The national debt is up $876 billion in the first 6 months of this fiscal year. For the maff challenged, we are headed towards a $1.5 trillion increase this year. Well done oh Orange One.
But at least we are generating tons of jobs. Oops – only 106,000 jobs added in March.
But at least wages are soaring. Oops – growing at 2.7% – less than the real rate of inflation.
But at least manufacturing has been revived. Oops – Trade deficit hit a new all-time high last month.
But at least the tax cut has trickled down to the peasants. Oops – retail sales have been negative in the last two months.
But at least the economy is booming again. Oops – GDP will be less than 2% in the 1st quarter.
But at least corporations are using their massive tax cuts to hire and invest in their facilities. Oops – just more stock buybacks and corporate executive bonuses.
But at least the stock market loves Trumpanomics. Oops – stocks are tanking and the Orange One no longer tweets about the stock market.
Just remember what the great financial mind – Dick Cheney – once said “debt doesn’t matter”. I think that was just prior to 2008.
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The U.S. government just notched its worst March on record for a budget imbalance, adding another $207 billion to the deficit for the month as the Trump tax cuts began to sap revenue, the Congressional Budget Office said Friday.
The treasury collected just $213 billion for the month, which was down compared to last year at the same time — even though the economy has picked up over the last year. Meanwhile spending continued to rise, hitting $420 billion for the month.
That means that the government borrowed nearly 50 cents of every dollar spend in March.
CBO analysts said the big drivers of rising spending were Medicaid and interest on the debt, following by Social Security.
Meanwhile revenue was down as the massive tax cut law, approved late last year, began to kick in, with the IRS taking less out of paychecks.
Government finances are cyclical, with February traditionally being a bad month for the budget, and April being a good month, as tax payments come in.
March has shown mixed results over the last few decades, but had never posted a monthly deficit above $200 billion. The worst on record was in 2012, when the government was still recovering from the recession.
Dang, I now realize I should have voted for Hillary.
Trump and his policies will get the blame for this upcoming crash, no doubt. You know, the ones where the groundwork for the failure was initiated 20, 50, 0r even 100 plus years ago-based on the criteria of your choosing.
So Trump gets a pass? I love when the only response I get is – Oh I should have voted for Hillary. Pretty fucking lame.
Trump’s economic plans are a fucking disaster. But at least he is pushing us towards war on three fronts. We’ve got that going for us.
I have to wonder sometimes–“When you are 21 TRILLION dollars n debt, ( think of skyscrapers built out of $100 bills) and even at a million dollars of debt reduction per day it taking thousands of years to balance our national checkbook, does more debt really effin matter anymore?”
We are long past the point of no return. There is NO policy, law or tax that will ever fix this.
From student, to household, to SSI, to Medicare to National, to State budgets to pensions– they are all just bloated ticks waiting to drop from the host and die a gluttonous death– what’s a few more long droughts of taxpayer blood at this point?
It is unsustainable, a reset is coming. As a bandaid pulled quickly type personality–I say let’s go full bore and get it over with………
The reset could be bloody and horrific. I’m not rooting for its arrival.
Admin, you missed my sarcasm in the first sentence-my bad, I see how you could think I was being sincere-I wasn’t. While Trump isn’t helping things out, the groundwork for this debacle was laid a long time ago.
Trump wasn’t going to save the US Titanic anymore than anyone else. It would be beyond foolish to assume we could get the US to stop its debt-fest at this point. Dissonance is the main driver of change in human behavior, so until more severe dissonance occurs the leaders of this country will just continue to let the band play as the icy waters fill the boat. Growth is the only idea that either party has for the debt-fest, it may be a pipe dream at some level but no one can sell reality. Rand Paul and others similar to him are a handful in the ruling bodies. So sure Trump didn’t save the day and go figure he is fine with debt, but apparently so is everyone. Trump’s notions never struck me as fiscally sound, he wanted a Yuge infrastructure bill, a huge wall, more military spending, more spending on nearly everything. So nothing about Trump the candidate made me think he would be some sort of fiscal hawk by any stretch of the imagination. So the big debt is not a surprise. People can blame him for part of the problems for sure, but 30 years+ of this stuff has been baked into the cake and now nearly everyone is dependent on this debt-fest.
No one will win an election calling for drastically cutting Medicare/Medicaid/Military spending which would be required to slow down the debt. Thus we have a predicament, there are not good solutions, just a waiting game. Enjoy the show, enjoy the time with your loved ones, and fight in any small way as the bill of rights gets shredded in towns/states as the communist types sell their religion as America sinks. The only reason I see that the US hasn’t sunk faster than many expected is that China, Europe, Japan and most of the world are playing the funny money kick the can down the road game as well. The whole world is F-d up beyond belief, we are both amazing and completely insane all rolled up into one as a species.
Just enjoy the show and throw in the towel. Sounds like a plan. I might as well shut down the website. WTF is the purpose of a website created to point out we are on a burning platform of economic policies destined to destroy the country.
I find it humorous how the Q-tippers think the country can be saved by Trump and then in the next breath say no one can stop the impending economic collapse baked in the cake. Trump is helpless to reverse our fiscal course. He HAD to sign the $1.3 trillion porkulus bill. Enough of the bullshit already.
Which is it people?
I’m so confused by the cognitive dissonance rampant on this site and in this country.
Patience, grasshopper. Trump is doing pretty much exactly what he said he is going to do. Don’t confuse the noise and fury of the press with lack of action. He is in the process of breaking down China. We will be leaving the Middle East, starting with Syria. The border situation is about to get fixed, one way or the other. And if I were a corrupt member of the last administration, I would be enjoying every moment with my grandkids. I’m willing to grade him every bit as hard as you are, Jim, But these are big changes, and they won’t be instantaneous. Give him time to do what he says he’s going to do.
I have no fucking patience for lying bloviating reality TV stars pretending to save the country.
Giving this guy a never ending pass on his horrible policies and decisions is bullshit.
This fucking website was created to call out the lies of these politicians and the government.
I will continue to do so, no matter which head of the One Party system is mouthing platitudes and false promises.
I won’t fall for that patience bullshit you’re peddling.
PRAY
Admin As much as I love your points of view, I guess the answer to all this banter crap is a question. Would you rather that Hillary and the Democrats would be running the country?
I would not rather have Hillary in control.
That is nothing but a red herring argument.
