Jim Rogers is bracing for the worst bear market of his life

Via Business Insider

Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers is bracing for the biggest market downturn in eight decades.

The 80-year-old investor issued the grave warning during a recent RealVision interview. He also cautioned the US dollar’s global dominance is under threat, and higher interest rates will be necessary to rein in soaring prices.

The cofounder of George Soros’ Quantum Fund also slammed US lawmakers for the current debt-ceiling debacle, touted commodities as the best hedges against inflation, and dismissed the idea that governments will embrace bitcoin.

Here are Rogers’ 7 best quotes, lightly edited for length and clarity:

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Bear Market Warning: 3 Ways to Protect Your Savings

Via Birch Gold Group

Bear Market Warning: 3 Ways to Protect Your Savings

From Peter Reagan

If you’re nearing retirement age, or you’re simply considering the best ways to ride out the storm savaging the financial markets this year, then you’re not alone.

Millions of Americans are frantically trying to preserve as much of their hard-earned nest egg as possible. Especially in the face of persistently raging inflation, rising rates, and a slowing economy.

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QOTD: HOW MUCH FURTHER WILL THE STOCK MARKET FALL?

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EPIC CRASH AFTER 2022 SUPER BUBBLE (Stocks, RE, Bonds & Commodities) S&P 500 Down to 2,500! - YouTube

Stock Market Crash 2022 | Biggest crash ever?! - Brokerfind

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The stock market entered a bear market this week, with the S&P 500 down 22% from its all-time high. How much further do you think it will fall before it bottoms?

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Both Optimists and Pessimists Make the Same Mistake

From Birch Gold Group

Both Optimists and Pessimists Make the Same Mistake

Market optimists remain convinced that “everything is fine.”

After all, the stock markets keep climbing, the Fed remains optimistic inflation will subside in the near term and supply chain issues will somehow, magically, work themselves out.

One CNBC article published just before October’s inflation numbers even claimed that the stock market “party” would keep going strong, even though inflation came in hotter than expected at 6.2%, yet another increase:

Stocks could take aim at new highs in the week ahead, even as investors face fresh data that could show the highest year-over-year jump in consumer inflation in more than 30 years.

Stocks touched record levels Friday, after a monumental week that included the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it will wind down its bond buying, the first big step away from the easing measures it put in place to fight the pandemic.

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The second wave of a rolling bear market is about to begin, says top forecaster

Via Marketwatch

A recent spate of stock drops, exacerbated by signs of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, is unsettling to say the least. The market selloff of last spring was brief, but brutal.

Our call of the day is from Yves Lamoureux, the president of macroeconomic research firm Lamoureux & Co., who says the second COVID-19 wave is about to usher in another stock pullback

Lamoureux, who correctly predicted a panic event of 2018, originally forecast a three-part rolling bear market up to 2022. In mid-March, he told this column that a market bottom was near, and it arrived a few days later on March 23 — the S&P 500 SPX, -2.37% has since recovered 44%. That was Part 1.

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Stocks will revisit their coronavirus crash low, and here’s when to expect it

Guest Post by Mark Hulbert

Is the great coronavirus bear market of 2020 now history? Many exuberant bulls would have you believe that it is, since the S&P 500 SPX, +1.44% is now more than 20% higher than its mid-March low. That satisfies the semi-official definition of a bull market.

So in that narrow sense, the bulls are right. But in a broader sense, I consider their arguments to be a triumph of hope over experience. If by definition we’re in a new bull market, the question we should be asking is different: Will the stock market hit a new low later this year, lower than where it stood at the March low?

I’m convinced the answer is “yes.” My study of past bear markets revealed a number of themes, each of which points to the March low being broken in coming weeks or months.

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WHAT IF?

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles MacKay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

Jim Rogers Warns: “Worst Bear Market” Is Coming

Via Money And Markets,

On a recent call with ETMarkets.com, no-nonsense economic guru Jim Rogers restated his concern that a bear market was on the way, and investors should be on the lookout for small signs to avoid another crisis like 2008.

Although Rogers could not give a timeline for the bear market to arrive, he did say that it will be the “worst in my lifetime,” a prediction he’s stuck by for a while now, and the key to spotting a market correction lies within smaller markets.

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For The Average Investor, The Next Bear Market Will Likely Be The Last

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Just recently Anna-Louise Jackson published an interesting article asking if “The Financial Crisis” still haunted your investing. To wit:

“This month marks the 10-year anniversary of the current bull market’s beginnings. Yet, many Americans remain reluctant to invest in the stock market, a scary hangover from the 2007-09 recession.

