EXTEND & PRETEND IS WALL STREET’S FRIEND

“We now have an economy in which five banks control over 50 percent of the entire banking industry, four or five corporations own most of the mainstream media, and the top one percent of families hold a greater share of the nation’s wealth than any time since 1930. This sort of concentration of wealth and power is a classic setup for the failure of a democratic republic and the stifling of organic economic growth.” – Jesse – http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Source: Barry Ritholtz

“All of the old-timers knew that subprime mortgages were what we called neutron loans — they killed the people and left the houses.” – Louis S. Barnes, 58, a partner at Boulder West, a mortgage banking firm in Lafayette, Colo

The storyline that has been sold to the public by the Federal government, Wall Street, and the corporate mainstream media over the last two years is the economy is recovering and the banking system has recovered from its near death experience in 2008. Wall Street profits in 2009 & 2010 totaled approximately $80 billion. The stock market has risen almost 100% since the March 2009 lows. Wall Street CEOs were so impressed by this fantastic performance they dished out $43 billion in bonuses over the two year period to their thousands of Harvard MBA paper pushers. It is amazing that an industry that was effectively insolvent in October 2008 has made such a spectacular miraculous recovery. The truth is recovery is simple when you control the politicians and regulators, and own the organization that prints the money.

A systematic plan to create the illusion of stability and provide no-risk profits to the mega-Wall Street banks was implemented in early 2009 and continues today. The plan was developed by Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner and the CEOs of the criminal Wall Street banking syndicate. The plan has been enabled by the FASB, SEC, IRS, FDIC and corrupt politicians in Washington D.C. This master plan has funneled hundreds of billions from taxpayers to the banks that created the greatest financial collapse in world history. The authorities had a choice. This country has bankruptcy laws. The criminally negligent Wall Street banks could have been liquidated in an orderly bankruptcy. Their good assets could have been sold off to banks that did not take their extreme greed based risks. Bond holders and stockholders would have been wiped out. Today, we would have a balanced banking system, with no Too Big To Fail institutions. Instead, the years of placing their cronies within governmental agencies and buying off politicians paid big dividends for Wall Street. Their return on investment has been fantastic.

The plan has been as follows:

In April 2009 the FASB caved in to pressure from the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Wall Street to suspend mark to market rules, allowing the Wall Street banks to value their loans and derivatives as if they were worth 100% of their book value.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet consistently totaled about $900 billion until September 2008. By December 2008, the balance sheet had swollen to $2.2 trillion as the Federal Reserve bought $1.3 trillion of toxic assets from the Wall Street banks, paying 100 cents on the dollar for assets worth 50% of that value.

In November 2009 the Federal Reserve and IRS loosened the rules for restructuring commercial loans without triggering tax consequences. Banks were urged to extend loans on properties that had fallen 40% in value as if they were still worth 100% of the loan value.
By December 2008 the Federal Reserve had moved their discount rate to 0%. For the last two years, the Wall Street banks have been able to borrow from the Federal Reserve for free and earn a risk free return of 2%. The Federal Reserve has essentially handed billions of dollars to Wall Street.
When it became clear in October 2010 that after almost two years of unlimited liquidity being injected into the veins of zombie banks was failing, Ben Bernanke announced QE2. He has expanded the Fed balance sheet to $2.6 trillion by injecting $3.5 billion per day into the stock market by buying US Treasury bonds. Bernanke’s stated goal has been to pump up the stock market. While taking credit for driving stock prices higher, he denies any responsibility for the energy and food inflation that is spurring unrest around the world.
The Federal Reserve has increased the monetary base by $500 billion in the last three months in a desperate attempt to give the appearance of recovery to a floundering economy.

Beginning on December 31, 2010, through December 31, 2012, all noninterest-bearing transaction accounts are fully insured, regardless of the balance of the account, at all FDIC-insured institutions. The unlimited insurance coverage is available to all depositors, including consumers, businesses, and government entities. This unlimited insurance coverage is separate from, and in addition to, the insurance coverage provided to a depositor’s other deposit accounts held at an FDIC-insured institution.

When You’re Losing – Change the Rules

Wall Street banks had absolutely no problem with mark to market rules from 2000 through 2007, as the value of all their investments soared. These banks created products (subprime, no-doc, Alt-A mortgages) whose sole purpose was to encourage fraud. Their MBA geniuses created models that showed that if you packaged enough fraudulent loans together and paid Moody’s or S&P a big enough bribe, they magically became AAA products that could be sold to pension plans, municipalities, and insurance companies. These magnets of high finance were so consumed with greed they believed their own lies and loaded their balance sheets with the very toxic derivatives they were peddling to the clueless Europeans. They didn’t follow a basic rule. Don’t crap where you sleep. When the world came to its senses and realized that home prices weren’t really worth twice as much as they were in 2000, investment houses began to collapse like a house of cards. The AAA paper behind the plunging real estate wasn’t worth spit. After Lehman Brothers collapsed and AIG’s bets came up craps for the American people, the financial system rightly froze up.

After using fear and misinformation to ram through a $700 billion payoff to Goldman Sachs and their fellow Wall Street co-conspirators through Congress, it was time begin the game of extend and pretend. Market prices for the “assets” on the Wall Street banks’ books were only worth 30% of their original value. Obscuring the truth was now an absolute necessity for Wall Street. The Financial Accounting Standards Board already allowed banks to use models to value assets which did not have market data to base a valuation upon. The Federal Reserve and Treasury “convinced” the limp wristed accountants at the FASB to fold like a cheap suit. The FASB changed the rules so that when the market prices were not orderly, or where the bank was forced to sell the asset for regulatory purposes, or where the seller was close to bankruptcy, the bank could ignore the market price and make up one of its own. Essentially the banking syndicate got to have it both ways. It drew all the benefits of mark to market pricing when the markets were heading higher, and it was able to abandon mark to market pricing when markets went in the toilet.

“Suspending mark-to-market accounting, in essence, suspends reality.” – Beth Brooke, global vice chair, at Ernst & Young

Wall Street desired all the billions of upside from creating new markets for new products. Their creativity knew no bounds as they crafted MBOs, MBSs, CDOs, CDSs, and then chopped them into tranches, selling them around the world with AAA stamps of approval from the soulless whore rating agencies. When the net result of a flawed system of toxic garbage paper was revealed, there was no room at the exits for the stampede of investment bankers. The toxic paper was on the banks’ books and no one wanted to admit the greed induced decision to purchase these highly risky, volatile “assets”. The trade had not gone bad, the ponzi scheme had unraveled. Suspending FASB 157 has been an attempt to hide this fraudulent business model from investors, regulators and the public. By hiding the true value of these assets, the financial system has never cleared. The banks remain in a zombie vegetative state, with the Federal Reserve providing the IV and the life support system.

Let’s Play Hide the Losses

Part two of the master cover-up plan has been the extending of commercial real estate loans and pretending that they will eventually be repaid. In late 2009 it was clear to the Federal Reserve and the Treasury that the $1.2 trillion in commercial loans maturing between 2010 and 2013 would cause thousands of bank failures if the existing regulations were enforced. The Treasury stepped to the plate first. New rules at the IRS weren’t directly related to banking, but allowed commercial loans that were part of investment pools known as Real Estate Mortgage Investment Conduits, or REMICs, to be refinanced without triggering tax penalties for investors.

The Federal Reserve, which is tasked with making sure banks loans are properly valued, instructed banks throughout the country to “extend and pretend” or “amend and pretend,” in which the bank gives a borrower more time to repay a loan. Banks were “encouraged” to modify loans to help cash strapped borrowers. The hope was that by amending the terms to enable the borrower to avoid a refinancing that would have been impossible, the lender would ultimately be able to collect the balance due on the loan. Ben and his boys also pushed banks to do “troubled debt restructurings.” Such restructurings involved modifying an existing loan by changing the terms or breaking the loan into pieces. Bank, thrift and credit-union regulators very quietly gave lenders flexibility in how they classified distressed commercial mortgages. Banks were able to slice distressed loans into performing and non-performing loans, and institutions were able to magically reduce the total reserves set aside for non-performing loans.

If a mall developer has 40% of their mall vacant and the cash flow from the mall is insufficient to service the loan, the bank would normally need to set aside reserves for the entire loan. Under the new guidelines they could carve the loan into two pieces, with 60% that is covered by cash flow as a good loan and the 40% without sufficient cash flow would be classified as non-performing. The truth is that billions in commercial loans are in distress right now because tenants are dropping like flies. Rather than writing down the loans, banks are extending the terms of the debt with more interest reserves included so they can continue to classify the loans as “performing.” The reality is that the values of the property behind these loans have fallen 43%. Banks are extending loans that they would never make now, because borrowers are already grossly upside-down.

Extending the length of a loan, changing the terms, and pretending that it will be repaid won’t generate real cash flow or keep the value of the property from declining. U.S. banks hold an estimated $156 billion of souring commercial real-estate loans, according to research firm Trepp LLC. About two-thirds of commercial real-estate loans maturing at banks from now through 2015 are underwater. Media shills proclaiming that the market is improving, doesn’t make it so. The chart below details the delinquency rates from 2007 through 2010 as reported by the Federal Reserve:

	Real estate loans			Consumer loans
	All	Booked in domestic offices		All	Credit cards	Other
	All	Residential	Commercial	All	Credit cards	Other
2010 4th Qtr	9.01	9.94	7.97	3.71	4.17	3.10
2010 3rd Qtr	9.77	10.90	8.69	4.03	4.60	3.39
2010 2nd Qtr	10.02	11.32	8.74	4.25	5.07	3.37
2010 1st Qtr	9.78	10.97	8.66	4.63	5.76	3.48
2009 4th Qtr	9.48	10.29	8.74	4.64	6.36	3.48
2009 3d Qtr	9.00	9.67	8.57	4.72	6.51	3.61
2009 2nd Qtr	8.19	8.69	7.84	4.85	6.75	3.69
2009 1st Qtr	7.19	7.89	6.55	4.62	6.50	3.52
2008 4th Qtr	5.99	6.57	5.49	4.29	5.65	3.37
2008 3rd Qtr	4.88	5.26	4.66	3.73	4.80	3.05
2008 2nd Qtr	4.21	4.39	4.15	3.55	4.89	2.80
2008 1st Qtr	3.56	3.70	3.50	3.48	4.76	2.76
2007 4th Qtr	2.89	3.06	2.75	3.41	4.60	2.66
2007 3rd Qtr	2.40	2.78	1.98	3.20	4.41	2.48
2007 2nd Qtr	2.01	2.30	1.63	2.99	4.02	2.37
2007 1st Qtr	1.77	2.03	1.43	2.93	3.97	2.29

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Delinquency rates on residential and commercial loans in early 2007 were in the range of 1.5% to 2.0%. Now the MSM pundits get excited over a decline from 8.7% to 8.0%. These figures show that even after trillions of Federal Reserve and Federal Government intervention, delinquencies remain four times higher than normal. In the real world, cash flow matters. Payment of interest and principal on a loan matters. Actual market values matter. According to Trepp, LLC, a data firm specializing in commercial data, non-performing commercial real estate loans makes up 72% of the $320 million in non-performing loans reported by banks in February. These figures are after the “extremely” relaxed definition of non-performing allowed by the Federal Reserve. The game is ongoing. Misinformation abounds. The SEC now issues press releases saying they are worried that banks are covering up losses, when they were involved in encouraging the banks to cover-up their losses. Last week the SEC announced they have become concerned that extend and pretend, along with another practice known as “troubled debt restructuring” that allows banks to break loans into pieces, may have been abused in order to diminish the volume of reserves banks are holding. What a shocking revelation. Who could have known?

Are You Smarter than a Wall Street CEO?

The Federal Reserve paid shills and Wall Street front men are out in droves declaring that TARP was a success and the banking system is recovering strongly. Columnists like Robert Samuelson declare TARP was a great investment and will profit the taxpayer. Samuelson says that the Treasury has recouped $244 billion of the $245 billion it invested in banks and that, when it winds down its last investments, it likely will show a $20 billion profit from the banks. This type of propaganda is ludicrous, as Barry Ritholtz succinctly points out:

“No, we are not profitable on the bailouts. TARP has $123B to go before breakeven, and the GSEs are $133B in the hole. All told, the Taxpayers have a long way to go before we are breakeven. That’s before we count lost income from savings, bonds, etc., the increased costs of food stuff and energy due to inflation (the Fed’s has done this on purpose as part of their rescue plan), the higher fees the reduced competition of megabanks has created, and the future costs our Moral Hazard will have wrought in increased risks and disasters.” – Barry Ritholtz

Source: Barry Ritholtz

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have hundreds of billions in bad loans sitting on their balance sheets. Their total cost to taxpayers will reach $400 billion, and never be repaid. The Federal Reserve has over $1 trillion in toxic assets on its balance sheet, off loaded by the TARP recipient banks in 2009. The taxpayer will never be repaid for this toxic waste. The government is implementing the Big Lie theory. If you tell a big lie often and loud enough, the non-thinking masses will believe it. That leaves us with today’s fantasy world.

The reality on the ground does not match the rhetoric coming from the government, Wall Street and the corporate mainstream media. The truth is as follows:

The vacancy rate for office space in the U.S. is currently 16.5%.
The vacancy rate for industrial space in the U.S. is currently 14.2%.
The vacancy rate for retail space in the U.S. is currently 13%.
Delinquencies within collateralized debt obligations in commercial real estate loans rose to 14.6% in February. The increase signals a trend of higher delinquencies in the segment. Signs of pressure surfaced as early as January when the delinquency rate on CDOs within commercial real estate loans hovered well above 13%.
According to Moody’s, CRE prices are down 4.3% from a year ago and down about 43% from the peak in 2007.
The delinquency rate on loans packaged and sold in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose to a record 9.2% in February, according to a March 15 report by Moody’s.
Regional and local community banks have as much as 80% of their balance sheets tied up in commercial real estate, and very few other sources of significant fee income to offset CRE losses.
CRE once had an estimated national value of $6.5 trillion. Today it stands at an optimistic $3.5 trillion.
There are 1.8 million homes seriously delinquent, in the foreclosure process or REO that are not currently listed for sale.
There are about 2 million current negative equity loans that are more than 50% “upside down”.
Home prices are off 31.3% from the peak. The Composite 20 is only 0.7% above the May 2009 post-bubble bottom and will probably be at a new post-bubble low soon.

In the face of this data, mouthpieces for the Federal Reserve go before Congress and try to paint an optimistic picture. “While we expect significant ongoing CRE-related problems, it appears that worst-case scenarios are becoming increasingly unlikely,” Patrick Parkinson, the Federal Reserve’s director of banking supervision and regulation, told Congress. Parkinson said that since the beginning of 2008 through the third quarter of 2010, commercial banks had incurred almost $80 billion of losses from commercial real estate exposures. Banks are estimated to have taken roughly 40% to 50% of losses they will incur over this business cycle, he said.

The Federal Reserve will be forced by the Federal Courts to reveal the banks they have saved from failure since 2008 by funneling billions of practically interest free tax payer dollars into their hands. The Fed is expected to release this week documents related to discount window lending from August 2007 to March 2010, including the peak month of October 2008, when loans hit $111 billion. It will be revealed they kept alive hundreds of banks that should have died. Shockingly, the supposedly taxpayer protecting Dodd-Frank law exempts past discount window lending from an audit by the Government Accountability Office, that’s examining much of the central bank’s other crisis-era programs. That champion of the little people, Barney Frank, said such disclosures might have “a negative market effect. If people saw the data the next day, they come to the conclusion that the bank must be in trouble.” Openness and transparency are evidently grey areas for Mr. Frank. Despite the non-disclosures, free Fed bucks, accounting fraud and uninterested regulators, over 300 banks managed to go out of business in the last two years, essentially bankrupting the FDIC. Have no fear. The Treasury gave the FDIC an unlimited line of credit with your money.

It is fascinating that every Friday afternoon the FDIC announces approximately three bank failures. Steady as she goes. No panic. Just a slow trickle of failure. But the reality is much worse than the show. Despite the gimmicks of extending and pretending, there are 900 banks essentially insolvent sitting on the FDIC “Problem” list. This is after closing the 300 banks. There are at least a couple hundred billion of losses in the pipeline, to be funded by the American people/Chinese lenders. A critical thinking American might ask, if things are getting better, why does the number of troubled banks continue to rise week after week, month after month?

One year ago the website www.businessinsider.com listed the 10 major regional banks with the highest risk from commercial real estate loans. These 10 banks had $133 billion of commercial real estate loans on their books. Most, if not all, are still in business today. The fact is those real estate loans are worth 30% to 50% less than they are being carried on the books. A true valuation of these loans would put all 10 of these banks out of business. They are dead banks walking. In a world where transparency, honesty, and true free markets reigned supreme, these banks would pay for their poor risk taking choices. They would be liquidated and their assets would be sold off to banks that did not make horrific lending decisions. Failures would fail.

Bank	CRE Loans (bil.)	% of Tier 1 Capital
NY Community Bank	$22.0	915%
Wintrust Financial Corp.	$3.4	419%
M&T Bank	$20.8	378%
Synovus	$11.2	376%
Wilmington Trust	$4.0	369%
Marshall & Iisley	$13.8	283%
Zions Bancorporation	$13.4	253%
Regions Financial	$28.3	218%
UMB Bank	$1.3	156%
Comerica	$14.3	97%

How could anyone deny the world is back on track after examining the following chart?

It should warm your heart to know that Financial Profits have amazingly reached their pre-crash highs. All it took was the Federal Reserve taking $1.3 trillion of bad loans off their books, overstating the value of their remaining loans by 40%, borrowing money from the Fed at 0%, relying on the Bernanke Put so their trading operations could gamble without fear of losses, and lastly by pretending their future losses will be lower and relieving their loan loss reserves. The banking industry didn’t need to do any of that stodgy old school stuff like make loans to small businesses. Extending and pretending is much more profitable.

The big four of JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo should have undergone orderly bankruptcy liquidation in 2008. They took on a vast amount of leverage and a vast amount of risk. Their greedy bets went bad. In a true capitalist system, they would have failed. Instead, in our crony capitalist system, they were bailed out by taxpayers and continue to function as zombie banks pretending to be healthy. They reported profits of $34.4 billion in 2010. Every dime of these profits was generated through accounting entries that relieved their provisions for loan losses. These “brilliant” CEOs who virtually destroyed the worldwide financial system in 2008, looked into their crystal balls and decided their loan losses in the future would be dramatically lower. I’ll take the other side of that bet. I dug into their SEC filings to get the information in the chart below. Just the fact that Citicorp and Bank of America have still not filed their 10K reports after 3 months tells a story.

Bank	Source	CRE	Mortgages	Credit Card	Total Loans	Loss Reserve	% of Loans
JP Morgan	12/31 10K	$53,635	$174,211	$137,676	$692,927	$32,266	4.7%
Citicorp	9/30 10Q	$79,281	$209,678	$216,759	$654,311	$43,674	6.7%
Bank of America	9/30 10Q	$77,062	$394,007	$142,298	$933,910	$43,581	4.7%
Wells Fargo	12/31 10K	$129,783	$337,105	$22,375	$757,267	$23,022	3.0%

These four “Too Big To Fail” bastions of crony capitalism have $340 billion of commercial real estate loans on their books. That’s a lot of extending and pretending. Just properly valuing those loans at their true market value would wipe out most of their loan loss reserves. I wonder if Vikrim and his buddies have noticed that home prices have begun to plunge again. Deciding to not foreclose on home occupiers that haven’t made a mortgage payment in two years is not a long term strategy. These four banks have $1.1 billion of outstanding mortgage debt on their books. I wonder what a 20% further decline in home prices will do to these loans. Throw in another half a billion of credit card loans to Americans being hammered by soaring energy and food prices and you have a toxic mix of future losses. These banks are gonna need a bigger boat.

The game of extend and pretend at the expense of the American working middle class is growing old. When this game is over, Wall Street will be looking for another bailout. The American people will not fall for the lies again. Wall Street’s oppression reeks of greed and disgrace. They are liars and thieves. They have pillaged and stolen all that was left to steal. I will be surprised if they get out alive.

Well you are my accuser, now look in my face
Your opression reeks of your greed and disgrace
So one man has and another has not
How can you love what it is you have got
When you took it all from the weak hands of the poor?
Liars and thieves you know not what is in store

There will come a time I will look in your eye
You will pray to the God that you always denied
The I’ll go out back and I’ll get my gun
I’ll say, “You haven’t met me, I am the only son”

Dust Bowl Dance – Mumford & Sons

ADMINISTRATOR LOOKING FORWARD TO THE GOOD PARKING SPOT

Well, it looks like the Administrator has done it again. My timing is imeccable. Our beloved government agency, the EEOC, has expanded the definition of disabled under the ADA law to include people with diabetes. The new rules go into affect in May. The new expanded definition of disabled will only add 12 to 38 million new people to the exclusive club and add $60 million to $183 million of new annual costs for employers. Since that is a government estimate, multiply it by 10 to get an accurate figure.

I’m in heaven. With my recent diagnoses of diabetes, I’ve hit the jackpot. I’ll be applying for my handicap parking sticker. This way, I’ll get the good parking spot at McDonalds and Dunkin Donuts (no drive thru at the Harleysville store). I won’t have to illegally park in handicap spots anymore like George Costanza. I can’t wait to order my new free Hoveround. They are so cool.

And finally I won’t have feelings of guilt every day when I use the huge handicap stall at work. I love the roominess. And best of all, if they ever try to fire my fat ass from this place, I’ll sue them because of my handicap. God, I love this country.