Trump is the president. He is making the decisions. He is signing the spending bills. He is responsible.
Therefore, I will continue to assess his decision making, policies, and war mongering exactly as I did Bush Jr and Obama.
No one is going to get a fucking pass on this site because their name isn’t Hillary.
Privately Owned Central Banks
Bout covers it I think
Just a cook . lol whatever
Dikster.
If I hear that horseshit excuse one more time I’m gonna kill myself.
I MEAN IT.
If you can’t stand the heat on The Platform you better jump off. John
Jim, nothing big ever happened that wasn’t messy along the way. And generally messy for a longer time than most people can contemplate. I was a contractor for a while. Trust me people would freak out for a long long time because they didn’t understand the process. if you told them it was going to take six months, theywould be chomping at the bit in the first week. Their OCD would crank up, and theywould be unhappy for the rest of the process. If you’re going to judge things by the month, you’re going to be in turmoil for the next 5 years. Cuz it ain’t going to be neat and tidy. This is a war. And wars are ugly messy things. The only thing you can really judge right now is trajectory. Not trajectory of where you think it should go, trajectory of change. I think we’re undergoing profound changes right now. And one more thing. What you call lying, sometimes, is necessary to keep people on board a project. Most people can’t think ahead in that way. So you tell them it will take two years, when you know it’ll take five. They’ll be a lot better off after 2 years, and will happily go along with the rest of it, but you never could have sold them on 5 years in the beginning. Trust me I’ve done in my whole life. That’s how you motivate a lot of people.
Nothing but bullshit.
Your contractor analogy has nothing to do with the $21 trillion in debt and $200 trillion of unfunded liabilities looming over the country. Patience ain’t gonna fix a fucking thing. This is unfixable. Trump isn’t even trying to fix it.
Your mad maff skills are really showing through in your profoundly naive view of the situation.
PRAY
No matter whom you vote for, you get John McCain. Maybe Trump lied, maybe not. It doesn’t matter because the policies don’t change. This would be true if Ron Paul would have gotten elected…which of course would never have happened but if it did, he would have quickly been JFK’d.
I don’t blame Trump. I blame the bureaucracy, the military industrial complex, the banks, Jews, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Europe (for pussification), and evangelical christians. On the other hand, niggers are pretty much blameless.
My prediction made below has come true in record time Star. You are truly a wonder.
I have long shared your confusion. How anyone who was alive to watch the Waco murders unfold on live television can still sit around bloviating about the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin is beyond me.
Either every else is insane, or I am. At this point I freely admit it may be me. Either way it’s isolating and frightening.
One of my theories is that what we are seeing is a great swarm of people kept chained to their programming by simple Ego manipulation.
Our Overlords offer their Control Mechanism is a variety of packages. (Baskin Robbin’–21 Flavors!) Each hook is baited with something likely to appeal to a specific personality type.
People have been refusing to think for themselves for centuries, I imagine. Certainly since mass communications began offering Instant Identity to the Volk for a ha’penny a broadsheet.
There’s the mechanism–identity. It’s not like most people are sharing their own thought-out opinions with you. No, they are fiercely defending ideas somebody ELSE told them first. How many ardent Monarcbists do you know?
That’s because no one held up by pop culture as a TV Expert is talking about it, and therefore Identity Man has nothing to regurgitate on the topic. Absent a guru to tell him he’s smarter, slimmer, and better endowed by virtue of agreeing with Monarchist views, it never crosses Identity Man’s mind that Monarchy exists to be examined any more than it occurs to him to wonder what King Ruprecht of Bunkum ate for breakfast on April 1, 1089.
Their sense of identity is strongly attached to these ideas they incorporate and parrot; The Expert is on Television! If I hold the same opinions then Goddammit I’m super intelligent and urbane too!
Admitting that they were misled, or that they were wrong, is a threat of total annihilation to their mass produced Ego \ Identity. You are not challenging an idea; you are threatening them with total obliteration.
We saw it with the Obama-bots and now we see it with the True Trump Believers.
If they were wrong they are obliterated. And that will NEVER be allowed to happen.
The Dumbocrats vs. The Republicans are the party of evil vs. the party of stupid.
2 sides arguing about how NOT to fix the problems. Only question is who’s worse and it’s apparent the Dems are worse economically. That’s not saying much.
The best bet is probably to get out, go someplace warm, and live a simple life devoid of all this nonsense we call “modern” living. Buying stuff we don’t need with money we don’t have to impress who don’t like us. I now think George Carlin was a modern day prophet.
The Republicans control the whole government and we get the biggest deficit ever during a period of supposed economic growth. Admin is right.
While the future appears foreboding, and things will likely get rough, we give thanks to God, and recognize our sacred duty, and ability, to defend our rights and the Constitution from enemies both foreign and domestic.
I’m not a q-tipper, whatever that is. I’m not too interested in the q-articles. Accepting that we don’t have control over the US and almost no real power to influence much more than ourselves and maybe a family members is reality. Information from this website and others isn’t going to create some massive change in how the US has been run into the ground. Yes, I believe Trump cannot reverse our fiscal course. Could Trump maybe slow it down with some vetoes, sure, but that’s at best. I never thought Trump would somehow save the US, no one person is going to do that even if we by some miracle got a Libertarian type in office. The problem is that people don’t want reality, and most people don’t want to spend their time focused on political things that they have nearly no influence on. The two party system has made our votes have very little power at all. Humans are driven by a large number of psychological/physio drives that don’t promote longterm big picture problem solving. The short-term hedonistic imperative is alive and well and the reflections in the mirror for most show that we care more about eating junk, staring at screens and whatever emotional aspect of the moment than anything longterm–even within ourselves.
Honestly I don’t understand your vehemence toward Trump, I didn’t think you expected much from him to begin with? It’s hard for me to get too worked up about him, I never viewed him as some sort of savior and I expect most people didn’t either. Alot of people just held their nose and voted for him b/c Hitlary looked worse. But I’m more than fine with Trump being considered responsible for not doing much, particularly when it comes to debt which he seems to be helping to make worse. But I don’t see how accepting that reality is somehow throwing in the towel, anymore than pretending we are somehow going to transform our whole society somehow and not only stop the debt, but reduce it somehow? How does that happen, which political party will ever do that? So far it seems neither and clearly the 3rd parties aren’t worth mentioning at this point. Most change only happens when its forced upon people and things become extremely uncomfortable or the threat of death (alot of people finally change their health behaviors due to this for example) is upon them, this just seems the most likely scenario. I don’t see the neo-commie movement doing anything but make things crazier and the ‘conservatives” aren’t serious about the debt either. Living your life as best you can and accepting we don’t have any real power or control over the US gov’t seems rational to me, not a symptom of cognitive dissonance.
