though — were those intended for someone else?
Admin, thanks. I’ll do my best.
Reading the dross, insult, ad hominem, vulgar language, utter filth, uninformed blather, et al; was most difficult.
YES, I read The Book. This MOST Holy Book. Obviously I must buy another copy and read it again.
That said, I most humbly suggest that those on this forum, who consider themselves the literati of all things known, within the arcane world of Political Economy, and also of Sooth-Saying; take a few moments and read Nikolai D. Kondratiev, and HIS books on cycles. I have the four volume set, and each volume only has about 380 pages, so for Those WHo Know All, you should be able to read through the volumes with little if any trouble.
AFTER I’ve both bought and read again, The Great Book, I shall consider posting some few humble thoughts.
My reading credentials include Das Kapital, (both in the original German and later ENglish versions), The COmmunist Manifesto, and a few other short reads.
I WILL say that rarely do I encounter the lack of class, be it by the foul verbiage by the administer, OR the contributing “Thinkers” in the many forums/blogs, I humbly endeavor to peruse upon a weekly basis.
I must say that the majority of you seem to be examples of SImple Simon Met a Pie Man Then They Both Spewed Shit.
But then again, that is only MY humble opinion and what the heck would ***I*** know about that?
HA HA HA
josef
YOU appear to be a fuckwad. We breathlessly await your words of wisdom.
Some evils are necessary and I suppose that’s why they are written into “the script”.
As we move more and more toward asset backed , decentralized, gold backed digital currency where debt-free payments are made in the blink of an eye, the consciousness will eventually seep in that the dollar plays a vital role in the development of such a liquid & debt-free trading system.
Within a free floating, debt based, fiat currency paradigm, the dollar’s role is/was/will be that of a currency.
Within a real-time free floating gold currency paradigm, the dollar still has a vital role. That role is not that of a currency however, but acts as a measure for gold weighted payment for things that are priced in a fiat currency. The dollar price of gold in real-time, borrowed from the fiat paradigm, acts as a “bridge” between fiat pricing and weighted gold payment.
In short, if there was no real-time measurement capability, there would be no way to make real-time gold payments. That real-time measuring capability runs right through the dollar development. Like I said, some evils seems to be necessary for the greater good.
The above may put the whole purpose of Bretton Woods into proper perspective. It was about getting the chess pieces on the same board in order to pull the fixed peg and go to a floating paradigm where, only later, gold could be properly monetized by making weighted title to bullion the actual real-time currency.
We can each buy a stick of gum (technically) from a merchant of the other side of the world now, make exact payment using fully backed bullion currency, debt-free, close out the transaction, COMPLETELY (no lingering IOU) and do so in the blink of an eye. Debt-free store of value has married instant global liquidity
There’s no system design problem . There is simply a marketing challenge to overcome. Perfect for Americans !
JQ: “Debating the concept of the Fourth Turning with Stuck is like debating with a lobotomized shit eating monkey.”
JQ: “That was an excellent synopsis. I’m sure Stuck will come along to say how fucking stupid you are and that you worship Strauss & Howe.”
.
This is HILARIOUS. It really is. You sometimes mention quotes being nominated for The Hall of Fame. Honestly, you really should keep notes on good/funny/biazarre/etc. quotes here on TBP. It might be the foundation for a good book some day.
You might include a chapter on Bizzaro Debate. Include this one between you and me … a weird-assed mud slinging fest over what?? ONE FUCKING WORD!!
Today I am once again filled with the Holy Spirit so, fuck you, I will not retaliate for your lobotomized monkey comment. I trust the monkey will not retaliate either.
.
.
Hey, I got a $25 gift certificate for B&N. Really. Should I buy The Fourth Turning?
Also, today is our 3th day of sleeping on our new mattress. It’s a Tempurpedic — Swedish foam. Absolutely MARVELEOUS!!! I am not kidding. We haven’t had sex on it yet cuz I don’t wanna get my foam all over that foam. I mean, will it explode or what? Anyway, just thought I’d mention that cuz it might be one reason I was so fucking grouchy yesterday.
Stuck
Save your $25 certificate for a new Webster’s dictionary. Buy the book through my link and earn me 60 cents.
I posted a comment on Seeking Alpha yesterday and someone came back with this response:
One of the top 10 James Quinn insults compiled at SeekingAlpha:
“You might be the most clueless moron I have ever stepped on here at Seeking Lemmings.”
