“There’s just doesn’t seem to be many blacksmith jobs these days.”
At first glance, this would be a ridiculous thing to say. Of course there aren’t many blacksmiths around. We live in a modern society and machines do a way better job of making things from metal anyways.
However, it also raises an important point.
What if machines are better at driving long-haul trucks? What if machines are better servers at McDonald’s? What if robots did your taxes for you?
While some of these ideas are contentious today, in the future we may look back thinking that our fears were ill-placed. The truth is that the job landscape is constantly in flux as technology changes.
Some of today’s jobs with high automation potential may be the future “blacksmiths”, and we should not be surprised if they go away. The best thing that we can do is to understand these trends and build a set of skills that will be in demand in any market.
The Trend is Your Friend
The following graphics from NPR shows the evolution of jobs over time in the United States.
The first divides jobs into four main categories: white collar, blue collar, farming, and services. It shows how the composition of the overall job market has changed over the last 165 years:
The second shows the same information, but plotted by the total number of jobs:
There were 10 million farmers in America in the early 20th century.
Now there’s closer to one million, and yet those farmers produce way more food. Technology may have “killed off” the majority of farm jobs, but at the same time new technology created jobs in the service, blue collar, and white collar industries.
We may now be at a similar inflection point for other careers – this interactive graphic shows some of the jobs that have been on the decline in recent years.
In 1960, a whopping 11% of the workforce was employed in factories. Today only 4% are employed in factories.
In the late 1970s, almost 5% of the workforce was secretaries. Today, we’re at about half that, but professionals can be just as productive without a secretary thanks to better computer software.
Yes, there are globalization issues at play here as well, but even a modern domestic factory such as the Tesla Gigafactory (which has the largest building by footprint in the world) will only employ about 6,000 people. The majority of the work will be done by robots.
And while it seems scary to think about the rise of machines and a faster pace of technological advancement, it’s important to recognize that these types of sweeping changes to the job market have happened throughout history.
The point is, try not to be the 21st century version of a “blacksmith”.
Hahahaha, goooood luck. Even a computer can do a better job than a CPA. There is a law and medical computer that do better jobs than the humans.
Robot sex.
If I want to get fucked, I’ll see a CPA or doctor.
Only Luddites are afraid of machines. I luv ’em! WHY should WE have to do the work if a MACHINE can do it? For example … cream. I don’t sit there for half an hour beating it by hand. I use an electric appliance and I’m done in under 5 minutes.
I just got this in the mail yesterday. I highly recommend it.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGAaM5-EvcQ
Stucky- They didn’t say if that masturbation thingy is dishwasher safe…..that would be a real plus.
Well. just wait. When lazy jagoffs get tired of the regyoulah electric jagoffer, they’ll come out with one that is voice command activated. The first bug they’ll hafta get out of it is when someone speaks the command, “OK, jerk it off” and the jagoffer snatches their dick out by the fuckin root.
ahaha
Computers and automation will, of course, make many jobs obsolete. Many globalists use that fact to imply that considering whether trade is fair is like trying to keep open a buggy whip factory. Bullshit. 4% of the Japanese auto market is foreign-made. 4%! They have myriad non-tariff barriers to foreign vehicles. Even outside of manufacturing there is international trade in accounting services, programming, banking, insurance, etc. Then there’s industrial espionage and theft of intellectual property that goes unpunished. We still have to make sure we’re not getting hosed, and shouldn’t have legitimate concerns suppressed by the braying of unthinking “free traders” who assure us that global trade is an unalloyed good.
Stuck always brings practical solutions.
Yes. Yes, I do!
In this case I want to help all you men here to avoid this malady below which has plagued me all my life.
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Iska……terriffic
White collar jobs will go the way of the farmer, then what happens? John
http://www.techinsider.io/momentum-machines-is-hiring-2016-6
So, then, what do we do with all the people?
Idle hands, that sort of thing.