Once I attended a workshop on effecting political change. The message I came away with? Working for change at the national level is almost hopeless, so don’t waste time there. The only way America will be taken back by the people is at the local level, one city council, one local school board at a time. (See the video post “A Citizen Speaks” for an outstanding example.)
It took decades to get to this place, and it will take a long hard fight to get out of it. I wish I was more hopeful.
By the time your from the ground up strategy works, people will have been debating why the US went the way of the USSR for about two hundred years.
Yes. Neglecting civic engagement for 75 years is like putting off car maintenance until the wheels fall off.
When the libertarians realized they were shut out of even state level, forget national politics they went to a local strategy. They put up candidates for city council, school boards, water boards, stuff like that. That was in the early 80’s. How did that work out for them?
I am afraid that the answers will come in the next massive crash which is unavoidable. Could not have said it better than you have.
Hard choices needed to be made , as for our President he blinked ! Then he played the go along to get along game supported by the spineless GOP with a majority control of nothing but hot air ! Be assured there is a final solution awaiting us as a nation . I hope our so called elected leaders have better sense than to choose a war on any front let alone many fronts . We as a nation are not prepared for what a real war will bring us ! Recalling every military unit everywhere total bug out would be a good start . Then start slashing spending mothballing everything we can . Bring to justice those who held Office that sold their nation and its people for 30 pieces of silver
There is a Kentucky Senator who’s wife is the daughter of a Chi Com shopping billionaire ? then there is a former VP’s son who made a fortune with Westinghouse small nuclear reactors coming to a Chi Com submarine near you and so on and on it goes . Our military is oath and honor bound to defend this nation from all enimies foreign and domestic . Bring everybody home and JAG Corp get busy , I will make up some nooses !
Forget Me Not ! It’s Nuremberg time for America !
You can no more prevent a cyclical event than you can stop the seasons.
What hasn’t been studied- as far as I can tell- is the human capacity to maintain a completely artificial construction as if it were a reality and to have that illusion come to life. It’s not all that dissimilar than the Creation Theory. The simple willing of something that has never been into a tangible actuality.
How long have we had a deficit? What has it’s effect been on the daily life of an American? And every year it goes up and every year we hear about how bad it is going to be when the bill comes due and it never does.
It’s not a cyclical event – any more than floating downstream toward a waterfall is a cyclical event.
Not a problem until it is a problem. Ask Toys R Us. They weren’t driven out of business by Amazon, as the narrative says. They took on too much debt and could not service the debt.
The exact same thing happened in 2008 to the Wall Street banks. Too much dodgy debt that could not be serviced or repaid. Result – financial catastrophe.
So now your beloved government stepped in and took on the debt and continues to take on the debt at a breathtaking rate. Interest on the debt is going up exponentially. Deficit spending is nothing but a tax on future generations.
You and all the other cognitive dissonant people on this site are basically saying “FUCK YOU FUTURE GENERATIONS. I want my life to be unaffected by reality. When it blows sky high that’ll be your problem – SUCKERS”.
For someone who clearly loves his family and children, the casual blow off of this coming debt crisis is out of character for you.
You misunderstand me.
One, it isn’t “my beloved government”, I reject it in the “I divorce thee, I divorce thee, I divorce thee” school of relationships. I am no longer theirs and they are no longer mine, we simply inhabit the same geographic territory and temporal plane.
Second, I said nothing that would infer a casual blow-off other than “You can no more prevent a cyclical event than you can stop the seasons.” Which means, ‘prepare because it is coming’. I understand full well the fundamental realities of living a lie as well as anyone and have turned my back on it. I have no debt, I pay no Federal income taxes and have crafted my life and expectations to see that I never do. That means we do without a lot and have to find ways to provide for ourselves, but this is neither a burden nor a life of poverty, but a means of starving the beast one small family at a time. It is not much, but it is what we can do.
What I said is that there is a power to the collective believing in something long enough and deeply enough that allows reality to fall into the slipstream. I had never noticed it until we walked away from that lifestyle and I thought, erroneously, that in 2008 we were indeed heading into the reckoning. I was clearly wrong. It may indeed happen in the near future, but I am also willing to accept that it may not happen in my lifetime, so strong is the delusion.
On Tuesday morning my wife and daughter drove down the driveway while my sons and I waved goodbye. A few minutes later a neighbor drove up to inform me that there had been an accident but that my family was safe. He drove me down to the intersection a mile away and I saw what was a near fatal wreck; a logging truck driving 55 mph had taken the front end of my wife’s car completely off and strewn the wreckage a quarter of a mile down the highway. Had they driven another six inches forward before he hit them they would both have been killed. He never even hit his brakes. I stood there on the side of the road holding onto the two of them as hard as I could manage and realized that the things we assume will keep us safe, a painted line on the pavement, a traffic light changing from one color to another, the full attention of all the other drivers on the road, these things are an illusion, something we accept as a reality when they are nothing of the sort. They are simply artifacts of an overly complex species that believes itself so special that it can manifest it’s own reality on the physical world.
I do not know when the final reckoning will take place and I have even less of an idea what form and shape it will take, but I understand that there is no escape from the end.
Memento mori.
I’m so happy your wife and child are safe and uninjured. Nothing matters except family. I’m afraid no matter how disconnected we are from the government, when this thing blows no one will be able to sidestep the consequences.
That is why I have gradually come to the conclusion that nothing I write or say will have a damn bit of impact. That’s why I hardly write anything anymore. In the past I would have written a scathing article about the BLS unemployment report. Now I don’t care. It doesn’t matter what I say or think.
The debt will continue to grow exponentially until a trigger sets off a cataclysmic detonation. Could be next week or it could be 10 years.
Again, I’m very relieved your family was not injured.
Admin, I’m a partial Q-er and Trumpeteer. That said, he will probably trigger the biggest meltdown of economic history, because he can’t not trigger it.
