This week is going to leave a mark on the bulls. The Dow hit its all-time high of 16,588 less than one month ago. It has dropped over 700 points since then, with almost 500 points in the last two days. The question everyone wants answered is whether this is the start of the big crash that Hussman and a few others have been predicting, or just another buying opportunity.
So what say you?
Which level on the Dow will we hit first?
A. 17,000
B. 14,000
C. Yellen will guarantee a reset of the Dow level at 20,000 in order to save the country
D. The electrical grid will go down, so no one will know at what level the Dow stands
SHTF
JPMorgan’s Gold Vault Has Biggest One-Day Withdrawal Ever
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/24/2014 15:52 -0500
Curious why over the past few months JPM has quietly been accumulating a substantial amount of eligible physical gold (even as its registered gold inventory is the lowest it has ever been at just 87K ounces since December 13, 2013 when 147K ounces of gold was withdrawn – keep that date in mind for a few minutes)? This may have something to do with it: moments ago the daily Comex gold vault report confirmed what many expected, namely that the JPM accumulation was merely in advance anticipation of major withdrawals. How major? Well, on January 23, JPM saw 321,500 ounces of gold depart in one day. This was tied for the single biggest daily withdrawal in history!The last time JPM had an identically sized withdrawal? December 13…. 2012.
If TPTB have their say, “Option A”;
If reality (mark to market vs. mark to fantasy) begins to assert itself, then “Option B”;
Option C? I’m betting on at least Dow 25,000 maybe more (what about all those juicy new IPOs with either continuing real-world losses, or zero earnings to calculate any p/e ratio);
Option D? Mad Max scenario. Bring it On!! No power, no water, no sanitation, and horror of horrors, no minute-by-minute updates on the “Bieber Crisis” that seems to have gripped the Western World.
Option D – “The Great Catharsis”. Yes Please!!
I wish I had the balls to short this market. Outside of a 401k, I have zero invested in stocks. Somebody tell me I’m a fucking idiot for not placing every buck I can muster into put options.
If the Answer is “A” …………. NOW is the time to buy more stocks!!
If the Answer is “B” …………. NOW is the time to buy more stocks!!
If the Answer is “C” …………. NOW is the time to buy more stocks!!
If the Answer is “D” …………. NOW is the time to buy more stocks!!
That, folks, is the FULL extent of my “stocks” knowledge. I watched Cramer once.
Really, really wishing I had gotten completely out of stocks a week ago.
Somewhat wishing I had gotten 2/3 out of stocks a week ago, instead of a year ago.
Answer A, there hasn’t been a large enough blackswan to cause a crash, though it is certainly possible the stock market will be the black swan that kicks all this shit off.
This fool in AK has been anticipating a crash for years. I moved 100% of my retirement account into 0% interest money market funds several thousand Dow ago, and missed a bunch of profits. A “crash” to 14,000 still leaves me underwater relative to a stock-heavy funds. Oops.
Re original question-I expect 14,000, on the way down. But don’t listen to me-I never expected 15,000. The fundamentals do not support the current levels-not by a long shot.
Without question the answer is C.
The Stock Market is ALL they have left. Every other indicator is in the toilet. They can magically ignore unemployment by refusing to actually count the unemployed. They can ignore inflation by refusing to measure the very things (energy, housing, food, education, healthcare) that continue to cost more and more. They ignore the bankruptcies and the record number of people on government assistance. One thing that they cant ignore is that one magic number.
See, the .01% could give a crap about anything that affects us but that particular number affects them. That number is everything to them – period.
They will come door to door and flat out confiscate the Spam you have hidden away in your cupboards before they allow themselves to go broke. So, the market may take a temporary dive but that does nothing but take some quick cash from all those that got in late. Rest assured, it will go right back up again.
C it is.
Massive stock market fail. This cannot be sustained. The American people could not deal with another large slid followed by more FED money injections. As I have been saying for the past 6 months, get ready for the American Spring. Everything is lining up for massive civil unrest and protests. The voice of Impeach Obama, prosecute bankers, unhappiness with congress, end the FED is growing louder. People are growing discontent to the point where words are failing. American Spring for 2014, I see the brink of Revolution.
For crissakes, the Fed is pumping $75 billion a month, and it’s not helping. Which means if the Fed doubles that amount, it’s still not going to help, and will further erode confidence. And there’s no telling how much the Fed is printing and pumping that we don’t know about, shadow banking, filling bank reserves and “loans”. The Fed has pumped $12 trillion into banks, both foreign and domestic since 2008, just to keep the financial system solvent.
The plates are all starting to fall. Emerging markets are collapsing quickly, China is about to default on debt payments, and their entire banking system has “run out of liquidity” to cover all their bad loans. Several Chinese banks have had bank runs already, and some banks have announced limits on cash withdrawals (capital controls). Japan is a desperate basket case, all their QE and money printing is making things worse, not better. Europe is a complete train wreck. EU unemployment is at staggering levels, as is their debt. Their bonds yields are escaping again. Did I leave anybody out? The rest of the world is fucked economically.