New regulations to add millions to pool of those protected by Americans with Disabilities Act

By Sofia Resnick | 03.29.11 | 11:58 am

Come May, employers will be required to provide accommodations for a new range of issues and diseases that have recently been given the distinction of “disability” after an update to the Americans with Disabilities Act.

The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission last week published the guidelines as to how to define a disability under the latest version of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, which was amended in 2008 as the ADA Amendments Act.

The document published in the Federal Register includes the final revised ADA act and interpretative guidelines, which, according to an EEOC release, are ”designed to simplify the determination of who has a ‘disability’ and make it easier for people to establish that they are protected by the Americans with Disabilities Act.” The regulations go into effect May 24.

In the most current version of the act, “disability” is defined as a “physical or mental impairment that substantially limits one or more life activities of such individual.” In other words, a disability was always considered to be constantly “debilitating.” The new regulations maintain the ADA’s definition of disability, but major changes come from how the terms “impairment” and “life activities” are interpreted. With the new language, “impairment need not prevent or severely or significantly restrict performance of a major life activity to be considered a disability. Additionally, whether an impairment is a disability should be construed broadly, to the maximum extent allowable under the law.”

Impairments that are in remission or are episodic, such as cancer or epilepsy, can now be interpreted as “substantially restricting the performance of a life activity” when the condition is active.

Under the regulations, “major life activities” include “major bodily functions,” such as functions of the immune system, normal cell growth, and brain, neurological, and endocrine functions. The rules document clarifies that not every impairment will be considered a disability and gives clear examples, such as HIV infection, diabetes, epilepsy and bipolar disorder.

Formerly, the burden of proof was on the worker to prove he or she suffered from a condition that required certain accommodations; now it will be up to individual employers to make certain they have not overlooked any condition or disability that could be covered under the law.

A census estimate (PDF) from 2005 found that of all Americans, 16.5 percent of people aged 21 to 64 had some level of disability; 45.6 percent of this group was employed.

In its preliminary estimation of the effects of the amended ADA, the EEOC, predicted that the new regulations would increase the pool of those considered to be workers with disabilities by 160,000 people; but further analysis and input from academics and experts raised that estimation to between 12 million and 38.4 million new disabled workers.

The EEOC further estimates that the broadened definitions will lead to between 400,000 and 1.2 million new accommodations employers will be required to provide, which is estimated to cost between $60 million and $183 million annually. The commission notes that many of these accommodations will be low-cost, such as allowing breaks or making small modifications to office equipment.

“Just as the ADAAA [ADA Amendments Act] was the result of a considerable bipartisan effort by Congress, the final rule represents a concerted effort of EEOC Commissioners representing both parties to arrive at regulations that hold true to that bipartisan Congressional intent,” said EEOC Commissioner Constance S. Barker in a press statement. “I was pleased to have been able to vote in favor of the final rule.”

Read the full analysis and implications of the regulations here.

Law firm Seyfarth Shaw LLP provides a list of implications for employers, essentially suggesting new tactics for fighting lawsuits. These include:

“Defendants are far less likely to prevail in court by arguing that an individual is not disabled and therefore is not covered under the ADA and/or does not require accommodation. “
Now more than ever, employers must focus on reasonable accommodation, and on whether an individual with a physical or mental condition is otherwise qualified to perform essential job functions, with or without reasonable accommodation.”
“Lawyers defending ADA cases in court must, in most cases, wean themselves off arguing that the plaintiff is not disabled … the employer must typically focus its arguments on accommodation – it made accommodation, the plaintiff failed to request accommodation, the plaintiff declined accommodation, the plaintiff failed to participate meaningfully in the accommodation process, etc.”
“The class action epidemic that continues in most parts of the country will now likely expand further to encompass mass actions under ADAAA. Some such actions will be brought by the EEOC under pattern and practice theory. Others will be filed by plaintiffs seeking class certification under Rule 23. … The EEOC’s repudiation of that approach could well mean a rise in class cases, e.g., by numerous individuals with a particular impairment, or numerous individuals having various impairments – all of them now protected.”

SUPER RICH

It still amazes me that a MSM outlet allows Paul Farrell to write such revolutionary articles. I applaud him. He’s got a big set of cajones. His article is full of truth. I think George Carlin and Paul would have gotten along just great.

Tax the Super Rich now or face a revolution

Commentary: A ‘Super-Rich Delusion’ is leading us to ruin

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Yes, tax the Super Rich. Tax them now. Before the other 99% rise up, trigger a new American Revolution, a meltdown and the Great Depression 2.

Revolutions build over long periods — to critical mass, a flash point. Then they ignite suddenly, unpredictably. Like Egypt, started on a young Google executive’s Facebook page. Then it goes viral, raging uncontrollably. Can’t be stopped. Here in America the set-up is our nation’s pervasive “Super-Rich Delusion.”

We know the Super Rich don’t care. Not about you. Nor the American public. They can’t see. Can’t hear. Stay trapped in their Forbes-400 bubble. An echo chamber that isolates them. They see the public as faceless workers, customers, taxpayers. See GOP power on the ascent. Reaganomics is back. Unions on the run. Clueless masses are easily manipulated.

Even Obama is secretly working with the GOP, will never touch his Super Rich donors. Yes, the Super-Rich Delusion is that powerful, infecting all America.

Here’s how one savvy insider who knows described this Super-Rich Delusion: “The top 1% live privileged lives, aren’t worried about much. Families vacation at the best resorts. Their big concerns are finding the best Pilates teacher, best masseuse, best surgeons, best private schools. They aren’t concerned with the underlying deterioration of America or the world, except in the abstract, because they aren’t directly affected by it. That’s not to say they aren’t sympathetic, aware, or don’t talk about the issues you bring up. They are largely concerned with protecting and enhancing their socio-economic positions, ensuring their families live well. And nothing you write about will change things.”

Warning, in 2011 that attitude is delusional, deadly, yet pervasive in America.

Super Rich replaying “Great Gatsby” age, won’t learn till it’s too late

Our top 1% honestly believe they’re immune, protected from the unintended consequences of beating down average Americans for three decades with the free-market, trickle-down Reaganomics doctrines that made them Super Rich.

They honestly believe those same doctrines will protect them in the next depression. Why? Because they have megabucks stashed away. Provisions for the long haul. Live in gated compounds with mercenaries guarding them.

They believe they’ll continue living just fine in a depression. But you won’t. Nor will your retirement. Neither will the rest of America. And still the Super Rich don’t care, “except in the abstract, because they aren’t directly affected.”

Warning: The Super-Rich Delusion has pushed us to the edge of a great precipice: Remember the Roaring Twenties? The Crash of 1929? Great Depression? Just days before the crash one leading economist, Irving Fisher, predicted that stocks had “reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”

Yes, he was trapped in the “Great Gatsby Syndrome,” an earlier version of today’s Super-Rich Delusion. It was so blinding in 1929 that the president, Wall Street, all America were sucked in … until the critical mass hit a mysterious flash point, triggering the crash.

Yes, we’re reliving that past — never learn, can’t hear. And oddly it’s not just the GOP’s overreach, the endlessly compromising Obama, too-greedy-to-fail Wall Street banksters, U.S. Chamber of Commerce billionaires and arrogant Forbes 400. America’s entire political, financial and economic psyche is infected, as if our DNA has been rewired.

The Collective American Brain is trapped in this Super-Rich Delusion, replaying the run-up to the ’29 Crash.

Nobody predicted 2011 revolutions in the oil-rich Arab world either

Warning: Mubarak, Gaddafi, Ali, Assad, even the Saudis also lived in the Super-Rich Delusion. Have for a long time. Were vulnerable. Ripe for a revolution. They, too, honestly believed they were divinely protected, chosen for great earthly wealth, enjoyed great armies.

Then, suddenly, out of the blue, a new “educated, unemployed and frustrated” generation turned on them, is now rebelling, demanding their share of economic benefits, opportunities, triggering revolutions, seeking retribution.

Still, you don’t believe there’s a depression ahead here in America? The third great market crash of the 21st century? A new economic revolution about to blow up in our faces? No, you don’t believe, can’t believe … you, me, we are all infected by the Super-Rich Delusion, just as Americans were in the Roaring Twenties.

Check the stats folks: The last time America’s wealth gap between the Super Rich and the other 99% was this big was just before the 1929 Crash and the Great Depression.

You can’t remember? Or you won’t? America is trapped in “terminal denial,” a setup for failure. Too many still live in the false hope of this Super-Rich Delusion. Do you believe government stats hyping a recovery? Believe Wall Street’s nonsense about a new bull market ahead? Believe Exxon-Mobile’s misleading ads about energy stocks. Believe Bill Gross’ when he says dump Treasurys, and buy his emerging country bonds? Dream on.

Start preparing for the third meltdown of the 21st Century, and depression

Denial and lies. Remember, 93% of what you hear about markets, finance and the economy are guesses, wishful thinking and lies intended to manipulate you into making decisions that suck money from your pockets into Wall Street. They get rich telling lies about securities. They hate any SEC fiduciary rules forcing them to tell the truth.

But the fact is, on an inflation-adjusted basis, Wall Street lost 20% of your retirement money in the decade from 2000 to 2010, over $10 trillion. And “Irrational Exuberance’s” Robert Shiller warns of a third meltdown coming. You better start preparing now.

Before you start betting any more at Wall Street’s rigged casinos, think long and hard about these six megatoxins lurking in America’s Super-Rich Delusion, a mind-altering pandemic infecting our nation’s leadership in Washington, Corporate America and Wall Street … but also “trickling down,” infecting many Americans. Listen:

1. Warning: Super Rich want tax cuts, creating youth unemployment

Bloomberg warns: “The Kids Are Not Alright.” Worldwide, youth unemployment is fueling the revolution. In a New York Times column, Matthew Klein, a 24-year-old Council on Foreign Relations researcher, draws a parallel between the 25% unemployment among Egypt’s young revolutionaries and the 21% for young American workers: “The young will bear the brunt of the pain” as governments rebalance budgets. Taxes on workers will be raised and spending on education will be cut while mortgage subsidies and entitlements for the elderly are untouchable,” as will tax cuts for the rich. Opportunities lost. “How much longer until the rest of the rich world” explodes like Egypt?

2. Warning: rich get richer on commodity prices, poor get angrier

USA Today’s John Waggoner warns: “Soaring food prices send millions into poverty, hunger: Corn up 52% in 12 months. Sugar 60%. Soybeans 41%. Wheat 24%. For 44 million the “rise in food prices means a descent into extreme poverty and hunger, warns the World Bank.” Many causes: Speculators. Soaring oil prices. Trade policies. Population explosion. But altogether they expose “the underlying inequalities and issues related to the standard of living that boil beneath the surface,” says a Pimco manager.

3. Warning: Global poor ticking time bomb targeting Super Rich

A Time special report, “Poor vs. Rich: A New Global Conflict” warned that a “conflict between two worlds — one rich, one poor — is developing, and the battlefield is the globe itself.” Just 25 developed nations of 750 million citizens consume most of the world’s resources, produce most of its manufactured goods and enjoy history’s highest standard of living.” But they’re now facing 100 underdeveloped poor nations with 2 billion people with hundreds of millions living in poverty all demanding “an ever larger share of that wealth.” Think Egypt. British leader calls this a “time bomb for the human race.”

4. Warning: Next revolution coming across ‘Third World America’

We are ripe for one: In “Third World America” Arianna Huffington warns: “Washington rushed to the rescue of Wall Street but forgot about Main Street … One in five Americans unemployed or underemployed. One in nine families unable to make the minimum payment on their credit cards. One in eight mortgages in default or foreclosure. One in eight Americans on food stamps. Upward mobility has always been at the center of the American Dream … that promise has been broken… The American Dream is becoming a nightmare.” Soon it will implode. a meltdown, revolution, depression.

5. Warning: Super Rich must be detoxed of their greed addiction

In “Free Lunch: How the Wealthiest Americans Enrich Themselves at Government Expense (And Stick You With the Bill),” David Cay Johnston, warns that the rich are like addicts, and to “the addicted, money is like cocaine, too much is never enough.” A few years ago an elite 300,000 Americans in “the top tenth of 1% of income had nearly as much income as all 150 million Americans who make up the economic lower half of our population.” The Super Rich Delusion is an addiction that requires a painful detox.

6. Warning: Politicians infected by Super-Rich Delusion, revolution

In “Washington’s Suicide Pact,” Newsweek’s Ezra Klein warns: “Congress is careening toward the worst of all worlds: massive job losses and an exploding deficit.” How bad? As many as 700,000 more jobs lost, says Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi. What a twist: Remember vice president Dick Cheney said “deficits don’t matter.” Today the GOP is so blinded by its obsession to destroy Obama’s presidency, deficits are now the only thing they say matters.

Wake up folks. The Super-Rich Delusion is destroying the American Dream for the rest of us. The Super Rich don’t care about you. They’re already stockpiling for the economic time bomb dead ahead. Don’t say you weren’t warned. Time for you to plan ahead for the coming revolution, for another depression.

RE’s Daily Rant- 3/27/2011

On the Consequences of Napalm Contests
Daily Rant Archive 2/11/11, 2/12/11, 2/14/11, 2/15/11, 2/17/11, 2/18/11, 2/19/11, 2/20/11, 2/21/11, 2/23/11, 2/25/11, 2/27/11, 2/28/11, 3/2/11, 3/3/11, 3/5/11, 3/7/11, 3/8/2011, 3/10/11, 3/12/11, 3/15/11, 3/17/11, 3/18/11,3/19/11, 3/20/2011, 3/24/11, 3/25/11	Top Links Reverse Engineering Automatic Earth Zero Hedge Economic Undertow Of Two Minds
Rant Lite Today’s rant is Tin Foil speculation on the Existence of God.		Quote of the Day Luk 21:10Then He said to them, “Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. Luk 21:11“And there will be great earthquakes in various places, and famines and pestilences; and there will be fearful sights and great signs from heaven.

A Tale of Two Depressions

As the Great Depression progressed onward, the early collapse in RE prices made many Banks insolvent, which then precipitated the Stock Market Crash of 1929.

Geological and Cosmological Event Watch Thread

Not sure if there is really a significant increase in geologic events right now, but at least reading the MSM over the last year it appears to me that there has been an increase in frequency and in amplitude.

Other Shoes and the Uselessness Premium

“Creating fuel production in a failed- state Libya is beyond the grasp of the EU’s and United States’ unconventional ‘assets’. Blatant military intervention would be opposed by Russia, China and no doubt the other oil- producing autocracies.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xXBAoxHYpM&feature=related

Recent “Quitting Events” related to the vitriolic and hateful Napalm that passes for debate here on TBP have caused me to put on hold yet another Daily Rant I was more than half finished with on the nature of money. The meta-topic of how the members here behave is more immediately important in terms of determining how successful we will be with carrying the message of how the Financial Collapse and the effects of Peak Oil will transform our culture, however you personally think that transition will turn out. I know that is Jim Quinn’s primary purpose here in administering this forum, he has told me so several times, and it is my primary purpose in writing as well. We don’t see all the outcomes precisely the same way, but we both do want to warn people that “Something Wicked this Way Comes”.

Predating the financial collapse of Bear Stearns, I participated on and administered message boards on other topics, and like all message boards they were subject to differing levels of Napalm. Napalm can be subtle or it can be blatant, but in all cases it is Ad Hom argument. It attacks the writer rather than addresses the ideas being presented. I will write examples of both here.

First, subtle Napalm:

“You clearly have not researched this topic well enough and do not understand the graphs I presented.”

This sentence isn’t addressing anything the person actually wrote, it’s merely attacking his intelligence. Its going to anger the person it is directed at, and he is likely to scale up the napalm himself in his next response.

Next, blatant Napalm:

“You are a fucking moron. Your wife is a goddamn slut who sucks my 11.5” Smokestack. You Eat Shit.”

This form of Napalm doesn’t just attack the person, it takes the debate completely off topic into sexual innuendo and scatology, two forms of imagery that evoke emotional responses in anybody who reads them. Distilled down, those 3 sentences represent 90% of everything Smokey ever wrote on TBP.

Now, like JimQ, I never censored any Napalm on my message boards. In order to SQUASH the Napalm artists who joined my boards, I would just out-napalm them. I would get positively mean and vicious to do so. Generally I don’t use sexual innuendo or scatology to do it, I either use Comedy to ridicule the opponent or I draw from the Chattaqua School of Fire and Brimstone preaching. After absorbing trash from LLPOH and Smokey for a few weeks a while back, I got really pissed off and LET IT GO.

Room gets suddenly still and when you’d almost bet
You could hear yourself sweat – he walks in
Eyes black as coal and when he lifts his face
Every ear in the place is on him
Startin’ soft and slow-ow, like a small earthquake
And when he lets go-o, half the valley shakes

I Damned to Hell LLPOH in what is generally regarded as one of the most hateful posts ever made on these pages. At least that is how Stucky characterized it at the time. On my own boards, this was pretty effective, but they were much smaller boards than this one is and I never had anyone turn up on the boards so insistent on perpetuating Napalm contests as Smokey is/was.

For a while here, I engaged both Smokey and LLPOH in Napalm contests, but neither one was going to quit and it was making it very difficult for me to continue my primary goal, which is to inform and to analyze the issues at hand from my POV. When I reformatted to the Daily Rants, I decided as part of that to stop responding to any napalm in them, whether the Napalm came as the Subtle or the Blatant varieties. It hasn’t entirely stopped the Napalm in the Rants, but there is quite a bit less of it now than there was before.

In the recent Napalm Contest between Stuck and Smokey, the emotions ran so high as to instigate a “Quitting Event”. Quitting Events happen when people on the board become so disgusted by what is going on that they no longer want to participate on the board. Its not JUST the people involved in the Napalm Contest either, there is Collateral Damage done in terms of Lurker Readers who stop reading the board because of these contests. I had a few Quitting Events happen on my boards, but again not to the scale you see on a board this size.

Now, in the aftermath of this event, Stuck has returned to the board and Apologized to Smokey, which is a pretty impressive thing to do since the kind of Napalm Smokey was using to taunt Stuck was of the most visceral and personal kind. He sensed a weakness in Stuck because of aspects of his personal life he had written about here, and used them to make Stuck feel even worse than he otherwise does about the situation. In the world of Napalm, this is a “Low Blow”. Hitting below the belt. But of course a true Napalm Artist respects NO Rules at all, because there are NO RULES in a Knife Fight. I did find it interesting that Smokey himself quit in the aftermath of this, which shows that Smokey has a conscience, or at least an inability to face the consequences of his actions, which is that everyone on the board was pissed off at him for causing Stuck to quit.

There was also something of a change in Smokey recently, the fact he came into my Existential thread and debated it free of his usual napalm was rather odd. It did not fit in with the persona he was pursuing here at all. Unless someone admits to outside circumstances impacting on them, you cannot know for sure why their behaviors will change in writing on these pages. You can speculate on it, you can observe the effects, but you cannot really know the underlying cause. Stuck has been fairly open about the problems his son is facing, so we can understand his reactions and behaviors in light of that, but Smokey’s behaviors are more opaque.

As we move forward here from this, I am going to offer a few words of advice. First, I never believe in Censorship under any circumstances, so to Jim Quinn my advice is to Carry On as he has, letting the membership post as they will, whatever the outcome of that is. I am even sorry that Jim chose to delete both DP and Hugh Betchya. However, it is his board, so he can do that if he so chooses.

The REAL POWER though to control the Napalm Artists is not in the hands of the CHIEF, it is in the hands of the TRIBE. The way you control people as a group who will not maintain community standards is by SHUNNING them. Do not respond to Napalm Artists, pay no attention to them. In the aftermath of Smokey quitting, Colma Rising has attempted to “assume the mantle” of the board’s chief flamethrower. If you buy into that shit, he will continue onward. If you ignore it, he may continue onward if he is a persistent sort of fellow, but he won’t get any satisfaction from it. If/when Smokey returns and pursues this paradigm again, I suggest the same tactic. He is a bright enough guy, he doesn’t really need to write that sort of shit to make point. I certainly won’t respond to any Napalm they pitch, although if like Smokey did in the Existential thread he writes good stuff to topic, I’ll treat them like any other good debater and welcome the input. Smokey is a smart fellow clearly, but he took on a certain persona here which overall was not real productive. Why he did that is unclear, and probably will remain unclear unless he returns.

What ARE our Community Values? Is it really that important to us to value Napalm Artistry just because it can be creative and sometimes even funny? Or is the Value of this board to INFORM on the important topics of our time? I believe the latter is the important Value of this board, and if we expect it to be successful, being a good source of information and opinion on these topics, this is what we must strive for.

For each of the Writers here, whether you are a Contributor or just respond in the Comments, I have two suggestions. First is to watch your own writing carefully for Subtle Napalm. Its often an unconscious thing to make an Ad Hom attack that will cause someone else to escalate up in napalm. Try to respond only to the ideas, rather than the author who writes them. I get a lot of Napalm pitched my way simply because it comes off the keyboard of RE. Even when I write stuff most of you will agree with, I get responses like “Much as it PAINS me to do so, I have to agree with RE here.” That is a subtle form of Napalm of course. You take the opportunity to say that even though you think what I wrote is correct, you STILL think I am an asshole. See how easy it is to write Napalm?

The second suggestion is to SHUN the Napalm Artist. Don’t perpetuate the contests by responding with ever increasing levels of Napalm. Nobody “wins”, everybody LOSES. Even if you enjoy these exercises in creative scatology and sexual innuendo, it’s a fucking waste of time and makes the board unreadable for most people. It’s a major turn-off for the average reader. If you support this stuff, you are marginalizing the board as an effective communication medium.

