Guest Post by Jim Kunstler
You can see where the trajectory of events is leading. The country will be distracted by racial strife this summer while the global banking system implodes, disabling trade relations and the super-long supply chains we depend on for all common goods from oil to fresh food. Unless the remnants of the Republican Party act responsibly and find a way to replace Trump with a capable candidate, the nation will get what it deserves: a clown in the white house at the climax of the Fourth Turning.
The racial events of recent days resonate in a fog of cognitive dissonance. What really happened in those two incidents involving Philando Castile in Falcon Heights, Minnesota, and Alton Sterling in Baton Rouge Louisiana? Too many people pretend to know exactly why these two men were shot by cops. The video recordings of the incidents are ambiguous. In the Castile case, the recording doesn’t start until just after the deed is done.
Given the universal hyper-awareness of the current mood around the country, I doubt that policemen would throw away their livelihoods for a few thrilling seconds of malice. They know exactly what happens after the gun comes out: suspension, investigation, end-of-career, possibly civil prosecution, lawyers and more lawyers, a special hell of lawyers, and no way to make a living in the meantime. In a word: ruin.
These two incidents were followed by the shootings in Dallas by one Micah Johnson of twelve cops, five of whom died. That matter was not so ambiguous. The authorities quickly determined what happened and why. It is likely to lead to more assassinations and bushwhackings of police because a peculiar social mechanism gives people permission to re-enact atrocities once certain lines are crossed. We saw that in the political assassinations that commenced in the 1960s. The Jihadi beheadings and other monstrosities work similarly.
The possibilities for mayhem around the upcoming party conventions (Philadelphia and Cleveland) now look much darker than just a few weeks ago. Hillary took advantage of last week’s racial strife to deflect the blows she took from FBI Director James Comey in his public remarks about Hillary’s email problem. She went into full pander mode, blaming “white privilege” for the recent enormities involving guns and police. Of course, that will only fuel the “narrative” that whites are wholly responsible for black dysfunction, a false story that will lead to more conflict.
The legal spectacle surrounding Hillary and the FBI left many thoughtful Americans scratching their heads. The most superficial angle was how FBI Director Comey let Hillary off the hook because her “extremely careless” actions involving the email server did not include any “intent” to break the laws. The trouble is, the federal statutes pertaining to the case do not require any evidence of intent; the actions alone are enough to warrant a criminal referral. Mr. Comey skated over this matter. One cute theory circulating is that he didn’t dare to alter history by setting in motion events that would elevate Trump to power. Who knows…?
Much more remains to be seen in the Hillary email matter, because the real issue is not whether she maintained a private email server against regulations but whether she used that email server to stuff the bank account of the Clinton Foundation with money grifted while serving as Secretary of State. You can be sure we have not heard the end of that issue, and beyond that are the questions surrounding her gigantic speaking fees from Too-Big-Too-Fail banks, the texts of which she has resolutely refused to publically disclose.
This latter issue will become increasingly of interest to voters this summer and fall as trouble in the European banks provokes a contagion of banking failures that will thunder around the planet and begin to cause very serious practical problems for daily life in all the so-called advanced economies. Nobody in and around power in America these days is equipped to manage this epochal calamity, especially while we stumble and blunder our way into race war.
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It’s Out !
World Made By Hand (Fourth and Final)
He just has to take a shot at Trump. Sorry Jimmy, you touted the douchebag in chief we have now, so your credibility is shot there.
On the Hildebeast speeches, did no one tape any of these?
Been following all the “Banker Deaths” the last year or two?
while distracted by racial strife, the global banking system implodes and Trump cannot handle it but Hillary can – excellent analysis Jim
Philando and Alton…The video recordings of the incidents are ambiguous. Partly correct Jim. It does take a little thought, but the conclusion in either case was outright murder by the cops.
