Do you agree or disagree?
Likely sequence of events:
1. Bear market
2. Recession
3. Deficits explode
4. Return of ZIRP and QE
5. Dollar tanks
6. Gold soars
7. CPI spikes
8. Long-term rates rise
9. Fed. forced to hike rates during recession
10. A financial crisis without stimulus or bailouts!
Peter Schiff is almost there:
Likely sequence of events:
1. Bear market
2. Recession
3. Massive deflationary depression pattern (as 2008)
4. Dollar rallies for about a year.
5. Deficits explode
6. Return of ZIRP and QE
7. Fed injects the Treasury with direct liquidity.
8. Treasury disperses in trillion dollar increments, funds to all valid social security numbers in a 9th inning deflationary panic.
9. Dollar tanks, due to massive, massive Fed overshoot.
10. Gold soars
11. CPI spikes
12. Long-term rates rise
13. Fed. forced to hike rates during recession
14. A financial crisis without stimulus or bailouts!
15. Tent cities and porridge as people eat bark and steal from each other.
16. Befriend your local warlord now.
4a…Dollar rises, emerging markets collapse, with massive debt defaults worldwide.
I’m my own local Warlord.
Mark-You live in the south where the population is around 50/50 black/white? You better be Rambo.
BL,
That was a tongue in cheek reflex one liner from my heart. I’m a former grunt, my MOS was o331, humped and fought mostly with the M-60. I live on a farm/compound with extensive and serious armed/fighting preps inside a ring of heavily armed neighbors around me in a mostly white small town in the country.
That said, no matter how good you are (in reality not in a keyboard fantasy) anybody can be ambushed or over run by another force anytime under the right situation. I know that from hard and scared experience and from three Purple Hearts.
Rambo was a cartoon…but I actually did some of that M-60, M-14, .45 and frag work in over 30 firefights. Shoot, shot, shit we actually threw rocks at them one night when we ran out of grenades and shot’em when they jumped. If actual war breaks out I’m ready to be my own neighborhood warlord. I have the two most critical preps, combat experience and I’m mentally prepared for the terror, horror and the gore.
I don’t want it, but I’m ready.
PS: If they come out of the two medium sized blue bubbles in my part of the state into the countryside with bad intent they will get slaughtered.
Belt-fed apocalypse.
#11. De-dollarization, the end of the petro-dollar and the Bretton Woods institutions by the BRICS nations and even our allies. Dollar hegemony is not a free market system.
Schiff is ‘bearish’…buy the correction.
Schiff was bearish in 2005/6 as well and he and Bonner and a few others saved me from the massive buzz cut many of the oblivious herd sat still for.
Best to be years early then one day late…especially if you live modest and wealth has never been important…but protecting hard earned ant principle is.
The grasshoppers will all starve…because that is a proverb that rhymes with economic history.
Yep, that’s why Peter Schiff if one person whose advice I follow.
11. Blame it all on Trump
At some point, it’s clear Canada will invade us. Everything else is up in the air.
Canada invades US, boy scout troop repels invasion….
…..close. Girl Scouts repels invasion!
Ladies, Ladies don’t get your Panties in a bunch.
Trump has this under control..
Trust Q….
Trust the Plan!
And be nice to all of us Canucks…
And of course, at some point during or after the interview, he offers to sell you gold in exchange for Federal Reserve Notes. FWIW his outfit is one of the more expensive places to buy gold or silver.
He missed one..civil war. And I am not sure he has got the order right. Gold is surging now
he missed 2, ww3..
Summary: it’s all coming down in the next 10-20 years, with a huge reset of dimensions unknown (assuming America doesn’t start WW3).
None of the above. Peter Schiff is clueless. There’s not going to be any crash. 800 points was a big drop on the stock market when the Dow is at 10 grand. At 25,000, it’s what, 3%? Yawn.
Still not great with maff. Market down 1,800 points in a week.
Do you agree with the great Orange One? Is the Fed too tight with NEGATIVE real rates?
not at all. John Williams pegs real inflation around 6.00% .. perhaps higher. the system falls apart if honest numbers are used
No. I think the great orange one is flapping his jaws. I think he knows that rates have to become somewhat normalized, and that it has to cost money to borrow. Grousing about it while the guy he hand-picked makes it happen is just providing himself a little cover.
Wait, Jim. Be nice. Let’s take a little deeper look at what might be desirable, and why. Let’s talk about mortgage rates. You know I’m an expert (!!!) What if mortgage rates went up to 7%? I think you start fixing lots of things that way. A $200,000 30 year fixed mortgage today at 3.92% is $946 a month. That same mortgage at 7% is $1331. To get that mortgage payment back down to $946, the size of that mortgage would have to drop to $142,000. So what if the value of homes dropped relative to those numbers, what would some of the things that might have to adjust accordingly? To make this easy, I’m just going to use those mortgage number as the price of the house. So if a $200,000 house dropped in value to 142,000, the mortgage holders are going to be under extreme pressure as they were in 2008. Lots of the mortgages are going to be underwater, and should be renegotiated as they should have been in 2008. But the big benefits are you are now only insuring 142,000. You are now only paying taxes on 142,000. So there is now immense pressure on the insurance industry, and immense pressure on local government to rein in runaway costs. Starve the beast, in other words. Both are desirable outcomes from my point of view. There’s more, but that’s a good place to start
Tax selling with tax extension returns due 10-15. Bond sales because with rising rates, longer maturities bought in recent years are underwater. Window dressing by institutions locking in gains. Sector rotation. Selling by insurers to raise cash because this hurricane was max destruction.
The FED is neither too tight or too loose. Rather they should not exist at all or have anything to say about what need to be market discovered rates.
Those Tesla shorts are really getting run over by your soy boy Musk. Good day. Only down 1.8%.
…..you want I should like, ask Q?
Yes, but up 2.32% after hours. WINNING
Dow close today -545.91
#4 isn’t going to happen as long as Trump is president. Although Schiff hasn’t been right on anything in 10 years, maybe he’ll get this one?
I believe mortgage rates hit 5% this week. Those with variables are getting squeezed and potential new buyers are thinking: “Hey let’s wait for the rates to come back down” (not the deadbeats, but normal buyers). Things gonna slow. Cars too. “No problem!” they say. I respond, “It’s the debt, stupid.”
You cant have rising rates and QE at the same time. If the Fed is overpaying for bonds then those bonds will rise in price, and fall in yield. Since we know QE is the solution to the next crisis, we know we wont see rising rates.
I’d throw in economic collapse and a war to distract us.