As for me, here in the Daily Rants I will continue to observe and analyze the collapse, and respond to anyone who makes a good argument. I will also continue to Troll other threads, and I no doubt will use both logical argument and my gift for comedy to make fun of the IDEAS other people write, but I will try very hard not to attack ad hom. Be your OWN censor. As far as challenging me goes, I welcome all challengers who will write to topic. TAKE ME ON. It is what I live for as an Internet Debater of the topics of our time. I will respect you as long as you respect me.

LLPOH brings up a point here in the Self-Censorship debate, which is that in addition to censoring the type of prose you write, you should also self-censor on its length. He prevails upon me to make my posts SHORTER. Does he prevail on Jim to make his posts shorter? No he does not, because he mostly agrees with what Jim writes. Jim’s stuff is just as long as mine is, he just doesn’t write quite so often as I do at such length. Quality is not an issue here, merely length and frequency. Length in and of itelf is not a bad thing, its only bad if you pursue ad hom in the diatribe, which I do not do. When I write LONG, I write to topic. When I Napalm in response to napalm thrown my direction, its in the Comments, not in the OP. I do not see a reason to make my articles shorter, I am not attacking anyone by having diarheah of the keyboard. LOL. My means of delivering my message is to write at length and exhaustively. It is not Napalm to do that.

Please realize one very important TRUTH if you do take me on, which is that I will NEVER quit, and I will write long and in detail responding to what you write if I do not agree with it. I have a Fast Gun here under my fingertips on this Keyboard, I will use this gift, and I will spit the bullets out faster than you can, or anyone else. In fact I will write it faster than ALL the anybody elses will together. Live with it. NOBODY can keep up with the pace I write at, I think I have proved that one beyond a shadow of a doubt. I run the Marathon on the keyboard against a few sprinters, I’ll grind you to DUST over the whole course of the race. Unless you are the kind of Zealot I am and are as smart as I am, you will be crushed over time. Are you that far up the end of the Bell Curve of Smart People and Ideological Zealots? I have not yet run into someone who can compete on this playing field. LLPOH thinks he can, and I welcome his challenge. Fair and Square, my arguments of IDEAS against his, I am all for it. I will match my intellect up against his anytime, it’s a fun thing for me to do against another smart guy. Think of it like John McEnroe against Bjorn Borg at the US Open. Clearly,I am the Bad Boy Johnny Mac here of course. LOL. Regardless of being a bad boy though, I am a better Tennis Player than LLPOH is. He has more MONEY than I do, but elsewise he has little to defend himself. He isn’t as smart as I am, and he cannot keyboard so fast as I can. He will eventually lose as result. (OK, I admit to doing some TAUNTING here. This still IS TBP after all. LOL)

LLPOH writes his “Short Stories” as means to pontificate on his perspective. All well and good there. I will challenge his Short Stories when I think they represent WRONG ideas, but that is not Napalm. I’m not attacking LLPOH, merely what he is trying to communicate as a philosophy with his short stories. I welcome him to challenge my ideas as well in any of my Daily Rants. This is not Napalm, as long as it is the IDEAS that are being attacked, not the WRITER of those ideas. Please Place Your Bets here on TBP, LLPOH vs RE, who do you think will be proved correct in the long term? Side with the Unrepentant Capitalist or the Repentant Tribalist, your choice. I KNOW my Sins, I admit them and hope for forgiveness in the Great Beyond. LLPOH does NOT Repent, this is his CHOICE, and if you side with him your choice as well. We ALL will have to pick our sides here in the maelstrom before us now, this is only the first of many choices you will have before you, but in that choice you reveal the core of what you believe in. Principles you cannot abandon without giving up how you define your understanding of the world.

Nobody DIES in these Gunfights in Cyberspace, so they will continue onward for so long as TBP lights up the Internet. Who “wins” here when we engage in good debate? EVERYBODY WINS. Good debate elucidates the underlying ideas and principles so everyone who reads grasps a better understanding of them. I learn things all the time from these debates, and my ideas evolve as a result of it. If you read for comprehension, your ideas will evolve as well. The TRUTH is that we must ALL evolve if we are to find a Better Tomorrow, although to be sure, its not going to come in our lifetimes.

See You on the Other Side.

DON’T PULL THAT STRING

OK. This one is hard to believe. But true stories are better than fiction. Three weeks ago I posted a story about my dumbass cat and the string hanging out of her ass. http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=12124

I thought it was crime that I had to pay $220 to Harleysville Veterinary Hospital so they could keep her for two days until she shit the string out. The nice mild mannered veterinarian stayed all weekend with our cat and kept Avalon up to date on the string’s progress. The nice veterinarian’s name was David Rapoport. He evidently loves dogs and cats, but isn’t a big fan of babies. I opened my local newspaper this morning to the headline below.

Upper Gwynedd veterinarian David Rapoport charged in murder of woman and unborn child

A married veterinarian furious over his mistress’ pregnancy shot the woman three times before dumping her body in a nature preserve, authorities said Tuesday.

Dr. David A. Rapoport of the 1200 block of Brownstown Court, Upper Gwynedd, is being held without bail on charges of criminal homicide and criminal homicide of an unborn child.

Rapoport, a married veterinarian who worked at the Harleysville Veterinary Hospital, is accused of fatally shooting Jennifer L. Snyder, a 27-year-old Lower Macungie Township woman, who was 10 to 12 weeks pregnant with his child, according to the Lehigh County District Attorney’s office.

State police arrested Rapoport, 30, in last week’s shooting death of Snyder, whose body was discovered Friday in a wooded ravine in the Trexler Nature Preserve in North Whitehall Township, near Allentown.

Bullet casings from the scene matched a gun that officers recovered from Rapoport’s vehicle, Lehigh County District Attorney James Martin said.

Authorities suspect that Rapoport, 30, killed Snyder because he was angry about the pregnancy. Snyder had been a technician at a Lower Macungie veterinary hospital.

Police say Snyder was last seen Wednesday and failed to show up for a doctor’s appointment Thursday morning.

State police took Rapoport into custody before 10 a.m. Tuesday “outside his father’s home in Montgomery County,” according to Lehigh County officials, and was arraigned by District Judge Jacob Hammond of Allentown.

He did not have an attorney, court officials said.

Snyder’s body was found a short distance from where her vehicle was discovered on Thursday while police were responding to a call of a suspicious vehicle in a parking lot on Independence Drive in North Whitehall.

Police said that the vehicle, which was registered to Snyder, had a shattered passenger side window and that there was blood and two spent shell casings inside the vehicle.

Lehigh County Coroner Scott Grimm determined that Snyder had been shot once in the back and twice in the head.

Police said that an investigation interview with Rapoport Thursday revealed that he and Snyder had been dating.

The investigation turned up a 9mm Glock semiautomatic pistol belonging to Rapoport, according to authorities. Police ballistics tests determined that the discharged casings found in Snyder’s vehicle and at the scene where her body was found matched the gun.

According to court documents, police believe Rapoport killed Snyder on Wednesday, then dumped her blood-soaked car behind a professional building about two miles from where the woman’s body was found doused in bleach and wrapped in a blanket and trash bags bound with duct tape.

Surveillance video from the building appears to show Rapoport getting out of Snyder’s vehicle on Wednesday afternoon and tossing a bottle of bleach into the trash nearby, police said.

Blood-spattered duct tape and a handgun were recovered from Rapoport’s vehicle, according to police.

When questioned by police, Rapoport initially denied any recent contact with Snyder, but later acknowledged having a relationship with her and not wanting his wife to know about it.

Snyder’s roommate said the victim left her apartment in Lower Macungie on Wednesday and was planning to meet Rapoport.

She wasn’t seen after that and was reported missing after she failed to show up for an obstetrician appointment Thursday morning. An autopsy determined she was pregnant with a boy.

According to court documents, Rapoport is scheduled for a preliminary hearing at 10:30 a.m. March 29 at the Lehigh County Courthouse in Allentown.

Martin said it was too early to say if he would seek the death penalty in the case.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

This photo was taken from Harleysville Veterinary Hospital’s website.

I THINK THE KITTY DID IT.

LLPOH’s SHORT Story: Another Tale of Woe

Some twenty plus years ago I came to work for a company we will call AJAX. This company was founded in the 1930’s, and remained in family hands until the 1980’s, when the CEO bought it from the founder. In addition to its primary business of industrial supplies sales, the company manufactured a range of commercial widgets. The industrial supply side of the business was the dominant part of the business and represented in excess of 90% of its sales and profits. Manufacturing widgets was a sideline.

One large multinational organization dominated the US widget business. The multinational decided it was time to modernize its manufacturing facilities world-wide and built two identical plants – one in the US and one overseas. These plants were identical in every way – same size facility, same equipment, etc. Foreign markets would be supplied by the overseas plant and local markets by the US plant. The company quickly found – much to its disgust – that the local plant produced only half as many widgets per man-hour as their overseas plant, despite being identical. Additionally, local labor costs were dramatically higher. The reason for this was simple – the new local plant was built at the same site as the previous plant, and used the same employees – highly unionized and militant employees – who refused to run the new equipment beyond the capacity of the old plant. When the multinational realized that they could import widgets cheaper than they could make them locally, they closed the local plant entirely and built a second new plant overseas to supply the US market. Goodbye jobs, hello imports, thank you militant union.

The owner and CEO of AJAX noted the closure of the plant with interest – and determined there was an opportunity. He decided that he could take over the entire US market for widgets, by building a new widget plant in a non-union part of the country, and thus saving the not insignificant transport costs his competitor incurred. He believed AJAX could dominate the market on price and by promoting the product as local made.

The owner put together a business proposal for building the new plant, and went to the banks for the $25 million required to build the plant. The bank was suitably impressed – after all the business was long-established and profitable, and further the CEO/owner was also personally guaranteeing the loan via his personal wealth of some $10 -15 million.

The CEO immediately hired a flash young manager to manage the new facility, an experienced engineer to design and commission the facility, a new accountant to account for all the expenditure, and he also hired the most experienced sales manager of widgets in the country (indeed he hired the only experienced sales manager in the country – the sales manager from the competitor that moved overseas). Of course there were a range of other personnel hired as well – planners, supervisors, engineers, etc.

The story now jumps approximately two years forward. The plant has been built, and has largely been commissioned. Unfortunately, it is running at only about 10% of design capacity. The plant is fully staffed, and is bleeding money by the hundreds of thousands of dollars per month. The initial bank loan has blown out to over $35 million, and the parent company is going broke owing to the ever increasing losses and inability to fund the interest bill. The bank is desperate to try to recover some of their money, as the plant is virtually worthless in its current state, and the only really security they have is the CEO’s personal assets. They demand that a new manager be brought in to run the plant. And that is where I come in.

The bank recruited me to take charge of the plant, but allowed the CEO/owner to remain in place, and had me report to him. This would prove to be a terrible mistake.

All manufacturing and engineering personnel reported to me, including the previous young plant manager. I quickly discovered that this flamboyant young manager had been using huge slabs of company resources to assist him in building his new house. This was well known among his employees, but as they worked for him, no one said anything. As the CEO was located in another city, he did not know it was happening – although he surely should have known. I summarily dismissed this young manager, and suggested he be charged for various crimes. The bank and the CEO opted not to do so, for fear of negative publicity. I do not understand that reasoning, but it was not my call. This young manager, to my understanding, never again succeeded in resurrecting his career, lost his partially built new house, and disappeared from sight.

Every three months we undertook a complete physical count of inventory. I was in charge of this inventory count. I would oversee the count, and send it to the accountant for pricing and summation. The accountant would send it back to me for final verification. I completed the first count, and received back the summary for verification. There I caught a $1 million dollar discrepancy – the accountant had keyed in 10,000 widgets when there were in fact only 1,000. I duly documented the discrepancy, and notified the accountant both in writing and verbally of the discrepancy – after all, a $1 million discrepancy was nothing to ignore. Three months later we undertook the same process. I did the count, the accountant did the summary, I verified the count was accurate – and sent it back. I immediately received a call from my panicked CEO – the count was off $1 million, and he wanted to know how I had lost a million dollars of stock. It took me about 2 nanoseconds to realize that the accountant had screwed the pooch – and that despite my best efforts, he had not fixed his mistake. The CEO went very quiet at my explanation, and I could sense his fear (not unexpected, given his personal fortune was hanging by a thread). The idiot accountant was never again heard from, and I understand his career in accounting was over from that moment.

The CEO made a series of catastrophic errors, each leading him ever closer to his doom:
1) The CEO made the fateful decision to abandon his core business of industrial supplies and enter manufacturing on a large scale. He had no experience in manufacturing. He then made a series of errors in hiring the wrong personnel, and of letting overheads get away from him, costing some millions of dollars.

2) The CEO, at the age of 55, guaranteed the $25 million loan (which then grew substantially) with his substantial personal wealth.( I and my partner never personally guarantee anything. We are too old to recover should anything go wrong.) This was a fatal mistake for the poor old CEO.

3) The CEO opted to interfere in my daily handling of resurrecting the business. This was somewhat understandable, as he could see his personal fortune disappearing, but it was a terrible mistake. There were two incidents where his interference cost him dearly. I had developed a spread sheet for ordering parts – a very basic MRP system that was not very pretty but was effective. The CEO saw this spread sheet, and determined that his system was better (i.e. prettier), and took upon himself the task of ordering 1) the high dollar imported products we needed in widget manufacture, and 2) the order of the high dollar specialty steel we required. Upon receiving the containers of imported product, we discovered he had ordered the wrong parts – some $500,000 of wrong imported parts, that were, of course, non-returnable. Upon receiving the steel, we discovered he had ordered the wrong steel – again $500,000 of steel that could not be returned. In a time of crisis, the CEO blew $1 million dollars. The bank, of course, was not amused. He decided it was best to leave me to do the ordering in the future.

These errors, unbelievably, were not terminal, and were in fact recoverable. I managed, over the course of a few months, to get the plant fully operational. In fact, if the interest on the bank loan was ignored, the plant was making a modest to reasonable profit, and the future looked pretty good. Unfortunately, the CEO had made one more error that had yet to come to light.

When the plant was fully commissioned and up and running, the CEO, the sales manager, the bank and myself sat down to discuss the next step. The plant was fully operational, and needed to be filled with orders. The CEO turned to the sales manager and said, “Sales manager, go forth and sell, and bring in orders for 1 million widgets, as that is the plant capacity”. The sales manager sat there and blinked, and was quiet. Finally the sales manager spoke – he said “The entire US market for widgets is only 200,000 per year.” This was a fateful comment indeed.

It seems that the CEO had used the figure of 1 million widgets per year in his business plan to the bank. He had never confirmed these numbers with anyone, and no one knows how he came by these numbers. The bank accepted this information (heads rolled at the bank over this), and loaned $25 million (and expanding to $35 million over time) based on these fictitious numbers. The sales manager was not with the company when the figures were created. Nonetheless, he knew that the numbers in the business plan were incorrect, but decided not to tell anyone, as to do so would likely have meant losing his job. He was over 60 years old, and his entire career had been spent selling widgets, and he believed he could not get any other work, and so he kept quiet until he could no longer do so. He was unethical in the extreme.

So, in the end, the CEO went bankrupt and lost his company and his wealth owing to his mistakes and his personal guarantee of the loan. His wife of many years left him (it seems to be a common theme). I have heard little of him since.

The sales manager lost his job owing to failing in his fiduciary duties. He disappeared from sight.

The bank took ownership of the business, and eventually sold it for a fraction of the monies owed. It was recapitalized at a value, including the industrial supplies arm, of approximately $15 million, and generated a reasonable profit at that valuation. The bank in the end lost about $10 million. The 100 or so manufacturing employees got to keep their jobs, which was a great result. I moved along to the next stricken company shortly thereafter, having accomplished my goal of saving the plant.

In this tale there is arrogance aplenty, there is unethical and criminal behaviour, and there is sheer incompetence and stupidity. But when I think about this story, I keep coming back to something I have long believed – that there are simply very few people out there who are capable of effectively running complex organizations – it takes a lot of skill, experience (both diverse and in-depth), and talent. There are a great many people who are incompetent and a great many more that simply do not care.

As a nation, we are an incredibly complex entity. We rely on politicians, for the most part, for leadership. These politicians are frequently life-long politicians or academics, with little or no real-world experience, and in many times they have entered the family business of politics (think Bush and Kennedy and Paul). And yet we rely on them to formulate and implement solutions to very complex solutions. For the most part, they simply are not up to the task – they do not have the requisite experience or skill. People with the appropriate skills and experience, as rare as they are, tend to avoid politics like the plague.

And so I despair when I consider the future – who will lead the people? I am convinced that politicians have insufficient skill, experience, and perhaps most importantly, the will to do what needs to be done. The American people show no inclination, on the whole, to reject the politicians we have for those we should have. So the grave question remains – who will save the country in the time of coming crisis?

LAND OF THE SETTING SUN

The linear thinkers that dominate the mainstream media and the halls of power in Washington D.C. are assessing the series of disasters in Japan without connecting the dots of history. Their ideological desire to convince people that things will go back to normal in short order flies in the face of the facts. It makes me wonder whether these supposed thought leaders lack true intelligence or whether their ideological biases convince them to lie. At the end of the day it comes down to wealth, power and control. If those in power were to tell the truth about the true consequences of demographics, debt, disasters, and devaluation, their subjects would revolt and toss them out. Before the multiple disasters struck Japan last week, the sun was already setting on this empire. The recent tragic events will accelerate that descent.

Japanese Beetle Meet Windshield

Smart financial minds have been expecting a Japanese economic tsunami for the last few years. John Mauldin described Japan’s predicament in early 2010:

“I refer to Japan as a bug in search of a windshield. I am not so sure about the timing, however, as the economic and fiscal insanity that is Japan may be able to go on for longer than many think possible. But to me it is not a question of whether there will be a crisis, but when there will be one. This year? 2011? 2012? I doubt Japan makes it to the middle of the decade with a very serious and sad day of reckoning.

The downside to the continuation of running massive deficits is that when the break does come, it will be all the more painful and difficult to deal with as the debt mounts. If there is an upside, it is for the rest of the world to see what can happen to a developed country like Japan when massive deficits are allowed to pile up one after another. It will be a morality play writ large upon the walls, which cannot be dismissed.”

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard expected a 9.0 debt earthquake to strike Japan in 2010:

“Weak sovereigns will buckle. The shocker will be Japan, our Weimar-in-waiting. This is the year when Tokyo finds it can no longer borrow at 1% from a captive bond market, and when it must foot the bill for all those fiscal packages that seemed such a good idea at the time. Every auction of JGBs will be a news event as the public debt punches above 225% of GDP. Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii will become as familiar as a rock star.

Once the dam breaks, debt service costs will tear the budget to pieces. The Bank of Japan will pull the emergency lever on QE. The country will flip from deflation to incipient hyperinflation. The yen will fall out of bed, outdoing China’s yuan in the beggar-thy-neighbor race to the bottom.”

Mr. Pritchard was either wrong or early, depending upon your point of view.

JAPAN INTEREST RATES

Japan can still borrow for 10 years at 1%. Despite the highest government debt as a percentage of GDP on the planet at 225%, Japan has not felt the wrath of the bond vigilantes. Not only did the Yen not fall out of bed, but it soared to a post-war high against the USD last week after the earthquake/tsunami. Investors drove the value of the yen higher, anticipating a huge rebuilding program in Japan. Japanese financial institutions would need to convert foreign assets into yen to pay for damage claims and construction expenses, a process that would strengthen the currency. In anticipation, investors piled into yen, helping drive up its value. Central banks across the globe intervened and weakened the currency, for the time being. When the world comes to its senses, the Yen will weaken on its own.

Debt & Demographics

Japan is a one trick pony that just broke two legs and is waiting to be put down. They have experienced a two decade long recession. Their stock market is still 70% below its 1990 peak. They have no natural resources. They allow virtually no immigration. And their population is in a death spiral. The one and only thing they have going for them is their phenomenal ability to manufacture high quality products and export them to the rest of the world. The earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan severely damaged their just in time manufacturing machine. A surging yen would destroy their export machine by making their products more expensive. Hundreds of high tech Toyota, Honda, and Sony factories are shut. Four hundred miles of ports and harbors have been wiped out. There are rolling blackouts, with one million households without electricity. Over 500,000 people are still homeless.

The short-term impact of this disaster will push Japan into recession. The rebuilding efforts over the coming years will create a positive GDP figure, but will not do anything to benefit Japan over the long haul. The billions designated to rebuild will be money not invested in a more beneficial manner. The linear thinkers conclude that over the long-term Japan will be OK. These people are ignoring the double D’s – Debt and Demographics. When Japan entered its two decades of recession and experienced the Kobe earthquake in 1995, its government debt stood at 52% of GDP. Today it stands at 225% of GDP. Twenty one years ago, the Japanese population was still relatively young, with only 12% of the population over 65 years old. The population of Japan peaked in 2004 and now is in relentless decline. Over 23% of the population is over 65 and the median age is 45 years old. For comparison, the median age in the U.S. is 37 years old, with only 13% over 65. The projection portion of the chart below paints a picture of death. The population of Japan is aging rapidly and will decline by 4.4 million, or 3.5% in the next ten years.