Those who wanted us slaves spent decades devising strategy, tactics and mechanisms. It might have started in 1913 with the income tax and internal revenue service – income taxes (Honest Abe not withstanding) had been forbidden until then. It might have started earlier, hard to tell. But it certainly went into high gear with FDR, LBJ and all those losers who enabled them in the courts and Congress.
That also being said, you did notice the Dec 2017 EO that said he could seize assets of any organization involved in human trafficking? It’s been mentioned here a few times.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/
Now imagine this: Trump finds someone high, VP or higher level, in the Fed is a pedophile and has been abusing children for years. Trump seizes this asshole’s assets, and puts the screws to them.
48 hours later the Marines land in D.C. and take the Eccles Building without encountering resistance. All computer records and equipment are taken; in an hour all Fed accounts IN THE MEMBER BANKS and all THEIR ASSETS (the member banks, GS and all) are taken into custody, along with their boards of directors, executive staff, & etc.
Trump now effectively OWNS the Fed; all their assets, and all their accounts are now part of the Treasury. It wipes out the national debt, demolishes elite control and puts Trump in the driver’s seat to kill all the sweetheart deals, all the collusion and corruption and clean house.
Various pundits scream “dictatorship” but pundits don’t order Marines around. Various civil libertarians scream “dictatorship” but civil libertarians don’t control the Fed either. Trump is threatened (more), denigrated (more), called every name imaginable but stands up to the storm; he declares his opposition “friends of pedophiles and worse”, arrests a few he has been saving up charges against, ignores the rest.
If he DID this, would you be:
(A) Aghast at the “American Caesar” who turned the US into a totalitarian state,
(B) Cheering the bold leader who evicted the elites from power and cured 98% of America’s economic ills in one month, or
(C) Distressed at how one man did so much to right evil – at the cost of even greater evil?
I’m not sure how I would react either – I don’t want a dictator but isn’t that what we have now? 535 little dictators who all act to line their own pockets at our expense? When McCabe and Comey can decide to nullify an election because they didn’t like the results and act on it, along with Mueller and Rosenstein & co. while in the FBI? Who went to jail for the murders at Ruby Ridge and Waco, and what’s to stop them from more?
We are at a crossroads, and the only choice we don’t have – is to stand still. What choice would you make to REMEDY the ills in the US? And who would you pick to do it?
Sounds like a great movie of the week. Not going to happen.
I wish all the Q worshipers the best. Enjoy the show.
I will not be joining you, but I won’t stop you from posting anything you want about Q.
PRAY
keep writing jim,that one certain article might be what galvanizes an influential broadcaster to concentrate on what it takes to fix the government or it might be what it takes some perot type,or even a trump type,to run for & win office–
I think only Jesus Christ himself is the only one who can stop our slide into the economic abyss. Trump can’t do it. It is baked into the cake. The question is will it be just an economic collapse or a civilization decline like the one that took place in 476 AD.
The dead weight of diversity. It helps bankers and it only costs you your future and the future of your children.
Batty old man Trumpo has done zippity do da about that. His weak tea Reaganomic disaster is about to Sink this Titanic Money Pit. Reagan 2.0 go down the hole…
Weimar 2.0 is about to Fall Down.
The Fall Out is going to be FIERCE!!!
In reality the deficit is money being added to the economy.
Our money is debt, if it isn’t being removed from the economy by taxes and interest at the same rate as it is added by increased borrowing it increases the money supply and, at least ideally, stimulates the economy by adding more money to stimulate economic activity.
This is called inflation which screws savers and anyone on a fixed income.
It is if production doesn’t increase in relation to it.
Inflation is more money available for the same or a lesser number of goods to spend it on.
Deflation is more goods with the same amount of money available.
Inflation is a devaluation of the currency (your money’s worth less), deflation is a revaluation of it (your money’s worth more).
except when privately owned central banks control the flow both ways
just a thought
just a cook
The fact is that it can’t continue forever. Judging by Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio, we may have a way to go, but we will hit the wall. The only time our debt-to-GDP was this high was in the immediate aftermath of WWII, but we had the advantage of being the only major industrialized country not in ruins. The end won’t be enslaving everyone to 90% tax rates or inflating the debt into insignificance. Those will just be tactics along the way. Eventually the debt will be repudiated – wiped out, destroying much of the wealth that was thought to exist. It’ll make the Depression look like a day at the park. That’s how I see it anyway. On the plus side, it’s only one problem alongside the rise of the surveillance state, artificial intelligence and the ever-present likelihood of eventual nuclear war.
Trump himself, as a businessman, was a creature of the credit markets. I’m not surprised that he has no concern about the national debt. It must be the one thing that the deep state loves about him. Anyway, this debt bomb is going to grow and grow, regardless of who gets elected, until it finally blows up. When it does, it’s going to be something for the ages.
The national debt can be paid off by simply having the Treasury issue interest free dollars to pay it off.
That’s what will eventually have to be done if we get rid of the Fed and deal with the interest bearing notes that are used as dollars now. The Federal Reserve Act actually allows for this.
Sounds simple. Just like you.
So, other than an insult, what is your proposal?
Do you have anything to offer for consideration or not?
I think Jim wants us to stop borrowing money – or at least stop borrowing so goddamn much.
🙂
You bet it will be something for the ages. Wrenching social and economic changes are ahead of us, but I firmly believe that it’s all for the best. Right now you have things happening that make the Weimar Republic look like an uptight Amish town. I can’t go a week without seeing some article on life like sex dolls. That’s when I say “we’re done here. Whatever culture we had, it’s dead now.”
The fun thing about this era is watching the baby boomer denial about it all. Both left and right, denial all around, whistling through the graveyard. They know deep down that when this all goes down, they will have to do the plastic bag-over-the-head routine after watching their last sunset.
Not wired that way, plastic bags or otherwise. If I lose all hope in the future I will hole up, wait for the idiots and kill as many as I can before I go. The more, the merrier – and if I save the last bullet for myself, it will be because I’m out of grenades, flammables and other suitable countermeasures.
Then again, if I make it away from the city, the problem itself may starve out before it reaches me. I guess it depends on timing, locations, severity and the luck of the draw. Like a lot of things in the near future?
DOW -572 at yesterday’s close fueled by Trump’s trade war and you give him a pass? Your pass will turn to fury when the markets are in free fall and your personal financial health begins to suffer.
Trumpeteers guaranteed us that Trump knew how to get things done and would turn it all around. So far he has made every bad choice possible and actually made a bad situation worse.
