The market for industrial robot installations has been on a skyward trend since 2009, and it is not expected to slow down any time soon. According to the World Robotics 2015 report, the market for industrial robots was approximated at $32 billion in 2014, and in the coming years it is expected to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of at least 15%.
That means between 2015 and 2018, it’s anticipated that 1.3 million industrial robots will be installed worldwide. This will bring the stock of operational robots up to just over 2.3 million, mostly working in the automotive and electronics sectors.
For how long can the global robot population continue to grow?
Robot Density
Perhaps the most interesting way to peek into the future of industrial robot installations is to look at potential sales in China.
Currently, the world’s most populous nation has a density of robots that is about half of the world average, equal to just 36 robots for every 10,000 manufacturing workers in China.
However, this is changing fast. It’s been the largest market for robots since 2013, and in 2014 the country bought 57,100 robots – the highest quantity ever recorded in a year. By 2018, one in every three robots in operation around the world will be in China.
What will happen if China’s density approaches that of other robot industrial centers?
Highly automated countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea all have robot densities that are multiples higher. South Korea, for example, has 478 industrial robots for every 10,000 workers – a ratio that is 13x higher than China’s.
With this kind of potential for growth, it’s clear that this is only the start of the robot story.
As robots replace more and more people there are going to be more and more useless people with nothing to do around.
Masses lf useless people with nothing to do and nothing to give them purpose and self respect are a very dangerous thing.
Expect massive changes in the nature of our lifestyles and our freedom to live them as we wish in the coming years, and on a worldwide basis.
FWIW. it isn’t just manufacturing workers that are going to be hit: http://www.naturalnews.com/053432_fast_food_industry_robot_employees_minimum_wage.html, http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/education/self-repairing-city-robots-and-drones-made-in-leeds-to-repair-potholes-and-street-lights-1-7519518
This may be a bit overblown, that robots will be doing everything.
For sure the $18-22./hour automotive plant floor sweeper union
jobs will not be coming back.
Some predict the new economy, 3.0 will have jobs for the brainy.
All the rest will receive a stipend and subsidized housing.
All others will just die of their contrived (processed food) maladies.
A gigantic part of our facility could be run with robot power. The guys are jazzed up about how much sales increase we’ve had, but don’t seem to be aware that one of the major issues we’ve fought over the last 5 years is unreliable employees….so this big expansion we are launching is eliminating 4-5 positions with a single robot and some changed infrastructure.
1 got fired for no-call no show 3 days in a row and the other 4 will be shuffled into other departments. Unfortunately, we really only need 2 of them.
In short; its starting.
Even if we brought manufacturing back to the US, we still wouldn’t employ all of the people on our welfare system, because its too damned expensive to employ people anymore. A robot is just better for many roles.
Greetings,
In my opinion, the SJW are going to bring on the robots faster than anything else that I can imagine.
Read on.
Just yesterday, I was arguing with someone that used to have some sanity but is now a SJW. He was telling me that it was terrible that N.C. struck down some city ordinance that allowed everyone to gender identify and use whatever bathroom they wished. He was nearly paralyzed in spasms of rage at the Republican fascists who would dare do such things.
I told him he had to shut his mouth for two minutes and listen to me carefully.
I am a business man. I provide employment for people in what can only be described as a very hostile environment. If at any time I piss off any of the dozens of government agencies that oversee and tax businesses, they will strip me of my assets and do so without and due process. With all of these problems, the last thing I need to worry about is people that do not know which hole to pee into.
I understand the need and desire for robots and the SJW have no one but themselves to blame. I hope they starve to death in our streets.
The “Bible” warns us about Liberal Illness: Wide is the Liberal gate, and broad that way which leadeth to destruction that SJWs choose. If a Liberal will not work in his garden, he will have nothing to eat. If a Liberal can’t keep his stupid mouth shut, somebody will shut it for him.
Yawn. I have been saying this time and again.
For the 102,233rd time on TBP, here is the fact:
Manufacturing gets more efficient by around 2.5 per cent per year. Every year it needs 2.5 per cent less workers to do the equivalent amount the previous year. This rolls on, year after year after year.
Something around 13% of ores are in manufacturing. Decline that by 2.5% compounding over the next 15 or twenty years, and see what you get.
Manufacturing workers are rapidly going to be history.
I’ve worked with robotic systems for most of my career, and I can well recall the enthusiasm where the first LIMS technology was showcased. Showing my age, but “It all started with” – Autoanalyzers. These were the first true “Lab Robots” and Med. Lab. Technology has been where a LOT if roboticisation (??) has occurred. Thanks to this, we can see more Patients in the same time (and as an aside, mis-diagnose more easily – accidents (sample mis-identification) DOES happen, and it is often not easy to identify such errors!).
There has been a lot of developments in systems that offer improved operator safety (such as when dealing with “unknown” pathogens). We still rely on Isolators (the big glove-boxes), but accidents (glove puncture / leak) do happen, and having a machine do the risky stuff makes a lot of sense. The other option is to use remote handling systems – I’ve seen demos of these – and they do work very well indeed (once the operator gets the hang of the delays / limitations on movement).
Eventually, and the “Installed Fleet” Worldwide becomes greater, so the demand for control systems grows. This demand will be filled, and there will certainly be a move towards more “Intelligent” systems – maybe not “True AI” (as we think), but initially more autonomy (where the easy steps are done by machine, leaving the more fiddly things to be done by humans (mind you this will in turn create a demand for “Smarter” Systems, and be sure this demand WILL be met).
I’d envisage a series of small steps rather than a big step – Industrial machines becoming Domestic (such as the very popular Robotic Vacuums), and once the software is developed, the “Information” contained within the code is permanent – so there will be an increasing information resource upon which future developers may build future system generations, just as we see with “Personal” Computing.
So, maybe we’re on the verge of seeing a change in the Home too – most domestic appliances are microprocessor controlled, and it would be VERY easy to include short-range communication capability (Bluetooth). So, we already have a lot of the infrastructure in place to provide a platform upon which to launch the “Robot Domestic” – maybe a simple machine to empty the (computer controlled) dishwasher, or (computer-controlled) washing machine, and put the clothes on the line (after checking the forecast via the Internet), or into the (computer-controlled) tumble drier.
If there is a demand, someone, somewhere will service that demand. Initially the better-off / Trendy will be the main customers, but be certain that eventually (VERY quickly) the General Public will follow the lead set by the trend-setters, as has happened with EVERY other technological innovation over the past few centuries, from the mangle to the Smartphone.
The potential for THE disruptive change event (comparable with the Industrial Revolution) is enormous. Machines talking to one another – becomes homes talking to one another. – becomes communities / towns / cities / Countries. How long before “Machine” demand drives Industry – and us Humans are relegated to true “Machine Minders” or pets . . . .(a very popular meme in SciFi you’ll note!)
Fun thoughts 🙂 🙂
The manufacturer I am employed by uses robots to package it’s products and place them on a pallet on a few of the lines. The things break down multiple times per shift. Engineering has never been able to work out all of the bugs. My point is that these things will always require mechanics, electricians and engineers with PLC knowledge to repair/adjust them.