@josef zack, since you find us so vulgar and lacking in class, perhaps you’d prefer to see a generational approach to analyzing Kondratiev waves here:
Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics
You’ll see that, while Kondratiev waves are fairly consistent at predicting the stock market, they do not predict all societal changes. Using the Turnings theory, you’ll see Crisis (4T) and Awakening (2T) periods correspond to bear markets associated with the Kondratiev downwave and upwave, respectively. The most recent of these periods were 1929-49 and 1966-82, which do line up well with the Turnings. The High (1T) and Unraveling (3T) correspond to stock bull markets associated with the Kondratiev upwave and downwave.
Or, more simply put, they’re complementary, not competing theories. And both still show anomalies. Try to wrap your brain around that.
Anyway, back to the looming Crisis that unsustainable policies have gotten us into, how ironic is it that Orszag writes something like this:
“The bottom line is that there may well be US public debt tremors this year, both during federal debate over raising the debt ceiling and with at least a limited number of crises in local and city governments. The bigger problem, though, lies beyond 2011, as the unsustainability of the federal government’s fiscal trajectory becomes increasingly clear. I hope it does not ultimately require a crisis to restore fiscal sustainability at the federal level, but I fear it will.”
More here.
Tuscon was a MAJOR defining moment for me. Mainstream media went wall to wall with coverage using their top people way in to the night. I could not watch it even though I am a news junkie. I could not control my mind chatter. ‘Well, hell, no flag flies upside down and half staff when dead soldiers come home in the belly of a cold C-130.’ ‘Government didn’t mind spraying us from overhead with toxic Corexit chemicals.’ ‘Despite the US military presence in Haiti, no one thought to bring a few bottles of Clorox.’ ‘They don’t mind mandating GMO food.’
The whole twisted weekend was a game changer for me. Completely. No more television news for me. It’s gone. The stations humiliated themselves, shamed themselves, and exposed themselves for the phonies they have become.
Tuscon. The US spun out.
Definitely a BIG marker event on the path to destruction.
TVES
Jim and Stuck still going at it and I am out of popcorn and cokes.
Nikolai Kondratieff wrote about this stuff back in the Twenties. stalin didn’t like it and he ended up dying in a Gulag. Straus and Howe also owe Eliot Wave which is all about social mood.
Sadly i have to agree with Reverse Engineer. Far, far larger problems are converging here. We are running into an energy wall just as our world becomes more and more dependent on reliable flows of electrons. A larger and larger portion of the population is wholly ignorant of how to operate and maintain (let alone produce or improve upon) the systems which support their very existence. They exist to revel in their ignorance and to consume that which they could never produce. The end of this unsustainable system will cause untold hardship. I’ll be reading up on herbal medicine, soapmaking, pickling, smoking, brining, canning, etc. in the mean time.
also see:
‘Samuel J. “Bud” Kress’ and ‘Kress Cycles.’
‘The Rise and Fall of Civilizations,’ by Miller, Joubert and Butler.
There are literally hundreds of resources you can reference to back up what is said by Stauss and Howe in their now infamous book.
What we are now experiencing, and have experienced all of our lifes, are cycic events, if oftentimes arrhythmically cyclic events.
No nation, culture or civilization escapes these cycles. Not a one.
The only ‘escape’ is to completely change the power and control paradigm mankind has suffered under throughout our know existence, which would cause the ‘eotwawki’ in any case. The world would change, in some rather unexpected ways, were we to do so. Even so,.. all we can really learn to do by changing the current power and control paradigm is to attenuate the severity of the cyclic downturns. ie, limit the damage, death and destruction which always results from the eventual and utterly predictable downturns.
No matter what….A country boy can survive !
Jim,
Do yourself and the rest of society a great favor; monitor some of these raunchy, ignorant and baseless comments from your site. It is a disgrace to have to view such vulgarity and lack of education and manners. Such vile commentary should be relegated to places decent men and women would never visit. Whore houses would be ashamed of such talk!
We are discussing the fate of a nation and possibly the world here. To put up with such drivel is shameful to the highest degree and discredits your work, your site and you personally as well as trivializes the subject matter.
For a gentleman of your stature to even respond to such muck reflects badly on your character and the taste of your readers.