Not the conclusion at all. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/07/08/confirmed-philando-castile-was-an-armed-robbery-suspect-false-media-narrative-now-driving-cop-killings/#more-118476
Even if Trump was to become a clown in the White House you Useless Idiot, he’d be better than the Racist Muslim Marxist Warmonger Traitor or the Incorrigible Stupid Criminal Harpy.
Kuntsler’s credibility is gone after cheerleading for Bloomberg.
Good Grief , this Jack ass is nauseating . I try to give him the benefit of a doubt remembering he is Jewish and a faggot who twice voted for Obama . Blacks respect strength / power . This is what Trump will bring to the table. Blacks will know they don’t have anyone covering for them in the white house. Trump should use full force taking out these black radicals.
Ah, the Kunt speaks. This asshole is good for comic relief sometimes but today I just ain’t in the mood for his dumb ass.
@Mike in PA,
My thought as well…why have no speech recordings emerged?
Was there not one individual recording, and willing to out the
content?
It is important to remember the rule against propaganda (lies and
illusions) to be used against the American people has been rescinded. Think about that. What it means is that we can not trust any news reports of events whatsoever.
We have the dilemma we faced in 08. A very divided electorate.
We have a war criminal and a NY business insider that is “unknown”…..Clinton is the NO HOPE evil choice, and Trump is
the SOME HOPE choice. Regardless, we are in for an WROL future.
Mr K., Thank you for your thoughts, and know I will be buying your book v Kindle today. I really enjoyed those books in series
and know I will enjoy the final one.
BTW, as you rail against Trump, are you therefore thinking HRC
is a better choice? Do you want guaranteed war? Do you want
corruption and subjection on steroids? You are a smart man. Why
are you so blind on the evil of HRC?
Suzanna
Jews are the never-Trump crowd. They believe they are on the verge of reaching their 5,000 year goal of world domination and Trump is the antidote to jew dreams. They know Trump is the real deal, the end of their NWO and he’s the best friend to American Nationals.
Trump = FREEDOM, the other, not so much but lots of death and WWIII.
If you were ever gonna wake up, now is the time.
Are you people all butt hurt because he says Trump would be a clown in the White House? That is hard to disagree with. I would rather have him win than Hillary, no question there, but I don’t see myself actually voting for him since I gave up voting for the lesser of two evils years ago. Trump’s only real selling point for me is the disruption to the status quo he may bring. I like to bitch and moan about Kuntsler too, but I don’t see that he said anything out of line this time.
People not voting for him is what will make Hillary our next President if her health doesn’t catch up to her first.
If you would rather see Trump get in you should vote for him, he is facing an uphill battle against the leftists who always vote as it is.
I’d rather just keep stocking food for the smoke-pole, either way the S will HTF, with the Death Mistress it’ll just be quicker and more violent. And the waiting is worse than at the DMV.
Important notice:
We have reports from readers in Italy that ATM machines are being emptied. A run on banks is beginning in Italy.
M. Armstrong
The S&P index topped 2135 this morning.
This is a reset. TEOTWAWKI is indefinitely postponed. It is business as usual, moving on from here.
In wave terms, this is most likely the third wave of the first wave up — a strong upward move, with more positive mood, actions and outcomes. Fourth Turning activities may recede into the background — events like the BREXIT will be the exception, not the rule. This is also most likely the fifth and final wave of a much larger fifth wave, which is why things seem so shaky. Progress in many areas has been stretched thin, and remains quite spotty.
For some perspective on what to expect, the large third wave in this sequence ran from the late 1930’s to 2000 — it was probably the longest in the series. Wave four of this sequence ran from 2000 to March 2009. We are looking at a run of about 10 years in growth from here. I believe we will see a lot of this in the form of the global economy steadily re-flating. Perhaps the next big correction will resolve the over-inflation that results.
It does appear that the global economy has achieved escape velocity from the black hole of deflation. Bernanke deserves a lot of credit for that.
“In wave terms, this is most likely the third wave of the first wave up”
” This is also most likely the fifth and final wave of a much larger fifth wave”
most likely, this is Clear as a bell…………..
shite, my canned goods will expire! 10 yrs. huh?
