Via Vineyard of the Saker
I parse the Russian media (corporate and social) on a daily basis and I am always amazed at the completely different way the issue of western sanctions is discussed. I think that it is important and useful for me to share this with those of you who do not speak Russian.First, nobody in Russia believes that the sanctions will be lifted. Nobody. Of course, all the Russian politicians say that sanctions are wrong and not conducive to progress, but these are statements for external consumption. In interviews for the Russian media or on talk shows, there is a consensus that sanctions will never be lifted no matter what Russia does.Second, nobody in Russia believes that sanctions are a reaction to Crimea or to the Russian involvement in the Donbass. Nobody. There is a consensus that the Russian policy towards Crimea and the Donbass are not a cause, but a pretext for the sanctions. The real cause of the sanctions is unanimously identified as what the Russians called the “process of sovereignization”, i.e. the fact that Russia is back, powerful and rich, and that she dares openly defy and disobey the “Axis of Kindness”.
Third, there is a consensus in Russia that the correct response to the sanctions is double: a) an external realignment of the Russian economy away from the West and b) internal reforms which will make Russia less dependent on oil exports and on the imports of various goods and technologies.
Fourth, nobody blames Putin for the sanctions or for the resulting hardships. Everybody fully understands that Putin is hated by the West not for doing something wrong, but for doing something right. In fact, Putin’s popularity is still at an all-time high.Fifth, there is a wide agreement that the current Russian vulnerability is the result of past structural mistakes which now must be corrected, but nobody suggests that the return of Crimea to Russia or the Russian support for Novorussia were wrong or wrongly executed.Finally, I would note that while Russia is ready for war, there is no bellicose mood at all. Most Russians believe that the US/NATO/EU don’t have what it takes to directly attack Russia, they believe that the junta in Kiev is doomed and they believe that sending the Russian tanks to Kiev (or even Novorussia) would have been a mistake.
The above is very important because if you consider all these factors you can come to an absolutely unavoidable conclusion: western sanctions have exactly zero chance of achieving any change at all in Russian foreign policy and exactly zero chance of weakening the current regime. In fact, if anything, these sanctions strengthen the Eurasian Sovereignists by allowing them to blame all the pain of economic reforms on the sanctions and they weaken the Atlantic Integrationists by making any overt support for, or association with, the West a huge political liability.
But the Eurocretins in Brussels don’t care I suppose, as long as they feel relevant or important, even if it is only in their heads.
The Saker
I wonder how many Americans know about the Tear Drop Memorial?
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It’s a 10 story sculpture, in Bayonne NJ, given to the United States as an official gift of the Russian government as a memorial to the victims of 9-11. “To the Struggle Against World Terrorism” it says at the base.
AMERIKA … not Russia, fucked up a golden opportunity to bury the hatchet, and start afresh.
A nifty slide show here; —
Ukraine “Truce” Fails: Withdrawal Deadline Passes, Debaltseve Situation Deteriorating
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/17/2015 13:38 -0500
UPDATE: *POROSHENKO SAYS UN MUST NOT ALLOW FULL-SCALE WAR IN EUROPE
As the game of chicken between Greece and the Eurogroup hots up, it appears another – potentially far more deadly – is escalating in Ukraine as neither side is willing to follow through on the terms of the Minsk Summit peace deal – removing heavy weaponry from the frontlines – as a key deadline passes without agreement. As The Guardian reports, The Ukrainian military have stated that “as soon as the militants cease fire, the Ukrainian side will begin to withdraw heavy weaponry from the frontline,” and the pro-Russian separatists proclaim, “We do not have the right [to stop fighting for Debaltseve],” adding that as far as the truce, “we have everything ready for a mutual withdrawal. We will not do anything unilaterally – that would make our soldiers targets.”
As The Guardian reports, and Interfax confirms, the situation in Debaltseve is deteriorating…
Kiev on Tuesday reported artillery strikes overnight around the key transportation hub of Debaltseve while the situation in the rest of the conflict zone appeared to be calm.
An Associated Press reporter heard sustained shelling around Debaltseve – where government troops are encircled – on Tuesday morning, some coming from Grad rocket launchers.
A senior rebel representative told Reuters that the separatists cannot “morally” stop fighting for control of the town.
Denis Pushilin also said rebels could not withdraw heavy weaponry, as set out in the deal, unless Ukrainian forces did so as well.
“We do not have the right [to stop fighting for Debaltseve]. It’s even a moral thing. It’s internal territory,” Pushilin said in the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
“We have to respond to fire, to work on destroying the enemy’s fighting positions.”
Asked about plans to carry out the agreement to withdraw big guns, he said: “We are ready at any time, we have everything ready for a mutual withdrawal. We will not do anything unilaterally – that would make our soldiers targets.”
As AP reports, Russia-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine claimed Tuesday to have taken the key transportation hub of Debaltseve as both parties faced a deadline to start pulling back heavy weapons from the front line.
Fierce fighting on Tuesday appeared to be focused on Debaltseve, a government-held town surrounded by rebel forces that both sides claim to be on their side of the cease-fire line. The issue was not resolved under a cease-fire agreement negotiated last week by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France.
Separatist leaders said in remarks carried by the rebel mouthpiece Donetsk News Agency on Tuesday afternoon that their forces have pushed the Ukrainian army out of Debaltseve, gaining control over most of the town.