The question I pose to the mainstream thinkers is, “How can a country with a rapidly aging population and nearly one quarter of its population over 65 years old generate the necessary dynamic enthusiasm for rebuilding a shattered country?” Youthful enthusiasm and hope for a brighter future is essential to any enormous rebuilding effort. Japan does not have it in them. News reports already indicate a lethargic and seemingly insufficient response by emergency workers. The devastation seems to have overwhelmed this aging country. The psychological impact of this type of natural disaster will likely have two phases. Psychology professor Magda Osman describes the expected human response:

“After a disaster, typically small communities become incredibly co-operative and pull together to help each other and start the rebuilding process. There’s an immediate response where people start to take control of the situation, begin to deal with it and assess and respond to the devastation around them. The problem is that we aren’t very good at calculating the long-term effects of disasters. After about two months of re-building and cleaning up we tend to experience a second major slump when we realize the full severity of the situation in the longer term. This is what we need to be wary of because this triggers severe depression.”

This would be the normal response of a traumatized populace. An aged populace is likely to experience worse depression and not bounce back from this tragedy. Japan is still the 10th most populated country on earth, with the 3rd largest economy. China just passed Japan to become the 2nd biggest economy in the world. India will pass Japan by 2012.

Youthful countries across the world are gaining on Japan. The wisdom of the elderly doesn’t cut it in a global economy. Global competition is cutthroat. China, India and the other emerging Asian countries will take advantage of Japan’s misfortune by filling the hole left by Japanese manufacturers. The short-term issues of power, supply lines, and reconstruction are minor when compared to a mass die off of the Japanese population that will result in a population that is 25% smaller in 2050 than it is today. Demographics are a bitch.

With the amount of debt hanging over the Japanese empire, it might be a good strategy to commit hari-kari. The non-thinking pundits on CNBC contend that since Japan hasn’t had any detrimental effects from running their debt to 225% of GDP, running it to 300% won’t be a problem. Reinhart and Rogoff studies concluded that once a country breaches the 90% level, growth slows and a debt crisis is likely to ensue. Japan has been stuck in a 20 year recession, as they chose Keynesian shovel ready projects, quantitative easing, currency manipulation, and covering up the true financial condition of its banks over accepting the consequences of a debt bubble. Remind you of anyone? The result is their real GDP is lower today than it was in 1995. The Paul Krugmans of the world would contend that they just didn’t spend enough.

The only reason Japan has not collapsed is due to its homogeneous population willing to buy virtually all of the debt issued by its government for the last twenty years and its prodigious ability to produce high quality products that the rest of the world wants. Japan has maintained a consistent trade surplus, and its government debt has been held mainly by its own people, with 95% of Japanese government bonds in the possession of Japanese, meaning the country was able to finance itself without depending upon fickle foreign investors who might prefer a return greater than 1%. This ain’t 1990. The savings rate of the Japanese population had already declined from 14% in 1990 to 2% by 2008. In a recent article, Mike Shedlock explained the situation prior to the recent devastation:

“The Government Pension Investment Fund, which oversees 117.6 trillion yen ($1.4 trillion), in September forecast that it would sell 4 trillion yen in assets in the business year ending March 31 to fund payouts. Sales by the fund, which helps oversee public pension funds for Japan’s 37 million retirees, come as the first of Japan’s baby boomers is set to turn 65 in 2012, making them eligible for pension payments. Japan choices are to default on its debt, print money to fund interest on the debt, raise taxes effectively robbing savers of their money, or undertake huge spending cuts. The dilemma stems from years of Keynesian and Monetarist stupidity.”

The new tragedy will just accelerate the conversion of Japanese savers into forced spenders. Millions of Japanese savers will be forced to spend their savings on survival, as many have lost their jobs and businesses due to the monumental damage to northern Japan.

Setting Sun – Race to the Bottom

Traders figured out what must happen over the coming years. A large swath of Japanese insurers and companies will begin repatriating assets held in other currencies to begin the rebuilding effort at home, driving the value of the Yen higher. At a time of crisis a stronger Yen would severely damage Japan’s export based economy even further. Therefore, Central Banks around the world jointly intervened. The Bank of Japan spent Y2 trillion ($25 billion), while central banks across Europe contributed $5 billion and the Federal Reserve spent $600 million to push down the yen on Friday. The Bank of Japan is doing what they do best – printing money. Quantitative easing is an art form perfected by all Central Banks across the globe. Every disaster over the last twenty years, whether man made (wars, internet collapse, housing collapse, debt meltdown) or caused by nature, are met with the exact same solution – PRINT MONEY.

This method works until it doesn’t work. Japan’s central bank cannot reverse the demographics. From this point forward the population of Japan will be net sellers of government debt. Japanese insurance companies will be on the hook for $33 billion in claims. They will need to sell government bonds in order to make those payments. The World Bank has estimated the cost of rebuilding to be $235 billion. The government will need to borrow this money. At least 30% of its energy needs are off-line. It already imports 95% of its oil and coal. They will need to increase energy imports to make up for the nuclear energy shortage. Its positive trade balance was already in decline. The clueless CNBC pundits can drone on about how this natural disaster will be good for the Japanese economy because of the substantial rebuilding program, but they are dead wrong. Japan is trapped, with no way out. They will need to issue hundreds of billions in new debt, which cannot be bought by its citizens, pension funds, or insurance companies. How many foreign investors will buy a 10 Year Japanese government bond paying 1%, knowing that Japan wants to weaken its currency? NONE. The only choices are to raise interest rates to attract buyers or print more money. With an already suffocating level of debt, they can’t allow interest rates to rise. They would choke on the interest.

The Bank of Japan will follow the same script as Ben Bernanke. They will print new Yen and buy the newly issued debt. What an original idea. Japan is caught in a debt stranglehold and demographic nightmare. Their currency will ultimately collapse like a nuclear reactor after a tsunami. When Japan defaults on their debt, the pain will be intense, as they will be throwing their own aged population under the bus. America, on the other hand, will throw the whole world under the bus when we default.

The Japanese own $886 billion of US Treasuries and have bought $256 billion of our debt since October 2008. Timmy Geithner will need to issue $1.5 trillion of new bonds per year. Japan will no longer be a buyer. They will be a seller. This will put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. Japan’s reconstruction needs will put pressure on commodity and energy prices. Production and supply problems for Japanese parts and goods are already creating problems for GM and other car companies in the U.S. Lack of supply leads to higher prices. The great earthquake/tsunami/nuclear meltdown of 2011 will result in more quantitative easing in Japan and the U.S. This will result in even more inflation than we are experiencing today. Once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, the race to the bottom will accelerate. Gold will decide who wins the race. It has been a neck and neck race since 2001. I’m not sure it is a race anyone wants to win. But the destination is certain.

“The endeavors to expand the quantity of money in circulation either in order to increase the government’s capacity to spend or in order to bring about a temporary lowering of the rate of interest disintegrate all currency matters and derange economic calculation.” – Ludwig von Mises

Mr. Obama’s War For Oil

Remember, folks: the causes and reasons for war are often remembered far differently than as stated or widely understood at the beginning of the conflict.

This has been the case over and over. Sure, Libya is ‘different’. Actually, it is quite remarkable that a coalition of Arab states is welcoming this US intervention (sure, the French and Danes would’ve gone ahead had we decided to sit on the sidelines), as are the people of eastern Libya.

But rest assured. In short order, the Muslim world and beyond will soon be saying, “sure, Gaadafi was bad, but they had no business invading Arab North Africa.” And that is if Libya comes to a swift, happy conclusion, with Gaadafi gone, rebels in charge and committed to popular democratic rule. And oil continues to flow to Italy and elsewhere in the EU.

Anything goes wrong, and the ire of the world at yet another American intervention will grow. Again.

The obvious hypocrisy of Yemen and Bahrain, where the US government and military are on the side of the dictators literally shooting their own people, while we assist the people of Libya rebelling against another dictator who this year we don’t like. A dictator who was a pariah, but then he paid a big bribe to the west, gave up some uranium, and was off our shit list, from 2003-2011. A horrible terrorist murderer, who six months ago was an ok guy, allowing Halliburton and other western companies profit from that oil trade.

There are two huge forces at work, as I see it. First is the obvious geopolitics of oil. Keep the oil flowing is the overwhelming factor in all American policy, regardless of refusal to state the obvious by almost everyone. China has developed a similar addiction to Middle East oil. Inevitably they will gradually get more and more involved in this region. Eventually with military force, by proxies or directly. So far their actions have been small, subtle and non-military. India, and thus Pakistan, will get into this mess too.

Second is the Sunni-Shia division in the Arab Muslim world. They love fighting one another only slightly less than they hate killing Jews. The first shot of the coming battle along this religious schism has been fired with the Saudi invasion of Bahrain. On behalf of the Bahrain (Sunni) royals; against the Bahrain (Shia) majority population, up until this week protesting peacefully for democratic reforms.

Throw into the mix Iran: sitting on one of the larger pools of oil, a nation on the Shia side of Islam; a longtime enemy of the Saudi Kingdom. And an active supporter of any Arab, Sunni, Shia, Druze or whatthefuckever who wants to kill Jews in Israel.

I can’t help to draw parallels to the late summer of 1914. Yeah, I know, a tired metaphor, a ragtag group of Serbian anarchic rebels assassinate the heir to the occupying kingdom throne, the Archduke of Austria-Hungary. But I see the multiple sparks ultimately resulting in these two large forces dictating how leaders and nations line up and fight a big hanging hairy conflict. Foreign powers that need oil–America and our baby brothers in Western Europe, India and China. And Arab Muslim states that have that oil, but some of them hate each other on strong religious terms.

Exactly how the nation-states line up into sides will be determined. The Saudi’s have the biggest pool of oil, and they will only accept dollars if you want to buy some. The Chinese are tightly tied to the US dollar. Those two dollar facts are subject to change.

I will guess that Sunni will line up against Shia, China against the US and the West, Pakistan against India. Pakistan is 80% sunni (according to the wiki); Iran is 92% shia, and officially a Shia State, the Ayatollahs and all.

Yep. US, Europe, India and Iran on one side; China, Pakistan and Sunni Arabia on the other. of course Israel with the West team. Despite the rhetoric of the current monkey in Iran, who remember lost his election in 2009, the people there and ultimately the old men in clerical robes that call the shots could give a crap about Israel. They are much more concerned with what happens in next door Iraq, whose leader killed a couple of million Persians not all that long ago. They were quite happy to see Mr. Saadam go; they are cool with Iraq as long as their Shia brethren get a fair shake, and they probably have more control over events there than the Obama administration, as we withdraw many of our ground troops.

Iran, to oversimplify, despite all the blab blab you hear, hate the Sunni and Saudi much more than they hate the US and Israel. But they don’t hate China at all yet.

A lot of my thinking is influenced by John Xenakis and his work at his Generational Dynamics website.
Which in turn is based on a foundation of Strauss/Howe and their Fourth Turning explanations of major historic events based on the turning of four generations.

Obama’s action here is typically incoherent, hypocritical, illegal and likely to be counterproductive. I think it is folly for the US to start another military action, with the stupid Iraq and Afghan actions continuing, with the covert Pakistan and Yemen actions against Al Qaada (i don’t know if i support or oppose those two, if they are smart or stupid, because my leaders don’t trust me to tell me what they are doing and who they are killing). Without clear, discussed objectives, without any clue as to what is likely to happen next or how we may be drawn further into a post-Gaadafi situation. In the context of rebellion in Yemen and protest suppression in Baharain. Without Congressional debate, much less constitutionally mandated declaration. Yeah, I know, how quaint, the fucking constitution. I’m just old fashioned.

And even if I concede for a moment that it truly is in the vital interests of the USA to act to support the Libyan rebels, against Gaadafi. Why today? Did that vital interest not exist one week ago? two weeks ago? When Gaadafi could’ve been toppled with a feather, and with minimal bloodshed?

Even if this is a good idea, it was a much much better idea two weeks ago. And obviously, Obama was ignorantly hoping events would play out as they did in Tunisia and Egypt, without strong decisive action by the US. That just a few speeches would turn the trick. Despite the long history of rebellions against brutal dictators generally being protracted, bloody affairs. Being fooled by these two outliers in Tunis and Cairo. Didn’t these fuckers ever read a history book at Harvard or Yale?

Regardless of the rhetoric of the moment, or the excuses that will follow, about being forced by events or by the looming shadow of humanitarian crisis, this is Obama’s war of choice. For oil. For Italy’s oil. Against a nation that bears zero threat to the United States. Without congressional approval, much less a declaration of war. Even if this goes perfect, and is over in a few weeks, it is wrong beyond what I imagined possible a couple of years ago.

“The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation…”

~Senator Barack Obama, quoted by the Boston Globe, December 20, 2007

LIVE LIBYA BLOG – COUNTDOWN TO WAR

UN vote is at 6:00 pm. Get ready for fireworks. Remember Colin Powell’s sage advice. “If you break it, you buy it.” Expect Iran to take advantage of our distracted naval forces.

Libya Live Blog – March 17

By Al Jazeera Staff in

Africa

on March 16th, 2011.

[AFP Picture] Show oldest updates on top

As the uprising in Libya continues, we update you with the latest developments from our correspondents, news agencies and citizens across the globe. Al Jazeera is not responsible for content derived from external sites.

Blog: Feb17 – Feb18 – Feb19 – Feb20 – Feb21 – Feb22 – Feb23 – Feb24 – Feb25 – Feb26 – Feb27 – Feb28 – Mar1 – Mar2 –Mar 3 – Mar4 – Mar5 – Mar6 – Mar 7 – Mar8 – Mar9 – Mar10 – Mar 11 – Mar12 – Mar13 – Mar14 – Mar15 – Mar16

AJE Live Stream – Special Coverage: Libya Uprising – Twitter Audio – Tweeting revolutions

(All times are local in Libya GMT+2)

Timestamp: 10:51pm

The head of the Benghazi-based Libyan National Council says that the opposition’s fighters will “stand firm” and not be deterred by Gaddafi’s threats, Reuters reports.

Timestamp: 10:41pm

Gaddafi did an interview with RTP, a Portuguese television station, this evening. In it, he said:

The Security Council has not got the right to interfere in the internal affairs of any state. It would be a flagrant colonisation, without any justification. A serious and grave [inaudible]. This is craziness, madness, arrogance. If the world gets crazy with us, we will get crazy too…”

Asked what he means by ‘get crazy’, Gaddafi said:

We will respond. We will make their lives hell, because they are making our lives hell. They will never have peace.”

Timestamp: 10:27pm

Francois Fillon, the French prime minister, has added his voice to French chorus asserting that his government wishes to see immediate military action of the UN Security Council adopts a resolution on Libya.

Timestamp: 10:23pm

A Libyan government spokesman says that any UN action against Libya would be “illegal and immoral”. Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:

That would be illegal and immoral. It’s an armed rebellion. Any country would’ve fought against that. They are basing their decision on media reports.

“This should not happen. It would harm the Libyan people. It would only strengthen our internal position because Libyans will have an external enemy and act as one.”

Timestamp: 10:15pm

AFP has released some excerpts from the draft UN resolution. They are reproduced below. The resolution:

Demands the immediate establishment of a ceasefire and a complete end to violence and all attacks against, and abuses of, civilians;

“Stresses the need to intensify efforts to find a solution to the crisis which responds to the legitimate demands of the Libyan people and notes the decisions of the Secretary-General to send his Special Envoy to Libya and of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union to send its ad hoc High Level Committee to Libya with the aim of facilitating dialogue to lead to the political reforms necessary to find a peaceful and sustainable solution;

“Demands that the Libyan authorities comply with their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, human rights and refugee law and take all measures to protect civilians and meet their basic needs, and to ensure the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian assistance;

“Authorises member states … to take all necessary measures … to protect civilians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, including Benghazi, while excluding a foreign
occupation force of any form on any part of Libyan territory…;

“Decides to establish a ban on all flights in the airspace of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya in order to help protect civilians;

“Calls upon all member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, to provide assistance, including any necessary over-flight approvals, for the purposes of implementing” the no-fly zone.

“Calls upon all member states, in particular states of the region, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, in order to ensure strict implementation of the arms embargo established (by Resolution 1970) to inspect in their territory, including seaports and airports, and on the high seas, vessels and aircraft bound to or from the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya…

“Deplores the continuing flows of mercenaries into the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and calls upon all member states to comply strictly with their obligations under (Resolution 1970) to prevent the supply of armed mercenary personnel to the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya;

“Decides that all states shall deny permission to any aircraft registered in the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya or owned or operated by Libyan nationals or companies to take off from, land in or overfly their territory
unless the particular flight has been approved in advance by the Committee, or in the case of an emergency landing;

“Decides that all States shall deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items the
supply, sale, transfer, or export of which is prohibited … including the provision of armed mercenary personnel, except in the case of an emergency landing;

“Decides that the asset freeze imposed by (Resolution 1970) shall apply to all funds, other financial assets and economic resources which are on their territories, which are owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by the Libyan authorities … or by individuals or entities acting on their behalf or at their direction…

“Affirms its determination to ensure that assets frozen pursuant to (Resolution 1970) shall, at a later stage, as soon as possible be made available to and for the benefit of the people of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.”

Timestamp: 9:47pm

AFP now quotes Alain Juppe, the French foreign minister, as saying that military strikes could quickly follow after a UN security council resolution on Libya.

Timestamp: 9:39pm

Citing sources in the French government, AFP reports that air raids on Libyan army positions could begin as soon as the UN Security Council approves the use of force in Libya.

“From the moment the resolution is adopted, military actions could begin in the hours that follow,” a diplomatic source said.

Timestamp: 9:35pm

The Associated Press reports that the closest known position of pro-Gaddafi ground forces to Benghazi is about 130km to the south.

Timestamp: 9:26pm

Here’s a screen grab from our live feed from Benghazi, where residents were both angry, but also in a celebratory mood, during and after Gaddafi’s speech.

Timestamp: 9:17pm

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that this speech will likely affect the deliberations at the United Nations, emphasising the urgency that is required regarding action to safeguard civilians.

He also opines that this will be seen as an “act of desperation”.

Timestamp: 9:10pm

Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that he travelled as far as 50km outside of Benghazi a few hours ago, and saw no evidence of any pro-Gaddafi forces approaching the city.

Al Jazeera’s Anita McNaught in Tripoli reports that just a little while before his radio address to Benghazi, Gaddafi had spoken to Lebanese television saying that he would not be launching any military operation on Benghazi in the immediate term.

She also reports that “it’s impossible to know how many people really love him … and how many people don’t want him at all” because security forces control the capital.

Timestamp: 9:07pm

Quite clear from that speech that Gaddafi says he intends to launch an operation on Benghazi tonight, and he would like the city taken by tomorrow. It is not immediately clear if this rhetoric, or if residents of the city are preparing for a possible assault.

Timestamp: 9:02pm

Those quotes below, of course, are from Muammar Gaddafi’s speech to the residents of Benghazi. Meanwhile, live pictures from Benghazi show massive crowds of people, chanting angry slogans in opposition to him.

Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera’s senior political analyst, says that there is a striking similarity between the statements made by Gaddafi and those made by Hosni Mubarak, the former Egyptian president, before he stepped down from power.

Timestamp: 9:01pm

They are finished, they are wiped out. From tomorrow you will only find our people. You all go out and cleanse the city of Benghazi. A small problem that has become an international issue. And they are voting on it tonight … because they are determined. As I have said, we are determined. We will track them down, and search for them, alley by alley, road by road, the Libyan people all of them together will be crawling out. Massive waves of people will be crawling out to rescue the people of Benghazi, who are calling out for help, asking us to rescue them. We should come to their rescue.

“And I, Muammar Gaddafi, I will die for my people. With Allah’s help.

“No more fear, no more hesitation, we are no longer reluctant. The moment of truth has come. If you see the cars with loudspeakers, destroy them, destroy their communications points that are spreading lies to you. Our children are the one’s who have destroyed these planes.

“Just like Franco in Spain, who rolled into Madrid with external support. And they asked how did you manage to liberate Madrid? He said: ‘There was a fifth column, the people of the city.’ You are the fifth column within the city. This is the day on which we should liberate the city. We’ve been looking forward to that day. And tomorrow we will communicate again, and our cause will continue towards the south.

“With our bare chests and heads we were confronting the dangers, facing the challenge, we did not initiate this violence, they started it. Of course, these words will have an impact on the traitors and infidels. Tonight they will panic and they will collapse.

“You are capable of doing it. You are capable of achieving this. Let’s set our women and daughters free from those traitors.

“God is great.”

Timestamp: 8:46pm

“Throw away your arms and find a way out of the city, and then you are saved. Those young men who have been taken advantage of – those infidels who are attempting to burn down our country to the ground, we should have no mercy on them. Those are the traitors, used and abused by those infidels from Qatar, unfortunately, Kuwait and other countries. How stupid can you become to be taken advantage of to that extent in Benghazi? Now you’re hungry and thirsty – we don’t have a natural disaster like the one that happened in Japan recently … but those infidels and traitors we promise to deal with. But the peaceful individuals of our people … should put down their weapons, there is no danger. They should not feel unsafe. There is not a single officer in Benghazi who did not call us, who have been warning us that they have been threatened by people like Zarkawi of being slaughtered.

“Those who have been forced to follow those infidels … those also will be forgiven, granted amnesty, those are my children, and we should not leave those children to distort the image of our country after such a bright history. You have been forced.

One of the companions of the prophets who was tortured who was forced to say he did not believe in the Prophet Muhammad, and he could not face the Prophet afterwards. And the Prophet said don’t worry, God has forgiven you. Except those who were forced to utter things against their hearts. Even those of you who were forced to say things against myself, you are my children, and those in the special forces, the free officers of this country, you have sworn to defend the revolution of September. To fight the enemies. We are coming your rescue. And we will turn the sad situation into celebrations. We will wipe out this black page of our history.

“To all those honest, brave officers, members of the revolutionary committees, university students, and female revolutionary committees, get ready to rebel against those traitors. The world has to see this tomorrow… that Benghazi is not a city of traitors.