I beg to differ.
If you put ANY faith in what you see and hear in the MSM, especially the stock market, you’ll still be waving for ‘throws’ long after the parade has gone by.
Yet, you put your faith in Trump.
Do you see the irony? I think you’re funny.
Yes, I do, and so does anyone with a brain. The alt is far too dangerous.
I think Kunstler is becoming a conservative! Perhaps from following the left too closely and being unable to excuse their idiocy any longer.
Kuntser is the box a douche comes in.
Hellabitch is a douchebag.
The tRump is a douche nozzle.
Hide and watch as Rump turns toward the “establishment” he has skewered to finance the +1 billion he will need to continue his preznut bid.
Make no mistake both bag and nozzle have Lie-0-cons in their employ who remain no matter who gets elected.
I still enjoy reading knutsler, even though I don’t like him personally. But I am tired of people letting Comey off on the whole “not wanting to alter history/be responsible for deciding the next presidential race”. First of all, he probably DID do just that. Most people in this country will just hear ‘the director of the FBI said she dindu nuffin, so we will vote for her”. Second of all, it’s not his job to worry about shit like that, it’s his job to enforce the law, which according to his testimony to congress, she most certainly broke.
Even if indicting Clinton “decided the election” that’s not the FBIs fault, or comeys fault. The DNC and a clear majority of Dem voters chose Clinton as their candidate. They did this despite the mountain of evidence of lying, corruption, and law breaking. If they select such a blood soaked, lying criminal to represent them and she ends up getting charged with one of the numerous crimes she has committed throughout her life, that’s hardly the FBIs fault for catching her breaking the law. That blame falls on the left for being stupid and gullible enough to vote for her. They bring that on themselves.
This man is a typical liberal N.Y Jew .He has much disdain for the goyim as his ancestors . His ilk and their progressive liberal ideology are the main cause of whats going on today in The U.S.A.
Europe is imploding as we speak. From riots in Berlin to ATM runs in Italy to Deutsche Bank begging for a 150B Euro bailout – all the controls are breaking down and there is no way to stop it.
Many people are asking…WHY NOW?
I think it has to do with the BREXIT derivatives that start paying out this week.
Let’s face it – the BREXIT was unexpected by the elite even up to the evening of the vote. TRILLIONS in FX bets were gambled on the outcome and those who were supposed to be “in the know” got it wrong. Now they have to pay up according to the rules set out in the ISDA Master Derivative Agreements and individual derivative contracts on OTC Derivative Market.
There are various time frames for settlement of derivative contracts but most are either settled in 3-4 weeks after the event or 10 business days after the end of the quarter. The BREXIT vote was held on June 23rd and the results were finalized on June 24th.
That puts us at “Settlement Dates” roughly starting tomorrow (if you count the 4th of July as a holiday) and going through the next few weeks.
As I believe that many of these contracts will not be fulfilled we will run into immediate counter-party failures blowing apart the “derivative hedges” that were supposed to offset losses. Then, all of a sudden, the “notional value” in the Quadrillions that is claimed to be hedged against turns into the real deal.
So expect the rumblings in Europe to begin to turn into a REAL collapse nearing the end of this week and getting worse as we move through July.
In the USA expect more planned social breakdowns as we approach the Republican Convention on Monday July 18th. BUT keep a close eye on the Republican Rules Committee meetings scheduled to start tomorrow. There will be those calling for DRASTIC rule changes in order to oust Trump.
Everything You Need to Know About the Republican Convention Meetings
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republican-convention-committee-meetings/story?id=40487878
With thousands of Republicans from across the country gearing up for next week’s GOP convention, dozens are already gathering here in Cleveland for preliminary meetings that could upset Donald Trump’s path to the White House.