**** Next up, Starfcker will give us our daily ,”Give Trump some time, it’s all good” pep rally.
-572 means money was taken out of the market, so where is that money going to end up moving to?
That’s where you want to consider moving yours to, that is how profits on investments are made.
Move out of bonds to money market.
I’ve always thought of the money markets as a low risk temporary parking place where your money can at least draw some interest while waiting to move it somewhere more profitable.
But I haven’t put anything into them in almost 20 years, so how to people view and use it now? Can a profit be made in it and is it still a low risk place to put money?
Just buy 2-year Treasury notes.
If truth were known,money markets are bonds.
WRONG. -572 means that amount of value evaporated. It doesn’t mean money was taken out of the market. Jeez.
Evaporated?
It went down because of selling, you’re saying that everyone that sold got nothing for the sale? The sold for zero instead of at market prices?
Really stupid idea to sell if that is true, otherwise a lot of people did get money for their stocks as they sold them and have to put that money somewhere.
You really need to educate yourself. There is a buyer and a seller boob. There is no money on the sidelines. The perceived value of stocks was reduced. The faux wealth was reduced. Read some John Hussman so you understand how the markets work.
But you you haven’t explained where the money those sellers received has gone, and since it is no longer in the market it has gone somewhere.
The market is easily understood if you look at as a big auction, which is what it is. Someone who owns sells it to the highest bidder who buys it, if the highest bidder is lower than what it is valued at -what the seller is asking- then the value goes down or the item isn’t sold if the seller refuses it.
No different than trading in the metals, except your trading in equities instead of commodities.
If a company has a million shares outstanding and it trades at $100, the market cap is $100 million. If, on a given day, 10,000 shares are sold, but they only fetch $95, only $950,000 is “taken out” (and $950k “put in”), but the market cap of the company dropped by $5 mil.
Iska is right. In fact, if one share is sold, at a dollar, the perceived value has dropped by 99 million.
And that is what happens in the sharemarket. A very small percentage of shares are traded. Shares prices drop when sellers outnumber buyers.
Sharemarket reflects what a person can approximately potentially realize, not what has actually happened, and is based on the latest prices offered for sale for the individual company shares.
Where you can enormous bloodbaths is when sellers begin getting rid of shares, or offering to sell them, at ever lower prices in large volumes. Prices can plummet, as buyers exit the market, and sellers get ever more desperate to get rid of shares before prices collapse further.
That “money” never truly existed. Phony, bloated markets artificially inflating their own values in some computerized ticker tape. Social media sites that never turn a profit worth hundreds of billions? Billions of what?
Every frickin FAANG could disappear tomorrow and it would not affect my life one tiny iota– where is the monetary value ??
Trump actually wants to be liked. That’s his problem. We needed a president who would sneak into office with a bare majority of the electoral college and do the things the elite don’t want (Wall) and the things the people don’t want (cut all federal spending – including defense and entitlements – radically) right before he got assassinated or lost his re-election bid by 50 pts. The problem is less Trump than the people. Rights after he signs that omnibus fuckery he reaches peak popularity. But I really have no business hoping for a disciplined citizenry when I see the People of Walmart and the Free Shit Army.
Liked?
He’s going about it the wrong way if that is what he wants.
OTOH, his popularity does seem to be rising, at least if the polls mean anything (which they might not).
IMO, YMMV.
No Bea I’m not going to give you a daily Trump pep talk. I’m going to give you a daily economics lesson. Trade War. Soybean prices down. Pork prices down. YOUR GROCERY BILL DOWN. Now tell me how that’s a bad thing? Read what Anon posted above. Deflation causes your dollars to be worth more. Drill that through your thick head
Why do you continuously lie when trying to push your agenda? Inflation in real stuff is raging.
Soybean prices up 10% in the last year.
Pork up 2% in last year.
Wheat up 12% in last year.
Corn up 8% in last year.
Oil up 18% in last year. (I thought we were self sufficient – Trump tells me so)
Gas up 12% in last year.
Cotton up 12% in last year.
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
That’s based on current supply vs demand ratios staying the same.
A trade war could change those if production stays the same and demand goes down and lower prices. Producers could also just produce less and have less supply than the demand making prices go higher. We’re just speculating about which way it will go now, reality usually doesn’t turn out the way speculation wants it to.
Did you see that I was replying to starfcker’s contention that grocery bills were down under Trump?
I wasn’t speculating about a fucking thing. I provided actual data refuting starfcker’s claim, with a link so people could check my numbers.
I have no idea why you felt the need to chime in with a comment that had nothing to do with the discussion.
Sorry, I thought you were referring to a possible trade war and the expected effect on prices.
That seems to be what his post was about, future prices in a trade war, not current prices without one.
At least it seems that way to me, maybe Star could clarify it.
Exactly. I heard yesterday that soybean futures and pork futures were down because of tariffs on China. This is exactly what I would expect. If commodity prices go down, the downstream retail effect in those commodities should go down. As in lower grocery store prices. It has nothing to do at all with the last year. Quinn and I are oil and water. He likes to talk about what has happened in the past. I like to talk about what’s going to happen in the future. Yet I hear people talking as if soybean and pork futures going down is a bad thing. It’s a great thing
You conveniently ignore the rise in costs from Trump’s tariffs. Jesus you are a one trick pony. Whether the tariffs are warranted or not, prices will fucking GO UP in a trade war.
Only you would cheer higher prices as a good thing. Are you purposely obtuse?
That’s why it’s selective, Jim. We want to price certain things up so that we can compete by producing them here in America. Food is not one of those things. We can produce all our own food, and we can do it cheaply. Nothing to fear from a trade war. This is how we get our country back, by putting a stop to letting other countries abuse our market. Ask yourself, who would you rather be right now, Xi, or Trump? Trump holds all the cards.
Selective my ass. Trump’s latest salvo is on 1,300 Chinese products, including TVs, dishwashers and printers. I’m sure glad Americans don’t buy those things.
How about the American soybean farmers who get reamed up the ass?
Trump doesn’t really plan on implementing these tariffs. His mouthpiece Kudlow has already spilled the beans. He thinks he’s a brilliant negotiator. We’ll see whether Xi will back down. We’ll see if Trump has the balls to follow through if Xi calls his bluff. Trump does not hold all the cards.