“Benghazi, I have liberated it myself earlier with my gun.

“Those, the people who we have seen from one of the city to the other. Destroy any fortified points that you can get to, and if they run away, you take their weapons and you can occupy them.

“The Jawazi tribes, those are brave tribes, we have been proud of. They have an honourable history before the whole world. Let the world witness one more good deed.

“From tonight, those who decide to flee, you take their weapons, and you keep them safe.

“Is it possible that each plane that flies crashes? Is that real? Can that happen?

“There is a cemetary that has been bombed. Is that possible? How can you bomb a cemetary? You are bombing dead people. Your grandparents are buried there. …

“These planes are supposed to be liberating Palestine, or confronting imperialism. Is it possible that our planes are fighting each other? Is it real?

“All people should surround the traitors, to tell them that there is no way out.

“What indicates to us about this current enemy, where are they, where are they hiding, in what room? They are cheating you to tell you that a plane has been able to hit Bab Al-Aziziya, where I live. It has been the centre of celebrations.”

Timestamp: 8:43pm

Gaddafi says he has received thousands of phone calls from families in Benghazi, asking to be rescued.

He alleges that “they” want to make Libya “like Somalia”, adding that Libya is a rich country, but the flow of oil has been stopped.

He has accused Qatar of fueling unrest in the country, and wanting Libya to “surrender it’s dignity” to Qatar.

Gaddafi has also offered “amnesty” to “those who put down their weapons”, adding that people who are fighting have been “fooled”.

He said that fighters should put down their weapons and they would be safe – if they did not, they would be treated as “enemies”.

Timestamp: 8:41pm

Gaddafi says that those fighting in Benghazi are criminals who have been released from prison – that they are “drug addicts” and “murderers” who have been released and handed weapons to fight.

Timestamp: 8:40pm

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is addressing residents of Benghazi via radio and television now.

Timestamp: 8:24pm

More on that Gaddafi address: state television reports that his comments will be broadcast on both radio and television.

Timestamp: 8:23pm

Wondering what the complexities involved in setting up a no-fly zone are? Wonder no longer – Al Jazeera’s Jacqueline Head has prepared a handy guide.

Timestamp: 8:22pm

Andreas Oess, of Swiss Humanitarian Aid, says that if Benghazi were to fall, about 40,000-100,000 people would be expected to flood towards the border with Egypt.

“We are not ready” for those kinds of numbers, he said.

Timestamp: 8:05pm

Diplomats have told Al Jazeera that there has been agreement over most of the draft resolution, but there is still concern over one paragraph, reproduced below, which deals with taking “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians, short of an “occupation force”.

Authorises member states that have notified the Secretary-General and the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, acting nationally or through regional organisations or arrangements, and acting in cooperation with the S-G, to take all necessary measures, notwithstanding paragraph 9 of Resolution 1970, to protect cilivians and civilian populated areas under threat of attack in the Libyan Arab Jamarhiya, including Benghazi, while excluding an occupation force and requests the member states concerned to inform the S-G immediately of the measures they take pursuant to the authorisation conferred by this paragraph which shall immediately reported to the security council.

Timestamp: 8:03pm

AFP reports that Muammar Gaddafi is to address the people of Benghazi, according to state television.

Timestamp: 8:01pm

Jay Carney, the White House spokesperson, says the US is acting with “urgency” on the situation in Libya.

We are very concerned about the situation in Libya and the violence that is being perpetrated by the Gaddafi regime against its people. We are acting with a great sense of urgency together with our international partners to take the kinds of actions that we believe will protect Libyan citizens and move towards a
situation where Gaddafi is no longer in power.”

Timestamp: 7:51pm

The UN Security Council session has been adjourned until 2200GMT, when ambassadors will go straight into a vote, Benedict Moran, an Al Jazeera producer in New York, reports.

Timestamp: 7:21pm

The official Jana news agency reports that Libya is warning it could target air and sea traffic in the Mediterranean if a foreign military intervention is staged.

Meanwhile, Russia says that it still has unanswered questions regarding the imposition of a no-fly zone over Libya.

“What type of control mechanisms … does it have? Who will be implementing it, by what means, in what format?,” foreign ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich demanded.

Timestamp: 7:11pm

Mark Lyall Grant, the UK’s ambassador to the United Nations, says that the UN Security Council has scheduled a vote on a resolution for 2200GMT (6pm local time in New York), Reuters reports.

Timestamp: 7:09pm

A UN draft resolution to be discussed in New York today by the UN Security Council must authorise action against Libya, “including a no-fly zone”, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says.

Our goal in the Security Council today is to convince the Security Council to authorise more actions, including a no-fly zone, but other actions as well, and then to see how many countries are willing to actually do what the Security Council has authorised us to do.”

Timestamp: 7:05pm

Muammar Gaddafi is likely to “cause trouble” for neighbouring countries if he is allowed to stay in power, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, says. During a televised question & answer program with Tunisians, she said:

Tunisia knows very well that if Gaddafi does not go, he will most likely cause trouble for you, for Egypt and for
everybody else. That is just his nature. You know, there are some creatures that are like that.”

Timestamp: 6:37pm

At least two Arab states have said they will participate in a no-fly zone over Libya, the Arab League says.

Yahya Mahmassani, the bloc’s envoy to the United Nations, said that the United Arab Emirates and Qatar “may be” among those participating.

Timestamp: 6:25pm

The United States has joined France, Britain and Lebanon in pressing for timely approval of the UN Security Council’s draft resolution on intervention in Libya, and it appears that the United States is now pushing for additional measures to a no-fly zone to be adopted, including possible strikes against ground and sea targets to protect civilians.

This would be a change in the policy the US has been adopting so far, when it has urged caution in even advocating a no-fly zone.

Timestamp: 6:21pm

Egypt says that it will not intervene militarily in Libya. Responding to Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state’s, comments earlier about possible “Arab involvement” in military action, Menha Bakhoum, an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson told Reuters:

Egypt will not be among those Arab states. We will not be involved in any military intervention. No intervention, period.”

Timestamp: 6:16pm

The Pentagon has voiced “concern about conducting military operations inside Libya”.

“It would be logical if one of [US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’] concerns about a no-fly zone is the element of attacking Libyan air defenses, then an option of air strikes would be pretty similar,” Colonel David Lapan, a spokesman, said, adding that there was concern regarding the conduct of such operations.

Timestamp: 5:44pm

Consultations on the draft UN Security Council resolution in New York have just begun.

Timestamp: 5:38pm

US State department official William Burns says the opposition Libyan National Council may set up an office in Washington DC, the American capital.

Timestamp: 5:34pm

New York-based rights group Human Rights Watch warns of “atrocities” if Benghazi is taken by forces loyal to Gaddafi.

Fred Abrahams, a special advisor to the group, says:

Our main concern is the extreme violence and potential for retribution by Gaddafi’s forces if he succeeds in retaking the area. This is a clarion call given the potential for very grave and very widespread abuses if he retakes Benghazi.

“He [Gaddafi] won’t hesitate to use violence against this rebellious city … we’re simply saying that Benghazi and the eastern cities face the risk of serious violations, perhaps even atrocities.

“We know that the rebels in Benghazi are better armed and more professional, not like the other young men who ran to the front. We know the people who started this will stay until the end, but people are deeply afraid. They know Gaddafi and they know this kind of rebellion can only end in victory or defeat.”

Donatella Rovera, an Amnesty International research in Tobruk, says that is been impossible to contact residents of Ajdabiyah, the site of fierce clashes, on Thursday.

I’ve talked to people who have recently left Ajdabiyah and who say that the situation there is extremely tense. They are scared, there were hits around the town.”

Timestamp: 5:32pm

The possible direct involvement of Arab nations in any international military intervention in Libya is currently being discussed, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, says during a press conference in the Tunisian capital, Tunis.

Timestamp: 5:29pm

Opposition fighters in Benghazi say they have shot down two warplanes piloted by officers loyal to Gaddafi. Essam Gheirani, a spokesperson, said that one was shot down near Benina airport, and the other in the Buatani area, on the outskirts of the city.

Earlier in the day, Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reported that he went to the area where opposition fighters said they had shot down one of the planes, and could find no trace of it.

Timestamp: 5:23pm

Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler in New York reports that the United Nations Security Council is still discussing developments in Afghanistan, with deputy ambassadors present. The formal, closed-door consultations on Libya have not yet begun.

Timestamp: 5:18pm

You can watch that ongoing hearing with William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, live here.

Timestamp: 5:15pm

A high-level panel of the African Union is due to hold a meeting on Saturday in, Nouakchott, the Mauritanian capital, to discuss development in Libya. The five-member heads of state committee of the AU will “determine the modalities of the implementation of its mandate”, according to an AU statement.

Timestamp: 5:11pm

More from that continuing statement from US Undersecretary of State William Burns. He says that there is a “danger of [Gaddafi] returning to terrorism and violent extremism” if he suceeds in his battle against opposition forces.

Timestamp: 5:06pm

General Norton Schwartz, the chief of the US air force, says that imposing a no-fly zone over Libya would “not be sufficient” to reverse the advance of Muammar Gaddafi’s forces on opposition strongholds.

Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, he said that it could take “upwards of a week” to set up a no-fly zone.

He said that if the US were to get involved in international efforts to set up the no-fly zone, aircraft based in Europe and in the United States would be use, but some resources currently being used in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would also be used.

Timestamp: 5:02pm

Reuters reports that France wants the UN Security Council to vote on a resolution authorising a no-fly zone, according to Gerard Araud, the French ambassador to the UN.

I would say that we are asking for a vote at 6:00pm [2200 GMT]. You know the United Nations, it can drift but we are going to ask for a vote at 6:00pm.”

Members of China’s delegation to the UN have told Al Jazeera that they, too, will be looking for consensus to be reached today, though they did not say if they would now be back the imposition of a no-fly zone, a step they had expressed concern over earlier.

Timestamp: 5:00pm

Opposition fighters in the western city of Zintan (120km southwest of Tripoli) say they are bracing for an attack by forces loyal to Gaddafi.

A witness told AFP:

According to the fighters, forces loyal to Kadhafi are trying to encircle Zintan. There are troop movements around the north and southwest. They expect a big attack on the city. I heard no gunfire this morning. They say they blocked the main column [of tanks] during the night.

“Yesterday there was major fighting about 20 kilometres southwest of Zintan. It lasted a good part of the night. According to fighters, there were very heavy weapons.”

Timestamp: 4:50pm

Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, has proposed a strengthening of sanctions on Libya, while US Undersecretary of State Burns says that the US wants “an active Arab partnership” regarding further steps in Libya.

Timestamp: 4:48pm

William Burns, the US Undersecretary of State has warned that Muammar Gaddafi’s forces are making “significant” gains. He was speaking to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Gaddafi’s forces have made significant strides o the ground. I believe they are only about 160km from Benghazi right now.”

Timestamp: 4:31pm

William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says that the United States proposed a strengthening of the UN security council resolution during deliberations yesterday.

Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, says that a no-fly zone is one of a “range of actions”, but that it has “inherent limitations in terms of protection of civilians at immediate risk”.

Timestamp: 4:30pm

NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says that the military alliance is not seeking to “intervene in Libya”, but wishes to be prepared if action is needed.

Timestamp: 4:28pm

More on that statement regarding a possible ceasefire. The Jana state news agency says:

The provisional general committee [ministry] of defence has decided to halt military operations against the armed terrorist bands from midnight on Sunday [2200 GMT] … to give a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from a general amnesty.”

Timestamp: 4:27pm

Residential areas in Ajdabiyah are coming under continued heavy aerial bombardment, Reuters reports, citing witnesses speaking to satellite television networks.

Timestamp: 4:22pm

Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk has the latest:

No-one really knows which way Gaddafi’s forces will go next. Ajdabiyah still has fighting taking place around it. We know that there’s fighting in terms of air strikes now on Benghazi … that suggests that Gaddafi’s forces are going to make their way along the coast. But they have another option, there is a road that goes straight from Ajdabiyah right here to Tobruk. It is, if you drive it, about 4 hours of desert road, no towns along it at all, so no really early warning for the opposition if Gaddafi’s forces take that road.

“It’s a road or a route … that’s certainly been used in history. In the second World War, that’s where Rommel’s Panzer tanks came along. So I think it is a possibility that he may try to cut off all of the rebel-held towns along the coast line. The main reason for doing that … here in Tobruk, we’re very close to the Egyptian border, and I think Gaddafi would like nothing better than to close that border, because that closes the supply line to the opposition forces.

Asked how Gaddafi has managed to make gains so far, Bays said:

Well, what’s he’s done with most of these towns and places that he’s gone through, is that he’s basically frightened the people into submission. He’s gone to a place like Ajdabiyah and he’s used bombardment at the edge of the town, and then frightened the people into submission in places like Brega and then moved on to the next place.

“Will he do that in Benghazi? Already the air strikes have started around Benghazi, and I can tell you that both here and in Benghazi, the opposition politicians are very upbeat, the opposition military commanders, they say that the big cities are different and they’ll fight him off.”

Timestamp: 4:17pm

AFP, quoting the state news agency Jana, says that the Libyan army will halt military operations from Sunday in order to give opposition fighters a chance to lay down their arms and benefit from an amnesty.

More on this report as and when it comes through.

Timestamp: 4:00pm

That statement from NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen:

It is absolutely outrageous to see the Libyan regime systematically attack its own civilian population. These acts may amount to crimes against humanity.”

Timestamp: 3:53pm

The attacks by forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi on civilians may be “crimes against humanity”, NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says, according to the AFP news agency.

Timestamp: 3:51pm

More on the airstrikes in Benghazi, from an opposition spokesman.

We have no evidence that any of the strikes caused any damage. It seems to us like a warning, a challenge to the international community.”

He said one of the raids struck near Benina airport, but that airport officials told him no damage had been incurred. Another strike hti Buatani, to the city’s east, and a third in the northwest. The fourth target was near the town of Qaminis, about 50km south of the city.

Timestamp: 3:49pm

A government spokesman says that Libyan military operations in Misurata will be completed by tomorrow.

Mussa Ibrahim, the spokesman, said:

It’s almost entirely under control. This is the final stage. It should be over by tomorrow morning.”

Timestamp: 3:48pm

Muammar Gaddafi says that his forces are set to regain control over the opposition-held towns of Misurata and Benghazi, Al Arabiya television reports.

Gaddafi said that the battle for Misurata will be decided today, while Benghazi would fall without fighting, the satellite television channel says.

Timestamp: 3:45pm

The statement from NATO chief Rasmussen:

Time is of the essence, time is rapidly running out, but I don’t think it’s too late. Very much will depend on the UN Security Council decision.

“I can imagine the international community and the United Nations standing strongly together behind the Libyan people if the weakened regime continues to attack its own people.”

Timestamp: 3:44pm

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary-general, has warned that the UN Security Council must act quickly to agree a resolution on Libya, as “time is running out” to stop Muammar Gaddafi from prevailing over opposition fighters.

Timestamp: 3:42pm

Essam Gheriani, a spokesman for pro-democracy fighters in Benghazi, says Gaddafi’s troops are “no where near Benghazi”. He says that pro-Gaddafi troops have approached the oil town of Zueitina, but that they “have been surrounded by the revolutionary forces and are being dealt with”.

Timestamp: 3:33pm

Al Jazeera’s James Bays reports with the latest from the eastern rebel-held town of Tobruk:

There have been fresh air strikes we understand in the last few minutes in Benghazi. One of those airstrikes, another one, taking place on the main airport there. And we’re hearing this time from our team that were there … that there have been casualties this time.

“The opposition are claiming that they’ve made some successes as well, they’re claiming that they’ve shot down a MiG aircraft. I have to say that our correspondent Tony Birtley has been to the scene where this MiG aircraft is supposed to have been shot down, and he can find no sign of it at all.”

Asked about the situation in Tobruk, he said:

It is a long way away, but I think they are still concerned, and they’re concerned because Gaddafi’s forces in the last few days have been pounding Ajdabiyah. Now that is the gateway to Benghazi, but it’s also the gateway to Tobruk, because there’s another road that goes through the desert that goes … to here. And there is some suggestion that possibly one of the things that Gaddafi might consider is to try and seal off the whole of this peninsula by taking that road. Not actually going into Benghazi, but sealing off Benghazi and the other cities along the coast and possibly even closing the border.

“I spoke a short time ago to a Major-General who has come back from the front line, and he says that … they are prepared in Benghazi, but they’re also prepared here, because they know that that is one possible option of Gaddafi to send forces this way and then to try and encircle all of the rebel troops.

“There’s a very defiant mood here, and a lot of support for those opposed to Gaddafi. But you go out on the streets, you go to the edge of town … and really no evidence of any defences at all that I could see, right at the edge of the town in the last few hours, we went out there to the airport, which is on the very edge of the town, that’s the way Gaddafi’s forces would come if they came all the way to Tobruk. And there were just a few fighters, one of them couldn’t have been more than about 12 years old … so not strong defences.

“And I can tell you that when you speak to the people here, they say they’re winning, they say they’re beating back Gaddafi. Then you ask them the question should the international community do more, and they say ‘Yes, we’re all going to die if they don’t help’. So very contradictory answers to those questions.

Timestamp: 3:19pm

Al Jazeera’s James Bays in Tobruk reports that fresh air strikes have taken place in Benghazi in the last few minutes, with the airport being targetted in one of the attacks. Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley in Benghazi says that there have been casualties, though the exact numbers are unclear at this early stage.

Timestamp: 3:02pm

William Hague, the UK’s foreign minister, says there is now nothing holding the US back on supporting calls for a no-fly zone over Libya, Reuters reports.

Timestamp: 3:00pm

Aid agencies say that there are more Libyan families fleeing the country’s east into Egypt than before, but that there is still not a major outflow.

Sybella Wilkes, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) told Reuters:

We’re seeing higher numbers of Libyans going out. Some are leaving Benghazi saying they fear it might be bombed and the road to the border might be blocked.”

Marcal Izard, a spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), said there is “no major movement of displaced” people towards the border.

Timestamp: 2:43pm

Libyan state television reports that forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi have recaptured Zueitina, a major oil terminal, and are advancing towards the outskirts of Benghazi.

There is no immediate confirmation of this report.

Timestamp: 2:41pm

Residents of the western town of Misurata say they are preparing for a new attack by pro-Gaddafi forces.

Saadoun, a Misurata resident, told the Reuters news agency:

There were two more rounds of shelling last night. But things are quiet so far. We are hearing that tanks are moving … We believe they will attack the city again. We are not sure if they will do it right now or if they will wait for more reinforcement from Tripoli, especially after their defeat yesterday.”

Timestamp: 2:11pm A senior hospital official told The Associated Press that 30 people have been killed since Tuesday night in fighting for the gateway to rebel-held territory.

Libya’s opposition battled to keep Gaddafi’s forces at the city of Ajdabiya on Thursday, hoping for help from the UN Security Council before his tanks and troops break through.

The official said at least 80 were hurt and hospitalised and many more of the wounded could not reach the hospital. He spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of official retaliation.

Gaddafi’s rapid advance on the rebels appears to have spurred the United States to leave behind weeks of doubts about a no-fly zone in Libya, and start pushing for broader UN authorisation for international air, sea and land forces. Timestamp: 1:40pm Libyan state television said on Thursday that forces loyal to Gaddafi had recaptured the western city of Misurata, but residents and rebels in the city denied the report. State television said the armed forces had retaken control of Misurata and it was now being “sterilised from those criminal armed gangs”.

But three residents told the Reuters news agency the rebels still controlled the city.

“This [state TV] is not true. They are lying. Misurata is quiet and there is no sound of any bombing,” resident Mohamed said.

Timestamp: 1:35pm Fighting between Libyan rebels and Gaddafi’s troops near the eastern town of Ajdabiyah killed at least 30 women, children and elderly men, according to reports. Libyan rebels have been trying to halt Gaddafi’s troops’ push towards the insurgent capital of Benghazi. Timestamp: 1:23pm

Libyan State TV says gunfire and explosions are being heard at the airport near Benghazi.

Timestamp: 1:21pm

At least 30 people are dead in hospital in the eastern Libyan town of Ajdabiyah, according to reports.

Timestamp: 1:18pm

Conflicting reports: Libyan State TV is reporting that Gaddafi’s forces are in control of the western city of Misurata. However, rebel fighters deny the report, saying they are still in control of the city.

Timestamp: 12:00pm Gaddafi fighter jets have bombarded Benina airport, 10km south of Benghazi city, Al Jazeera’s correspondent reports. Timestamp: 10:00am On the move and on a mission to crush the opposition – Libyan forces loyal to Gaddafi head east.

Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley has the latest on the uprising:

Timestamp: 9:15am

Medical sources in Misurata told Al Jazeera that at least 80 members of Gaddafi’s forces were killed during yesterday’s fighting.

Timestamp: 7:40am In Benghazi – Libya’s rebel-controlled second largest city – opposition protesters are buoyed by news that fighters in a nearby town have beaten back an offensive by Gaddafi’s forces.
While some in the city are apprehensive that the war may still come to their door step, they remain defiant, vowing to fight on to defeat Gaddafi’s troops.
Al Jazeera’s Tony Birtley reports from Benghazi:

Timestamp: 6:12am Gaddafi said his forces would fight a “decisive battle” on Thursday, as diplomats backing a no-fly zone to rein him in pressed for a vote at the UN Security Council. Timestamp: 3:30am

Al Jazeera’s Scott Heidler said that Rice’s call for “a resolution that should go beyond a no-fly zone, is something that we haven’t heard before.

“We are hearing from diplomatic sources that change came over night on Tuesday when an initial draft resolution presented and discussed yesterday afternoon.