Delegates will spar over proposals for official positions of the Republican Party, as well as the finalized rules that will govern next week’s convention. And handfuls of Republicans still hoping to block presumptive nominee Trump from winning the nomination will make their final Hail Mary effort. -END
Now who could have predicted that? 🙂
*NOTE: My suggestion that Trump and Sanders should run on the same ticket is not what I think is very likely to happen. I would give it a less than 2% chance right now but I do think it’s what our country NEEDS to avoid a collapse into Civil War. If either side of our fractured Nation wins outright the other side has vowed to fight for their rights and ideals and fight they will…likely with guns.
Then again…if Trump is ousted from the Republican party then I’ll up my odds of a Trump/Sanders ticket to 50/50 and be taking another victory lap on the Road to Roota!!
As I explain in Book 4 – the future will be NOTHING like the past for the United States of America.
My friends – if you thought the summer’s been a little crazy so far…JUST WAIT!!
May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
Bix Weir
http://www.RoadtoRoota.com
Didn’t a bar tender, bussboy or waiter record the 47 percent receive Free Shit speech that accelerated Romney’s suicidial fall un the 2012 debacle?
Hey Bob…are you on a break at the Cannabis shop ? Must be some good shit you’re smoking ?
I guess Aunt Janet is going to keep rates at almost zero for ten years or so huh ?
BUCK….The Fed is in a box. IMO, the Fed will keep rates at almost zero until there is a reset for a global Monetary system.
Kokoda…you are 100% correct. The crack that they fed to the Wallstreet junkies has had zero effect .
The best evidence that Trump is for real, is that the kikes hate him, they fear him, and they control the flow of information. They know he will steamroll the jew neocons that control DC.
The best evidence that Trump is for real, is that the kikes hate him, they fear him, and they control the flow of information. They know he will steamroll the jew neocons that control DC.
I posted that, I wonder how it came out under anonymous?
Buckhead, the stock market is a reliable leading indicator of economic activity and growth. It just made an all-time record high. Unlike in the year 2000, it is in a continuation phase, not a terminal phase. To all those who down-voted my comment, I respectfully hope you keep your minds cracked open just a little bit to the possibilities, and brace yourselves for a period of muddling through, followed by real improvement in conditions. The all-clear signal has been issued for the world’s leading economy. I suggest you take this into account in all your dealings.
How about the new highs put in by the stock market after Bear Stearns collapsed in early 2008? Was the market a clear reliable economic indicator? One year later it had dropped over 50%. Just sayin.
Thank you, jim. That was very polite
Bob….I made a comment to your earlier comment, which you didn’t answer. One of the reasons you received a bunch of thumby downies is cuz your clarity is missing.
susanna, much as I am reluctant to tamper with any illusions you may have, it appears supermarkets will probably remain stocked and fully functional for about 10 years uninterrupted, and possibly much longer than that. So be sure to rotate your stock! LOL I respectfully point out that has been the case continuously since 2009, in spite of dire predictions…
Doomers may just have to pass the torch down through the generations…
Admin, the 2008 market was topping out as part of finishing the correction from the all-time high in 2000. The current move is most likely the start of a breakaway from the corrective action of the past year-and-a-half. It is likely to move steadily up, up and away.
In my comments over the past few months, I have focused on this time period as being an inflection point — how things break from here will show the true underlying trend out into the future. I believe the BREXIT vote was a signal of negative social mood, but the reaction to it has been strongly in the opposite direction. Things apparently have a lot farther to go before they run out of steam.
I’m not a PhD in economics or a computer programming algo guy, but just a welder at this point. When everyone from the iron mines to suppliers to end consumers are slowing Waaaay Doooown, I’d say basing your predictions on a clearly rigged system with false/phony/made-up data is fairly ridiculous.
Then again, I may ACTUALLY live in a world where the unicorns shit Skittles in a rainbow of fruit colors. Who knows, with all the kaleidoscopic sides of every story, that may be closer to reality than what I actually see in my world.
Bob, no offense meant, but you’re delusioned. The markets are ALL manipulated, they mean nothing.