“How about the American soybean farmers who get reamed up the ass?” Like I care. Here’s where you go off the rails, Jim. The price of all commodities needs to come down. That’s how the cost of living comes down. I don’t care if Chinese electronic junk cost more. I want food, energy, and housing to come down from their artificially high prices. There’s no such thing as a small soybean farmer. That’s all the big boys. And they can rot for all I care. They’ll have to make less money for the country to get fixed. And have to deal with it. One of my favorite sayings, too fucking bad.
If Trump’s policies were going to reduce your income by 25% I bet you would care. Chinese junk is what makes this economy go round. I already provided you the price increases for oil and food since Trump has been president. His policies appear to be creating the inflation big guy.
Your economic cajones are pretty small based on the asinine comments you have made on this thread. How obtuse do you have to be to not realize a trade war will drive prices higher when the average household already has no discretionary cash.
You are dense.
Star – for fuck sake, here is what will happen:
There will be a fucking glut of soybeans. They will sell at a huge discount – for a while. Farmers will immediately stop growing them, and prices will go back up, probably to above where they were before. That is standard.
The farmers, if they can, will switch to something else to export, IF they can. The American matket is saturated, so they will look for exports. Does that opportunity exist? If a better opportunity than soybeans existed, it would already have been implemented. That is how the system works.
Farmers are going to get reamed by this. And aftr a season of low soybean prices, so will the consumer. Commodity prices will increase. Not go down. Farmers will not continue supply with no demand. And that means a higher overhead to production volume ratio, which means higher prices. And that is a fact, jack.
The US market for commodities just went down. Lower production means overheads to volume increase, which means higher prices.
Wishing it to be so will not make it seem. This shit is going to end badly.
We should subsidize soybean exports to China so the estrogens would make them more gay. Now that would be 3-D Chinese checkers.
Star- are you aware that Trump has stated we have already lost the trade war?? Well, he did.
Without a doubt prices will go up for us in the US and what will this prove in the end? FFS you have no clue of which you speak, stick to the banjo.
Okay I’ll try to do this using only small words. The key to a prosperous society is abundant employment and a low cost of living. the things most people spend most of their money on, food, energy, and housing, are all massively government-subsidized and cartelized by the banks. So you overpay for those things. Your discretionary income stuff, it could be more expensive and it would hardly matter to you. Jim’s crying for the soybean farmers. I’ve got news for you, bubba. If your cost of living is going to go down, somebody’s going to have to make less money. Might as well be Monsanto and ADM. Jim, let’s say the price of your house dropped 50%. and let’s say they cut your paycheck 50%. And the price of essentials dropped 50%. You would be fine. Because everything would all be relative. your paycheck could still buy the same amount of house and essential stuff to live. The rest almost doesn’t matter. Deflation would be the best case scenario common I’ve argued on these pages for 5 years, it’s coming. the only ones that hurts, are the people holding paper, like the banks in 2008. So think of it this way period instead of a crash, we get a gradual decline in everything. what will your city do when your house value drops 50%? they’re going to have to renegotiate those salaries and pensions, huh? Short of a bailout, those Banks and holding companies that hold all the mortgages are going to have some wiggling to do. And that’s a good thing. If your house drops in value 50%, what’s that going to do to your property taxes and insurance? They’re going to go down a lot. More cost of living, to your benefit. The next few years are going to be awesome.
“I already provided you the price increases for oil and food since Trump has been president.” I would never argue with your ability to accurately demonstrate what has happened in the recent past. you’re one of the best in the business at that in my opinion. that’s not something I really spend my time thinking about. My job is to look around the corner, that’s what I do all day everyday, steer into the future. Anon tries to explain it above, what happened in the last 24 months doesn’t mean a thing about what’s going to happen in the next 24 months.
The next few years are going to be a steaming pile of shit.
How many folks have mortgages? Tell them how good they will have it if wages drop. Tell the farmers how good it will be.
The most successful nations do not have a low cost of living. That has never happened to my knowledge. Enlighten me if you can.
LLpoh
I have been dealing with nitwits all day long. It’s time for you to take over the night shift. Smokey must be rolling over in his grave with the level of discourse on TBP today.
Free fall speed.
Llpoh, Don’t start trying to tell me how farming works, that’s how I make a large part of my income. You’re missing something. Matter of fact, you’re missing a lot of things. Prices go up, prices go down, it’s part of the deal. And almost anybody who survives and does well understands that. Again, there is no such thing as a small soybean farmer, hasn’t been in a long time. we sell 12 billion a year in soybeans to China. That’s next to nothing in dollar terms. But their livestock industry would fold without that. They have no arable land comprable to their population. Most countries are in that jam. We are the breadbasket to the world. Watch how this plays out, it’s not going to take a long time. And about those mortgages? Yes, and an awful lot of them are going to have to be renegotiated. Should have happened in 2008 on a much larger scale than it did. and that would be good for millions of homeowners. And savers. Because if interest rates rise, people can get paid a little bit on their savings again. And if house prices drop, interest rates can rise. Free money has distorted a lot of things
The best example I can give you would it be a nation, it would be a state. Florida, the one I live in. I’ve been all around the United States and I know people in every region of the country, and I can tell you this, we had it better than anybody that I know of. Prior to Clinton our cost structure was ridiculously cheap. if you ever saw one of those median income things, we look like poor coal miners or something. But we lived like kings. Because our cost of living was so low. Our tax structure is still incredibly low. No state income tax, and the densely urban county that I live in has a sales tax of 6%. we have probably the cheapest electricity rates in the country, along with probably the best weather. No winter weather means our roads and vehicles don’t get beat up, we don’t have potholes. so what I know what I speak of from experience. When I say a prosperous society, I mean one that’s not so stratified. Everybody can go out there and get there what they need with a little effort. We never had beggars. We never had homeless.
So, what you are saying is that you have no examples. As I thought. Because what you claim simply does not exist. High standard of living = high cost of living.
Re farming, I know little about growing soybeans. I know a shit load about how supply and demand works. And I damn sure know that when gluts come, they are replaced by an overshoot in supply reduction, as everyone scrambles to offload capacity. And that will happen with soybeans.
And overheads have nothing to do with large or small. Overheads are fixed cost. A company has $100 overheads, and 100 tons of product. That product goes down to 50 tons. Overhead per ton goes from $1 to $2, and relative prces have to go up.