“She came into the discussions today [Wednesday] with a different point of view. And that was yes no-fly zone and even a step further beyond a no-fly zone.”

Timestamp: 3:00am

France, Britain and the United States have pressed for a UN Security Council vote on Thursday on a no fly zone to halt Muammar Gaddafi’s attacks on rebels.

Council ambassadors met behind closed doors to debate the text for more than eight hours on Wednesday, and said they would return on Thursday morning.

Timestamp: 1:53am

The UN Security Council may need to take measures in Libya that go beyond a no-fly zone in Libya, the US envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday.

Timestamp: 1:47am

The US ambassador to the United Nations has said that the Security Council will continue the negotiations on Libya Thursday.

“My hope that we are able to reach a serious resolution.”

Timestamp: 1:29am

The AFP news agency reported on Wednesday that the UN Security Council have reached an agreement on the text of a draft resolution on Libya, which will be put to a vote on Thursday, diplomats said.

Timestamp: 1:00am

Reuters news agency has reported that the Libyan army has set an ultimatum on Wednesday to clear Benghazi by 2200 GMT, Libyan television reported.

A text on the screen of Al-Libya television addressed the residents of Benghazi saying:

“The army is coming to support you and to cleanse your city from armed gangs.

“It urges you to keep out by midnight of areas where the armed men and weapon storage areas are located.”

TIDE OF 1,000 BODIES

I don’t care how stoic and well organized the Japanese are. No one can be prepared for what is hitting them day after day. It is mentally overwhelming. I’m no phsychologist, but I would expect mass depression to sweep over their population. Their demographics are dramatically skewed toward older people. The country doesn’t have enough young people to overcome this devastation with the enthusiasm they showed in 1995 after the Kyoto earthquake. Their Debt to GDP was 90% in 1995. Today it is 200%. They don’t have the financial wherewithal to recover from this disaster. Japan’s economy will spiral downward. I believe this will be the tipping point for the far worse part of the Fourth Turning.

Tide of 1,000 bodies overwhelms quake-hit Japan

By JAY ALABASTER and TODD PITMAN, AP
27 minutes ago

Debris covers part of a fishing port on Izushima island in Onagawacho, north…

Millions of people were facing a fourth night without water, food or heating in near-freezing temperatures in the devastated northeast. Meanwhile, a third reactor at a nuclear power plant lost its cooling capacity and the fuel rods at another were at least briefly fully exposed, raising fears of a meltdown. The stock market plunged over the likelihood of huge losses by Japanese industries including big names such as Toyota and Honda.

A Japanese police official said 1,000 washed up bodies were found scattered Monday across the coastline of Miyagi prefecture. The official declined to be named, citing department policy.

The discovery raised the official death toll to about 2,800, but the Miyagi police chief has said that more than 10,000 people are estimated to have died in his province alone, which has a population of 2.3 million.

In one town in a neighboring prefecture, the crematorium was unable to handle the crush of bodies being brought in for funerals.

“We have already begun cremations, but we can only handle 18 bodies a day. We are overwhelmed and are asking other cites to help us deal with bodies. We only have one crematorium in town,” Katsuhiko Abe, an official in Soma, told The Associated Press.

In Japan, most people opt to cremate their dead, a process that, like burial, requires permission first from local authorities. But the government took the rare step Monday of waiving that requirement to speed up funerals, said Health Ministry official Yukio Okuda.

“The current situation is so extraordinary, and it is very likely that crematoriums are running beyond capacity,” said Okuda. “This is an emergency measure. We want to help quake-hit people as much as we can.”

Friday’s double tragedy has caused unimaginable deprivation for people of this industrialized country — Asia’s richest — which hasn’t seen such hardship since World War II. In many areas there is no running water, no power and four- to five-hour waits for gasoline. People are suppressing hunger with instant noodles or rice balls while dealing with the loss of loved ones and homes.

“People are surviving on little food and water. Things are simply not coming,” said Hajime Sato, a government official in Iwate prefecture, one of the three hardest hit.

He said authorities were receiving just 10 percent of the food and other supplies they need. Body bags and coffins were running so short that the government may turn to foreign funeral homes for help, he said.

“We have requested funeral homes across the nation to send us many body bags and coffins. But we simply don’t have enough,” he told the AP. “We just did not expect such a thing to happen. It’s just overwhelming.”

The pulverized coast has been hit by hundreds of aftershocks since Friday, the latest one a 6.2 magnitude quake that was followed by a new tsunami scare Monday. As sirens wailed, soldiers abandoned their search operations and told residents of the devastated shoreline in Soma, the worst hit town in Fukushima prefecture, to run to higher ground.

They barked out orders: “Find high ground! Get out of here!” Several soldiers were seen leading an old woman up a muddy hillside. The warning turned out to be a false alarm.

Search parties arrived in Soma for the first time since Friday to dig out bodies. Ambulances stood by and body bags were laid out in an area cleared of debris, as firefighters used hand picks and chain saws to clear an indescribable jumble of broken timber, plastic sheets, roofs, sludge, twisted cars, tangled powerlines and household goods.

Helicopters buzzed overhead, surveying the destruction that spanned the horizon. Ships were flipped over near roads, a half-mile (a kilometer) inland. Officials said one-third of the city of 38,000 people was flooded and thousands were missing.

In addition to the more than 2,800 people who have been confirmed dead, more than 1,400 were missing. Another 1,900 were injured.

Japanese officials have refused to speculate on how high the death toll could rise, but experts who dealt with the 2004 Asian tsunami offered a dire outlook.

“It’s a miracle really, if it turns out to be less than 10,000 (dead),” said Hery Harjono, a senior geologist with the Indonesian Science Institute, who was closely involved with the aftermath of earlier disaster that killed 230,000 people — of which only 184,000 bodies were found.

He drew parallels between the two disasters — notably that many bodies in Japan may have been sucked out to sea or remain trapped beneath rubble as they did in Indonesia’s hardest-hit Aceh province. But he also stressed that Japan’s infrastructure, high-level of preparedness and city planning to keep houses away from the shore could mitigate their human losses.

The Japanese government has sent 100,000 troops to lead the aid effort. It has sent 120,000 blankets, 120,000 bottles of water and 29,000 gallons (110,000 liters) of gasoline plus food to the affected areas. However, electricity will take days to restore.

According to public broadcaster NHK, some 430,000 people are living in emergency shelters or with relatives. Another 24,000 people are stranded, it said.

One reason for the loss of power is the damage several nuclear reactors in the area. At one plant, Fukushima Dai-ichi, three reactors have lost the ability to cool down, the latest on Monday. Explosions have destroyed the containment buildings of the other two reactors. Fuel rods at the third were fully explosed, at least briefly, on Monday.

Operators were dumping sea water into all three reactors in a last-ditch attempt to cool their superheated containers that faced possible meltdown. If that happens, they could release radioactive material in the air.

But Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the inner containment vessel holding the nuclear fuel rods at the reactor that experienced an explosion Monday was intact, allaying some fears of the risk to the environment. The containment vessel of the first reactor is also safe, according to officials.

Still, people within a 12-mile (20-kilometer) radius were ordered to stay inside homes following the blast. AP journalists felt Monday’s explosion 25 miles (40 kilometers) away.

Military personnel on helicopters returning to ships with the U.S. 7th Fleet registered low-level of radioactive contamination Monday, but were cleared after a scrub-down. As a precaution, the ship shifted to a different area off the coast.

More than 180,000 people have evacuated the area around the plants in recent days.

Also, Tokyo Electric Power held off on imposing rolling blackouts planned for Monday, but called for people to try to limit electricity use.

Edano said the utility was still prepared to go ahead with power rationing if necessary. The decision reflected an understanding of the profound inconveniences many would experience.

Many regional train lines were suspended or operating on a limited schedule to help reduce the power load.

Japan’s central bank injected 15 trillion yen (US$184 billion) into money markets Monday to stem worries about the world’s third-largest economy.

Stocks fell Monday on the first business day after the disasters. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average shed nearly 634 points, or 6.2 percent, to 9,620.49, extending losses from Friday. Escalating concerns over the fallout of the disaster triggered a plunge that hit all sectors. The broader Topix index lost 7.5 percent.

Japan’s economy has been ailing for 20 years, barely managing to eke out weak growth between slowdowns. It is saddled by a massive public debt that, at 200 percent of gross domestic product, is the biggest among industrialized nations.

Preliminary estimates put repair costs from the earthquake and tsunami in the tens of billions of dollars — a huge blow for an already fragile economy that lost its place as the world’s No. 2 to China last year.

THE GATHERING STORM

“Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed, if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not so costly, you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance for survival. There may be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no chance of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.” – Winston Churchill – The Second World War

A butterfly flapped its wings in Tunisia creating a hurricane that is swirling across the globe, wreaking havoc with the existing social order and sweeping away old crumbling institutions and dictatorships. The linear thinking politicians, pundits and thought leaders have been knocked for a loop. They didn’t see it coming and they don’t know where it’s leading. An examination and understanding of history would have revealed that we have been here before. We were here in 1773. We were here in 1860. We were here in 1929. We are here again. The Fourth Turning has returned in its predictable cycle, just as Winter always follows Fall.

Winston Churchill wrote the definitive history of World War II in 1948. His six volume history detailed the years from the end of World War I through the unconditional surrender of the Axis powers in 1945. Volume I in the series was The Gathering Storm. It covered the second half of the Unraveling and the first ten years of the last Fourth Turning Crisis period. The title fits perfectly with the mood and inevitability of what was destined to occur. All Fourth Turnings resemble Winter, with bitter cold options, biting winds of change, dark days, and destructive storms. The seasons cannot be averted. The Seasons of a year are predictable, as are the seasons of a human life. We’ve entered the Crisis (Winter) season of the latest Saeculum that began in 1946 and will climax sometime around 2025.

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The generations are aligned in such a way that an event, incident, or individual action that may have been disregarded or ignored ten years ago will now trigger a worldwide conflagration. The Boston Massacre occurred in1770 during Revolutionary Saeculum. Five colonists were slaughtered by British troops. The mood of the generations was not ready for a Crisis. It wasn’t until three years later that the Boston Tea Party ignited a spark that started a revolution. John Brown’s raid on Harper’s Ferry in 1859 was intended to start a revolution. The populace was not ready. One year later, the election of Abraham Lincoln lit the fuse on the most horrific war in modern history. America experienced a sharp depression in 1920-1921. The country did not spiral into a decade long downturn, culminating in a World War that killed 65 million people. The generational dynamic was not aligned in a way that would lead to that outcome. Instead, the roaring twenties commenced. On December 17, 2010 a man committed a seemingly inconsequential act that has ignited a worldwide firestorm.

The spark that has enflamed the planet was struck by a 26-year-old Tunisian with a computer science degree named Mohamed Bouazizi, who unable to feed his family, was not allowed by his government to even get a permit to sell vegetables. Bouazizi publicly doused himself with gasoline, lit a match, and burnt not only his own body, but enflamed the consciousness of a world, and its inhabitants, being obliterated by the corrupt wealthy elites who rule the planet. In less than a month the brush fire started by this 26-year-old Tunisian had incinerated the despotic government of his country and forced its “president-for-life”, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to flee the country. The people’s coup in Tunisia, called the Jasmine Revolution, has sent shockwaves across the globe, spreading wildfires of freedom throughout the Arab world. The firestorm started by Bouazizi has brought down Mubarak in Egypt and is lapping at the heals of Gaddafi in Libya. Tyrants throughout the world are quivering with fear. The mood of the people across the globe has turned dark and angry. The political class and media are persistently surprised by the reaction of citizens to events during the Fourth Turning.

Historians William Strauss and Neil Howe documented their generational theory in the 1997 book The Fourth Turning. People who prefer blind ideology and believe human existence is a straight line of progress scorn their work as fantasy and pure prophecy. So called progressives misrepresent the theory as predicting the future because they refuse to accept the fact that large groups of human beings of a similar age and having common experiences react in similar predictable ways. It irritates those with an unwavering belief in human individuality. They prefer to ignore the numerous example of mass hysteria throughout history. In just the last 10 years we have experienced an internet boom and a housing boom that convinced millions of Americans to act simultaneously in a foolish manner . The theory is so logical and measurable that even the most vacuous blond bubble head on Fox News should understand it.

Strauss & Howe have been able to break Anglo-American history into 80 to 100 year (a long human life) Saeculums going back to 1435. Each Saeculum has four generations at different stages of their lives. A turning is an era with a characteristic social mood, a new twist on how people feel about themselves and their nation. It results from the aging of the generational constellation. A society enters a turning once every twenty years or so, when all living generations begin to enter their next phases of life. Like archetypes and constellations, turnings come four to a saeculum, and always in the same order. In 1997, Strauss & Howe knew when the next Fourth Turning would begin:

The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

They did not predict events that would ignite the next Fourth Turning. It was how the generations reacted to the events that mattered. The generational constellation is now in the once every 80 year alignment that will lead to chaos, violent change, the sweeping away of the existing social order, and likely war. Strauss & Howe answered why this would happen fourteen years ago:

“What will propel these events? As the saeculum turns, each of today’s generations will enter a new phase of life, producing a Crisis constellation of Boomer elders, midlife 13ers, young adult Millennials, and children from the new Silent Generation. As each archetype asserts its new social role, American society will reach its peak of potency. The natural order givers will be elder Prophets, the natural order takers young Heroes. The no-nonsense bosses will be midlife Nomads, the sensitive souls the child Artists. No archetypal constellation can match the gravitational power of this one – nor its power to congeal the natural dynamic of human history into new civic purposes. And none can match its potential power to condense countless arguments, anxieties, cynicisms, and pessimisms into one apocalyptic storm.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I believe my generation is about to experience a rendezvous with destiny. Each generation’s life experiences have prepared them for this hour and the trials that await them. The mood of the country has shifted darkly into a crisis mode. The mainstream media pundits and progressive politicians try to put a positive spin on today’s events, when anyone with the ability to think can see that things will get severely worse in the next ten years. Trust in our institutions, politicians, corporate leaders, media and social order is disintegrating.

It’s a Matter of Trust

“An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details, which the catalyst will juxtapose and connect in some unknowable way. If foreign societies are also entering a Fourth Turning, this could accelerate the chain reaction.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The initial spark that ignited this Fourth Turning was the collapse of the housing market, which began in 2005 and continues today. Home prices collapsed, the fraudulent mortgage loans blew up in the faces of the Wall Street banks that birthed them, and millions of delusional Americans lost their houses in foreclosure. The cascading impact of this implosion brought the American empire of debt to its knees. On September 18, 2008 the U.S. financial system came within hours of complete collapse, as described by Congressman Paul Kanjorski on CPAN:

“On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn’t be further panic out there.

If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it.”

The implosion of the financial system was created by the actions of the Wall Street financers that have been looting the country for decades. They created mortgage products (no doc, liar loans, Alt-A, negative amortization) designed to encourage people to commit fraud. They purposely promoted this massive fraud because they had perfected the art of derivatives. The issuers of these fraudulent mortgages bore none of the risk from their guaranteed default. They packaged them into MBOs and MBSs, bought AAA ratings from Moodys, and shilled them to pension managers, insurance companies, municipalities, states, and little old ladies. Then they bet against their own products with credit default swaps. Their greed and avarice was so extreme, they leveraged their own balance sheets 40 to 1 and then bought their own toxic waste. When their MBA created models proved to be defective, the entire house of cards collapsed. Strauss and Howe anticipated a financial catalyst related to immense levels of debt would trigger the next Fourth Turning:

It is unlikely that the catalyst will worsen into a full-fledged catastrophe, since the nation will probably find a way to avert the initial danger and stabilize the situation for a while.

After the near collapse of the financial system in September 2008, the authorities took unprecedented actions to avert a Second Great Depression. Henry Paulson, the Goldman Sachs U.S. Treasury Secretary, who had warned his own staff that a Wall Street derivative disaster would happen, immediately reacted like a former Wall Street CEO. He convinced his Harvard MBA boss, George W. Bush, that the only way to save the country was to fork over $700 billion to the Wall Street banks that created the manmade disaster. When Congress initially voted down this banker bribe, Wall Street showed who was boss by crashing the market by 777 points in one day. The bought off politicians in Washington DC then towed the line and passed TARP.

The two and one half years since September 2008 have set the stage for a far worse catastrophe. The Obama administration jammed an $800 billion pork filled stimulus bill down the throats of America, along with home buyer tax credits, loan modification programs, and a healthcare plan that will crush small businesses. The politicians, government bureaucrats, and mainstream media corporate mouthpieces proclaim that their wise and prompt actions averted a Second Great Depression. The government solutions used to “stabilize” the situation have wrought unintended consequences and planted the seeds of further pain and suffering to come. A summary of what has happened in the last few years is in order:

On September 18, 2008 the National Debt stood at $9.66 trillion. Today it stands at $14.16 trillion, a 47% increase in 2 1/2 years.
The country is running $1.5 trillion annual deficits and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
The States are running cumulative budget deficits of $130 billion in FY11 and expect deficits of $112 billion in FY12. This is leading to conflicts with unions, higher taxes and mass layoffs of government workers.
The working age population has risen by 5 million, while the number of employed Americans has declined by 6.5 million. The true unemployment rate http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts has risen from 12% to 22%.
In September 2008 there were 30.8 million Americans on food stamps. Today there are 44 million Americans on food stamps (14% of the U.S. population), a 43% increase in 2 1/2 years. The annual cost has risen by $37 billion, a 100% increase in 2 1/2 years.
Real inflation http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts bottomed at 5% in early 2009, but has accelerated to 9% today, with further increases baked in the cake.
Gasoline prices bottomed out at $1.61 per gallon in January 2009 and have risen to $3.54 per gallon today, a 120% increase in just over two years.
Households have lost $6.3 trillion of real estate related wealth since the peak of the housing market. Home prices have fallen for six straight months.
Almost 3 million homes have been lost to foreclosure since 2007.
There are 11.1 million households, or 23.1% of all mortgaged homes, underwater on their mortgages today, with rates above 50% in Nevada, Arizona, California, and Michigan.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taken over by the US government and have lost $170 billion of taxpayer funds so far. Losses are expected to reach $400 billion. Along with the FHA, they continue to prop up a dead housing market with more bad loans.
The Federal Reserve balance sheet in September 2008 consisted of $895 billion of US Treasury bonds. Today it totals $2.55 trillion of toxic mortgages bought from Wall Street banks and Treasury bonds being bought under QE2.
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury Dept. intimidated the FASB into allowing Wall Street banks to account for worthless mortgage and real estate loans as fully collectible. Magically, insolvent banks became solvent – on paper.
The Dow Jones was 11,700 in late August 2008 and today stands at 12,000. The Dow has risen 84% from its March 2009 low. The top 1% wealthiest Americans own 40% of all the stocks in America, so they are feeling much better.
In late 2007, a risk averse senior citizen could get a 5% return on a 6 month CD. Today, after two years of no increases in their Social Security payments, a senior citizen can “earn” .38% on a 6 month CD.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0% in order to allow the Wall Street banks to borrow for free and earn billions without risk.
Over 300 smaller banks have been closed by the FDIC, with losses exceeding $50 billion. There are another 900 banks on the verge of insolvency, with estimated future losses of $100 billion.
The Federal Reserve initiated QE2 in November 2010, purchasing $70 billion per month of Treasury bonds and attempting to create a stock market rally. They have succeeded in creating a tsunami of energy, food, and commodity price inflation across the globe, sparking revolutions among the desperately poor in the Middle East.
Wall Street banks “earned” record profits of $19 billion in 2010 after nearly destroying the worldwide financial system in 2008 and raping the American taxpayer in 2009.
No Wall Street executive has been prosecuted for the fraudulent actions committed by their banks.
Wall Street banks handed out $43.3 billion in bonuses in 2009/2010 for a job well done. The average Wall Street employee received a $128,000 bonus in 2010. In 2008, the year they crashed the financial system, they still doled out $17.6 billion in bonuses.
The median household income in 2007 was $52,163. Today the median household income is $46,326, an 11% decline in three years. Real average weekly earnings are lower today than they were in 1971.

It is clear from the list above that the oligarchic players that wield the power in this country have chosen to prop up their tottering structure of debt-created-wealth on the backs of the working middle class. The people who have been screwed and continue to be screwed are growing angry and distrustful, as anticipated by Strauss & Howe:

“But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities – and vice versa.”

The continuing foreclosure crisis has proven that the financial industry’s sole purpose in creating subprime loans, liar loans, Alt-A loans and packaging them into tranches with fake AAA ratings to be sold off to whatever sucker they could find was to enrich themselves with no care about the future consequences. The owners of the debt can’t prove they own the debt. Lawsuits clog up the court system. Deadbeats occupy houses for longer than two years without making a mortgage payment. Wall Street has created so many complex confusing financial products in their greedy thirst for fees that Harvard MBAs can’t even figure out the mess they have created. The $1.4 quadrillion of outstanding derivatives is truly a weapon of mass worldwide destruction waiting to be triggered. The fraudulent actions of Wall Street, the lies told to the American people by government bureaucrats about the solutions needed, the overstep and obfuscation committed by Ben Bernanke, and the propaganda fed to the masses by the corporate mainstream have destroyed the remaining trust in our institutions. Distrust grows by the day, as Strauss and Howe foresaw in 1997:

“As the Crisis catalyzes, these fears will rush to the surface, jagged and exposed. Distrustful of some things, individuals will feel that their survival requires them to distrust more things. This behavior could cascade into a sudden downward spiral, an implosion of societal trust.”