Check out these for yourself: Money velocity; Labor Participation Rate; Retail outlet closings and layoffs; Rig Count; Bank stocks (esp DB) all of them.
The entire system is at the precipice.
Swampy, all those factors and many more go into making the aggregate market a reliable leading indicator. Trading markets are actually closed systems — that means that ALL inputs are absorbed and included in the outcome quite quickly. I assure you that I am the opposite of ‘delusioned’, ignorant or misinformed. I started off a long time ago as a committed doomer, and participated frequently in discussions of collapse in the comments section of TBP. I firmly believed that 2008 was IT — a massive deflationary depression that would disrupt the world as we know it.
I was wrong.
As I studied what happened, and opened my mind to accept any and all information I could gather about reality and how to interpret it, I gained a more complete understanding of the waves and cycles of social mood and economic behavior. I gradually began to accept that we were going through a corrective phase that would not end in chaos — as has been proven up to this point.
I am sharing what I have learned, using some of the methods that I have discovered that have some reliable predictive value. I can’t tell you all the reasons why the S&P made an all-time high today, but I can tell you that in its current phase, the meaning of it is profoundly positive. Think back to March of 2009 — things seemed very bleak. Yet that turned out to be a significant bottom, telling us things were eventually going to turn up dramatically, escaping from the abyss. Today’s signal is related to that — the message is, things will continue to improve from here. I believe this strongly enough to advise my fellow travelers on TBP, enduring whatever pinpricks, etc. I have to deal with in the process.
Of course, I could be 180 degrees wrong in my assessment — I will be watching earnestly, with my money and future on the line to a certain degree. I hope everyone will be flexible enough to adjust in time to profit/prosper from the coming conditions. Today is a message to take to heart — things are not over by a long shot!
Bob, I truly wish you well, I hope you live a safe and prosperous life.
But, on this one we differ, so you go to your church and I’ll go to mine. I would hate to think I wasted $265,000 prepping only to have no party to go to.
I put my faith is several prognosticators, to wit: Dr. Jim Willie, Rob Kirby, John Williams, Paul Craig Roberts and to a lesser degree, several others. I have been studying the trends in economics and geopolitics for 25 years. I believe I have a grasp of the realities.
Retired US Lt. General Warns America In Grave Danger Of Collapse As Country Reaches 4th Stage Of 5 In ‘Cycle Of Insurgency’ – Will BLM Terror Lead To Major Crackdown Then An Explosion Of The ‘Powder Keg’?
http://allnewspipeline.com/Warning_From_High_Of_Collapse.php
Bank Runs very very bad for Levi; they kill his Zombie Banks which kills Zombie Economies which kill Zombie Governments which kill Dick and Harry Smuck.
Bob is an ivy league MBA and recent graduate who has just started an unpaid internship with the Fed. Amazingly, he is the 1980’s love child of Helicopter Ben and Ben’s then lover, Janet Yellen. In spite of his parents, Bob claims nepotism played no part in the acquisition of his internship. If it had, he says, he would have received a PAID internship with Goldman Sachs instead. Currently Bob has been assigned to work in a Junior Prevaricator position on the Fed’s latest web initiative, aptly named INEPT (Internet’s Nonsensical Exulting PaTroll Team). In his spare time, Bob enjoys watching Jim Cramer’s “Mad Money” and MSNBC News. His parents could not be more proud.
Welcome Bob!
Truth is Bob called the 2009-2016 run up- at least he has today.
I was sure that after Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns it was all going down the shitter, but I was wrong, big time.
This may be the mania to beat all manias, who knows where the top will be.
Undebatable, you may have a future writing for the Onion, in spite of being mis-named. Everyone who is familiar with my long tenure as a commenter on TBP knows what a hilarious load of happy horseshit you have unloaded in my direction! Very creative, but it does seem to be a rather lightweight approach to the ideas I have expressed.