China will source soybeans elsewhere, in the longer term, if the trade war continues. The US is not the largest supplier of soybeans to China. That would be Brazil. Who are now jumping with joy. Yep, always smart to empower and enrich the competition, as the US just did with Brazil.
Other markets will also jump in, to replace the volume lost by the US. International soybean prices will rise, immediately, while local prices will crater, then rise.
There is not necessarily a quick replacement market for all those soybeans.
Btw – sales were $14 billion in 2016.
All this shit will add up. None of it will be good for prices.
Llpoh debating starfcker
Another little tidbit.
$14 billion represents around $7000 for each and every one of the two million people who work in agriculture.
Let that fucking sink in a minute. If all of the Chinese sales dry up, there will be a reduction equivalent to as much as $7000 in sales on average for every person who works in ag.
Gee, and star does not give a shit about that. Wonder how many jobs will be lost by that?
Not a problem. MAGA! No matter what it costs in human misery.
And btw, did banks negotiate mortages down en masse the last crisis? Umm, no. And do you think they would do it this time? Umm, no. Will not happen.
You’re off your fucking rocker. Are you smoking crack?
Home prices already dropped by 50% from 2005 through 2011. Property taxes went up. Insurance went up. Millions were kicked out into the street in foreclosure. If you think pensions will be renegotiated by corrupt politicians beholden to the unions, you are dumber than a sack of hammers.
You really live in a bizarro world of made up shit.
Go to bed, before you say something even stupider than you’ve already said. If that is possible.
Housing prices vary by market and location. My house has gone up in the ten years since I bought it – at least, if you believe the realtors. I put down a bunch, but the house was worth $180,000 back in 2007. I’ve made a few improvements, the market is rising now and no home (bigger or smaller) than mine in my neighborhood goes for less than $225,000 right now – none are even listed that low. I get offers every week from flippers who want to pay cash so they can flip mine – who knows if they will make money flipping mine or not?
You’re right about the rest though – property taxes have gone up, insurance went up, and I’m damn lucky not to be homeless from job loss at this point. YMMV.
starfcker has a naive concept about how the real world works. He thinks crashing home prices would be wonderful for the average family. Property taxes and home owners insurance never go down. The taxes pay for the schools and have very little relation to home values. Those gold plated teacher pensions must be paid.
Agree with – both of you? Lower housing prices would let the kids get in easier while penalizing the ones who already own. Wife was reading an article about how some millennials are house-shopping and going $30k over their initial budgets, to get in before housing prices go up even more. I’m guessing that’s in Silicon Valley and similar hot-spots, since housing prices are a local market kind of thing. House prices in South Dakota are probably lower (and dropping) than in San Francisco, I’d guess.
If ALL housing rose or fell at the same rate everywhere – maybe it might be fair, but it’s impossible. Human lemmings like to live certain places, so those places seem to go up – until a bust or overcrowding or whatever causes a collapse, rinse & repeat.
I may be on the right side of a house sale for once, we’ll see in December when the kid graduates (hopefully) and we all wind up going wherever he can find a job.
Are you talking to me? I know several people that hardballed the banks and renegotiated their mortgages. I’ve spoken of them on this blog many times. They made out like bandits. It’s a big world out here Jim Bob. A lot of shit happens out here that you don’t read in Jim Grant’s newsletter. And Llpoh, you miss my point entirely. I want prices to go down. Pay attention, I’ve been saying the same thing for 5 years. You keep saying it can’t happen. Watch, it’s fucking happening, in real time, as we speak. I’ve got no problem with the pile on, but I’ve got years of articles and comments on this blog, feel free to go back and find something that I’ve been dead wrong about. Not that you think I’m going to be wrong about in the future, but something I’ve actually wiffed on. Good luck.
Star – it is not happening. Prices up real wages down. Your contention is false, as you well know. Your anecdotes prove nada.
LLPOH, how do you know this – all the way from Australia? Are you perchance relying on government-generated statistics on real wages and prices?
And isn’t the sum total of your life a series of anecdotes?
Keep on though – maybe you’re right. Anecdotes don’t mean anything – until that rattler or black widow or similar critter is in YOUR boot. Then, it becomes real, right? As long as you survive?
It’s pretty fucking basic. Wages have been going up between 2% and 2.7% for the last 10 years. Actual inflation (not the bullshit BLS fake numbers) has been running at better than 5% over those ten years. That means real wages are FALLING. LLPOH has forgotten ten times as much as most of the morons commenting on this site.
James – it is easy to look up prices. Admin relayed several above. You think they lie about prices going up if they are in fact down? Hahaha! They would crow about that. They lie about how little they are up versus the much higher actual numbers.
Plus, you know, I still have US interests. And a brain.
One reason they push inflation up is to erode the value of the debt and unfounded liabilities. As I always said they would.
No Bea. the trade deficit is insanity. The loss of our patent system is insanity. This is how you fix it. is Trump going to break some eggs. Of course. But it needs to be fixed. Trump never said one word about soybeans. so how did he screw anybody? So we can’t fix the trading system because somebody might get singled out by China? Please. And they’re going to end up buying ours anyway, because Brazil can’t produce enough.
If you don’t give a fuck about other business owners then why are you so worked up about the Chinese companies. Your meanderings are all over the place today.
Star – for someone whose life runs on it you sure seem inept. Once again, please give an example of a glut not being followed by an overshoot the other direction.
The farmers did not grow too many soybeans. Trump screwed them. And there will be a reckoning.
“Re farming, I know little about growing soybeans. I know a shit load about how supply and demand works. And I damn sure know that when gluts come, they are replaced by an overshoot in supply reduction, as everyone scrambles to offload capacity. And that will happen with soybeans.” I agree with this totally. My question to you, Llpoh, is why do you care? Isn’t that the way an economy is supposed to work? That’s my understanding of the thing. Everybody jibbers on about free markets and the invisible hand and all that stuff, isn’t that exactly what you’re describing? Yes that is exactly what will happen. And that’s exactly what should happen. It’s called capitalism
Star – it is an artificial screwing. Farmers were minding their own business and got screwed.
That is not how it is supposed to work. At all. Imagine Trump taking all you have at a stroke of a pen. That will be the case for some farmers.
Star- KY has thousands of individual farms who grow soybeans, this will hurt them a great deal. America’s soybean farmers lost 1.72 billion dollars out of their pockets in one day due to this trade war. Please provide any proof of past tariff wars that brought about cheaper products and countrywide prosperity.