Hardrock
Sorry. This site is what it is. It is designed to offend people. Anyone can say anything they damn well please. I don’t care who is disappointed in the dialogue. I will not censor. I will leave that to the MSM and the Dept of Homeland Security. You are free to go back to their propaganda or get your hands dirty on a website that doesn’t care what anyone in authority thinks. The choice is yours.
Hardrock-I get what you are saying, but…. There are enough places where political correctness at some level is required for survival. TBP is not one of those places. The truth can be brutal, and brutal honesty, even if vulgar, has its place. Personally, I don’t use the level of obscenity sometimes seen here, but who hasn’t wanted to ask “what the fuck?” without having to abbreviate it? I can live without the sexual innuendo trash talk, but then again, what does it hurt? Free flow of ideas trumps an arbitrary “web etiquette”.
Administrator—–I just gave you BOTH of the two thumbs up.
Thanks Smokey.
This is the real danger of a website gaining popularity. I’ve already seen it with Seeking Alpha and Barry Ritholtz’ site. The more successful they become, the more vanilla they become. When Seeking Alpha was new they loved my articles. They generated huge visitor counts and comment streams. Now they rarely accept any of my articles. They even turned down the ethanol article. I asked why and received no response.
This site will turn off most people because of the rough and tumble dialogue. I want to piss people off. I want them to distrust their government and the MSM. They will use any method to keep the masses sedated.
Avalon told me I have to go with the flow sometimes. I told her that the whole point of the site is to go against the flow. I refuse to go with the flow. If I ever get politically correct or seem to be selling out, make sure you hammer me unmercilessly.
Administrator,
I just posted on another of your threads that it appears to me that ZH allows wide latitude on their site also. It does not appear to adversely affect the appeal of their site, or their growth.
If and when this site becomes enormous, I don’t think you’d be blackballed by advertisers, if you wanted to let a couple on your site. They might not be the SAME advertisers that a watered-down, pussy site would attract, but I do think there may be some non-PC ones who are by that time interested.
The way I see it from blogs that I have followed is that if you want to make a living of it, you have to become somewhat mainstream to attract the most audience. However, you can make a living of it in the niche market too. Evidence is Alex Jones and his foaming-at-the-mouth, doom-stout, 9/11 truther thing he’s got going with PrisonPlanet and Infowars and whatever the fuck other websites he has. He seems too have become too much “the Jews/Zionists/Illuminati did it” to me and I quit paying attention. That and you can become a slave to your material and can lose a certain amount of lattitude.
And you’re right, “The Fourth Turning” is pretty good even 25 pages into it. It certainly is no slouch in making one aware of the dogma of time. I will give it a read and might have some synthesis to do on it.
From an angelic perspective, peace is always available to humans, but they rarely have time to find it. We see people who encounter momentary states of peace that are created by the energy and force of specific circumstances in their life. While it does not seem likely that a person would actually work to avoid the peace that they so crave, this is exactly what most people do for most of their lives. The culprit behind this avoidance is human self-will (something you call ego).
When you are in a state of peace, you are living from the essence of your soul. Your soul dominates your experience of life and your ego’s role is greatly diminished. Remember, as viewed from an angelic perspective, your ego’s primary role is to keep you safe and allow you to function wonderfully in the physical world. Your ego is designed to be a tool to carry out your soul’s mission in the world. Its domain is the world outside of you. It constantly gathers data about this outer world, alert to danger, and looking for opportunities for you to enact the mission of your soul and bring your soul’s gifts into the world.
Unfortunately in many lives the ego becomes the dominant force and the influence of soul is reduced. When this happens, the person’s primary focus is on the outer world and the primary directive in their life becomes satisfying their greed and bolstering their sense of self-importance in the world, without much care of concern for the well being of other people or the planet you live on. It becomes, as your twist of phrase says, “do unto others before they do unto you”. And all the while, a life driven by this outward defending and amassing finds it difficult at best to be at peace. For the very actions of defending your possessions, or your status, or your self-importance, while seeking to obtain more and more, are born in the energy of fear, and peace cannot be found in the dimension of fear.
World peace is not achieved by the ending of all war, but rather by the uniting of all hearts. When you stop conflict that is rooted in anger and fear, you simply delay the outbreak of more conflict. When you unite the hearts of people, there is no fuel to feed the fire of conflict, and there is no way to sustain war. When enough people exist in a state of peace, the scales will tip and the energy of your planet will shift people out of the dimension of fear and move them into the dimension of love. Every person who can enter into the state of peace will accelerate this tipping.