HF, the truth is that I did not really start changing my opinion until the summer of 2012, and it was a slow, reluctant process from there. I looked incessantly for signs that doom would resume, and I was convinced that we would experience another deflationary leg down. This belief of mine continued well into 2015. I was a VERY stubborn bear, and I don’t call myself a bull even now. And yes, I have also examined my own thought process for signs I may have capitulated at precisely the wrong time. I was very surprised at the BREXIT vote, and made some comments about how this could contribute to an acceleration of Fourth Turning activity around the world.
Instead, we have a new all-time high in the S&P as part of the reaction to the BREXIT shift in social mood. Based on everything I know, that is a significant message I feel is wise to heed and share.
OH…., THAT Bob!
I thought it was perhaps, the young and dumb Bob from New York!
Now you are going to look even sillier when the “heavy weight” of time falls on your portfolio like the proverbial ton of bricks.
Do you really want to debate the truth regarding economic fundamentals or would you rather argue the myopia of hysterical (and historical) valuations?
Because, I am not seeing much “weight” to your positions here?
In any case, you weren’t the Bob who I saw debating Peter Schiff a while back on MSNBC, were you? 🙂
kokoda, you cut two lines out of one of my comments — I can see why they appear unclear by themselves. I believe I provided enough overall context in all of my comments on this thread to provide clarity about the point I am trying to make.
If you are interested in exploring wave, fractal and technical analysis theories, you can start with the works of Elliott, Mandelbrot and an array of prominent market technicians. And yes, they are just theories (Elliott Wave Theory being the most prominent) — nothing proven or guaranteed. However, their powers of illustration and extrapolation can be breathtaking to behold!
Bob, i operate on a quite different yet somehow parallel set of theories, and come to similar conclusions. European banks in trouble? Not really. They will just print the money. Solvency is irellevant, as long as you can provide liquidity. I’ve understood that since TARP. Not saying this can go on forever, but it can go on for quite a while. Don’t know what has the doomers so riled up this week, slow news cycle, I guess. Nothing significant has happened to alter our trajectory, brexit is positive, trump should be the next positive. We can fix all this. Looks like we will. Time will tell
The Tax Collection Numbers Say the Economy is FAILING
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfJ11mkO8QQ
star
Some consider the Market to be overvalued. It may very well be in terms of static thinking.
However, know that bond yields suck and in Europe, many are even negative.
Ask, what is the most important aspect for ‘investing’ by big and small – it is Capital Preservation. Forget Value, Growth, and PE Ratio when people want to preserve capital.
European Banks are in BIG financial trouble – initially it is the non-performing loans, but that is completely dwarfed by the leveraged Derivatives. The biggest bank of all in Europe: Deutsche Bank, shares of the 147-year-old company now trade for a paltry 8% of its peak price in May 2007. Derivative exposure is a notional value of $52 Trillion. This is a NOW event.
Without boring you with details for the above, it boils down to: When the SHTF (especially with Bonds), where will everybody put their money? It will go to equities (stocks), especially in the U.S.
There will be no SHTF moment. They will print (they just put out a number a couple of days ago, 150 bn, i think) and save douchebank, and all the rest. Can kicked down the road yet again. Greece should have taught you, derivatives don’t get triggered unless the central banks say so. And they won’t.
Kokoda, it’s not that you aren’t right. You are. It just doesn’t matter. You are right, douchebank is insolvent. But by giving them a boatload of counterfeit money, they can remain liquid, and a problem for another day.
The Economy Is Still On Track To Crash By The End Of Summer: Bo Polny
X22Report Spotlight
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thqS2Bk9UDc
Gold or Silver – Which is Better? | Rob Kirby Q&A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMhkMzvNH90
Please focus on my message.
The message: Things will continue indefinitely on the same track.
What I DID NOT say: Everything is fine — its not. Our problems are solved — not so. The economy is in great shape — not hardly. Etc.
I made a mistake by clinging much too long to belief in an implosion scenario. I hope you avoid the same mistake.
Who Has Been Manipulating Stocks And Pushing Them To All Time Highs?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MW6sRETIP80