Which brings us to the US. There is, what, $350 BILLION in margin debt outstanding (although it’s probably more). Today’s 318 drop in the Dow will ring up MARGIN CALLS this weekend, the stock underlying the margin debt has dropped below the threshold, so margin debt has to be paid back. I watched the last hour or two of trading today, and it was just short of panic. People that didn’t sell today will be getting margin calls. Time to pay the piper. Monday could get very ugly. That is one helluva pile of margin debt, stocks bought by borrowing money, never a good idea. All because they foolishly believed the Fed had their back and the party would never end.
The only good news, if there is any good news, is bonds and interest rates have receded somewhat, meaning the $250 trillion in interest rate CDS’s won’t be triggered anytime soon, which means mostly retail investors are going to get killed (for now). The smart money has already rotated out of stock into bonds, the only safe investment right now (other than gold). Other than that, there is simply no good news to be had. And there will be no savior this time around. The Fed knows they can’t do much to stop the carnage without making the situation worse or causing a wholesale collapse of the dollar.
With bank runs starting, and banks putting capital controls into effect, you should be scared, very scared, and get your money out of the banks while you still can. Everyone knows a major crash in the markets is coming, and has been coming. Margin debt will accelerate the free-fall. There won’t be anyplace to hide. The criminals in Washington won’t be bailing anybody out, the Fed won’t be bailing anybody out, nobody will be bailing anybody out. We need for this to happen, banks to go bankrupt, the adjustment, the “normal business cycle”, a correction, a collapse, whatever you want to call it, to flush out all the criminals, cronies, fraudsters; Jamie Dimon and his ink, bankrupt all the crooks and make them finally pay for what they’ve done and make them finally absorb their gambling losses and grift. Can’t happen soon enough.
I don’t give a shit what direction the market goes. Up. Down. Sideways. I’m big time into the quasi-private (or public, pick your adjective) utility energy sector, and if it fails, I’m fucked. And so are you.
Who knows what happens short-term. Longer-term? The dollar takes a dive.
Keep stacking. Keep prepping. It’s going to get ugly.
Might be a bounce Monday as short sellers cover, but then the selling will recommence. Everyone has been waiting for the shoes to start dropping and wondering what’s been taking so long. China is just the first of falling dominoes and no one is surprised.
Liquidated a variable contract left to me in a nick of time.
Dow will rip down to about 13500, than bounce back, then drop further on the next leg down. This descent will continue throughout the year to end up below 10,000 at least. This year will be a rehash of 2008 but AWD is right, there will be no more bailouts because there CAN be no more bailouts. The Fed is out of bullets- they have exhausted every trick and none of them are working.
Many people will get caught in “bull traps”, thinking a temporary bounce is a real rally, at every stage.
Is there a presidential popularity indicator like the hemline indicator? If not, I would bet on one. Let me offer this slim proof, Nixon, Carter, Bush I, Bush II. And the go go market of the 60’s was pretty good until Johnson began to fail in the polls.
I am putting as much cash as possible under my mattress waiting for the real crash .After the crash will the time to buy stocks and anything else.Cash will be KING at the crash.
Well, fuck, my order of the Money Bubble can’t get here fast enough.
AWD, speaking of Jamie Dimon, did you see where he received a 74% increase in salary?
If I were Jamie, I take that money and convert as much to cash and gold as possible, and head for the proverbial hills, along with Blankfein and the rest of the Wall St criminals. There might still be left some remote corner of the globe… some island off the coast of Siberia, or the bottom of an abandoned mine somewhere… where they can hide from the wrath of the people, including many of the fabled 1% who may suddenly find themselves in a much lower bracket by the time the inevitable deflation has run its course.
bb
How are your bank stocks working out?
@AKAnon;
I did the same as you.
Sucks to miss a rally.
Suck more to lose it plus some.
I can’t deduct any of my IRA contributions anyway, so I haven’t dumped any cash into the Wall st. casino for 2 years now.
Instead, I’ve invested in “disaster and doom mitigation.”
Any thoughts on those 1/10 oz gold coins? maybe Canadian ones.
I’m thinking about trading 6″ paper rectangles with picturesof dead Presidents for some.
Gubmint cheese-1/10th oz carry a pretty high premium. My dealer only carries the smaller sizes as Eagles, so the premium is that much higher than, say Canuck Au. I figure silver to be an equivalent for smaller transactions, unless you need to carry it discreetly.
AWD ,I have already sold all my stocks .It just got to scary .I made a decent profit but had to pay much more in taxes this year.Damn
I hate having to pay taxes but the I R S can be ruthless.I have had problems with them in the past.
Was anyone here buying in 2009?
I sold my bear funds in early 2009, but I did not buy stocks. I bought gold and CEF.