The growing distrust of financial and governmental institutions was reflected in the angry and sometimes violent town hall meetings with Congressmen during the healthcare debate. An angry on-air rant by financial reporter Rick Santelli ignited the Tea Party movement that eventually swept dozens of candidates into office in a Republican landslide in the 2010 mid-term elections. Societal trust in promises made by politicians is ripping apart. The entitlement benefit promises can’t be kept. Senior citizen and government union beneficiaries are angry. Younger generations don’t want to be left with debt so older generations can have comfortable 25 year retirements. Taxpayers don’t want to pay higher taxes to support gold plated healthcare and pension plans for government union workers. The decades of compromise, denial, apathy and lethargy are over. The mood of the country has changed dramatically. Survival of the country is at stake.

Volcanic Eruption

“America’s short-term Crisis psychology will catch up to the long-term post-Unraveling fundamentals. This might result in a Great Devaluation, a severe drop in the market price of most financial and real assets. This devaluation could be a short but horrific panic, a free-falling price in a market with no buyers. Or it could be a series of downward ratchets linked to political events that sequentially knock the supports out from under the residual popular trust in the system. As assets devalue, trust will further disintegrate, which will cause assets to devalue further, and so on. Every slide in asset prices, employment, and production will give every generation cause to grow more alarmed. With savings worth less, the new elders will become more dependent on government, just as government becomes less able to pay benefits to them.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The country has withstood the initial onslaught of this latest Fourth Turning. The Great Devaluation resulted in a 50% stock market crash and a 30% decline in home values. Rather than allowing home values to fall to their fair value, the government used tax credits and loan modification programs to prop up home prices. Rather than liquidating insolvent Wall Street banks in an orderly bankruptcy, the government and Federal Reserve chose to use accounting gimmicks and borrowed taxpayer funds to save those who had taken excessive risks and reaped hundreds of billions in profits. The government has systematically “adjusted” every economic statistic in order to paint the most optimistic view possible. Unemployment, inflation, government debt, and GDP are all manipulated in the most positive light.

Many people understand that you cannot solve a debt problem by issuing more debt. They understand that politicians have overpromised Social Security and Medicare benefits to the tune of $100 trillion. They understand that if you cover 30 million more people in your healthcare system, it will cost hundreds of billions more. They understand that mega-corporations have shipped their manufacturing jobs overseas, and they aren’t coming back. They understand spending $800 billion per year, policing the world, fighting two wars of choice, with hundreds of military bases across the globe is unsustainable. They understand that running $1.5 trillion deficits will eventually result in a collapse of the U.S. dollar. They understand that an individual or a country cannot borrow their way to prosperity. The U.S. government is essentially bankrupt and dependent upon Ben Bernanke’s printing press to keep up the appearance of solvency.

Fingers of tension and instability run through every aspect of American society. Pressure is building beneath the surface. The last year and a half have proven to be a liquidity driven lull. The appearance of stability does not mean our situation has stabilized. The actions of those in power have created a vastly more dangerous scenario for the next decade. The volcano is erupting and the lava is flowing along the channels of distress, as described by Strauss & Howe:

Imagine some national (and probably global) volcanic eruption, initially flowing along channels of distress that were created during the Unraveling era and further widened by the catalyst. Trying to foresee where the eruption will go once it bursts free of the channels is like trying to predict the exact fault line of an earthquake. All you know in advance is something about the molten ingredients of the climax, which could include the following:

Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities
Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, one-party hegemony, major constitutional change, secessionism, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction

Strauss & Howe did not predict specific events that would occur during the next Fourth Turning. As trained historians and economists, they simply analyzed the environment created by our leaders over the last few decades. If the thought leaders in the country had not been blinded by their ideological biases, they would have seen that the next Fourth Turning Crisis would be channeled by un-payable debt obligations, reckless financial schemes, religious ideology, political corruption, class warfare, foreign conflicts, and terrorism. The molten ingredients are travelling along the channels outlined above. What happens next is anybody’s guess.

The economic distress worsens for the average American every day. The recovery propaganda circulated by the power elite through the mass media is a fraud. Only those with wealth and power have recovered. The middle class sinks further into poverty and despair. Unemployment remains at Depression levels and the entire economic faux recovery rests with Ben Bernanke’s printing press. The only question that remains is whether the United States experiences a deflationary collapse or a hyper-inflationary collapse. The country is currently experiencing stagflation as the things we need (energy, food, clothing) inflate, while wages stagnate and our home values deflate. Bernanke and his minions at the Federal Reserve will choose inflation as their poison because it will allow their banker masters to pilage the remaining wealth of the middle class before the final collapse of the U.S. dollar.

Social distress has manifested itself over the last year in Arizona as the illegal immigration issue has turned violent, with State government and Federal government in conflict. The social welfare net is being strained through the payment of billions in unemployment compensation, food stamps, and other welfare programs. When this net breaks, all hell will break loose in the decaying urban Mecca’s. Political distress is at historic levels as the Tea Party battles liberals and its own neo-con Republican establishment. States are refusing to implement the Federally mandated Obamacare. Governors are battling teacher’s unions, firemen unions, and police unions in an effort to regain control of their out of control budgets. The 2012 elections could prove to be a tipping point for the country.

Military distress is already extreme, even before a major conflict is thrust upon the country. The two wars of choice in the Middle East have drained trillions from the treasury of a declining empire. The all volunteer military has been stretched to the breaking point. The multi-billion dollar high tech weaponry has proven useless against “terrorists” who fade into mountains until they can strike again. As revolution erupts across the Middle East, the U.S. is helpless and has no credibility, as they have propped up the thugs and dictators who are slaughtering their people. The daily intensification of volcanic eruptions across the globe is clearly evident to all but the most linear thinkers. We’ve entered the Fourth Turning and there is no turning back.

Prophecy or Destiny

“Soon after the catalyst, a national election will produce a sweeping political realignment, as one faction or coalition capitalizes on a new public demand for decisive action. Republicans, Democrats, or perhaps a new party will decisively win the long partisan tug of war. This new regime will enthrone itself for the duration of the Crisis. Regardless of its ideology, that new leadership will assert public authority and demand private sacrifice. Eventually, all of America’s lesser problems will combine into one giant problem. The very survival of the society will feel at stake, as leaders lead and people follow. The emergent society may be something better, a nation that sustains its Framers’ visions with a robust new pride. Or it may be something unspeakably worse. The Fourth Turning will be a time of glory or ruin.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

The election of Barack Obama in 2008 did not usher in a sweeping political realignment of the country. The actions he has taken in the last two years have maintained the status quo. The financial industry complex, military industrial complex, and big pharma complex are stronger and more powerful today than they were in 2008. The 2010 midterm elections were a decisive rejection of Obama’s policies. Those who think he will be re-elected in 2012 are not seeing the big picture. Previous Fourth Turnings have ushered in strong dominating Prophet (Boomer) leaders who used any means necessary to bring the country through the Crisis. Wishy washy politically calculating compromiser leaders do not cut it during a time of intense Crisis. The number of vulnerable Democratic Senators up for re-election in 2012 virtually insures that Republicans will control both houses of Congress in 2012. A legitimate 3rd Party candidate does not appear to be on the horizon. The onset of phase two of the economic meltdown will determine the next President of the United States.

Before the 2012 elections, I expect a violent downturn in our economic fortunes spurred by a continued fall in real estate values, generating more debt losses for the financial industry, and a loss of confidence in the U.S. fiat currency, as our foreign creditors balk at lending more money to an already insolvent empire that is incapable of taking corrective budgetary actions. The resulting economic turmoil, crashing stock market, rising interest rates, and massive unemployment will lead the nation to seek a strong, decisive, authoritative leader who will boldly lead the country through the remainder of the Crisis. Will it be Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Chris Christie, or a Lincoln like figure who hasn’t even entered the national stage yet? This question is unanswerable today. But, the country will turn to someone with answers. Strauss and Howe clearly state how important the next 10 to 15 years will be:

“Decisive events will occur – events so vast, powerful, and unique that they lie beyond today’s wildest hypotheses. These events will inspire great documents and speeches, visions of a new political order being framed. People will discover a hitherto unimagined capacity to fight and die, and to let their children fight and die, for a communal cause. The Spirit of America will return, because there will be no other choice. Thus will Americans reenact the great ancient myth of the ekpyrosis. Thus will we achieve our next rendezvous with destiny.”

I’m convinced that decisive events will transpire over the next decade that will push our country to the brink. The country is on an unsustainable path and we will either crash and burn or take the actions needed to avert catastrophe. Vast powerful events on an incomprehensible scale await. Events as farfetched as a Weimar like hyperinflationary economic collapse, the detonation of a nuclear bomb in a major American city, the secession of one or more States from the Union, the collapse of our oil based economy due to peak oil and/or revolution and turmoil in the Middle East, or a worldwide pandemic, will become not only realistic, but probable. Are these events any more improbable than a 9.0 earthquake, leading to a 33 foot high tsunami wave, which triggers nuclear meltdowns at two separate nuclear power plants? If you had outlined that scenario a week ago, you would have been classified as a crazy prophet of doom.

At this point in time, it doesn’t seem possible that a communal cause could rejuvenate the Spirit of America in a manner that would lead me to be willing to fight and die or send my three sons to fight and die. An imminent threat, such as the Axis Powers during World War II, the North and South seeing each other as a threat during the Civil War, or the threat from a foreign empire during the American Revolution, does not appear evident today. The war on terror is a concept, rather than a real war. The absence of a known foreign adversary makes me think that the conflict could center on our own soil between Americans. Strauss and Howe point out that history does not offer much hope in avoiding armed conflict during this Fourth Turning:

“History offers even more sobering warnings: Armed confrontation usually occurs around the climax of Crisis. If there is confrontation, it is likely to lead to war. This could be any kind of war – class war, sectional war, war against global anarchists or terrorists, or superpower war. If there is war, it is likely to culminate in total war, fought until the losing side has been rendered nil – its will broken, territory taken, and leaders captured.”

When it comes to what kind of armed confrontation, how about all of the above? The wealth distribution of the country is more heavily skewed to the “Haves” versus the “Have Nots” than any time in history. The austerity measures that are being proposed on the backs of the middle class and senior citizens, while ultra-rich bankers have been bailed out and allowed to continue pillaging the countryside, will surely lead to class conflict. Generational warfare between the Boomers who want what they are “owed” and younger generations stuck with the bill will flare up in the coming years. The country has become so ideological that it can be easily split into Red States and Blue States. Could this ideological divide result in the country splitting into two or three independent countries? Would the Federal government use the armed forces to maintain one country? It happened before.

The war on terror concept has been in place for the last ten years and has resulted in draining the Treasury of trillions, exhausting our limited volunteer forces, and creating more terrorists than existed on September 10, 2001. The revolutions sweeping across Northern Africa and the Middle East are not cause for celebration in Washington DC. American foreign policy has centered on supporting thugs, despots, and dictators across this region with financial aid and weapons. The aid was absconded and sent to bank vaults in Switzerland. The weapons are being used to kill the poor revolutionaries across the region. Two American backed dictators have been deposed thus far, with Yemen likely to follow. Our allies in the region are falling with lightening speed. The loss of Saudi Arabia would portend dire consequences for the U.S. If the Middle East oil spigot is turned off, the American way of life will wither and die.

The myth of American Exceptionalism will not protect the country from the revolutionary tsunami that is sweeping the globe. America was not chosen by God as the country that would lead the world for eternity. The hubris and overreach of the American empire has bankrupted the nation. Greed, corruption and arrogance are not limited to North African dictatorships. Crony capitalism supporting a vast military empire, financed by a banker controlled Federal Reserve has failed. Its failure will become clear as the Fourth Turning intensifies and sweeps away the old order. Who or what replaces the old order is unknown. Much will depend on the generations and their response to the Crisis.

Bad Moon Rising

Robert Strauss and Neil Howe had no interest in trying to predict the future. As historians, they wanted to understand how the past could give clues to what would happen in the future. They discovered a pattern of behavior by generational archetypes across centuries of Anglo-American history. They identified the issues that would drive the next Fourth Turning. They predicted the timing. The accuracy of their prophecy thus far, has been uncanny. The rhythms of history continue. The outcome of this Crisis is unknowable, but there is most certainly a bad moon rising.

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse – or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension. – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning

I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightning.
I see bad times today.

Don’t go around tonight,
Well, it’s bound to take your life,
There’s a bad moon on the rise.

I hear hurricanes ablowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.

Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we’re in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.

Credence Clearwater Revival – Bad Moon Rising

ONCE IN A LIFETIME

Guess who I was listening to on the way to work today? I’ve been working on a Fourth Turning related article for the last two weeks on and off. I’m desperately trying to connect the dots to give some indication of what will happen in the next ten years. I’m trying to keep the big picture in view. The day to day distractions are unimportant. During a Fourth Turning, the specific events are not as important as people’s reaction to the events. My article is about 50% complete and I’ll have it done by Sunday, but in the space of two weeks the world situation has deteriorated rapidly. The Middle East is ablaze in revolution. Tensions are rising all over the globe. European countries are teetering on the brink of insolvency. Energy and food prices are skyrocketing. The worst earthquake in a century struck Japan this morning. The US economic system rests solely on the printing press of the Federal Reserve.

The MSM and myopic politicians are focused on the next election cycle, gay marriage, union protests in Wisconsin and American Idol. The world is changing. The old order is being swept away. Winter has descended on the world. There are bitter times ahead. You must keep the big picture in view. We are in the midst of a Fourth Turning that will not end until 2025. Buckle up.

A Fourth Turning only happens Once in a Lifetime for a person who lives a normal 80 year life. That is why I think the Talking Heads tune – Once in a Lifetime is appropriate today.

Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

And you may find yourself living in a shotgun shack
And you may find yourself in another part of the world
And you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile
And you may find yourself in a beautiful house, with a beautiful
wife
And you may ask yourself-Well…How did I get here?Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

And you may ask yourself
How do I work this?
And you may ask yourself
Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful house!
And you may tell yourself
This is not my beautiful wife!
Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

Water dissolving…and water removing
There is water at the bottom of the ocean
Carry the water at the bottom of the ocean
Remove the water at the bottom of the ocean!

Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/in the silent water
Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground.

Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?…Am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
MY GOD!…WHAT HAVE I DONE?Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/in the silent water
Under the rocks and stones/there is water underground.

Letting the days go by/let the water hold me down
Letting the days go by/water flowing underground
Into the blue again/after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.

Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…Same as it ever was…

Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime

BILLY’S STORY

BELOW IS BILLY’S STORY DIRECTLY FROM THE GRAND JURY REPORT. I COPIED IT FROM A PDF, SO THE FORMATING IS OFF.

OTHERS CAN WORRY ABOUT THE RIGHTS OF THE ACCUSED PRIESTS AND THE REPUTATION OF THE CATHOLIC CHURCH. I WORRY ABOUT THE CHILDREN.

This Grand Jury investigation began with the tearful testimony of “Billy.” Billy

was a 10-year-old student in Barbara Mosakowski’s fifth-grade class at St. Jerome

School in Philadelphia when two priests molested and orally sodomized him during the

1998-99 school year. Billy had signed up to be an altar boy at St. Jerome Church because his brother, who was three years older, had been one. He also participated in the“maintenance department” of the school’s bell choir, meaning that he took the bells out of their cases before choir practice and put them away at the end.

Rev. Charles Engelhardt abused Billy in the church sacristy after Mass.

Billy’s first uncomfortable encounter with a priest took place after he served an

early morning weekday Mass with Rev. Charles Engelhardt. While Billy was cleaning up

in the church sacristy, Father Engelhardt caught him drinking some of the leftover wine.

The priest did not scold the 10-year-old altar boy. Instead, he poured him more of the

sacramental wine and began asking him personal questions, such as whether he had a

girlfriend.

While discussing such matters, Father Engelhardt pulled pornographic magazines

out of a bag and showed them to Billy. He asked the boy how it made him feel to look at

pictures of naked men and women, and which he preferred. He also told Billy that it was

time for him to become a man, and that “sessions” with the priest would soon begin. With that enigmatic statement, Father Engelhardt let Billy go to school. At the time, the fifthgrader did not understand what the priest meant; he just put the episode in the back of his mind, and went about what he was doing.

About a week later, Billy served another early morning Mass with Father

Engelhardt. When they were in the church sacristy afterwards, the priest instructed Billy

to take off his clothes and sit on a chair next to him. As the boy nervously complied,

Father Engelhardt undressed himself, and then began to caress the 10-year-old’s legs.

He repeated to Billy that it was time for him “to become a man,” and proceeded, in Billy’s words, both “to jerk [Billy] off” and to perform oral sex on him.

At Father Engelhardt’s direction, Billy next fondled the priest’s genitals, and then

got on his knees and put the priest’s penis in his mouth. Father Engelhardt called Billy

“son,” and told him he was doing a good job as he instructed the boy to move his head

faster or slower. After ejaculating on Billy, Father Engelhardt told him he was

“dismissed.”

About two weeks later, Father Engelhardt asked him if he was ready for another

session, but Billy emphatically refused.

Rev. Edward V. Avery learned that Father Engelhardt had abused Billy, and then

did the same thing.

Father Engelhardt left Billy alone after his unsuccessful attempt to arrange a

repeat “session,” but the boy’s ordeal was far from over. A few months after the

encounter with Father Engelhardt, Billy was putting the bells away after choir practice

when Father Edward Avery pulled him aside to say that he had heard about Father

Engelhardt’s session with Billy, and that his sessions with the boy would soon begin.

Billy pretended he did not know what Father Avery was talking about, but his stomach

turned.

Soon after the warning, Billy served a Mass with Father Avery. When Mass was

ended, Father Avery took the fifth-grader into the sacristy, turned on music, and ordered

him to perform a “striptease” for him. Billy started to undress in a normal fashion, but

Father Avery was not satisfied and directed him to dance while he removed his clothes.

Father Avery sat and watched Billy with an “eerie smile” on his face, before

getting up and undressing himself. When they were both naked, the priest had the boy sit on his lap and kissed his neck and back, while saying to him that God loved him and

everything was okay.

Father Avery fondled Billy’s penis and scrotum, and then had Billy stand so that

he could perform oral sex on the boy. As the priest fellated the 10-year-old, he stuck his

finger in Billy’s anus, causing him to react in great pain.

After sucking on Billy’s penis for a while, Father Avery announced that it was

time for Billy to “do” him. He directed the 10-year-old to fondle his genitals and then put

the priest’s penis in his mouth and suck on his scrotum. The session ended when Father Avery ejaculated on Billy and told him to clean up. The priest told Billy that it had been a good session, and that they would have another again soon.

They did, a few weeks later, following an afternoon weekend Mass. As Billy was

cleaning a chalice, Father Avery again directed the 10-year-old to strip for him. When

Billy did as he was told, the priest fondled and fellated him again and, this time, licked

his anus. He made Billy “jerk him off” as he performed oral sex on the boy. After Father

Avery ejaculated, he left Billy in the sacristy.

From then on, Billy avoided serving Mass with Father Avery by trading

assignments with other altar boys. But, like many children who are sexually abused, he

was too frightened and filled with self-blame to report what had been done to him.

Sixth-grade teacher Bernard Shero raped Billy in the back seat of a car.

Billy had a slight break over the summer between fifth and sixth grades. He went

to the New Jersey Shore with his family and, for that period, did not have to serve Mass

with Father Engelhardt or Father Avery. But when he returned to school in the fall, he

found himself in the sixth-grade classroom of Bernard Shero. Shero, according to Billy,

was “kind of a creep.” He touched students when he talked to them, and would put his

arm around students and whisper in their ears. Billy testified that Shero’s conversations

with students were inappropriate, and that he would try to talk to Billy about intimate

things.

One day, Shero told Billy he would give him a ride home from school. But

instead of taking Billy straight home, he stopped at a park about a mile from the boy’s

house. When Billy asked why they were stopping, Shero answered, “We’re going to have some fun.” The teacher told Billy to get in the back seat of the car. He directed his

student to take his clothes off, but then became impatient and started helping Billy to

undress. Shero then fondled Billy’s genitals and orally and anally raped the now 11-year old boy. Shero was only able to get his penis part-way into Billy’s anus because the boy

screamed in pain. The teacher then had Billy perform the same acts on him. As Billy did

so, Shero kept saying, “It feels good.”

After raping Billy, Shero told him to get dressed. He then made the fifth-grader

walk the rest of the way home.

Billy suffered physical and emotional harm as a result of the abuse.

Although Billy was too frightened to directly report the abuse as a child, he

experienced otherwise unexplained physical problems that corroborated his testimony

before the Grand Jury. In the fifth grade, when Fathers Engelhardt and Avery were

having their “sessions” with him, Billy complained to his mother of pain in his testicles.

In the sixth grade, when Shero raped and orally sodomized him, he went through an

extended period when he would gag and vomit for no reason. His mother took him to

doctors for both conditions, but there was never a diagnosis. Billy’s mother turned over to the Grand Jurors her records of her visits to doctors with Billy.

Billy’s mother also told us of a dramatic change in her son’s personality that

coincided with the abuse. His friends and their parents also noticed this personality

change. Billy’s mother watched as her friendly, happy, sociable son turned into a lonely,

sullen boy. He no longer played sports or socialized with his friends. He separated

himself, and began to smoke marijuana at age 11. By the time Billy was in high school,

he was abusing prescription painkillers, and eventually he graduated to heroin.

It was at an inpatient drug treatment facility that Billy first told someone about his

abuse. Billy’s mother testified that she probably should have suspected something before then, because she found two books about sexual abuse hidden under Billy’s bed when he was in high school. She asked him about the books at the time, but he covered up for his abusers by telling her that he had them for a school assignment.