…
Rupert Colville, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, told a briefing in Geneva on Tuesday that the UN is “alarmed” by reports of continued shelling in the areas and have not yet been able to get reliable information on the casualties there and the wellbeing of civilians.
“It is unclear how many civilians are still there,” he said. “We are particularly concerned about the civilians trapped in the area – we believe there may be a few thousand hiding in cellars, struggling to get food, water and other basic necessities.”
*DONETSK REBELS SAY HUNDREDS OF GOVT SOLDIERS SURRENDERED: IFX
*POROSHENKO TOLD MERKEL EU MUST RESPOND TO REBEL, RUSSIA ACTIONS
As the following AP clip shows, there are no signs of Ukraine weapons withdrawal at all…
As The Guardian reports, neither side is willing to move first…
Ukrainian government troops and Russia-backed rebels failed to start pulling back heavy weaponry from the frontline in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday as a deadline to do so passed.
Under a ceasefire agreement negotiated by the leaders of Ukrae, Russia, Germany and France last week, the warring sides were to begin withdrawing heavy weapons from the front line on Tuesday.
Anatoliy Stelmakh, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said in televised comments early on Tuesday that the separatists continued to attack their positions overnight and that the pullout hinged on the ceasefire being fully observed.
“As soon as the militants cease fire, the Ukrainian side will begin to withdraw heavy weaponry from the frontline,” he said.
* * *
So despite the market’s kneejerk exuberance last week, it seems the Minsk Summit peace deal is about as effective as the last peace deal… time for more sanctions and costs…
*POROSHENKO CALLS FOR `TOUGH’ EU REACTION TO DEBALTSEVE ATTACKS
Hundreds Of Ukraine Troops Surrender As Besieged Town Of Debaltseve Falls To Rebels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/18/2015 07:59 -0500
Last week, German equities soared to record highs with the Dax surpassing 11K, not only on the imminent arrival of the ECB’s Q€ which provides a risk-less bid to all asset classes, but on news that a second Ukraine ceasefire had been achieved in Minsk. Well, just like the first Minsk “ceasefire” in September, one can promptly forget the just as “successful” second one, because overnight, after a several week siege, the Ukraine town of Debaltseve finally fell to rebel forces with “troops of Ukraine’s Armed Forces laying down arms en masse,” according to Donetsk rebel official Maxim Leschenko says, cited by Tass news service.
According to Reuters government forces started pulling out of the east Ukraine town on Wednesday after a fierce assault by the rebel separatists which Europe said violated a crumbling ceasefire. President Petro Poroshenko said before flying to the town of Debaltseve that more than 80 percent of his troops in the rail hub had already left following a heavy bombardment and street-by-street fighting despite the truce that took effect on Sunday.
As previously reported, according to the pro-separatists rebels the ceasefire does not apply to Debaltseve, which links the two rebel-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk.
Bloomberg adds, that “some Ukrainian troops are leaving the town as “full scale” street fighting continues following a small tank battle, Ilya Kyva, a deputy police chief of the Donetsk region, said by phone on Wednesday. Kyva wouldn’t say how many Ukrainian soldiers had left or how many still remained surrounded by the rebels. Ukrainian Eurobonds fell to a record as fighting was also reported near the coastal city of Mariupol.”
And indeed, as the following map shows, the town’s critical position between the key centers of Donetsk and Luhansk, made it inevitable that as east Ukraine seeks to consolidate its territory, the small city would fall.
By now the long-running spin on both sides is well-known: Poroshenko and the West say the rebel assault is being reinforced by Russian tanks, artillery and soldiers, though Moscow denies sending forces to join the battle for a region that President Vladimir Putin has called “New Russia”.
“The actions by the Russia-backed separatists in Debaltseve are a clear violation of the ceasefire,” European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said in Brussels, stepping up Western criticism of the rebel offensive on Debaltseve. “The EU stands ready to take appropriate action in case the fighting and other negative developments in violation of the Minsk agreements continue,” she said, making an apparent threat of further economic sanctions on Moscow.
A German government spokesman said the Minsk agreement had been damaged though it made sense to try to implement it.
Putin showed no sign of backing down over Ukraine on Tuesday evening, when he urged Kiev’s pro-Western leaders to let their soldiers surrender to avoid more bloodshed, adding that Ukraine troops already have access to US weapons.
Hours later, the Ukrainian troop withdrawal was under way. A Reuters witness saw weary Ukrainian troops, their faces blackened, some in columns, some in cars, arriving in Artemivsk, about 30 km (20 miles) north of Debaltseve.
“The withdrawal of forces from Debaltseve is taking place in a planned and organized way,” said Semen Semenchenko, who heads the Donbass paramilitary battalion. “The enemy is trying to cut the roads and prevent the exit of the troops,” he said on Facebook.
News of the withdrawal hit markets, as Ukraine CDS soared while sovereign bonds crashed, pushing the entire nation even further into pre-bankruptcy and hyperinflation limbo.
So much for the ceasefire, although now that the entire industrial heavy east Ukraine region belongs to the separatists, the next step appears clear: a referendum whether or not to join Russia, a la Crimea, with an implementation shortly thereafter. This decision will be only facilitated following Bloomberg news that Kiev has decided to halt electricity supplies to the rebel region in the east. Perhaps the only question is whether fighting continues around Mariupol which would enable Russia to have a land corridor all the way to Crimea.