From October 2007 to March 2009, the S&P 500 plummeted nearly 57% and it took more than five years for the index to recover. But the share of Americans with money invested in the stock market still hasn’t returned to pre-recession levels, according to various studies.

In 2018, a Gallup Poll survey found 55% of respondents were invested in stocks or stock funds, either personally or jointly with a spouse, down from 65% in 2007. Among those younger than 35, the drop-off is especially pronounced: An average of 38% of the youngest Americans owned stocks from 2008 to 2018, down from 52% in the 2006-2007 period.”

The rest of the article is the typical pedestrian advice of accepting that bear markets happen, ride it out, and hope for the best. (Read this for why you shouldn’t.)

What Anna missed was the most crucial aspect of what is happening to the relationship between individuals and Wall Street.

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Bull Trap

Authored by Sven Henrich via NorthmanTrader.com,

The bulls are back. $SPX up nearly 8% in January and nearly 14% off of the December lows. What slowing global growth? What reduced earnings expectations? Trade wars? Who cares. It’ll all sort itself out, all that matters was the Fed caving in spectacular fashion laying the foundation for the big bull case. The central bank 2 step is back: Dovish + dovish = nothing but higher prices. The lows are in, what else can I buy? This pretty much sums up current sentiment.

And so goes the familiar script during emerging bear markets, a general sense of relief that the lows are in and a return of optimism and greed after an aggressive counter rally following an initial scary drop. Long forgotten are the December lows after a torrent consecutive 6 weeks of higher prices.

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BEARS GET AN EARLY CHRISTMAS PRESENT

Via Zero Hedge

The Longest Bull Market In History Is Over – S&P Enters Bear Market

The S&P crashed below its bear market level of 2352.7 – the lowest since April 2017 – ending the longest bull market in history

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-12-24_10-00-07.jpg?itok=OqVbsMNu

This is the worst December for the S&P 500 since The Great Depression (and there are still a few more days left)…

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QUOTES OF THE DAY

“We’re in the most economically disruptive period since the 1880s and there’s been no bankruptcies. As quantitative easing turns to quantitative tightening, all these zombies are going to be exposed.”

Stan Druckenmiller

“The clowns on TV rant about ‘the great macro backdrop and alluring valuations.’ No mention of liquidity as if they don’t know this is the fuel for risk assets. Someone should tell them that the global monetary base began to contract last March and is now running at a -7% YoY rate. The best economy of all time just saw core capex orders decline at a 2.9% annual rate in the three months to October. Imagine what happens when it goes to something less than best…

I love it when people always say I’m always ‘too early’. You can be late to a bull market — it’s an escalator on the way up. You can’t be late to a bear market — because it’s an elevator going straight down.”

David Rosenberg

The next bear market in stocks will spark a retirement crisis

Guest Post by Howard Gold

Almost lost amid the torrent of recent news was a sobering item that will surely have far-reaching consequences.

The U.S. government announced that for the first time since 1982, it is tapping into Social Security trust funds to pay current benefits to recipients and it is dipping into Medicare’s reserves to cover the costs of that program.

The trustees also projected that the trust fund will run out of money by 2034 and that Medicare’s fund for paying costly hospital bills will be depleted by 2026.

That may ultimately force a cowardly Congress to cut benefits, raise taxes, increase the eligibility age, or some combination of the three. For the 52% of Americans who rely on Social Security for more than half their retirement income and the 25% of retirees who get more than 90% of their income from the program, that would be a disaster.

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STUPID IS AS STUPID DOES

If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, don’t read this fact based, reality check article. The level of stupidity engulfing the country has reached epic proportions, as the mainstream fake news networks flog bullshit Russian conspiracy stories, knowing at least 50% of the non-thinking iGadget distracted public believes anything they hear on the boob tube.

This stupendous degree of utter stupidity goes to a new level of idiocy when it comes to the stock market. The rigged fleecing machine known as Wall Street has gone into hyper-drive since futures dropped by 700 points on the night of Trump’s election. An already extremely overvalued market, as measured by every historically accurate valuation metric, soared by 4,000 points from that futures low – over 20% – to an all-time high. Despite dozens of warning signs and the experience of two 40% to 50% crashes in the last fifteen years, lemming like investors are confident the future is so bright they gotta wear shades.

The current bull market is the 2nd longest in history at 8 years. In March of 2009, the S&P 500 bottomed at a fitting level for Wall Street of 666. In a shocking coincidence, it bottomed on the same day Bernanke & Geithner forced the FASB to rollover like mangy dogs and stop enforcing mark to market accounting. Amazingly, when Wall Street banks, along with Fannie and Freddie, could value their toxic assets at whatever they chose, profits surged. The market is now 240% higher.

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