In the future humans will be incorporated into the machine, for example high steel work on skyscrapers will be done by bots controlled by the hands of humans much like drone operators do today. Human hands controlling bot fingers in-tandem to complete a task by a human controller in say the US and the work site is in Dubai.
Bea, more likely the human controller will be in Mombai with the work site in Dubai. American jobs have been regulated away by our politicians who answer only to the oligarchs.
Durangodan
Well, good point dan…..I was just making an example but yours is better.
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“There’s just doesn’t seem to be many blacksmith jobs these days.”
funny. pre-bankruptcy Detroit Public Water System still employed a blacksmith – even though they had no horses. now, post-bankruptcy, suburbanites get to bail them out with water rates that have tripled. good times.
“There’s just doesn’t seem to be many blacksmith jobs these days.”
The union had two positions for lead burners – that was the term used for pipefitters who could make lead-and-oakum joints on cast-iron pipe. As this was an old technology and going away, there was little leverage to get the union lead burners a wage increase, so the union made this one of their “non-negotiable” demands, to raise the wage for lead burners from $X to $X + $2.25 per hour, despite the fact they were needed about four times a year and were paid (for other duties) year round. The company refused this (and other demands), and a seven-and-a-half month strike ensued, which ended when the company threatened to hire replacements for the strikers. [1982]
Some jobs are just not worth fighting for.
http://chestofbooks.com/home-improvement/construction/plumbing/Household-Sanitation/Chapter-XXXIV-The-Bell-And-Spigot-Joint.html
Actually, because blacksmiths have died out, a good well trained blacksmith can have a great business today.
The same goes with many “trades”. If one is willing to learn a trade discipline one can make an excellent living. I call it a discipline, because to be excellent at something takes discipline and a graduate degree from UHK. University of Hard Knocks.
Think of becoming a gunsmith. It may become a black market trade, but one could make an excellent income as one even today.
Blacksmiths are in high demand in KY as some of the finest horses in the world are bred here and we are all about horses and bourbon.
Well fuck. At least Stucko has his mind in the right place…..employing 3D programmers for a mans needs however some human porn is probably needed for the dew shaking machine to live up to expectations.
I digress. Hopefully the thug life will become extinct from the rise of the machine.
I spent some time with a former Panther girl…from Detoilet. Now she is in Texas.
Pretty woman. No, I didnt screw her. These people seldom work. The hubbie, never seen a marriage license, is in prison for the next decade, she hasnt seen her 15yr old son in years. She dates felons. Ones wife is in prison for murder. The most recent, a felon with drug charges, drove up and down the tollway racking up thousands of dollars in fees. She cant get her car registered. Then her license is suspended for driving with no insurance. Dallas has several warrants for her arrest as well.
It is just one problem after another…like a vortex of negative energy. I call her Dark Cloud.
“yet those farmers produce way more food.”
Not necessarily. The “food” created by uniculture, mass mechanized “farming” and CAFO meat and egg production is shit and it’s poisoning humanity. The truck farmers and producers of healthy meats are still the producers of actual real food and haven’t increased their production significantly in the time period the author cites.
There.
Two major downsides to mechanization of labour——–
1. With so few farmers, there are very few people in the modern world capable of feeding themselves should there be a break in the system. Even a 6 month interruption of services, deliveries or commerce could cause a global impact beyond imagining.
2. And VERY likely, history has shown time and again what the bourgeois do to the masses of needless laborers in societies. The elites already view us as using up THEIR natural resources. They want to implement restrictions and regulations that they themselves will be exempt from. In the end, we will be starved to death, victims of a mysterious pandemic, controlled global warfare–or when all else fails, summarily executed for some form of anti-government or politically incorrect thinking.
We are headed in this direction at breakneck speed.
What happens when AI makes every human a blacksmith?
A) AIs keep us as pets.
B) AIs exterminate us.
C) AIs ignore us.
D) Butlerian Jihad.
Butlerian Jihad. I’ll go for the Mentat look, I already have the eyebrows.
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