Republican Tax Reform – What About the Deficit?

Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

irs-buildingThe Associated Press ran a story reporting: “Congressional Republicans are planning a massive overhaul of the nation’s tax system, a heavy political lift that could ultimately affect families at every income level and businesses of every size.” The interesting aspect is that the headline reads:

GOP: Cut taxes, change brackets; but what about deficits

There is zero discussion about constantly borrowing year after year. The presumption here is that governments can borrow all the time and someone will buy, even if negative, and the world will keep on going. They assume that this is OK and that deficits are all right as long as we fund them.

Absent from all of this basic assumption is the reality of history — whenever a government borrows, they ALWAYS default.

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Most people are living in the past. Prior to 1971, the US government borrowed money but it did not create new money, as it could not be used for collateral to borrow against. In the 1960s, if you bought an E-bond, you could not go to the bank to borrow against it. You had to cash it out. Post-1971, you could buy T-Bills and use them as collateral to fund your trading. Debt has become money that pays interest.

The bulk of the “real” money supply is created through the velocity of money and borrowing. When a bank lends money, it is creating electronic money without printing. If you borrow $1,000 and they lend it to you by using $1,000 from someone else, then two people have accounts that say they each have $1,000 but the actual money created by government was still just $1,000.

Consequently, during the early days of the Roman Republic, public taxes consisted of modest assessments on property, which were primarily tangible assets that included slaves, land, homes, animals, personal items, and monetary wealth. The tax rate under normal circumstances was 1% and sometimes would rise as high as 3% during periods of war. Taxes could not be collected on personal income for there was a lack of a valid census.

Julius Caesar ordered the first real census that was conducted street by street. He knew there was much corruption with people on the welfare rolls who did not exist. Caesar ordered a census whereby the check each property and who was living where. The rolls were greatly reduced after knocking on every door to collect a census. About 80% of Rome was funded by taxes, and 20% of the annual budget, on average, was covered by new coinage. This did not produce 20% inflation.

Roman citizens were free from any direct taxation. Rome’s income came primarily from war indemnity, booty, mines, port duties, and rental of public lands. The provinces were subjected to tithes, which was one tenth of annual produce or earnings. In 187 BC, the Roman treasury refunded the taxes imposed during the Punic wars. Women were then declared tax-exempt in Rome. However, in just two years, by 169 BC, people had been avoiding taxes by putting property in their wife’s name. This led to legal reform when a man was not allowed to pass his property to a woman beyond 50% of his worth. After 167 BC, taxes were exempt if you lived in Rome itself. This contributed to Rome becoming the largest city in the world, which was not matched until London during the 19th century Victorian Era.

syracuse-30

After the capture of Syracuse in 211 BC in Sicily during the Second Punic War, Rome adapted the tax system created by King Hiero that imposed a tithe on the agricultural produce of most Greek cities on the island. The reforms of Diocletian had eliminated the special tax-free status enjoyed by Rome.

There is little doubt that Rome funded its deficits by owning the mining resources, thereby enabling the creation of money to cover its expenses on about 20% of the budget on average. As resource dwindled, debasement began, but not aggressively until the Emperor Valerian was captured and enslaved by the Persians. That was a fundamental shock to the confidence of Rome and the people began to hoard significantly. This is also when Christianity took off for as people prayed to their gods. When no relief from barbarians took place, they turned in greater numbers to Christianity. The greatest period of Christian persecutions was during the 3rd century AD. It was the collapse in confidence that created the collapse in the monetary system.

USIntAs%Total

We are playing with fire if we think the deficits must be covered by borrowing more and more money that pays interest. It is time we review history closely. Stop the borrowing and monetize the deficit rather than pay interest and engage in quantitative easing that never makes it down to the people anyway. Up to 70% of the national debt has been accumulative interest which NEVER helped anyone but bondholders of which 50% have been non-Americans.

Government forces Social Security to be invested only in government debt, despite the acknowledgement that the rich get richer ONLY by investing, which government prohibits the average person from doing. Then we borrow their money and pay no interest, yet pretend to be magnanimous by handing them a refund check as if we were Santa Claus.

 

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9 Comments
Anonymous
Anonymous
December 30, 2016 9:42 am

Monetizing the debt is a popular theme among many people, but they never seem to get into realistic discussions about the consequences and ramifications of it.

Maybe we should start talking about the consequences of whatever course we take regarding the debt rather than just the debt itself and potential ways of dealing with it without realistic talk of what the effect of them will be on the average American.

FWIW, the Wiemar Republic monetized its otherwise unpayable debt and the average German, followed by almost the entire world, paid the consequences of it.

Rojam
Rojam
December 30, 2016 10:08 am

There are many similarities between ancient Rome and the United States. Monetary similarities, social similarities and of course, the similarity of endless war. It would be beneficial for our politicians and policy makers to take heed, read up on, and take appropriate actions on these parallels between Rome and the U.S. so the outcome is not the same.

As for tax reform, the article is spot on. There can be no serious discussion of tax reform until the deficit is addressed and cut. The deficit can not be cut until borrowing is at least reined in and starts to decrease. Borrowing can not and will not decrease until the warfare and welfare spending in this nation is greatly curtailed. Until then politicians and their political parties will continue to rearrange the deck chairs on the nation’s “Titanic” monetary problems while ignoring the damage that is occurring and only getting worse!