This will cause a continued upheaval in the stock market which will if harsh enough, cause a depression. This is insanity Star.
just a thought but have you factored in privately owned central banks?
Look into it
Global cartel spanning the world
Privately Owned Central Banks
I’m just a fucking cook ,but I can see it lol
Who prices what a dollar is worth? Or a peso ? Or a ruble ?
Or any PAPER created outa thin air currency ?
Alex , I will take tangibles for $1000.00
Whatever be well
This was always meant to be. There’s a multi-generational, cyclical pattern to empires, which ends in ruin and debasement, of the culture and economy. Nothing is new under the sun. As a matter of fact, a lot of people in the early 70’s thought it would only take a few short years to get here after Nixon closed the gold window, the fact that it’s taken nearly 50 years, with the help of oil producing countries, China, etc., would have stunned them.
Nonetheless, what are the core American exports?, the things we produce that are the best in the world? Netflix Original Series, dank marijuana, craft beer and leisure services. So the next time you stream Narcos while packing a bowl and opening a Lagunitas, just think “go America!”
In my view, societies always carry the seeds of their own destruction it’s just built into us.
http://hirocker.com/government/why-societies-fail.html
The stuff I write — virtually never on economics — ranges from pretty darn good to BLECH!! Also, ee have so many damned fine original contributors here.
But, I never want to forget it is ADMIN’S ARTICLES (and his great introductory to other folk’s articles) that brings folks to TBP, and keeps them here.
Hey, I just wanted to say a bit more than “great article, Jim”. And it IS a grrrreat article. I’m down to just sometimes watching only Fox and OAN regarding teevee newz …. and it’s all the same fucking shit; “THE ECONOMY IS REALLY DOING GREAT!!!”. (starfcker should get a job there, lol)
Well, it’s so damned nice, wonderful, enlightening, and educational that Admin regales us with truth and facts …. which helps econo-numbskulls like me tremendously!!!!
Jim, maybe you’re getting tired of speaking the truth … but I pray you keep on keeping on as long as you possibly can. You’re a National Treasure.
Stuck
I sure wish these noobs were as perceptive and brilliant as yourself. Can you imagine the thrashing Smokey would have administered to these Trumpeteers and their hero worship.
You are a TBP national treasure and I’m glad you are dipping your toe back into posting again. We missed you.
Admin have you considered moving? I’ve said it before, middle Merica is a safer place. Sell the house, leave the job. The small town schools may even pass your smell test. Nice older two story houses in small town Iowa sell for under 100Gs. Grow a large garden, trade in the commuter car for an old pickup, sit in your car and watch your kids play baseball at the school field. It’s time to sell the old life, Admin. It appears that societal things are going to end badly. Surround yourself with the real dirt people. Tell your kids that you’re going on an adventure, then pull the plug. If it doesn’t heal your spirit, then return to your current way of life. Nothing ventured nothing gained.
We have aging parents to care for. I have obligations. I have a job I need to pay the bills. I’ll move when the time is right. I live in a safe, semi-rural area.
I hear ya. After our parents passed and children left the nest, we set out on an adventure. It was not comfortable to make the changes that we did. We sold years of accumulation, but still kept enough for seed for the next accumulation. Neither of us like crowds, honestly neither of us likes people, so we moved to places where people worked harder for what they had and had less time to complain about the things they didn’t have. All the rabble and distraction that is currently taking place means little to us. We both think that improvement will come only after things fail. We hope for a soft landing but are prepared to get our hands dirty. Our grown children don’t recognize the storm that’s brewing, so we just tell them to watch for the outbreak of chaos and come home then. Thanks for the site Admin, you have my best wishes.
The bonded servitude of the nation’s youth to pay the debts of others is the greatest civil rights abuse of our time.
I agree, and when I prod a baby boomer on this very issue, he or she will invariably say in some way, “we had to work for it, and you have to as well.” And my answer is, really? because as far as I know you were doing blow and having house party orgies on rattan furniture.”
I agree. Every society has an absolute obligation to future generations.
Admins on a friggin roll today!! You go big daddy. Hit these numb nuts with your economic hammer.
#100. There’s that
Twenty higher than your IQ.
But still twenty higher than yours UN.
unsure who said it about Trump being controlled opposition , but it appears correct .
Who was that masked man lol
Just a cook later all
you guys that are arguing about tariffs,why don’t you go to the history books?
didn’t smoot-hawley cause the greatest boom this country has ever seen?
“The consensus view among economists and economic historians is that the passage of the Smoot–Hawley Tariff exacerbated the Great Depression.”
It hit the brakes on the recovery and deepened the crisis, which is what recessions were called before they were called depressions.
“Everybody jibbers on about free markets and the invisible hand and all that stuff, isn’t that exactly what you’re describing? Yes that is exactly what will happen. And that’s exactly what should happen. It’s called capitalism.”
Capitalism is a fancy word for survival of the fittest. If done right, most people would be living in shacks while laboring 15 hours a day for meager wages. The fat cats would be the only ones driving around in fancy autos. They would be the few to fly and then it would be in fancy planes with first class service.
We don’t really have free markets. The market is there to supply money for businesses to run. If done correctly, investors pony up the cash and business carries on. Leaving things to chance is not responsible management and the money center would fold pretty quickly.
One thing I see is that you are looking at the output side of the circuit while LLPOH is looking at the internal operation of the circuitry. You don’t care what kind of music comes out, whether ragtime or a dirge. LLPOH is concerned with the flow of current or currency. When the money flows, business is brisk, when it slows, business is light and everything slows down. Commerce grinds to a halt, prices drop, products disappear from the shelves and folks starve.
What if the Feds crank up the generators so the lines that normally handle 220V are now juiced with 440V. What a party, eh? But wait, we are using up our store of fuel for the generators faster than we can source it. Sorry, can’t slow down now, we have too many commitments. Keep going until we run out of fuel and everything comes to a screeching halt. The last guy that tried to apply the brakes got creamed at re-election time. Sorry, Carter.
Hmm, he got hornswaggled with the hostage crisis and the crashed chopper. There could be something to these multiple jet crashes…
GDP numbers count government spending (waste), so if we had real GDP numbers, they’ve probably been negative since before 9/11.
John Williams of ShadowStats should have The Truth…