Are Automakers About To Hit The Panic Button?

Tyler Durden's picture

There is a major problem brewing the US Auto industry… and therefore the US economy.

 

Automakers just unleashed a massive production surge to keep the dream alive…

With inventories at record highs (having risen for 61 straight months)…

Which would be fine if sales were keeping up – but they are not…

 

And now the subprime auto loan market is set to collapse…

And here’s why stock markets should care…

 

To sum up…

The only way automakers are making sales is by lowering credit standards to truly mind-numbing levels…. that cannot last.

China’s economic collapse has crushed forecasts for the automakers.

Inventories are already at record highs.

And July saw a massive surge in producton.

What comes next is simple… a production slump – just ask The Atlanta Fed.


 

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12 Comments
Kill Bill
Kill Bill
August 14, 2015 3:00 pm

Say didnt GM’s finance division, now Ally financial become a BHC (Bank Holding Company)?

Why yes. They will be just fine if the auto biz blows up, courtesy of the Fed.

TE
TE
August 14, 2015 4:41 pm

I cannot believe the “recovery” crap in the auto industry, also cannot believe the sales figures when I look at percentage of rentals to sales, and the inter-company/division crap they pull with the parts needed for all their millions and millions and millions in recalls. My STBX-sis-in-law has been on 6 days a week and 10 hour days opportunities for the past two years (she works parts distribution), there is NO freaking way the GM employees “earned” $20,000 PROFIT sharing/bonuses last year based on generally accepted accounting principles that their customers and suppliers have to follow. NO WAY.

I also base this belief on the FACT that you can lease – well, jokes on us, UAW workers can lease – $30,000 cars for less than $159 a month, a couple dealerships are offering $89 & $99, ZERO down leases. Until you get to the luxury models, the bulk of leases seem to be average less than $200 a month. WTF? They leased them for that, and more, in the early 90s! What, do we actually believe there has not been massive increases in car prices in the past 25 years? I guess we do.

This is EXACTLY what happened the last time. Sales figures were pushed and stretched and pulled from their rich asses to divide between shareholders and UAW (non-union, non-executive, non-shareholders, are treated as little more contract workers, pensions gone, most on a 3rd party and lots of lower paid foreigners filling the roles of executive flunkeys) as “profits” that now only exist on paper.

I’ll also add that we sell to a few major suppliers to the Big 3 (very little direct sales, mostly we can’t buy the steel for what China can build the part, and they can stick their terms up their collective asses), and they are DEAD, DEAD. We had an uptick in late June/early July, but that has long since gone away. The “surge” in production in July in the above chart kinda’ reflects that.

ps, just one thing that the analysts fail to take into account, the American auto industry shuts down for model-year changeover around the fourth of July every year. EVERY year. Plus union workers, whom many have been around long enough to quality for eight weeks off, notoriously take vacations between July 1 and Aug 15, same MO that I’ve seen forever.

Due to the very known, historic and going on right now, inventory/production number games are played to “seasonally adjust” these numbers. How in the hell do they manage to shove so many cars out of “production” when 3/4’s their workers are laying on beaches, or traveling the world, or going to Disneyland, or spending 4 weeks at their cottages up north? And they have lots and lots of equipment that is down for repair/maintenance or refitting for a new model year. Guess the accounting clerks and mid-level managers are being drafted to fill the shoes of 100s of workers each? No? hmmmm.

Something smells, I’ve concluded it is the rotting carcass of every thing we have always relied on to make decisions in our lives. There has yet to be one area in my world that when I really dig in and research the methodology/precedent/standard practice where I haven’t found the insidious love between government & the wealthiest Americans/Europeans, and it’s resulting corruption, lies, faulty methodology/science, myths as natural law (small biz creates 70% of the jobs, no it doesn’t, and never has), the leviathan and contradictory rules, and increased prices and/or the hidden unforeseen costs of buying Chinese or of being used as a guinea pig. We have been stolen from, victimized, convinced it was someone else doing it, then we are all poisoned, tested, and controlled, I’m guessing the plan is until we reach our horribly painful, but very, very, profitable to the right people, death.

Or not. All is fucking well, this is just the “normal” summer slowdown (just happens to have started in February and continues until today), spending money we don’t have on shit we don’t need, taking poison while smiling and saying it’s for our good.

I am trying so freaking hard to be more zen, more forgiving, more loving, more positive, a better, person.

Still haven’t found the way to block reality, to change it into something I can find hope in, nope.

At least I’m still trying. That’s hope, right?

Dutchman
Dutchman
August 14, 2015 5:14 pm

As a consultant, I drive to many varied clients – mostly in the outer suburbs.

Here in the Minneapolis area, there are some really huge car dealers. I’d venture to guess some have upwards of 3,000 – 4,000 vehicles. More than two/three huge parking lots of new cars.

I never see an open space – they are packed. Recently a CarMax dealer opened. I’d say he has 3,000 late model used cars.

It’s just crazy – there gotta be an over supply – it’s going to hit the wall.

IndenturedServant
IndenturedServant
August 14, 2015 5:36 pm

Are there any websites that show chronological photos of all those huge tracts of land used to store new cars? Some were huge former US bases in the UK that showed runways and ramps filled with unsold, new cars. I’d be interested to know what happened to all of those cars because they can only be sold as “new” for about a year.

I agree with Dutchman. The big dealers lots have quadrupled in size around here since the collapse and every one of them is filled to overflowing. CarMax recently opened a MASSIVE lot here and seemingly overnight it was filled to overflowing. I’m not sure why but the new dealers and used dealers take turns moving their inventory (or much of it) to the large parking lots of closed businesses around town holding “weekend” or “holiday” sales. Out near the airport there is a “Dealer Car Auction” lot that is always full. Supposedly these are used cars brought in from other parts of the country.

From what I read, new cars are considered “sold” as soon as the dealers take delivery.

AC
AC
August 14, 2015 8:10 pm

Next up: 30-year fixed rate subprime car loans for the hood-rats, loans automagically paid via EBT card.

They’ll call the program ‘Obama-ride,’ or something.

WTF is up with the Captha-thing? Never seen that before. If you’re going to use these fucking things, I’ll miss posting stuff here. They do not work at all.

Econman
Econman
August 14, 2015 8:21 pm

Coming soon – car mortgages!
Supreme auto sales will blow up like housing did. When U look around, it seems everyone has a new car. That is a scam to make it look like we’re in this recovery they talk about.

Add in the college loan bubble, stock market bubble, housing rental bubble, pensions underfunded, …
Then state & federal taxes will revenue will crash while they raise taxes & “fees” to combat their mismanagement. There’s no way to fight the laws of economics & math.

Had they let the crash work itself out in 2008, things would be rebuilding. Instead, they built a bigger global house of cards that may lead to WW3.

Stupid.

Econman
Econman
August 14, 2015 8:22 pm

Surprise auto sales…

Econman
Econman
August 14, 2015 8:22 pm

Subprime auto sales…

Econman
Econman
August 14, 2015 8:25 pm

TE needs a hug.

EL Coyote
EL Coyote
August 14, 2015 8:58 pm

I had to check the date, this sounded like an old article.
Back in the 70’s there was a story similar to this one, it said factories would one day manufacture goods that went straight to the dump.
It preceded ‘straight to video’ movies.

cantbaretowatch
cantbaretowatch
August 14, 2015 10:10 pm

” car mortgages!” I can’t wait to do reverse car mortgages on all the cars parked where white people usually have grass. Dey awls in good conditions two mon, no yunkay.

yahsure
yahsure
August 15, 2015 3:30 pm

It’s tough selling cars when so many people are unemployed or trying to survive on minimum wage.