Freed debt slave
Freed debt slave
December 30, 2016 10:34 am

“It would be beneficial for our politicians and policy makers to take heed, read up on, and take appropriate actions on these parallels between Rome and the U.S. so the outcome is not the same.” – Anonymous

I had to laugh at that statement. If we had politicians that took heed, or read anything, I would be shocked beyond belief. Most of these politicians are carnival barkers and grifters, just trying to get something for nothing and leave the building before it all goes to hell. Basically, when you are elected, you are handed a ticking time bomb, your objective is to hold the time bomb as long as you can, and for every minute you hold the bomb, you are paid a princely sum. You want that sum to continue growing, but you never know when the bomb is going to go off. Some “wizard” economist tells you that he can make the bomb ticking slow down for a little bit, but the boom will be much larger when it does go. Well, hey, that gives me more time to collect. So the politician says ok. At some point, some unlucky sap is going to get the bomb when it blows, and that is going to be fun to watch. Think Bush on national television trying to persuade us to allow him to bail out the bankers “for our own good”. Unfortunately, the fix was already in on that one, I doubt the next one will work quite as smoothly.

musket
musket
December 30, 2016 12:14 pm

The first thing to do would be to stop spending so much money on so much b/s. For starters cut all the faces, spaces and spending on race, culture, gender and the environment. This money just disappears into a black hole and properly unaccounted for forever. Then weasel out all the other spending that does not make sense like paying tobacco farmers not to plant tobacco and government radio and television………Then take on the rules and regulations concerning not only DoD systems but all USG acquisitions………..it’s gold Jerry!

Brian
Brian
December 30, 2016 2:21 pm

“When a bank lends money, it is creating electronic money without printing. (<– TRUE) If you borrow $1,000 and they lend it to you by using $1,000 from someone else (<–NOT TRUE), then two people have accounts that say they each have $1,000 but the actual money created by government was still just $1,000."

When the government creates a $1000 bond and the bank (FED) "buys" it. The Fed transfers $1k of fed credit to the government account. The government spends this credit which is then deposited into another bank account somewhere. Through fractional reserve lending the banking network will loan up that $1k amount into $10k in new loans or $9k in new bank credit money.

Here is the catch 22. Every dollar of that $10k has some rate of interest due on it. IF no further bonds are created by the government for the banks/Fed to "buy" initiating a new cycle of loaning up more bank credit on the nominal bond amount . How long will it be until everyone goes bankrupt because they cannot pay their monthly payments on the principle + interest??

There is another way. The Treasury needs to create money and issue it in payment of people's wages. Otherwise there is never enough money (bank credit + debt free treasury money) in circulation to cover the principle + interest due on those loans of bank credit secured by US T-bills.

The evidence of this is the ever increasing national debt. IT HAS TO INCREASE or we all go bankrupt through deflation as money is drained from the system to service the existing debt!

Jason Calley
Jason Calley
  Brian
December 30, 2016 3:01 pm

Hey Brian! “There is another way. The Treasury needs to create money and issue it in payment of people’s wages.”

Correct me if I am wrong, but I think that is basically the same technique that Hitler used to kickstart the German economy in the 1930s. Essentially you have a currency that is not backed by debt (like almost all central banks are) or backed by gold (like currency was long ago), but rather by labor. The trick is to make sure that the newly issued labor-backed currency is used to pay for PRODUCTIVE work. No paying to have one man dig a hole and another to fill it in. No paying for your well connected buddies to shuffle a piece of paper from one desk to the other. The labor needs to be something that produces a product or good which becomes a source of future benefit. Build a better rail system. Build an autoban. Build schools and canals. My suspicion is that the main reason why WWII was undertaken was because the central banks of the west were frightened that Germany’s alternative banking might catch on and deprive the central bankers of their seat on the gravy train.

Still, if I had my choice, I would have a two level financial system. A day to day system using some form of hard money like gold and silver, with production of coinage being legal for private or government mints, and then a second system (like Bitcoin) for fast international trading settlement. Oh, and no fractional reserve banking…

Brian
Brian
  Jason Calley
December 30, 2016 4:08 pm

JC, Where did Hitler get the idea of paying people with debt free money? Probably the same place he got some of his really bad ideas..like eugenics and propaganda techniques.

Thing is our constitutional construct calls for exactly that. Article 1 section 8 clause 5 obligates the congress to issue debt free money. (gold, silver and base metal coin) Article 1 section 8 clause 2 allows for a form of credit money to be borrowed. (T-Bills that mutate into bank credit, gold and silver certificates, united States notes)

Of those types of money listed above in (**) how many are present today? How many were present in 1914? See my point?

96.6% of the circulating money stock is BANK CREDIT! Leaving 3.4% in the form of base metal coin and any outstanding USN’s never redeemed.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm

The system is horribly out of balance. You can only pull in so much productivity from the future in the form of credit. Eventually it WILL self destruct UNLESS balance is restored between debt money and debt free money.

General
General
December 30, 2016 8:04 pm

The proper amount of debt-money in the system should be ZERO.

Until money is changed from debt-money to debt-free money, the total debt in the system MUST increase. It is really that simple.

Our current monetary system is a modified Ponzi scheme. And we all know how those end.

Brian
Brian
  General
December 30, 2016 11:35 pm

A little debt money is good.
Without it there are no loans or credit cards or business loans…etc.
This was the whole selling point of the Federal Reserve system: Elastic currency to smooth over the business cycle…aka: credit

Unfortunately things have gone waaaay tooooo far in one direction.