The Philadelphia Archdiocese had assigned Father Avery to St. Jerome even though Msgr. William Lynn, Cardinal Anthony J. Bevilacqua, and other high-ranking officials knew he had abused another boy and could not be trusted around adolescents.

In at least one instance, the blame for the abuse Billy suffered did not lie with the

perpetrators alone. The Secretary for Clergy, Monsignor William Lynn,1 who is now the

pastor at St. Joseph Church in Downingtown, had recommended Father Avery for

assignment to a parish with a school. He then failed to supervise or restrict his contact

with adolescents in any way. Msgr. Lynn did this even though he knew that Father Avery had sexually abused another boy and could not be trusted around children.

While we cannot know Msgr. Lynn’s motivation for this abhorrent decision to

allow a known child molester unfettered access to children whose parents had entrusted

them to the Archdiocese’s care, we know that it gravely endangered the welfare of the

parish children – a danger that was tragically realized in Billy’s case.

Seven years before Father Avery abused Billy, the Archdiocese learned he had

abused someone else.

Seven years before Father Avery abused Billy, Msgr. Lynn, Cardinal Anthony J.

Bevilacqua, and other Archdiocese officials learned that the priest had molested another

altar boy. “James” was a 29-year-old medical student, with a wife and child, when he

wrote to the Archdiocese in the spring of 1992 to report that Father Avery had abused

him in the 1970s and 1980s. He enclosed a copy of a letter that he had just sent to Father Avery, in which he told the abusive priest:

I’ve been carrying a burden for all these years that is not justly mine to

bear. . . . It all began when I was a young boy and you came to my church.

I thought you were funny and you let me help you at dances and other

functions. You made me feel valued, included, and special. I trusted,

respected, and loved you, and you taught me many things about

construction, driving, and gave me my first beer. I truly believed you had

my best interest at heart, that you cared about me in a fatherly way.

Then one night after I had helped you at a dance and had quite a lot to

drink I awoke to find your hand on my crotch. I was terrified. . . .

I’ve never told you until now because I’ve been afraid and I’ve always

blamed myself for what happened. I always thought there was something I

did or said or a way I acted that made you think it was alright to do what

you did. I would think that you’ve been such a good friend to me that

maybe these activities were alright.

I knew one thing, I didn’t want you to touch me that way and I didn’t want

sex with you or any other man. I was determined after that night that I

would never be hurt by you again. I would always be safe from that kind

of intrusion. I became distant and depressed, my ability to trust men

shattered. I am only now undergoing the long recovery process from

wounds I suffered at your hands. I have let too much of my life be

controlled by this terrible wrong you committed.

YOU HAD NO RIGHT TO HURT ME THE WAY YOU DID.

YOU HAVE NO RIGHT TO HURT ANYONE ELSE THIS WAY.

I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT YOU DID TO ME.

ALL THE RESPONSIBILITY IN THIS MATTER IS YOURS.

I WILL NO LONGER CARRY THIS BURDEN FOR YOU.

MY ONLY RESPONSIBILITY IS TO GOD, MYSELF, AND FAMILY.

James told the Archdiocese that he sought neither money nor scandal. He merely wanted to make sure that Father Avery was not still a threat to others.

On September 28, 1992, Msgr. Lynn and his assistant, Father Joseph R. Cistone,

who is now the Bishop of Saginaw, Michigan, interviewed James. James told them that

he had met Father Avery in 1976, when he was an altar boy and the priest was assistant pastor at Saint Philip Neri Parish in East Greenville. Father Avery would take James and other altar boys to his beach house in North Wildwood and give them alcohol. Father Avery gave James his first drink at age 12.

James told Msgr. Lynn and Father Cistone that Father Avery first touched him on

an overnight with a group of altar boys at the priest’s house on the Jersey Shore. Father

Avery had entered the loft where the boys were sleeping, and had “wrestled” with them

and “tickled” them. Several times, Father Avery put his hand on the boy’s crotch.

In September 1978, Father Avery was transferred abruptly to Saint Agatha-Saint

James Parish. James’s mother, Mary, described how, “One Sunday Father Avery was

saying Mass and that Wednesday he was gone, transferred for some unknown reason.”

After his transfer, Father Avery, who moonlighted as a disc jockey at bars,

weddings, and parties, continued to invite James to assist him on disc jockey jobs.

During James’s freshman year in high school, he took the boy to Smokey Joe’s, a bar on the University of Pennsylvania campus. There, the boy and the priest were served large amounts of alcohol. James told Msgr. Lynn that the priest took him back to his rectory for the night. When the then-15-year-old awoke, he was in Father Avery’s bed with the priest, and Father Avery had his hand on James’s genitals.

James related to Msgr. Lynn a similar incident that occurred on a ski trip to

Vermont when James was 18 years old. Again, Father Avery slept in the same bed with

James and fondled the boy’s genitals.

Msgr. Lynn and Father Cistone next interviewed Father Avery, who told them

that he was drunk the night of the Smokey Joe’s incident – as was the 15-year-old – and did not recall much. He acknowledged that it “could be” that he did what was alleged, but claimed that he could not remember. He told Msgr. Lynn that if he touched James in Vermont while sleeping in the same bed, it was “strictly accidental.” He would later admit to a District Attorney’s Office detective, however, that he did fondle James’s

genitals on the Vermont trip.

Father Avery also informed Msgr. Lynn in 1992 that he had adopted six Hmong

children – three girls and three boys. Archdiocese officials did nothing over the years to

investigate the welfare or safety of these children entrusted to the accused child molester.

Msgr. Lynn summarized his interviews with James and Father Avery in a memo

to Cardinal Bevilacqua and, according to procedure, recommended that Father Avery be sent for evaluation at Saint John Vianney Hospital, an Archdiocese hospital in

Downingtown. The Cardinal approved the recommendation in late 1992.

Father Avery was evaluated and treated at an Archdiocese hospital; even it

recommended that any future ministry by the priest not include adolescents.

After four days of evaluation from November 30 through December 3, 1992, the

Anodos Center, a part of Saint John Vianney Hospital in which sexual offenders in the

clergy are evaluated and treated, recommended in-patient treatment for Father Avery.

Msgr. Lynn reported to Cardinal Bevilacqua that the center had found Father Avery’s

account of his involvement with James vague and inconsistent, that he seemed to have a mood disorder, and that he likely abused alcohol.

On December 15, 1992, the Cardinal, who had allowed Father Avery to remain

the active pastor of a parish for ten and a half months after James reported the sexual

abuse to the Archdiocese, approved the recommendation for in-patient treatment at the

Anodos Center.

After Father Avery spent six months at Saint John Vianney, during which time

James came to the hospital to confront the priest, it was determined that treatment should continue. Msgr. Lynn’s memos to the file, which up to that point had thoroughly

documented the relevant facts and all the recommendations that he had provided to the

Cardinal, became sparse.

The Archdiocese maintains what it calls “secret archive files,” which should

include all information relating to complaints against priests, such as those involving

sexual abuse of minors. This file for Father Avery contained only a few scrawled notes in Msgr. Lynn’s handwriting from the time the priest was at St. John Vianney. The notes

stated that treatment is to be continued; that Avery “got into shame” after meeting with

James at the treatment center; that the priest was “in denial;” that there was a question of whether there were other victims; and that Father Avery was “upset” and “angry.”

The next memo in the secret archive file, dated August 24, 1993, was written by

Msgr. Edward P. Cullen, the Cardinal’s number two man and the vicar for administration, who went on to become the Bishop of the Allentown Archdiocese. In this memo, Msgr. Cullen passed along Cardinal Bevilacqua’s instructions to Msgr. Lynn. The Cardinal wanted his Secretary for Clergy to falsely explain Father Avery’s resignation to his parish as a matter of health, rather than inform parishioners of the truth – that the priest had molested at least one altar boy, and could not be trusted around adolescents.

Msgr. Cullen’s memo stated:

Cardinal Bevilacqua responded by saying that the Regional Vicar [Charles

Devlin] should handle this matter. Monsignor Devlin should note that

Father Avery resigned (if, in fact, you have his letter of resignation) and

that the fundamental reason for his resignation is related to his health.

Cardinal Bevilacqua further thought it would be helpful if Monsignor

Devlin had a letter from Father Avery . . . which would be addressed to the

parishioners thanking them for their support and indicating that his

decision to resign was essential for his health.

The next day, August 25, 1993, the Cardinal received Father Avery’s resignation

as pastor at St. Therese of the Child Jesus in Philadelphia. In his letter, the priest noted

that he had met with Msgr. Lynn, and he maintained the ruse that he was resigning

“because my present state of health needs more attention.”

In Cardinal Bevilacqua’s testimony before the previous grand jury, he tried to

explain this deception of parishioners by claiming that the mention of health referred to a bipolar condition and alcoholism. Saint John Vianney had, however, informed the

Archdiocese months before that Father Avery was “NOT bipolar.”

Msgr. Cullen testified before the previous grand jury that Cardinal Bevilacqua

was insistent, in all cases involving the sexual abuse of minors by priests, that

parishioners not be informed of the truth. In accordance with that policy, Msgr. Lynn lied

to a parishioner in a March 1993 letter, claiming that, while Father Avery was at Saint

John Vianney, “there have never been anything but compliments heard in this office

about Father Avery.” He wrote to another parishioner in July 1993 about the reason for

Father Avery’s absence: “Let me assure you that is what they are – rumors.” Msgr. Lynn

told that parishioner that Father Avery had requested a health leave.

Father Avery was discharged from Saint John Vianney on October 22, 1993. In a

memo to Msgr. James E. Molloy, then the assistant vicar for administration, Msgr. Lynn

listed the treatment center’s recommendations. These included “a ministry excluding

adolescents and with a population other than vulnerable minorities; a 12-step Alcoholics

Anonymous meeting for priests; and any further involvement with the Hmong be in an

administrative or pastoral capacity.” Saint John Vianney also advised that an aftercare

team was necessary to keep watch over Father Avery.

Despite the treatment center’s report, Msgr. Lynn concluded his memo by

recommending that Father Avery be assigned as an associate pastor at Our Lady of

Ransom, a parish in Philadelphia with an attached elementary school. Msgr. Molloy

forwarded Msgr. Lynn’s memo to Cardinal Bevilacqua.

Cardinal Bevilacqua assigned Father Avery to live at St. Jerome and allowed the

known abuser to perform Masses with altar boys.

Cardinal Bevilacqua followed Msgr. Lynn’s inexplicable recommendation to

assign Father Avery to reside at a Philadelphia parish with an attached elementary school, though the Cardinal chose Saint Jerome instead of Our Lady of Ransom. In a December 7, 1993, letter to Rev. Joseph B. Graham, the pastor at St. Jerome, Msgr. Lynn wrote that Father Avery had been asked to help in the parish as much as he was able. Msgr. Lynn did not mention in his letter that Father Avery’s interaction with children at St. Jerome should be restricted or supervised in any way.

Msgr. Lynn ignored repeated warnings that Father Avery was not complying with

supposed restrictions on his activities.

After assigning Father Avery to live at St. Jerome, a parish with an elementary

school, the Archdiocese hierarchy did virtually nothing to minimize the continued danger

that the priest posed to children. Archdiocese officials followed few, if any, of the

therapists’ recommendations.

Saint John Vianney personnel repeatedly told Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery’s

aftercare team was not in place and was not meeting as it should. In fact, the team that the Archdiocese supposedly relied on to supervise Father Avery (Father Joseph Sweeney, Father Graham, and Msgr. Lynn) did not meet for more than a year after the priest’s release from the treatment center. Father Graham, the pastor, denied even knowing he was on such a team.

A chaplain at the hospital, Father Michael Kerper, warned Msgr. Lynn frequently

that Father Avery was neglecting his duties and was instead booking numerous disc

jockey engagements. Msgr. Lynn’s notes record that even Father Graham called to

complain that Father Avery was doing too much disc jockeying.

In February 1995, Father Kerper took it upon himself to inform Msgr. Lynn that

Father Avery had booked party engagements for 25 of the next 31 Saturdays. Msgr. Lynn brushed off the Saint John Vianney chaplain and disregarded the implications of Father Avery’s access to young people – even though he knew these activities involved

precisely the kind of situations the priest had exploited to sexually molest James.

Msgr. Lynn and his colleagues also appear to have ignored Father Avery’s

continued involvement with the Hmong, despite Saint John Vianney’s explicit

recommendation to limit his contacts with that community. According to Cardinal

Bevilacqua, restrictions on an abusive priest’s ministry are normally documented in his

file. There is nothing, however, in Father Avery’s file to suggest that his access to the

Hmong children whom he adopted, or his non-pastoral relationships with the Hmong,

was ever restricted or even monitored.

Archdiocese documents indicate that, in 1996, Msgr. Lynn was aware that Father

Avery was still deeply involved with the Hmong community – three years after therapists

had urged that he be kept away from “vulnerable minorities.” There is no indication that

church officials ever checked on the welfare of Father Avery’s “adopted” children – even

though Msgr. Lynn and the Cardinal were the only people in a position to protect those

children, having concealed from the community that the man entrusted with their welfare

was an accused child molester.

Msgr. Lynn protected Cardinal Bevilacqua while endangering parish children.

Between 1994 and 2002, the only thing that concerned Msgr. Lynn sufficiently to

suggest a meeting with Father Avery was the priest’s repeated requests to attach Cardinal Bevilacqua’s signature to endorsements for various certifications and programs. The Cardinal did personally endorse Father Avery for certification by the National Association of Catholic Chaplains, which asked the Cardinal to vouch for the priest’s “high standards of professional competence and moral and ethical conduct.” But the next time such an endorsement was needed, Msgr. Lynn interceded to protect Cardinal Bevilacqua.

In September 1997, Msgr. Lynn met with Father Avery to tell him that the

Cardinal could not complete a questionnaire for his admittance to a doctoral program at

Chestnut Hill College, explaining that “Cardinal Bevilacqua must be careful as to what

kinds of endorsements he gives.” Msgr. Lynn was not, however, telling Father Avery that the Archdiocese would not vouch for his good character – only that the Cardinal’s name could no longer appear on written endorsements. Msgr. Lynn furnished the necessary character reference himself, citing honesty as one of Father Avery’s strengths, and Father Avery enrolled in the college program.

During the same September 1997 meeting with Father Avery, Msgr. Lynn told the

priest that he had received an e-mail from James. In fact, he had received the e-mail a

year earlier. In September 1996, James wrote:

What in the end happened to [Father Avery]. I’m not

asking for details. What I want to know is – is he

rehabilitated or in a situation where he can’t harm others?

Will the diocese vouch for the safety of its children? For

my peace of mind I have to know.

Msgr. Lynn wrote in his memo of the September 1997 meeting that he told Father Avery

that he had responded to James “that the Archdiocese had taken proper steps in the

matter, without stating where Father Avery was stationed.”

Msgr. Lynn continued that he told Father Avery “he should be more low-keyed

than he has been recently.” He then noted: “Father Avery, at first, did not seem to

understand what I was talking about, but after we had been talking for a while it finally

dawned on him what I was saying.”

Msgr. Lynn did not say in his memo what Father Avery had done recently to

prompt this warning. In fact, Msgr. Lynn’s obscure language, the pride he seemed to take

in relating to Father Avery that he had not told James that the priest was living in the

rectory of a parish with a school, and the warning to the sexual predator to be “lowkeyed” all seem like the product of someone trying to aid and abet an abuser in escaping detection. They are certainly not the product of someone trying to protect children from a predator in their midst.

In 1998, Msgr. Lynn wrote another memo to the file explaining why Cardinal

Bevilacqua could not recommend Father Avery as a chaplain to the Veteran’s Hospital.

The problem was that the Cardinal would have to write a letter saying there were no

allegations against Father Avery, which obviously was not true. Msgr. Lynn also wrote

that he still had “concern” about Father Avery because the priest “still seems to minimize his behavior.”

Again, Msgr. Lynn in the memo did not specify the “behavior” he was referring

to. In any case, Father Avery stayed at St. Jerome, serving Mass with children and

hearing their confessions. He also kept working as a disc jockey, because no one made

him stop. Msgr. Lynn wrote this memo a few months before Father Avery molested Billy.

The 1992 allegation against Father Avery was not officially deemed credible until

2003 – after a grand jury had launched an investigation.

In June 2002, 10 years after James first reported the abuse by Father Avery, he

called Msgr. Lynn in frustration. James told Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery was still

engaging in the same activities that led to his abuse. He informed Msgr. Lynn that Father Avery was working parties as a disc jockey, and expressed concern that the priest was around minors drinking alcohol. James told Msgr. Lynn he felt he was not being “heard as credible.” The victim offered more details of the priest’s past behavior with him and other boys, and he gave names of those who could corroborate his story.

James had explained to Archdiocese officials when he first came forward in 1992

that writing his letter confronting Father Avery was the most difficult thing he’d ever

done. He had been unable to do it for more than a decade. He expected that when he

finally mustered the courage to act he would find some resolution and be able to move

on. He had presumed the Archdiocese would act on his information to keep Father Avery away from other boys.

James told Msgr. Lynn that he wanted Father Avery to “own up” to what he had

done, and he wanted the Archdiocese to protect other children. Most of all, he said, he

wanted to know he was believed. Yet Msgr. Lynn refused to tell this 29-year-old victim,

who sought nothing but to place the responsibility for his molestation where it belonged,

and to protect other children from experiencing the same trauma, that he was believed.

Meanwhile, Father Avery continued to minister at St. Jerome. He testified before

the previous grand jury that he continued to celebrate Mass, with altar servers, usually

twice a weekend. He told the grand jury on April 25, 2003, that he was still permitted to

hear confessions of the grade-school children. He said he was never told to restrict his

activities with the children of the parish.

On June 2, 2003, a little over a month after Father Avery testified before the

grand jury, Cardinal Bevilacqua finally launched an investigation into the 1992

allegations. Following a review of the investigation by an Archdiocesan review board,

Cardinal Justin Rigali, who succeeded Cardinal Bevilacqua in 2003, found James’s

allegation “credible.” Cardinal Rigali removed Father Avery from all assignments and

prohibited him from performing public ministry on December 5, 2003. That was five

years too late to protect Billy – and who knows how many other children.

CATHOLIC CHURCH – LOOKING FOR A FEW GOOD MEN

Here we go again. I’ve documented repeatedly over the last year that I have been as good a Catholic as anyone. I went to Catholic school for 12 years. I never missed mass over the 1st 40 or so years of my life. Even when I was living away at college, I would walk 10 blocks from my house to the Catholic church at 38th and Chestnut every Saturday night to go to Mass. I’ve sent all three of my kids to Catholic school. I’ve donated thousands of dollars over my lifetime to the Catholic church.

But the unceasing revelations of priests fucking little boys and not being turned in to the police by the heirarchy of the Catholic Church has infuriated me. The Cardinals, Bishops, and Pastors in the Phila Archdiocese have known for decades about these evil boy raping priests. They shuffled them from parish to parish where they could prey on new 11 year old meat. They protected the church’s wealth, not the children. When confronted with accusations, the Cardinal’s first question was “Is the statute of limitations up?”. Sure sounded like he was looking out for the kids. They would secretly pay off families of victims without turning the evil priests in to the authorities.

There was a 2005 grand jury report about these terrible abuses and cover-ups in the Phila Archdisocese. The church responded by forming a commission to address the accusations by victims. A huge PR campaign was initiated by the church to make it appear they were taking actions to protect the children. This commission actually acted to find dirt on the victims in order to avoid paying compensation. The heirarchy continued to protect the boy fucking priests.

Last month, a new grand jury report revealed High level coverups in the Church and horrifically detailed the acts performed by these lowlife scum priests. A list of over 30 priests still in parishes around Phila was in the grand jury report. Yesterday, on Ash Wednesday, the church got around to suspending 21 priests. The Catholic church has not done this willingly or of their own volition. They have been dragged kicking and screaming the whole way. These priests would not have been suspended or turned into the police by the Cardinal, if the grand jury had not done their work.

I was not going to post anything about this until I opened my paper this morning and read the names on the list. We belonged to the St. Francis parish in Norristown for 5 years in the early 1990’s. There was a priest there that we loved. He had taught my wife at Bishop Kenrick high school and gave the best sermons I had ever heard. We would make sure we went to his Masses. I hadn’t come across another priest since who matched his ability to make a sermon relevant and interesting. His name is Father Logrip. He is on the list. He is at a local parish next to Lansdale high school. I can’t tell you how angry this makes me.

I’m done with the Catholic Church. When my mother heard that I had stopped going to church, she was outraged and was burning up the telephone lines to my sister. I was surely going to hell. We had a few really nasty telephone exchanges where I described what these priests had done. My mother is the ultimate Catholic. She follows all the rules. Never misses mass. In the last month, she has stopped putting money in the collection basket. She tells me how terrible the Catholic church heirarchy has become. My sister still goes to church, but hands in an empty envelope. It lets them know she is there, and it lets them know she is not happy. I watched the news last night and they interviewed the non-thinking delusional Catholics who refused to believe that their parish priest is on the list. Delusion abounds across the land.

THESE PRIESTS FUCKED & RAPED LITTLE HELPLESS BOYS. CARDINAL RIGALI AND THE REST OF HIS HENCHMEN HAVE COVERED UP THESE HEINOUS CRIMES. THOSE ARE THE FACTS. DEAL WITH IT YOU DELUSIONAL CATHOLICS.

The suspension of these priests is not even close to satisfying me. Until the heirarchy of the church is thrown in jail for their crimes, I will never give the Catholic Church a dime of my money or step foot in their churches. I do not need these men to have a relationship with my God.